Monday, 13 July 2015

Ayr on Monday

Well folks that was an exciting weekend of racing with some fab results with the highlight for me nabbing a 48.0 Winner ( on Betfair as the actual Industry SP was only 20/1...so a massive difference between the two and this highlights the case for betting Betfair with the better priced runners ) along with many others and a host of big priced placed runners which make for big profits when included into Acca,s and im very happy with the way its going and im hoping to nab one or two today and to see what Dalgleish and Goldie have running as they are the Ayr specialists.

Tough start at Ayr with a hot and tricky looking Maiden which looks a good spot for STYLISH BOY to open his account after being pulled from a hotter race on Saturday to take his chance here.
But maidens are not really my thing so will wont dwell on that too much and move on.

Tough small field Hcap next and its a Dalgleish / Goldie dutch....simples, and the same comment applies to race 3.

Just a Goldie dutch for race 4 and a Dalgleish dutch for race 5 with race 6 being a Goldie dutch and you may as well follow the trend for the finale....well that was a simple breakdown for AYR ;-))...

Elsewhere i think and EW Double with

Wolv 1940 - SCUISTREE
&
Wolv 2110 - LYRICAL

Is a pretty decent bet but not really a Longbow bet just a plain ol decent form bet and you could include Swordbearer in the 1545 Weth for an EW Trixie...thoughts...Because thats it from me today..enjoy or Snooze ( because you wont miss much )....;)

                                      

Saturday, 11 July 2015

Sizzling Satdee

Morning All ,
                     And its a Blockbuster Sat we have with 4 prime plus meetings at Chester , Newmarket, York and Ascot and a lot to work through.
Yesterday went as expected with a decent win on Hcap blot Bareesh @ 5/1 and a cover all bets Lay on Mustadeem @ 11/4f so not much to grumble about but i would like to hit a couple of decent winners today as Sniper has taken the weekend off as he does but he is preparing a card only i dont for where so lets take a look and see what crops up.

York has a run on some bonkers looking Hcaps which you may think is ideal for senor Longbow but it in fact makes it even harder as my ideal field size is 10-14 and in truth i do a lot better profit wise on the midweek gaff tracks than these fancy meetings but thats where Sniper comes in as he is the opposite.
So i will take a look through York to start the day off and work my way thru with a summary at the end of it all.
YORK
RACE 1:
Another insane Hcap but one in which i fancy a few so i will nominate 3 to follow ,
1. YOUR FIRED @ 14/1 - 3rd
Consistent performer at this level and beyond and easily capable of taking a hand if hes in the mood.
2. MUSADDAS @ 7.60 - 2nd
Obvious selection to many as the run to beat Jacob Black looks rock solid now and has an obvious leading chance more so given how poor or inconsistent most of these are and this still has a few pound more in the locker.
3. DREAM SPIRIT @ 20/1
This is from the Haggas yard that likes a winner or two here at York and this very lightly raced type could easily have been primed for this having shown some smart form last term and then to make a belated seasonal reappearance in the Victoria Cup where he did nothing racing on the wrong side this could and should be cherry ripe now and a much better run should be expected.
RESULT / NOTES : A good race for us with our EW Dutch hitting both 2nd & 3rd so a nice profit to start.

RACE 2:
ASTRONEUS will take some beating in this if staying the trip and there is every reason to think he will as he has been very strong in his races over 1m4f and running on/staying on at the end and is one that is on the upgrade and with form in the book equal to anything else on offer this will have a big say in the outcome, leading player and the one to beat.
Of the bigger priced runners i think WAKEA could run well and is worth including as an EW bet @ 20/1 with more to come this could provide a shock.
RESULT / NOTES : Astroneus 1st@ 5.90 ;-)


RACE 3:
Listed Sprint is next and i have eyes for three runners only ,
1. TAKE COVER @ 6.20
Led for a long way lto in a really tough Kings Stand and if this gets away smartly and is allowed to bowl along he could have them all strung out with 1f to go but will be making a go of it regardless as he is also last years winner of this race so has to be respected on that form alone.
2. COTAI GLORY @ 9/1 - 3rd
This Charlie Hills inmate could be very special , forget the run in the Abbaye as that was a non event for a host of reasons and focus on A) The Flying Childers when with the race at his mercy and 2L clear he jinked sharply causing the rider to unseat but for my records im having that as a win as he wasnt for passing that day and B) The Molcomb Stakes where he made all and crushed them including 3 runners rated around 105 which is strong enough form on its own to merit consideration then factor in a few pounds of strengthening and build over the winter and a few pounds of obvious improvement to come and this is already a 112 rated runner in waiting and is imo a group horse proper.
3. KINGSGATE NATIVE @ 16/1
This is the old boy in the yard but is still showing flashes of class and brilliance and although not a proper group horse these days is certainly upto taking down an event like this as this is much weaker than what he has been facing and has to included as any form roll backs and he is well clear.
RESULT / NOTES : COTAI GLORY was a good 3rd for us @ 12.50

RACE 4 :
The JOHN SMITHS CUP is a historic race which is also a nightmare for punters and i will again just have a look at three against the field in which i feel could run well.
1. FIRE FIGHTING @ 14/1
From the MJ yard this stern type has enough ability to win but it typical of the MJ outfit as he rarely puts two same runs in together but as he hasnt won for a couple today could be the day.
2. HOMAGE @ 33/1 - Non Runner
Another from the Haggas yard and another that comes here on the back of a light campaign and could be ready to empty those bookie satchels.
3. VOICE OF A LEADER @ 14/1
Another lightly raced type from a yard that could do with another Rodrigo de Triano to get them back in the spot light and who knows..this could be a spring board?.

RACE 5:
Nothing for me here as its a maiden...

RACE 6:
This is more me with another meaty Hcap and i think LONGBOW should be backing LONGSHADOW @ 16/1 ;-) , but i also like the look of ARDLUI @ 16/1 who is proven over the trip which is very important here and is in good form with a solid 3rd lto over this 2m and dont be surprised if Grumeti @ 33/1 runs a big race.

And thats it for York with some excellent racing ( for the bookies ) and a few decent ( ish ) bets to be had im sure we can turn a profit there somehow;).

So we move onto Chester or the home of the Good Doctor as we say and the first race is swerved along with the second and i should swerve the 3rd however im going to have a nibble on LIGHTNING THUNDER @ 16/1 or bigger as this was a classy sort last term that seems to be struggling for confidence , been pulling far too hard in its races and been way to keen however if he can settle and find his groove he will beat this lot fairly easy but based on what we have seen so far this year thats a leap of faith Grand Canyon styleeee but at 16/1 - 20/1 im prepared to give him a chance.
And the remainder of this card holds nothing for me so that is a swift appraisal for Chester with the best bet being just follow the Doctor as he always gets a winner or two here.

Next up its NEWMARKET and it looks a damn good day there ,

RACE 1 : 
Cracking Handicap to start the day and a 2 way dutch is my bet here ,
1. QUICK DEFENCE @ 8/1
&
2. WESTERN RESERVE @ 9/1 - 1st
Both are Khalid runners but for different yards and both are entitled to run here although neither have outstanding claims but i think this is a rock solid EW dutch.

RESULT/NOTES : Another excellent start to the day with a very tasty winner for a decent profit and an easy day.

RACE 2:
This is not normally a race i would get involved in however Hannon/Hughes have won this very prestigious race 3 times in the last five years with the likes of King Torus , Etsikdhar and OLYMPIC GLORY so this is obviously a race they keep something special back for and you can gtee this will be going all out its also rather surprising that this is currently the 12/1 rank outsider even tho its already got good looking winning form when hosing up in its maiden at Epsom..i simply have to be involved at the price, TONY CURTIS.
RESULT/NOTES : A solid enough run to get 3rd at an amazing price..5.2 the FAP is insane on an SP of 12/1...;)

RACE 3:
The Bunbury Cup with 18 runners all charging down this can get messy.
FIELD OF DREAM is a very interesting ride for Joseph O'Brien as this very very inconsistent type who has Won This race before in 2013 with victory and a placed run in two Royal Hunt Cups has all the ability required to race at the top table but so so often fails to turn up and delivers little but it must be said that on his day he can win and he loves these big field events and at 66/1 is well worth a few EW pennies from anyones pocket.
I also feel Jallota can run a big race today with Crowley doing the steering there is no one better in these monster fields as he is a master navigator.
ONE WORD MORE for the Easterby team could also outrun his price in what looks a very tough race.
RESULT/NOTES : ONE WORD MORE was an excellent 2nd for us @ 20.50


RACE 4: 
DARLEY JULY CUP now and its one the years leading sprint races and a decent field of 14 have arrived to fight for the £500,000 prize money on offer.
This is not a Longbow selection race so im writing down the selections from Sniper who states he simply cannot get away from the top three in the betting.
1. BRAZEN BEAU @ 3.60
Australian speedball that was very unlucky lto and looks another southern hemisphere class act and will take all the beating in this.
2. MUTHMIR @ 13.00
Looked one of Europes leading candidates for sprinter of the year at one stage but always has a story to tell and he needs now to finally convince and stamp his authority on this field to be taken seriously only just touched off lto this extra 1f will suit and will be a major player as a group horse racing against mainly handicappers.
3. MUHAARAR @ 3.75 - 1st
Won the Greenham then trounced a super strong field in the Commonwealth Cup at Ascot beating the excellent and very speedy Limato by almost 4L in what was one of the years best sprinting performances seen , loves the trip, loves the ground and holds a host of these on current and past form and for me is the one to be on.
Should be a great race but i cant see past the front three as they look a class apart.
RESULT/NOTES : Muhaarar Wins to make it a cracking day ;)

RACE 5:
BALLYDOYLE should win this maiden with just an ounce of improvement ~ 1st @ 4/7

RACE 6:
&
RACE 7: Offer me nothing so both are avoided.

Another quality card tho with some exceptional racing to enjoy although really decent bets are hard to find with most speculative at best but we do have one or two to keep us ticking over.

Finally we go to ASCOT for what also looks a very tough card and tricky for punters..no dutches for me here just one Longbow selection per race..every race..lets get the rags home!!..

RACE 1 : MEADWAY @ 20/1 - Unplaced
RACE 2 : CABLE BAY @ 6/1 - Unplaced
RACE 3 : RAYS THE BAR @ 50/1 - 1st @ 48.0
RACE 4 : CAPTAIN BOB @ 14/1 - 2nd @ 7.2
RACE 5 : SUPREME OCCASION @ 16/1 - 2nd @ 14.60
RACE 6 : OCEANE @ 10/1 - Unplaced

So thats it a wrap up of todays main action and events ,
BEST BETS : All of them if they win ;-) , but none are absolute stand outs although a few are decent i will be pick n mixing them up in EW accaa's in the hope i can pick 4 or 5 placed and hit something nice...but then on a day like today drawing a big fat blank wouldn't have me concerned.

Friday, 10 July 2015

Frilling Friday

Morning World ,
                            And before all the Grammar Geeks jump up im aware of my play on words so dont bother ;)...
               Today we have a racing Tri-fecta with meetings at Ascot , York and Newmarket...wow what a Friday...this is how racing should be..quality racing at the top tracks.........not always great for the punter tho but hopefully we will find one or two bets to keep us ticking over.

I will only be covering the races i like to look at for a bet or the ones in which i feel i have an angle but Sniper may well cover the cards in more stringent detail but i do know hes Playing Golf today so efforts from him may be thin on the ground.

So we start the day looking thru the YORK card and its a maiden to start and Ajaya looks a shoo in for that so we move swiftly on the next which is a Nursery and this im interested in as there is a chasm in the weights and these youngsters often struggle to give huge amounts away and the two i like in this as options are the two Easterby runners who at 14/1 & 16/1 ( 3.7 each a fap ) are getting over a stone in allowances their form is weak but they are open to any amount of improvement and i like the idea of a fap dutch in this smallish field with top three getting a pay day and that is my call.

 Group 3 Sprint is next with 14 runners which makes it ideal punting material although form would indicate this will be a duel Between Wokingham winner Interception and 7f specialist Kyoshi but at 3.85 & 7.0 offer little value even in a fav based dutch so i think it may pay to stick with some York specialists.
AETNA and  SPINATRIX  are two i really like along with Irish Raider NEWSLETTER.
Aetna needs some cut to show her true form and hasnt had it yet but the ground should be nigh on perfect for her today and with some luck in running could have a major say in the outcome , Spinatrix wins regular enough and holds her form well enough to suggest that she is upto winning again and a repeat of the run when winning the Coral Sprint at York last year puts her right in the frame and Newsletter is a career raider who could be a hcap blot and priced at 12/1,13/1 and 14/1 these are well worth an EW dutch or similar.

Big 16 runner Hcap next and its a proper Longbow race.
The first name on my list is EMERALDHZ at around 20/1 , this won over this 1m4f trip lto at Thirsk in a race much weaker than this but it did piss up so theres your balance and i think this filly is well upto racing and winning in this better grade race and the odds are i think very fair.
MARMION is sure to run a huge race after running Apertarix so close over CD recently and as a leading player i find the 8/1 a rather decent price.
In truth the harder i look through this race the harder i find it to pull myself away from the first 5 in the betting as they all arrive with rock solid form and those im wanting to back seem to have a mountain to climb but CHANCERY at 33/1 could also sneak a place if things fall right and does have the benefit of being stabled at the " touch shit turn into Gold " O'Meara yard so who knows..anything could happen.

Another Hcap next and another decent size with 16 runners but this is a 5f sprint and it could be carnage..which is generally good for me ;).
Bogart is the stand out class in this race but is less predictable than a mad woman on her menstrual cycle so like the woman is best left alone.I would say you want to be looking at something thats not done much for a while and could pop up at a big price but if i did that we would be down to around 4 runners!!..;(.
SILVANUS could surprise having run a decent enough race lto and dont worry about the form turn around ( s ) as is the case with sprinters they take it in turns to beat each other and the 33/1 is big enough to throw a few pennies at.
ADDICTIVE DREAM is also 33/1 and is the one that finished ahead of Silvanus lto in that Conditions event and could easily enough place along with NOBLE STORM but the truth here is that " IF " Bogart can run to anywhere near what he is currently able then this is as good as over as i have him a mile clear in what will be his easiest task to date for quite some time and if he is ever to regain the winning thread then surely it has to be today and i suppose at 7/1 its worth having as some cover in what looks a treacherous race for punters.

18 Runner Hcap is the days next play and it doesnt get any easier but BAREESH looks a blot to me rated 80 after winning his maiden effortlessly and is getting upto a stone in weight from his peers including those rated higher and lower than itself and could have been put in here very lightly and the 9/1 looks a sporting bet although i would have preferred 14 or 16/1 in truth to make it proper palatable.
Elsewhere i think CORREGIO will run another solid race along with CACTUS VALLEY who at 11/1 and 40/1 offer sporting EW options.

In the finale we have two horses who ran no sort of race at all and had proper excuse to explain them so i think at the current odds they are worth an EW dutch to prove they were fluke bad runs and much better is to be seen , the horses in question are SIR DOMINO & SUPER KID  at between 16/1 - 20/1 this is a cracking fap dutch.

Summary : In truth this is a super tough day with no stand out bets as such although the finale really interests me as does Emeraldhz & Spinatrix but its not a day to get too involved in , i will combine them all in some EW accas and hope i hit a few places but im keeping the stakes small and liability limited and i may Lay Mustadam @ 5.0 to offset some or all of todays costs.

Over to NEWMARKET now in the hope that something will shine like a beacon through the fog off handicapping war.....
Forget the first race here and move straight to RACE 2 which is a very decent looking Nursery and i think JUST EMMA is worth a look at 25/1 having run well enough in both the Woodcote and the Queen Mary this big ease in grade will give her time to settle and she could easily out run her price.
  Update : No further updates for today , no time and i must leave the office..ttfn , have a great day.

Thursday, 9 July 2015

Thrilling Thursday....

Morning Folks ,
Well i had another interesting day yesterday hitting yet another decent priced winner but alas nothing really to back it up but we still managed to make a decent profit from the day and Snipers PPL and Stat Lay efforts are ticking over and the one a day hit another NAP with the Hat Trick beckoning today and its a good day to be a punter as we find ourselves blessed with some great action today from Donny and Newmarket and Epsom in the evening so i think we will hopefully see a glut of decent bets out today ( all will be posted on Punters Pal ) .

Where do we start today?? , well for me ( Longbow ) its a trip to Carlisle first to see what Hcap blots they may have and its interesting that there has been no early money for LE DELUGE in the 1645 as these Arnold runners often attract suspicious support but today nothing so maybe it wont be trying again but at 33/1 its the type of price they like to strike with so keep an eye on that one along with RASSELAS who is also 33/1 and is another that is impossible to guess but either could run into a place or better on any given day and this race is the type thats ripe for a back door plot.

In the finale MOON ARC is interesting upped in trip having not shown any staying qualities of late but at around 25/1 could be worth a try but in truth thats about it with not much to really go on at Carlisle one can only hoope the two main meetings will provide some decent value bets for me to put in my quiver.

NEWMARKET

The day starts off with the Bahrain Trophy and its a decent small field affair but offers nothing for me however we then move onto the July Stakes which is a sprint and is a decent sized punting race and for me its a 3 way Dutch with solid reasoning.
AREEN for me has the best form on offer , looks a likely type and was running strong at the end of its last race and i think this has a lot more to offer and at 5.6 is worthy of inclusion along with two relative outsiders im really keen and these will get the bigger portion of my bets and they are EXPERTO CREED who cost a staggering £290,000 as a yearling and was well backed fto and then won over CD in an average time but won very easily and i think there could be an absolute ton of improvement to come from this and although this isnt an exact science i would be very surprised if this cant manage a run in the low to mid 90's and the 10/1 is a solid price,lastly we will have SHALAA the supposed 2nd string for Hannon but one that has a better speed profile and stock figures than the Dettori ridden 3rd Fav and the 16/1 looks a belting price given the context of this race and this already has the numbers to suggest a place is well on the cards but this is a very strong looking race and nothing can be taken as a given. - BooooM as SHALAA is 1st @ 20/1 ;-)

The Prince of Wales is next and this is a Sniper type race but i do like the look of the Cumani runner Second Step who is well worth racing in this grade but i dont know if the 5.70 is a good price in this so i will defer to Sniper to see what he makes of it.
**Second Step was 2nd @ 6.20

The next race is the Unibet Hacap and with 11 runners and a 101% book this is a perfect race for me so lets hope we have something strong here.
Well its not the strongest selection ive ever had but GIBEON @ 33/1 is well worth a go.Its very unusual to see Hannon n Hughes partner one of the rank outsiders but with others looking far more compliant its easy to reason with however this son of Cape Cross has some decent enough form to suggest he has the ability to win one of these if he can get his act together and i think Hughesy should again try to make all as its my opinion that a repeat of the run when 2nd in the Investec Hcap at Epsom would be good enough for a place at the minimum and a win could easily be on the cards as he was beaten in the end that day by a very smart and promising type in Stravagante ( rated 100 ) where he led a steady pace and quickened it up with 2f to go to get outstayed as they come inside the 1f pole but had the remainder strung out and that is some very smart form imo and like i say a repeat of that run would make things very interesting. - 2nd @ 25.60

Its a maiden next and its an auto swerve for me however i will share some info i have been given and the word is TURAATHY is very smart indeed and has been burning the gallops up and at 11/1 makes for a very interesting bet against some with decent form. - *Ran on for mid div but didnt look a speed ball.

Another maiden and no info so we will move along quickly....To the HRAC Stakes and this is another that holds nothing is another swiftly left alone and that brings us to the finale which is a 8 runner Hcap and this is one we can have a look at.
Inexile " back in the day " had the ability to murder these but its win rate of late is in lower class and is poor but it still retains some ability so it wouldnt be daft to think this can win however the 20/1 i think given the race context is a poor price as i would want 33/1 to even warm my hands up and as any of the front 3 could win they are also openly vulnerable so a dutch on the field would be my bet.

So thats Newmarket complete and not a great deal to aim at there in truth with the better bets being speculative at best and this could be a day when Sniper takes center stage as he has a much better read on the group and better class races.

So...
               DONCASTER
                                      awaits.......
And we start the day here with a perfect punting race, 13 runners and a Hcap which is perfect for me and although its 130/1 Fine n Dandy could be interesting as it continues to tumble down the weights but more realistically Woody Bay or Jacobs Pillar look to be the best bets although pricewise there isnt anything in this that can be called great value and im not that tempted to call anything here.

The next three races are all swerved for various reason which brings us to the 1635 which is a tight small field Hcap and i cant get away from FIESOLE which at 3.8 is not a typical Longbow big priced selection but is such a typical Hcap debutante for Cumani its impossible to ignore this strapping son of Montjeu will be winning soon and today could be the start of a very rewarding career. - 3rd @ 7/2

In the next we have another relative shorty in BALLIOL who has any amount of scope and has imo been let in here very lightly and i think some EW singles n Double with Fiesole is a very good looking bet or even just a fap double as i think both have outstanding fap claims ( Shackled n Drawn- 2nd @ 9/1 also looks very interesting at 12/1 which is a typical Longbow belting bet ).- 3rd @ 6/1
And HOT SPICE will probably win the finale so i may stick that in with the above two for a treble.
- 1st @ 2.59

So not quite as much as i hoped for but we do have one or two bets that look very interesting and it should still be a fun day.....right im off to see what Sniper fancies now..TTFN x.

Tuesday, 7 July 2015

Tiresome Tuesday from Longbow >>>>>

Ah well its another weary dreary day of drudgery that calls itself Tuesday Racing and its far from being a glamfest its actually a snorefest but we do at least have two day Flat meetings to look thru and examine with Wolvo on the AW and Ponte on the Turf and both tracks are uniques in their own way and both will suit a certain type of runner we just have to able to spot that certain type...;)

Goldie Rounded of the Goldie/Dalgleish show at Ayr with yet another tasty winner or two with Two Winners and Two Seconds from 6 races giving him a great haul over the two days and this must be remembered for future meetings.

So LONGbow will again take a measured perusal of the days offerings and see if anything pops out,

PONTEFRACT

Race 1 today is a small field Nursery and offers nothing for me however i do know SHOW STEALER  ( 1st @ 3.11 ) is massively fancied by Sniper so it may be worth checking out his review of that over at Punters Pal.

The next is a no go for me as well ( 5 runner hcap ) but Race 3 is a interesting race  a 1m event that is both Class 1 and Listed with a perfect punting size of 9.
Temptress will be a red hot fav for this after a sterling run when getting placed lto in the Royal Hunt Cup and a repeat of that run may well be good enough but readers of my book will know that its as rare as an eclipse when a horse runs a lifetime best runs again next to the same level ( this doesnt include juveniles and lightly campaigned types open to bags of scope ) so at between Even Money and 6/4 im quite happy to look elsewhere as the balance of this betting book will ensure healthy prices throughout the field.
Temptress also looks to be a bit of an Ascot specialist with three recent runs there over 1m and all clocked at 1m40+ with the slowest hand timed at 1m42 which isnt exceptional by any means when you compare Epsom specialist Gratzie who has been running the same trip ( + 144Yards ) in a time almost identical and with almost half a furlong further to run but as mentioned Gratzie herself seems to only enjoy the cambers of Epsom so that could prove tricky as a selection.
Merry Me has form closely tied with Gratzie and does need to improve slightly to figure but that is not out of the question as this lightly raced filly could just have a few lbs extra to show and is right up there speedwise with the others.
No Poppy wont be a million miles away either but is rated to come 4th or 5th at best so is left alone by me.Queen Catrine has loads of ability but hates a battle and often goes down like the Belgrano when eye balled and i dont like putting investment into those types so i given a wide berth, there are two runners i really like in this tho and i will dutching these both at 10/1+,
PELERIN and REKDHAT both have excellent stand alone time figures from me both are rated correctly and both have the form past and present to make themselves a nuisance and i think that unless a few of these race right upto their marks or race carreer bests then these two could easily have this to themselves based on pure speed figures alone Temptress actually has 2L to find to just to match them..so " if " they race true to form then the fav has an awful lot to do and on that basis at 6/4 could easily qualify as LOTD...

Race 4 is perfect for me as it allows me to explore some creditable form lines and allow for some weight adjustments which might provide a decent priced selection.
Another Dutch bet for me as i like both the 7f raiders dropping back to 6f at a track with a stiff finish and they are EQUITY RISK and GRISSOM both of whom should run smart races and at 6/1 and 9/1 offer plenty of win or EW value.

Race 5 is left alone and so is race 6 whilst the finale offers only an Apprentice race to finish on and i would say Pamushana is probably the better bet here but Cumani might be taking the piss here with the jolly so is best left alone.

Over at WOLVERHAMPTON...
We start off there with a nice 6f Hcap with a pleasant 12 runners and we have old favourite RED CAPE running here and arriving in no form what so ever but is now racing off a weight some 14lb lower than his last decent CD effort but at 20/1 has to be worth sticking with for some EW fun as it will win again eventually and has become a lemming horse ( one you would follow off a cliff ) because you know the day you dont back it it will win.
But i cant leave my fortune in the hands of that one horse it simply must have some cover so i will also have DANZOE who has Won or been placed in 4 of its last 5 W/P efforts and although not great value does have the able assistance of AW magician Kirby so anything is possible and an EW dutch is well worth it.
Race 2 is dire but anything Loughlane runs in these events has to be considered strongly and with a CD winner and the booking of Kirby suddenly this race is of interest and i may have a little EW nibble on this ( LOGANS LAD ).
The third race is best left alone along with the fourth and fifth but Race 6 is a good punting race and BOOGANGOO simply has to be backed EW at around 8/1 ran last ( 5/5 ) lto but that was a much better race than this and all the horses in front are rated between 76-96 and given it was only beaten 5L by Enlace means that 5/5 form alone is good enough to win this and it had two rock solid runs in G5's prior gives one every confidence that this could shoulder carry most of these and win well and the price is imo rather generous.

The final two races offer nothing so that wraps up Wolverhampton and racing today.

SUMMARY:

EW TRIXIE ( s )

Red Cape/Danzoe - 1st @ 18.69 ( 16/1 )
Equity Risk/Grissom - Both Unplaced
Pelerin/Redkhat - 3rd @ 11/1 & 4th @ 12/1 ( Unplaced for bets )
Logans Lad ( EW L15 ) - 2nd @ 9/1

Combining all the Top rated ( Lead selections ) in multi £1 EW Trixies ( 32 bets ) would have resulted in a Net Profit of £87.00

BOOGANGOO EW NAP - 4th @ 11/2 ( Unplaced for bets )

**Bet models are guides of what i do and performance will always be ranked alongside Level Stake EW singles as Multiple bets cannot be used as a guide to performance or profitability.


Monday, 6 July 2015

Dull Monday brief from Longbow.

Morning World ,
Im ( Longbow ) back again as the days racing is far from eventful but we do have another chance to crack Ayr and as i mentioned Dalgleish mopped up with winners and placed horses galore and Goldie hitting the post in several races and its a fair bet that if you Dutched Doubled/Trebled them two you could get very lucky indeed , here is a snap shot of there performance yesterday...

RACE
1. Goldie 3rd @ 125/1               Dalgleish - No Runners
    Goldie Unplaced

2. Goldie Unplaced                   Dalgleish 1st @ 8/1

3. Goldie 3rd @ 9/2                   Dalgleish Unplaced

4. Goldie 3rd @ 11/1                 Dalgleish - No Runners

5. Goldie 2nd @ 14/1                Dalgleish 1st @ 12/1 ( RFC Paid £168 )

6. Goldie - No Runners            Dalgleish 2nd @ 11/2

7. Goldie 3rd @ 9/1                  Dalgleish 2 x Unplaced
    Goldie 4th @ 20/1
So as you can see they had quite a decent day between them and i would suggest they are probably well worth following again and should be closely followed at all the Northern Tracks ( Plus Wolv ).

AYR
Well the first race is an odd one with the three market leaders being well clear on all known form however this maiden also gives us some ridiculously priced runners from our northern friends and a couple from the likes of Anne Duffield who trains a Qatar racing son of Compton Place that is sure to improve from its fto effort yet is 100/1 and Dalgleish has two at 33/1 and 66/1 and the interesting Bassett Bleu at 140/1 so not a race to really get involved in but an interesting one none the less if i was there i would probably just fap the Dalgleish runners for a giggle.

Not a lot to recommend in the 2nd event however in this small field and at 6/1 a piece a fap dutch on the two Goldie runners could pay but they both need to improve.

In the 1505 a little punt on TADALAVIL at around 30/1 EW is worth a look now racing off a nothing weight of 45 its weighted to win however it must be pointed out thats its got nothing else going for it and is not a Longbow selection but just a thought. - 2nd @ 20.50

PERSONAL TOUCH in the 1535 is an interesting runner at 16/1 as this has raced at a better level previously and has some interesting form to its name and if this can translate its winning AW form back to turf then it will be in the mix im sure * LONGBOW selection. - 1st @ 16.50

the 1605 is beyond woeful....

In the 1635 we have another Longbow selection in the shape of NEUF DES COEURS who at 4.3 is i think an excellent bet this daughter of Champs Elysees was staying on powerfully when last out and slamming a field at Muss over 1m4f and this 1m5f will be right up her street plus i think its Dalgleish's best chance of a winner today with Fanning on board if i did Naps then this would be it* LONGBOW selection. - 5th ( never a factor, strange as they raced in rear which they dont normally do , however Jim Goldie did win the race with Braes of Lochash @ 11/1  )

the 1705 sees the return of ROTHESAY CHANCER who at 16/1 and for in form Goldie looks a standing dish for a place in an event like this although he may be around 6lb heavy but with some luck who knows at 16/1 i think its worth a bet * LONGBOW selection. - Unplaced , never did much , disappointing

PITT RIVERS EW in the finale for fun only.....

And that kinda wraps up the day , in summary ,

EW TRIXIE
1. PERSONAL TOUCH @ 16/1 - 1st @ 16/1
2. NEUF DES COEURS @ 5/1
3. ROTHESAY CHANCER @ 16/1

Small stakes day as its day to forget really, have fun , play hard and see you all tmrw.

Sunday, 5 July 2015

Quiet Sunday ( By LONGBOW )

Well Howdy Folks ,
 Its been a while since anything has been posted in fact almost a month as team Phoenix have been going through some changes and had a few weeks away contemplating all that is done and what is required.
The new format of Punters Pal which is to coincide with the book launch wasn't an easy one as we got some usual and expected thoughts that were not that complimentary so we tweaked and changed things a bit and in the end it all started to look a bit fragmented and disjointed so i have streamlined a bit in the hope it makes for an easier and more engaging read and of course i hope it still brings in the winners and winning bets it has done to date but trying to get the perfect format is not the easiest task in the world and i think it will take a few months and some some help from the members to make it as fluid as i like as a few of my writing partners and collaborators seem to be too interested in furthering their own work rather than helping out in general to make a better rounded project and i think it may come down to this being just me doing it all on my own as a separate entity which is time consuming but im hoping the members will donate via the button on the Punters Pal page enough to make the time spent a worthwhile endeavor.
That in itself tho is a chore as most people want everything for nothing as their is a deluge / torrent / excess or plethora of Tipping , racing etc sites all trying to steer you in the wrong direction claiming this that and the other so you find people on the punt rarely stay long enough or focus strong enough to see the bigger picture and if you read my book a lot of this will and is explained so trying to get people to part with even a fiver seems like a gargantuan effort and is often at the back end of some derogatory remarks but those that do complain often forget how much we have helped them over the years in fine tuning their own betting or punting experience because so many punters already think they have all the answers " i don't need any help im a god already " or similar is something i come across a lot and they stick with this line until i ask them what their PnL is for the month year or last two years then its generally silence while they think of the " hard luck stories " they want to regale me with...
PPL , Stat Lays , One a Day , The Place Pots and myself ( Longbow ) have all shown very healthy profits this year although im in truth more of a value seeker and fun punter than the more erstwhile and professional Sniper ( Mainly group races and profit generating bets ) but the likes of Eric are also very consistent but need to be followed as a system bet and not an every now n then bet as they like all good tipsters hit a lot of peaks n troughs.So we will dibble dabble through July treading carefully as we go through a couple more weeks of tweaking but there will be a few race cards posted and i myself will weigh in with at least 2 or three selections every day so keep your eyes peeled and should you have any questions or require any betting advice then feel free to email , Facebook or Twitter me.

A couple for Sunday....

AYR is a quirky Scottish track that often plays to the locals and Dalgleish and Goldie like a winner or two here and look out for southern trainers sending the odd runner up and never overlook the often way overpriced Alan Berry runners as he likes it here n Hamilton ( awful trainer but does hit a few big priced winners ).
**Dalgleish Wins the 2nd race with Corton Lad @ 8/1
**Dalgleish Wins again in the 5th with Argaki @ 12/1 ( on my long list )

14:30 MYSTERIAL @ 4.90 ( All Longbow selections are to be taken as EW bets )
On a hat trick after rattling up a quick double over 10f at Nottingham and Newcastle plus points are the rider Phil Dennis he has ridden him last three efforts now with a 2nd in a Hands n Heels App race then for the double and on each occasion he has tried to make all with the win at Notts the stand out when trouncing them by 5L but winning an egg n spoon race off just 49 is a lot different to this...normally.
Yes hes now up to 60 so its an 11lb rise over the two races but he did start his career of 80 so i dont think this will cause too big n issue now he has the winning thread and the ground should be fine but i wouldnt fancy it any softer than good.
The field including Henpecked and Moon Arc have all at one time or another shown some ability and all have a low grade win in them but ALL are far from consistent and none can be trusted to stay or run their true race so all things considered this Mysterial has to be given a vote of confidence when faced by opponents of such paucity.
**MYSTERIAL led until the 1f pole and just weakened away to run a well beaten 6th, too much weight now and better class told ( and the ground is softer than i would have liked, prefers good/firm ground ).

15:00 TESTA ROSSA @ 5.20
Its hard to think or believe a horse has been " laid out " for a race worth only £2k however in Div 2 of the above race we may have such a thing as Testa Rossa is last Years winner here racing off the same mark and even tho this years efforts have been woeful it wouldn't be wide of the mark to think that Goldie has this wannabe burger van special lined up for a repeat along with SPOKESPERSON ( worthy cover bet ) who i think will also run a close race , i don't think Testa Rossa offers any value , i dont think he is a good horse and is generally quite dis-likable however i do feel that Goldie has a plot attitude with this and for that reason i will forgo all betting sense and include this in my list today.
*TESTA ROSSA was a very close 3rd @ 8.57 ( traded at 1.06 ) Whilst SPOKESPERSON traded at 1.01 and was 1st in a Dead Heat @ 9.20 so a very close race with our two runners trading at very low odds and hitting 1st n 3rd.

16:10 SOUND ADVICE @ 9.60
I think this could be a decent winner for the Dalgleish outfit , Won this race last year when making all and since July 2014 has rarely been seen outside of Group/Class 2 events as was the case when beaten lto but only by 3L and this is a much easier field to face and i think if given a soft lead he could have these strung out long before home and with the experienced Makin doing the steering he will be given every chance.
*Snipers Balducci runs in this against his wishes ~ outvoted~ he doesnt think it has any chance at the weights....but then he only had peanuts on it when it won lto he wants it to drop another 8lb-10lb so he has more racing options..maybe thats the plan?...was it a fluke lto?...wait n see but the word is no bet for that one.
** SOUND ADVICE was 2nd @ 7.34 ( beaten a neck ) in a 3 way finish..Very close again and at least i have something to come back  ;-)

16:45 JINKY @ 20.0
This is a proper Longbow selection with it being speculative at best , Won this same race last year this Jinky is a proper Ayr specialist with 10 wins or places at the track , ground is fine and with the stables regular rider on board this could easily out run its current price which i feel is very fair although it does have form to turn around and on paper looks to have all against him but this is the type of horse capable of doing just that on its day and this could be the day.
** Beaten fair n square , no complaints.

And that is my lot from Ayr on what can only be described as a very poor days racing and im not interested in the summer jumps in truth with barely a glance being had until November so enjoy the day and i will chat with you all thru the week as im going to place some EW trebles now and an EW double or two..GL, ttfn x.

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