Monday, 15 September 2014

Me after the weekend of amazing results and racing...

Saturday, 13 September 2014

QIPCO Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1)



Mega Mega Mega MAX WIN...i will shovel every penny i have and that i can afford to lose in a single hit onto this ...outstanding animal in tip top form , fit as the proverbial butchers dog and racing over what i feel is his optimum trip....different gravy , in fact its in a class of its own....fantastic horse....

Thursday, 11 September 2014

Donny Race Card....

Well Thursdays races were tough as expected and i drew a blank..so im gonna fire up a card and get some accas , place pots and dutches on the brew for friday , get them placed and come back hopefully to some Booms as im out all day in a Golf Comp at Rudding Park.

DONCASTER > Friday <

RACE 1  > Polypipe Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2)

WIN : Ahlan Emarati -
EW : BEACON - 1st @ 10.50
LONG : Mind of Madness -

Summary : Beacon is almost an EW NAP as this is simply miles better over the five than what he has shown over 6 and really ought to be unbeaten over 5f however a poor ride and a poor ( ish run ) run lto have done us a favour as we can now get on at a crazy 11/1 which i think is a tremendous bet ( dont worry that Hughes is not on as he has gone to Sandown for three Hannon rides before nipping to Salisbury for another couple of Hannons ) Forget his last run and he could be as low as 5/2 for this and that last run was a messy affair over 6f..so just put a line thru it and keep the belief that the Beacon will shine brightest of all....

Result : 
                                    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 2 > Ladbrokes Mallard Stakes (Handicap)

WIN : PEARL CASTLE -
EW : Suegioo - 3rd @ 23.0
LONG : Sir Walter Scott -

Summary : This is another of those demanding 1m6f races which really needs a trip specialist and we have a bit of a mix with our selections as Pearl Castle is the Stayer , Suegioo Won the Chester Cup and Sir Walter Scott is a typical Cumani improver that will have been primed for this..so im sure we will get a good run for our money here and with the prices at 12/1 , 12/1 and 25/1 we have some fair value in there to be nibbled at.

Result : 
                                    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 3 > Socialites Electric Cigarettes Doncaster Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2)

WIN : ESTIMATE - ( NAP  + PP Banker ) - 1st @ 2.54
EW : Times Up -
LONG : Clever Cookie -

Summary : Clever Cookie has done really well for connections this term and a big run would be no surprise but i felt all his cards were fully laid out last time and we know all we need to know and i do think it would be a bit of a surprise should he win , in all honesty i will be shocked if anything beats ESTIMATE today as this is undoubtedly the class in this and has all conditions in its favour and is back over the ideal trip and after a few near misses and a blot today should be her day and this has already been in front of Times Up and it will take a Herculean performance or a collapse to see that reversed....Has to be a MAX WIN on Estimate for me.

Result : 
                                    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 4 > John Smith's Extra Smooth May Hill Stakes (Fillies' Group 2) (Str)

WIN : MURAAQABA - ( NB ) - 2nd @ 2.68
EW : N/A
LONG : N/A

Summary : I have this Johnston filly well clear on my ratings , Timeform have her between 4 & 20lb clear of these and this ought to be a formality as she justifies her entries into the Rockfel , Fillies Mile and the Cheverley ( doubling up on this if Estimate blows up ) .

Result : 
                                    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 5 > Coopers Marquees Handicap

WIN : DANZENO - 2nd @ 3.60
EW : Alejandro -
LONG : Shropshire -

Summary : Typical trappy sprint with a lot meeting again for the umpteenth time but the fav Danzeno can confirm his Newcastle win against his elders once again but my old fav Shropshire will be getting my EW coin here...im a lemming with this one im afraid...

Result : 
                                    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 6 > Weatherbys Stallion Book Flying Scotsman Stakes (Listed)

WIN : White Lake - 4th ( Let me down for the PP which paid £156 )
EW : RISEN SUN - 5th
LONG : Sea Wolf -

Summary : This is a wide open race with little to split them and all arrive with some pieces of notable form and this will be a good learning curve for all concerned, from a punting perspective its really a watcher but if pushed i would probably risk a few EW sheckles on the MJ runner as it won nicely fto and will make another bold bid from the front and if allowed enough rope will hang them...and at around 10/1 is worth a go EW.

Result : 
                                    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 7 > Frank Whittle Partnership Classified Stakes

WIN : Enobled - 2nd @ 3.20
EW : Raise Your Gaze - NR
LONG : Zee Zeeley - NR

Summary : Not a lot to go with here as its wide open so im gonna chuck a few pennies EW on the Champs Elysees runner Zee Zeeley and hope shes good enough but im expecting decent double figure odds so it makes the punt worthwhile and as with most i will be setting up some in running trades.

Result : 
                                    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Japan Racing Association Sceptre Stakes (Fillies' Group 3)

Morning World.....
                           Well yesterday didnt quite work out as i had expected but then again it didnt need to , Firstly Reckless Abandon which was yesterdays Nap got beat  ( run on into 2nd having been up with the pace for most of the race ) and although it was a decent enough run it only ran to around 112 which showed little improvement from its last run and this may now be as good  ( rather disappointingly ) as he is...the Winner Meccas Angel was 2nd top rated by me and unfortunately my blindness to the Fav meant that i did no dutch today ;-(....( Won @ 7/1 > 9.6 ) .....However...on the plus side as i was able to get a much larger than expected 1.7 + for a FAP i did indeed lump onto that with just a small portion ( 30% ) on the nose so i did ok in the end , not brilliant but i come away in one piece...

Thanks George Moorey and Simon Cooper for the comments and sorry today i couldnt get you that win...but as you eluded to this was a selection already on your radars....

What do we have for today ? , well there are some nice races at the Donny Leger meeting and today there are two races which make a fair amount of appeal , the first race is the blog titled Sceptre Stakes.

The SCEPTRE STAKES , a race over 7f for 3 yr old + and this years renewal is as good as any ive come across with a field packed full of potential , form and those wanting to re-establish themselves after some underwhelming shows .
A lot here today are again moving up from sprints to try their respective hands at a prize that is a rarity when you have a mark between 85-100.
The top rated is J Wonder on 109 but in truth there is little to separate the top 7 or 8 of these so the rating is of little consequence here today , what is important today is getting hold of a runner that has proven distance form and will like the ground.
One horse i really like in this is BRAGGING but rather annoyingly its again the Fav at around 3.35 which in truth offers little value and is a point  + lower than he really ought to be as i made this 7/2 which is a good bit higher than the Life Tissue of 5/2 and its current price...
Bragging tho' is a horse on a massive upward curve , won easily lto , loves the ground , loves the trip and stays a bit more , travels well , quickens and stays running on so ticks every box on the card..certainly has the scope , shape and conditions to win but that fucking price is giving me the hump....
So i am going to reluctantly look elsewhere for my bet.... ( Hmmpf ) ...Right ..so....moving on what does interest me is firstly EVITA PERON....this is a filly on the up albeit forgiving a no show lto over in France , is lightly raced and comes from a yard that specialize in these filly events as there is no better trainer of fillies than Ralph Beckett and using Godolphins Wedding Ring as a direct line of form representation then Evita has a few lengths in hand of Bragging and yet the price on the two is Bragging @ 3.35 and Evita Peron @ 25.0....this is a hugeeeee difference on two horse that have shown similar levels of form ...so surely that has to be worth a look...??...

Amazing Maria is another that did fuck all over in France and had a run before when the Dunlop yard was struggling to even the horse boxes to arrive on time so all things being equal it wouldnt be pernicious to expect a much improved show but you are hoping for a lot to happen here but @ 32/1 the price is big enough to get involved without a huge outlay , Finally i think we can mention J WONDER as this won well lto and although prone to dropping in n out of form without warning is a rather capable sort on its day and could easily rustle a few feathers...

SUMMARY : ....I will be having a mixture of WIN & FAP dutches on Evita Peron , J Wonder and Amazing Maria , not huge stakes as i feel Bragging could be special but i want to take it on and have some fun..so im keeping it sensible yet i still think its a solid bet/s.

RESULT : 


2nd Summary to follow on shortly....

So here we go after a wee break for a bite to eat and a walk with the dog we look at today's 2nd race and this is the PARK HILL Stakes a race over 1m6f which is a strange trip and is quite often won by those not really ready or good enough for a tilt at a champions race or classic.
 We have a few " interesting " runners here and i think it prudent that we start with SEAL OF APPROVAL a horse that arrives in form that would suggest he has been on a slow burn thru the season and has probably had this as his main aim , three runs thus far that look like it has been a program designed to build and strengthen with its last run in the Geoffrey Freer a pretty decent warm up for this running 3rd and steaming at the finish  ( shorter trip than todays ) all in all i think this has been laid out for the event and will run a big race and the 4.7 is only a fair price.

Melrose Abbey is an interesting filly from the Beckett yard , lightly raced and open to bags of improvement this daughter of Selkirk should enjoy this test and with a couple of victories under her belt she has shown a tenacity that many lack and this could indeed run into a place.

There is another group of 5 horses that will have their parts to play with any capable of winning and this group is Energia Fox , Venus Di Milo , Arabian Comet , Criteria and Silk Sari with probably the most to come from the Botti runner.

SUMMARY : This is a tough race to call with so many with chances and so many variables in play however the fact i can still get Even's the FAP on Seal of Approval is great so i am rowing in with a level return dutch FAP with SOA & Energia Fox.

RESULT : Not even a cheque book and Pen from me today.... ( those old enough will understand this ) 

Wednesday, 10 September 2014

From E.R.I.C Winner


John Smith's Original Scarbrough Stakes (Listed)

Good Morning One n All ,
                                        Well as you may have noticed ive been a bit quiet of late and that is down to a couple of things , firstly i have been busy with my ppl clients and secondly i couldnt be arsed....plus tbf the racing hasnt been that high a standard and to pour for hours over a race to give a summary with no feedback is a thankless task at the best of times but i do find myself with ten mins free this morning before my midweek round of golf so i thought i would share my thoughts and bet on todays Class 1 event the " Scarborough Stakes " a dash over 5f for all ages and a good prize to take down for those that have been aiming high all season with no luck to finally get a payday.
Is this race full of the same ol same ol racing against each other for the umpteenth time ?..well in most that can be said to be true however we do have something potentially very smart and that is RECKLESS ABANDON.

Reckless Abandon is todays current and likely sp Favourite  ( 3.25 ) and this is in part a price made of potential , juvenile form and a promising comeback race.

Firstly lets look at his Juvenile form ,

1st in his maiden.....nothing special...

1st in the NORFOLK Stakes ( Beating Gale Force Ten easily ).

1st in the PRIX ROBERT PAPIN ( Easily accounting for Sir Prancealot ) .

1st in the PRIX MORNAY ( Easily beating George Vancouver ) .

1st in the MIDDLE PARK ( Easily beating Moojahim ) .

So a brilliant 2 yr old campaign ended victorious which earned him a rather long 7 month break which meant he missed a lot of the top early 3 yr old prizes....

So he comes out a 3 yr old and goes straight into sprinting ( which i found odd ) and his first race after the break was the TEMPLE STAKES a well known hardcore sprinting event and he did very well running 3rd and beaten a Head & Head ....a month later he goes into the KINGS STAND ( another hardcore sprint and its now obvious this will be his route ) but this time he runs a bit green , hanging his head and looking awkward and never travelled quite as well eventually beaten 2 & 1/2L by Sole Power into 5th and then a final 3yr old outing saw him go into the Europes premier Sprint the ABBAYE and in all honesty i thought he ran a great race again coming in 5th but only beaten a Nose , 2L , Neck and a head  ( beat home Sole Power who was 6th ) and that ended what i personally thought was a solid year , no Wins but some very good races against some of the best sprinters Europe has seen....

Now we have a rather long and curious 10 month break ( no injury but must have some training issues ) and a move from Clive Cox to Godolphin so after this extended break he comes out and goes into a rather low strung ( compared to previous ) Listed event and this is over 6f...another odd move and not one i liked and although he ran on for third ( beaten by Tropics > Group 3 type < 1/2L and a Nose ) its has to be said that this is probably not his best trip and if you watch the race whilst all these erstwhile sprinters were flat out or whipping between the 4 and 5 pole Reckless was absolutely tanking and looked different class running up the rail with no cover and looking lost in his own world of class he hit a slight flat spot just after the 5 pole when the front three alongside him made moves and it took him 50 yards to re gather some lost momentum and i think with another 75 yards he would have won as he was powering at the finish.
The run that day was i think to around 110 and he will improve both for the run and the drop back to 5f and this class beast will surely be too good for these trusty sorts who by n large are n better than group 3 or Hcaps although most are useful.
So we have a top rated runner in Steps on 110 who is giving weight away all round and Reckless who ran to that easy level over his least effective trip and first time out after a long break , i think Reckless can run to a level between 115-120 at his peak and i think some saying he has lost his shine are talking bollocks , i think this is still learning and growing and will improve from last run , will motor thru the race and quicken up in the final 1f to show his class and the price will look like a gift afterwards...

SUMMARY : MAX WIN for me on Reckless Abandon as i feel this could be different class to these , yes it looks a decent enough event but if Reckless can finally fulfill some of his potential then i think he has upto 20lb in hand of these...yes thats a big statement to make but thats how i feel about it...  

Friday, 29 August 2014

The Six Pack....

Morning Campers....
                              Its been another mundane run o the mill week with little or no action and just a few bets to mention ( to myself )  so far had just three serious bets this week , 1 x 1st , 1 x Max EW that was 2nd and an unplaced although i did get on a 50/1 Winner midweek but only for pennies as it was a " fun bet " so not a great deal to shout about as we enter the transitional period in both racing terms and weather wise as the evenings start to slowly draw in , the air gets a wee bit cooler the racing gets a bit trickier as the ground changes and flirts between firm and soft and those with the big Autumn races as their objectives come n flex their respective muscles.....very interesting few weeks coming up..

Today we have one small race to look at a Class 1 over at Salisbury this evening for the Juveniles and on Saturday we have a great 5 race line up with some very decent looking races indeed...giving us our 6 pack for the weekend...lets go have some fun.

The Friday Race >

18:40 SALISBURY > EBF Stallions Stonehenge Stakes (Listed).
This is a £20k race over 1m for the 2 yr olds and this is a tough test for most but it comes at the right time of the year for them although the Good/Soft ground will stretch them out.
Unsurprisingly we have no distance winners in the field although one has tried and been placed here over this trip and most have good winning form over 7f , the MJ trained Mister Universe comes here with the Highest given rating of 94 but in truth i have no fucking idea where they plucked that number from 2nd then 1st in a couple of 6f Maidens then a well beaten 5th in the Superlative Stakes and doesnt look currently anything like good enough..but it is a MJ horse and for obvious reasons cannot be fully discounted but i dont see it winning here.
Tupi is a similar horse with a similar profile and has been in fine fettle but seems to lack that extra gear and was ridden fully 1f out over 7f in its win but did stay on well enough to gain the victory but does look exposed to anything with a finishing kick and is another overlooked.
So we are left with the two market leaders and the rank outsider and at the current prices of 2.86 / 3.50 and 60.0 this is an obvious dutch with the front two a strong bet and a small % as cover on Groor.
WINTERS MOON showed up well fto and then ran respectably in the Sweet Solario and looks like the step up in trip is needed and looks a very promising sort however i was equally impressed with ELM PARK who ran a corker lto and looks a sure fire stayer with a touch of class admittedly it only won an egg n spoon maiden against patently lesser opposition however he looks a definite improver with tons of ability and the canny trainer will have a good idea of what he has and im pretty sure this son of Phoenix Reach could turn out quite smart.

BET SUMMARY : Dutch as illustrated.

RESULT = Elm Park - 1st @ 3.0
                    Groor      - 2nd @ 42.60
                  Winters Moon - 3rd @ 4.14  ( RFC = £41.13 )


Moving onto Saturday.....

The first of the days Five races is the European Wealth Solario Stakes (Group 3)..and this is another for 2 yr olds but this time over a slightly extended 7f  and for a £30k race its rather annoyingly under represented with just then 6 runners taking part although this could be down to 5 as ELM PARK is also listed as a possible runner here so it will be very interesting if he gets tugged and takes his chance here although imo he has a far lesser chance in this but not without.
Ive a feeling the ground will be on the soft side here so it may pay to take a look at those proven in the ground and looking through i can see that only Future Empire has yet to feel the mud squelch thru its hooves so on that basis i am leaving this out of my equation.
Last years Winner of this race was the imperious and quite brilliant Kingman and there doesn't look to be anything in quite that mould this year but there are some nice sorts on show with the re-opposing COCK O' THE NORTH & AKTABANTAY looking the most likely winners here as Pallister looks quite exposed and Lexington Times just not good enough.

RESULT - 

1.AKTABANTAY 1st @ 3.34
2.

BET SUMMARY > Dutch on the two mentioned although if Elm Park does take a place here then i would be involving that some how , a tricky race this one and Low Stakes only.

The 2nd race of the day is the Betfred Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes (Listed)..this time for 3+ yr olds and its a sprint over 5f and will be run at a furious pace as they all vie for a good racing position as Beverley can catch a few out.
Now old KINGSGATENATIVE still has plenty of juice left in the tank but is quite unpredictable and today for the first time i shall leave him alone ( watch him romp home ) because surely with all things being equal today HAS to be the day that PEARL SECRET finally shines , it has its ideal conditions in a race that will be run to suit against far lesser opposition than he has raced against lately , touted as Europes next great sprinting star and with an endless amount of hyperbole to follow this up this Pearl no longer has any secrets , first run this year saw it piss up in the soft in a conditions race at Nottingham which gave credence to the myth then it was put in as a 10/3 2nd fav for the Palace House but was soundly beaten back down in the field ( although only around 3L away ) by the brilliant Sole Power , then just failed to collar stable mate Hot Streak in the Temple Stakes but it was an improved run and then did not turn a stride in the King Stand after getting lit up and taking a fierce hold all the way through but it must be pointed out that the ground on its two poorest showings was on the firm side of good and that can be used as a valid excuse and now on his favoured softer surface this really ought to be winning today and i will be both disappointed and surprised if it cant...for me this horse is drinking in the last chance saloon...one last Max bet and if it fails its on the life long lay list.

BET SUMMARY > ( NAP ) Max Win bet on PEARL SECRET.

RESULT >
1. PEARL SECRET 1st @ 3.50
2.

The Days 3rd race is a NH event and its the Lord Mildmay Memorial Handicap Chase (Listed).. a race over 2m 5f for 4+ yrs and is a decent event for the time of year over the sticks and is worth £30k so as expected its a competitive affair but we do have a large disparity in both class, ratings and allotted weight but at the same time very few in this can be ruled out with any real conviction .
The last 5 winners of this race have varied in weight between 10-9 and 11-12 giving no clues , the last 5 winners of this have been between 9/2 and 14/1 ( 3 tho in double figures ) which lends considerable weight to leaving out the fav and even the 2nd fav from your assumptions and David Pipe is he most prolific with 2 wins from 5 runs and in this he saddles two runners who are rather oddly both the top and bottom weights , both lto winners and confusingly Tom Scud' has opted to take the bottom weight and they are using O'Farrell on the top weight and not using a conditional....hmmm , elsewhere we have the mighty Welshman Williams who brings 3 to play and all arrive in decent enough form for any of them to have a shout , and the remainder are made up of decent sorts from top yards and the only horse i will discount is Dursey Sound , the mount of AP and the likely Fav and this looks ripe for a MAX LAY if the price is right at anything under 3.60 im going to lay it to bits but ive a feeling this may start off around 4.60 the field..we will see tmrw...

BET SUMMARY >  Im going in with a speculative Dutch on the two Pipe runners as so many come here with a chance its not worth taking any form of real punt in this in fact at small stakes i may look to do a dutch double with one of the other races..the Cock o The North race is a good un...dont really like either so may be worth it for shits n giggles...

RESULT >
1. Houston Dynamo was a Head 2nd @ 6.64.....
2.


4th Race of the day is the Thoroughbred Breeders' Association Atalanta Stakes (Fillies' Group 3)..and this looks a decent field for this £50k race for 3 + yr olds over 1m and quite a few arrive in form and with victories over the distance.
Odeliz comes here 2nd top rated on 106 and although useful im not convinced good enough to be in this playground as she looks one paced and over rated , not far off this level but fully exposed and will be prone to anything with a solid finish and is easily dismissed.
ZIBELINA is a very interesting runner as she has more scope than most and was only just beaten by two rivals lto who are genuine rated 105/107 runners which gives her a solid look but she will have to run right upto that at the minimum and will have to show improvement to win but as the Betfair markets still look like shit i will hold fire on my fullest of views not knowing the correct price ( would expect at least 6/1 so will see if i can sneak some double figures in tmrw )..Zurigha's form is best on a different surface or even the AW and looks a horse punching above her weight is not one i like at all and is readily passed over , FLINTRY could be absolutely anything but is certainly a Filly with promise , 4 runs with a 2nd and 3 Wins indicates a Filly with ability and hails  from the powerful Fabre yard and is owned by the equally powerful Goldolphin team so everything points to a big run and much is expected but im not taking a skinny price about a horse whose form i cannot get a read on...this is where i need IDK to get on the blower and give me a low down on the French Form...at what i will approximate on will be at least 3 x the price i think WATER HOLE has an equal chance , again this has 4 runs with a 2nd and 3 Wins and is another with Distance form and more importantly will love the ground and this is another that could be anything but looks on an upward curve and is progressing , the negatives for this are that it needs to improve as it did beat in its last race the 2nd n 3rd by 2 & 10L they were only rated around 80 at best and that form is way below what will be required today and Water Hole will have to show at least 20lb of improvement to get involved...big ask..and a watch n see from me.
They are surely taking the Piss entering in Nur Jahan as i have more chance on foot than that...so what do we do..a race full of more questions than answers well for me i think a good ol fashioned " Fun EW " is in order on AUDACIA from the Hugo Palmer yard and ridden by Ryan Moore this Sixties Icon filly does in no way represent the class that has previously won this race and looks a quirky type but this also won on soft ground over this 1m trip at the stamina sapping Ponty track lto in such a dominant and convincing style that there is a belief from me that this has a lot more to offer and if on a good day she can reproduce that form ( beating a 2nd/3rd/4th all rated between 90 - 102 ) then she has an outstanding EW chance and could easily run on past beaten horses and with some luck could come good at a nice price.

BET SUMMARY >  EW on AUDACIA at decent odds , may well regress and come stone last but i think it can out run its price here ( 35/65% )

RESULT >
1. FLINTRY Wins @ 2.60 ( Audacia back in 5th beaten 3L Neck n a Head
2.
3.

Finally we have the Win 10,000,000 On Betdaq Colossus Chester Stakes (Listed Handicap)..which just sees a few old hands battle each other again over an uninteresting 1m5f....and im simply going to suggest NOBLE SILK as it only really tired in the last furlong lto over 1m6f and in  a much better race than this and should give a very good account today..poor finale for the days efforts but hey ho...work with whats available....Should be a very interesting day..enjoy and Good Luck.

RESULT >
1. Unplaced as Big Orange WINS......no loss here...
2.

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