Friday, 1 August 2014

Markel Insurance Nassau Stakes (British Champions Series) (Fillies' Group 1)

Afternoon All ,
...well we had a thrilling day yesterday and for me it was a bit more profit in the pocket as Not only did my Saver bet on Pethers Moon Win but Encke ran who ran a solid race to come 2nd after 685 days off hit 2.98 in the run from a BFSP of 8.55 and i traded out at 3.0 so just got in there.

We move into the final day of what has been a grand ol week of racing from the Sussex Downs and we have just the one GP1 to look at but its a corker , The " Nassau " is a good quality race that trainers take affection to as Sir HRAC won it three years running with the gutsy Midday and previously had been won twice on the spin by the coolmore mafia and most recently the last two runnings have been won by Senor Gosden so who will take their turn today well rather Sadly Sir HRAC is no longer with us and his wife Julie doesnt have anything entered up so it looks like it could be O'Brien with the one runner and Gosden with two.

Racing over this 1m1f will be within every runners compass as most have been tried , tested or campaigned over further with only the ground the likely boost factor for some.

Venus Di Milo is a nice looking daughter of Duke of Marmalade and has run some solid races in defeat most notably lto when out stayed by Thistle Bird and previously when outgunned by the Fugue so looks to have the ability to a point but i think those runs are at the upper end of what she can achieve and although heavily backed for this ( Backed in from 9/2 > 5/2 , although no serious coin has been put down on Betfair @ 3.60 )  ) i think there are one or two with a bit more scope and with just about a better chance, its not to say she cant or wont win but i can see her getting placed and run out it once again.

Mango Diva has her own form and a line through Thistle Bird which gives her an almost identical profile and chance yet is double the price which isnt so much a negative for her but does look skinny on  Venus Di Milo
Mango herself is no great shakes and rated 106 is another i feel is about as good as she is going to be, a labored performer with no real turn of foot but does stay on rather dourly and could surprise if the race fell in her lap but with the opposition in place i feel that wont be the case.

Amazing Maria ran terribly in the Oaks and im sure something must have been amiss as she is rated highly in the yard and looked very progressive last term but i cannot wager on hope alone so is overlooked.

Lustrous is another that performed woefully lto but did run rather well in the Ribbelsdale before that and won the Micheal Seeley quite tidily so could def get into the mix here but is she good enough..well i again dont think so but if the race tactics fall her way she can take advantage of any breaks but will probably need a career best..not out of the question just highly unlikely.

Eastern Belle for Gosden Won well lto and has a solid profile but she only beat two runners both rated 93 and although good in the contect of that race she will have to improve again by 10-15lbs here to just make the frame and i would say this is most unlikely ( the win ) a nice horse but not shown herself to be upto this although looking at Fridays Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes where the 1st & 2nd had stepped up from Hcaps to easily beat the field that had classic placed form that is not always but quite often the case where one or two can make the jump into pattern company , cant easily dismiss but dismissed none the less.

SULTANINA is one i like , progressive profile and on the upward curve although her stamina may have been stretched lto this drop back in trip will suit very much and her win in the Pinnacle Stakes looks very good in the context of this race as the three behind were rated 100/99/104 which is bang where she needs to be to get competitive here and the horse ( Pomology ) that beat her lto by just over 2L is rated 110 which makes her easily good enough to win and the current 5.40 looks an attractive price and it certainly enough to get me interested.

Finally we look at NARNYIN from France and a superbly bred daughter of Dubawi who has raced mainly at Group level but has been beaten quite easily in some of these which includes a thrashing by Spiritjim where Noble Mission was a Neck 2nd and a run like that sees her back on the first ferry home she will have to run right to her peak , show a liking for the fast ground and get to grips with Goodwood all of which make for just two many unanswered questions and variables to be interested

Bet Summary : I would say on pure form Venus Di Milo is probably the one to beat but the price is poor in consideration for her opponents and with that i am going to go in with a level stake Dutch on MANGO DIVA & SULTANINA both of whom imo hold strong chances and enough scope to outperform their market strength ( 6.0 & 6.0 )

RESULT : 

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Thursday, 31 July 2014

Coutts Glorious Stakes

Evening all ,

A rather frustrating day yesterday as once again the old dog in Brown Panther surfaced and that will be the last time it gets any coin from me thankfully tho my stake was saved on the lay on the Fav Estimate which as expected flopped but i did rather well elsewhere to bring a smile or two upon ones fizz ogg ;-)

Friday sees yet more glorious action from Goodwood and its the first race that really catches my eye as we see the re-emergence of ENCKE who lto beat the wonderful Camelot in the St Leger and is rated 120p now if this race had been its first since the St Leger of 2013 then we would be looking at a price in the region of 4/6 , possibly 4/5 but that imo would have been generous so lets settle on 8/11...but because it hasnt run for 685 days yes almost two years!!...its posted up on Betfair at a staggering 5.2...five point fucking two....this simply has to be smashed up...its one of those bets where you throw your money and go " if it loses fuck it ,  had to be done ".....its just too big a gift....if its fit enough to do itself justice and retains his old ability then it will smash these to bits...if it fails the Pethers Moon will probably be good enough to win.

Quest for Peace has been globetrotting with little success , Songcraft is very average , Battle of Marengo is pathetic, Aussie Reigns barely stays the length of its horse box and Cafe Society who won its penultimate start beating into 2nd and 3rd two horses rated 85 and 88...i will be fucking destroyed if shit like that can win...shouldn't even be in the line up...

So we have a match up...proven uber class form of Encke and current form choice Pethers Moon....If the old Encke turns up then its game over as it is realistically 10-15lb better than these at the minimum however he can run to 20lb below his mark and still be in with a chance of winning and Pethers Moon is the only viable alternative...

Bet Summary : MAX WIN on ENCKE with a stake back saver on Pethers Moon.

RESULT : Pethers Moon 1st @ 2.23 & Encke 2nd @ 8.55 ( hit 2.98 itr ) ...Good result with no loss.


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Artemis Goodwood Cup

No Group one's today folks but we do have a Group 2 we can look at which should also be a great race to watch.
The ARTEMIS CUP is a solid Group 2 racing over 2m and with a decent looking 9 Runners this promises to be a proper race with some real stayers in the field and a bit of class ta boot.
From the 9 we have 6 Distance Winners which includes a Course and Distance winner  and a CD winner so this should prove to be a battle royale.
Today's Favourite is ESTIMATE @ 3.1 and this is a beautiful stayer with a wonderful tank of an engine however i do feel that this 2m trip is the shortest test she needs and this is a trip she is most vulnerable at , yes she has multiple victories over this 2m trip but most were against much lesser opponents or against flat out non stayers so her attritional running on style was good enough , take her last win over 2m in the Sagaro stakes where she raced mainly against group 3 at best or handicappers and the 2nd , 3rd, 4th and 5th in that race were all hard at / pushed along or just plain ridden at the 1f pole whilst Estimate was just warming up and getting into gear and Won this by an easy 1 1/2L,  its easy beating beaten horses and with nothing able to quicken she had the race at her mercy but today she will find a few of these a completely different proposition and with some real quality in opposition i feel at the price she has to be taken on and laid or dutched/backed against.
So what have we got running for us today ?...Forgotten Voice i feel does stay as he has shown over the sticks however all his best flat form is over a lesser set of trips and i think 1m4-1m6 is probably his optimum so i will give this a miss today , Cavalryman who is rather enigmatic , a horse with undoubted class and ability but so frustrating , has won several times over this trip with the last couple being at Meydan , thrashed in this race last year by Brown Panther but did win the Esher Stakes the year before ( looking at races around this time of year as a parallel ) and i can make no firm judgement as regards his chances here today , can win , has the ability to win , has the class to win and has the back form to win but has shown on several occasions that he is just as likely to throw a strop or not compete if the mood takes him at 6.4 its not really enough to tempt me him but im sure Fallon will give him every chance...possibilities but not for me.
Angel Gabrial is a northern flat track bully with limited staying powers and experience and i simply cannot see this getting involved at the finish.
BRASS RING however is a very interesting sort indeed and could add to the Abdulla trophy cabinet which has seen two wins this week already in Snow Sky and Kingman and the Gosden/Doyle combo are looking at leading their respective fields , this big Rail Link Gelding is bred for staying and after some in out performances it was thrown into the foray that was the Queen Alexandra Stakes over 2m5f but this day he pulled like a train ( only 7 runs still so could be a bit green ) and the rider was forced to go with the leaders and let some rein out and from the 10f pole to 1f out he led and ran very well before weakening but running on to come 3rd this was a spirited performance of zest , zeal and guts but this trip of 2m is a complete unknown , yes he will def stay but can stay this and race and be able to quicken when required...just staying on is rarely enough to win and it wont be today imo...your guessing a bit but to make this almost the outsider at around 20/1 i think is a joke and i think this is a price that is worth a few shillings from anyone's wallet or purse as an EW bet to nothing.
Ahzeemah is another frustrating Godolphin runner , plenty of ability ( 2nd in this race last year ) but throws in too many shockers and its recent form is dire so offers nothing to enthuse about in any form , poor horse and a poor price.
Excellent Result has shown nothing thus far to suggest its a stayer in the making and is probably a pace maker , Whiplash Willie stayed on for 3rd lto running past beaten horses and gives little insight into his staying prowess however he was being hard ridden 1f out just to stay in touch so my guess is that he stays but only just and as i write this i see he has now been pulled out..so thats two non runners now.
So that just leaves us with BROWN PANTHER a horse i detested a couple of years back as it was a complete non trying dog but has since been rejuvenated and is starting to look a class act in the staying game and i do feel that this is truly the one they all have to beat and to say its 4.50...well i think thats a bloody good price for a CD winner and last years winner of this very race ( won it comfortably ) proven stayer on most ground types ( likes todays surface ) and can race at any pace and if he can race to the form of his May win in the Cantor Stakes then it will have to be a career best from one of the others to lower his colours as he won that day with consummate ease beating High Jinx by over 3L and Whiplash Willie by over 5L this will win if he runs true to form imo.

Bet Summary : Brown Panther WIN & Brass Ring EW @ 4.5 / 18.0 ( will be having some at BFSP as well ) the bet staking for this will be staggered (  ie : £100 Win on Brown Panther and £20 Win & £40 Place on Brass Ring , at the current 4.0 the place on Brass Ring i will break even on all bets BP fails and BR places ) i will just for shits n giggles also be having a " fun "and rather speculative RFC on the two which will pay handsomely if it comes in and the stakes in line with the example would be just £5 RFC ( £10 ) .
                                       RESULT : 1st CAVALRYMAN @ 7.92 ( A price i would have been interested in had i not already lodged my bets and stuck by my guns )   with Brown Panther a well beaten 3rd @ 4.50 ( EW money back ) and Azeemah in 2nd for a 'Dolphin 1-2..Estimate ( whom i also Laid for stake back ) was thrashed and never in it and Brass Ring was hung out the back , never put into the race  ( even with a slow early pace ) and didnt look good enough against the back class of the winner.       

Monday, 28 July 2014

Glorious Goodwood #Superb

                                                         
                        
Yes folks its that time of year its Glorious Goodwood and its one of my favourite times of the year although after the recent downpours im questioning just how glorious it actually is going to be.....but lets hope the sun returns long enough for us to enjoy this spectacle of racing with plenty of Group action to get stuck into.

Now looking at Day 1 im thinking its gonna be a tough week as some of these events look rather tasty which i guess is to be expected.

The first race for me to seriously look at is the Molecomb Stakes and although only a GP3 it does fall within my periscope view as its during the week that is GG , This is a sizzling race over 5f for the young uns in which rather predictably Hannon has had a good go at every year with 3 recent winners including 1st/2nd last year and this year once again he looks to have nailed it.
This race is rarely Won by anything better than a GP3 type but i have a feeling this year we could see that change as likely hot fav BEACON looks a class apart , Mukhmal a horse that went off 4/1 2nd Fav for the Norfolk Stakes ran ok to grab 6th spot and was only beaten 1 & 1/4L by Hot Fav The Great War ( 5th ) then ran in a 4 runner race nto as the 15/8F and was duly slammed 4L by Beacon giving the form profile a rock steady look but the 1.85 it currently is comes plenty short enough already and offers little unless your a big hitter but unfortunately i can offer no alternatives as this looks a ready made group 1 horse and really should rip this lot a new un'.

Bet : WIN on BEACON is the only serious bet as this will take a world of beating and it will need a run of around 110 to get in front and that gives most of the field around 20lb to find.....if this was a hcap and they were racing off level weights this would be deemed a technical K.O before the gates opened...should be a routResult -3rd ;-(..." Was a very poor and over confident ride but i think he just wasnt quick enough on the day..he was fairly hard at it 3f out just to stay the pace and although he quickened up inside the final 1f i still am not sure he would have won...the first two have both improved significantly  since their last runs and both are speed balls , right result in my eyes " .

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (2)Cotai GloryC Hills29-1G Baker3/1
Made virtually all, hard pressed when ridden inside final furlong, held on well towards finish opened 10/3 £5250-£1500 £3500-£1000 £2100-£600 £1750-£500 £1400-£400 £1667-£500
2nd (1)½Fast Act (IRE)K A Ryan29-1J P Spencer10/1
Went right start, soon in touch, hung right virtually throughout on outside, ridden and effort over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, kept on, just held towards finish opened 12/1
3rd (4)hdBeaconRichard Hannon29-1R Hughes10/11f
Tracked leaders, switched right inside final 2f, effort when not clear run 1f out, soon switched outside and ridden, ran on to press front pair final 100 yards, just held £7000-£7000 £2000-£2000 £1000-£1000(x2) £500-£500(x3) £2000-£2200(x2) £1364-£1500 £1000-£1100(x2) £636-£700 £500-£550(x3) £1000-£1200(x2)
                                                        ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Next Up is the GP2 Lennox Stakes over 7f for 3 + yrs and this is a decent enough renewal although it does feel like a glossed up Hcap in truth but has been won by some smart types in the past with the scores about level between 3 yr olds and their older brothers...6 apiece over the last 12 years so nothing to gain from that ( and 2 apiece from the last 4 years ) .
Toormore: Looks a million dollars
Toormore: Looks a million dollars
Toormore is reported to be "back to his best" as he aims to bounce back to form in the bet365 Lennox Stakes at Glorious Goodwood on Tuesday.
Richard Hannon's colt ended an unbeaten juvenile season as champion two-year-old after clinching Group One glory in the National Stakes at the Curragh and he looked every inch a Classic contender when making a winning return in Newmarket's Craven Stakes in mid-April.
However, he could finish only seventh in the 2000 Guineas and was similarly disappointing when sixth in the St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Toormore has his sights lowered for Tuesday's seven-furlong Group Two and Tim Palin, racing manager for owners Middleham Park Racing, has been told to expect a big improvement on the Sussex Downs.
Palin said: "The reports are he's back to his best. He's moved from Everleigh to Herridge and the words of Richard Hannon snr last were 'You'll see a different Toormore at Glorious Goodwood'. He looks a million dollars.
"He obviously won the Craven and we don't really know what happened for the next three months. Nothing really came to light, but he lost weight, he was dull in his coat and wasn't working as well as he can.
"We ran him in the Guineas and then the vibes weren't great going into Royal Ascot, but there is only one St James's Palace and we gave it a go. Maybe we shouldn't have run him.
"He doesn't carry his Group One penalty tomorrow as it's past the cut-off point now and he's a course and distance winner having won the Vintage Stakes last year, so he's going back to the scene of the crime.
"He won his Group One over seven furlongs and you could argue he might be even better over that trip than he is at a mile.
"The Hannon horses are always in peak condition at this time of year, he's drawn OK and I like the 7lb weight-for-age allowance. There really aren't any negatives...

And there you have it in a nutshell..TOORMORE and although his last run was a bit disappointing over 1m ( where he led or was in front rank for the first 7f ) i doubt if many or any of these could get to within 6L of Kingman who really is quite remarkable.
But again its another Fav but at least there is some meat on the Bones at 2.92 and although its nice to get a big priced selection running for you and have that dreamy 20/1 winner in most scenarios we would all just be happy getting the winner regardless and i back from stone cold facts not sentiment and the facts are that Toormore is the best horse in this race and if this was run as his 2nd of the season after he won the craven you would be lucky to get anything better than 10/11....its only that " is he / will he " factor that is bloating the prices as the bookies will be keen to pull in a load of coin on the others , yes you can make a case for laying or backing against it but you will need more luck than any form of judgement to come out successful and it you want to make money consistently then you have to follow facts and stop dreaming of the lottery type L15 you expect to win every Saturday ( although there is nothing wrong with a wee punt for fun )...

BET : Win on TOORMORE...Best horse again should Win.  < Result - 2nd ( Beaten a Neck , Another poor ride but there is no denying the fact that Toormore is not the horse we all thought , beaten fair n Square by old hand Es Que Love in a slowish time..poor race with very average horses...Well theres always tmrw....;(..

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (5)Es Que Love (IRE)C G Cox59-3A Kirby7/1
Tracked leading pair, switched left to challenge over 1f out, led narrowly inside final furlong, ridden and stayed on well final 100 yards opened 8/1 £4000-£500
2nd (6)nk10 Toormore (IRE)Richard Hannon38-10R Hughes5/6f
Tracked leader, driven to lead 2f out, ridden 1f out, headed narrowly inside final furlong, kept on, just held opened 10/11 £5000-£5000 £4000-£4000 £3000-£3000 £1000-£1000(x4) £2000-£2200 £1000-£1100(x2) £700-£770 £2000-£2400
3rd (4)½AnjaalRichard Hannon38-10P Hanagan25/1
Not much room start, held up in rear, driven 2f out, ridden and headway on outside over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, chased leading pair final 50 yards, just held
                                                  ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
And thats it for the Tuesday card as the rest form some tricky looking Hcaps...however we can now move onto what looks a smashing Wednesday with a couple of absolute crackers lying in wait....

Goodwood Racecourse
A straight six furlongs with a triangular loop on one side provides a variety of courses with the possibility of re-entering just above or below the five furlong gate. The cup course of about two and a half miles starts on a chute adjacent to the five furlong track, and running the reverse way of the course, turns left after about four furlongs and returns to the straight five furlong run in by the top bend. the Old Mile and seven furlong courses start on the Cup course and join the five furlong course on the lower bend. The five and six furlong (Stewards Cup) courses are perfectly straight, the first furlong of the latter being uphill and then slightly undulating to the finish. The sharp bends and downhill gradients suit the handy, well balanced neat actioned sort over middle distances, and are against the big long striding horse. Goodwood Racecourse
Draw bias: The draw bias on the straight course is sometimes hard to predict, but more often than not the far side (low numbers) is the place to be. It s generally a disadvantage to be stranded down the middle. On the round course, expecially over trips of seven furlongs to a mile, low numbers are strongly favoured. High drawn horses struggle to get an early position for the turn into the home straight and can find themselves in difficulties.

So Wednesday it is now where we look and the first race on the Weds to whet my appetite is the Gordon Stakes over 1m4f for the 3 yr olds and it looks a decent race this with the whole field looking like " almost or nearly " horses and with little market info to work on its a guessing game , if there was a class horse here it would clean up and for a £45k 1st prize im surprised at the lack of support however i digress there isnt so now we have a field where any can win so i guess its time to get the value boots on.
OBSERVATIONAL comes into this the most interesting as this could quite easily have been coming into this unbeaten as it only lost its first two races by a Head and a Neck before winning the " Cocked Hat " Stakes over 1m3f in this grade , looks on the upgrade and has a heart to back up the engine , the Fav Snow Sky got well beaten in the King Edward VII stakes and although beaten by good sorts had little behind and is readily overlooked and i will be looking to Lay this if the price is right ( anything under 3.0 ) , Cloudscape will have its supporters but was soundly thrashed by Barley Mow and Observational had that same horse tidily tucked inside his pocket when winning the cocked hat and i see no way that form gets reversed , Ayrad just looks plain disappointing and will need to have its sights lowered although racing off 96 it has limited options , Scotland runs like it wants 2m or a fence or two in front of it so it looks like Somewhat or Windshear will pose the biggest problems and either can win and certainly have the profiles to make their presence felt in what should be a decent race given the conditions.

Bet : MAX EW on Observational as this is the horse with the scope and promise of more to come and i will be pretty shocked if its not in the shake up.- Result = Unplaced , Ran a great race for all but the last 1f at that stage it was tanking and looked a bridle job only when push come to shove it found nil off the bridle and waded backwards, im disappointed but it wasnt upto the task and was beaten fair n square.

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (7)Snow SkySir Michael Stoute39-1James Doyle9/2
opened 4/1
2nd (8)nkWindshearRichard Hannon39-1R Hughes13/2
opened 15/2
3rd (6)hdSomewhat (USA)M Johnston39-1J Fanning7/2
£4000-£1000 £2000-£500 £1200-£300 £7000-£2000(x2) £3500-£1000 £2800-£800(x2) £1400-£400(x2) £3600-£1080
                                                                   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Next up is the racing highlight of the week as we hold the SUSSEX STAKES over 1m for 3 yr olds and over and race that has been Won by luminaries such as Toronado ( races again today ) the mighty FRANKEL ( Won this twice ) , Canford Cliffs  , Henrythe navigator and going back to Giants Causeway..so the heritage is there for all to see and this year we will see two mighty giants do battle as old hand , CD winner and previous race winner Toronado takes on the might that is KINGMAN a horse to which i hold a very brightly shining candle and whom i think is the best miler in Europe if not the world and imo is not far off Frankel legendary status , yes that is how highly i regard this beast...a true star in every sense of the word , a wonderful traveller with a Ferrari for an Engine and a gearbox as slick as an F1 in fact i think even the diminutive Lewis Hamilton could steer this home as this arm chair of a ride is well within his compass , Kingman , Kingman, Kingman.....i expect this to be led up by Darwin and or War Command with Outstrip tacking along leaving Toronado and Kingman just waiting in the wings and as they have a bit of fun between them i will see both of these juggernauts come swinging along with probably just Kingman left on the bridle as Toronado tries to get first run but Kingman will have this and every other move covered and as Toronado pushes on and flattens expect to see Kingman come along side inside the final furlong and stride away as majestically as anything your likely to see with Toronado thinking " fuck this ".....Kingman is one of a rare breed a horse that can quicken off an already quickened pace...it has the extra gears that set it apart from the mere mortals of the racing and equine world.....a poor price ( 4/7 ) but it is money in the bank and this will not lose ...ever...Welcome to the Hall of Fame KINGMAN.

BET : MAX WIN BET on KINGMAN......Simply the greatest miler of his generation and as good as any in recent years. - 1st @ 1.50......BoooooooooooooM and Thank You....
                                     ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Avenue Du Monde in the Maiden this day i have been reliably informed is very smart indeed and may/may not win today but is one worth watching as it works like a star at home..got the yard salivating...

Be Back on Weds Night for the Thursday update and report on 2 or 3 good looking races...Enjoy the week ;-).

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