Road to Cheltenham

Rock on Ruby: Will he stay three miles in the World Hurdle?
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Bar for a lusty yell of a performance from the ten-years-young Rock On Ruby to usher in the new racing year, the most significant happenings this week were to be found among the novice divisions.

Ladbrokes World Hurdle
Rather than a seventh whisky or the biting wind, the moment to bring a glisten to the eye on New Year’s Day at Cheltenham was Rock On Ruby’s heart-warming success.

On ground softer than ideal, he turned away the younger, scrappy-jumping and weary-finishing Vaniteux despite conceding 8lb – no mean feat. In doing so, as predicted, he firmly dispatched ideas of missing Cheltenham in favour of Aintree. He boasts an excellent hurdles record there.

Whether he will stay three miles remains open to justifiable question but the 2012 Champion Hurdle hero has earned his right to line up and find out.

Vaniteux’s connections will be counting down the days until he can go chasing now that he’s been shown to lack the class and pace of The New One and the class and stamina of Rock On Ruby.

Instead, watching the replay with a steelier mind, my eye was drawn to Cole Harden and the way he rallied up Cheltenham’s final pitiless hill. It’s hard not to suspect there will be a more brilliant rival to beat him in March but it would be no surprise were he to hit the frame in the World Hurdle.

If you’ve backed Rock On Ruby at huge prices available not long ago, you’ve got a gutsy runner for your money but at current odds I’d rather take the 20/1 about Cole Harden than the remaining 14/1. They raced off the same weight at Cheltenham and a diminishing three lengths separated them at the line.

Beat That’s return to action was similar to that of Briar Hill last month, with the word and the betting both indicating that he would need the run and stable jockey, in this case Barry Geraghty, riding a stablemate instead.

He ran as presaged, running out of puff entering the straight, and is another who would prefer better ground. Pushing him out to 12/1 was an over reaction in such a shallow market.

Silsol’s flirtation with this grade came to an abrupt end, so soon after he’d raised expectations and been re-fitted with the cheekpieces that helped him last season.

It’s possible that Whisper might get an entry here after disappointing on his chase debut – of which more later.

OLBG David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdles
Aurore d’Estruval continues to step into the shoes of Cockney Sparrow, whose death due to colic left quite a hole at John Quinn’s yard. It was a very good effort indeed last Saturday at Sandown to concede 8lb to a progressive runner-up, in ground on which she did not look wholly comfortable.

It was a steady pace and then a sprint in desperate going but the winner still travelled strongly and somehow managed to show flashes of her trademark slick jumping.

Tony McCoy reportedly advised Quinn not to run her again until the Festival, where she will get her preferred ground over this 2m4f trip and have enjoyed plenty of recovery time. He was very positive about her ability in a Racing UK interview with Stewart Machin.

Second-placed Dark Spirit continues to improve and again excelled herself on less favourable terms than had she encountered the winner and third in a handicap.

Third-placed Mischievous Milly was forced to miss last season’s Festival but her form was represented to some degree by runner-up Glen’s Melody, who had twice beaten her, narrowly if somewhat comfortably, earlier on. This was a promising return, with the run clearly needed after 11 months off.

The Wincanton handicap success of Blue Buttons paid a compliment to the best form of Polly Peachum, who gave her 21lb and a beating in November before flopping at Kempton.

Stan James Champion Hurdle
No real news in this division, bar for Ruby Walsh reiterating in his Racing UK column that he won’t decide between Faugheen and Hurricane Fly until he has to and comparing it to the choice he previously had to make between Kauto Star and Denman – which he got wrong.

He’s doubtless mentioned this before but he also wondered whether he rode The Fly too close to the pace in last year’s Champion Hurdle.

Trainer Nicky Henderson reportedly believes Sign Of A Victory still has some potential in this division, especially on good ground, despite an inglorious thumping in the Christmas Hurdle.

Arctic Fire has been trimmed after Pricewise of the Racing Post put him up in his ante-post column for this race.

Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase
The reformed ways of Mr Mole might not yet make him a favourite of McCoy’s but should have removed him from the black list. Bar for getting the third of the Railway fences wrong, he jumped well in victory at Sandown and settled things in an impersonation of a straightforward horse after the last.

However, bossing small (if admittedly select) fields with positive tactics – trainer Paul Nicholls’ transformative advice – is a different test to the hurly burly of the Festival. The Game Spirit at Newbury next month is a good opportunity, but I retain my prejudices about his appetite for Cheltenham.

Champagne Fever has been shortened for this race rather than the Ryanair, having been recommended with those firms offering non-runner-no-bet by at least one tipping column. Entries for this race are announced on Thursday.

Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup
Entries for this race are announced this Thursday, so it was interesting to see Kings Palace, the RSA Chase favourite, introduced and backed in a place for this race. Martin Pipe, father of trainer and successor David, was not averse to running a novice in this race, notably the ill-fated Gloria Victis.

Ryanair Chase
It was good to see Hunt Ball run and jump with his old verve at Cheltenham but his second to Splash Of Ginge put me more in mind of the Topham at Aintree than the Ryanair. Similarly, Caid Du Berlais shaped like the three-mile Festival Handicap might be the best target for him on spring ground.

Entries for this race are also announced this Thursday.

Novice chasers
The most impressive performance of the past week was that of P’tit Zig, who beat Champagne West by six lengths in Cheltenham’s Dipper Novices’ Chase – even though Nicholls believes he wasn’t at his best.

The key moment came approaching the turn for home when Tom O’Brien, on the eventual runner-up, gave his pursuers a challenging over-the-shoulder glance and then pressed for home. P’tit Zig did really well to reel in the leader, then settled matters with an excellent jump at the last and stayed on strongly.

Sam [Twiston-Davies] said he raced lazily, reported Nicholls. He wasn’t as fresh as he has been because this was his fourth run in a short time. I wouldn’t normally have run him, but I wanted to get some experience of Cheltenham into him.

This performance put to bed any lingering thoughts about the Arkle and the 5/1 for the JLT that you can still get in a place or two is entirely fair. A little niggle in my mind is that he does curl his knee a tad but he still managed sixth in last year’s Champion Hurdle and fourth in the Aintree Hurdle on a sound surface efforts that, on the raw figures at least, were up to his then-best.

His time was markedly superior to that of Splash Of Ginge over the same course and distance in the very next race – an admirably cool success for 11th-hour deputy, Jamie Bargary, who stepped in to replace the sadly injured Ryan Hatch minutes beforehand.

That horse also heads for the JLT but with a lot to find on the clock and the ratings with P’tit Zig and others.

The RSA Chase has been pinpointed as Champagne West’s target and he is clearly a very good novice. However, although still more settled than last term, he displayed his old trait of keenness here. I still wonder whether a searching Festival test will see him at his best, but I’m not as sure about that as I was.

As mentioned earlier, Whisper’s much-anticipated chase debut was a damp squib. He didn’t jump well from the outset at Exeter, stumbling at the first and then proving cumbersome or careful. Having started relatively late, you may wonder whether they will persist with the larger obstacles this season.

It’s notable that bookmakers all trimmed Don Poli to 5/1 joint favourite for the RSA this week. He remains favourite for the NH Chase and is best priced at 11/4 with Hills to win any Festival race, but this latest move may indicate the latest reshuffling of horses and targets by trainer Willie Mullins. It might mean Valseur Lido heads to the JLT, but remember a lot can happen to alter minds and plans in all cases between now and the Festival.

Fellow Irish trainer Henry de Bromhead nominated the Arkle as the plan for Sunday’s Naas winner, Sizing Granite. He blamed himself for running the horse too quickly last time out in a Punchestown Grade Two, in which he was already beaten when unseating.

He probably needs a good break between his races,de Bromhead stated. He’ll go there [to Cheltenham] as an outsider but he jumps and he gallops and will appreciate better ground.

The declaration is significant because, of course, de Bromhead knows what it takes to win an Arkle, having done so with subsequent top two-mile chaser Sizing Europe for the same owners in 2010.

Walsh declared himself confused by Blood Cotil, beaten at odds-on in the same race. He pointed out that the horse was badly hampered at the first but also wondered, more ominously, whether he is “one of those horses who is unlucky”. I doubt Walsh believes in unremitting bad luck.

At Plumpton, Grumeti beat the more experienced Chris Pea Green on his third start over fences and qualified for a £60,000 bonus should he win at the Festival. If that is to happen, it will surely be in a handicap and, despite his 2012 Triumph Hurdle third, I prefer him on flat tracks anyway.

Novice hurdlers
There was good news for this column’s ante-post portfolio when L’Ami Serge was as near to impressive as any horse could be on Sandown’s specialist heavy ground last Saturday in winning the Grade One Tolworth Hurdle.

He settled it authoritatively from the second last, pulling 14 lengths clear of Jolly’s Cracked It, and yet he moves as if a sounder surface would inspire a better performance and jumped as if he would rather go left-handed.

Nicky Henderson, his trainer, confessed to being impressed with the victory in his post-race interview with Stewart Machin on Racing UK. He had a good line to the worth of the second’s form and believed his horse would have to step up on what he’d hitherto done. That L’Ami Serge duly did.

Henderson added that the horse won’t run again until Cheltenham (although the scourge of the racecourse gallop was mooted), enabling him to have a break after two races on testing ground. He described him as very exciting and suggested that his presence might frustrate plans to run a Simon Munir-owned four-year-old in the Sky Bet Supreme (of which more later).

All in all, it was hugely encouraging. L’Ami Serge now heads the market with our other ante-post Supreme bet, Douvan, at 5/1. That horse is due to run at Punchestown this Saturday.

There was a sense in the post-race comments of Harry Fry, trainer of Jolly’s Cracked It, that he had hoped for more but believed his horse was beaten on merit. Albeit put in his place for any Supreme ambitions, the runner-up is still improving and can pick up a good handicap.

The yard has a strong hand of novice hurdlers this season. Fletcher’s Flyer is another who continues to improve, winning at Wincanton last Saturday, and runs as though the Albert Bartlett trip will be right up his street. He needs to prove himself on a sound surface for Cheltenham but the next stop is likely to be Haydock.

Fry has, however, named that same Festival race as the target for Thomas Brown, who showed tenacity to wrestle back the lead from Robinsfirth and then kept finding more when challenged at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.

The winner is very much bred for the projected longer trip, was conceding 4lb to the second and both pulled away from a fair horse in Zeroeshadesofgrey.

Thomas Brown’s win was one of many boosts to Out Sam’s Newbury form, if taken literally, because the third and fourth also won over the festive period. Out Sam’s stablemate and fellow Newbury victor, Different Gravey, caught the eye in the Cheltenham race as capable of better. While we’re on the subject of Henderson-trained horses, he has reportedly said that Vyta Du Roc will run in the Albert Bartlett.

Over in Ireland, there was a fascinating Grade One at Naas on Sunday when 33/1 outsider and supposed Gigginstown Stud Third string, McKinley, beat his more heralded stablemate Tell Us More with Free Expression back in a close third.

Mullins had stressed beforehand that the winner had improved and suggested the horse might have hit a nerve when pulling up early on, the rider feeling he had gone wrong, in his previous outing.

There was no fluke about his success here, as he wore down the winner after being mildly outpaced and despite getting a bump after the last. However, that was his eighth start over hurdles whereas Tell Us More was only having his second and his third under Rules full stop.

The runner-up landed unbalanced over the last, having jumped well in the rest of the race, and should by no means be written off. Whether he’ll be deemed ready for the task of the Festival this season is perhaps another matter.

I wouldn’t be in a hurry to dismiss Free Expression yet either. He also landed unbalanced at the second last, causing him to hang left into a pocket that he remained stuck in – albeit that he probably didn’t have to pace to do anything about it in these circumstances. He looks the type to bear in mind for three miles, although he may well need some cut in the ground.

Also in Ireland, Roi Des Francs won a 2m6f Thurles maiden hurdle on his second attempt and will be entered in the Neptune and Albert Bartlett. But the fact that chasing, his size and a preference for cut have all been mentioned might make you wonder whether he’s the sort that Gigginstown ducks the Festival with at this stage.

Back in Britain, one performance that might go under the radar was the Philip Hobbs-trained War Sound’s racecourse debut victory at Exeter on New Year’s Day. He jumped well, travelled strongly and galloped on powerfully at the finish, shaping as though he would improve for further and probably for a fence. He was a different gear to his field here.

His dam was a half-sister to notable chasers from his yard, Planet Of Sound and From Dawn To Dusk, and he is a horse to bear in mind for the short and medium term.


Juvenile hurdlers
It was a quiet week in this division. Arabian Revolution was a different class to those he beat at Sandown last Saturday, but that’s probably not saying much.

He may well have won (on the bit) despite the ground and certainly jumped soundly; McCoy reported that he seemed to enjoy the discipline. However, he also lost his way on the Flat for Godolphin, with headgear quickly applied.

In news from off the track, a juvenile with a huge reputation in France, Bonito Du Berlais, has been backed in some places for the Triumph. He has won his last five starts, the most impressive of which was his latest 12-length saunter in an Auteuil Grade One under a very confident ride from Mathieu Carroux.

You can watch it here, in a clip that also contains the welcome sound of a woman sharing in commentary duties. I know! A woman! And a French one at that! Check the year if you’re feeling apoplexy coming on.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDxdbUl4qAY

Impressive, wasn’t it? But do beware: all known utterances suggest that, even though Bonito Du Berlais is owned by British-based Jim Gordon, he will do his racing in France at the behest of his breeder.

Owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede are enjoying a fine season and are particularly flush with juvenile hurdlers, whose running plans are now known.

Racing manager Anthony Bromley reported that Peace And Co runs at Cheltenham at the end of this month, whereas Vercingetorix contests an Irish Grade One and Bristol De Mai goes to either Haydock or Huntingdon.

Mullins has stated that Kalkir still remains on course for the Triumph despite his defeat last time.