Thursday, 17 April 2014

Summary for WEDS...

Hi All ,

Well i think Weds was a success overall even tho two of the MAX lays ended up winning but they did trade in running ( results to follow ) ....and Bon Voyage went off at 7.57 which meant that it was a 1/2 Max Lay but still its a win , we also hit a very nice winner in Magnus Maximus at 35.50.....meaning the longshots would remain the days best earners....rare but nice...

Win Selection Winners = 3 @ 3.78 , 2.76 & 1.89 plus places at 7.60 , 3.32 and 3.72 giving a return or run from ALL 6 races....this would have made a nice EW ACCA ( $1 EW acca returns approx $13.10 returning over 6/1 on stake ).

EW selection returns > Rather oddly very poor return from the EW's with just one place at 6.4.....so this wasnt the place to be looking today.....

Longshot Selections > 1st at a huge 35.50 , 2nd @ 11.41 and a 2nd @ 4.54 meant that for the funsters ( Ricky , Paula etc ) this could have been a profitable day on a level stakes basis.

Thru the card with all selections we hit the placepot easy amassing 16 Lines but at $25.30 this wud result in a full spread loss unless you clipped and used the nap as a banker.

TRADES / LAYS > Well we had 3 Main Lays which to be traded , First biggy was Bon Voyage which went off at 7.4 and never did anything and never traded lower this was an easy trade, the 2nd was SHIFTING POWER this went off at 2.76 and hit 30.0 in the run so was another very trade and finally we had SANDIVA which went of at around 4.8 but was easily matched in the run at 10.0  ( Last two runners both ended up winning ) so all in all i would say this was a cast success.....i just hope you guys are learning the value and art of trading rather than riding your luck......

Imo i think the years first proper post was a success...Views anyone ?...

Tuesday, 15 April 2014

Early Thursday Thoughts....

 Morning / Afternoon , Another sunny day means another " Beach Day " and so for the early Thursday review i will focus on the days 4 main big trial races and hopefully i can guide you to some profit or give you another angle in which you can dissect and scrutinise....

Todays 1st Race is the WOOD DITTON a race for 3 yr olds over 1m and a race won previously by the likes of Mukhadram although in truth the winner of this rarely goes on to win much after and looking through the entire field of the last 3 years renewals i dont hold much hope for any in truth...this seems like a white elephant of a race....a poison chalice if you like....
But i will offer my own unique insight to try and unravel this affair...here goes..The first on my list would have to be the very well bred PRINCE OF STARS from Mick Channon and ridden by G Lee this Son of Sea The Stars son is a proper half sister to the very good Lady of the Desert ( 1st: 2009 Princess Margaret Stakes (GB-Gr2,6F-T, Ascot), 2009 Lowther Stakes (GB-Gr2,6F-T, York), 2010 Diadem Stakes (GB-Gr2,3yo+,1200m,Ascot)
2nd: 2010 Sprint Cup (GB-Gr1,3yo+,1200m,Haydock), 2010 Prix De L'Abbaye De Longchamp (FR-G1,2yo+,5f-T,Longchamp)
3rd: 2009 Cheveley Park Stakes (GB-Gr1,2yo F,1200m,Newmarket), 2010 Fred Darling Stakes (GB-Gr3,3yo F,1400m,Newbury).) and could prove to be a very good , speedy 2 yr old and should be watched in the markets.

I also like the other Sea The Stars colt MAWASEEL although the dam has no real progeny performances to call upon but still looks blue bred but is also the 2nd string for the owner as Hanaghan has taken the ride on Tabreek but i will not back any USA bred unless the ground turns firm or the blood provides a strong reason to change.

Finally i have heard some good words and received good reports regarding the Haggis trained SATELLITE by Danehill Dancer and this could be a proper group horse...but time will tell.....

My Selection would be Satellite as a Win / Place Lay as a lot of these precocious types will be looked after if the chance to win has gone...but in all honesty its not really a race to get to madly involved in.

RACE 2 is....THE ABERNANT STAKES a race over 6f for 3yr olds plus and is usually won by a sprinter with a touch of class but rarely by the Fav....and that is a stat the irks me here as i feel ALJAMAHEER has an outstanding chance ...that said all of its best form is over 1m..admittedly this form is outstanding but its still not sprint form..so where do we look , Es Que Love is an absolute nutcase but an outstanding speedball and if the switch to Cox has had the desired effect this could try and make all and burn them all off...but a lot of if's n butt's here with this....
TROPICS is the horse that comes under the banner " out n out sprinter " and will give them all a race and if in the mood could easily be upto winning this but sprinters rarely run two races alike...a good option but its a bet on a whim...

To be honest the remainder have it all to do in this company although they all have some back form which entitles them to a tad of respect but none could be backed with any confidence.

Summary : The Stats say the Fav cant win , ALJAMAHEER has all its best form over 1m but i do think it could prove to be a class above these , a small field lacking in options and real class this lay between Aljamaheer and Tropics and i will be going in with a win on Aljamaheer and a saver on Tropics.

Todays third race and the principal race of this meeting is the Craven and this has again received a poor turnout , this won last year by the brilliant Toronado and has been won by the Favourite 5 times in the last 7 runs and 3 times in the last 4 and this years Favourite is likely to be 122 rated Toormore ( Toronado only rated 114 last year ) and this comes here unbeaten in 3 although i dont feel it beat much at the Curragh but its run in the Vintage Stakes was very good indeed and this will take a world of beating if back to that level or higher.
The Grey Gatsby doesnt look good enough and will have to have improved markedly to get involved here today , Be Ready and Postponed both look interesting ass they hold decent enough form already and with improvement expected could easily be upto making a race of this but Anjaal looked a bit of a speed merchant at 2 and will do well to transfer his form at 1m on the first go....

Everywhere you look it ends up coming back to the Fav and in all honesty backing against it here is a mugs bet...may pay off but you will need more luck than judgement to come out on top......SUMMARY : Win on the Fav is the only logical bet choice to make.

Finally we have the Earl of Sefton stakes for the older brigade  ( 4yr + ) and this is just packed with " ye olde enemies " as these all pretty much have form against one and other with some collateral form thrown in to mix it up.
FIRST MOHICAN can give Alan King a tidy winner as this former Cecil inmate is a very useful flat performer and destroyed a couple of good fields previously when winning tat York and Nottingham over this distance and any return to that form would put it in with a big chance.
Elsewhere JUST THE JUDGE will be looking to get his career back on track after running two very poor races last season as his season nosedived after 3 very good runs especially when winning the Irish 1000 Guineas and had only been denied by the brilliance of Sky Lantern and any real return of form and this will be hawking them all up and could easily run a place or better.
The remainder all have a Chance of sorts and a solid case could be reasonably made for any and i certainly wouldnt try and talk anyone out of backing the outsiders here as i really dont feel there are any.

Summary: I will be backing Just the Judge and First Mohican in a decent sized dutch and will looking to get small place lays matched at around the 1.12 mark as both have the potential to flatter only to deceive ....

Thats it for Day 2 as i hit the Bar once again....TTFN x

Monday, 14 April 2014

Afternoon from the Costa Blanca...

Hi All ,
         As i enter the final week of my stay in the sun i am starting to focus and gather my stats and this is why im posting this early card , thoughts and analysis for Weds as that heralds the start of the classic month as it is Craven time and this is when the shit gets real.....

The last couple of short posts have been fruitful and have provided plenty of profit bearing analysis and tip / bet selection...so im hoping im coming into this flt season on point and in tune although i dont have a breeding program to work from just yet im sure over the next few weeks this will come to light.

So lets take a look at Newmarket on WEDS and see how we fare...
As you can see this is a rather unique course and is also termed as the home of racing or HQ ( Head Quarters ) with most races  ( certainly upto 1m2f ) ran on a straight line where pace and tactics will be pivotal to any success , a strong front runner can do very well likewise a good strong finisher that is well ridden can easily find  spot to pounce and this is also  course that runs true and allows for a literal reading of form lines unless the ground rips up soft or worse as this can provide some odd times and stranger results.

NEWMARKET WEDS >>
Todays big three races will be the European Free Hcap , Nell Gwynn and the Fielden Stakes.......let the fun begin.

RACE 1
WIN - PROVIDENT SPIRIT - 1st @ 1.89
EW - EMIRATI SPIRIT -
LONG - SPECULATIVE BID -

ANALYSIS - A tricky 3 yr old maiden to start the card where most with experience look only average although improvement will be expected as the norm and we have a few well bred sorts.
The best bred is probably EMIRATI SPIRIT  a New Approach colt that looks to be Varians main hope as its being ridden by the stables newly appointed retained jockey A Atzeni and should be watched when betting starts any strong support would make me very keen and likewise if it is drifter then i would leave or lay.Imo the strongest with form is probably Provident Spirit but in truth all the form on offer is quite weak my personal preference is for Speculative Bid who ran well enough behind Jallota on his last run to suggest more improvement is in the offing and this could go off at decent price.
________________________________
RACE 2
WIN - HARRY HURRICANE -  ( EW NAP ) - 3rd @ 3.72
EW - FLYBALL -
LONG - ABSCENT FRIENDS - 2nd @ 11.41

ANALYSIS - Next up is a tidy little 5f race for 2yr old speedballs and this should in all honesty be dominated by the three that have form including winning form and they are FLYBALL , ABSCENT FRIENDS &  HARRY HURRICANE and my preference at this stage is for HARRY HURRICANE that was beaten fto by Flyball but was only beaten a neck/nose and now receives enough weight to easily turn the tables plus you would expect HH to carry more improvement into this as that was his first run and i feel a similar run will be good enough to both turn the tables and win although Flyball has proven to be a tough nut to crack, Abscent Friends comes from the wily yrd of Bill Turner and his speedsters re always ready and worth fearing at the early season stage however it won at Southwell fto and will do well to carry that form into this his first start on the turf but dont write off completely...
________________________________
RACE 3
WIN - TOOFI - 2nd @ 3.32
EW - WEDDING RING -
LONG - MAGNUS MAXIMUS - 1st @ 35.05

ANALYSIS - Now we have the 100k Tatts race for 3 yr olds over 6f with a rather poor turnout considering its a $54k race...just the 13 runners but at the same time this is a tight affair with very little to separate most of these , we lots of form both literal , lateral and collateral to decide upon and their is also a disparity in the weights /ratings.....
I think the first place to look is with TOOFI who is a CD winner and has multiple CD form and comes into this one of the highest rated , is racing on pretty much its ideal surface and this trip should be spot on although being by Henrythenavigator one would think or expect it to want 1m later on but at this stage this looks to me the likeliest winner and if betting win single only this would probably be my choice.
WEDDING RING could be interesting back over 6f who herself is a CD winner and also gets a sex allowance however her splits were average and the time a good bit slower than a few others plus she doesnt look a natural sprinter and after this a step back upto 7f or even another crack at 1m will surely be in the offing....
BON VOYAGE at anything remotely sensible will be a MAX LAY for me and i will also try to nil a bit in running as i see no way this winning today....or any day in this grade on available evidence.
The Richard Hannon 2nd string looks quite good tho MAGNUS MAXIMUS and could run a big race if trained on as it had some good splits in its last rce and this track will run ideal and you can throw a blanket over the remainder so a speculative longshot maybe Naadir for the Botti yard with Luke Morris riding.....
________________________________
RACE 4
WIN - SHIFTING POWER - 1st @ 2.76 ( hit 30.0 in run )
EW - MIRACLE OF MEDINAH -
LONG - MUSHIR - 2nd @ 4.54

ANALYSIS - The first of todays big races as we hold the European Free Handicap a race by many a star or horse of quality including the likes of last years winner Garswood ( didnt end up staying 1m but held its form over shorter throughout the season ) and ...well thats it really.....yes this is a reasonably high profile early season race but carries no weight now what so ever as just about every winner from the last twenty years has proven to be average  or worse with very few coming through to be anything else..../..another stat is that Favs have a rather shite record in this with the winner usually being either the second or third fav so this looks an obvious dutch to me in a small field event with an unbalanced book.
Tough to call the winner even with  dutch at this stage so i will say that come race day should Shifting Power be 2.6 or less then it simply becomes a MAX LAY as the bet and a trade is nailed on as this will be a very oddly run race with all bar The fav and Mushir likely pace setters.....
________________________________
RACE 5
WIN - MAJEYDA - 3rd @7.60
EW - EURO CHARLINE - 2nd @ 6.4
LONG - LILY RULES - 6th ( only beaten 3L @ 55.0 )

ANALYSIS - The second of the days big three races The Nell Gwynn a 7f affair with 15 runners and this looks pretty decent and rather competitive and it looks stacked with pace so expect fireworks...
The first runner to come up on my radar is LILY RULES a proven Distance winner that has shown on several occasions tht it stays the trip with ease, can race on or off the pce can quicken and has the heart for a fight and this was trained by the likes of Stoute , Appleby etc then it would be a good deal shorter...This could run a huge race at a Huge price....at the sort of odds im expecting then a few quid on a FAP is a no harm done bet.
Majeyda is a danger and will run a big race , another CD winner with excellent placed form over 1m  ( May Hill stakes being easily the best ) and will get  very smooth run through as SDS takes over from Inspector Clouseau in the saddle....i will be a little surprised if this cant place at least.
Miss Lillie heads a supporting cast of at least 10 others that all have claims of a sort....this is when it becomes a guessing game and personal choice takes over from the form guide and statistics...
***This race is a graveyard for Favourites....Sandiva at fair odds is a big Lay...( currently ) ...Sandiva went off the 4.98 Fav , WON but traded comfortably @ 10.0 in the run...another easy trade.
________________________________
RACE 6
WIN - TRUE STORY - 1st @ 3.80
EW - SOMEWHAT -
LONG - MADEED -

***First three home were well clear...

ANALYSIS - Possibly the toughest of the days featured races the Fielden over  tough 1m1f which not many can get and even less so this early on and it takes a proper staying sort to get this trip at pace which we have for sure.
a tricky race in which nearly 30lbs separates the top rated from the bottom but racing t level weights bar Somewhat who carries a penalty for winning a Class 1 ( Washington Singer ) over 7f t Newbury ( form at Newbury is always a dispute ) but must come into the reckoning as it was a good 2nd  ( beaten a neck ) in the Royal Lodge stakes over 1m and was running on strong t the end and i feel the step up in trip will be no problem at all although the ground will be an issue should it ride any softer than good.
Barley Mow looks a stayer in the making along with Madeed and Obliterator making this a good trials race for all the classics although last years winner Intello was the last half decent winner.....and again is another that Favs have a poor record........
TRUE STORY looks to be  very interesting runner from the boys in blue as both of its runs ( 1st n 2nd ) were here at HQ and both over 7f where it showed a willing attitude and being by Manduro will be expected to be an improved stayer over the course of the season as this bloodline is one that  improves with both age and distance and i am expecting big things from this and again its a billy bonus that SDS takes the ride ( still think he is nos 1 for the stable over the clown that is Barzalona ) .....

________________________________

So all in all a tough day with tough decisions but some quality racing and a day where we will have a good gauge on how stables are performing, jockeys are riding and what we are up against , today is not a day to smash as most races will require a watching brief but i think we can profit from some good Lays and trades as most have the opportunity for both , hopefully back tmrw for another advanced read on Thursdays card....
_________________________________

**In the 1710 both AYRAD ( 5th )  and CONNECTICUT ( 3rd at 28.63 ) are on my long range breeders guide and in the 1740 KAAB and GREEB ( 3rd @ 8.41 ) both look interesting improvers....TTFN x

Saturday, 12 April 2014

Morning Friends , Romans and Noblemen...

As i approach the back end of my protracted 4 week stay in Spain the flat  season has developed and grown and is approaching the realms of normality and today we get a couple of stars out to flex their respective muscle as Newbury today the Fred Darling and the Greenham and both look very very tough and getting the winner in these will prove very tricky indeed as so much has to be taken on trust as so much can change between 2 and 3 years old...i have seen some very smart and almost bomb proof two year olds do nothing as a 3 year old....so you can only trust your opinion on what is available and previously seen.
 Elsewhere......

Surely...surely.....MY TENT OR YOURS will prove too good at Ayr and take down their Scottish Champion Hurdle , with most inc Montbazon all looking up against it i see no way this loses today and i feel the 2.08 is an absolute steal as i in all honesty rate this at 1/2 ( 1.50 ) and i think this is a proper Value bet , this is too big to ignore......ALL IN >>>

Back over at Newbury...here are my thoughts for today as i start to step up a gear or two.....

In the opening Maiden race we have a hot fav in the shape of MUTAKAYYEF @ 2.08  and this has some form as it come 2nd fto running on at the end after looking green and awkward through the race but at no stage did this look like a star in the making and with the field packed with potential it simply has to be taken on....Max LTB for me.............the two i liked on  breeding Hoy Hoy and Elite Force are both 50/1....

Next up is a tough looking JOHN PORTER stakes race over 1m4f for the elder generation and this looks a very nice renewal ( for the bookmakers )....Personally i shall be sticking with Noble Mission  , this is out of blind (* and stupid ) loyalty as its far from being a certain winner but today is one of those days in which i like to unwind and have some fun .....For my Placepot i will be also including Quiz Mistress......Tough Tough race....

Finally for today ( running out of time ) we have the FRED DARLING a starting point for many a classic aspiration and this on paper looks red hot....JOYEUSE is my HCE tipping comp tip and i will obv be sticking with my Frankel connections here although it will have to not only be in top shape but will have to have improved at least 10lbs to get one over Al Thakira who looks the most likeliest winner on paper but Al Thakira is rated a very very high 9.96 on my Stat Scale  ( for Laying or LTB ) and this makes it a gold rated  , turbo charged..super MAX LTB for me.....and hopefully my HCE tip can show some improvement and sneak in....

So regrettably thats it for today but i will be home soon and the cards and analysis will start to return back to their normal levels...Good Luck today All...


Friday, 4 April 2014

SnapChat and views from the Costa ;-)

Hola ,

Buenos Dias Amigo's ,


The weather for April is again outstanding after a couple of days of light cloud and high winds we have now reverted to type...glorious blue skies, hot sun and warm air.....

Yesterdays blog provided a few ok bets and some solid analysis although i will confess to being a bit surprised at Guitar Pete winning with that late last 1f surge....but we hit 2nd , 3rd and 4th for a good run of consistency , plus we nailed the obvious dutch in the next and just lucked out with a 2nd in the race that followed and then we again hit 2nd with Oscar Whiskey as it was left to much to do and stormed home but just couldnt get there....cant complain on the day..profit was made and that is always good...

Another great winner from E.R.I.C yesterday  ( log into HCE and follow ) after a few quiet days and near misses , well worth following readers.

What have we for today...well day 2 of the great Aintree festival and its Ladies Day and it again looks a nice card with some quality about , as time is again of the premium i will not post a card but i will run right thru the card giving various betting and horse thoughts and it will be your job to find the diamonds among the coal.....

AINTREE DAY 2 >>>

Well we start the day of with a tasty looking 2m Hurdle race with JOSSES HILL coming in as a well supported 2.7 Fav having been properly smashed in for big money from 3.0 all the way down and in all honesty looks the likeliest winner on form and shown ability , its holds a few on literal form and a few others on collateral form and will be very hard to beat with the prospect of further improvement a given ( thru experience ) and not forgetting Hendo has won the race ( farmed ) 3 times in the last four years and the last twice with two very very high class sorts in Darlan and My Tent or Yours so is now thinking this is worth an upgrade ( Josses Hill ) , a win bet on this is probably the safest bet with the EW value hunters  lurking they would be wise to look at Baltimore Rock ( 11/1 ) who i know is well regarded and looks a very progressive type and is gteed to run its race.>>>RESULT > JOSSES HILL - 1st @ 2.54 ;-))

>>>>>

Battery has run out...looking for a charge point >>>>...

and im back......

RACE 2 >> ...The MILDMAY Chase and a small field that looks tight as so many have interlocking form and i feel the " Value " could lay with DON COSSACK @ 7/1 as this was going well until falling during the 2nd circuit and with a clear round will surely make a race of it , not a sure fire winner by a long way but is certainly in with a decent looking shout based on all known form.
Wonderful Charm @ 5.3 is a solid looking Lay as this is a real doubtful and weak stayer and i will happily be taking this on.

>>>>>>RESULT = HOLLYWELL 1st ( Don Cossack 2nd @ 5.50 )

RACE 3 >>>.....We now move onto the MELLING CHASE and this looks an intriguing race as many come into this on the back of top level form, broken promises and reputations that need to be restored.
The Fav for todays race is RAJDHANI EXPRESS @ 5.8 and is a fav in name only as the book needs to be balanced and this has rather unluckily been given the Favs slot...although its not without a chance i certainly wouldnt be backing it at such cramped and uninspiring odds, BALLYNAGOUR is an interesting runner for me having scooped my award for race of the festival as this absolutely hacked up and looked a cut above the opposition but this has been better when racing after a break and it was also patently laid out for that Cheltenham race and i think as good as it was this is a tough ask.....but i wouldnt be shocked to see it win.....I think the " Class " in this race is supplied by WISHFUL THINKING and if this is on a going day then will surely be too good imo however a lot has to be taken on trust as you just never know what type of mood this will be in or what type of race it will decide it wants to race......and finally as you may know im a fan of MODULE and although it may just lack the class to be truly competitive at Grade 1 level i think it has easily enough to get involved in this.>>>My Bet BALLYNAGOUR ran a cracker to come 3rd @ 6.0 ( hit 1.42 in the run ) , willie Mullins wins it with Boston Bob.

RACE 4 >>>>
Now we have a tough looking TOPHAM CHASE over the national course and this looks very competitive and 12/1 the field shows you how tough this is...
The horse i like in this will have to carry less ( or equal )  than 10-12 ( stat anomaly ) so the first will be CEDRE BLEU who just scrapes in on 10-12 and at very big odds a cheeky EW on BENNYS MIST as this is a race not to get too financially involved in. - Result - BoooooM as BENNY'S MIST runs a great race for 2nd @ 75/1 ( 12.50 )

RACE 5 >>>>>
This years renewal of the SEFTON looks a crazy affair as any one of around 10 look to have the ability to win....and im going to row in with a very tentative selection on CAPOTE.......and hope AP can provide the requisite magic although it will have to again show further improvement.

Thats me done for today , sun , beer and some lazy trading beckons.....CIAO...x



Thursday, 3 April 2014

Greetings from Spain >>>

Morning All , as you may have noticed the blogging has been rather quiet for a couple of weeks and this is because i am currently in Spain on more business than pleasure although its always a pleasure doing any work when its a nice 80 degrees ;-).
So here i am burning thru the country's WI-FI in order to fully examine the start of a great looking Aintree festival and it looks outstanding and deserves to be supported no less than the Cheltenham festival , all the big guns are out and some well hyped names on show.
This will be the final NH post for the season as the flat will be taking over in earnest from the weekend.

So what have we got to look forward to today.....THE NEW ONE for starters who is accompanied by Silvi Conti , Dynaste and a good few others...so without further ado lets crack on......

RACE 1 > 

Injured Jockeys Fund 50th Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)2m 1f

  • (4yo, 2m 1f, Class 1, 15 runners)
  • Winner £56,270 2nd £21,200 3rd £10,610 4th £5,300 5th £2,660 6th£1,330 7th £660 8th £340
  • Going: Good, Good to Soft in places
  • Surface: Turf
.A wide open affair to start and not because of any one reason , the field is tight , big in size  with most having shown similar levels of ability it is hard to really get an angle thru this and it looks a typical 10/1 the field race.
The two leading protagonists do look the most likely winners based on current form and running ability , ACTIVAL was a good winner lto winning the Adonis and looks a sort on the upgrade and the fact it swerved Cheltenham for this only serves to strengthen its case and will be involved in the finish.
CALIPTO is the other and would arguably have won lto at the Festival had it not lost its stirrups after being hampered 2f out and that left Daryl Jacob unable to ride a finish out but still did surprisingly well and with better luck in running will surely be out for some compensation today and it would be no surprise to see this win.
Statswise its a curious race as favourites when heavily fancied and punted do well with a few recent winners coming in at Evens , 4/6 , 11/8 and 2/1 but when we have a more open race like today you generally find it going to a bigger double priced runner but is there anything out there good enough to reverse any recent form or improve enough.....???...
Well the three i like are CLARCAM who imo would have won the Fred Winter had it not tipped up 2f out when moving into the lead and at 20/1 looks a nice bet , Hawk High who actually won the Fred Winter looks a progressive battling sort and is well worth some coin at around 14/1 and finally we have Commissioned from the bully boy stable of Ferguson and this is entitled to run to an improved rating as it is lightly raced and has a lot of scope and i have a sneaky feeling this has been kept cool for a race like this if not exactly this.

WIN - CALIPTO - 3rd @ 5.22
EW - CLARCAM - 2nd @ 21.0
LONG - COMMISSIONED - 4th @ 21.77

____________________________________________________

and has the day has developed into a scorcher i am going to keep the remainder short n sweet...sorry guys......

Betfred Bowl > This is for me a straight fight between DYNASTE and SILVI' CONTI with the rest looking outclassed or passed it and i see no way FL can reverse any recent form lines and the current prices allow for a nice Dutch Win bet.-SILVI CONTI > 1st @ 3.25 & DYNASTE 2nd @ 2.68

In the AINTREE HURDLE....We see the return of THE NEW ONE and at 1.38 is priced correctly as its my true belief that this is a true great in the making plus it thrashed Rock on Ruby earlier in the season by 10L without coming off the bridle and i see no way this smooth traveling , solid jumping star will get beat.....> 1st @ 1.48 ( only just got up to beat Rock on Ruby & Diakali )

In the Pinsent Manifesto Chase ( 1650 ) i think we should stick with Oscar Whiskey in what is arguably the days toughest race with both Western Warhorse and Dodging Bullets providing a stern test.

and thats it for today ....maybe if i get more time tmrw i will do more ...ttfn ya miserable fuckers.

Wednesday, 19 March 2014

Looking at Lingfield ....

Morning All ,
                  Its a nice n quiet week after the kerfuffle that was Cheltenham and i think today we can have a look at Lingfield or more pertinently the Favourites  @ Lingers..
                                                

The AW track at Lingers is rather unique and fairly basic in all honesty as you can see but the draw can have a major impact especially in races upto 1m where the draw bias is more prevalent.

" Key Characteristics >>>

The Lingfield all weather course uses polytrack and the surface is probably the fastest of all the A/W racecourses in the UK. The believe is that front runners cannot win at Lingfield and because of this you often get falsely run races as nobody wants to lead. It is actually possible to win from the front if a horse gets given a soft lead. Otherwise the final turn which is preceded by a downhill section appears to act as a kind of slingshot similar to that in cycling, and the lead can change many times in the last furlong as horses shoot from the pack. The turf course is used a lot less often than the A/W course, however a strong bias appears to exist in that the far rail away from the grandstand is a lot quicker than other parts of the course. This fact means that in longer races front runners are favoured as they are able to bag that far rail, and any challengers have to come round them on the slower ground " .

So today we can use this information to help us decide on what Favs to back and which we should be laying...or in some cases just leaving alone all together....

RACE 1 : MINSTRELS GALLERY @ 4.1
This won its maiden at Southwell back in March 2012 was given a rating based upon that of a rather high 78 it then raced in the Craven Stakes which is a huge jump in class and although down the firld it got to within 12L of the impressive Trumpet Major unfortunately this also pushed its core rating upto 87 it then went Hcapping and come last or towards the rear in every race it entered and the 87 was looking crazy high so it started to fall as you would expect but in Dec 2012 after running 11/12 again it suffered an injury that sidelined it for 15 Months upon its return to racing at Kempton it started off at a more realistic 52 and it ran ok coming 2nd , slowly away it had the very good Robert Tart nursing him through this , cajoling at midway and Fleetwoodsands just had the edge that day however putting this into perspective this was a Grade 6 affair with the 3rd home rated just 52 and the winner coming home off a mark off just 48 ( former 52 rated ) which makes this a very low grade race and i think a rating of around 48 - 56 will be the limit of this horses ability and anything racing against it that is genuine and higher rated or has better form will probably beat it.

Now this is the right race for Minstrels Gallery with most of these racing garbage , out of form or just plain useless but there are still at least 5 solid runners in opposition which makes this a Good Value LAY imo as the list in opposition is as follows....

  1. PETERSBODEN @ 9.0
  2. FINAL DELIVERY @ 5.3
  3. LITMUS @ 18.0
  4. DANIEL THOMAS @ 5.50
  5. SCAMPERDALE @ 20
Now its my belief that any one of this five could win and worse case scenario is a TRADE as Robert Tart ( todays rider ) kept it hung out back  ( started slowly ) and made no effort to make early inroads so its my thought that this tactic will again be tried today as the pace is likely to be provided by Litmus , Scamperdale and Final Delivery and at the very minimum this will trade at 6.4 in the run so there is profit to be made there imo...Plenty to think about , plenty of options and good luck if you decide to get involved...for me its a straight LAY unless of course come pre race its drifted right out to 6+ then i will just take the easy option...;-)...

Result / Synopsis : MINSTRELS GALLERY Won this very easily and looks a cut above these and could easily get involved with anything upto around 66 so im suggesting this has 10lb in hand , R Tart grabbed a good spot in around 4th all the way hanging off a slow pace and moved to the front around the bend , lengthened and quickened and pulled away with ease...hit a high of 5.1 in the run from a BFSP of 3.37 i traded out as soon as the first 1f had run as it was obvious new tactics were being tested...

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