Thursday, 21 May 2015

Not so Glorious Goodwood but its still Better than Ayr ;)

Morning All ,
Well yesterday could and should have been much better as i had both EW singles and an EW double on my two Naps with one coming 1st at 5.02 and the other unplaced but i wanted to have the unplaced runner replaced but went with my ratings instead of my head and Act your Shoe Size ran 2nd at 11/ that was a shame but still a profitable day.

So we move into Thursday and although we have another run at Ayr available  ( a course in which i usually do well due to the consistency of the winning trainers and northern yards ) we will be looking at Goodwood today to see how we fare back down south as the flotilla of big yards look to flex there collective muscles.

We start the day off with a decent looking Maiden ( previous winners include Portamento and Trumpet Major both of whom were very smart ) with a few very nice sorts on show and one with some very decent form however i will be dutching the two Hannon runners as he likes to win this which has been shown with him winning it for three years in a row leading upto 2013 and i wouldn't pay any attention to jockey bookings in this and at 4.40 & 24.0 this looks a very decent Dutch in a race where anyone of these could win with a possible safety net covering the fav ( 3.65 ).

The next is a nice looking H'cap but that isnt imo as competitive as it first appears as God Willing has only its maiden win to date ( over this trip ) and after numerous efforts over 1m in which he has been found wanting at the business end has been dropped back to this 7f trip but this is not a track that will suit and im not convinced he will have the pace required for such an event and he may be one of those tripless types time will tell but not for me.
The bottom three are generally disappointing types and can be readily over looked even those looking at rags will struggle to muster any enthusiasm,Take a Note was raised 17lb early in its career and the following year was dropped 2lb only to muster huge improvement and was raised again another 14lb making it 31lb higher over a three year stint and although consistent and pretty decent its only at a certain level and for me this is a grade or even two too much and is easily dismissed for this.
Bertiewhittle has plenty of ability and a return to the form he showed at the back end of 2013 gives him a massive chance now back on a decent mark but his last three runs have been on the AW and its turf form of late has been less than inspiring and the current 12/1 doesn't interest me at all so is left alone on the basis of low value but if i can get any 20/1 before the off i will nibble at it EW.
So we are left with 3 runners on my hot list and its from this group that i believe the winner will emerge and they are ,

1. FIFTYSHADESOFGREY ( 3.65 ) - 1st @ 11/4
2. MR WIN ( 6.0 ) - 2nd @ 11/2
3. SAUCY MINX ( 11.0 )

and the RFC paid £16.70

and the three of these make imo for a very decent dutch with a split stakes dutch paying 1.70 ( against stake , ie: £200 split between the runners will return £165-£172 on each runner ).

The third race doesnt interest me in the slightest but if i was trackside then i would probably have an ew on Sebastian Beach.

Same really for the 4th race another Hcap in which i cant seem to garner any form of an angle as its so close across the board and none can be ruled out and a speculative punt on Red Rubles would be my call but this is a no bet in reality.
The 1625 is a Listed Fillies event and i like this as the field size and make up makes for a good betting heat.
Loaves n Fishes can be forgiven its first run this term as it blew the start and is obviously considered quite useful by the yard ( take a look at the HCE Sponsored Horse Racing Directory for further details ) however the form of its maiden win has been smashed to bits and is now less than worthless so this will be left alone until it actually show something.
I think Jellicle Ball can lay claim to the LOTD at 2.36 as its done nothing to warrant that price and Buick has left it to ride Miss Giler and with plenty of potential in this field this i feel can be very confidently laid.For me the winner could be LADY OF DUBAI ( 1st @ 7/4 ) at around 3.6 which isnt great value and wont attract a bet from unless it hits 4.4 as i would want to take this on as an EW bet and possibly double , Cumani is a past master at getting these types ready fto but is another with past form that has delivered very little and it will be hoped that the form of its lto win will hold up with improvement enough to make this a decent bet but wait for value.

The 1700 is a very tricky 3 yr old Maiden and a decent sized field makes for a very tough betting heat.Ralph Beckett is the master at training Fillies and all of his require a closer inspection and this race is no different with him training the Daughter of Galileo SYRDARYA ( 3rd @ 12/1 ) and at around 20/1 this looks a very attractive EW bet.
Lead a Merry Dance looks a solid bet in the Finale.

So Bet time...

NAP : The DUTCH Bet as illustrated - BooM as we hit 1st & 2nd = Win

EW NAP: LADY OF DUBAI ( If price matched ) - 1st @ 7/4
                MISS GILER -

LONGSHOT : SYRDARYA - 3rd @ 12/1

LOTD : JELLICLE BALL - 3rd @ 15/8f

Wednesday, 20 May 2015

Another pic of this years OAKS Winner.

Legatissimo: Investec Oaks her most likley target

I advised EVERYONE and anyone that would listen to back this for the OAKS at 5/1 after the Guineas and it was more or less pinned into 9/2 and until yesterday the last remaining 9/2 was taken down by Betway with most firms offering 4/1 at best but a lot including Ladcrooks ,  Titan and Boyle only offering a piss poor 3/1.....tut tut if you never got on but the 3/1 will look a gift come the day as this is as good a filly as ive seen since the wonderful Pebbles and i will be surprised if this doesn't sweep all before her and that includes taking on the boys and giving them a spanking...LEGATISSIMO this years Superstar.

Does anything ever happen on a Wednesday ?...Lets pick one from AYR ;)

Another quiet day with the Gee Geez as is quite the norm for a non festival Weds so i have decided to look thru Ayr as my main meeting and select a single NAP an EW selection im really keen and a Longshot worthy of a second glance....

NAP : FIRST SARGENT @ 10.50 ( EW Advised ) - Unplaced ( Knew i should have gone with my 2nd top rated ~ Act Your Shoe Size which was 2nd @ 11/1 )

EW NAP: HYDRANT @ 5.70 - 1st @ 5.02

LONGSHOT: LORD BUFFHEAD / RED CAPE ( EW DUTCH ) - Red Cape was 4th @ 33.18 ( Betfair place Market pays top 4 and sometimes 5 ) and Lord Buffhead wasnt far away in 6th...couple of decent runs for your money.

CLICK HERE to get 4/1 on ARSENAL to BEAT Sunderland tonight

Tuesday, 19 May 2015

Quiet ~ so one a day to form part of your 5 A DAY..


2nd @ 5.12 ( Beaten by another from the red hot Fahey yard ) no damage done...;)

Friday, 15 May 2015

Friday and York Day 3 - Yorkshire Cup Day -

Evening All , 
                     Well that was a Thursday to forget when just about everything i touched turned to shit missed opportunities, low confidence and just a miserable run but then thats what this game is all about wonderful highs and miserable lows and you have to be able to deal with it all.
" If you cant deal with the Lows then you dont deserve the Highs " is the Punters play on the old Marilyn Monroe adage and its true so you just have to suck it up and move on...tmrw is a new day with a new dawn and anything can happen although i am quitting Laying animals for the time being and im just going to focus on making a profit as i have been hitting too many winners and this i feel has affected my mind set so best leave the lays for a bit.
Day 3 of the cracking Spring York Festival and it looks another humdinger and again its Fahey / O'Meara & Ryan ruling the show overall and these guys have to be followed when hot at these meetings especially O'Meara he could train any donkey to win a Derby right now.

So what have we on offer ,

Well RACE 1 sees us start the day with the 2 yr old 5f sprint the MARYGATE fillies Stakes ( Listed ) and this has been won at an average sp of 9/2 with the last 3 winners coming in at 5/1 , 7/4 and 20/1 so that alone tells you its an open affair.
White Bullet ( 3rd @ 11/1 ) is interesting from the Ryan yard and although 15/1 now if come say 1pm tmrw this has attracted decent support i would say follow as they usually run very well when supported.
......No time to finish this lol as im off to play Golf...Maybe back tmrw...who knows...Its the Weekend ;-)...
But heres a quick splash of runners to note :....

                       EMERHLDZ ( NON RUNNER )

ROMSDAL  4TH @ 5/2                                                 SPERRY 1st @ 7/2
                                             JUNCART - Unplaced @ 10/3
           DUSKY QUEEN 1st @ 7/2
                                                                                        ROSENBAUM 5th @ 11/4

Good Luck and Enjoy your day whatever your doing!!..

Thursday, 14 May 2015

York DAY 2 and its DANTE Day.

Afternoon everyone ,
                               Well yesterday went so so...some decent priced placed runners but nothing amazing and come out even on the day so no damage done and if you have a bad day and come out evens i will take that as a win.
Well what does day 2 have in store for us ? well firstly Fahey is still in very good form with all his runners performing with credit  ( winners at Newcastle yesterday ) and O'Meara ...well what can we say but York is fast becoming his own back yard with everything he sends out winning or looking like it can and the Conditionals he uses seem very good as well so anything out of his on day 2 must be respected.
The DANTE is todays big race and this will be a thriller for me as i have very high hopes for ELM PARK and will be ..well not far off distraught if this fails to shine as i had this earmarked for big things since the middle of last season the ground may not be 100% right and he may not be 100% fit but none the less im still expecting a run that he can work from.


RACE 1 :
We start the day off with a crazy looking 17 runner 5f Sprint Hcap and if you combine all those letters together it spells " NIGHTMARE "....OH MY DAYS...Ricky , Paula ...ERIC...i need help with this one lol..its a ball buster.
OUT DO has to go on the short list as its a lto winner from the prolific D O'Meara yard however in 25 runs its only ever attempted 5f once and it got burnt alive finishing 9/20 so has a big question mark to answer and although i cant discount it i cant back it either.
JUDGE N JURY has loads of ability and win when he wants the problem is you just never know when he wants it ;-/// , so a bet on this is a solid shout but its a case of hit n hope.
SEE THE SUN is another with ability a plenty but an attitude of disgust and cant be trusted so im gonna take a look at PERFECT PASTURE from Mick Easterby's yard as i find it v interesting that he has Moore booked for the ride so something decent must be expected but this is speculation and its a speculative choice in a race with so many variables and disappointing types its not entirely inconceivable that Tangerine Trees could roll back the years its just one of those races.

RACE 2 :
Next up its the 1m2f Middleton Stakes and this for me will be used solely as a stepping stone into true group class for the very classy BRAGGING a horse very much on the up and the way it won the Dahlia Stakes lto shows us that this is a beast full of class and is one that stays and has a huge heart, In the aforementioned Dahlia Stakes if watched you could have been nothing but impressed in what wasnt a flashy race until the final strides as this was a 9f race run at full throttle with the first 5f covered in a very quick 1m flat ( 1m00s ) a time that many an actual sprinter would be proud of and yet they still carried on although 2f out the field were at it pulling n pushing and it was only ever going to be a case of guts and staying power and keeping that momentum up and Kleo surged from the front but was quickly picked up by Bragging as they come into the final 1f with 4 or 5 in a bunch but within 50 yards it was just Bragging in the lead and Kleo with the rest now faltering and within the final 50 yards Bragging finally started to assert and was actually pulling clear as they crossed the line with Bragging around 2L to the good so in the context of this race it can only be marked up and this is a horse going to the top.
That said she will have to be pin sharp to fend off the likes of Ribbons who is also a horse on the improve and has been racing of late at the top table and has a few more medals to show and is in a form context the one to beat.
Belle D'or is held and the remainder bar two are just not good enough and the two left are Secret Gesture ( one time Oaks Fav ) and Madam Chiang and both of these could be getting better with age and both will play there part in what should be a thrilling race.

RACE 3 : 
The DANTE Stakes..The days big race and with 8 runners all with some quality this promises to be a doozy.
This has been won by some great horses in the past and every year sees plenty of future winners hit so whatever happens the runners in this need watching for potential wins.
The first one i must mention is a fav of mine ELM PARK ( Win ) who if as good as i believe will be winning this years Derby as he very much reminds me of another past Derby winner called REFERENCE POINT as both have almost identical racing styles and look similar and have the same build and tempo so if he is nearly as good as the Point then its game on.
I cant however leave out the Barry Hills trained NAFAQA ( EW ) as i have been told by a very good source that the yard thinks this is going to win today and as it entered into the Derby , the King George and the Eclipse they must have high hopes for this and im not surprised by a lack of early race pace in its defeats to date as most progeny by Sir Percy take a while to get the motor warmed up and most are all stayers through n through and at 18/1 im going to have a big dutch ( level stakes ) on these two.

RACE 4 : 
Next race is a 18 runner 1m o my..good luck with this one!!!
I can only presume that Fort Bastion is the Fav based on the riding/training credentials as York specialists Tudders/O'Meara are involved but from a form perspective way.
3 i like are HOMAGE , MERRY ME & YOUR FIRED in what looks to be a very competitive field.
My own horse runs in this  ( 25% share ) Balducci but i have been told a few things that would leave me to think it needs more than luck to win today but could run into a place and with top 4 or even 5 ( Betfair among others ) and at around 8/1 fap i think i may just have a few squids on this and cross my fingers ( shame i cant make York today ).
From the Sniper : 
Just one joint favourite has won this in nine years though the winner is generally well supported. Homage and Alfred Hutchinson are the only course and distance winners in the line-up and the former makes his comeback after winning a tough handicap from 5lb lower here in October. Off Art ran a fine race in the Thirsk Hunt Cup, his first start since the same race last year, so he has to be considered along with Abseil, who lost his way a little after looking potentially useful at this time a year ago. Gabrial had stablemate Loving Spirit behind at Leicester in October but the latter made an encouraging comeback in the Spring Cup at Newbury and could turn the tables. There are plenty of others with chances but the vote goes to the veteran PRINCE OF JOHANNE, who hasn't won for almost two years but ran well last season and has now dropped to his lowest mark since landing the 2011 Cambridgeshire.

RACE 5 : 
Now we have the WESTOW Stakes a race over 5f for 3 yr olds and with just the 10 runners this could prove to be a good race for a bet being an optimum size.
ZUHOOR BAYNOONA is from the list of runners i am following from the Fahey yard and this has already won this term when it won fto @ 7/1 so we are nicely in front with this one already however neither myself nor Fahey think this is it as we both expect much better things from this very fast Filly.
Big Powerful and with a long stride and gait this is easily upto Group Class and an easy win in a fast time at quirky Bath would support this and at 11/1 i am all over this EW as i think its a cracking bet in fact im making it my EW NAP.
Tendu , Blue Aegean and Strath Burn promise to make this a very interesting a quickly run race.

RACE 6 : 
Maiden time and a typically well contested one for York that is packed with blue blood.
I like ANOTHER TOUCH which was a reasonably expensive purchase for the Fahey stable at £80k and is well forward in his work, i also like ZEBADIAH who is related to a raft of winning sprinters and is sure to know his job and finally BLUE HUMOUR from a yard that likes to ready a good winner at York.

RACE 7 : 
Finally we round the day off with a 15 runner 2m Handicap which in truth is not a bad way to round a card off.
COUSIN KHEE will get some action from me because i always back Crowley in the final race of the day or lose..up or down..he always gets some.
But from a more professional stand point i like the look of MAWAQEET from the stable that won this last year a horse that looks to have been trained with this as his sole target for the year and has been carefully laid out and at a fantastic 40/1 i simply have to have a nibble or two EW of course lol.
Moscato is easily the form choice and arrives on the back of an easy win over this 2m trip but at Ascot lto for which there is no Penalty carried as that was an Apprentice an easy winner with no penalty over 2m and trained by master campaigner Prescott...Hmmm well i suppose i should have enough cover on it to hold my stakes in place.

Good Luck everyone on what looks a tough days racing.

Wednesday, 13 May 2015

York in May and its Musidora Day ;)

Good Morning World ,
                                    Its a beautiful day outside here at the Knavesmire ( York ) with what i would describe as perfect racing ground , the sun is shining and im back in the Arms of my beautiful Tuesday
;-) , so all is right in the world.
Got my eye in so to speak yesterday and went thru the Bev card and had a couple of nice bets and hit 3 Winners from 8 races @ 7.17 , 9.0 and 9.48 for a nice profit on the day so im feeling good going into the first day of the York Meeting which holds the Musidora as its principal race and this is a track i just love.
Quirky in some respects as it runs well for a good front runner or one that can sit handy and quicken as its a tough track to come off the pace from and on good or firmer this task becomes even tougher its also a track in which the Northern yards like to do well and often field their more fancied runners and Fahey is a master round here which is double dangerous as he is in red hot form just now but also watch those from the likes of Barron and Easterby plus its also a course where the term or phrase " Horses for Courses " is very apt as many previous CD winners have arrived here woefully out of form and then scooted up so watch out for the perennial York horses.

So lets crack on with York and see what damage we can do.


RACE 1 :
We start the day off with a ridic looking 20 runner Hcap over 1m2f and these tough Hcaps have become a staple in the York diet.This race is also rather surprisingly quite often won by something quite well supported in the market and nothing in the last ten years has won over 8/1 with an average of around 9/2 so i would suggest you just take a look at the top 6 and work down.
CHANCERY has to be high on my list from the to be feared O'Meara Yard and with Tudders doing the steering this CD winner who opened up his campaign this term with a resounding victory on unsuitable ground at Ripon will have everything going for it and at 14/1( expect this to go off a bit shorter ) looks an outstanding EW bet to start the day.
Elsewhere and for PP reasons i think we should also have Tres Coronas as this has a lot of the boxes ticked and arrives with a bit of form entitling him to run a place and i will also keep the faith one last time with Satellite a horse that has won well for me before and was thought group class before faltering over distance that were too far and dont be surprised if we get big runs from Spirit of the Law and Silvery Moon.

RESULT : The 11/4F Wins and im out of the PP after just one race lol...lets hope the day improves!!
RACE 2 : 
Next up is another gargantuan Hcap this time with 17 runners and over 6f so this could end up messy as they could start charging all over like a field full of Fentons.
It is today with heavy heart and great regret that i will finally release my betting grip that i have firmly held upon Hoof It a horse i once thought was going to rule the sprinting world but has continually disappointed after winning the Sky Bet Dash and the Goodwood Stewards Cup this has done just about fuck all and its runs after would lead you to think it was done for and having shown nothing since this is now released into the betting wilderness...along with Valbcheck.
BOGART however comes into this also with some recent form having run a solid 3rd fto this term behind Pipers Note in a 17 runner Bev Hcap however at this moment its hard to see how Bogart can reverse this form as Pipers Note has shown a remarkable consistency and looks 100% genuine so i will have to assume Bogart needed that run and with 5lb of fitness improvement can swing it back his way.
Arctic Feeling , Tatlisu and Mass Rally will all be there at the business end and any with some luck in running could make a play for the winning line but i couldnt back them as they just dont appeal to me and this is more of a heart n gut appraisal rather than a studious professional outlook.
I really like Another Wise Kid but just like at Ripon lto this poor beast has another demon draw and he will struggle from here as i think anything drawn lower than 10 will need to be special to win...
..jeez im running out of options so quick i may have to do some back tracking.
Right my three in no particular order are ,

2. BOY IN THE BAR - 2nd @ 12.60

Tough Tough race ...Good Luck.

RACE 3 :
Now we have a Group 2 Sprint the " Clipper Logistics " and this is usually a damn decent race and this years event doesnt look likely to disappoint with some very high class runners involved.
MATTMU ( 2nd @ 17.9 ) may have been let in very lightly by the handicapper having shown hugely progressive form last term and imo still has quite a bit of scope for further and coming from the Easterby stable i would assume this is here to run a big race today and at 25/1 is well worth a second look for the Value Hunters.
MUTHMIR is probably the "class" in the race and will take the beating if ready to do himself justice this is a horse i like very much and is already in my book a solid Group 1  / Class 1 sprinter and will be at the table for all the years big sprints and i think this is just in front of Naddir who is also a very smart sprinter and both of these like to make a play for the victory just as they come into the final 1f and the one thing i would dearly love to have right now is the sectionals from their last three races to compare there final 1f times as i feel this could prove if anyone out there has these..send em over.
There are 4 or possibly 5 other real quality sprinters that could also take a hand in the finish including , Musical Comedy , Aetna , Astaire , Justice Day and Jack Dexter ( 3rd @ 23.2 )so nothing can readily be discounted in what should be a fascinating race.

RESULT : 95.6 Crowley ridden winner...LOL...nuff said.
RACE 4 : 
The days BIG race the MUSIDORA Stakes its a Group 3 ( C1 ) over 1m2f and is for Fillies only and is usually Won by one of the more fancied runners and has proven historically to be kind to Favs.
It has to be said that for a £100k race the turnout of 5 is woeful and does nothing for the good name of racing and to add further caste to this this is imo basically a 2 horse race as i can only see either STAR OF SEVILLE  or  TOGETHER FOREVER winning.
Star of Seville is the Fav and is race fit and a proven distance winner however Together Forever is for me the Winner here as she comes into this with much the better overall form inc a win in the Fillies Mile and being by Galileo i see no way that she doesnt stay the trip ( has been running on strong at the back end of her races to date ) and i think that not only does she have at least 10lb in hand on my current adjusted ratings but will almost certainly race into a low to mid 120 rated runner and will prove too good. ( i have smashed this dutch as its a win/break even dutch with all the winnings on TF and SOS given me a few pence,has to be done its a wallet emptying bet as i can see no other outcome )

RESULT : Star of Seville beats Together Forever by a head and i make an amazing £3.82 Profit ..damn it lol..
And thats it for today as i have run out of time...hopefully be back for a full card tmrw...Good Luck All.


Copy Halt