Sunday, 26 July 2015

Im Still Alive lol..

Hi Guys n Gals ,
                      Been a few days or so since any real update and this has been solely down to having no time to really put down all my thoughts in fact ive bet hardly anything just lately as my time has been spent elsewhere and ive been making a living " old skool " by actually working for a living and pulling a wage from it...i know SHOCK HORROR lol...ive been getting paid to do work watching and race reviewing and its been fun and ive been booked for another two weeks of horse related work so time will again be at a premium so i have decided to take a very early look thru the Tuesday card at Goodwood as this is one of my Favourite weeks of the year GLORIOUS GOODWOOD and im hoping to see some classic races again this year.


We start off with a Traditionally tough looking Hcap and all thoughts and considerations will be made and excepted as though the ground is riding Good only any deviations will mean you will have to except the outcome or re-assess.
As they are in such fine form still and they also won this race last year i am going to advise a 3 way  ( any form ) dutch on the three MJ runners , we have them in form with CD history and will all be ready to rumble and as all three are in very healthy double figures this looks a decent bet albeit for fun only but a bigger bet wouldnt be considered a bad thing.

Sniper - No Bet

Longbow - 3 way dutch - 3rd @ 14/1

FreeFORM - Master the World - 

Race 2 looks a beauty and has been until last year a R Hannon benefit race as he has saddled a 2nd and 4 Winners in the last 5 years so its a race he obviously has well within his scope however Tupi which was 2nd last year wasnt all that and not at the same level as the winner he saddled from the previous 2 years which were Olympic Glory and Toormore and this years Paliwan is another that just doesnt look strong enough but is entitled to improve but not more than any of the others.
4th in the Chesham then won n Egg n Spoon maiden before getting easily brushed aside in a higher grade event over 7f and this form is imo simply not good enough and already is trailing a few others by almost 20lbs....so i simply do not see how this can win or even get close!!.
Birchwood and Air Vice Marshall will probably ( and rightly so ) dominate the betting but i think both these rival renewing runners can be opposed and with the market in our favour i think we can tank a dutch against them.
The two obvious improvers i like are GALILEO GOLD and WELFORD both of whom have a bit to find but both look strong with a stayers pedigree and i think if we do get some rain then it will improve their chances considerably and i think we should sneak double figures on both again making this a competitive bet.

Sniper - Twin Sails - 

Longbow - GALILEO GOLD and WELFORD - 1st @ 6.2

FreeFORM - Birchwood - 

Race 3 is the £200k Lennox Stakes and looks a doozy for so many reasons...Horses looking to reestablish reps , trying new trips and so many coming into this with tons of past form...this looks a cracker!!.
TUPI will come into the reckoning as he come 2nd in the Vintage Stakes on this card last year and this looks the right level for him to be competitive and has to be included along with outright form choice which is DUTCH CONNECTION who will win if he can replicate the brilliant lto run when just touched off by the brilliant Territories over in France and any further improvement sees him clear as i have down at around the 119-121 mark so i think that he is clear on my ratings and is still improving plus its should be a very competitive price.
Finally we should also consider LIMATO who has shown to be a group class sprinter but staying on so strongly to suggest the step up in trip should be no problem but that is not always a given but should he stay and stay well then he could be a very exciting recruit to a specialist trip.
Toormore is frustrating and untrustworthy but not without some class and ability , Glory Awaits always promises more than it delivers , Safety Check has to prove its as good on the turf as it is on the AW and the remainder are as good as their marks and will just run honest races so i think one of the surprise packages will indeed take this but which one?....My heart tells me Limato but my head says Dutch Connection so whatever the outcome this should be a fascinating race.

Sniper - Dutch Connection -   

Longbow - Dutch Connection / Tupi -  2nd @ 3.7

FreeFORM - Dutch Connection - 

Race 4 is a 1m6f Hcap and its a time to break the bar and chill out as this is a non event for me but i do know that FORGOTTEN VOICE has been training well and is fit as a flea as this has been his flat season target all year and this will get a decent EW lump off me.

Longbow - Forgotten Voice - 2nd @ 29.0

Race 5 is a crazy tough 5f Hcap and its the type of race in which the Dickster should lend me his magic pin because in truth there are a million options in this race.

Sniper - Double Up -   2nd @ 3.6

Longbow - Top Boy / Ridge Ranger  3rd @ 7.6 / 1st @ 21.80

FreeFORM - Double Up - 

Race 5 is a standard Goodwood Maiden and for obvious reason it must be assumed that the Goodwood Racing Club would love to see their Goodwood Zodiac win here and it does arrive with enough form to give it a solid chance.

Sniper - Papa Luigi -  2nd @ 6.44

Longbow - Goodwood Zodiac -   

FreeFORM - Sir Roger Moore - 

The Finale is a horrible getting out stakes and STRONG STEPS is a speculative punt to round off a tough looking day.

Longbow - Strong Steps - 3rd @ 6.88

Thats it now just another day till we watch Gleneagles win the Sussex Stakes beating Solow ;-).

Thursday, 16 July 2015

Could be an interesting Thursday...

Hi Yall ,
             Well yesterday was as poor as i thought although my 2nd n 3rd rated Longbow won but without any bets from me as a few decent priced rags won but it was a slow day for me from 8 races with selections we only hit 2 winners ( 7/2 & Even's ) so a smallish 3.5 Point Loss on level stakes but the NAP was a winner which got me ahead for the day after i doubled through on that after losing a couple of mid afternoon bets i shouldnt have been involved with so it wasnt all doom n gloom and todays fayre isnt much stronger but we do have Hamilton to look at and the Goldie/Dalgleish roadshow will continue i hope and im hopeful Berry has one or two here as its his favoured course and although he does have a woeful SR he can hit a big priced winner and if its going to be anywhere then Hamilton is that place whilst we also Have our very good friend Marc Shukman's horse Avon Scent running over at Chepstow and i will run a rueful eye over that and a few of the others we that being my main meeting of focus today as they will be heading down.

So lets start the day with a Glance thru CHEPSTOW ,

A nice 10 runner Hcap to start the day with the 10 runners and a ton of weight splitting them but all the form on offer is much of a muchness so the bottom weights could sneak the monies here.
Hit the Heights arrives as the only runner with any relevant recent form but i will be buggered if im taking 3.50 about any runner in a race such as this and thats not to say its a lay as it isnt its just no value as a punt.
This is the type of race in which Harris could easily supply the winner and his DIAMOND VINE is probably worth sticking in the selection box as cover but realistically i think TOP COP is the one to be on at around 7/1 as its a solid option against the Fav and should be good enough to at least get a place with Spray Tan the only other likely to get heavily involved but i dont think the 8/1 is a great price but if it drifts to around 12/1 or better then i would consider it an option, this is a poor race and the Fav has this to only lose and you could make an argument in for not dutching the fav but getting enough on to cover your stakes on the rags. - TOP COP 2nd @ 5/1 ( 5/2F Wins and i had the Tri-Fecta at 53/1 but failed to back..again )

RESULT : 

A poor maiden next and i would say a " fun " ew on the Evans Runner DIGI ( 33/1 ) but for me its a no bet race and i think Shukkers should stay at the bar ;).- 4th @ 23.66 ( Only just beaten in the last 50 yards and only then by a Neck )

12 Runner Hcap now and this is much better for the punter.
Back in the day the duo ( both Harris ) Light From Mars and Secret Witness would have carried these home as both were solid 100 rated sprinters and they could contest all the years big events but age has taken its toll along with racing in general and as such their own form is now far removed of which it was but they can still produce a run of ability every now n then in the lower grades but at around 8/1 each they dont offer anything as a punting medium as i would need double that to take the risk but dont be surprised if they hose up.
I think ANGEL WINGS is worth keeping onside as this improver has a ton of ton relative to the field and although beaten 5L lto that was against far superior opposition than this and really should be getting involved the 7/1 is an ok price but i want 8/1 then it becomes a decent ew punt, Vincetti is also worth noting forget its last run and then this is right in the mix but you will need 20/1 to have it as a bet in a tough race which also features a couple of Bradley runners so for me personally the bet here is a 5 way dutch on the rags ( 2-3-5-6-11 ) with a money back cover on Angel Wings.


Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (1)Midnight Rider (IRE)B R Millman79-8Oisin Murphy8/1
Held up in touch, headway over 2f out, soon chasing leaders, ridden to lead inside final furlong, flashed tail well inside final furlong, held on
2nd (4)nkCool Bahamian (IRE)Eve Johnson Houghton49-12 v1J P Fahy3/1f
Slowly away, behind, good headway near side over 1f out, strong run inside final furlong, 2nd well inside final furlong, ran on, just held
3rd (7)¾Light From MarsR Harris109-7 pMikey Ennis (5)7/1
Chased leaders, ridden and kept on same pace inside final furlong, went 3rd final strides
4th (8)hd13 Bonjour SteveR J Price48-9 pTom Marquand (5)4/1
Chased leader, challenged 2f out, led briefly 1f out, chased winner until well inside final furlong, lost 3rd final strides
5th (11)Angels Wings (IRE)C Hills39-4S J Drowne8/1
Slight lead, ridden and headed 1f out, weakened well inside final furlong

RESULT : Nos 3 Midnight Rider Wins for us and its a BooM ;-)
( Level Stakes Dutch and 6 was a Non Runner )

Another shockingly poor Hcap to get involved with , perfect in size and content but the quality on offer is dire.
Knight of the Air looks a solid bet in this at 5/1 a well fancied fav lto that got caught up in a muddle of a race and one that is best forgotten can easily get involved on the form of the two races prior.
Gypsy Rider is the only other viable alternate in what is a race of the poorest quality and not even the Longbow can find a decent rag to punt on and i can only hope that Div 2 of this race carries more.... Well this is the race in which Marc's AVON SCENT runs and golly its a damn awful race in truth!!..i would dearly love to see this win but on the basis of what its actually shown on the track so far i cannot say that it has endeared itself to me in any way and can offer nothing but hope and i dont even think the 33/1 is of any value..yes that poor indeed...However it has been discussed and trivialized before and we have mused over reasoning's , hood , visor, trip , ground, tactics and in truth for a lot of most of its races it has run with pace and enthusiasm however when push comes to shove it finds or does little now this could be more than lack of ability as i do think it has some however its application of such is the focus here as it could be a case of her simply not enjoying her racing , she may get bored and as silly as it may seem some just get excited by he day out go for a 3f sprint and then think..." thats it now..hay time "...and simply dont bother and that could be such a factor here so its fingers crossed and good luck but from a punting view i like the look of THE REEL WAY at around 8/1 who has genuine excuses for not competing stronger in the last couple and a modest affair such as this looks within her scope but again personally i wont in on the single instead im going to have an EW Double with Knight of Air from the previous race and hope they both place at least for a nice profit ( and a couple of squids on Avon....Just in case ). -  Avon ran a much better race in 5th but still well beaten and i dont see this ever winning now in truth and all i can do is wish them well , The Reel Way was bastard 4th and as Knight of Air was 3rd thats me EW double on the Kyboshed..fecking 4th..again..sigh but only for nibbles and fucking dicky will be wooping as the sheistyer would have backed the Harris runner to win this as he mentioned it on our Facebook page and it won at 14/1!!!...deary me...

RESULT : 

The remaining 3 races are not on my radar and are left alone...so thats Chepstow dusted off and all i can say is Good Luck Marc/Debbie X.

Do we have anything at Hamilton to whet our appetite today ?....
The first race is a Maiden and as we know its not my thing however QUIET REFLECTION is a horse that interests me as i fancied this the other day but it got pulled out due to the ground and this Lowther Entrant could be different gravy from a yard that knows the time of day with their Juveniles and this rates a strong win bet.- 1st @ 2/1 ( Won by an easy 5L )

Alan Berry has Electric Qatar in the next and at 20/1 its having some ( although im not sure in what format yet ) , he also has Partners Gold in the next and that is also 66/1 so a small fap at least is worth including. - 2nd @ 15.50 ( Beaten a S.H )

POLARISATION looks nailed on in the next but its impossible to predict exactly what any MJ horse will do. - 1st @ 4/5

Moonlight Venture and Indian Chief should scrap out the finish in the next whilst it would be a shock if Glad Tidings got rumbled ( 1st @ 3/10 ) and JAY KAY pissed up lto and the Hat Trick looks a cert on form but i will also have a fun nibble on the berry runner and may stick a sheckle on the rfc as its an astonishing 100/1 lol..but Jay Kay has this to lose only.- 1st @ 5/6

Well thats another poor days racing covered with no real Longbow bets to look upon , some shorties for quick Cash and some bonkers bets for fun EW acca's but no real serious bets today.

RESULTS :

Wednesday, 15 July 2015

Today is the Day of Wed Nez

                                               

Morning World ,
        Well yesterday went past pretty much as expected drawing a blankety blank and i didnt even get a fucking cheque book n pen..how gutted am i ;-)..

So today we have three meeting to peruse , two thru the day and Sandown this evening although im hoping i can make my profit before the evening racing starts as it becomes a long day but as my shoulder is still a bit fucked i cant play golf or anything else so i guess it may be a bit more decorating for me as i want the house to be looking spic n span before my little egg is hatched ;-) ( Dec 1st ).
So Today its Lingfield and Catterick up first and i think a browse thru Lingfield is where we shall start.

LINGFIELD

The meeting starts with a Maiden and a Fillies maiden at that and this as you know is usually a no go for me unless i either have some solid info or something at a price catches my eye ( had a nice 48.0 winner in a maiden last week so guess my PnL will be plus lol ) and there is one in this race i like but for pretty much one reason alone.
We have quite a few coming into this with a variety of form levels but my selection is unraced however it is trained by probably the best handler of fillies in the country...bar  none..and that man is Ralph Beckett and his horse is CROWNING GLORY a filly by Speightstown out of a mare that is a very close relation to Storm Cat so it looks a very American pedigree but with the ground currently riding good to firm i would say this is a big positive why his runners are oft overlooked i still cannot figure as he is a quality trainer and this is 16/1 and may go higher as more comes in for the jollies and is a decent looking EW punt , if you fancied an EW dutch of Fap dutch then i would suggest another unraced sort in JUMEERAH  which is 20/1 and from the Tate yard and they do quite well and he is another trainer not short of skills and is worth following as he oft gets some very well bred sorts sent from his arab backers. - RESULT : Neither did anything but both shaped with promise although that doesnt help our bet today we can claim it back in the foootore ;)

The next race is Div of the Maiden above and it holds no interest for me so we shall move onto Race 3 Which is a tidy little 8 Runner Hcap and it just falls within my scope but this is a mighty poor race with only two having any worthwhile form and they top the betting at 3.15 & 3.90 and neither inspire much confidence so im going to have an EW on MANDRIA in the hope the 251 day break has let her grow a bit and strengthen up and we hopefully see some improvement as she was only beaten 3L lto and if she can find just 6-8lb then she will get placed or win and that is imo well within its scope but i wont take anything less than 10/1 for this and nor should you. RESULT : NO BET for me here which was just as well as Mandria was unplaced @ 6/1 as the front two were 1st n 2nd as expected on the form n market share.

Race 4 is just a massive PPL race so im steering clear but Race 5 is another 8 runner Hcap and in truth i think Cashel Man will hose up in this and the 2.16 is probably a decent punt and Sniper may well be all over it but its not for me and i like to try and take the Favs on and i going to go with a runner that even placing gets me a better return than the winner and i think FITZWILLY who at around 16/1 ( would be nice if i can get 20's ) is worth rowing in with a 4 time winner over this trip with 3 of those on the level and still well weighted ( in fact 5lb lower than its last win at Goodwood ) and this will be staying on when others have cried foul may not have the class to beat Cashel Man but can stay on for a place and the 3.0+ Fap is a better bet than the 2.16 for the win on the Fav and that will be my bet ( 25%/75% ).

An all age maiden next and i dont like this although Irish Hawke did peak a small of interest in me but Race 7 is up and its game on with a nice 10 runner Hcap with the top two in the betting looking head n shoulders above these although that isnt saying much as this lot are decidedly modest at best and i do think the pro bet here is a Fap Dutch on Cahar Fad / Zebead but its not a longbow type bet and i cannot find anything to take the top on with so theres a good argument for Win Dutching those and as much as i like to have a go in these ( all 8-14 runner Hcaps are my niche zone ) i simply cant in this..so either do the win dutch or the pro bet.

The Finale on a long day at Lingers is a nice Hcap and hopefully a nice way to round the day off.Over a stone difference splits top to bottom yet virtually nothing separates them on form with most of these yet to show anything to note and this could conceivably be a bunched finish such is the make up of this race.JUST BECAUSE is a bit of a headcase in truth and will have to settle and behave but if he can then this has every chance of making the frame or better on the balance of its last four runs and is 1lb than its last win just wins ago as that was on the AW at Chelmsford so i think the Fox needs to keep a clear head get a clear line thru and run on at the finish and he could get some money banked and hopefully the two likeliest winners Chella Thriller and Whosethedaddy will cut each others throats up front.

That wraps up Lingfield so lets take a peek a boo at Catterick.

CATTERICK
This is another meeting that opens up with a Fillies maiden ( this is when they come strong ) and the one i did like Quiet Reflection has just been withdrawn at 1150 so we shall leave alone although i would like to see Quinn's horse run well as i like to see the smaller stables get some tasty runners.
The next 3 races are all bypassed so we move swiftly onto Race 5 and its a 9 runner Hcap.Very little to separate these either in weight or performance and ability so it will be worth looking at the better priced runners here and WINDFORPOWER has to be involved at 20/1 and cant be left out and i think the Waggot 1st string SOLAR SPIRIT is also worth including in any EW dutch or fap double as this arrives in decent nick and will be in the mix for most as the weights are favorable.

The final two races offer me nothing so that is a wrap on a poor days racing at the Garrison with only a Fap Dutch to recommend, whilst at SANDOWN this evening i like the look of the win double with
1. MAN OF HARLECH
&
2. MYTHICAL MOMENT
but the prices wont be great but as a double its a decent enough effort for a quiet evening , good luck play nice have fun , ttfn x.

Tuesday, 14 July 2015

EW Trixie at Beverley..

Morning Race Fans ,
                                 Well from the four mentioned selections yesterday we had an unplaced , a 3rd @ 9/2 , a 2nd @ 5/2 and a 1st @ 3/1 for a level Stakes ( EW ) 1 Point Profit yesterday so not a total disaster and if you can still turn a profit on a bad day then its a great day on the punt ;).

Today sees us with a typical amount of nothingness for a Tuesday and i will be looking at the 3 Longbow races to see if i can produce a Trixie to keep you ticking over.

Beverley

15:25:
This is just woeful , gobsmackingly shite ( please feel free to add further adjectives ) and doesnt deserve a place on any racing calendar...however it is so lets deal with it.
A 5f sprint with form let alone wins very very thin on the ground so i think COMPARABLE who is the only runner to gain a win this year which was also over this CD who is 10/1 is a stand out bet for this.His last three runs have all been over this CD and also here at Beverley so its home territory and it was only the latter run which really disappointed with the other two being the win and a close up 5th in a bunch finish so i will presume a run of similar ilk may well be good enough.

1705: 
This is a Hcap just shy of 1m and has a healthy field of 12 with almost a stone difference in the weights yet the form is comparable across the board with all runners so it may pay to look towards the bottom of the hcap in this.
Well i do quite like the form data on the Fav Hucolt in this but i will still take it on as its his Juvenile form giving his ratings a boost and on latter day figures there is very little to separate these so i will have an EW Dutch on MAKE ON MADAM & RELIGHT MY FIRE , the former is upped in grade after a tidy win over CD lto but produced figures good enough to get her in the mix and latter has had just the three runs this season but all have been over CD with a win and a run in 5th which should / could have been better had she decided not to hang and become awkward towards the finish so if she settles better than expect a stronger showing but much is to be taken on trust with these against a solid looking fav but at around 12/1 each this is a bet i feel you should at least break even on and with some luck may produce a nice profit.

17:35:
1m2f Hcap now and another tidy sized field but those at the base of the hcap look woeful and i would suggest sticking to the top half.
STORMIN TOM @ 5/1 looks a good solid bet in this raised only 4lbs after beating a couple of these last day over CD this won comfortably and looks good for a few pound more.

So there ya go , not a lot to aim at but enough to while away the afternoon , i would probably say Relight my Fire for the purpose of the Trixie and at decent enough odds just getting two placed is money back so fingers crossed for a smidgen of luck today ( i think a Patent may be a better bet today or if you can a Round Robin )

Monday, 13 July 2015

Ayr on Monday

Well folks that was an exciting weekend of racing with some fab results with the highlight for me nabbing a 48.0 Winner ( on Betfair as the actual Industry SP was only 20/1...so a massive difference between the two and this highlights the case for betting Betfair with the better priced runners ) along with many others and a host of big priced placed runners which make for big profits when included into Acca,s and im very happy with the way its going and im hoping to nab one or two today and to see what Dalgleish and Goldie have running as they are the Ayr specialists.

Tough start at Ayr with a hot and tricky looking Maiden which looks a good spot for STYLISH BOY to open his account after being pulled from a hotter race on Saturday to take his chance here.
But maidens are not really my thing so will wont dwell on that too much and move on.

Tough small field Hcap next and its a Dalgleish / Goldie dutch....simples, and the same comment applies to race 3.

Just a Goldie dutch for race 4 and a Dalgleish dutch for race 5 with race 6 being a Goldie dutch and you may as well follow the trend for the finale....well that was a simple breakdown for AYR ;-))...

Elsewhere i think and EW Double with

Wolv 1940 - SCUISTREE
&
Wolv 2110 - LYRICAL

Is a pretty decent bet but not really a Longbow bet just a plain ol decent form bet and you could include Swordbearer in the 1545 Weth for an EW Trixie...thoughts...Because thats it from me today..enjoy or Snooze ( because you wont miss much )....;)

                                      

Saturday, 11 July 2015

Sizzling Satdee

Morning All ,
                     And its a Blockbuster Sat we have with 4 prime plus meetings at Chester , Newmarket, York and Ascot and a lot to work through.
Yesterday went as expected with a decent win on Hcap blot Bareesh @ 5/1 and a cover all bets Lay on Mustadeem @ 11/4f so not much to grumble about but i would like to hit a couple of decent winners today as Sniper has taken the weekend off as he does but he is preparing a card only i dont for where so lets take a look and see what crops up.

York has a run on some bonkers looking Hcaps which you may think is ideal for senor Longbow but it in fact makes it even harder as my ideal field size is 10-14 and in truth i do a lot better profit wise on the midweek gaff tracks than these fancy meetings but thats where Sniper comes in as he is the opposite.
So i will take a look through York to start the day off and work my way thru with a summary at the end of it all.
YORK
RACE 1:
Another insane Hcap but one in which i fancy a few so i will nominate 3 to follow ,
1. YOUR FIRED @ 14/1 - 3rd
Consistent performer at this level and beyond and easily capable of taking a hand if hes in the mood.
2. MUSADDAS @ 7.60 - 2nd
Obvious selection to many as the run to beat Jacob Black looks rock solid now and has an obvious leading chance more so given how poor or inconsistent most of these are and this still has a few pound more in the locker.
3. DREAM SPIRIT @ 20/1
This is from the Haggas yard that likes a winner or two here at York and this very lightly raced type could easily have been primed for this having shown some smart form last term and then to make a belated seasonal reappearance in the Victoria Cup where he did nothing racing on the wrong side this could and should be cherry ripe now and a much better run should be expected.
RESULT / NOTES : A good race for us with our EW Dutch hitting both 2nd & 3rd so a nice profit to start.

RACE 2:
ASTRONEUS will take some beating in this if staying the trip and there is every reason to think he will as he has been very strong in his races over 1m4f and running on/staying on at the end and is one that is on the upgrade and with form in the book equal to anything else on offer this will have a big say in the outcome, leading player and the one to beat.
Of the bigger priced runners i think WAKEA could run well and is worth including as an EW bet @ 20/1 with more to come this could provide a shock.
RESULT / NOTES : Astroneus 1st@ 5.90 ;-)


RACE 3:
Listed Sprint is next and i have eyes for three runners only ,
1. TAKE COVER @ 6.20
Led for a long way lto in a really tough Kings Stand and if this gets away smartly and is allowed to bowl along he could have them all strung out with 1f to go but will be making a go of it regardless as he is also last years winner of this race so has to be respected on that form alone.
2. COTAI GLORY @ 9/1 - 3rd
This Charlie Hills inmate could be very special , forget the run in the Abbaye as that was a non event for a host of reasons and focus on A) The Flying Childers when with the race at his mercy and 2L clear he jinked sharply causing the rider to unseat but for my records im having that as a win as he wasnt for passing that day and B) The Molcomb Stakes where he made all and crushed them including 3 runners rated around 105 which is strong enough form on its own to merit consideration then factor in a few pounds of strengthening and build over the winter and a few pounds of obvious improvement to come and this is already a 112 rated runner in waiting and is imo a group horse proper.
3. KINGSGATE NATIVE @ 16/1
This is the old boy in the yard but is still showing flashes of class and brilliance and although not a proper group horse these days is certainly upto taking down an event like this as this is much weaker than what he has been facing and has to included as any form roll backs and he is well clear.
RESULT / NOTES : COTAI GLORY was a good 3rd for us @ 12.50

RACE 4 :
The JOHN SMITHS CUP is a historic race which is also a nightmare for punters and i will again just have a look at three against the field in which i feel could run well.
1. FIRE FIGHTING @ 14/1
From the MJ yard this stern type has enough ability to win but it typical of the MJ outfit as he rarely puts two same runs in together but as he hasnt won for a couple today could be the day.
2. HOMAGE @ 33/1 - Non Runner
Another from the Haggas yard and another that comes here on the back of a light campaign and could be ready to empty those bookie satchels.
3. VOICE OF A LEADER @ 14/1
Another lightly raced type from a yard that could do with another Rodrigo de Triano to get them back in the spot light and who knows..this could be a spring board?.

RACE 5:
Nothing for me here as its a maiden...

RACE 6:
This is more me with another meaty Hcap and i think LONGBOW should be backing LONGSHADOW @ 16/1 ;-) , but i also like the look of ARDLUI @ 16/1 who is proven over the trip which is very important here and is in good form with a solid 3rd lto over this 2m and dont be surprised if Grumeti @ 33/1 runs a big race.

And thats it for York with some excellent racing ( for the bookies ) and a few decent ( ish ) bets to be had im sure we can turn a profit there somehow;).

So we move onto Chester or the home of the Good Doctor as we say and the first race is swerved along with the second and i should swerve the 3rd however im going to have a nibble on LIGHTNING THUNDER @ 16/1 or bigger as this was a classy sort last term that seems to be struggling for confidence , been pulling far too hard in its races and been way to keen however if he can settle and find his groove he will beat this lot fairly easy but based on what we have seen so far this year thats a leap of faith Grand Canyon styleeee but at 16/1 - 20/1 im prepared to give him a chance.
And the remainder of this card holds nothing for me so that is a swift appraisal for Chester with the best bet being just follow the Doctor as he always gets a winner or two here.

Next up its NEWMARKET and it looks a damn good day there ,

RACE 1 : 
Cracking Handicap to start the day and a 2 way dutch is my bet here ,
1. QUICK DEFENCE @ 8/1
&
2. WESTERN RESERVE @ 9/1 - 1st
Both are Khalid runners but for different yards and both are entitled to run here although neither have outstanding claims but i think this is a rock solid EW dutch.

RESULT/NOTES : Another excellent start to the day with a very tasty winner for a decent profit and an easy day.

RACE 2:
This is not normally a race i would get involved in however Hannon/Hughes have won this very prestigious race 3 times in the last five years with the likes of King Torus , Etsikdhar and OLYMPIC GLORY so this is obviously a race they keep something special back for and you can gtee this will be going all out its also rather surprising that this is currently the 12/1 rank outsider even tho its already got good looking winning form when hosing up in its maiden at Epsom..i simply have to be involved at the price, TONY CURTIS.
RESULT/NOTES : A solid enough run to get 3rd at an amazing price..5.2 the FAP is insane on an SP of 12/1...;)

RACE 3:
The Bunbury Cup with 18 runners all charging down this can get messy.
FIELD OF DREAM is a very interesting ride for Joseph O'Brien as this very very inconsistent type who has Won This race before in 2013 with victory and a placed run in two Royal Hunt Cups has all the ability required to race at the top table but so so often fails to turn up and delivers little but it must be said that on his day he can win and he loves these big field events and at 66/1 is well worth a few EW pennies from anyones pocket.
I also feel Jallota can run a big race today with Crowley doing the steering there is no one better in these monster fields as he is a master navigator.
ONE WORD MORE for the Easterby team could also outrun his price in what looks a very tough race.
RESULT/NOTES : ONE WORD MORE was an excellent 2nd for us @ 20.50


RACE 4: 
DARLEY JULY CUP now and its one the years leading sprint races and a decent field of 14 have arrived to fight for the £500,000 prize money on offer.
This is not a Longbow selection race so im writing down the selections from Sniper who states he simply cannot get away from the top three in the betting.
1. BRAZEN BEAU @ 3.60
Australian speedball that was very unlucky lto and looks another southern hemisphere class act and will take all the beating in this.
2. MUTHMIR @ 13.00
Looked one of Europes leading candidates for sprinter of the year at one stage but always has a story to tell and he needs now to finally convince and stamp his authority on this field to be taken seriously only just touched off lto this extra 1f will suit and will be a major player as a group horse racing against mainly handicappers.
3. MUHAARAR @ 3.75 - 1st
Won the Greenham then trounced a super strong field in the Commonwealth Cup at Ascot beating the excellent and very speedy Limato by almost 4L in what was one of the years best sprinting performances seen , loves the trip, loves the ground and holds a host of these on current and past form and for me is the one to be on.
Should be a great race but i cant see past the front three as they look a class apart.
RESULT/NOTES : Muhaarar Wins to make it a cracking day ;)

RACE 5:
BALLYDOYLE should win this maiden with just an ounce of improvement ~ 1st @ 4/7

RACE 6:
&
RACE 7: Offer me nothing so both are avoided.

Another quality card tho with some exceptional racing to enjoy although really decent bets are hard to find with most speculative at best but we do have one or two to keep us ticking over.

Finally we go to ASCOT for what also looks a very tough card and tricky for punters..no dutches for me here just one Longbow selection per race..every race..lets get the rags home!!..

RACE 1 : MEADWAY @ 20/1 - Unplaced
RACE 2 : CABLE BAY @ 6/1 - Unplaced
RACE 3 : RAYS THE BAR @ 50/1 - 1st @ 48.0
RACE 4 : CAPTAIN BOB @ 14/1 - 2nd @ 7.2
RACE 5 : SUPREME OCCASION @ 16/1 - 2nd @ 14.60
RACE 6 : OCEANE @ 10/1 - Unplaced

So thats it a wrap up of todays main action and events ,
BEST BETS : All of them if they win ;-) , but none are absolute stand outs although a few are decent i will be pick n mixing them up in EW accaa's in the hope i can pick 4 or 5 placed and hit something nice...but then on a day like today drawing a big fat blank wouldn't have me concerned.

Friday, 10 July 2015

Frilling Friday

Morning World ,
                            And before all the Grammar Geeks jump up im aware of my play on words so dont bother ;)...
               Today we have a racing Tri-fecta with meetings at Ascot , York and Newmarket...wow what a Friday...this is how racing should be..quality racing at the top tracks.........not always great for the punter tho but hopefully we will find one or two bets to keep us ticking over.

I will only be covering the races i like to look at for a bet or the ones in which i feel i have an angle but Sniper may well cover the cards in more stringent detail but i do know hes Playing Golf today so efforts from him may be thin on the ground.

So we start the day looking thru the YORK card and its a maiden to start and Ajaya looks a shoo in for that so we move swiftly on the next which is a Nursery and this im interested in as there is a chasm in the weights and these youngsters often struggle to give huge amounts away and the two i like in this as options are the two Easterby runners who at 14/1 & 16/1 ( 3.7 each a fap ) are getting over a stone in allowances their form is weak but they are open to any amount of improvement and i like the idea of a fap dutch in this smallish field with top three getting a pay day and that is my call.

 Group 3 Sprint is next with 14 runners which makes it ideal punting material although form would indicate this will be a duel Between Wokingham winner Interception and 7f specialist Kyoshi but at 3.85 & 7.0 offer little value even in a fav based dutch so i think it may pay to stick with some York specialists.
AETNA and  SPINATRIX  are two i really like along with Irish Raider NEWSLETTER.
Aetna needs some cut to show her true form and hasnt had it yet but the ground should be nigh on perfect for her today and with some luck in running could have a major say in the outcome , Spinatrix wins regular enough and holds her form well enough to suggest that she is upto winning again and a repeat of the run when winning the Coral Sprint at York last year puts her right in the frame and Newsletter is a career raider who could be a hcap blot and priced at 12/1,13/1 and 14/1 these are well worth an EW dutch or similar.

Big 16 runner Hcap next and its a proper Longbow race.
The first name on my list is EMERALDHZ at around 20/1 , this won over this 1m4f trip lto at Thirsk in a race much weaker than this but it did piss up so theres your balance and i think this filly is well upto racing and winning in this better grade race and the odds are i think very fair.
MARMION is sure to run a huge race after running Apertarix so close over CD recently and as a leading player i find the 8/1 a rather decent price.
In truth the harder i look through this race the harder i find it to pull myself away from the first 5 in the betting as they all arrive with rock solid form and those im wanting to back seem to have a mountain to climb but CHANCERY at 33/1 could also sneak a place if things fall right and does have the benefit of being stabled at the " touch shit turn into Gold " O'Meara yard so who knows..anything could happen.

Another Hcap next and another decent size with 16 runners but this is a 5f sprint and it could be carnage..which is generally good for me ;).
Bogart is the stand out class in this race but is less predictable than a mad woman on her menstrual cycle so like the woman is best left alone.I would say you want to be looking at something thats not done much for a while and could pop up at a big price but if i did that we would be down to around 4 runners!!..;(.
SILVANUS could surprise having run a decent enough race lto and dont worry about the form turn around ( s ) as is the case with sprinters they take it in turns to beat each other and the 33/1 is big enough to throw a few pennies at.
ADDICTIVE DREAM is also 33/1 and is the one that finished ahead of Silvanus lto in that Conditions event and could easily enough place along with NOBLE STORM but the truth here is that " IF " Bogart can run to anywhere near what he is currently able then this is as good as over as i have him a mile clear in what will be his easiest task to date for quite some time and if he is ever to regain the winning thread then surely it has to be today and i suppose at 7/1 its worth having as some cover in what looks a treacherous race for punters.

18 Runner Hcap is the days next play and it doesnt get any easier but BAREESH looks a blot to me rated 80 after winning his maiden effortlessly and is getting upto a stone in weight from his peers including those rated higher and lower than itself and could have been put in here very lightly and the 9/1 looks a sporting bet although i would have preferred 14 or 16/1 in truth to make it proper palatable.
Elsewhere i think CORREGIO will run another solid race along with CACTUS VALLEY who at 11/1 and 40/1 offer sporting EW options.

In the finale we have two horses who ran no sort of race at all and had proper excuse to explain them so i think at the current odds they are worth an EW dutch to prove they were fluke bad runs and much better is to be seen , the horses in question are SIR DOMINO & SUPER KID  at between 16/1 - 20/1 this is a cracking fap dutch.

Summary : In truth this is a super tough day with no stand out bets as such although the finale really interests me as does Emeraldhz & Spinatrix but its not a day to get too involved in , i will combine them all in some EW accas and hope i hit a few places but im keeping the stakes small and liability limited and i may Lay Mustadam @ 5.0 to offset some or all of todays costs.

Over to NEWMARKET now in the hope that something will shine like a beacon through the fog off handicapping war.....
Forget the first race here and move straight to RACE 2 which is a very decent looking Nursery and i think JUST EMMA is worth a look at 25/1 having run well enough in both the Woodcote and the Queen Mary this big ease in grade will give her time to settle and she could easily out run her price.
  Update : No further updates for today , no time and i must leave the office..ttfn , have a great day.

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