Saturday Special..

Hola , welkommen and Salut...after yesterdays undeniable success at Wolverhampton ( 11 races bet and made profit on 10 ) i thought instead of focusing on the heady action at Sandown n Chepstow i would instead cast my analytical eye over Lingers ;-)...Remember its not just about the winners , its all about the profit, trade when and where possible , you trade , you win...simples....if you want help or advice with trading then feel to ask....C'mon Plaw ( Average Guy ) ..lets spin that roll ;-)....

LINGERS

RACE 1 :
A very tight claimer to start the day off is not the most conducive way to start a day, any day let alone a busy saturday....but the stats say RESPLENDENT ALPHA ( 7.4 ) is the EW choice for connoisseurs personally im not totally convinced but it does have the form in the book that allows it to be competitive in this company and with the likes of Officer in Command and Castle Myth against its not one to go heavy on...Just remember to trade and hedge its the only way...
RESULT : 2nd @ 9.8 ( hit 1.50 in running ) as it run on late and got caught in traffic, good start and nice profit.

RACE 2:
A quandary of a maiden where Too Difficult looks a sure fire winner and with expected improvement to come ( as they do with all Baldings from 1st to 2nd run ) this will surely be bang there however MJ ( has won this race in 2010 & 2011 ) has a very well bred sort in ARYAL ( 5.0 ) a lovely bay colt from Singspiel that cost £150,000 in the sales ring and is related to some very useful sorts , this could easily be good enough fto but be aware MJ's runners often win on the bridle fto or are unplaced...so if your backing this on its own think about putting in some place lay cover...because with 2 other useful looking newcomers and Gertrude Versed in the line up this could be a tad tasty...
RESULT: 2nd @ 4.76 ( hit 1.05 in running ) made profit on the win but lost on the 2.0 place lay so broke even on the race.

RACE 3:
Here we have a trappy small field sprint where they all have a chance of sorts and none can be confidently ruled out , our man Winston rides Pixilated ( 5.0 ) in this and like i have stated it has every chance as Modern Lady seems slightly outclassed ( if i was being fussy ) , and Laylas Oasis and Golden Flower have little to separate them ( Archie Stevens is a non runner ) and at 5.0 in a race in which it has on paper at least an even money chance of winning ( not correct maths i know but its from a stat point of view , how can it be an even money chance against 3 other equally worthwhile opponents , this is true however from the stat perspective it can beat any of these on its day in a h2h scenario thus its an even money chance to win...science bullshit, dont get tied up with it )....i am quite happy rowing a few bob win on this..
RESULT :Unplaced , very poor showing.

RACE 4:
Too tough a race to call so i wont but if i was having a go in this it would probably be an EW on COLOURBEARER ( 5.1 ).
RESULT :4th @ 5.50 ( hit 3.60 in running )

RACE 5:
Div 2 of the shizz above and again a No Play from me but my spec punt would be on CATALINAS DIAMOND after a good 2nd over CD a few days ago.

RESULT : Unplaced @ 5.15 ( hit 3.0 in running )



RACE 6:
Now this is more like a proper race with some very decent sorts racing for a tasty looking £12k first prize...and WHAILEYY looks a very decent sort in deed , on the upgrade, has won in this grade with ease before with its last 6 runs all being in Group ( Class ) 2's and against some very speedy types , on the whole this field contains some above average sorts but only in this realm we are not talking about runners that will be lining up in the Nunthorpe...except Whaileyy could easily fill the void in between this was only a nk and a sh away from winning a big sprint at Ascot a few months ago so has ability for sure, Botti has his lot in fine fettle although im a tad confused over the jockey booking and selection but hey ho...im all over this although i will be disappointed if i cant get better than 4.2 come race time...i wanna smash this EW not nibble a win...
RESULT : 2nd @ 3.68 ( hit 1.21 in running just failed to peg back the leader running on fiercely at the end ) good profit on the race as i hammered the place and traded the win... 

RACE 7 :
This another reasonable in quality and although we have no stats for this i do like the look of the once rated 102 ( last year was 100+ ) LOWTHER that has now dropped to 78 and absolutely bolted up over CD lto another repeat performance and it wins..no problem...but i want 3.0+ before i get my wallet out...so i will wait until 5 mins before race then decide.
RESULT : 2nd @ 3.05 ( hit 1.30 in running ) and another profit race but just couldnt catch the leader , went a bit wide on the bed and the 2 lengths lost was its downfall.

RACE 8:
And we finish the day off with a ridic hard Hcap which only the Radio Rentals among us will enjoy and participate...Personally i feel SUNSHINE ALWAYS as a EW punt is the way forward but again im not over enamored with the current 6.0 ( hit 7.6 earlier ) so i will bite the bullet and wait as i was looking for nearer 8.0 tbh....
RESULT : 3rd @ 6.17 ( hit 2.0 in running ) and More profit to finish the day....overall i would say today has been rock solid...;-)
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For an AW meeting this is probably as good as it gets, some fair sorts on show and some decent bets to be had....Have a great day all.....Cya on Monday.... ( maybe )...;-)x
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**For Trish , Here are some examples for today , 

As you can see they alter slightly this is due to the strength behind the win selection , if i am strong on the bet i will only go for a break even green which gets a better return at a more attainable point however if the selection is lesser fancied i am happy to take a lower profit on the win part but a bigger profit on the lay part , this is sometimes harder to get but is a more profitable solution in the long term.
If the price allows i will also implement a double dob  which is where the first trade grants a green and the second is a bigger profit but this is not always possible as only certain types of runners attract these options.
When trading i feel it is best to set a Standard required profit out in you mind and for your books, ie: set a goal for making £10 per race , how much are you happy making £50 a day , £100 a day etc..and stick to it , what i will strongly advise against is mixing up trades with bets, you will end up winning small and losing big, if you want to gamble then do just that, if you want to make good steady long term profits trading you must be disciplined enough to do just that , then you can do what i do and that is to build /save up a 2nd bank which is just for gambling and risk taking , you must build this from scratch and you must never use your trading account to fund any other bets , just my thoughts and ideas...feel free to do whatever tho, i will try to set out my idea of the trade prices for future cards and advisories similar to what i was doing on PTS before, so you can set your bet , place your trade and go to work, also if you have any bets you would like me to advise on, just get in touch, hope this has helped a bit x.

McCoys thoughts on his mount in the Welsh National...

Tony McCoy believes that the bookmakers are too short with their quotes about Teaforthree ahead of the Welsh National.

The nine-year-old, who will be partnered by the champion jockey, has been well supported during the ante-post markets, and is set to be sent off a short priced favourite on Saturday afternoon.

McCoy, while confident of his chances in the 18-runner heat, told At The Races: "With the conditions as they are, it's going to be wide-open. Monbeg Dude is a horse who I always thought might be suited by a real test, there's Viking Blond, Paul's horse Michel Le Bon - you can make cases for a lot of them.

"I've seen that at the moment he's about 3/1 and then it's 7/1 bar and I just don't think there is that big a gap between him and the rest of them, particularly with the ground the way it is.

"Last year he was being aimed at the Hennessy and the Welsh National came as more of an after-thought but this time his season has been very much geared around the Welsh National.

"The extra couple of weeks after Newbury might have helped him and I hope he has got a good chance. He's a pretty easy horse, touch wood he jumps well and he's a pretty handy sort.

"He doesn't have to lead but we'll pop out handy and see how the race is run. Stamina is going to come into play and hopefully he's got more than the rest of them."

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And Alex Hammonds thoughts...

The Welsh National takes place on Saturday after the original fixture was abandoned due to waterlogging.

Conditions are set to be heavy and this will be a real war of attrition over three miles and five-and-a-half furlongs on testing ground.

When I previewed this race originally I really fancied Teaforthree and that's still the case, despite his relatively short price (3/1 favourite); he won the four-miler at the Cheltenham festival and has been geared towards this race this season.

Teaforthree: 

He won his novice chase at this track on heavy ground so hopefully the conditions shouldn't phase him, and if he does win this for Rebecca Curtis he would become the first Welsh trained horse to win the Welsh National since 1965.

AP McCoy is still able to ride, but luckily for him the weights aren't as low as they could have been before so he won't have to waste to ride him.

Teaforthree won the four-miler at the Cheltenham festival and has been geared towards the Welsh National this season.

The yard had been forced to shut down after an outbreak of equine herpes, which claimed the lives of several horses, but they are back in business now and need some good luck.What a result it would be for Victor Dartnall if his Giles Cross (9/1) could finally get his head in front in this race. He has finished second for the past two seasons and would be a boost for the stable if he could win.

The horse certainly won't mind a slog in this ground and he should run well once again and Victor told me he was very happy with the horse when I spoke to him on Sky Sports News on Friday.

The only note of caution was that as the horse hadn't run since April you couldn't be confident, but he sounded hopeful. One thing he did tell me is that he fancies the chances of Seebright in the bumper at Chepstow, so don't say you weren't told!

Paul Nicholls has Michel le Bon (7/1) in the contest. He ran an encouraging race in the Badger Ales at Wincanton last time out, but he is unproven on ground like this. He has only had four starts over fences and his trainer has said in the past he wouldn't mind soft ground, but this is likely to be extremely testing.

Viking Blond is also a 7/1 shot for Nigel Twiston-Davies. He has put up a couple of encouraging efforts and could still be a progressive staying chaser at the age of eight, and he carries a nice racing weight.

Sona Sasta (7/1) is one of two in this for David Pipe. He only has 10 stone and then his amateur jockey takes a further seven pounds off, so he will think he's running loose. Conditions suit him and he comes here having won a handicap chase in similar conditions over three miles at this track last time out.

Master Overseer is Pipe's other runner (14/1) and he has plenty in his favour, too. The ground can't be testing enough and the trip can't be far enough, perfect ingredients for this contest!

Alfie Spinner and Universal Soldier are both 12/1 shots but be aware that the former has Sandown's 3.40 as his first preference. Universal Soldier is also entered in that Sandown contest, but this is his first option.

Charlie Longsdon is really making a name for himself amongst the training ranks and this horse can go well for the stable, too. He has blinkers on for the first time just to help him travel and conditions are ideal. He could run into a place and is an each way price.

Soll could also be one for each way punters. Jo Hughes trains this horse and she has her team in decent form, while this horse should be sharper for his reappearance run in the Hennessy where he finished eighth behind Bobs Worth.

That was his first run for the trainer having spent his formative years with Willie Mullins for whom he showed decent promise. He can't be written off and at 12/1 appeals slightly to finish in the frame.

I'm afraid that time hasn't dimmed my enthusiasm for Teaforthree and he looks tailor made for this type of race. I think he can fly the flag for Wales.

C'mon Everyone..

Join Our Sat Tipping comp , Pro or Free at HCE its a good fun comp with plenty of entrants and prizes , get Involved.

Friday at Wolves..

Hi all ,  late night posting whilst i review some races has led me to thinking about tmrw's card at Wolves << ;-)...And those of you that follow racing closely will know that a handful of Jockeys do seem to be rather more competent on the AW and a few trainers like to bang a few winners in over the winter months , Here at Wolverhampton i know Dalgleish likes to find a winner or two and Winston knows how to ride this track so they are a couple i want to highlight along with one or two others and dont forget as Wolves is lending a helping hand to other courses affected by poor weather this will be another double bubble card....
So lets have a look at a few race by race and see if there are any bets worth taking on....

Race 1.
The combo of Dalgleish and Winston get together here for a go with Wicked Spirit a previous Course winner over 1m4f ( this is 1m ) and having its first run for 234 days in what looks like a very tough race to call with at least 5 having solid claims but looking like an outsider at 19.5 this could easily slip into a place with On the Hoof  ( 3 time Course and 2 time CD winner ) looking like the one to beat although i am expecting a better run from Final Drive in this after being well supported lto and playing up before the start.
Wicked Spirit is worth a small speculative EW punt as its been dropped in trip and could try and make a proper race of it.
RESULT : Spencer / Ryan combo win with Botti 2nd and i not a word from Guy ( disappointing ) Wicked Spirit was stone last lol and On the Hoof was soundly beaten , Fair race with a decent enough winner.

Race 2.
Winston rides Georgebernardshaw here a formerly 111 rated listed winner when with A O Brien but that was what seems a very long 5 years ago and this has now dropped down to a platers rating of just 56 and still not really showing anything and weakening tamely i feel this can be passed over as it has shown nothing yet to tempt where as NORTH CENTRAL running for the in form Carr / Sullivan combo does interest me at what seems a very generous 14.0 this imo is well worth an EW wager , CD winner with some form to work from in a field that looks very modest and inconsistent , this i like.
RESULT: 3rd @ 29.0 ( hit 3.20 in running ) & ( 7.41 Place  ) so a decent win there , gotta be happy with that ;-)

Race 3.
Nothing here to interest me.

Race 4.
No stat runners here but i do quite like the look of DE RIGUEUR this Montijeu Gelding is bang in form, is well in weight wise and comes from the Botti yard that are always worth a look as they never really blow hot n cold....and the Jockey Seb Sanders has won twice from his last 3 rides here so can run the track well.
RESULT : 1st @ 2.04

Race 5.
Winston again is saddled with a tough ride, a horse not raced for 3 years and is probably just out for a spin and a pipe opener before resuming a career in the NH game.
ROYAL SEA has found some spirit and some good form at long last and still trailing at the bottom of the Hcap has to be of interest , when horses are running solid and consistently well they are sometimes well worth sticking with and this falls into that cat.
RESULT : Unplaced @ 5.93 but ran well enough to hit 2.22 in running before weakening away in the final 2f - Easy Trade ( those of you that know me , know i trade ;-) )..Solid profit.

Race 6.
Nothing really to report on here although MISS BUNTER does look an obvious selection after improving heaps to win a Maiden then a Hcap and still looks on the upgrade.
RESULT : 1st @ 3.31

Race 7.
And its not getting any easier for Winston as he finds himself saddled with the out of sorts PRECISION STRIKE a horse with ability but no heart and has been running very tardily of late however in such a dire race at 21.0 i think this is worth a small EW punt as this is eminently winnable.
RESULT : Unplaced @ 12.36 but hit 5.10 in running so another easy trade ;-)

Race 8.
While Winston nips into the canteen for some lunch ( long day ) Dalgleish turns to friend Joe Fanning for the ride on Blown It a horse with good CD form, solid recent form but a tad high in the weights , i would say this has a fair chance and at 16.0 does offer the punter a fighting chance and good " value " however LE TOREADOR now dropped into Claiming grade should prove totally different class this has raced in some very competitive races in the last 12 months+ and had a recent spin over CD to sharpen him up and at 5.3 does look a cracking EW punt although Drawnfromthepast will be a tough nut to crack.
RESULT : Well the early 5.30 looks a great bet now as it went off at 3.75 ( Traded at 1.10 in running ) and just got pipped on the line coming 2nd but another good solid profit race ;-).

Race 9.
This is a stat race i like and this concerns Mick Appleby / Mullen a partnership that do very together and they are on REACTION a horse that stays the trip and is well weighted given the context of the race and rivals , this is a cracking bet at 3.3+...
RESULT : Unplaced at 3.94 and only just scraped 2.32 although 2.92 was where the money was which was above my trade point, so a disappointing race and a loss on this one.

Race 10.
Tough Race, no stats and a punters nightmare....one to watch.

Race 11.
Dalgleish and Fanning have Findhornbay here but it offers no real interest tbh but the M Easterby trained IGGY does , he does quite well here and this canny trainer sends a few winners out and rarely leaves empty handed and with the in form J Sullivan riding this is worth some small EW interest at 12.0+...
RESULT : Again another race where the early price of 12.0 looked good as it went off at 7.40 and was very narrowly beaten into 2nd by the 7/4F...another close call but another easy race to trade and more profit.

Race 12.
Quite a few Stats to read into here but the one i like is the Jolly from Botti and ridden by Seb Sanders ( could be a nice double ) SOLAR DEITY which is going for the Hat Trick after winning in higher grade hcaps and has both literal and lateral form lines giving him the beating of most of the field if not all...this is a rock solid bet although the current 2.32 is a wee bit skinny so i will wait for more meat before plunging in.
RESULT : 3rd ( @ 2.17  hit 1.48 in running ) , never really going that well and was hard at it before the bend , looked very one paced, glad i left this alone tbh .

Race 13.
Winston rides Moheebb here another troubled gelding and another with ability and if on a going day could easily trouble the judge and being the outsider at 19.5 ( will or should go higher )  you are getting enough of a price to have a " flutter " but imo its not worth even a small EW investment as its just too damn competitive and i think this could be a winner for the Dalgleish team at last in ARAGORN ROUGE which is a decent enough beast with good CD winning form, is currently in form and ticks all the boxes, this i feel has to go close today although 5.5 is probably as low as im prepared to go.
RESULT : And yet another 3rd....

Race 14.
Nothing happening here for me or the stats....

Race 15.
And a very disappointing finale with nothing to offer....

Its gonna be a hard long day for most but there is just enough to keep the mops happy......Good Luck Players...Off to sort me PTS races out now...;-))

Hola

Happy Thursday everyone , yesterday went ok ( ish ) nailed a 16.0 winner form the 4 advised selections and the win double threw up 2 winners so a nice bit of profit as Lucinda did very well at Ayr adding more but there were a few losses Hidden Strike the EW Nap come 5th and a few of the others disappointed but we made a deece profit overall which is really all that matters ;-)..
So onto today..is there anything else?...

AYR : This could well be another day to look at Lucinda's runners but not in the first as i feel HARRY THE LEMMON is a good thing here , has rock solid recent form ( easily the best on offer )  has no probs with trip or ground , Trainer/Jockey combo both good so ticks all my boxes for this , short price but a winner is a winner and i will be surprised if this cant beat these.
REAL MILAN should win the 2nd race at short odds as this looks different gravy to the remainder in this small field ( nice double there me thinks ) , RADHARC NA MARA @ 10.5 is a stone cold mega max LAY , yes i know its a big price but firstly it will not win , no fucking chance whatsoever and secondly it will imo go off at a bigger price allowing you to trade out for an easy profit.
I do feel BENE LAD is a cracking EW bet in a very poor looking contest the old boy was going well lto until tiring 2 out behind Talking Sence ( ran well yesterday ) this 2f shorter trip against exposed or poor looking rivals could be the get go for a return to the winners enclosure, must surely go close against these.

LINGFIELD : LIBERAL LADY is the first onto my EW list it quite often pays to follow sprinters that are in form and after a hard fought all the way CD win again with Fanning riding against modest opposition this must surely have every chance of doubling up and the rest of this card is just simply fucking shit.

Over in Ireland in the first im quite sweet on SIZING KIMBERLITE from the family of Cab On Target ( very useful sort on his day mainly against his nemesis Morley Street ) this cost £62,000 and is bred to be very useful in this sphere and this truth be told is a very modest start with only Kathleen Francis or Stop the Clock likely to trouble with improvement expected.
CALL THE POLICE should return to winning ways in the 2nd race ( Treble ) and CADSPEED again at very short odds should win the next as this was well clear when falling at the last lto although GALLIANA does offer rather tempting Place prospects and at the prices i think a place on that is probably a safer bet.
Finally and yet rather predictably another very short priced runner should hose up and that is BRIAR HILL a horse that cost Graham Wylie £100,000 and is expected to be festival class will surely start to return some of that expense.

Wolverhampton is hosting a pile of turdalicious shizzle with not one single race or entry interesting me at all...

So in summary i would say...

1.HARRY THE LEMMON ( NAP )
2.REAL MILAN
3.SIZING KIMBERLITE
4.CADSPEED
5.BRIAR HILL
WIN CANADIAN AND ACCA

&

BENE LAD / LIBERAL LADY : EW DOUBLE

And ive already highlighted my LOTD so take it easy is my advice , the favs will dominate today i feel and its just not a day to get to heavily involved in.

Morning World...

Hi Guys , the posts for January will be less frequent as i concentrate on PTS this month , i will still ( hopefully ) get a decent card out for Saturdays but thru the week it will be thin pickings as i concentrate on the investor accounts and work on some new statistical angles , i may if time allows pop an EW Double up each day for the vets.
I will however respond to any requests made or advice asked be it race or meeting specific as communication has been rather low of late i dont really know what a lot of my readers want, just browsing, following , curio ?...so with a lack of Intel i shall just presume passive readers .
The blog has been a good tool for me to test out new betting designs and patterns and has helped me focus in certain areas and as my only plan this month is testing PTS i have little to write about and less to rant about so i will keep it simple.
As the whole NH game seems geared towards the festival its hard working up enough enthusiasm at least on the Flat we have a decent meet just about every Sat and we have the classics, Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood , York etc..so much more to look forward to....March..3 Months and counting....

I will update later if i have any " real " fancies, tips or otherwise.....ttfn x


**UPDATE** :
At AYR i think following Lucinda Russell should pay dividends as she has 5 very useful looking runners today on a course she does well at , imo featuring all her runners in EW doubles and/or Trebles could be a smooth play.
At LINGFIELD i will be shocked if RANGI cannot finally win and HONEST STRIKE is one for my EW double ( or more ) and PENBRYN is interesting back after a long break but has been ( in his career ) placed or won a total of 6 times with 5 ( inc the CD win ) of these coming here at Lingfield and could run a big race being nice and fresh.
Over at WOLVERHAMPTON ROUGHLYN getting lumps of weight and with winning jockey Serena on again could run a nice race at decent odds while BALTIS SISTER makes it onto my EW list looking to score a hat trick over CD.
I do think MISS BUNTER is also entitled to consideration as Betfair are paying top 3 in this.
At KEMPTON i will rather frustratingly be sticking with SIR DYLAN in the hope the removed weight makes a difference as he is now only 2lbs higher than his last CD win and did show a tad of improvement lto...lemming bet but we all do them...LASTKINGOFSCOTLAND enters the fray ( EW  ) as this has proved to be remarkably consistent and shud be followed until this wears off and finally BREAKHEART is worth a second glance with the claimers allowance negating the weight rise.

So in summary , the EW SPECIAL will be ,
1.HONEST STRIKE -
2.LASTKINGOFSCOTLAND -
3.ROUGHLYN -
4.BREAKHEART -

With HONEST STRIKE the NAP ( of these )..
and RANGI and MISS BUNTER could be worth a WIN Double...

all in all very low grade stuff again...but its work and i will just have to make do with whats on offer...cya later all.

The Start of this glorious New Year..2013

And it starts with a washout as rather frustratingly Cheltenham has been called off due to waterlogging!!..Ggrr....so i will instead do a trusty ol' card for trusty ol Wolverhampton and lets see if we can nail a few winners to start the New Year off well ;-).

WOLVERHAMPTON

RACE 1
WIN - LA ESTRELLA - 1st @ 1.09 ( Only just )
EW -
LONG -
*Simply cannot be opposed in this very weak field as the gelding goes for win nos 21.
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RACE 2

WIN - SIR BOSS - 1st @ 2.71
EW - RESPLENDANT ALPHA -
LONG -
*This looks another for the favs as the leading duo have all the form between them ( relevant ) and it is hard to imagine any of the others getting in a blow.
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RACE 3

WIN - WOOLFALL SOVEREIGN - 1st @ 1.88
EW - MOORHOUSE LAD -
LONG - LE TOREADOR -
*Just a small field but a very tough one to call with having ability and all rather inconsistent , any of these could win on a " going " day this looks another good race for the place lay system imo.
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RACE 4

WIN - ARCHIE STEVENS - 1st @ 2.06
EW - GOLDEN FLOWER - 2nd @ 4.19
LONG -
*This looks like Dutch of the day as they are miles clear of the remaining few runners and it is certainly favouring the favs today...no juicy priced winners here me thinks.
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RACE 5

WIN - MYZAMOUR - 2nd @ 5.93
EW - ROLAND -
LONG - DON EDUARDO -
*A very tricky seller and this card has avoid written all over it...very poor showing for a NYD card...pity the supporters and spectators.
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RACE 6

WIN - RAKAAN -
EW - AQUILONIOUS - 2nd @ 4.43
LONG -
*
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RACE 7

WIN - VEYEPEA -
EW - CARACAL -
LONG - TETH -
*
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What a piss poor card..sorry folks , but thats all i have time for today....gotta get my NH head on now....