Thursday, 24 July 2014

Woodcote Valiant Stakes

Evening All ,
                I have recently received numerous requests to post more and have agreed to cover both Group 1's and Most C1 Listed Events so i will be covering two races today with a full analysis on the Woodcote over at sunny Ascot.....
To be honest i dont mind on the hot n muggy evenings as i am struggling for sleep as it is so doing this will hopefully drain me a bit....


Right so onto this Listed Event " The Woodcote " a race for 3yr olds over 1m and its a fillies only event  on pretty much ideal racing ground good - good to firm , Just about every winner of this has never amounted to being much more than a solid Group 3 horse with previous winners being Strawberry Daiquiri ,  Soorah , Thistle Bird and Zibellina a decent bunch but not world beaters by any stretch and tbh this years renewal looks rather drab with most in the main having failed to fire this season , been regressive or are just plainly not that good.
On all known form and certainly on current form the run behind Rizeena in the Coronation Stakes ( just beaten 1L ) makes EURO CHARLINE almost bomb proof.

This daughter of Myboycharlie only had the one run as a 2 yr old winning its maiden on the AW very comfortably and it looked a cut above the grade that usually turn up at wolverhampton this was a thought obvious to Botti who then put her away until she had grown a bit more and after seeing the winter out she returned from the 4 month holiday to pop up in a Hcap over the CD of her maiden win which she won again very easily and looking like she may be upto something considerably better she was put into the Nell Gwyn ( Guineas Trial ) and she more than held her own only being denied by the very useful Sandiva..

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (4)14 Sandiva (IRE)R A Fahey39-0L Dettori7/2f
Held up, headway over 2f out, every chance over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, stayed on opened 3/1 touched 4/1 £2000-£500
2nd (14)½Euro CharlineM Botti39-0Andrea Atzeni5/1
Keen close up, not clear run over 1f out, switched right inside final furlong, ridden and ran on, not reach winner opened 15/2 £4800-£600
3rd (12)s.h10 Majeyda (USA)C Appleby39-0S De Sousa6/1
Prominent, riddeen to lead over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, lost 2nd near finish opened 8/1 touched 4/1 £4500-£1000 £2250-£500(x2)
With this jump in class tucked under her belt she had now proven to all she is worth taking on the top tier and she was put into the 1000 Guineas and to her credit she ran really well coming home 5th beaten just 3L and was another 2L in front of her Coronation victor Rizeena ( ran very flat this day ) but had improved enough to come away a further 2L clear of the Nell Gwynn winner Sandiva who ran back in 9th...so the improvement was forthcoming and she is still learning her tradeas was shown with that run in the Coronation in which she rubber stamped the form with Sandiva by beating her soundly , reversed the form with Lightning Thunder , beat Tapestry and My Titania from Ireland and tbh some may well have a case for saying she was unlucky not to win given how she was hampered in the run in..

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (7)Rizeena (IRE)C E Brittain39-0R L Moore11/2
Tracked leaders, ridden to lead 1f out, soon edged right, driven and ran on opened 13/2 touched 5/1 £5000-£700 £11000-£2000
2nd (8)¾Lesstalk In Paris (IRE)J C Rouget39-0C Soumillon15/2
Held up, ridden and no impression 2f out until ran on final furlong, not reach winner opened 8/1
3rd (1)hdEuro CharlineM Botti39-0Andrea Atzeni16/1
Tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, not much room when squeezed through on rail inside final furlong, not clear run and switched left, ran on opened 20/1
So with the continual line of improvement shown , easily the best form on offer , an in form stable and jockey and perfect conditions to race against largely inferior opposition i would be very surprised if she got beat in this  and i think the current 2.22 is a good price and should be snapped up as next best Kiyoshi was soundly beaten by the selection and with no known reasons for a form reversal she should be passed over , Woodland Aria has potential and could/should get involved in the finish and at 6.2 offers slivers of hope for the ew brigade , Gifted Girl is on a backwards curve and seems regressive and the remaining three just dont look good enough....so in summary i am advising a MAX WIN bet on EURO CHARLINE.

In the 19:30 @ York we have another Fillies Listed event this time over 1m2f and this should go to REGARDEZ a horse tipped by me previously for the Oaks but failed to stay imo but then dropped back in trip n grade for the Newcastle outing and absolutely hosed up 6L never off the bridle and a repeat of that will take it and at 3.5 looks a cracking bet and a MAX EW double on these two is a sure thing imo...

Saturday, 19 July 2014

The IRISH OAKS

TARFASHA...this is the one on form both current and historical and arrives from the eternally and perpetually in form stable of Dermot Weld and this should get the run of the race with so many b list o'brien runners out .

There only a couple of relevant dangers in this line up with the first of them being the Cumani trained VOLUME a horse that has little to find and will be better suited here than at Epsom where it rolled around on its cambers and will be running on towards the end when most have given up as most are non stayers...

And the 2nd real danger is BRACELET who lto Won the Ribbelsdale which form wise isnt as strong but did prove she stayed well enough although you can make a decent enough case for Lustrous on that showing as the Hannon inmate was running on strong at the end but it is puzzling as to why JoB has chosen to ride Tapestry here a horse that hasnt raced over more than 1m and doesnt look a stayer at all....maybe they are seeing a different animal at home.....

Summary : Straight forward WIN bet on Tarfasha here @ 3.4+ which i feel is a fair price although i wouldnt be too dismissive on Lustrous at 20/1 as this is a very good EW punt for those wanting some value.

Result : 

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (3)Bracelet (IRE)A P O'Brien39-0 hC O'Donoghue10/1
Dwelt, soon chased leaders, ridden in 3rd 2f out, improved to lead 1 1/2f out, stayed on well under pressure final furlong opened 9/1
2nd (10)nkTapestry (IRE)A P O'Brien39-0J P O'Brien13/2
Mid-division, pushed along in 7th 3f out, ridden in 6th 2f out, went 3rd 1f out, stayed on well final furlong, went 2nd at line opened 5/1
3rd (2)nk10 VolumeL M Cumani39-0K J Manning4/1
Led and clear, ridden under 3f out, headed 1 1/2f out, no impression on winner 1f out, dropped to 3rd at line opened 7/2
4th (7)Beyond Brilliance (IRE)A P O'Brien39-0 hAnastasia O'Brien80/1
In rear, ridden in last 2f out, progress on wide outer 1 1/2f out, moderate 7th 1f out, kept on without threatening go go 4th inside final furlong opened 66/1
5th (4)1Tarfasha (IRE)D K Weld39-0P J Smullen7/4f
Chased leaders, 3rd halfway, ridden in 2nd 2f out, dropped to 4th 1f out, no extra opened 2/1

Monday, 14 July 2014

Jean Prat



2nd...As this is a pic of SHIFTING POWER...
so Last three PRO TIPS have been 1st @ 3.0  , Unplaced ( although i did say what would/should win but bet against as i didnt like the price ) and a 2nd.....

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (2)Charm Spirit (IRE)F Head39-2O Peslier5/2j
2nd (7)Shifting PowerRichard Hannon39-2R Hughes5/2j
3rd (1)La Hoguette (FR)J C Rouget38-12G Benoist10/1
4th (5)nkYuftenW J Haggas39-2Andrea Atzeni9/1

Saturday, 12 July 2014

Darley July Cup

Evening All ,
                    Oh we are spoilt are we not..2 Group 1's in the same week and back to back ;-)..yesterday was a good day with a nice winner so can we follow up....lets hope so or i may have to put the Steak on Hold and order some Scampi...;PP..

Todays fare sees us looking at the Darley July Cup a cracking Sprint and its an oddity in some ways as this is quite often not won by what one would term as a traditional sprinter and what i mean by that is that this is often one by a horse that has competed in Group races over a series of longer trips and been found out for stamina but has found a niche when dropped back into sprinting and there natural class has shone brightest of all , recent exponents of this trip dropping , class dropping malarkey are Dream Ahead ( Beaten by Frankel over 1m then went on to win the Darley July Cup < this race  > next time out ) , Mozart ( 2nd in the Irish Guineas before winning this ) and Stravinsky ( 4th in the Jersey before Winning this ) are just three of the top of my head so if you have a horse that is super classy but cant get a mile proper then take the Dayjur route..go sprinting....

One for me that fits the bill is NOOZHOH CANARIAS  a Spanish horse with a great deal of ability as he showed when 2nd over 6f to Karakontie in the Legadere and tbh nothing would have lived with the winner that day so that run stands out as exceptional then he led the whole field for almost 7f at a searing pace in the Guineas before just tiring at the death and getting swamped by Kingman , Night of Thunder and Australia and Kingman went on to win the St James Palace stakes and the Irish Guineas and Australia won the Derby and he Noozah was only beaten 4L in total making that a very high quality run and performance and i feel at the odds this is worth a chance....a definite dark horse and a spanner in the works for the favs but he wont have it easy...but i was hoping to get more than the current 6.60...#Frustrated

We also get to see two true stars of the sprinting game in the shape of stablemates Slade and Sole Power and its SLADE POWER that will be of the gravest concern as i dont feel SOLE POWER likes this trip on softish ground ..in fact he has been soundly beaten on many an attempt at this and is easily overlooked but Slade Power is a different kettle of fish , can race over 5 or 6f , can race on any ground type and probably any surface and likes to come off a fast pace..which she is guaranteed here and the 3.7 is just a wee bit low to whet my appetite but could easily win this if in the same mood as his last run where he wore down Aljamaheer..cant be totally overlooked.

DUE DILIGENCE is the main O'Brien hope and his lto run gives him every chance as he was snatched up 50 yards from the line when probably held by Slade Power but coming 2nd wasnt a bad run at all and with more luck in running then this can easily make the frame or possibly win although i think he will have to improve again or have his feared opponents fail to come out on top and the 8.2 is still short imo...it should be double figures...

ALJAMAHEER is a frustrating sort...not quite good enough to be a champion miler yet lacks the early pace and pick up to be a champion sprinter and this has been obvious in his last two races the Abernant and the Jubilee , 3rd in both over 6f but all his best work was at the end of the race when running on but readily held...he needs further or a drop in class to win because he just is not a champion sprinter...yes he can sprint but not like a good un...

Finally we have a Champion Sprinter Elect...HOT STREAK a very classy animal indeed and as fast as shit off a stick but he is still green as grass , this can race on or off the pace and has a very good engine and a good leg action that allows for a good cruising speed , can quicken of a fast pace and lengthen and has a heart for a battle...but i think he will be in his prime aged 4, 5 and 6 , still tactically unsure still hangs his head and likes a swish of the tail and a little unreliable ...however.....this is one serious horse im talking about...this could be Europes leading sprinter no doubt but ..i dont know...i have this nagging doubt he is upto it just yet...but 11/1 does interest me....cracking EW bet and probably as good as any bet on the day but the fact all three runs as a 3 yr old have been over the minimum is a little off putting but it is what it is..hey ho..

The rest are much of a muchness, some very capable sprinters all with the back ability to run well or even surprise but they will need every bit of luck to go there way , every favourite to fail or perform bad and then it will need something more...

My 1,2 & 3 are..

1. SLADE POWER
2. HOT STREAK
3. NOOZHOH CANARIAS

With Due Diligence and Aljamaheer running for places and annoyance....

PRO BET : Well i wanted minimum 10/1 on Noozah to get involved and i think the scintillating bit of work after racing the other day has got the bookies running cold , to back a horse on what it could do rather than on what is has done you need a few extra risk points and im not getting them so unless there is a marked drift i am leaving it...but if it drifts to say 12/1 is that a good thing now...bugger...Slade Power is the likely winner on the balance of form but at the tight odds is worth taking on and hoping his race doesnt quite plan out....so i will be dutching HOT STREAK and DUE DILIGENCE @ 11/1 & 8/1 ( or better ) this is a solid bet as both are top quality and both are improving and they will have to....EW or Trade ?...gonna see how the morning goes....If the Fav slips into a heavily backed position of around 2.5 < then i will also be laying its arse off , cant see it but ya never know..all the mugs will watch the morning line and lump on...

This may be subject to a slight change in the morning , if it does i will update...

RESULT :

Thursday, 10 July 2014

The FALMOUTH STAKES ( Group 1 )



Morning All ,
                   Today we start the 3 day July meeting at Newmarket which holds several top quality races starting with several high profile races on the Thursday with the highlight undoubtedly being the Prince of Wales stakes which looks a good opportunity for GATEWOOD to add to his seasons tally as i feel the hot fav Arab Spring is well worth taking on and because of its low price is a LOTD ( 2.24 ) , Arab Sping has rattled up a good sequence of wins and is certainly a horse on the up however i feel those were lower class races ( through opposition )  and he has yet to meet real quality and i think Gatewood , Pethers Moon Dandino and Hillstar will all be his toughest race to date and at between Evens  - 6/4 this has to be taken on...win or lose its a cracking bet.
Alternatively Gatewood Himself is a cracking 18/1 ( 3.8 Fap ) and on the balance of form it must have every chance of placing at the very minimum as its form in Class 1 Listed events is as good  ( imo ) as anything else available ( current ) .

Moving on to tomorrow we have our Main punting event the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes and this looks set to be a cracker with SKY LANTERN having her 2nd run for the season after a lacklustre fto effort although to be fair she looked woolly and out of condition and im going to presume she is now fit and race ready ( without seeing her in the paddock i have to take this on trust ) but even a race ready Sky Lantern will have her work cut out to beat the very impressive INTEGRAL who is best priced 2.63 with the excellent new bookmakers BETBRIGHT 
Looking through the field we can see Integral is the class based on current form and with the promise of more improvement this Stoute runner could prove to be a wee bit special and after cruising thru the field lto it still ran green at the death and started to hang and without that it would have won a lot lot easier and this will take a world of beating today.

Sky Lantern herself is certainly good enough to take this and to be honest it would be just deserts as she should imo have been awarded this race last year having looked the winner before being carried across the track by Elusive Kate and then being struck on the head by that riders whip which must have had an effect however it ran too bad to be true albeit being unfit lto and was easily brushed aside 6L and she really will have to be at the top of her game in order to turn that form around...but she has the back form to make this interesting although the price is very unappealing.

Certify looked a future star when winning at Meydan on the back of a great run and being unbeaten but its later run at Meydan was a bit flat then it failed to shine in any way behind Intergral lto and is another that will really have to prove its back to her best but the 23/1 makes it worth a punt for those looking to get on something at a price that could surprise.

Rizeena is a horse with a great deal of ability and take out the 1000 Guineas run and her form profile is very exciting indeed and her lto win in the Coronation stakes is very strong form and this has to be the proverbial  " EW bet to nothing " @ around 5/1 the trainer is an old school shrewdie and he certainly knows how to get the best out of his charges and she  ( Rizeena ) certainly has every chance on current form and with her being in the field adds nothing but masses of interest....but i must confess im still not satisfied that she is truly a top class filly..very good ..yes...but not exceptional.

The remaining three hold no interest and offer nothing at all for me as i feel in my heart of hearts this is a 2 horse race with either Certify or Rizeena racing for places...PRO PUNT : WIN Bet on INTEGRAL.

                                           

BETBRIGHT......the FUTURE of Better Betting...get onboard now and take advantage of the great free bet offers.

Result : Well a good day on Thurs as my LOTD ( Arab Spring ) Gets beat easy ( Unplaced )  and then a BoooM as INTEGRAL WINS easy @ 3.0 ;-)))

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (5)IntegralSir Michael Stoute49-7R L Moore15/8f
Took keen hold early, tracked leaders in 3rd, went 2nd over 6f out until 5f out, chased leaders, went 2nd again approaching final 3f, led 2f out, pushed clear over 1f out, ridden and stayed on strongly final furlong opened 7/4 touched 2/1 £2000-£1000(x2) £7500-£4000 £1500-£800 £938-£500
2nd (6)2Rizeena (IRE)C E Brittain38-12O Peslier4/1
Soon tracking leaders on outside, went 2nd 5f out, led narrowly halfway, edged left and headed 2f out, chased winner, well held over 1f out, stayed on same pace final furlong, no chance with winner opened 5/1 £2500-£500
3rd (3)¾Peace Burg (FR)A P O'Brien49-7 tJ P O'Brien25/1
Tracked leader until over 6f out, chased leaders, pushed along and outpaced over 2f out, rallied under pressure over 1f out, stayed on into 3rd inside final furlong, kept on but no chance with winner opened 22/1

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