Saturday, 22 November 2014

Late Saturday Post >>>

Hi Guys n Gals ,

Well its been a busy ol week without there being much on lol..one of those weeks where little gets done and the time just seems to fly by....so what have we to look at today? , well i have 4 races i specifically want to look at and with any luck we might be able to conjour up a little Win or EW Yankee/L15 etc....

RACE 1 : 14:440 Ascot > This should be the easiest race to judge as FAUGHEEN could easily prove to be different class as it looks to extend its winning run from 6 from 6 to 7 from 7 and showcase its Triumph Hurdle claims after winning 4 egg n spoon races it easily won the Baring Bingham  and then won the Champion Hurdle event at Punchestown and will be a major force this year...some yard that Mullins has..just insane...will be an interesting race to watch as it has become a bit of a no betting heat , it is currently 1.32 and although its almost a standout " Frankel " bet i find myself holding back until i have seen this first run but i do expect it to win with a certain authority but i have had some good reports from Hendo regarding  Blue Fashion and this 150 rated son of Scorpion should prove a stern enough test...shame tho as it limits the possibilities of me getting a tasty Yankee together for you guys....lets see how we get on as i may add 1 more or revise to a Trixie...

RESULT : 1st - FAUGHEEN @ 1.25 - this pissed in never off the bridle beating Blue Fashion very comfortably...very very impressive.

RACE 2 : 14:05 Ascot > The AMLIN and this looks a cracker on paper a small but select field with some real class and Paul Nicholls will be looking to add to his personal tally in this having won it for 3 of the last for years including last year with one of todays runners AL FEROF and i have long been an admirer of this powerful son of Dom Alco and although breeding suggests he will be better over 3m this has thus far proven well within his realm although his win last year was a non event as only 2 turned up so this must be taken with a large pinch of salt and this is a 100 fold tougher task having been thrashed in its 3 following races by pure quality and its the way it got beat makes me think that Al is not really a proper C1 animal..maybe a weak one but probably just a listed or G2 at best and i think it will again get undone by superior class.
Bury Parade certainly is only C2 and quite often throws a race losing blunder in so for this to be anywhere near the places the others will have to woefully under perform and this will need a career best...far too many variables in that sentence for me to engage..leave alone.

Fox Appeal is interesting as its still a novice and looks to have a bit more improvement inside him but he will need to find that to get anywhere near these , a nice sort and one for future events but not currently at the standard required.
Radjhani Express is a solid if unspectacular performer that offers little in this grade and is easily overlooked leaving for me SOMERSBY and WISHFUL THINKING as the two main protagonists and at 5.0 & 9.2 i think is a solid looking dutch in a fairly open race.....for the Yanksters....well i am open to giving Somersby another chance as he usually takes at least one race to warm up and usually benefits to the tune of around 8lb for the warm up and his class can shine although he is rather unpredictable and not the most reliable sort.

RESULT : 1st - AL FEROF @3.85 > Career best run and it looks like he has finally got his act together , Somersby was 2nd @ 10/1

RACE 3 : 14:25 Haydock > A nice 16 runner Hcap Hurdle to get stuck into , Grade 3 but C1 so comes into this as it could offer us all a nice value bet.
KATKEAU is my HCE Tipping Comp selection and is one i think is a very good bet ( obviously ) as this hosed up after a long absence fto and runs today without its allotted penalty and could easily still be well ahead of the Handicapper and if it doesnt " bounce " then will goo very close and is a EW NAP as the 9.20+ looks a very tasty bite.
Elsewhere ..well in truth i cannot and would not put anyone off trying their hand with any other selection as this looks wickedly close and is as hard a race to judge upon as you will find.

RESULT : 1st AUBUSSON - Fantastic ride and run from a very promising stayer..i was impressed with this , wouldnt say KatKeau bounced as i thought it ran a solid race and looks good but was just beaten fair n square today after a late race hamper come in 5th ( one out of the 4 paid places ) and was matched as low as 2.0 for the win and 1.02 fap.....ALMOST MADE IT HOME FOR THE BACON..

RACE 4 : 

Betfair Chase (Registered As The Lancashire Chase) (Grade 1)

..Now for me its the days big one and a race that many a question will need to be answered , Can Silvi bounce back after a poor show fto when tanking then flattening , can Cue Card reveal a glimpse of its truest ability over a trip that has often left me bemused , Will Taquin finally show his true colours , can Dynaste stop fucking about and finally be the champion we know he can be ?????...so many questions to answer from most of the field.....and in truth if they all run to their very best then i think its too close to call  it will be for me a case of who ever turns up today and runs anything like wins..simple..
Cue Card often needs a pipe opener but really has to show it for me as i have little trust in this until i see some form but this CD winner is in with an obvious shout , I really dont know what to make of Dynaste a horse i love  but rarely shoves a full shift in ..so many umms n arrs so im gonna have a Max Dutch on Silvi & Cue Card (  Nap Bet ) as i think this is the strongest bet and at 5.0 & 5.3 offers plenty of Value......

RESULT : 1st - SILVI' @ 5.27.....and thats the NAP bet Home...BoooM ;-)

                                    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Good Luck All, have fun n enjoy your Saturday.

Friday, 14 November 2014

Back from the unexpected...

Hi All im back after having to take a break away as me n the mrs departed our merry ways and i took it upon myself to take a break n visit me mam in sunny Spain to clear my head...and here we are...back to reality.........and its all about the NH now and Cheltenham adds fuel by holding its first true " Open " Weekend and the Friday card looks a great test and im hoping to see Saturdays equally stellar as we go the Nap hunt...so without further ado lets go n smash Cheltenham...

CHELTENHAM 

RACE 1 : 19 Runner Novice hurdle to get the day started ...is this a setter for the rest of the day...i seriously hope not as this looks very tough and not at all punter friendly.
Earth Amber from the Hendo yard will need to seriously improve both its technical side and its character as this moody sort although ability packed is a monster to train and will on the day do what he wants and that is enough reason for me to leave this alone.
GOLDEN JUBILEE looks a useful sort based on its fto run where it won with any amount in hand and was never pressed and this arrives here in form and getting upto just over 2 stone from its rivals as it views everything from bottom weight , this is no shoo in by any means but has to be in the final fence shake down  with anything like a clear round.
Chesterfield will be well fancied but like so many of the Ferguson flat track bullies he may find one or two of these too fit and too good so is easily overlooked..on this occasion..., GREAT CHOICE and JOHN LOUIS are two that i like and both look likely fto improvers from canny trainers and if the prices allow i am dutching the fap..but wont really know till tmrw...if i had to hang my hat on a sole EW selection then it probably be Great Choice.

WIN - GREAT CHOICE - 2nd @ 8.92
EW - JOHN LOUIS - 6th
LONG - GOLDEN JUBILEE -

RESULT : 
                                                 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 2 : This is a far easier to manage 5 runner 3m Novice Chase and it looks at first glance to be a monster Stat Lay race so i will wait for my bet choice until around half hour before the race but in all honesty is this rank up there at around the 9+ scale.
For the backers, punters and race goers i think Knock House could end up the best of these long term although it has yet to prove it stays although in truth it won so well over 2m5f lto ( won by what seemed a furlong when in fact it was only 18L ) that i really cant see this being an issue and this is worth a double check but it will take a super run to beat SAUSALITO SUNRISE which stays all day and at race pace which is a big plus and is a lot different to just staying as this multiple distance winner ( all 5 wins have been over 24f ) looks to have a much better engine than likely deceivers Kings Palace and this ranks a pretty good bet.

WIN - SAUSALITO SUNRISE - 2nd @ 4.10
EW - KNOCK HOUSE -
LONG - N/A -

RESULT : 
                                                 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 3 : Now we have a race up that will placate the purists lol..its a Grade 3 Hcap chase..haha for punters these are nightmare races...Hcap and Beginner chases are the two toughest realms to attack and are ones i often leave alone however we cant do that for you lovely lot ;@) , the last two running's were won by the 10-0 bottom weights and in the last 8 years nothing over 11-9 has won so we will take out the top 3 that brings us to that level , Gevrey Chambertain was woeful lto so is readily fucked off , The Package is a classy sort on his day but the last time he showed any willingness to run Pat Eddery had just been born so is another on the dodge pot list , Lamb or Cod is a nice sort but only just gets this trip so i think i am going to look outside of the proverbial box here and have an EW on MASTER NEO who won very well indeed lto and jumper soundly is lightly raced and will enjoy any cut in the ground and at decent enough double figures is a solid bet where many in the field are practitioners of flattery and self flagellation.

WIN - THE DRUIDS NEPHEW- 2nd @ 5.72
EW - CAPE TRIBULATION -
LONG - MASTER NEO -

RESULT : 
                                                 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 4 : Todays Big one the PADDY POWER GOLD CUP and this looks a cracking renewal where plenty will have been trained for this as an early season shot across the bows and with 19 runners this will takes some winning so lets take a look at the class in the field.
The class it has to be said is spread throughout as there are some tasty ol runners here but i will fire my first Arrow into OSCAR WHISKEY who is a proper class 1 horse over this trip but i am personally not quite taken with his attitude or resistance in a battle and is one until i see improvements to leave alone...on the other hand JOHNS SPIRIT has been an utter revelation the last 2 years moving up from tasty Hcaps to listed then Class 1 with ease and on its first run this season it was never off the bridle until it turned into a 2 way fight to the line but John had too much class and won well and readily i might add by 1L and 6L and this is a truly top class stayer make no mistake and is worth following until something dramatic changes as i honestly think this is up there knocking on the door of the Sprinter Sacre's and Annie Powers..so to get a price like 12/1 is imo outstanding and i simply have to get involved. (

 )BUYWISE is another up n coming champ in the making and also won well fto and looks Festival bound but he has gone up an eye watering 38lb this year alone and the tipping point will be found eventually so i am happy to watch that race and if it wins then so be it.
Present View ( 3rd ) is another that is superbly consistent and having been unplaced just the once in 10 outings is another that will do nothing but improve and i think he is good for at least another 16lbs so is well in off his current mark but at around the joint fav mark of 7/1 offers little to entice a bet and is one best watched today and Indian Castle is another who looks well in and could easily get involved but for me this is all about Johns Spirit EW NAP with most bookies paying an Extra place..el lump for me as i see no way this doesnt place with a clear round.

WIN - JOHNS SPIRIT - 2nd @ 13.0
EW - OSCAR WHISKEY- 4th
LONG - BUYWISE -

RESULT : 
                                                 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 5 : Next up is a tough 3m Hcap Hurdle and this looks very tight on my ratings and stat base as im having trouble splitting 5 of these.

So lets just focus on my Fab 5..
1.KATKEAU - Hasnt raced for over 600 days but was smart looking prior to the injury and if Pipey had got him back in good order and the belief and ability are still present then he could easily make the frame or better but at 5.7 offers fuck all in value and simply has to be dropped on the basis of non existent value.-1st @ 6.80

2.INVICTA LAKE - This is a step up in class for this but it won a nice looking C3 event lto over a similar trip so easily it had crossed the line in front in nothing more than a common canter and i think it has every chance based on that and is well deserved of his place in this line up and at 18/1 is worth a nibble for a fun bet in a tough race.- 3rd @ 23.46

3.PINEAU DE REI - This is a nice sort from the very capable Newland yard and last years National Winner wont be lacking for any form of stamina and should there be any doubts about the others this distance winner could be there at the end to mop up after them all but in truth i dont feel he will have the pace or class for something like this and the 20/1 is too small for me to get involved.

4.VIVALDI COLLENGES - This has the potential to be the real class act in this , lightly raced and consistent this could go right to the top and a nice return when just touched off will have brought him on n he should now be spot on and this for me is the likeliest winner and the 7/a stands out as a corking EW bet.

5.FIGHTER JET - Never under estimate anything Alan King sends out as he showed last season the wily old fox is back at the top of his game and as his ammo chest fills up it wont be long until he can start firing back at the likes of Mullins et al and the 14/1 on this is not a bad bet imo does stay but often gives himself too much to do and throws in one too many mistakes.

WIN - VIVALDI COLLENGES -
EW - KATKEAU - 1st @ 6.80
LONG - INVICTA LAKE - 3rd @ 23.46

RESULT : 
                                                 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 6 : HARGAM which was sold out of the operation run by IDK in France reckons this is a shoo in for some future black type as rates this group class..Bought by JP and sent to Hendo they expect big things of this who is by a mare that is by Galileo and is by Sinndar in the first degree..thats a very attractive blood line in either code and this multi £££ purchase will be expected , however if the ground is way soft then they wont risk a slog for exertion so may take an easy route ( this is only an assumption ) and i do feel the 2.72 is a very decent price and im making this my stand out bet and NAP for the day. - 2nd @ 3.04 ( Hit 1.04 )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ & PLACEPOT LANDED @ 4 LINES....;-))
And in the NHF im sticking with the red hot Greatrex and having a go on Miss Estrila....Have a great day all good luck and ttfn

Saturday, 1 November 2014

Sunny Saturday

Well what a spectacular Month Weather wise..moving into the 1st Nov and its 19°..this is bonkers...but lets enjoy this final flourish as im sure the cold damp n miserable weather will not be far away.........well the Charlie Hall usually means for most the NH season has started in earnest and the whole Wetherby card looks pretty decent in truth but its Ascot that is getting my vote as i like the look of some of the races on offer and a mix of tricky n fun....however everyone must back Silvi Conti today as i see this no way losing as its the class act and is a good 8-10lb better away from Cheltenham..should muller these if anywhere near fit n ready.

Race 1 : Its a 2m4f ( almost ) Hcap hurdle and with 14 runners and a good spread thru the field looks a nice race to get involved in.
No class acts on show but one or two with potential and i think its the type of race where any runner that is not double figures gets kicked to the curb and thats takes three out straight away so we are down to eleven runners and this is a massive stat race with only Shalianzi missing the cut so we are down to manageable 10 runners.
I dont like Money for Nothing at All so thats out ( down to nine runners ) and the rest are quite closely matched making this a tight affair .
The two i like for a FAP Dutch are COUP DE GRACE and CUSHEEN BRIDGE now neither are super stars but the former has a bit of scope and stays well and at full race pace so will be in the hunt all the way round whilst Cusheen Bridge often leaves its charge to late and is often caught out or knocked back and if these off the pace types make a mistake it can prove very costly so this will need to get some nice cover and get a good slot no later than three out then move thru what will be a few beaten horses as we have pace setters in this which should cause its own set of problems so a tidy Fap Dutch is the order in this.
Stick Rascal in for the PP

RESULT : 

Race 2 : Tidy little Novice Hurdle now with just the 8 runners but iun truth this looks little more than a match between CLONDAW BANKER and OUR KAEMPER as they alreay look a cut above the remainder which are made of ex pointers and failed ring types and i will be quite shocked if one of these dont take this down and with the dutch paying just under 1.50 i think this is an outstanding bet and wont look elsewhere.

RESULT  : 

Race 3 : Next up its a Hcap Chase ..these and Beginners are the two i really dont like as both can prove very hard to predict as your angle of attack or window of opportunity in these is so much smaller...COCKTAILS AT DAWN looks a nice type and looks a ready made chaser and will be winning races for sure and could today prove to be well ahead of the handicapper although from a pro bet perspective i think the 3.80 or so for the FAP on GENEROUS RANSOM is a good looking bet and should be included into any decision you make , both in the PP for me.

RESULT  : 

Race 4 : This looks a cracker 9 runners in this Byrne Group Listed Event over 2m1f  Claret Cloak is the class act but wont give the weight away without a superhuman run and thats not happening today...ONE TERM  is the bet for me here at 12/1 unbeaten over fences and because its had a year or so off its a crazy price progressive and classy and right in the middle weight wise ..like a good girlfriend is both giving and receiving ;) and this is a knocking EW bet.
Elsewhere and for the PP im Having Bellenos and Stone Light.

RESULT  : 

Race 5 : SIGN OF A VICTORY And thats me outta time....with Geverey Chambertain and Restless Harry in the Finale 

Thursday, 23 October 2014

WAWAW...

Morning All ,
                   Well the end is nigh well for the flat season at least as we rapidly draw a close on what has been a season full of anti climaxes but we have enough in the NH locker to keep us sufficiently occupied and interested and this coupled with the AW winter season is enough to keep us rolling and ticking over nicely , this post has been generated for Simon " WAWAW " Cooper who has a few days off work and is off on the lash n going to Donny races so fingers crossed i can give him some assistance in nailing a few winners and making the day even more fun.....so lets go....

DONCASTER

RACE 1 : A 2 yr old Nursery isnt a great way to start as these are betting minefields where quite often either the fav wins or the rank outsider ( or one off )  with all the concessions available these are much like a Hcap for 2 yr olds and you will often see horses with little or no form suddenly running well...Fortunately the ground is only a wee bit soft and mostly good to soft so i will produce the card on the basis that the ground is good , so looking back 3 of the last 4 running's of this have been won by relatively fancied sorts however if you look thru the last 6 then we see 3 winners at 11/1 , 16/1 and 33/1 so that shows how tough it can be.
Last Years winner won and raced to a rating of 88 ( now rated 110 ) and Roaldhino won with a rating of 86 so that gives you an idea of the performance required to win ( fair imo ) and with all the facts at hand i think the three to focus on will be BOLD APPEAL , Lockstock Hall and Best Example as these all have the form to show up well , will like the trip and have conditions to suit.

WIN - BEST EXAMPLE - 
EW - LOCKSTOCK HALL - 

LONG - BOLD APPEAL - 
                                   
Comments : Best bet is probably an EW on Bold Appeal but with all races check the prices for a dutch
                                                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 2 : Now we have a rather tough looking Maiden for the Fillies and with so many looking very well bred this is a bettors minefield however we do have a few with experience and/or form and i think it will be prudent to stick with these.
The Winner for me does look to be the Daughter of Sea The Stars YARROW after this started slowly fto and raced greenly being pushed along at hal way but did then respond and run on well to finish inside 2L of the winner when coming 2nd over 1m on the polytrack and this form and experience could just swing it her way however she wont have it all her own way as Star of Seville also looks a nice runner from the Gosden yard and this has a similar profile and finally we have one that will need to show improvement but i think thats a given and thats Mythical Moment from the Haggas yard a lovely looking filly by Authorized that could and should run a much better race this time.

WIN - YARROW  - 
EW - STAR OF SEVILLE - 1st @ 4.80

LONG - MYTHICAL MOMENT  - 
                                   
Comments : Best bet is the Dutch on Yarrow and Star of Seville as its my belief that the two of these will be very hard to beat.
                                                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 3 : And its another Maiden...and again for the fillies....jeez tough for the punters...The form on offer from those that have run is much weaker here with only FILAMENT the standout beaten on 3/4L fto and with natural progression this is the one to beat.
We do have some very nice looking unraced sorts on show with some royally bred with Namhroodrah , Beautiful Romance and Striding Out all looking to get a win on the books at the first attempt and my breeding book has little to separate these three so its a case of pick n hope.

WIN - FIGMENT  - 3rd @ 7/4
EW - BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE - 1st @ 4.41

LONG - NAMHROODAH - NR
                                   
Comments : Best bet is possibly an EW on Filament but its a tough one to call in this Div as im also quite keen on Beautiful Romance.
                                                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 4 : And its yet another Maiden....for the boys this time...Udododontyou peaks my interest as its by Lope de Vega and will probably go off  at an insane price but could run well however that wud be a small stakes fun punt as there appear to be plenty in this with far better chances and the best of those maybe TRUE RESPECT by Shamardal who i think could be a bit special and quite often the boys in blue keep some of their better prospects until the back end and this could be either smart or backwards...i also like Penag Paparaja and of course it would be folly to leave out THAHAB a well bred sort owned by Al Shaqab and trained by the master at this game Hannon with the remainder much of a muchness.

WIN - TRUE RESPECT - 4th
EW - THAHAB - 3rd @ 3.85

LONG - PENANG PAPARAJA  - 
                                   
Comments : I like th dutch with True Respect and Thahab here as i think these are most likely to run well but its another tough race for punting and i would limit stakes again.

                                                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 5 : Punters nightmare as it doesnt get any easier with this 6f 22 runner hcap , AETNA will come into this with a massive chance having shown some great consistency over the season and this is coupled with some very strong winning and placed form none better than when winning a 20 runner sprint at York on soft ground..if this gets the breaks it should run a huge race , Doc Hay has been in great form as well with winning form over 5 , 6 and 7f on all ground types this will be there at the end and i think Another wise kid could surprise a few with Lee riding this has great place claims.

WIN - AETNA - NR
EW - DOC HAY - NR

LONG - ANOTHER WISE KID - 
                                   
Comments : Tough race and not a great betting heat but Aetna is worth a bet as this is probably the class act and with a clear run will go very close.
                                                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 6 : Next up is a 1m6f race and with 20 runners things dont get any easier...NOVIRAK could supply Freddie T with another winner today as this will unlike most really enjoy the trip the ground and arrives in form and will be a big player in this , others to note are Almagest and Norway Cross both of whom arrive in form and from stables that know how to ready a hcap winner.

WIN - NOVIRAK  - 2ND @ 8.20
EW - ALMAGEST - 

LONG - NORWAY CROSS - 
                                   
Comments : Another tough race but Novirak looks a good call here as most dont stay the trip at pace.
                                                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 7 : Finally its taken most of the day but we have a race to get stuck into as we have a good field size of ten and its over a proper distance of 1m2f so lets hope we have a good un....well we dont have a nap yet but i do like CAPE CASTER who easily gets trip and a bit further is in form and looks a good bet here today , Raven Ridge and Top o The Glas should be good enough to get involved

WIN - CAPE CASTER - 2nd @ 6.40
EW - RAVEN RIDGE - 

LONG - TOP O THE GLAS - 4th
                                   
Comments : Cape Caster looks a strong EW bet here and will good for the doubles or trebles.
                                                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

FINALE : The getting out stakes and after what can be only described as a rough day gets no easier as its not only a 20 runner hcap but its for the ams as well so its just a crazy finish , anything Serena rides warrants respect as she is a very capable jockey and does quite well in these but Stephen Walker is also very good in these and i think he could be the answer on a horse that is in good form and consistent , a straightforward ride and will take the beating although its only won once is relatively lightly raced with just the 10 outings and its only been beaten by small amounts in tight finishes of late so i think this should go well.

WIN - ARYIZAD - 3rd @ 5.60
EW - HUSSAR BALLAD - 

LONG - MIXED MESSAGE - 
                                   
Comments : Tough day ...very tough and i would have Aryizad in some mixed EW doubles to have interest or a win to get me out of trouble...good luck.
                                                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Saturday, 18 October 2014

Champions Day ~~

Evening mofo's ,
                         Well yesterday went pretty much like clockwork...Both EW Naps getting placed ( nice double ) , the Win NAP Won at 2.54 , the Pro Bet LAY got well beat and the PPL Bet was an easy profit so all in all a full house of profitable results ...thats what makes a good day and i managed to sneak 9 holes in whilst getting a new boiler fitted and my central heating upgraded ;-)....so Champions Day is upon us and that pretty much signals the end of the flat season proper...The NH season is now starting to swing into full action with Cheltenham on the go and that makes for a great Saturday of racing , we have Ascot champions day with cruel soft ground which has depleted some fields but still enough quality to get excited and we also have another crack at Chelts as they hold day 2 of their opening extravaganza and i dont really know why but im really kinda looking forward to the NH game this year as i feel let down by the flat as i expected so much yet i feel it delivered so little...Kingman was amazing and was a true world class beast , Australia would have been great with a better jockey riding ( sorry JoB fans but Ryan Moore would have made a difference ) and Taghrooda a wonder filly along with the enigmatic Treve,,,she did fuck all all year turns up at the Arc and turns that into a procession...hmm i was a bit wtf was that with it.......Sole Power remains the sprint king but this will be his last year as we have some smart older horses coming thru and the balance of power plus age will see the swing, none the less i yearn to see some of the NH game give me the thrills i feel i have lacked over the last few months....come on Hendo sort your team out and stop giving me and Young Nicky such shit info....;-/

Right so lets cast our beady eyes over firstly Ascot then Cheltenham...

ASCOT 

Race : 1 , We start off the day with the Long Distance Cup a race over 2m and can someone explain to me how the fuck LEADING LIGHT is 3.80....grab this NOW!!....what a fucking gift from the bookmaking gods , loves the soft ground , stays all day and is one of Europes outstanding stayers...i would honestly have made it clear 6/4F so getting this price gives me shivers its just awesome!!...you are talking about the winner of a Gold Cup , the Vintage Stakes and the St Leger...this is a seriously class horse and although there are some smart staying types in this like Estimate, Biographer and Forgotten Rules this Leading Light will only truly shine over 2m + anything less and its a gamble but we back to the ground..its gonna be testing and most wont like it but LL loves it...this is a cracking bet ( at the odds ) and i urge you all to have a go ( not a Nap on my form cast but a cracking value bet ) .

RESULT : Unplaced ( Bumped, hampered, impeded it had everything thrown at it in the last third...)

Race 2 : , Now we have the Champion Sprint which has been some what affected due to some early stage withdrawals but its still a great race none the less and the ground will prove pivotal and the two i like here are MAAREK who at 8.40 represents some cracking value as he has shown not a lot of late but on ground he has not liked and now back on this slush i expect to see Maarek show his true form on the ground he has been crying out for and i have this alongside GORDON LORD BYRON who isnt the smartest sprinter but does the 7f trip really well and i feel that stamina at speed edge will see him last home better than most and he could run from the pack and take plenty out and the 7.20 is a fair if not outstanding price but this for me makes for a great looking dutch , of the others i feel Eton Forever has a good EW shout at 16/1 or higher who is another soft ground racer with the current and back form to get involved.

RESULT : 1st @ 7.28 ( Maarek was 4th @ 10.28 )

Race 3 : , The Fillies n Mares is next and over 1m4f this looks a tough race to get a design on and Seal of Approval who is vying for favoritism will have been laid out for this after winning it last year but has run so flat i think it can be justifiably over looked.
I like Hadaatha but i feel the price is all wrong so even at 7.20 im not interested , Silk Sari has been running well but has beaten nothing of note and mostly have been flawed  but as i look thru the field i see not a great deal or anything that stands out clearly and its the 6.60 Fav and that price is just on the right side of good but its not a good race for favs..stats shmats...ok i have read and re-read all form available and gone thru them all several times and the only bet i can see is the one on SILK SARI ( EW ) ..i would say not outstanding but would make a great filler for an EW acca or similar.
RESULT : 2nd @ 6.73

Race 4 : , Now we have potentially the days big race , the QEII and over 1m this trip for all age has been won by some super stars in previous years inc the likes of the mighty Frankel , Excelebration , Mark of Esteem , Rip Van Winkle and Dubai Millemium to name a few so you see it takes a star to win this.
This year is a bit odd as we have no stand out miler ( in attendance or still racing to be relevant ) Kingman would have won if taken part but thats not to be so on the basis of all known form and incorporating the ground conditions and race conditions i think the bet here is a EW on CHARM SPIRIT who only tasted defeat when beaten by Night of Thunder in the 2000 Guineas but has improved by leaps n bounds since where as NoT has stagnated and i think the Frenchie will take a world of beating in this , Night of Thunder himself plus Intergral are the only other two with any real class and they will again make a race of it....these three i feel will be the ones fighting out the finish.
RESULT : 1st @ 7.86

Race 5 : , And still the magic rolls on with the days next mahoosive race...the Qipco Champion Stakes won recently by Farhh and Frankel and previously by New Approach and Bosra Sham ...wow what a roll call and although im not sure we will see something of their caliber im sure the winner we have to be top drawer.
We can keep the Frankel line going by cheering home its full brother NOBLE MISSION and on soft ground over its best trip ( this 1m2f ) i think we have every chance of doing so and at 7.40 ( current price ) or better this is an outstanding EW bet ( EW NAP ) , This has recently Won the Tattersalls Gold Cup on soft ground over 10f , the Huxby Stakes on soft over 10f , The Gordon Richard Stakes over 10f on Soft with all its inferior or disappointing runs coming over further this has ticks in all the boxes and a touch of class and will run a huge race.
CDA still has class but is very easy to oppose and at 2.72 is also a PRO BET LAY , Al Kazeem looks a spent force , Ruler of the World has ability but rarely puts a shift in , Pethers Moon isn't really a group 1 horse , Free Eagle looks a top class sort and cannot be ignored and if you believe the hype then this race is already a done deal.....time will tell...
So we have a conflict a race in which we have both an EW Nap and a Pro Bet LAY...which bet is the better bet and which offers the greater RR Ratio ??...well in truth at the current odds there is little in it as the Fap on NM is a similar RRR as the Lay on CDA ???.....im gonna say the best bet in this race is the FAP on Noble Mission....only just but it gets the call.

RESULT : Noble Mission 1st @ 10.43

Race 6 : , and to round the card off we have a bonkers 28 runner 1m Hcap...get yer pins out boys n girls....The three i like in this for the PP and for dutching are Chatez , Buckstay and VELOX.

RESULT : all unplaced....

                                                                ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

So that has sorted out Champions day do we have any ammo or thoughts indeed on Cheltenham ??....

CHELTENHAM

Race 1 : Very tight race to open the card up and a race full of ex pointers ( some prolific ) and a cagey play is required as the book has this has a two runner race , I think in fairness the top two in the market are gonna prove tough to beat but from a betting perspective ( ie : if i was at the track or wanting a fun run for my money ) then i think an EW on Bally Beaufort is the play its been backed from 15/1 into 8/1 already for chump change and its current price offers nothing but if i could get 16/1 or better before the race id have a go if not then Byron Blue might be worth a look at 25/1 or better but these are speculative punts where your hoping for certain scenarios to play out rather than just relying on your horse to step up as IN THE ROUGH looks the likeliest winner on paper and isnt a bad bet at 2.92.

RESULT : In The Rough 1st @ 3.60

Race 2 : Very nice looking Class 2 Hcap chase with some very decent sorts in the line up , ERICHT @ 8/1 looks a decent EW bet in this having never run unplaced when coming off a break of 60 days or more and is a class animal on his day and with the Hendo yard in tip top shape i see no reason why this shouldnt run a decent race , ive not had a word for it as yet but i had " words " regarding the state of the yard last week and everything is in good order , Champion Court is a lovely type but may have too much weight today , Claret Cloak is almost there , Johns Spirit would have been primed for a repeat victory and will surely give his all and Bennys Mist n Sew on Target are both capable making this look quite a hot renewal...exciting stuff indeed.

RESULT : Ericht 3rd @ 9.80

Race 3 : This has PPL Written all over it , will check the prices again tmrw but i think its another cracker.

RESULT : NO BET

Race 4 : Another decent looking Hcap Chase and another tight competitive race in which many come into the reckoning , i have two i like here for completely different reasons , firstly ALFIE SPINNER who is on a really good mark now and will be winning soon as the handicapper keeps knocking a few pound off here n there and at 30/1 is well worth some EW interest and secondly we have LE BEC who is imo the real class act here and would have gone close to winning the RSA at the festival had he not fallen 4 out when up with the leaders and looking good and at 6.6 is a very strong EW bet.

RESULT : Alfie Spinner 3rd @ 17.24 ( Le Bec was a Non Runner)

Race 5 : A patchy work a day Hcap hurdle up next but its ANDY KELLY that has got me in a lather as my spies in the ECL camp tell me this will go very close to winning with a clear round  and the 7/1 isnt a bad price at all , however i have an even stronger report for ACT ALONE and at 7.2 offers similar value so im gonna not look anywhere else and just lump the dutch on these...i think its a cracking bet.

RESULT : 

Race 6 : PPL Race...Nuff said ;-)...
RESULT : No Bet

Race 7 : Traditional end to a NH card the NHF race and i have a good word for HOW ABOUT IT here , former PTP Winner has been doing good work at home and has been impressing and they think it should go close to winning but this is a hot looking race so confidence is tempered...its more of a tester than anything else.

RESULT : Unplaced but nothing could have lived with the 11/4f and winner as it demolished these...


Today looks another solid cracking days racing with so much on offer my best bets are 

1. Leading Light - EW - £500 Loss

2. Maarek / GLB & Andy Kelly/ Act Alone in a dutch double - £500 Loss

3. Le Bec / Ericht / In the Rough/ Leading Light in EW Doubles and 4 fold. - £26.54 Profit

4. Both PPL Bets - No Bets

5.FAP on Noble Mission. - £1000+ Profit


Good Luck and have a great Day.

Friday, 17 October 2014

Happy Friday ;)

Morning Folks,
            Well this week has seen the usual October onslaught of rain n pain and the ground on some courses has been almost unraceable so its been slim pickings although i have hit a few nice PPL bets this week to keep me ticking over and a few of my members on our Racing channel on Facebook have been on fire with the likes of Paul " Stevo " Stephenson , Seamus Furlong and the enigma that is Eric Winner all kicking in some winners and the odd winning double making our racing family versatile , fun and on occasions very profitable.... ( keep it up guys , great work ) ...so what makes today a Happy Friday ?? , well we have two meetings of choice , Firstly we have the season opener from the mighty Cheltenham and we always get some nice sorts running here with plenty of betting opportunities as the NH cranks it up and secondly we have a cracking looking card at Newmarket ( HQ ) as they start their Champions Weekend and the whole card looks nice but it is almost tragic that the ground has cut up soft with it potentially racing like its heavy and after a days racing im thinking it could be pretty poor tmrw...see how we get on today.

So lets start the day off by taking a look at Cheltenham , ...

Race 1 : This looks ultra tough and one simply cant get involved here as they all look decent prospects but FRAMPTON does look like it has the ability to be " extra " special after winning fto beating the useful Milord and never off the bridle and although this is a far tougher test this could be the answer but as i stated this is only speculative and is a no bet race for me.RESULT : 4th  and well beaten , no complaints ) 

Race 2: This would appear a far easier race to assess as COURT MINSTREL looks a cut above these already , this won a Scottish Champion Hurdle so is not without speed and stamina and it would seem that he is also a tidy jumper and is certainly a horse on the up , not fully extended and we dont know just how good but i will be surprised if hes not upto giving these a good tonking ( NAP ) . RESULT : 1st ( Won Easy )  @ 2.56

Race 3 : Cracking opening race to the Pertemps series and this 17 runner charge will be a high quality affair and its full of promising sorts.
Henryville , the 3 JP Runners and Syabrite all have it in them to win while San Telm and Samingarry could surprise however im going to offer DESTROYER DEPLOYED one last chance to shine after an indifferent spell chasing this classy sort ( on his day ) is back hurdling and off a very fair mark and a nothing weight ( after Johns extra allowance has come off ) give this every chance and if in the mood could strike at a very nice price  ( currently 30/1 ) and i think it has to be worth some EW consideration ~( will be getting some from me ) its not a great bet in the sense that if you compare its actual chance of winning ( true price ) against its implied chance of winning ( the price you get from the bookmaker ) as i would have had it in around the 40-50/1 mark in truth as its overall form profile compared to some of these is piss poor however...it does have a touch of class and has plenty enough ability to strike if in the mood and with all conditions in favour i think its worth a tickle or two. RESULT : Unplaced ( Blundered when going well and not recover, jury is still out , Syabrite Wins  @ 10/1 ) 

Race 4 : This is a tricky little 5 runner race and in truth a case of sorts can be made for all so with that and the current market forces allowing im simply going to smash this as a PPL race as its a 10/10 and its simply too good to miss. RESULT : BoooM as the Fav is Unplaced @ 1.95 ( 1.41 ) 

Race 5 : COMMISSIONED...yes i know its a 4/9 shot but i see little point in going against it  , i wouldnt back it as i see this race a watching brief but i would be mighty shocked if it didnt win so it becomes a race for me to leave alone ...although....if it was backed in more to say 1.36 - 1.42 then i think there is enough in this race to al least make a race of it and i think you can go for a decent trade off at 1.82 - 2.16 with little loss liability should it not come off. RESULT : 1st @ 4/9F ( Won Easy )

Race 6 : Its an Amateur event and i just follow Steven Clements in these

Race 7 : And to finish we have a really good looking conditional jockeys race with some very high profile names in attendance , Now there is some rather interesting facts to take with this, firstly....Nico ( De Boinville ) is a family friend and a bloody good rider and horseman and he has had some cracking wins for his gaffer who is of course the erstwhile Nicky Henderson ( Hendo ) and to see him " jocked off " and riding Drumlang is disappointing but Peter Carberry is another friend of the family but his last 14 rides have been fruitless , his win rate is low and his overall profile leaves a bit to find but he is friends with the owner Buckley ( Bucky ) so without knowing the full facts i can only guess as to how this riding arrangement come about but Hammersley Lake would appear to have a leading chance if the rider can produce a professional sit.

Mountain King is a lovely looking sort and will make them all go and has arguably the best conditional on board in the shape of  M ( Pron~ My Heel )  Nolan and this distance winner has to go close with a clear round.

Finally we have my selection , the horse carrying my money and that is VIBRATO VALTAT who was 3rd in the Swinton on his last outing having beaten fair n square the 4/9f  Sign of Victory from the Hendo yard previously and for me this is the class act and a simple reproduction of that run sees him place or win and at 6/1 is my EW NAP . - RESULT : 3rd @ 4.10 ( Ran well and hit 1.36 on the run to the line )

and here endeth the Cheltenham day....hope its helped in some small way , now we move onto Newmarket....

Race 1 :  A 15 runner Nursery is tough but in the soft its almost suicidal betting so stakes are at the min if at all so it is with great trepidation that i will speculatively nominate FIDELMA MOON as a sporting EW , will love the trip and ground and won well enough lto to suggest she is upto this and being the 40/1 rank outsider you can have a little EW bet for fun. RESULT : UNPLACED ( Ran ok until weakening away over 2f out, not good enough winner was a 16/1 Burke runner )

Race 2 : Next up its the Cornwallis Stakes for 2 yr olds and this is usually a decent race and this a good un but i am rather keen on STRATH BURN who is imo top rated and has easily the best form on offer, is lightly raced and looks the class act plus his run behind Kool Kompany is easily good enough to get involved...++ the ground was softer than this when he run in France so i see that being no problem if anything its an advantage so all said n done i think this is a cracking wee bet and at 6/1 is my EW NAP . RESULT : 2nd @ 6.26 ( Ran a solid race, no complaints )

Race 3 : Another cracker now and this time its the Middle Park and we have a Red Hot fav in the shape of Ivawood and in all honesty after witnessing how it destroyed the fields in its last two races when making all i fail to see what else can win...Kool Kompany is a big price @ 12 and this could easily be a 1-2 for the Hannon Team and the FC is not a bad bet but i just cant get away from IVAWOOD being the winner here even at 1.74....RESULT : 2nd @ 1/2F ( Beaten a Nose , ran well enough with more to come, Godolphin winner may bring a smile to their yard for next season )

Race 4 : Now we have the Fillies Mile ( again for 2 yr olds ) and i think it will take a very smart performance to see LUCIDA beaten and i think a double with Ivawood is a decent bet as she won on Yielding ground on her debut. RESULT : Well Beaten ( Unplaced )  by the AoB runner ( 7/1 ) @ 6/5F

Race 5 : And the big races dont stop yet as we now move onto the Dewhurst which is one of the biggest trials races of the year for 2 yr olds and with previous winners like Dawn Approach , Parish Hall and War Command this usually throws up something smart and although the ground has turned a few away i still feel it will be a good un that wins and i am thinking that the Pro Bet here is to LAY the Fav which is currently 2.34 as i am struggling to find a winner although i do quite like the look of Smugglers Cove ( 3rd @ 7/2 ) . RESULT : FAV was UNPLACED @ 2.50

Race 6 : Now we have a Hcap thats all dressed up as a Group 3 over 7f and its as wide open a race as you'll find but i think THAWAANY who loves the soft ground is a nice prospect with an outstanding chance here and at 3.80 looks a good bet to get out of jail with , its a good day with some great action , enjoy and have fun...ttfn x. RESULT : NON - RUNNER

                                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Saturday, 11 October 2014

Sunny Saturday ;)

Morning All ,

Its a cracking early start with the fog lifting and the sun shining and as we roll towards the end of the Flat season we get to enjoy the last couple of big weekends ( Flat ) before the NH brigade really roll out in strength and take over but we must talk about the Intermediate yesterday at NA where Wonderful Charm Won and reversed a 5L loss to Taquin De Seuil by beating it this time by 24L now i dont know quite how much we can take from this as the whole race suffered from runners sloppy jumping and hampering one n other but Wonderful Charm who traveled indifferently got a second wind and when at the front was never going to lose and after contesting a few tasty races last year has grown and could prove to be quite a star , yes , more is needed but like the others he will come on for this run and will pick up another couple of decent rated events through the season, TDS was miserable , Colour Squadron always flatters to deceive and Black Thunder although a nice sort isnt quite as good as people think so the form for me has lots of holes but it was a nice opener from the winner and he should be followed.

Back to today and we have the season finale at York and the Cesarewitch at Newmarket and its here at HQ that i will be mainly focusing on as the placepot if hit could be a very tidy payout indeed.

So without further ado lets crack on...

NEWMARKET

RACE 1
WIN - COMMEMORATIVE - 1st @ 14.50
EW - ORDER OF ST GEORGE -
LONG - BARTHOLOMEW FAIR -

SUMMARY : A 1m race for 2 yr olds and this looks hot hot hot , @ 3.8 the field this is as wide open as you would expect as all the big guns are out to play in a field of pure blue bloods.
All bar one are Distance winners and the last two winners of this race produced a Derby Winner , a Derby 2nd ( & St Leger Winner ) so that itself shows that some good sorts are in the line up but for me the one BIG stat factor is this....O'Brien and Hannon have both had either the winner or both had placed ( 2nd n 3rd )  runners in this race for each of the last 3 years and Hannon this year had Hail Claudius in but withdrew ( possibly the ground ) so only the mercurial and often mimicked AoB is left and imo i will be staggered if this doesnt place as he will have sent something v smart here today and his runner ORDER OF ST GEORGE ( Galileo ) is bred right out of the top drawer out of Another Storm which although comes with a strong USA profile is of the line that gives Gone West and Mr Prospector ( Double sire = Max Lineage ) , this will love the trip and will love any of the expected rain , its first two runs were under whelming in truth and it looked to be a cooler for coolmore however with the ground riding soft for its 3rd run this absolutely hosed up being pulled up to a canter and with conditions in favour this has to go on the shortlist.
Mukhayram has a very similar profile and with almost identical splits and improvement forthcoming i would expect this to be in the firing line as well but the two i fear the most are BARTHOLOMEW FAIR and COMMEMORATIVE Both are impeccably bred sorts and both are rather nicely priced so a nice dutch looks on the cards , this should be a cracker to start the day off.

RESULT / MOANS : ( PRO BET - Lay the Fav ) - WIN
                                                                    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 2
WIN - BLUE WALTZ -
EW - ALBASHARAH - 1st @ 6.60
LONG - LA BANDERILLA -

SUMMARY : Todays 2nd race is for 3 yrs plus and for the Fillies only over 1m...which seems fine until you notice there are 19 feckin runners....oh deary me.....this is insanely hard to predict, calculate or reason with...and with not really knowing quite how the ground will go or if the draw will have as big effect as usual there is a lot of guesswork here.
As the 4 year olds have dominated in recent years im going to use that stat to help we wheedle the field down...and this now turns into a 7 runner race...much more manageable ;-) , BLUE WALTZ with Hughes riding for Cumani is a standout and this rapidly improving sort could be anything but after hosing up in her Maiden she then went on to hose up again in a decent Hcap both in Softish ground and both over todays distance ...plus plus plus...this has everything going for her, trip , distance , form , Jockey....ground...crikey ..what more do you want ??!!...
Albasharah and La Banderilla will be the two i pick for cover as both of these look like they have been late season primed for this and both will be fresh and La Banderilla has shown she runs well off a break.

RESULT / MOANS : 
                                                                    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 3
WIN - EPSOM HILL -
EW - CONNECTICUT -
LONG - BATTERSEA -

SUMMARY : The Betfred Stakes now a race over 1m4f for the 3 yr olds and older and with 24 runners this is another that will be staggeringly difficult.
Straight away im just gonna say for me its Connecticut , Battersea , Epsom Hill and Top Tug and in no specific order as i have all four closely rated and i think these should run decent races and hopefully one will keep my PP alive...the pros think otherwise " This looks a cracking contest with Richard Fahey sending a quartet down from North Yorkshire. Ventura Quest may be the best of them but others are preferred. Three run in the Godolphin blue with the unexposed Flag War preferred to Miner's Lamp and Famous Kid. Battersea is still improving and looks a better bet than Connecticut, who has gone up another 5lb since finishing only third in the Melrose at York when behind Adventure Seeker. Stetchworth gets 22lb from stablemate Fire Fighting and could go well upped in distance while Saab Almanal ran a fine race behind Rhombus at Newbury. REWAAYA was given plenty of time to mature after opening her account at Leicester in May. She returned with an effortless victory over this course and distance three weeks ago and, though up a further 9lb, Frankie can steer her to a hat-trick in this as she could be capable of earning some black type before the end of the campaign. "....

RESULT / MOANS : All Unplaced as a few shocks win n place...Placepot burned but cash rich after the first two..so not chasing today , just gonna sit back n enjoy ;)
                                                                    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 4
WIN - BIG EASY - 1st @ 12.50
EW - MOIDORE -
LONG - COMMUNICATOR / NOBLE SILK -

SUMMARY : Does it get any Easier ??..does it fuck...now we have the 34 runner CESAREWITCH a race over 2m2f with low drawn runners given an advantage....with the last three winners returning at 25/1 , 66/1 and last year again at 66/1 this is not a race for favs....so im laying Quick Jack ( Pro Bet ) and gonna go with Noble Silk , Communicator , Big Easy and Moidore without any level of confidence whatsoever...its a cross your fingers n hope time for the PP...heres what the pros say....
 " See And Be Seen beat Big Easy and a number of these in the Cesarewitch Trial here three weeks ago. He only needs one to drop out to get a run but connections of the second will fancy their chances of revenge. Likely favourite Quick Jack looks poor value now considering he's no certainty to confirm Galway running with Swynmor and Digeanta on today's revised terms while Ray Ward usually finds at least one too good. Nearly Caught is unexposed but has been hard to train while Moidore was only 10th last year, behind runner-up Waterclock and Jonny Delta. Lady Kashaan could sneak into the frame at decent odds and Suegioo won the Chester Cup in May but we'll concentrate on the in-form Teak and RHOMBUS. Both have a 4lb penalty to carry but the former is tough and versatile and stays forever. However, we just prefer Ismail Mohammed's fast-improving four-year-old who is already a course winner and will again be partnered by crack apprentice Cam Hardie, still excellent value for his 3lb claim. "...

RESULT / MOANS : 
                                                                    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 5
WIN - BELLA NOUF -
EW - JASMINE BLUE -
LONG - COLOURADA -

SUMMARY : And the day progresses with no let up in pain as we have a nice 17 runner maiden for 2 yr olds....crikey o Reilly...Bill Knights Colourada must go into the PP as the form choice however looking at some of these i would be surprised if it was the winner.
JASMINE BLUE interests me greatly as a filly from Galileo for Fitri Hay , Bella Nouf with a strange Haggas/Hughes combo and thats my three....not much one can really say...

RESULT / MOANS : No run for me here..a bit flat..should win the last tho lol...;/
                                                                    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 6
WIN - PARSLEY - 1st @ 1.09
EW -
LONG -

SUMMARY : And the placepot is rounded off with a farcical 2 runner match...so both go in... although it would be a monster shock if  PARSLEY was to lose this as its miles clear on all known form and ratings and really should have too much and for me that rounds up this fine day....Good Luck.

RESULT / MOANS : Not surprising tho is it haha..a good day overall and im very happy with 4 Winners from 6 Races and some nice prices...
                                                                    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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