Monday, 4 May 2015

Winners n Losers from the weekend..

Morning Everyone and happy Star Wars day ;-),
                                                                             Well that was a busy weekend with the opening couple of Classics that really didn't inspire much and before i post all the results from weekend selections lets take a quick review on the classics.

2000 Guineas was Won by the 4/1F Gleaneagles who ran on the rail side just off the pace and in the pack that imo always has the advantage and it looked like a sprint in truth as they all seemed to just race with the choke out and at the 3f pole they all seemed to be going hell for leather then between 3 and 2f Gleneagles positioned himself to the out of the leading trio and quickened up sufficiently to give himself a 2L lead and with nothing else really capable of following his lead he stayed on very well and with strength to see his rivals off.
Now i am wont denigrate the winner but the time as a core concept was poor and yes i know it was only half a second slower than Frankels but slower than most and Frankel Won as he liked and wasnt pressed in any way and from the last 12 Years only Henrythenavigator and Camelot have run slower times and the fractions for this don't interest me as it was a oddly run race ( is often ) this all said The winner won on merit although i will give a mention to Ivawood who i thought was unlucky not in running but because of his draw and i feel that had this been sat just off or level with Gleneagles then this result may have been different. This wasn't imo a strong renewal and having the likes of Bossy Guest run so close kinda backs that up although a rag can often throw a big run in these blue riband events and i still feel that had the ground been softer and Elm Park had run then it would have won from the front and been untouchable.

In truth im not sure what to really make from this race won in a very average to poor time on perfect racing ground with a perfect draw and a perfect seam into the race i really though he should have shown more domination but that wasn't his way maybe what you can take from it is that he stays very well and the way he was still motoring at the end would suggest to me that he would get the 1m4f trip for the Derby no problem as i feel the slower earlier sections in that race will also play into his hands and i would expect the same tactics..ridden just off the haunches of the leading pack and the 2f from make the field splitting move and at this current stage of the season i see little around that has impressed me enough to suggest he could have an easy season...hopefully over the next few weeks a few clues will present themselves however it is interesting that Gleneagles is best priced 10/1 for the Derby and has just as i type drifted from 18/1 to 20/1 with Betfair...yes 20/1 whilst the still to run Elm Park is just 8/1 across all the boards....and i think this tells its own story and Gleaneagles will have to perform again and at a much better level and with far more superiority before i get involved with the disappointingly rated 116 winner.

Over we go to the 1000 Guineas the equivalent race but for the Fillies this time and this was won by the Wachman Trained and Ryan Moore ridden LEGATISSIMO and wow wow wow did this horse impress me , not only was its time fully 3 seconds quicker than its stronger male rival in the 2000 it was won in such a manner that had me drooling!!, yes we have just seen this years Oaks Winner make no mistake and the 9/2 with William Hill should be smashed off the boards because that is a gift as i already have it as low as 6/4 !!!!!....so for me the Uber value has already presented itself.
The 2nd this day and the Fav Lucida make no mistake is very smart indeed and should stick to competing in all the top 1m races as she will win plenty but once stepped upto 1m2f or 1m4f then the Wachman trained Legatissimo will destroy everything this year she looks to me like the Female Frankel...just incredible and take Lucida out of this race and the field was visibly dismantled ( Lucida did start badly and briefly lost her irons but that would not have had any effect on the race ) .
Legatissimo started well and Ryan had her tucked up towards the rear minding her own business and just lollygagging whilst the field jostled and raced for position and pressure she simply just switched off and cantered through the race and when the hit the opening at the 3f pole Lucida had them all at it striding out beautifully thru the middle carving open a passage of desstruction leaving all of her rivals bewildered expect the marauding Legatissimo who now just entering the 2f was only just starting to get wound up and as they left the field behind and come into the 1f pole the afterburners were lit and she just powered past the fast running Lucida ...it was majestic and this trip i would say would have to be her absolute minimum and i wouldnt preferably want to see her run over it again as she is a dyed in the wool stayer.

Over to the results in general from the weekend which certainly for the EW backers proved to be quite healthy.

1. PERSONA GRATA - NON RUNNER

    EDUCATE - 3RD @ 11/2
    BALTY BOYS - 1ST @ 8/1

2. PEARL SECRET - NON RUNNER

3. PETHERS MOON - UNPLACED ( PPL Win in this )

4. ELM PARK - NON RUNNER

And now Sunday's Selections...

5. WATERSMEET - 4TH @ 14/1 ( Betfair would have paid due to 4 non runners )
    AGENT MURPHY - NON RUNNER
    QUEST FOR MORE - 2ND @ 12/1

6. RIZEENA - UNPLACED
    FINTRY - UNPLACED

7. HUNTSMAN CLOSE - 2ND @ 12/1
    HILLYBILLY BOY - UNPLACED
    SHORE STEP - NON RUNNER

8. TERROR - UNPLACED
    FADHAYIL - UNPLACED

9. ACADEMY HOUSE - 3RD @ 14/1
 
10. ZANNDA - NAP - 2ND @ 15/8

11. BROTHERLEY COMPANY - EW NAP - 4TH @ 12/1

So there we have it now lets apply a stake of £100 EW on EVERY Runner and see how we would have done!!....

From 19 EW Single we would have made a PROFIT of £147.50
and just for the sake of curiosity if you had done the same spread in EW doubles ( granted this would be odd as you have multiple selections from the same race on many an occasion ) this would have given a PROFIT of £245.75 , EW TREBLES would have given a PROFIT of £9930.80 and EW 4 Folds would have given an amazing £85071.83 ( although rather laughably the stake outlay would have been £775,000 lol..but still a nice return lol....

Friday, 1 May 2015

1000 GUINEAS ~ Sneak Peak ~

Well Good Afternoon Douche Bags , 
                                                            Thanks for the few of you to bother interacting with me thru the day....it does make a difference to my day it keeps me occupied and chipper ;-)...even when discussing the tedium of Median Times with Eric lol....

Well i would usually start by dissecting yesterdays card however that doesn't run until tmrw so we will just cut straight to the thrust and move on with the Sunday card at Newmarket where the highlight will be the 1000 Guineas..the Fillies are out today ;0.



Well we start the day off with an impossible looking Handicap over 1m4f with 17 runners and this is a punters Nightmare.
The choices i make here will be speculative at best as it an almost impossible task and i feel a lot of PP punters will have been burned at the first hurdle.
QUEST FOR MORE is the first of my three against the field as this likable sort run some very solid races last term and looks the type to hold and carry his form forward as has been previously shown , WATERSMEET is the next and tis free ggoing front running and typical of the sort MJ trains could be a few pounds better than his current mark and could be quite well in here and if given an easy enough time up front could lead them a merry dance.
Finally we will have AGENT MURPHY who is a lightly raced sort from a stable i like and comes into this with any amount of improvement left and could be anything really so there you have my three very speculative selections against the field...who knows?./..certainly not me.

Next up is the DAHLIA STAKES for fillies and its over 1m1f which is i find an interesting trip as it can often find a few out.I think RIZEENA is the Class in this event and has shown she carries her form very well , stays the trip and will enjoy the ground conditions so imo will run a big race and i will be very surprised if she doesnt make the frame and a reproduction of her Win in the Coronation stakes puts her in with a big chance of winning.
Im not quite what Bragging has done to deserve to 2nd highest rated in this race as i have it 10lbs below its mark and for me still has a lot of improving to do just to make the others work.
FINTRY however could be very useful and doesnt have to improve much to be up there and with already having some solid form locked away i think this will be bang there and for me is another placer with strong win claims and i feel the remainder are much of a muchness so the Win Dutch on these two looks a very strong bet with even a RFC a strong looking exotic.

The third race of the day is another punting nightmare...a 23 runner sprint hcap...this is where the mighty ERIC machine comes in but for me i think i will use a certain someones new lucky pin.
Realistically tho i have to take three on against the field and for me they are HUNTSMAN CLOSE who i like because .............well it has four legs...,SHORE STEP and HILLYBILLY BOY again the other two are based on not much more than a gut instinct and thats really all i can say ( there is some science involved but im not getting into the science of gut technology ).

The 4th race today is the days big event the 1000 GUINEAS the Fillies Classic and with 13 runners on perfect racing ground this should be a decent race.
Not a great race for favourites and a shock or at least a surprise is not uncommon. Lucida is the market leader in this at around 4/1 but doesnt have the most consistent of profiles having Won the Rockfel and then did little in the Fillies Mile this is for me not a horse to trust and although its not currently worth Laying is best left alone as a betting proposition.
Local Time will have plenty of supporters on the back of a glittering set of runs in Meydan which also included a win in their UAE 1000 Guineas and the 20/1 to me looks too big and has to be worth a few quids ew of anyones money.
Osaila has a nice chance based on her fto win in the Nell Gwynn but statistically the race is of little importance regarding this so i will look to have another ew with another big priced runner and this is TERROR a horse i had been given rave reviews about and had backed it for the Nell Gywnn however it didnt run due to the ground so fingers crossed the reports were good and i can get some place money ;P and finally i will have my idea of the actual winner in FADHAYYIL who at around 10/1 looks a stonking good EW bet and will not have to find much improvement to be at the minimum the equal of the best of these , when it got beat by Lucida it ran very green and with some maturing and strengthening this could easily turn the tables although the same comments can be easily applied to a few.

In the Maiden i have had some goods spoke of ACADEMY HOUSE  , Then we move onto THE PRETTY POLLY STAKES a race that has produced arguably a better winner than the Guineas in many a year and tis years race looks a doozy.
ZANNDA this years jolly looks this bizzo in a race which appears light on real class with only Winters Moon and Teosroyal only the others to have reached a level worthy of winning a race like this and Zannda looks like it could be a good bit better than this lot having shown she stays no problem she can battle will like the ground and has shown so far no quirkiness this could be the real deal...but i guess only time will tell however im making this my NAP for the day.

In the finalei will again be on BROTHERLEY COMPANY as i know Fahey is quite sweet on this and although he is in another Handicap he is thought to be Listed or group 2 class at the minimum and possibly hopes of more and this could go off at a very workable price and becomes my EW NAP.

Have a great weekend folks as te weather is now in the 90's im gonna be spending mine on the beach...Adios ;)

Thursday, 30 April 2015

2000 Guineas ~ Sneak Peek ~

Afternoon you mute fucknuts...
                                                  Yes mute because so many of you can either not type , talk or both as there is a distinct lack of bastard communication on here....i do all the work to try n bring you miserable shits some winners and no one seems to be able to drop in with a single " Hello "....JEEZ..not asking much is it ??.

Anyway i do this for myself as much as you as i find it helps me reflect on my decisions and allows me the extra focus needed when looking thru the cards so i guess i will just have to suck it up lol..

We have a fantastic weekend of racing coming up and i will obviously focusing on NEWMARKET as it is the GUINEAS weekend and it kicks off on Saturday with the 2000 Guineas a the highlight with the 1000 on Sunday but todays notes will take you thru an early look for the 2000 and the supporting card now obviously there maybe the odd non runner and with no tissues available im using my own book for price comparisons so it may end up with the odd error or two but i will to break it down best i can.

The day starts with the 1m1f Makfi Suffolk Stakes and this is a race in which to leave the fav well alone..whatever it is should be avoided like the plague and i would just try and hit one or two or possibly three at double figure odds and have a spec bash and considering the last three winners were 10/1 , 10/1 & 12/1 a decent low to middle band winner is highly likely.
Top Tug and Angelic Upstart are the two market leaders so are dismissed straight away, PERSONA GRATA tho does tick all the boxes , low weight , middle order odds , improving and lightly raced sort with ample experience over the trip with the only negative being its so far raced solely at Wolverhamptn on the AW however being by Sir Percy i dont see this being an issue and i would expect this to race competitively today at decent enough odds ( want at least 10/1 ) the 2nd on my short list is BALTY BOYS which is a horse ive tried to win with on many an occasion and although its not a lemming when ever i have followed this i have lost and when i turned away it has won but today is one of those days that i feel i have to be involved and with Hughes riding this will get perfect assistance from this saddle for what is a quirky sort.
Finally we have EDUCATE a horse that has yet to sparkle this term but may be fit enough now to do himself justice and should also go off at a working mans price and itmust be said that it was either this or Bronze Angel for the third spot but i feel even tho weakening at the end the 5L beating by French Navy is still better current form and it needs only to be fitter and stay and that form puts him right in the mix.

The 2nd race on this card is the 5f PALACE HOUSE STAKES for 3+ year olds and with 10 currently entered this looks to be both a competitive heat and possibly a good punting round as the book looks well balanced.
We have a very wide mix of talent and ability on show so lets look at the two young uns...Wind Fire & Online Alexander both of whom have to be respected as both have historic form at a very high level and both are capable of showing further improvement and getting involved but as much as i think they can have a say in the finish i think they still have a bit to prove against their elders.
Talking of Elders we have a couple that can run big races as they have shown throughout their respective careers and on any given day they can really turn it on the first of which is Kingsgate Native a horse that could be called " the class in the field " however i do feel its best days are behind him with him now being seriously inconsistent and will probably only win at a much lower level and is easily overlooked for today and then we have Tangerine Trees ( Winner in 2011 )  who rolled back the years to score lto but in a very average time on much softer going and is another that could get involved but is one i feel that is very vulnerable to some of the newly established brigade.
From the Established brigade i think we can give PEARL SECRET one last chance to show us he can be the real deal instead of the infuriating arsewipe he has been for his last 10 runs...has all the ability in the world..seriously..this could and should have been Europes Champion Sprinter long ago but after some promising efforts its form become very hit n miss and im hoping this year we can see the real Pearl Secret.

The next race will be much easier to dissect as we only have four confirmed runners in this which is the JOCKEY CLUB STAKES over 1m4f for 4yr plus so its some decent prize money for some of the older generation its just a shame its a small field.
Telescope has to be one of the most frustrating horses in training a horse that has always promised more than its delivered,has looked a world beater at times and a complete dog at times and even in a very suspect field their is no way i would back this at odds on and i have this in at 1/2f so its a big swerve for me yes it may well rout these by 10L but could just as easy throw a moody and get out battled by PETHERS MOON a horse that isnt really a Group 1 performer but is still capable on its day and its seasonal debut was promising with a gutsy 2nd to Arab Spring a horse itself who is climbing the ranks and previously had Won the Cumberland Lodge stakes on Soft ground but beating Parish Hall and Enke ( St Leger winner ) and the Coutts Glorious Stakes again accounting for Enke but does have 7L to find with Telescope on last years Hardwicke but at the odds i think a chance can be taken and i will also be looking to PPL this race.

The fourth race of the day is the days big one The 2000 GUINEAS a race over 1m for 3 yr olds only and is actually a bad race for Favs although bar last year with the " freak " 40/1 winner we had three very special talents in Frankel , Dawn Approach and Camelot but prior to them it was all over the place.
Gleneagles from the powerful AoB yard has been all the rage for this but then a lot of the yards runners are over hyped and overbet and although it ran some excellent races as a 2 yr old all bar its final race in which it got discoed in France were in Ireland and as far as im concerned Irish form is wank and not worth the paper its printed on so until it races in a decent event in the UK it will get no credit from me.
Ivawood was very disappointing fto and is another to leave for now along with all the Hannon runners as i just dont like him for this today.ELM PARK however does have some very creditable juvenile form and has won on a variety of ground types has shown battling qualities and a huge amount of ability and i feel this will be the one to beat and even more so if it breaks well and can lead like it did when winning the Racing Post Trophy or the Stonehenge Stakes with a Victory in taking down the Juddmonte sandwiched in between and i think if you can get double figures on this you should snap there hand off.

And thats it for today....off to get some beers in ;)


Wednesday, 29 April 2015

Sagaro Stakes and Nibbles

Morning you degenerates ,
                                           Well Punchestown produced....like it does in Ireland a sense of disbelief and utter bullshit lol now i know Horses are not machines but to run 40lb below your last run is something else lol..... and the joke results continued although thankfully the Douvan show rolled into town and flattened its rivals wit a pulverising display of class.
Hidden Cyclone managed a 3rd but was comfortably beaten so a so so day for the blog but with hope that today brings more and i will need to stick a few extra hours in as the mercury is nudging its way upto 90° and i can feel a beach day or two coming on ;-).

Today we have a raft of racing or for the more educated a " plethora " and for the fuckwits we have lots n lots.Ascot for me today is the main card but we have some ( more dodgy ) from Punchestown and some more AW fare...so plenty to get ones teeth firmly clasped onto.

So today i am going to take a look thru the ASCOT card and also will add a mention or two from over in Ireland ( reluctantly ).

The first race is a Conditions race for 2 yr olds with 3 first time out winners an unraced Hannon colt and two with something to prove.
The one i like as a betting proposition is HANDYTALK @ 18.5 ( currently ) this won fto in a good time with good sectionals and beat a decent type in Rajs to Riches and has at the minimum an equal chance to that of Gifted Master who is the 2.30 Fav so for me this is a no brainer as a bet and this can be Dutched with BURATINO ( around 4.5 ) as this also won and ran well fto and provides good cover as i think the Hannon Runner will have to be group class to win here fto in what looks like a baptism of fire.

Next up its a Fillies Conditions race for 3 yr olds only and this is over 1m and the field is made up entirely of seasonal debutantes so there is going to be much guessing required.
I can only offer a speculative vote in this and my selection would be MONTELACINO who arrives here with Juvenile form as smart as anything else on offer and with assumed natural development could be good enough to take this down but in truth any of this could win...so really its just one to watch unless your there at he track n fancy a nibble but even then i would advise just dutching the two or three biggest priced runners.

The SAGARO Stakes and im gutted to see the ground has not sufficiently softened to allow my all time fav stayer Tac De Boistron ( and last years winner ) to take his place ( High Jinx also withdrawn ) however we do have a more or less ready made replacement in the shape of MIZZOU who is well up to running over this 2m trip and this son of Galileo could easily be upto Gold Cup class and at 4.5 im making this my EW NAP of the day....it has to be done.

The fourth race of the day is the Pavillion Stakes over 6f for 3 yr olds and is due to be contested b y 12 runners in a very open race this is very tricky for punters.
LIMATO could be the next " big thing " in the sprinting sphere and should be followed even at 2.54 im interested although not any real value as i made him 6/4 myself however he was untested last season winning all 4 races including listed events and nothing getting close.

Im running out of time today so i will just say that in the Next race we have MONDALISTE who is my NAP of the day as this looked a sure fire nto winner after getting getting heavily hampered.

Over in Ireland DJAKADAM should be winning the Gold Cup as his form is imo way above anything else on offer and a repeat of his lto run wins this easily....but as with Don Poli nothing is impossible in the emerald isle.

Good Luck n see you tmrw....maybe ;)

Monday, 27 April 2015

Punchestown

Afternoon Earth Dwellers ,
                                             Well im still alive and breathing and operating at a better level now as my mind clears and the decisions i need to make start to unravel thru the slow process of thinking while drinking talking while drinking and just drinking...

Tmrw sees the start of the Punchestown Festival which is usually good for a punt or two and i will post my selections up although i dont think there will be many original thoughts....

The 1620....DOUVAN.....cant see it losing so not gonna consider anything else as this is one in our new group of mega stars....wonderful horse and jam packed wwith class.

The 1730 is the Boyle Sports CHAMPION CHASE over 2m and this looks a very strong renewal with HIDDEN CYCLONE the best EW bet for me as it has form on its own that entitles it to go close plus it holds a couple of these thru lateral form and has shown to be rather consistent with its lto run a trip too far and will be much more at home today.

In the Bumper i am rather keen on BON ENFANT from a yard still doing great on the back of a very strong season and with a very decent NHF rider doing the steering this should go off at a each way price and is worth throwing a few quid at.

In the CHAMPION CHASE or the Gigginstown / Meade chase ( own 4 of the 5 runners ) it is impossible to get away from hat fav DON POLI that has everything in its favour and should be too good for these on all known form with Apache Stronghold the only one thought capable of getting close.

And that kinda wraps up Day 1...i will hopefully be back tmrw for some more words of wisdom and some perilous insight.....good luck folks.

Thursday, 23 April 2015

Notes From Spain...

Morning Mortals , 
                            Well as you may know im in Spain chilling and trying t get my head back in the game after the pounding its taken from the notable woman in my life and trust me having more than one is never a good idea but then my life was never a plan for ease of use if i was a carpenter all my tools would be made of Banana.
So here i am in Sunny Spain trying to unwind enough to move forward and with little success it seems as i am having at least one mini meltdown per day....oh the joys....but i have come out to play as the weekend nears and for me it looks a decent few days of racing with the Friday card at Sandown looking quite smart indeed with the Bet365 Mile the highlight on a strong day.

So i will have a mini card and brief for Sandown with thoughts n selections and maybe a NAP...

We start the day of with the ESHER CUP over 1m4f for 3 yr olds only and with just the 9 runners this could be a very good race for punting.
Hills n Fahey are the Hot Trainers in this so both must be respected and both are worth a look and i couldnt talk you out of backing either.
Its interesting that the last three winners of this race had been racing well on the AW and arrived fit from an AW campaign and i think YEENAN fits this profile perfectly having only been narrowly touched off over this 1m trip at Chelmsford on its seasonal debut this will be cherry ripe now and a big run is expected and if 4/1 or better is available then i think tis is an outstanding EW bet.

Next up its the GORDON RICHARDS Stakes a race which is generally won by something a bit smart and this small field contains some decent form already and in a wide open race im sure all of these will be winning eventually this season.
For today tho i think CANNOCK CHASE ( 3rd ) can provide us with another winner unbeaten last etrm over this trip and with the least to prove this one will take a world of beating if fit which is the only question mark as the Stoute term are often late bloomers but the horses are always there and are always running because they can win so one must presume its ready.
Stoute has Won this race 3 times of late in 2008/2009/2010 with the likes of Glass Harmonium and Ask so he does send a good un here with his Telescope running 2nd last year.
Tullius doesnt really stay , Ayad is outclassed n out of sorts , Western Hymn needs soft ground to be at his best and Postponed needs at least 1m4f so all roads again lead to Cannock Chase.

Now its the days big un THE BET 365 MILE and this has the makings of a cracker.None of this field can be safely ruled out  but all have something to prove to themselves now as most had their reputations tarnished last year after promising so much more.Shifting Power had run some decent races in defeat but looks the sort to remain forever in anothers shadow and even tho Hannon likes this race having had several high profile winners i cant see this being good enough.
For me at around 15/2 or better HERE COMES WHEN ( 2nd ) makes most appeal and has less to prove and seems a more consistent type plus holds a couple on both literal and lateral form and looks a good sporting EW bet.

In the Derby Trial we have a poor field of four and CAPE CLEAR ISLAND ( 2nd ) at around 3.8 looks a great bet having won well fto and is fit and relevant and in truth this race has as much relevance on the Derby itself as me with only two actually entered.

Others...WAADY ( 1st @ 4/1 ) has to be considered in EW accas as this looks a reliable enought type to get involved , BRANDY BEND ( 1st @ 8/1 ) looks a likely sort and could put his experience to good use to get in the money in what looks a hot maiden and finally PUTTING GREEN is another worthy of EW acca inclusions as this will run a solid reliable race.

Wednesday, 15 April 2015

Newmarket #CravenStakes

Well Weds went well on the bets struck with a decent level of profitability all round and im hoping for more on the Thursday with another very tidy looking card ahead.
The Thursday brief will be just that as im feeling drained ...woman...Jeez what a head case bunch they are.

Race 1 - Miss Moneypenny / Nidnod - 3rd @ 6.89 / unplaced

Race 2 - Markstein / Winter House - unplaced / 1st @ 7.66

Race 3 - Azmaam / Secret Brief - unplaced / unplaced ( Azmaam needs to be bookmarked as a future winner as this met all sorts of trouble and couldnt get a gap in the final 1f and was snatched up and eased with 50 yards to run )

Race 4 - Music Master / Jack Dexter - 3rd @ 2.88 / unplaced

Race 5 - Moheet / Aces - unplaced / unplaced ( how often have said when Hannon has multiple entries back em all ??..grrr)

Race 6 - French Navy ( NAP )/ Arod - 1st @ 4.33 / 2nd @ 4.70 ( RFC - £12.47 )

Race 7 - Amazing Speed / Black Cherry - unplaced / unplaced

Race 8 - Shakopee / Mohatem - 2nd @ 9.70 / unplaced

 Enjoy and Peace Out ;-)...

Translate

Copy Halt