Friday, 19 December 2014

Its Friday but here is Saturday...

Evening All ,
                 Well what a day today was full of highs and well more highs with only a little blip in Josses Hill ( whom i blame BG for as his tactical riding skills were not obvious in this ) , but overall through the day we did very well with a winning NAP and many other winning trades and bets across all cards.
The NAP was a particular highlight as it won with any amount in hand and that gives my Ante post ticket bet on Peace n Co and nice boost as this has been getting stuffed by that at home..;-0)

Can we scoop the Jackpot on Saturday ??...will my three tips for Haydock in ??...will i ever get a winner in the HCE Tipping comp ??....For those of you not yet in this cracking monthly FREE and pay Comp...get the fuck involved ya miserable bastards!! ;-)

If anyone from Premiumukracingtips would like to join our members Facebook banter n tips page for more regular updates and selections then you will have to add me or Jason Coote as a friend on Facebook and then send a request to join...only a couple of very basic rules to adhere to and the door to profitsville will be opened ;-).

Lets take a peek at ASCOT then ....

RACE 1 :
The starts encouragingly as we have a nice 3m Hcap Hurdle with 12 runners and its a tight one as most come into this with a bit of form and some sort of chance and in truth for the Potters its a tough start and a few tickets will be rustling in the wind after this....
With the right weight for ratings in play they should in theory all be coming over the last in a heap..but over 3m in Softish ground this could see a few come home rather leg weary and i will envisage a mishap or two en route to the line , Flintham looks a nice spare for Nico a jockey i like very much and this could be good for a few lbs extra however the current price of 8.20 is a bit on the thin side for me for a horse with a bit to prove and in a race like this i think you will be better off going in with proven over to prove...proven form over potential in a race like this will almost always bring you the winner.
Barton Heather will enjoy the trip but not the ground if it gets much softer so this will have to be monitored but even with ground on the better side of soft i cant see me getting involved at around 9/1. Rascal absolutely hosed up lto and the Skeltons have their string in fine fettle and this must surely run a big race but again the 5.2 is tight considering its been raised 10lbs for that so will have to produce another career best to get in the mix and that is a seriously tough ask Spookydooky is from JJ O'Neil and is bypassed on the basis his horses are running worse than shit right now , Wizards Bridge is of great interest hailing from the hot Tizzard yard and is a horse full of promise but is another that not only fails the proven test but is too short for me to get involved so is overlooked as a punt , The TOURARD MAN however is on the shortlist as its a proven distance & ground performer that also has bags of potential and has been imo let in lightly as i have this rated at 122 with a further area of improvement hike likely to see this get into the low 30's at the minimum and i feel this could end up being a great deal better than most if not all of these ..bordering on Listed or even graded class and i think the 4.6 is a good price even given the context of this race as i had it down at 3.4 - 3.6 so as far as im concerned im getting a whole point more than i expected and to me thats value..i like this as a bet.

WIN - TOURARD MAN ( EW NAP ) -
EW - RASCAL -
LONG - FLINTHAM -

Notes / Result : 
                                       ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 2 :
Next up is a small but classy chase with a few looking to mend broken reputations in this 5 runner Chase.
For me this is a 2 horse race Between Irish Saint and PUFFIN BILLY as the remaining three although useful look to have a bit to find and Puffin Billy is imo a different class of animal to these even Irish Saint has a bit to prove and has a bit of an attitude problem and if PB gets round in one piece then i feel it wins and wins well and isnt far off being a NAP selection and yet its 3.5 2nd Fav behind Irish Saint who got beaten by habitual non trier Vibrato Valtat last run and goes up in trip..quite significantly and with so many negs against it i am struggling to see how this exactly is an Even Money shot.....Bookies being bandits imo...

WIN - PUFFIN BILLY -
EW - IRISH SAINT -
LONG - N/A -

Notes / Result : 
                                       ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 3 :
7 Runner Hcap chase is next on the agenda and this although a shit race for punting could be quite profitable as its a massive Stat LAY race with or without trade.
FTW i would say either of this races previous winners ULK DU LIN or LANCETTO as both have very strong claims and around 5/1 the dutch this is an attractive " punt ".

WIN - ULK DU LIN -
EW - LANCETTO -
LONG - BALLYGARVEY -

Notes / Result : 
                                       ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 4 :
JLT time todays big race well certainly in stature as we yet again encounter another big race ( almost £80k up for grabs ) with a paltry turn out and paying down to 8th with 5 runners im sure there are one or two owners thinking " why cant i get small share of that ? "....but i digress lets talk race and this race only has one real talking point ZARKANDER a horse everyone is saying is a reformed character and will stay at pace etc etc...well i for one am not at all convinced if anything not only do i not feel its a thorough stayer buts i also am not sure its an out n out G1 horse , yes its decent and is certainly upto C1 but there are big differences in what is required and when up against the best has pretty much always found wanting but this isnt the strongest renewal and he may win without being tested such is the paucity in strength against it with only Medinas looking a capable threat. Medinas himself turned around a nice piece of form lto when routing the 158 rated Cole Harden having been easily accounted for in its previous race so we know this has game but just how much more is the big question.
Aubsson is a nice sort that is on the upgrade but i dont think it is really of the required class to beat one or two here but is still a very decent sort and if the favs dont turn up is likely to make most as it will look to go from the front and get them strung out.
REV DI SIVOLA has won this race for the last two years and wasnt that well fancied either time and had a nice enough warm up in France behind Zarkander and will have been laid out for this so must be an obvious threat and danger but the truth is that Zarkander will win imo with a trouble free passage and will last home as he showed in France in weak conditions but isnt one to follow in the bigger events against more established stars.

WIN - ZARKANDER -
EW - REV DI SIVOLA -
LONG - MEDINAS -

Notes / Result : 
                                       ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 5:
£100K on offer for this Listed Hcap Chase which has at least attracted some decent runners with all 9 runners looking tight in the weights and most come into it having a good sporting chance.
This is another huge Stat LAY race and that will be my angle of attack but for the Potters and Punters we shall look at potential winners n placers.
Last years Winner HOUBLON DES OBEAUX comes into this just 7lb higher and on the back of an excellent run in the Hennessy and for me is the likeliest winner although he will have to fight hard and be on the top of his game if these components click then for me hes the one and the price at 5.6 just about makes it a bet certainly nothing less than 5.50....
The Young Master has gone up around 80lb lol since it started notching up a rake of wins and is another " Hunt Ball " and he will also feel the ceiling of his ability close in and at 3.90 this is a cast iron , nailed on , stone walled LOTD...if it wins then i will just hold my hands up and say fair enough but i am more than happy to take it on at those odds.Its my opinion that the biggest dangers will arrive from Hey Big Spender who is doing well in his advanced years and the Nicholls pair...the rest look to be fighting for scraps imo...

WIN - HOUBLON DES OBEAUX -
EW - HEY BIG SPENDER -
LONG - SOUND INVESTMENT -

Notes / Result : 
                                       ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 6:
Its the days Finale and from a punting perspective is possibly the days toughest race its an absolute corker , 19 runners in a Hcap Hurdle and its choc packed full of really likable sorts and a few with some class.
We can forget Garde Le Victoire as i have that as my HCE tip and that is the truest Kiss of Death as you will find..seriously the fucker may as well stay at home in its nice warm box and chow down some hay....
So what can win it ??..Well i like Bayan , Shelford , Balgarry , Clondaw Warrior and Pine Creek and a small word for big outsider Jebril as The Commissioner doesnt tilt at windmills readily and he will have had this cherry ripe from a yard i really admire and respect and young Cannon is a fine pilot going places and at 100/1 this could give you a bit of fun with a low outlay....From the 5 i am Keen on Bayan is the most consistent and will be thereabouts stirring up trouble and is good for a FAP whilst SHELFORD comes into this having attracted a lot of support for a tilt at Cheltenham on the back of some fine victories and there will be  some anxious holders of ante post vouchers holding their breath but this couold and should be good for another 20 odd lb rise in the weights such has been the manner of his wins in particular making all to beat a rock solid field lto into submission..not flash but resilient , strong and reliable this horse is going places and today could see it rise right to the top.Pine Creek is not without ability and could easily have a say if in the right mood whilst Clondaw Warrior is trained by Mullins so has to be respected but his UK record is not sparkling so until Cheltenham the fear factor is off and BALGARRY at big double figure odds probably represents the best value bet as Pipe has no peers when it comes to readying a horse from a lay off and this ex French sort has shown enough in his runs to date to suggest he can play a part although this is the proverbial pit of for for a seasonal debut.


WIN - SHELFORD -
EW - BAYAN -
LONG - PINE CREEK -

Notes / Result : 
                                       ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Have a great day all...i may not be around tmrw..so GL >>>

Thursday, 18 December 2014

Thursday Aftermath..

Well Folks that was a ride ,
                                         Thought as i had the whole day free to trade n bet (? did quite a bit of betting today as i am feeling " in the zone ) and i thought i would post  ( as i did ) most of what i was doing today for your digestion and thru the written down 16 Races we hit 5 Winners at 1.81 , 2.02 ( NB Bet ) , 4.74 , 5.03 and 10.40 giving a return of around 22 Points so theres a profit plus i was 100% on my Lays today and a couple of fap trades and PPL bets also paid off , there was a few losses along the road but stayed ahead the whole day thankfully...although i could of had a fair bit more had i followed Winters Patriotic NAP ( 1st @ 10.50 )  and the ERIC NAP ( 2nd @ 22.60 ) and i really ought to have slung those in for a little EW double..tut tut...that is however by the by...so all in all this week we have had some rather decent results , good reviews and some solid profit making..rather marv as its the mid week stuff as well but can we repeat the trick for the weekend ?..well we have a nice little 2 day Ascot meeting to focus on and that is where i shall be focusing my energies...with the Long Walk ( disappointing turn out expected ) the big race on Saturday.


So lets start this update by taking a peruse at the Friday ASCOT card...

RACE 1 : 

We start off the day with a steady 2m6f Maiden Hurdle and as we know by now these n the Juveniles are my bread n butter so im hoping to get a clean start on this as it always helps bolster the day.
Champagne Present will be a very warm order here with prices to range from 1.48 - 1.85 and you have to take caution with this , main reason being that the yard simply cannot buy a winner just now ( heres the list of his recent runners with the only winner being the one at the bottom

Form
  • All runs
  • Wins only
  • Wins & Places
  • After 60 day break

DatePosRideRace detailsJockeySP
17/12/142/10Rose RevivedNby12f Sft C6A P McCoy7/1
17/12/146/10Monbeg Gold (IRE)Nby19f Sft C4A P McCoy12/1
17/12/146/10Dursey Sound (IRE)Lud24f Gd/Sft C3W Kennedy33/1
17/12/145/17CommunicatorNby16f Sft C4A P McCoy7/4
17/12/145/10Oscar Fortune (IRE)Nby24f Gd/Sft C3A P McCoy6/1
13/12/146/7Mr Shantu (IRE)Don16f Sft C4Maurice Linehan (3)13/2
13/12/144/10Miami Present (IRE)Ling16f Hvy C6R P Mclernon12/1
12/12/143/6Kelvingrove (IRE)Don19f Sft C3A P McCoy8/1
11/12/14PUPresence Felt (IRE)War29f Sft C4A P McCoy5/2
11/12/147/13Saint LucyWar16f Sft C4R P Mclernon33/1
09/12/142/5Cloudy Copper (IRE)Utt24f Sft C4A P McCoy4/1
06/12/14PUFoundation Man (IRE)Ain21f Gd/Sft C2R P Mclernon20/1
06/12/14URHolywell (IRE)Ain25f Gd/Sft C1R P Mclernon11/4
06/12/14PUBurton Port (IRE)Ain26f Gd/Sft C1R P Mclernon33/1
06/12/14URTouch Back (IRE)Chpw24f Gd/Sft C3W Kennedy28/1
05/12/14PUAmerican Legend (IRE)Exe32f Gd/Sft C3A P McCoy13/2
05/12/148/8Josies Orders (IRE)Sand20f Sft C3D C Costello25/1
04/12/145/6Vaihau (FR)Mras21f Sft C4A P McCoy11/4
04/12/149/10Temple Lord (FR)Leic16f Gd C4R P Mclernon25/1
04/12/146/6Finding Your Feet (IRE)Mras25f Sft C4A P McCoy11/1
04/12/148/13Beg To Differ (IRE)Leic16f Sft C4R P Mclernon66/1
04/12/146/14Capard King (IRE)Mras19f Sft C4A P McCoy10/1
03/12/14PUDreamsoftheatre (IRE)Lud25f Gd/Sft C3A P McCoy16/1
02/12/142/9Mad Jack Mytton (IRE)Sou16f Gd/Sft C5A P McCoy7/1
02/12/143/7Bandit Country (IRE)Sou24f Gd/Sft C4A P McCoy9/4
02/12/142/6Mackerye End (IRE)Sou24f Gd/Sft C4A P McCoy6/1
02/12/145/7O'callaghan Strand (AUS)Sou20f Gd/Sft C4A P McCoy6/1
30/11/146/7Mr Shantu (IRE)Leic16f Sft C4Maurice Linehan (3)16/1
30/11/149/11Mission Complete (IRE)Leic23f Gd/Sft C4R P Mclernon50/1
29/11/143/19Merry King (IRE)Nby26f Sft C1A P McCoy14/1
29/11/143/6More Of That (IRE)Nby24f Sft C1A P McCoy4/7
27/11/142/7Spookydooky (IRE)Nby21f Hvy C4A P McCoy5/1
24/11/146/12Stand Aside (IRE)Lud21f Gd/Sft C4R P Mclernon33/1
22/11/14PUTaquin Du Seuil (FR)Hayd25f Sft C1B J Geraghty9/2
22/11/1413/16UpswingHayd24f Sft C1R P Mclernon16/1
21/11/148/11Josies Orders (IRE)Asc24f Sft C3B J Geraghty7/2
21/11/146/8Rum And Butter (IRE)Asc19f Sft C3W Kennedy14/1
21/11/1411/13Rock Des Champs (IRE)Asc19f Gd/Sft C3W Kennedy66/1
21/11/142/14Milan Bound (IRE)Hayd24f Sft C3R P Mclernon4/1
21/11/144/14Master MaltHayd24f Sft C3Raymond O'Brien (3)20/1
20/11/14FCatching On (IRE)Mras22f Sft C3R P Mclernon11/1
20/11/143/10Capard King (IRE)Mras19f Sft C4R P Mclernon14/1
19/11/147/18Beg To Differ (IRE)War16f Sft C4R P Mclernon25/1
19/11/141/10Mont RoyaleWar19f Sft C4R P Mclernon20/1
)....So you see the big dilemma...Take a short price about a horse that should be a grade or to higher and has at least 20lbs in hand and should also have won fto but for AP making a poor move to late in a much better race than this....i am going to have to say that this for me is the Winner but i simply cannot get involved as JJ is in such poor form and had he been even luke warm then i would have lumped the house on it..but for today i will simply sit back watch n wait.....there will be better bets to come in the day but i do expect this to win and win very well and if it doesnt then the vets need to be sent down to Jackdaws asap.

RESULT : The Fav Champagne Present drifted right out to 2.42 and was UNPLACED...not a shock but JJ seriously should just shut up shop and get the whole set up inspected...shocking state of affairs at Jackdaws....WD Tricky i followed you in on Desilvano..nice battling performance.

RACE 2 :
Next up is a small field Hcap chase which at first glance looks too tight to call ....and after a 2nd glance i can confirm this is as tight as a nuns sleeve.
Key to the West will have all conditions to suit and will shrug off the rise in weights and has the in form Sheehan doing the steering however at around 11/4 its offers little to enthuse about as this is a huge STAT LAY race and  that always tempers enthusiasm in the Fav so much so i will swerve the Fav here which in fact as i double check is Dance Floor King at 5/2 so thats tight in itself...hmmm...OK then its gonna be dutch time as i go with KTTW & COLD MARCH As the Williams inmate has smart French form and was brought down at the first in his opening UK Debut and could be a bit better than these although not particularly well treated the 5/1 plus is decent enough cover...but with the Stat Lay option open and the possibility of it being a PPL race i will hold fire until nearer the time....

RESULT : Well i ended up going with the STAT LAY option and Lay / Trading Garrahalish which got matched after just 2 fences..so a decent result as that only managed 2nd anyway with the winner being Dance Hall King and Cold March had every chance leading upto the last then tiring a bit but battled well enough to suggest that it is well capable of winning a race or two.

RACE 3 :
Now we have the Class 1 Kennel Gate Novice Hurdle which for the last 3 years has been won by such luminaries as Irving , Molotof and Puffin Billy and im expecting another smart sort to take the honours here today but quite frankly i think its a cunting disgrace that once again in a £30k C1 we have a paltry fucking 4 runners...you trainers..hang your collective heads in fucking shame...greedy stupid or lazy...cant decide...
Killtuagh Vic is the Irish raider sent over by Wily Willie Mullins but this has beaten less than fuck all thus far and has been soundly thrashed by Shaneshill and Silver Concorde in Graded events and although the first read of that isnt too bad the fact he has shown little in combat against them makes me believe that Mullins is on a fiching mission as on the face of it this has no chance....the form behind Shaneshill maybe good but is it better than what else is on offer?...L'AMI SERGE is the current Fav albeit not by much and is an IDK radar horse that trotted up fto beating the 137 Rated runner up with a heavily eased down 6L and this was achieved even after flattening the last flight and making a few ricks on the way round....i dont think he will get away with making those errors today but at the same time i dont think he will be as extravagant as BG will have his measure and im expecting this to hack up today NAP >
#On a separate not Peace n Co pisses all over this at home to the point of teasing it and it will interesting to see exactly how well it wins and if Peace n Co has its price checked by the shrewdies,....

RESULT : BoooooooooooM as the NAP WINS at 2.15....Superb ;-)
              
RACE 4 :
Another Graded race worth  another £30k and again a pitiful field size...bottling bastards...!!...This is registered as the Noel Novices Chase and is over 2m3f and thankfully i come into this heavy handed with the days 2nd full on NAP ( yes 2 NAPS in the same day...fucking unheard off but its my fucking blog and i will have as many Naps as i feel appropriate ).......and the days 2nd NAP is JOSSES HILL the same horse that come on leaps n bounds last season with its last two runs being a close 2nd to the mighty Vautour in the Supreme and then winning the IFB at Aintree afterwards beating easily Sgt Reckless ( winner already this season ) and i will not summarise the others as quite frankly i will need picking up off the floor if this loses.                        ..

RESULT : Josses Hill comes 2nd after some elaborate and at times hairy jumping however i do feel had he not jumped into the back of Petit Zig and lost all momentum then this could easily have been a different result...disappointing but im not dispondant...

RACE 5:
Golems Father ???? >>>

Next up is a decent looking Hurdle ( Hcap ) over 2m6f which is for me a bit of a specialist trip and is being contested with a strong looking field.
H A A Bannister ( my jockey to follow ) has a solid looking ride in this riding LITTLE BOY BORU and this 8/1 shot comes into this with every chance having conditions to suit and im sure based on recent evidence he stays and having rode it last twice will know exactly what buttons to press and when and looks a decent EW bet although in truth i would be happier taking double figures and trading at around half odds...so i will wait...Batavir sees Pipe n McCoy team up and this has every chance and arrives in decent enough form even tho its been racing with conditions against so an improved performance is sure to be in the offing now but the 2/1 being offered screams LAY ME!!!!...and if i can get a lay in at anywhere near this i will fill my boots up and max out the account trying to get my money on because there is no way this is a 2/1 shot...3/1 or even 7/2 at the top....so if i can lay this at anything upto 3.6 i will gladly take that bet and anyone elses ( already had £300 matched ) this is gteed trade..nailed on...Spartan Angel should run a much bigger race today having its comeback over CD when 4th , Dream Deal is going in the right direction ...decent looking race and should be a good one to watch.

RESULT : Lay was traded as the Fav drifted so i dutched both the Fav and Spartan Angel with A.N.OTHER ( which won at 9.91 ) for a tasty win and a little bit of extras with the trade..Good result and a very nice win from Batavir @ 3.77 ( was trading as high as 5.6 )

RACE 6 :
For the Finale we have a Listed NHF race over 2m with a host of top class yards and very smart sorts on show with the field choc full of promise.
Rios Treasure @ 5/2 is a LAY as this is not in the top tier at the Mullins Yard and i feel he is just testing the water with this to see where his Champion bumpers rank , a crafty move but fully allowed as its running on merit but imo with little  chance even with the mighty Walsh steering.
Yanworth looks exciting and will obviously be a threat to all given connections and the Galileo Gelding Supasundae ( 1st @ 23.0 will have the advantage of blood given flat speed but i fancy a fap or EW dutch on THISTLECRACK and SIMON SQUIRREL as i feel both of these will be ready for this and could easily have enough class to damage a few reputations and they are at the right end of the betting table to get involved in such a tremendous looking race....not one to go crazy on but one if correct could prove rewarding.

RESULT : Rios Treasure was 3rd and Yanworth was a well beaten 2nd however mine ran around 5th and 7th...good race tho....

                                 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Have a great day...hopefully i can get a good idea of what to expect for Saturday and maybe win the Jackpot this week after narrowly missing out last weekend... ( 5 winners n a 2nd from 6 ).

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