T.F.I.F

Yes indeed you merciless bunch of sinners its that time again..." The Weekend " and that means that we have finally got some meatier racing to look forward to and it all kicks off today ( Friday ) that said my compadre E.R.I.C has been keeping us all ticking over with a few winners this week including winners at 5/1 & 20/1....yes 20/1...smashing stuff lets just hope he can keep this form up throughout Christmas and we can all cheer ;-)...........
So what have we to look forward to ? well the decent meetings holding trials events at Doncaster and Cheltenham and its the Cheltenham 2 day event i will be focusing on so lets take a peek...this is gonna be a long one lol as im chilling to Buble @ Xmas ;-)....

CHELTENHAM

Race 1 : A small 4 runner novice chase to start the day but its a tight one as all 4 are very closely matched and all have conditions to suit..so you may need a pinch of luck in this as you do when you are involved in a race where any can win....
For me i think KINGS PALACE is a potential RSA winner in waiting and this chasing recruit looked high class when winning fto this season beating another of todays runners Sausalito Sunrise comfortably by 4L and not extended and i dont see the 7lb in hand being of any real concern today , Vivaldi Collenges however could also end up being very smart as PN won this last year with Sam Winner and this is a similar type and he would have had this in mind as a solid prep race for some time so should give a very strong account of himself but for me the winner will be the pipe inmate KINGS PALACE and i expect this to go on to bigger and better things from here.
Return Spring wont be winning unless the others fuck up so a PLACE LAY on that and using that stake to place a bet on Vivaldi as cover at a very attractive looking 7.6 or better is my bet.

RESULT : 

Full Result

Pos	Dist	Horse	Trainer	Age	Weight	Jockey	SP
1st		1 Kings Palace (IRE)	D Pipe	6	11-9 t	T Scudamore	Evsf
Made all, not fluent 4th, shaken up and went clear flat, easily opened 5/6 £500-£500(x3) £300-£300 £1100-£1000
2nd	7	3 Sausalito Sunrise (IRE)	P J Hobbs	6	11-6	T J O'Brien	2/1
Tracked leader, not fluent 15th, hit 3 out, ridden to close 2 out, no impression flat, no extra final 100 yards opened 9/4 £1200-£600 £1000-£500
3rd	1¾	2 Return Spring (IRE)	P J Hobbs	7	11-6	R Johnson	9/1
Held up in touch in rear, not fluent 4 out, soon pushed along, went 3rd before 2 out, no impression and mistake last opened 11/1
4th	32	4 Vivaldi Collonges (FR)	P F Nicholls	5	11-1 t	S Twiston-Davies	6/1
Not always fluent, prominent until after 1st, chased leaders on outside, pecked 15th, mistake and stumbled 3 out, soon beaten, weakened next opened 15/2

Race 2 : A decent looking chase for Conditionals is next on the menu and this looks a decent race for its type and the top 4 all have  ( imo )  the best riders aboard however they have to give lumps of weight away and historically this has gone to a runner sat in the middle of the weights and pricewise the middle order is just about right so regrettably im gonna swerve the top weights and look to the chasing pack to conjure a surprise and im gonna go in with a speculative but strong bet on HOLLOW BLUE SKY ( EW ) who has the scope to improve and was taking on much stronger opposition last time out...i will probably look to have some cover on Son of Suzie and An Alfa both of whom i expect to run decent races.

RESULT : 

Full Result

Pos	Dist	Horse	Trainer	Age	Weight	Jockey	SP
1st		6 Al Alfa	P J Hobbs	7	11-10	James Best (3)	13/2
Led until 2 out, stayed pressing leader, stayed on gamely to lead again towards finish
2nd	hd	4 Buck Mulligan	Evan Williams	9	11-11	Conor Ring (3)	10/1
Pressed leader, led 2 out, driven flat, headed towards finish opened 11/1
3rd	6	7 Hollow Blue Sky (FR)	N A Twiston-Davies	7	11-7 t	Ryan Hatch (3)	5/1
In touch in mid-division, pushed along after 8th, reminder 10th, went 3rd before 2 out, stayed on same pace

Race 3 : Pretty standard Hcap Hurdle is the next pocket emptier and im not going to dwell to much on this as its not a race i like too much in truth so i will just go with LOUGH KENT ( EW ) ( 4th lol how often does that happen with EW bets haha ) who i am told is no world beater but is open to bags of improvement this is a two time flat winner in France and is a nice enough type and the ground should be ideal and i feel a repeat of his run behind stablemate Theinteval will suffice and an improved effort will see it canter home...who knows..

RESULT : 

Full Result

Pos	Dist	Horse	Trainer	Age	Weight	Jockey	SP
1st		1 Starluck (IRE)	D W P Arbuthnot	9	11-12	Nico de Boinville (3)	6/1
Held up, headway after 2 out, went 2nd last, driven to challenge when bumped flat, stayed on well to lead close home
2nd	hd	6 Goohar (IRE)	H D Daly	5	10-8	R Johnson	4/1j
Tracked leaders, led approaching last, driven, edged right and bumped rival flat, headed close home opened 9/2 £5400-£1200 £3600-£800
3rd	5	8 Kalimantan (IRE)	Tim Vaughan	4	10-2	Michael Byrne	9/1
Held up, headway approaching 2 out, pressing leader before last, 3rd and stayed on same pace flat opened 11/1 £6000-£500 £5500-£500(x2)
4th	5	2 Lough Kent	N J Henderson	5	11-8	B J Geraghty	4/1j
Held up in rear, headway on outside when not fluent 2 out, outpaced and no impression before last, went 4th flat £4000-£1000(x2)

Race 4 : A tricky Hcap Chase is next up and this looks tricky indeed with 10 runners and some decent Hcappers on show which will make this a tight race to win but with over £25k to the winner it should be that way.
HADRIANS APPROACH  ( Ran a bit of a Shocker in truth ..boo , Thankfully i did Get on the Hendo Hotpot earlier which Won @ 13/2...so its not all bad. )is imo the Class act and could easily rout these if in the mood  and i really like the 6.2 currently being offered so its just a strong EW bet for me ( can feel some EW acca's coming on ;-) ) Sams Town and Charingworth will make this a solid enough test and if Hadrian doesnt turn up then either of these can win.

RESULT : 

Full Result

Pos	Dist	Horse	Trainer	Age	Weight	Jockey	SP
1st		6 Benbane Head (USA)	M Keighley	10	10-0 p	Conor Shoemark (3)	16/1
Prominent, led 4th, not fluent 8th or 18th, ridden and edged right last, hung right flat, stayed on well, drawing clear inside final 100 yards opened 14/1
2nd	9	9 The Ould Lad (IRE)	T R George	6	10-0	P J Brennan	4/1f
Held up towards rear on inside, mistake 9th, headway after 12th, blundered 4 out, left 2nd when not fluent next, stayed on to press winner last, no impression final 150 yards and no extra towards finish £6000-£1500 £4000-£1000 £2000-£500(x2) £1200-£300
3rd	2¼	7 Cowards Close (IRE)	P F Nicholls	7	10-0 t	S Twiston-Davies	9/2
Held up in touch in mid-division, ridden on 3rd after 3 out, not fluent 2 out, stayed on same pace £2700-£600 £2250-£500
4th	2¼	4 Charingworth (IRE)	K C Bailey	11	10-7	Mr H A A Bannister (5)	7/1
Chased leaders, mistake and lost place 9th, not fluent 12th, closed before 17th, driven and one pace 2 out £4000-£560
5th	4	10 Pigeon Island	N A Twiston-Davies	11	10-0 vt	Sean Bowen (7)	16/1
Chased leaders on outside, pushed along 17th, outpaced 3 out, no impression after opened 20/1
6th	17	1 Hadrian's Approach (IRE)	N J Henderson	7	11-12 p	B J Geraghty	6/1
Held up in rear, hit 11th, ridden and struggling 18th, well beaten from 4 out £3000-£500

Race 5 : A Glenfarlas race and this is going to be a big bet time for me in the shape of a Max Dutch on Big Shu and Uncle Junior ( NAP ) ( utter Pants but i did have a nibble on the winner but nonetheless this was just shite )   as i have these two an absolute street clear and regardless of the bags of weight being thrown away at 4.7 & 6.2 this is the Dutch of the week...a simply outstanding bet that needs to be fed....this can pay for Xmas ;-))).

RESULT : 

Full Result

Pos	Dist	Horse	Trainer	Age	Weight	Jockey	SP
1st		4 Any Currency (IRE)	M Keighley	11	11-0	Aidan Coleman	8/1
Tracked leaders, challenging when mistake 6 out, led 4 out, clear after 3 out until before last, stayed on well to draw clear again final 150 yards opened 7/1
2nd	12	5 Quantitativeeasing (IRE)	E Bolger	9	11-0 p1	M P Walsh	16/1
Held up in rear, mistake 21st, headway from 25th, went 2nd from 3 out, closed last, no impression flat opened 25/1
3rd	26	7 Carruthers	M Bradstock	11	10-13 t	Nico de Boinville (3)	11/1
Led until 1st, prominent, led 10th until next, ridden and outpaced from 25th, went 3rd after last opened 12/1
4th	2	9 Pasquini Rouge (FR)	P Quinton	6	10-4 pt	Jan Faltejsek	7/1
Led 1st, soon headed, tracked leaders, mistake 6 out, soon beaten opened 11/1
5th	3¼	11 Imperial Circus (IRE)	P J Hobbs	8	10-0 bt	James Best	8/1
Mid-division, in touch from 4th, 6th and struggling when mistake 6 out opened 11/1
6th	3¾	10 Orange Nassau (FR)	C E Longsdon	8	10-3	R P Mclernon	14/1
Led after 1st, headed 10th, led next, headed 4 out, mistake 3 out, lost 2nd and no extra opened 16/1
7th	31	2 Uncle Junior (IRE)	W P Mullins	13	11-7	Mr P W Mullins	8/1
Held up in rear, well behind from 6th, very modest headway 4 out, no impression, tailed off
PU		1 Big Shu (IRE)	Peter Maher	9	11-12 t	P Carberry	6/1
Held up towards rear, mistake 21st, mistake and went wrong next, pulled up and dismounted opened 5/1 touched 8/1 £3500-£500

Race 6 : BIG EASY & ULZANAS RAID ( And we round the day off with a nice 6.0 Winner....;-) ) is a tasty looking dutch also and this will round of my day , back on Saturday for a more in depth look at the cards and a full win/ew/long layout as we will be going for the Jackpot ;-)..have fun n GL.

RESULT : 

Full Result

Pos	Dist	Horse	Trainer	Age	Weight	Jockey	SP
1st		2 Ulzana's Raid (IRE)	A King	5	11-10	W Hutchinson	9/2
Mid-division, closed 7th, led last, hard pressed flat, headed final 75 yards, battled gamely to lead again close home £11250-£2500 £2250-£500 £2000-£400 £2700-£600
2nd	nse	3 Big Easy (GER)	P J Hobbs	7	11-7 p	R Johnson	15/8f
Chased leaders, closed 7th, not fluent 2 out, challenged last, led final 75 yards, headed close home £2000-£1000 £800-£400 £600-£300
3rd	1½	10 Guiding George (IRE)	D Skelton	6	10-0 pt	A Freeman (5)	6/1
Led until after 4th, led 7th, headed last, stayed on to press leaders until held towards finish opened 7/1 £7000-£1000 £6000-£1000

Late Saturday Post...

Morning Dingbats , 
                          Bit late today and slightly short on time as i got a bit pissed last night on the back of a few in the arvo wi me boys at Spoons'.....so did struggle to get up lol..but here i am....there will be no card today but i will take on the 4 highest rated races today and see if i can grab you lovely lot a winner or two....

RACE 1 > .

Betfred TV Fillies' Juvenile Hurdle (Listed) 

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This is the type of race i usually take on because i make good money on these and NYANZA  ( NAP ) can get me off to a winning start as this daughter of Dai Jin although green looks a nice prospect and this got beat lto by one of todays rivals Announcement but today is 7lb better off for that 1L and given the manner of the defeat i would fully expect the King inmate to secure a tidy victory as Announcement is more of a gutsy battler than anything else and i will expect to see Hannah s Magic become the strongest rival.
Current Price > 2.72 which i feel is good and is above the 2.25 i had it on so to me is a value bet without being value ( if that makes sense ) and i make this a solid WIN bet.

RESULT : 1st at 2.39 ...BoooM
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RACE 2 > .

Madinat Jumeirah Dubai December Handicap Hurdle (Listed)

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This looks quite a tight race however on a card where Hendo is sending out a host of runners and a few from JPM ( His Snake Eyes Won as the 6/4F ) i think he will lose this  even being double handed as LEVITHAN comes here on the back of a nice fto Win beating Sweet Deal ( lines up again today ) and although slightly worse off Leviathan Won by a heavily eased down 3L and this has an awful lot more to offer and i would be very surprised if the superiority isn't confirmed.
Current Price > 7.8 which i feel personally is outstanding and im going to make this my EW NAP for today , imo this is a cracking bet.

RESULT : Unplaced > Ran really well from the front until just after 2 out when he collapsed in a heap and virtually stopped..so a disappointing run and one to put a line thru...
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RACE 3 > .

888sport Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1)

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Now we have possibly the days biggest race ( in terms of stature ) and this has been very well supported with 10 classy runners and not a lot to split them i have a feeling this will be a cracker and one to savour but what will win ?? well in truth its all margins and it really is a bit too tight to call as Hinterland has been a bit disappointing and has not yet fulfilled the expected potential which we was led to believe he had and must be on the watch list for now , Gods Own , Dodging Bullets and Balder Sucess are 3 cracking horses and once again i expect little to separate them as they will all be out to cut each other up and it will all boil down to a jumping error , a hamper or something similar in order to lose it , Somersby is a fav of mine and is well upto winning this and ran well fto showing himself in great heart and back over its ideal trip i think this will make them all go a bit however i am going to row in with OSCAR WHISKY as i am prepared to give this another chance now running back over its perfect and strongest trip ( not a prolific winner at 2m but travels very strong for this and will be well suited to it imo ) on ground it likes and its own form is enough to put it right in the firing line.
Current Price > 6.80 , This is about right if anything its on the right side of being a very good EW bet and in a very open affair its as good a bet as anything else on offer.

RESULT :Fell early on...oh dear..but the general write up was pretty much spot on imo.
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RACE 4 > .

Betfred Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (National Course)

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Todays final race is a right Doozy as we have a 16 runner Hcap chase over the National course and it will be an attritional affair , Rolling Aces and Dolatulo are the class animals , Rebel Rebellion who won it last year is primed for another big run racing from just 5lb higher and Bob Ford is a very interesting runner from Becky Curtis , Champion Court could run a big race at tasty odds and Hunt Ball has class but is probably still too high in the weights ...i think the winner will come from this convoluted list so you pays yer money and you take your chance....i think BOB FORD is the best EW bet at around 16/1 and for the WIN i think DOLATULO could be in quite light and may have that extra bit of class required....Good Luck All.

RESULT : And we round off the day with Nada as neither Bob Ford or Dolatulo could manage a blow as the best we had was Rolling Aces in 4th...as the in form Pipe Yard take it with old hand Poole Master @ 44/1
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Have Fun ALL , cya next week....

Hiya Race Fans ,
                           Yes the weather has sure turnt a tad cooler now as its proper jumpers n jackets time however the rain has been minimal which has kept the ground on the better side of good not that you would have thought so after i had played golf on Tuesday n the ground at Boothferry was almost bog like....very very tough conditions as every shot had to be played on the top side of sweet but i hit 34 points which was very good imo considering the conditions however it must also be pointed out that for the first time ever i smashed the putting to bits hitting 6+ 20 footers for 1 putt holes which secured me a good few points!!...its days like that when i need everything to fall into place...but there is always something that lets me down , some part of my game that fails and i can never seem to quite get everything going at the same time...i could play next week and drive every hole 250 yards straight down the middle then end up 3 putting everything...its a game of fine margins but if im to truly get my Hcap down from 24.2 to the 18 which i believe i can play then i have to find some consistency and belief...hopefully 2015 will be my year once the new magic Cobra's have kicked in ;-).

So onto racing , what do we have for your fine selves today ( Friday ) ? well after a muddling , middling week with little action thats whets anyone's appetite consisting of small field sizes with dubious quality ( good fro Stat Lay and PPL i might add ) we move into the weekend at what feels like a snails pace but with a warmth as we have some very smart racing on the Saturday and a nice weekend warm up at Sandown for the Friday and although im not doing a full card for the Friday meeting i will do a breeze up and give some general advice and the odd tip as we peruse through it.

So lets look at Sandown ,

We start the day with RACE 1 a Juvenile Hurdle a race type i specialize in so it would be nice to think i can start in the black and take the rest of the day on all cashed up ;)..but its a small field thats split into two groups..6 runners and 3 have previous form and winning form at that and the other three are all untried and those 3 newbies are all decent flat sorts rated in the mid 70's low 80's ( all lightly raced ) and 2 have shown progressive winning form over flat staying trips and the likelihood is that they will all stay on good ground or better but the forecast soft or heavy could prove a problem..but its guesswork and guessing...so im going to presume that they will for now.

Baron Alco who won fto is a ok future project but Dom Alco progeny more often than not require further and will usually come into their own over 2m6-3m+ so to see one win over the minimum is somewhat a surprise but none the less it did and again albeit it was in a poor field of poor quality with the second only rated around 56 on the flat and significantly weaker than those he will face today and at the current 3.05 this is not even worth an after thought i would have thought either betfair or even Oddschecker would have had a decently formed market as i reckon this be around 4/1 and even then its not worth a bet in fact i would need a ridiculous 10/1 to just take a 2nd look..
The Fav Baraka Des Thaix who is currently odds on is appalling value and is not worth backing but is he worth laying ? , well at 1.63 i would lay this son of..guess who ??...Dom Alco all day long...if there is anything here half decent and with a touch of pace this thing is fucked...it needs a minimum of 2m4f..period...so if you can manage a Lay at odds on i think that could prove a very astute bet and def not a back bet.
BIVOUAC will love the ground and the trip and is bred to be quite smart over these trips and its just a shame we didnt get to see a real show of ability when it run at Auteuil as it pulled up however i have it on good authority this is quite a smart prospect but Hendo has not only been a fucking joke with his info of late but his string either fire red hot or stone cold so i have no real idea what to make of this saying that it was an IDK purchase and he said this thing would have ended up listed class on the flat if they had continued and is one he would have liked to have kept but his business is spotting , buying and selling ( which he also does with Emma Lavelle , Venetia Williams and Nicolls ) so i will keep my powder dry for this if i can get at least 4/1 as i think that is its price and at that its worth a decent tickle or at least is worth having in a dutch.
Classical Art is Pipes so called second string and its also owned by the powerhouse Simon Munir who is developing quite an impressive string of horses and to say its a 2nd string is quite an insult to a horse that could easily be involved at the finish and will probably be a point or two higher than it should be and is worth a consideration.
Quebec is another French sort and won his maiden quite easily but at a far lower level than what should be required here and with that in mind this has to be the rank outsider and one to forget...for now but should be watched and followed if dropped in grade.
Storm Force Ten is a very interesting runner as Balding doesn't entertain many in this sphere and the ones he does need to be respected and this two time middle distance winner could prove a very decent recruit with only the ground being a possible negative but at anywhere over 8/1 this becomes a positive bet to nothing.
SUMMARY : The ground i think is the key here as i feel if this turns into a savage drain in energy sapping ground then the Dom Alcos will prove hard to beat however if on the day the ground is anywhere near resembling good then the Bivouac and Storm Force Ten can utilize their superior between the sticks speed to
gather up a nice enough bout of momentum to render a dour stayer useless...i think you will need to wait until about 30 mins before the race to really make your mind up but at this early stage i will just take on the Fav...and may load up again tmrw...because i fancy having some bets...yes the boots are on and the gun is loaded ;-)).
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Race 2....wow this took some getting to lol...Right now we have a Hcap Chase and these along with Beginner Chases are a right fucking nightmare for punters...these races require Dicky Hurd and his magic Pin but hes not here so i will have to try and find the answer the old fashioned way..what i will say is this..this is a massive Stat LAY race and i will be laying whatever is fav 5 mins before the race...this will generate a profit thru trading for sure but is also a highly profitable system ( long term )  to follow.
As for finding the winner well thats an all together trickier matter as the are weighted to within a whisker of each other and all come into with a case as conditions favour no one.
SIR MANGAN has to be the token EW selection as it arrives in good heart and in form , has the best and most recent relevant Chase form , stays this trip well and will like the ground so having checked off pretty much every box this surely has to run a solid race and is worth a few quid EW or FAP.
             
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So we amble over to Race 3 and this is a 5 runner hurdle but not any old 5 runner affair i may add but a delicious looking Grade 2 event ( former Winter Hurdle ) and there is pretty much fuck all separating these runners and i reckon this could be a bloody decent race.
Third Act probably isnt upto this grade or class of rival even if he settles so is rather easily dismissed..so that leaves 4 and the early Fav is  Vyta Du Roc  and once again i am informed that this thing is red fucking hot and its gonna take on Everest and win by a million lengths etc etc , blah blah blah.....this tho has got some decent looking form to back up all the hyperbole and lto it beat a very good yardstick in Emerging Talent and had Commissioned a further 25L further back and that multiple winner has cracking lateral form with the likes of Listed and graded runners Guitar Pete and Ballyglasheen which does nothing but add further spice to an already good looking race.
The trainer of Emerging Talent P Nicolls will have a real good handle on VDR so his runner the unbeaten Grey Mare Tara Point has to uber interesting as this has thus far beaten nothing of note but it beat them mercilessly ( won by 15L and never ran more than a common canter to saunter home )and as yet is untested but does love to get her foot in and will love the conditions and must surely be up there come the final 2 fences and final 2f....this is another that could easily be heading to the very top and looking at the past winners of this trial i would say " follow the form of this race with gusto "....
Shantou Bob is another that arrives in great form and is the third horse to arrive here on the back of a Hat trick  ( this is actually on a 5 timer ) and with a newly fitted tongue tie could easily improve more and seeing how had them all ( in his last race ) strung out like the proverbial washing this has to be a gimme..surely ??...but improving enough to be in this class is not enough to say it can win as i think it needs another 12lbs to really get involved and competing for the winners band.....and similar comments can be applied to Ordo Ab Chao a really wonderful looking Gelding by Heron Island that like the others will be winning more races but today is a big step up but its one i wouldnt be shocked by if it won.

SUMMARY: Well this is very tough to call with most having not even the width of a Gnats cock to separate them but im gonna stick with Hendo the fat cunt and hope hes having one of his non bullshit days....time will tell.
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Moving forward now we have in RACE 4 a race that again is small in size but big in Quality and with the 4 runners they need to be to justify any form of entrance money...£30k a race up for grabs and they still cant get the numbers...what the fuck is wrong with some trainers...i know plenty of decent Hcappers that could travel down and pick up the easy £k+ for 3rd and with prize money down to 6th its going to be equally shared...shame on you guys as i think your doing your owners a disservice.
Anyway lets look at the race and on the face of it this looks a 2 horse race which lay between the returning CORRIN WOOD and BLACK THUNDER and as a match i think its too close to call as Corrin Wood only tasted defeat in the RSA and could be exciting whilst Black Thunder is tried n tested n has all the T Shirts and is a cracking sort that just lacks that bit of class that prevents a win ratio in better company an almost impossible task and at todays odds we dont really have a bet as the dutch is almost a no bet and the lay on Dare to Endeavour is the wrong side of a good bet and this doesnt quailfy as a PPL bet either so im struggling here...if i had to would say Corrin Wood as its a better price and BT has shown some poor jumping in the past which could be costly today...but really its just a race to watch...which is a shame.

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Hoping that RACE 5 offers us more as we move the page over.....i peek , what do i see ???.....a 6 runner conditional  Hcap Chase....a sentence from Punting Hell...and to make matters even worse none of these fuckers can be split....so im not gonna wade thru hours of form trawling long n hard to find n angle i am instead just gonna use my Jedi force and see which droid is not the one i am looking for...BALLYALLIA MAN is my token bullshit choice.
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 Fina Fucking Lee...RACE 6....this has proven to be more of a bind than i was expecting...first glance at the days decs and i was expecting some good shit....when the reality is , well..its mainly just shit....and not conducive to good punting....well the days finale is one of the days better races and is a fairly decent one for punting so getting out alive could well be on the cards , its a 10 Runner Hcap hurdle with some decent sorts lining up and some good betting opportunities.
THEINVAL races today off the same weight as he was when winning a few days ago as that was a conditionals event so carries no penalty and the marked improvement in form should be noted and i thhink this will take a world of beating today , loves the trip , loves the ground and BG is sticking around to steer this home and im making this my NAP for the day..a cracking wee bet Fourth Act and As De Mee will be good opponents but should only be fighting for places.

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In truth not the best days racing ever but it is what it is and there are some decent looking events at Exeter to keep you interested including 2 x £20k+ Chases.

Vyta De Roc / Corrin Wood / Theinval is a decent looking Trixie for the funsters and workers to put on and forget about...see you all on Saturday....

Late Saturday Post >>>

Hi Guys n Gals ,

Well its been a busy ol week without there being much on lol..one of those weeks where little gets done and the time just seems to fly by....so what have we to look at today? , well i have 4 races i specifically want to look at and with any luck we might be able to conjour up a little Win or EW Yankee/L15 etc....

RACE 1 : 14:440 Ascot > This should be the easiest race to judge as FAUGHEEN could easily prove to be different class as it looks to extend its winning run from 6 from 6 to 7 from 7 and showcase its Triumph Hurdle claims after winning 4 egg n spoon races it easily won the Baring Bingham  and then won the Champion Hurdle event at Punchestown and will be a major force this year...some yard that Mullins has..just insane...will be an interesting race to watch as it has become a bit of a no betting heat , it is currently 1.32 and although its almost a standout " Frankel " bet i find myself holding back until i have seen this first run but i do expect it to win with a certain authority but i have had some good reports from Hendo regarding  Blue Fashion and this 150 rated son of Scorpion should prove a stern enough test...shame tho as it limits the possibilities of me getting a tasty Yankee together for you guys....lets see how we get on as i may add 1 more or revise to a Trixie...

RESULT : 1st - FAUGHEEN @ 1.25 - this pissed in never off the bridle beating Blue Fashion very comfortably...very very impressive.

RACE 2 : 14:05 Ascot > The AMLIN and this looks a cracker on paper a small but select field with some real class and Paul Nicholls will be looking to add to his personal tally in this having won it for 3 of the last for years including last year with one of todays runners AL FEROF and i have long been an admirer of this powerful son of Dom Alco and although breeding suggests he will be better over 3m this has thus far proven well within his realm although his win last year was a non event as only 2 turned up so this must be taken with a large pinch of salt and this is a 100 fold tougher task having been thrashed in its 3 following races by pure quality and its the way it got beat makes me think that Al is not really a proper C1 animal..maybe a weak one but probably just a listed or G2 at best and i think it will again get undone by superior class.
Bury Parade certainly is only C2 and quite often throws a race losing blunder in so for this to be anywhere near the places the others will have to woefully under perform and this will need a career best...far too many variables in that sentence for me to engage..leave alone.

Fox Appeal is interesting as its still a novice and looks to have a bit more improvement inside him but he will need to find that to get anywhere near these , a nice sort and one for future events but not currently at the standard required.
Radjhani Express is a solid if unspectacular performer that offers little in this grade and is easily overlooked leaving for me SOMERSBY and WISHFUL THINKING as the two main protagonists and at 5.0 & 9.2 i think is a solid looking dutch in a fairly open race.....for the Yanksters....well i am open to giving Somersby another chance as he usually takes at least one race to warm up and usually benefits to the tune of around 8lb for the warm up and his class can shine although he is rather unpredictable and not the most reliable sort.

RESULT : 1st - AL FEROF @3.85 > Career best run and it looks like he has finally got his act together , Somersby was 2nd @ 10/1

RACE 3 : 14:25 Haydock > A nice 16 runner Hcap Hurdle to get stuck into , Grade 3 but C1 so comes into this as it could offer us all a nice value bet.
KATKEAU is my HCE Tipping Comp selection and is one i think is a very good bet ( obviously ) as this hosed up after a long absence fto and runs today without its allotted penalty and could easily still be well ahead of the Handicapper and if it doesnt " bounce " then will goo very close and is a EW NAP as the 9.20+ looks a very tasty bite.
Elsewhere ..well in truth i cannot and would not put anyone off trying their hand with any other selection as this looks wickedly close and is as hard a race to judge upon as you will find.

RESULT : 1st AUBUSSON - Fantastic ride and run from a very promising stayer..i was impressed with this , wouldnt say KatKeau bounced as i thought it ran a solid race and looks good but was just beaten fair n square today after a late race hamper come in 5th ( one out of the 4 paid places ) and was matched as low as 2.0 for the win and 1.02 fap.....ALMOST MADE IT HOME FOR THE BACON..

RACE 4 : 

Betfair Chase (Registered As The Lancashire Chase) (Grade 1)

..Now for me its the days big one and a race that many a question will need to be answered , Can Silvi bounce back after a poor show fto when tanking then flattening , can Cue Card reveal a glimpse of its truest ability over a trip that has often left me bemused , Will Taquin finally show his true colours , can Dynaste stop fucking about and finally be the champion we know he can be ?????...so many questions to answer from most of the field.....and in truth if they all run to their very best then i think its too close to call  it will be for me a case of who ever turns up today and runs anything like wins..simple..
Cue Card often needs a pipe opener but really has to show it for me as i have little trust in this until i see some form but this CD winner is in with an obvious shout , I really dont know what to make of Dynaste a horse i love  but rarely shoves a full shift in ..so many umms n arrs so im gonna have a Max Dutch on Silvi & Cue Card (  Nap Bet ) as i think this is the strongest bet and at 5.0 & 5.3 offers plenty of Value......

RESULT : 1st - SILVI' @ 5.27.....and thats the NAP bet Home...BoooM ;-)

                                    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Good Luck All, have fun n enjoy your Saturday.

Back from the unexpected...

Hi All im back after having to take a break away as me n the mrs departed our merry ways and i took it upon myself to take a break n visit me mam in sunny Spain to clear my head...and here we are...back to reality.........and its all about the NH now and Cheltenham adds fuel by holding its first true " Open " Weekend and the Friday card looks a great test and im hoping to see Saturdays equally stellar as we go the Nap hunt...so without further ado lets go n smash Cheltenham...

CHELTENHAM 

RACE 1 : 19 Runner Novice hurdle to get the day started ...is this a setter for the rest of the day...i seriously hope not as this looks very tough and not at all punter friendly.
Earth Amber from the Hendo yard will need to seriously improve both its technical side and its character as this moody sort although ability packed is a monster to train and will on the day do what he wants and that is enough reason for me to leave this alone.
GOLDEN JUBILEE looks a useful sort based on its fto run where it won with any amount in hand and was never pressed and this arrives here in form and getting upto just over 2 stone from its rivals as it views everything from bottom weight , this is no shoo in by any means but has to be in the final fence shake down  with anything like a clear round.
Chesterfield will be well fancied but like so many of the Ferguson flat track bullies he may find one or two of these too fit and too good so is easily overlooked..on this occasion..., GREAT CHOICE and JOHN LOUIS are two that i like and both look likely fto improvers from canny trainers and if the prices allow i am dutching the fap..but wont really know till tmrw...if i had to hang my hat on a sole EW selection then it probably be Great Choice.

WIN - GREAT CHOICE - 2nd @ 8.92
EW - JOHN LOUIS - 6th
LONG - GOLDEN JUBILEE -

RESULT : 
                                                 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 2 : This is a far easier to manage 5 runner 3m Novice Chase and it looks at first glance to be a monster Stat Lay race so i will wait for my bet choice until around half hour before the race but in all honesty is this rank up there at around the 9+ scale.
For the backers, punters and race goers i think Knock House could end up the best of these long term although it has yet to prove it stays although in truth it won so well over 2m5f lto ( won by what seemed a furlong when in fact it was only 18L ) that i really cant see this being an issue and this is worth a double check but it will take a super run to beat SAUSALITO SUNRISE which stays all day and at race pace which is a big plus and is a lot different to just staying as this multiple distance winner ( all 5 wins have been over 24f ) looks to have a much better engine than likely deceivers Kings Palace and this ranks a pretty good bet.

WIN - SAUSALITO SUNRISE - 2nd @ 4.10
EW - KNOCK HOUSE -
LONG - N/A -

RESULT : 
                                                 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 3 : Now we have a race up that will placate the purists lol..its a Grade 3 Hcap chase..haha for punters these are nightmare races...Hcap and Beginner chases are the two toughest realms to attack and are ones i often leave alone however we cant do that for you lovely lot ;@) , the last two running's were won by the 10-0 bottom weights and in the last 8 years nothing over 11-9 has won so we will take out the top 3 that brings us to that level , Gevrey Chambertain was woeful lto so is readily fucked off , The Package is a classy sort on his day but the last time he showed any willingness to run Pat Eddery had just been born so is another on the dodge pot list , Lamb or Cod is a nice sort but only just gets this trip so i think i am going to look outside of the proverbial box here and have an EW on MASTER NEO who won very well indeed lto and jumper soundly is lightly raced and will enjoy any cut in the ground and at decent enough double figures is a solid bet where many in the field are practitioners of flattery and self flagellation.

WIN - THE DRUIDS NEPHEW- 2nd @ 5.72
EW - CAPE TRIBULATION -
LONG - MASTER NEO -

RESULT : 
                                                 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 4 : Todays Big one the PADDY POWER GOLD CUP and this looks a cracking renewal where plenty will have been trained for this as an early season shot across the bows and with 19 runners this will takes some winning so lets take a look at the class in the field.
The class it has to be said is spread throughout as there are some tasty ol runners here but i will fire my first Arrow into OSCAR WHISKEY who is a proper class 1 horse over this trip but i am personally not quite taken with his attitude or resistance in a battle and is one until i see improvements to leave alone...on the other hand JOHNS SPIRIT has been an utter revelation the last 2 years moving up from tasty Hcaps to listed then Class 1 with ease and on its first run this season it was never off the bridle until it turned into a 2 way fight to the line but John had too much class and won well and readily i might add by 1L and 6L and this is a truly top class stayer make no mistake and is worth following until something dramatic changes as i honestly think this is up there knocking on the door of the Sprinter Sacre's and Annie Powers..so to get a price like 12/1 is imo outstanding and i simply have to get involved. (

Paying AN EXTRA place on each-way bets on this race

 )BUYWISE is another up n coming champ in the making and also won well fto and looks Festival bound but he has gone up an eye watering 38lb this year alone and the tipping point will be found eventually so i am happy to watch that race and if it wins then so be it.
Present View ( 3rd ) is another that is superbly consistent and having been unplaced just the once in 10 outings is another that will do nothing but improve and i think he is good for at least another 16lbs so is well in off his current mark but at around the joint fav mark of 7/1 offers little to entice a bet and is one best watched today and Indian Castle is another who looks well in and could easily get involved but for me this is all about Johns Spirit EW NAP with most bookies paying an Extra place..el lump for me as i see no way this doesnt place with a clear round.

WIN - JOHNS SPIRIT - 2nd @ 13.0
EW - OSCAR WHISKEY- 4th
LONG - BUYWISE -

RESULT : 
                                                 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 5 : Next up is a tough 3m Hcap Hurdle and this looks very tight on my ratings and stat base as im having trouble splitting 5 of these.

So lets just focus on my Fab 5..
1.KATKEAU - Hasnt raced for over 600 days but was smart looking prior to the injury and if Pipey had got him back in good order and the belief and ability are still present then he could easily make the frame or better but at 5.7 offers fuck all in value and simply has to be dropped on the basis of non existent value.-1st @ 6.80

2.INVICTA LAKE - This is a step up in class for this but it won a nice looking C3 event lto over a similar trip so easily it had crossed the line in front in nothing more than a common canter and i think it has every chance based on that and is well deserved of his place in this line up and at 18/1 is worth a nibble for a fun bet in a tough race.- 3rd @ 23.46

3.PINEAU DE REI - This is a nice sort from the very capable Newland yard and last years National Winner wont be lacking for any form of stamina and should there be any doubts about the others this distance winner could be there at the end to mop up after them all but in truth i dont feel he will have the pace or class for something like this and the 20/1 is too small for me to get involved.

4.VIVALDI COLLENGES - This has the potential to be the real class act in this , lightly raced and consistent this could go right to the top and a nice return when just touched off will have brought him on n he should now be spot on and this for me is the likeliest winner and the 7/a stands out as a corking EW bet.

5.FIGHTER JET - Never under estimate anything Alan King sends out as he showed last season the wily old fox is back at the top of his game and as his ammo chest fills up it wont be long until he can start firing back at the likes of Mullins et al and the 14/1 on this is not a bad bet imo does stay but often gives himself too much to do and throws in one too many mistakes.

WIN - VIVALDI COLLENGES -
EW - KATKEAU - 1st @ 6.80
LONG - INVICTA LAKE - 3rd @ 23.46

RESULT : 
                                                 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 6 : HARGAM which was sold out of the operation run by IDK in France reckons this is a shoo in for some future black type as rates this group class..Bought by JP and sent to Hendo they expect big things of this who is by a mare that is by Galileo and is by Sinndar in the first degree..thats a very attractive blood line in either code and this multi £££ purchase will be expected , however if the ground is way soft then they wont risk a slog for exertion so may take an easy route ( this is only an assumption ) and i do feel the 2.72 is a very decent price and im making this my stand out bet and NAP for the day. - 2nd @ 3.04 ( Hit 1.04 )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ & PLACEPOT LANDED @ 4 LINES....;-))
And in the NHF im sticking with the red hot Greatrex and having a go on Miss Estrila....Have a great day all good luck and ttfn

Sunny Saturday

Well what a spectacular Month Weather wise..moving into the 1st Nov and its 19°..this is bonkers...but lets enjoy this final flourish as im sure the cold damp n miserable weather will not be far away.........well the Charlie Hall usually means for most the NH season has started in earnest and the whole Wetherby card looks pretty decent in truth but its Ascot that is getting my vote as i like the look of some of the races on offer and a mix of tricky n fun....however everyone must back Silvi Conti today as i see this no way losing as its the class act and is a good 8-10lb better away from Cheltenham..should muller these if anywhere near fit n ready.

Race 1 : Its a 2m4f ( almost ) Hcap hurdle and with 14 runners and a good spread thru the field looks a nice race to get involved in.
No class acts on show but one or two with potential and i think its the type of race where any runner that is not double figures gets kicked to the curb and thats takes three out straight away so we are down to eleven runners and this is a massive stat race with only Shalianzi missing the cut so we are down to manageable 10 runners.
I dont like Money for Nothing at All so thats out ( down to nine runners ) and the rest are quite closely matched making this a tight affair .
The two i like for a FAP Dutch are COUP DE GRACE and CUSHEEN BRIDGE now neither are super stars but the former has a bit of scope and stays well and at full race pace so will be in the hunt all the way round whilst Cusheen Bridge often leaves its charge to late and is often caught out or knocked back and if these off the pace types make a mistake it can prove very costly so this will need to get some nice cover and get a good slot no later than three out then move thru what will be a few beaten horses as we have pace setters in this which should cause its own set of problems so a tidy Fap Dutch is the order in this.
Stick Rascal in for the PP

RESULT : 

Race 2 : Tidy little Novice Hurdle now with just the 8 runners but iun truth this looks little more than a match between CLONDAW BANKER and OUR KAEMPER as they alreay look a cut above the remainder which are made of ex pointers and failed ring types and i will be quite shocked if one of these dont take this down and with the dutch paying just under 1.50 i think this is an outstanding bet and wont look elsewhere.

RESULT  : 

Race 3 : Next up its a Hcap Chase ..these and Beginners are the two i really dont like as both can prove very hard to predict as your angle of attack or window of opportunity in these is so much smaller...COCKTAILS AT DAWN looks a nice type and looks a ready made chaser and will be winning races for sure and could today prove to be well ahead of the handicapper although from a pro bet perspective i think the 3.80 or so for the FAP on GENEROUS RANSOM is a good looking bet and should be included into any decision you make , both in the PP for me.

RESULT  : 

Race 4 : This looks a cracker 9 runners in this Byrne Group Listed Event over 2m1f  Claret Cloak is the class act but wont give the weight away without a superhuman run and thats not happening today...ONE TERM  is the bet for me here at 12/1 unbeaten over fences and because its had a year or so off its a crazy price progressive and classy and right in the middle weight wise ..like a good girlfriend is both giving and receiving ;) and this is a knocking EW bet.
Elsewhere and for the PP im Having Bellenos and Stone Light.

RESULT  : 

Race 5 : SIGN OF A VICTORY And thats me outta time....with Geverey Chambertain and Restless Harry in the Finale