Cya Later Alligator

Adios Amigos...but just until the 27th ;)) , as i am away now  ( with 19 others ) for our Yearly Golf expedition to Malaga  and obviously i may have a beer or two ;)....

Although the weather is only forecast to be around 20-25 i think that shud be warm enough to pick a tan up ( if not im off back in July for another two weeks ) so clubs are clean and packed, cases ready , and im ready to rock...just gonna chill n have a nice few hours off with the Mrs tmrw before we set off good luck with your punting through the week , take it easy and keep smiling and keep the faith ttfn x.

Preakness Stakes

ORB...This powerful , athletic and wonderful looking sort looks a class apart and is every bit the superstar and with a poor draw to overcome i can see no other result than ORB winning...This race will be Orbsome ;).


Trainer Shug McGaughey believes Orb has the potential to produce "something special" in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico on Saturday.

Although the Kentucky Derby hero will break from a potentially uncompromising berth in stall one in the second leg of the Triple Crown, connections anticipate another big show from the unbeaten son of Malibu Moon.

"I think there's more (to come), but he's got to tell us that," said McGaughey.

"What really surprises me is how he comes out of his races, not only mentally, but physically. He's sure come a long ways since the Florida Derby.

"I can't wait to run him on Saturday afternoon, and maybe we'll see something special."

Louisiana Derby runner-up Mylute is considered Orb's biggest danger, having finished third in the Kentucky Derby.

Co-owner Paul Bulmahn said: "Orb is a good horse, and looks very good, and performs well, and has improved each race, too.

"He (Mylute) hasn't gone out and won a big Grade One somewhere already, and yet he keeps developing and each race he keeps getting better and better and better."

Departing finished third in the Louisiana Derby on his debut before winning the Illinois Derby.

Trainer Albert Stall jnr told the www.bloodhorse.com: "We just didn't think he got enough out of the Louisiana Derby to make that step forward (to the Kentucky Derby), and he had to earn his way to the Preakness, so we got that done in Illinois.

"I guess a lot of people would have most likely thrown him in the Derby, but he's a gelding and we just didn't want to tear him up. We just wanted to see one more race and kind of what we have.

"We still don't know exactly what we have, but we learned a lot more - we feel very comfortable being here. I think we're going to go run our 'A' race.

"Whether that's good enough or not, I don't know, but he acts like he's going to go fire."

Friday @ Newbury

MEETING : NEWBURY

" Well Day two of the York Trials meeting was a slight disappointment compared to Wednesday although i did win well on PARBOLD @ 4.8 as i held firm for my price ( wanted at least 4.5 ) and that kinda made my day after losing a bit on Greatwood ( Never had a chance after a poor start and pulling all the way round ) but that was my only real loss of concern as everything else either paid me out or was a non runner and of course a few from York yesterday were in deed NO BET races with advice there purely for the theatrics ( advised fun bets etc ) and i did state on the Day 1 Review that York is very much a place that can indeed be aptly labelled a " Horses for Courses " Track as some do specialize here and that was proven as both Navajo Chief and Ancient Cross both scooted up here at big prices and will no doubt do nothing all season again.
And with Day 3 looking not at all Punter Friendly i have diverted my gaze through to NEWBURY in the hope of finding more luck and winners , i have struggled a bit this week with York and its been a tough meet to profit from even more so when the conditions change dramatically and the markets dive up and down.
We do have our Facebook page live so feel free to drop in for some advice, banter or a general chat if your at home having some bets.
Also there has been some confusion as to the bet selections and placement as some shouldn't be getting Placed as advised bets and others are being left off , i can only apologize for this and will try to remedy this situation asap" .

So its off to Newbury we go and a track that is quite quirky itself but is one i do usually fare well at so lets crack on...
                                      ~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 1
WIN - CHAMPIONSHIP - 1st @ 4.06
EW - IFTAAR -
LONG - MAN AMONGST MEN - 2nd @ 25.90
*

SUMMARY - A tough looking maiden to start the day off with some very well bred sorts and a runner from our breeders list in IFTAAR from the in form Hills stable , this is bred for the trip , will enjoy the ground and should give a decent account.
" As usual in a field made up predominantly of newcomers, the betting may give some vital clues. As it is, the speculative vote goes to CHAMPIONSHIP given Richard Hannon has a good record in this race and jockey bookings suggest he's preferred to Alaskan. Martin Harley's presence on Ambiance point to his chances ahead of stablemate Jallota and he's also preferred to the Brian Meehan pair Cabaan and Man Amongst Men. Iftaar and the 140,000 euros colt, Gm Hopkins, are both first foals and worth noting along with Berkshire, although the latter may need further to show his best " .

BET ADVICE - NO BET - Iftaar EW will be my play here but its not a race that pulls me in and i shall save my bullets for later.
************************************************
RESULT - 
************************************************
RACE 2

WIN - VALTINA -
EW - WINSILI - 1ST @ 3.20
LONG - THE LARK -
*

SUMMARY  - This is a good Oaks Trial and has been won by some very smart horses in the past and most recently by the likes of Izzi Top and Clowance so the winner should be noted from this race for future reference.
For me this will boil down to a straight fight out between WINSILI & VALTINA both of whom are expected to improve from the opening runs and its the latter that gets the overall nod as she will have fitness on her side although i dont expect there to be much in it and The Lark should should run well after dodging a few appointments to take this up.

BET ADVICE - WIN DUTCH with Winsili & Valtina. - WIN ( Winsili 1st @ 3.20 )
************************************************
RESULT - 
************************************************
RACE 3

WIN - BRIDGE THE GAP - 
EW - MATRAASH -
LONG - BERWIN - 4th ( Done at 1.30 FAP )
*OUT OF THE PLACE POT ;(

SUMMARY  - Now we have a run o the mill 1m2f Hcap which consists of mainly poor , inconsistent and untrustworthy types and this isnt a race to really get too involved with.
Brown Pete is usually thereabouts at this level without being good enough but it's hard to know what to expect from Garrisson, who posted a couple of woeful efforts either side of winning at Lingfield. Matraash scored at the same track last time and has a 9lb hike in the weights to contend with but Evergreen Forest goes unpenalised for winning an apprentices race at Warwick last week. Sinchiroka and Breakheart have been running well at Wolverhampton but the vote goes to recent Chepstow third BERWIN with Josh Baudains taking 7lb off his back today. Bridge That Gap and Bold Cross are others with a shout.

BET ADVICE - NO BET - I will be laying Matraash at 4.3 ( current price )  and looking to trade it off tmrw when i expect the price to be a good deal higher ( if not i will leave a keep bet back trade in @ 6.6 ).***Lowest Matched trade was 5.8 and 6.50 for some proper money ( £100+ ) now 14.0 @ 14:32 ( awaiting off ) ....
************************************************
RESULT - 
************************************************
RACE 4

WIN - ORIEL - 
EW - ALUTIQ - 1st @ 4.96
LONG -  N/A -
*

SUMMARY - A 2yr old Conditions race with just the 6 runners and 3 of them saddled by Hannon...ORIEL went off an Odds On Fav for its first attempt and traveled like the winner throughout but when Rizeena ( previous experience counted ) kicked on it could not match the sustained run and with that run under the belt i am expecting this to win ( well touted and hyped up pre race ).
Alutiq could be the one to cause an upset as this also returned a losing Fav lto ( last time out ) but  was a little unlucky imo and will run well again here.

BET ADVICE - WIN bet on ORIEL , saver on Alutiq. - **Saver on Alutiq brings in some profit.
************************************************
RESULT - 
************************************************
RACE 5

WIN - SOUND OF GUNS - 
EW - NINJAGO - 3rd @ 2.17
LONG - N/A -
*

SUMMARY - A 6f Listed Class 1 event for 3 yr olds and its yesterdays Non Runner we turn to today in the shape of SOUND OF GUNS which was presumably pulled as they thought the ground was soft with all that heavy rain that poured onto the Knavesmire and she is still well in here and i still think a big run is on the cards.
NINJAGO will be very hard to beat tho super consistent , travels, quickens , battles and has some good form and racing over its ideal trip this will make them all battle for a win.

BET ADVICE - Fixed Return Dutch on Sound of Guns and Ninjago.- 3rd / 4th = Loss

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RESULT - 
************************************************
RACE 6

WIN - MAGICAL KINGDOM -
EW - NICHOLAS CANYON - 2nd @ 3.8
LONG - AUTUN - 3rd @ 6.2
*

SUMMARY  - Next up is a steady 1m Hcap but its a medium field that looks packed with class  ( on paper at least ) actually some of these do look quite decent for the grade and this is a competitive race where the winner will be hard to call.
Nichols Canyon will be a popular choice stepping up in distance after a third at Sandown on his reappearance. He should go close but MAGICAL KINGDOM is marginally preferred. He could only manage third over today's distance at Kempton on his handicap bow but the modest pace will not have suited and he should prove better than that on his first start on Turf. Autun wears his owners first colours ahead of Incorporate and will likely stay the trip having won his maiden over a mile at Nottingham last season while Prairie Ranger will have come for his return at Haydock and is another to consider on his handicap debut.

BET ADVICE - MAGICAL KINGDOM - EW - Unplaced = Loss
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RESULT - 
************************************************
RACE 7

WIN - SEMEEN - 1st @ 4.60
EW - LASER BLAZER -
LONG - TENNESSEE -
*

SUMMARY  - Another Dreary Hcap to round this day off but i am quite sweet on SEMEEN here and i feel this has more scope than most and its interesting to see Hughes riding for Cumani.
Luca Cumani's runners are better for the outing more often that not, but SEMEEN is worth the risk in this company. He's only 3lb higher than when scoring at Newmarket in August and we may not have seen the best of him yet. Perfect Cracker is getting no closer despite slipping down the weights but Cashpoint is better than he showed on his return at Pontefract last month. Laser Blazer usually runs his race but remains hard to win with and the same can be said of both Tenessee and Spirit of Xaar. Ssafa, last of four at Bath on Wednesday, can race off a lower mark than when scoring on the Polytrack under Paul Hanagan last month and Grand Theft Equine may be capable of better on only his second start on Turf.

BET ADVICE - SEMEEN - EW - 1st @ 4.60 = Win
************************************************
RESULT - 
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Views from the DARKSIDE ( Value Vader ).....

Trainer Ed Dunlop is hoping the real Concise will show up when she goes for the Swettenham Stud Fillies' Trial Stakes at Newbury on Friday.

Ed Dunlop: Concise hopes

"I've run her twice on grass and she has run appallingly, both times at Newmarket," said Dunlop.The American-bred filly has shown a decent level of form on the all-weather, but has flopped abysmally on her two runs on turf, both at her trainer's local track of Newmarket.

"She won at Kempton as a two-year-old and we went back there and she wasn't beaten far on her first run this year not fully wound up by a filly (Zurigha) who then went on to finish fourth in the French Guineas.

"It's very much a fact-finding mission for us. She did get agitated when she came off the horse-box and went straight to the racecourse so she will go early there and hopefully settle down. It's very much a case of watch and see."

The Lark, trained by Michael Bell, puts her Classic credentials on the line when she makes her seasonal reappearance in this Listed contest.

The daughter of Pivotal showed lots of promise in her two starts as a two-year-old, both in October.

After finishing fourth on her debut at Nottingham, she got off the mark over a mile at Doncaster.

"She would certainly have her chances enhanced by some more rain, but she has looked exciting in her work and we hope she will keep her Oaks chances alive with a decent effort here," the Newmarket handler told www.michaelbellracing.com.

I did say.....

York is a track that suits the phrase " Horses for Courses "....And with two Big priced winners already in ANCIENT CROSS and NAVAJO CHIEF following these track specialists would have already paid smart dividends.....Shame i dont take my own advice as all ive managed to do today is knock on the door...

Drop in for some Banter ...

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Facebook ..;)

This is going to be an amazing Race..

Its not Just the Classics that grab the headlines as this race will demonstrate , the JLT LOCKINGE  a race for 4 yrs + over 1m and this years renewal has attracted what i feel is a stellar line up and will be a brilliant race to watch.

Aidan O'Brien's Declaration Of War, a midweek gamble for the JLT Lockinge Stakes at Newbury on Saturday, heads a field of 13 for the first Group One of the season for older horses.

Declaration Of War: Midweek gamble

O'Brien also runs Reply.The former Jean-Claude Rouget-

trained colt was available at 7-2 on Monday but sustained 

support now has him as the clear favourite around the 7-

4 mark.

Saeed bin Suroor's Farhh, second in four Group Ones last season, twice behind Frankel, makes his eagerly-awaited reappearance in a race his trainer has won four times.

Roger Charlton's Cityscape avoided Frankel last season as he was in the same Khalid Abdullah ownership but he suffered his own near-misses behind Excelebration.

This year he is likely to stay at home rather than travelling around Europe.

John Gosden supplemented Fencing after an impressive display at Ascot on his first run as a gelding.

Beauty Parlour is an intriguing runner for Sir Henry Cecil.

Last year's French 1000 Guineas winner and Oaks runner-up has only had one prior run for Cecil when she disappointed in the Sun Chariot Stakes.

Roger Varian has always highly rated Aljamaaheer but so far he was been found wanting when upped in class.

Richard Hannon won the race in 2010 and 2011 with Paco Boy and Canford Cliffs respectively but his representative this year, Trumpet Major, will need a career-best here.

Hannon also runs Libranno, the mount of Kieren Fallon.

Connections of David O'Meara's Penitent, last seen in Hong Kong at Sha Tin, will be hoping for rain.

Chil The Kite, Sovereign Debt and German raider Amaron complete the field.

York - Musidora

MEETING : YORK

"Today we take a look at YORK as it holds the famous MUSIDORA STAKES which is a listed event and a good OAKS trial and a race which has been won by some very useful sorts in the past and this is just one race from a good looking card at the start of this mini York Festival as over the next three days we will see a few quality group / Listed events and trials unfold with some very good beasts on show".

                                                           ~~~~~~~~~~~~

The standard advice for betting and following these races is based around the assumption that you have a £2k Bank but as you may all well be punting with differing levels i will offer no actual stake representation only a core bet advice which can then be followed at your own pace , also i must add that aside from the actual advice given for these race cards quite a few members have previously just Dutched ( backing more than selection in a single race ) the selections for a good through the card profit , obviously i can only offer one core bet advice and that is the sole bet i would do at the time of press , i would however urge you to check the markets beforehand if possible and alter as required , also we will soon be having a " Live Chat " system in play and you can talk to me directly for upto the minute advice and betting options.

The bet advice given is a guide only.

                                                            ~~~~~~~~~~~~

So without further ado lets crack on with glorious ( albeit a bit cold ) York........

                                                            ~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 1 - Ground is Gd/soft ( Gd in places ) 

WIN - FIRST MOHICAN - 1st @ 4.20

EW - BRIDAL BELLE - 

LONG - EASTERN DESTINY - 3rd @ 17.0

*

SUMMARY - We start off with a open enough looking 1m2f Hcap that holds a mixture of class and arse and with the ground changing ( more so overnight ) the better handicapped but under achieving sorts may come to the fore.

First one to mention is FIRST MOHICAN a horse from the Cecil stable that won its first 3 starts in effortless style and looked group class in doing so however all the wins were on soft or worse and then when tried on firmer ground failed miserably leaving you to believe that this is a very much ground dependent horse, if  ( which i dont think it will ) the ground stays firm leave this alone today ( may win but highly improbable ) if however the showers continue to pour down then i think this becomes a very good bet at the current 6.60.

Next up is Clayton a big Peintre Celebre Gelding that does owe  ( me at least ) us a win after being told by the owner ( Guy Reed ) that he thinks the world of this and it is one his best i followed it off a cliff last season and continually frustrated even getting beat at 1.41 ( generally trades lower as its a good mover ) and i will no doubt be chucking a few more shillings into this ( may have it in a cheeky double though as im not expectant anymore ) .

Lahaag needs to bounce back from a bitterly disappointing run in the Lincoln tho' this is not inconceivable this is one to watch only as that was an effort of nothingness.

York itself is also a course where the phrase " horses for courses " is quite apt and is a play ground for the northern trainers to mop up some black type so be wary of all their better runners and more so the well handicapped and well weighted ones.

With that it may pay to watch out for Itlaaq from MW Easterby a trainer that does very good here being a local as such and this might try to run the legs off a few  ( won between 1m - 2m ) and might be a steady EW @ 16.0.

The other two ( inc First Mohican ) i really like both arrive from the in form Fahey stable and they are BRIDLE BELLE & EASTERN DESTINY with a stronger vote of confidence going to Bridal Belle a five time winner who has won over the CD and has won on Good / Good Soft and Soft so any ground type tmrw will be fine, looks Stable first string and ticks all my boxes.

BET ADVICE - " IF " the ground comes up a bit softer then i will be side with First Mohican if the ground remains on the fast side of good then i shall go with an EW on Bridal Belle @ 16.5 ( or better ) .**Lumped Mohican on the Ground being softer.

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RESULT - 

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RACE 2

WIN - TAROOQ - NON RUNNER - 

EW - NOCTURN - 2nd @ 5.15

LONG - YORK GLORY - 4th

*

SUMMARY  - Now we have an incredibly tough 18 runner 6f sprint and a race that requires the use of my magic pin.

Last month's Warwick winner Prodigality came up short in this grade again last time but York Glory is perfectly at home at this level. The latter scored at Pontefract last month with Singeur back in fifth. Nocturn is on the up but facing his most difficult task to date having landed a recent double at Windsor. TAROOQ makes more appeal as he notched up five straight wins on the all-weather last winter and can race off a 10lb lower mark back on this surface. Stuart Williams' charge is preferred to Mississippi and Farlow, though the latter's stablemate El Viento has a shout and Louis The Pious could also get involved. Secret Witness won this last year but is 9lb higher today.

BET ADVICE - A tough race in all honesty and no real bet can be advised here as any punt must surely be taken as a fun if not speculative gamble , gun to my head i would say EW on Louis the Pious.

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RESULT - 

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RACE 3

WIN - WOODLAND ARIA - 3rd

EW - LIBER NAUTICUS - 1st @ 1.72 ( Traded in running at 4.7 )

LONG - N/A - 

*

SUMMARY  - Now we have a small and tbh a disappointing field for the Musidora Stakes a Class 1  ( Group 3 ) over 1m2f for the Fillies.

You can easily make a case for any of the 6 runners but i will be focusing all my attentions on the two once raced fillies that both figure in the Oaks Betting, both won fto and both are open to any amount of improvement  ( or disappointment )  as the others already look exposed to a degree, the 2 in question are WOODLAND ARIA & LIBER NAUTICUS.

BET ADVICE - Liber Nauticus went off as a 11/4F for its maiden and duly obliged and is now currently the 1.74 Fav for this which imo is ludicrously low , yes it may well win but this is one race where you have to simply take it on and LAY the Fav , it is simply far too short for a race where so many are closely matched and the Fav is all about " what ifs " yes it may well win by 10L but you simply have to LAY this Liber Nauticus and if it does win , wipe your chin and move on.

**This is a strange bet / LAY as i do think that it will win however the price is so wrong and so short that i simply have to take it on.

************************************************

RESULT - 

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RACE 4

WIN - MINCE - 

EW - TICKLED PINK - 

LONG - SOCIETY ROCK - 1st @ 12.70

*

SUMMARY - Another ridiculous 18 runner sprint Hcap and another in which finding the winner could prove almost impossible.

TICKLED PINK has clearly made massive strides over the winter as she made all to win the Group 3 Abernant Stakes at Newmarket on her return. She beat Jimmy Styles by two lengths with several more of today's opposition further behind and is just preferred to another progressive filly in Mince. The latter signed off with victory in a Group 3 sprint at Ascot last term and is entered in the top sprints later this season but might just need this. Ladies Are Forever also arrives in fine form having won a couple of Listed sprints on the Polytrack recently while Maarek looked to have an easier opportunity at Longchamp last Sunday but turns up here instead. Last year's winner Tiddliwinks beat The Cheka, Society Rock and Bogart in that order and any one of that quartet could figure along with the high-class Irish raider Gordon Lord Byron.

Imho it may well pay to follow the 5 true group / Class performers and they are ( in no order ) ,

1. MAAREK -

2. TICKLED PINK - 

3. GORDON LORD BYRON - 3rd @ 8.09

4. SOCIETY ROCK - 1st @ 12.70

5. MINCE - 

With a slight preference for the latter named MINCE a horse i followed all last season and is a true group / Class 1 Sprinter and can race on or off the pace , on most ground types and has collected some very quick times and fractions and if fully wound up will take all the beating however any of the 5 named could be up there.

BET ADVICE - Dutch on Mince / Ticked Pink / Society Rock

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RESULT - 

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RACE 5

WIN - OPERA BOX - 

EW - GUISING - 

LONG - NORTHSIDE PRINCE - 2ND @ 36.0

*

SUMMARY -  Now its a bog standard but huge field Hcap over 1m4f which is pretty standard for York.

Northside Prince is usually thereabouts in this grade without being quite good enough and it could prove a similar story today. Marcus Tregoning is looking for a double in this after training last year's winner and OPERA BOX has leading claims. She just failed to catch the useful Boonga Roogeta at Doncaster last time and today's longer trip will suit. Guising is also unexposed but up 5lb for his recent win at Windsor while Novirak is another to consider dropping down a grade after a good effort at Epsom. High Office and Cousin Khee should go well and Cockney Sparrow has been in fine form over hurdles of late so is probably the pick of the remainder.

BET ADVICE - No bet again im afraid , you will go poor trying to make a living betting in these, these are for fun only - Northside Prince EW...but its more than a leap of faith required here.

************************************************

RESULT -

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RACE 6

WIN - ONE BOY - 

EW - INNOCENTLY - 

LONG - EXTORTIONIST - 4th

*

SUMMARY  - This is much better and far more manageable as we have a steady 8 runner stakes race which does have a very competitive feel to it.

Its 5f , its for 2 yr olds and all bar the debutante have won fto or won...this is gonna be down to the speed ratings and then whoever improves the most as they will all improve some tho will come on a ton and others will either regress or only show a slight improvement.

Firstly the two quickest by some way are ONE BOY & INNOCENTLY and at their prices ( two outsiders ) i feel it foolish to even look elsewhere as this is easily the value play here even if they dont win its still the bet option.

BET ADVICE - Equal Stakes Dutch on ONE BOY & INNOCENTLY  ( currently 10.5 & 12.0 )

**Went against the Favs here as i thought it would be a fair bit more competitive than it turned out to be, Favs led the 1,2 and 3...and it fecked me Placepot...little bit gutted tbh.

************************************************

RESULT - 

************************************************

RACE 7

WIN - RIGHT TOUCH - 

EW - GEORGE ROOKE - 

LONG - MUNDAHESH - 

*

SUMMARY  - And rather predictably we have a big 17 runner 7f Hcap to round the day off and not one to be going in large as a 2 getting out " stakes race.

Richard Fahey has trained three of the previous five winners and today's representatives all have a chance. Fantacise has tumbled down the weights and Right Touch scored on his handicap debut at Redcar last month. Khelman won his maiden by four lengths at Yarmouth recently and makes most appeal of his yard's runners but a chance is taken on MUNDAHESH. He landed the odds at Wolverhampton in October with the minimum of fuss and is taken to make a winning return. Line Of Reason has claims stepping back up in trip while Steelriver, George Rooke and Unknown Villain all ended last season with maiden victories and are others to note.

BET ADVICE - Another race in which i can offer no real pro bet only a " fun punt " as this is not a race for making money on ~ Mundahesh EW if i really had to.

************************************************

RESULT - 

************************************************

**A fascinating day and some intriguing races although they are not generally punter friendly , this is not a day to go over board on.

************************************************

TODAY'S BEST BET IS...The LAY on LIBER NAUTICUS - 1st @ 1.72 ( Traded at 4.7 in running )

__________________________________________________

Todays EW Doubles : ( York - Mince / One Boy ) : Another EW DOUBLE will be posted tmrw if it reaches the required standard to merit a bet , the Advised York EW double is speculative at best and shouldnt be used a serious bet.

___________________________________________________

Place Pot :

1. 1 , 10 & 13 - 1 & 13 ( 2 lines )

2. 2 , 6 & 12 - 1 Line ( Non Runner pushes stake onto Fav - 2nd ) - ( 1 line )

3. 4 & 6 - 4 ( 1 Line )

4. 1,2,3 16 & 17 - 1 & 2 ( 2 Lines - 4 Lines in Total )

5. 1 , 4 & 6 - 1 ( 1 Line )

6. 5 & 6 - Out in the Finale..Ouch ;(

Stake @ £0.20 ( 540 lines ) = £108.00

Placepot Paid £305.20

Return : £

**Placepot layout is larger than normal today but will pay very big if hit.

___________________________________________________

**Heres a quick note from our long shooting, long punting, glory hunter and double figure lucker....Value Vader....

Views from the DARKSIDE ( Value Vader ).....

Back Jack to reign at York

• By: Value Vader

Jack Dexter: Worth a bet at 20/1

If the forecast 5-10mm falls on the Knavesmire we could be looking at a very different  

market for the Duke Of York Stakes as the money is bound to come for those who 

excel with cut in the turf.Rain is forecast at York ahead of day one of the Dante meeting but the question is how much and will it have a significant effect on the ground?

The money has already come in for Maarek who is 6/1 from 10s after sustained support on Tuesday and the talented son of Pivotal has an obvious chance if the rain arrives.

However, we've missed the boat as far as he's concerned and instead I'm interested in the 20/1 plenty of layers are offering about Jim Goldie's .

This son of Orientor is a very progressive four-year-old and is only a big price for this Group 2 contest because he was well beaten in handicap company last time.

However, it was a hot handicap at Doncaster that's working out very well and he was carrying a big weight on ground that wouldn't play to his strengths.

On his previous start he won the Cammidge Trophy, a shade cosily I thought, from another proven mudlark in Captain Ramius and on that form he must have a chance should significant rain arrive on the Knavesmire.

There is pace around him with Bogart and Tickled Pink drawn close by and he should get a good tow into the race from that duo, with middle to low numbers usually the place to be when the ground rides soft at York.

Unbeaten in six starts when the ground rides soft or worse, really significant rain 

would increase confidence in the selection. But even if the precipitation only gets into the ground a little, Jack Dexter looks worth chancing at big prices to prove his last run all wrong.

Earlier on the card looks the one to be on in the Infinity Ecosis Tyres Handicap at 9/1.

He almost scored on his first start for David O'Meara following the move from Kevin Ryan's at York last October, but Regal Parade stole the Coral Sprint Trophy 

(a stronger race than this) from him with a late thrust.

Stepped up to seven at Doncaster on his next start, he led his group with a furlong to go but weakened into 10th late on.

Still, that showed he'll be competitive off a mark of 100 this season and he's gone well fresh before so it's not a concern this is his seasonal reappearance.

With conditions looking like they'll be ideal he looks bound to be in the mix and 9/1 looks fair.

Selections: 1pt e.w Jack Dexter in 3.15 York at 20/1, 1pt win Louis The Pious in 2.15 York at 9/1.