Friday, 22 August 2014

Time for Reflection...

Evening All ,
                   Well yesterday by n large went very well , as i told you the Lowther lay between 4 horses only and those 4 come home 1st/2nd/3rd and 5th so its fair to say i got that call right then i called Arabian Comet my EW Nap and that was just denied by a Nose by its stablemate but was a good 2nd and i also had my horse running which nearly held on but got tired in the dying strides but still managed a 3rd @ 28.90...all good stuff...in between all this i had staked all this weeks winnings into Taghrooda for an easy payday and even tho it traded at 1.02 it got beat a neck by Tapestry...why i didnt lay cover in ??..why didnt it win ??...well i have my own thoughts on this but ultimately the good thing rolled me over and tucked me in...and we are back to scratch..no cash loss but all this weeks good work undone in a moment...thats racing....just cant win em all....

Time to Get it on and get some full on PRO action going...so im gonna get a massive card done for York for Friday and smash it to bits....

YORK PRO CARD >>>>

RACE 1 >
Traditional big field York Hcap to start the day off , 20 runners over 1m4f....where to start with this ? ...Well PEARL CASTLE has to come into the reckoning as a good looking CD winner that arrives in good form with 2 runs at YORK sandwiched by Group 1 hurdle events over 2m , the runs at York resulted in a 1st and a 4th both over this trip of 1m4f and both were good runs and racing off this mark should be no problem and this will be in the mix up gteed and the current 12/1 looks a fair price without being outstanding ( i wanted 16/1 and hoped for 20/1 ) ...maybe it will drift ??...i will keep my powder dry until nearer the time.

Dolphin Village has been in remarkable form of late rattling up some nice wins in some good races but is now racing off a career high mark after being raised over 20LB in the last 12 months or so and will have to find even more to get involved here.

Then we have SATELLITE a horse spoken of to me in the very highest order pre its first run and it duly bolted up , it ran green and was beaten into 4th in a good looking Hcap on its 2nd run but getting beat by Cannock Chase is no hardship and then it ran a short head 2nd when it should have won before doing nothing last time out ( lto ) , now i am prepared to give this another chance but only if its dutched with something else as my confidence is not high after the last run.

Finally we have CHANCERY , last years winner and although hes not been in that form this year he has been thereabouts with some decent enough placed form and the vibes from the yard are strong and this comes here with high hopes.

WIN - PEARL CASTLE - 4th @ 13.50
EW - SATELLITE -
LONGSHOT - CHANCERY -

                                          ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 2 >>
Now we have a 2m Group 2 and this looks an absolute crackerjack of a race with some very tasty sorts indeed and nothing can be entirely ruled out.
CAVALRYMAN comes here in fine fettle having seen off Ahzeemah , Brown Panther , Hillstar and Pethers Moon in his last couple of races and although now 8 seems to be in as good form as hes ever been and  has to go on the shortlist.
ESTIMATE's run lto was simply too bad to be true and a much closer finish will be expected , i could find no reason for the poor and lackluster run lto and without the results from the scope i can offer no more but i will be mighty surprised if a much improved run is not forthcoming and with Ryan Moore doing the steering the 5.60 looks a very good EW bet.
Finally i think we should add in PALE MIMOSA from the all conquering Weld yard a horse not really tried at the trip ( has run before ) but has always shown a willing attitude in his runs and stays well and looks to be a major player against the tried n trusted.

WIN - CAVALRYMAN - 4th
EW - ESTIMATE - 2nd @ 6.66
LONGSHOT - PALE MIMOSA  - 1st @ 3.05

                                          ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 3 >>>
A listed 7f race now for the older brigade sees quite a few old rivals eyeball each other but its one of the seasonal debutantes that catches the eye and that is CABLE BAY from the Hills yard ( Charlie ) not seen out since last Oct when running 2nd to War Command ( 117 ) but was a fast improving sort and if he has trained on would be a near certainty for a place here and would have strong win claims however an awful lot must be taken on trust , that said i think the 14/1 is a fair price and is worth a few sheckles to find out,
The other concern is that in the last 10 years we have only seen one winner return in double digits....but then again this year its currently 8/1 the field so its a fair guess that a stat waiting to be broken...Top Notch Tonto is not a certain starter after that brilliant run yesterday but if he does and can sustain that form then he wins...

ABSOLUTELY SO is sure to be primed for a big run and has held its form very well  but in a race that could throw up any number of surprises i am going to row in with the two highest rated 3 yr olds ERTIJAAL and MUSHIR both of whom are distance winners , both arrive in peak form and both look to be improving and come on very reasonable marks and the 12/1 & 15/1 makes for a decent Dutch.

In a wide open contest its a tough call finding a direct line into anything as so many a case can be made...

WIN - ABSOLUTELY SO - 1st @ 7.40
EW -  MUSHIR -
LONGSHOT - ERTIJAAL -

                                          ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 4 >>>>

The NUNTHORPE and the days biggest race with 15 runners charging thru a mind boggling 5f and we simply have to start with SOLE POWER who was an unlucky 3rd last year and 7th the year before however he was against Ortensia that year and that was insanely quick.....he loves the ground , loves the track ( a CD winner )  and loves the trip  ( multiple distance winner ) he will get a good toe thru this race and his customary late charge will be seen once again and it will take a performance of incredible speed and endurance to beat him today,....so what can...
In truth i think there are only a couple that have the ability to hold on or outwit the old fox and one of those is last years place and race specialist and that is the speedball that is SHEA SHEA who was away slow lto and ran a bit rusty and although you could argue he comes here uncoiled there is also every reason to expect that MDK will have him 100% ready to rock n roll  and if anyone can beat the Power then this is it..

Elsewhere we have pretenders to the sprint crown in HOT STREAK a horse that looked a sure fire champion elect until running as flat as a wooden wheel lto and a watching brief must be respected now but this can win if in the right fram of mind...

Pearl Secret has been disappointing but has tons of ability , the old guard of Borderlescott will ensure a rocket powered pace and with a field packed full of erstwhile handicappers all gteeing a solid and reliable race there is little to  suggest anything can win.

WIN - SOLE POWER - ( NAP ) - 1st @ 4.11
EW - SHEA SHEA -
LONGSHOT - HOT STREAK -

                                          ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 5 >>>>>
The CONVIVIAL one of both Yorks and the UK's leading maiden races and one that has thrown up many a star turn , 9 of the 16 arrive with differing levels of form and it will take a dynamite performance from one of the newcomers to win against that.

One of the newcomers tho comes on the back of some very solid info and reports and that is the Haggas trained FOREIGN DIPLOMAT a horse ive been led to believe is right out of the top drawer and has had this as his main aim all season with a push for the back end races as he is currently in all the big sales race and the yearling sales events right upto and including the Dewhurst...and Haggas is not a man to waste ink...

Of those that have run i see ACASTER MALABIS and SWOT as the big two and if they push on they should have this race to themselves ..unless the Diplomat gets immunity...

WIN -  ACASTER MALABIS -
EW - FOREIGN DIPLOMAT - 3rd @ 9.20 ( This pleases me greatly )
LONGSHOT - SWOT -

                                          ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 6 >>>>>>

And we round the day off with very tough looking 15 runner 1m Hcap which looks wide open , MAVERICK WAVE , EXTREMITY & HALATION look to be the class trio in a strong line up and with some very tasty prices knocking about a dutch is an easy decision after a long day.

1.MAVERICK WAVE - NON RUNNER ( place pot money carries to the Fav ) 
2.EXTREMITY - 2nd @ 5.06 ( Hit 1.20 )
3.HALATION -

**PLACE POT LANDED 2 x £1 LINES = £2 (200% or 2 x Payout )...lets hope its at least in three figures....( Need £56 to break even )..........Placepot £3,065.20 x 2 = BOOOOM !!!

SUMMARY : A lot of dutches looks the order for today with so many race being uber tight , SOLE POWER would be my NAP and ACASTER MALABIS my NB , but i would say today is probably the toughest day of the week for punting and my main advice would be , do the dutches , keep stakes sensible and have a great day.

Wednesday, 20 August 2014

Lowther , Galtres and the Oaks...

Evening All ,
                      Well yesterday was a good day overall and for many reasons i was a mighty happy chappy and Day 1 of the Ebor festival didnt disappoint as we had a good mix of class on show which was topped by the wonderful and power packed run of Australia a true champion and we now look upon Day 2 and we should witness the female equivalent of Australia in the shape of Tahgrooda a filly with limitless potential and another that rates a true superstar.

3 Races for me to look at today ,

Race 1 > The Lowther , A race for precocious 2 yr olds that rarely break sweat as a 3 yr old....Look for something good now, a horse at their peak because come Dec their racing career will be pretty much over....
This will turn into a 4 runner race which will lay between , ANTHEM ALEXANDER , Tiggy Wiggy , CURSORY GLANCE and Sulaalaat with not much splitting the quad and as i think both Cursory Glance and Tiggy Wiggy will make good 3 yr olds im gonna say the Dutch on the other two is the bet.

Race 2 > The Yorkshire OAKS and this race is all about TAGHROODA.( NAP ) ....the best filly probably since Pebbles and a mile ahead of these...this wins barring any accident..different Gravy..empty every bank account you have and pile it in...shitty odds but its free money so dont turn your nose up....

Race 3 > The Galtres Stakes...ARABIAN COMET ..EW...super horse , super bet...

And thats it..no massive summary tonight as im tired and quite frankly i cant be bothered...

Tuesday, 19 August 2014

York > EBOR <

Afternoon All ,
                     Well its almost the start of my local tracks big week , its York and the Ebor festival and Day 1 sees us open up with 2 Big races which although not thorough Group 1's really ought to be imo and will be getting some cover from me and we have one of the seasons hottest 2 yr old races in the shape of the Acomb over 7 blisteringly fast furlongs...

As i have repeatedly stated there are not many courses where the phrase " Horses for courses " is more apt as this superb venue does often suit a particular running style and a good front runner as its quite hard to win from " off the pace " here coming down the long stretch off a bend and even more so if the ground comes up soft , this isnt completely correct as a lot win from off the pace but the point is if you have a good quality front runner then it has an above average chance of winning here as opposed to say Ripon , Newbury or Bath...and quite often CD winners that are out of form will rediscover their form for York...Ancient Cross is a typical York Horse , and look out for the Northern Trainers , Easterby , Fahey et al as they like to land a coup or two here.....

So lets take a look at todays three focus races ....

In the 13:55 i have been told to " Get On " KIMBERELLA as the team are awaiting compensation as they were expecting a bigger run lto although tbf it ran a really honest race in 7th beaten less than 2L in a huge bunched finish at Ripon and that was a pretty classy race for the track so at decent odds this i have been told is a cracking EW bet.....

Now onto the serious stuff...

RACE 1 > The ACOMB Stakes , a race that has been won in recent years by some very smart types like Kings Best , Hemingway , Fast Company and Dundonnell and we have a few likely types here today with all the big guns coming out to play and this looks a very tricky race at first glance.

Now i am only going to row in with previous distance winners as you have in a race like this a gtee of stamina which will be a big plus here and this brings the field down to a more manageable 7 runners.

1. BASATEEN > Won its maiden in good style and with considerable ease ( 1m22 ) and is highly thought of and is already entered into all the seasons leading back end 2 yr old races over 7f & 1m including the Racing Post and the Dewhurst so must be high up in the pecking order and this good looking son of Teofolio is sure to be a major player.

2. CHADIC > This already has a rating of 100 which imo is too high as this has done little to justify it , already looking exposed and with race times giving it around 5L to find just to get competitive i will happily write this off however...its an  " MJ " horse so could easily run an amazing race and win by 6L.....highly unlikely to a degree off 99% but not beyond the realms...but there isnt a realm known to me that would allow me to put any of my hard earned on this although Christian Emmanuel may well have a bash.....

3. DUTCH CONNECTION > This is another i really quite like , not hit the heights form wise of a few others and doesn't have the race times to back up any strong feelings however this has a ton of scope and improvement is guaranteed as lto he won pretty much as he liked and was not pushed at all so not a lot can be taken from that other than he will be a lot better now in a faster run race and is a major player in my book , my only provisio is that the Dutch Art progeny have been found wanting in group level overall and that statistic is tending to hold considerable water currently.

4. JAMAICA > Another with a similar profile to Dutch Connection and this comes from the all conquering and all powerful Aiden O'Brien yard over the Orish sea , in two runs it has so far failed to set the world alight but won as it liked last time and basically coasted home giving us little info to work on, its a traditional Magnier Galileo progeny and could be absolutely anything...

5. MEDRANO > This is an ok sort but has proven to be consistently slow even when winning which says more about the opposition than him has an awful lot to find to get involved and cant really be considered at all.

6. PRINCE GAGARIN > A lovely looking sort from the now in form Ed Dunlop yard and half or co owned by his father John and this son of Dubawi has done nothing wrong and has clocked some above average fractions but still has a few lb to find to really be involved but is another with a ton of scope and could easily improve enough to take a hand in the finish and the booking of Ryan Moore would suggest they mean business today and has to go on the short list.

7. SALATEEN > Finally we come to Nos 7 in the distance list but no hurrahs from here as this has to improve more than most just to reach the level already acquired by some here and this would be a shock should this win today.

SUMMARY : A tough looking affair that looks weaker at 2nd and 3rd glance with most of the proven winners running slow or average times , all have improvement to come but there is a big gap between top n bottom on my figures and i think both Misleading and Growl can get involved against their peers but for me the winner is BASATEEN , quickest by far and with good solid fractions this will imo take all the beating and the current 3.20 looks very fair , Jamaica will be interesting but ultimately i feel this is going to be set up nicely for Basateen to race up with the pace before pushing on although Growl will get every effort from Hughes to beat Hanaghan who is riding for his retainer and not his boss....WIN bet on Basateen for me.

                                                 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 2

Great Voltigeur Stakes 

...An excellent race with an excellent pedigree but a shit pot for Favourites with the winners price range varying between 5/4 and 28/1 with an awful lot of double figure winners come through.
And this year we will all be looking at KINGSTON HILL....has it still got its thirst for racing ? , is it better now than at 2 ? , how good can he be or has he peaked and become tripless ?....lots of questions to answer and as much as i love the beast i cant get over enthusiastic about a horse i have no confidence in....Can it win ?..Yes...Will it Win ?...probably...but @ around 6/4 im going to look elsewhere.

SNOW SKY has to go on the short list after a great win in the Gordon Stakes beating Windshear and will be well primed for the biggest of runs , likes the ground, loves the trip , stays at pace and can quicken and battle...this has all the right ingredients to be a winner and this son of Nayef is only just starting to come to himself and is still improving , i like this and i think it will run a big race and at 8/1 looks to be a cracking EW bet...not far off a bet to nothing...

POSTPONED won well last time out but that run was not as good as its previous effort when beaten into third in the Hampton in what looks a very tough race with a good portion of class and is another just starting the upwards curve of improvement and is another to be feared and respected...def has a winning chance.

Finally we have GRANDDUKEOFTUSCANY and i say finally as its my belief that the remainder are all held on form either literal or lateral and will do well to get competitive at any stage and this raider from the O'Brien yard is yet another one of his " off the production " Galileo colts that has won a egg n spoon maiden and now goes straight for the jugular and tbh the manner in which it had won its maiden made many sit up and take notice and i for one wouldnt be surprised to see this turn into something a wee bit special , but on the premise of proven ability it has an awful lot of improving to do and the 6/1 just isnt enough to get me salivating.

SUMMARY : We have the shown , proven and tested class of Kingston Hill against the possibility of Granddukeoftuscany  , the curiosity of Postponed and the expected improvement of Snow Sky in what will make a fascinating renewal but the 6/4 on Kingston Hill is too low as in all honesty i made this 7/2 the field so that price looks insane to me...is it worth a Max Lay ?...well in this instance i dont think so as i think there are greater rewards to be had elsewhere , thats not to say its a bad bet because it isnt i just think the risk reward ratio is in our favour here and a solid dutch against the fav pays a far higher dividend , in fact the 3 way dutch on those i have highlighted pays just over 4/1 at current odds ( expect movement ) and looks a much better bet than getting 4/6 laying the Jolly...For me the bet is the Dutch.
                                                     ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Finally..

RACE 3

Juddmonte International Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1)

...........Yes its the days BIG ONE and it looks another cracking renewal that has seen past Victors include the magnificent Frankel , Sea The Stars and Authorized and this years renewal has a runner with imo the same pedigree and class as those luminaries listed and that horse is AUSTRALIA the 2nd best horse in Europe right now and the best over 1m4f , i wont say " the best over 1m2f " as we wont know that until Kingman has tried but is certainly the best by a country mile that has made an attempt at the trip , this animal just ooozes class and looks the real deal and although both he and Kingman were surprisingly turned over in an oddly run Guineas its class has shone through since that day and i will be shocked beyond shocked if this doesnt win as it likes and i think the 1.64 is an absolute steal as i make it 1.25 as its that far ahead....i just think defeat is unimaginable....and its a wallet emptying , beg , borrow and Steal MAX WIN bet for me.

Results to follow after each race with review and excuse laden summaries....;-/


RESULTS :

RACE 1 : BLAINE scores for York specialist handler Kevin Ryan....1-0 to the shrewdies ( former Course winner when winning the Gimcrack ) ...Kimberella just not good enough although ran well enough but not a place.

RACE 2 : DUTCH CONNECTION belies the " Dutch Art Stats " and Wins really well @ 27.50 , i did have a little saver on it but unfortunately i only put enough on to break even as Basateen could only manage third after travelling well in the van for most as expected but just couldnt quicken on in the final 1f...not a bad result for me but neither was it what i really expected or wanted.....but i was really keen on this last n0ight and kinda talked myself out of it..;-(...shame on me...

RACE 3 :  POSTPONED WINS ;-)....@ 3.51  with Snow Sky 2nd and well clear of the field and even Kingston Hill who was a non runner would have struggled to get to grips with these in this form imo as this Winner won well and looks very good indeed and the 2nd running on ground not really liked did very well and will be a major player in the St Leger....But ultimately all that counts is the fact i now have a nice jingle jangle of change in my pocket ;-)...

RACE 4 : AUSTRALIA easily WINS @ 1.65 beating two horses rated 128 and now must surely be given a rating in the 130's maybe even as high as 134 imo....always coasting , quickened and stayed on very strong to see off the very good run by The Great Gatsby who was around a lengthening 2-3L away in 2nd...Fantastic run and that rounds off a cracking day for me.

Saturday, 16 August 2014

Saturday Treble...

Morning All ,
                   Well yesterday was a very poor day with the race at Deauville turning into a farce and Dangerous Moonlite running an odd race , odd in the sense it didnt try to make all in a sustainable fashion as it tore off in front at what looked like a mad early pace only to completely empty at the 2f pole and coming last...disappointed..very....confused as to the run...very....i cant blame the ground , would like to blame the ride but you know..thats horse racing..you can do all the studying you want but you still need things to go your way on the track...its like playing poker in some respects....your in a tourney , your card dead and you bide your time..then BooM you get dealt A/A....you play it right the flop is a good looking 2/3/4 so now you have more in your favour , you bet , you get raised , you go ALL IN you get called...your opponent flips K/K...you smile as you know this is yours......turn card is a J and helps no one  and your way in front....the river comes and its a .............King....and you lose....the miracle river card turns up...thats life folks....Horse racing is not an exact science and suffers from so many variables that at times you may well think its almost an impossible task but long term if you stick to what you do best , stay on track then much like the A/A you will be a long term winner.

So what do we have for today  ? , Well have a fun card at Perth , a Nice Looking Card at Donny , an Interesting day at Chester , a traditional HQ card and a very nice looking card for Ripon however todays focus will be on three ..yes THREE races at NEWBURY......

Todays first race in focus is the 4 runner Washington Singer Stakes over 7f for 2 yr olds which has been previously won by a couple of smart sorts in Somewhat and Just the Judge so the race resonates with the trainers , a brief glance and you would think this is a tight affair with all looking to have some ok form but look deeper and you can see that the market is indeed correct and this is probably a two horse race which will need a run of around 102-105 to win and although Diaz is currently rated 96 i firstly dont think he has much more to offer and secondly i feel that rating is wrong by around 9lbs so is quickly dismissed , Carry on Deryck however is a very hard horse to assess as this son of Halling Won its maiden in fine style ( first time out ) but was unfancied at 25/1 to do so but bellied those odds and any thoughts of greenness as it got chopped for room at several points and at just 1f out had to drop out to last of 9 as it got cramped and checked but then just 150 yards out switched right and made a last gasp run up the outer to win by a going away 3/4L....signs of a very smart horse indeed and stamina wont be an issue as its a Halling and they can stay even at 2 and i think making it 11/1 in a 3 runner field is a piss take...why ? because its trained by the unfashionable S Kirk..well thats just bollocks imo if this was trained by Hannon it would be Evens Favourite!!...and the current 4.0+ for a place 1-2 in a 4 runner race is imo HUGE.....im just not that bothered about the winner when i simply cant resist having a go at this Win and Place 35/65....
For those of you looking for the winner in this...i would have to say realistically its HAWKESBURY a proven trip winner that wont mind the ground and looks quite classy...but at just over Even Money its a no brainer imo....and when you look at the fap odds on the jollies it Screams PPL !!!!!!!.......this is crying out to be had....two cracking options....WIN OR LOSE THE PPL LOOKS JUST A GREAT BET.

Next on the agenda is the 1m5f GEOFFREY FREER Stakes a Class 1 for 3+ yr olds and this looks a good renewal , Pethers Moon is a strange beast but not without ability who runs quite often i snatches which was shown to effect lto when looking a beaten horse 3f out but then found some gusto to challenge the leaders 2f out and take the lead at the 1f pole and win beating the returning Enke who had himself looked rusty a good run but not form that takes your breath away but he did show in the Mallard ( 1m6f ) that he stays albeit at one pace but the run before when 3rd in the Prince of Wales ( 1m4f ) behind the Gallant oldboy Cavalryman and Hillstar was a good effort and must come into the reckoning but i feel it will find one or two just too good today and i also think CAFE SOCIETY can reverse latest running and overhaul Pethers Moon over this longer trip as it was gaining ground all the time lto when just 3rd but only beaten a diminishing 2L and this son of stayer Motivator has been running on at the end of all his recent outings suggesting this step up in trip is just what he needs and i think the current 16/1 is a very fair price and looks to me to be an above average EW bet.
Of the others we have the improving Somewhat , the returning Willing Foe , Red Cadeaux now Ed Dunlop has started firing in the winners to make this a good race and reasonably open , sit back , enjoy and get on something in double figures.

Finally we have the HUNGERFORD Stakes over 7f and again for 3 yrs and older and this is a small field event with just the 6 runners now that disappointingly Es Que Love has been ruled out and this looks a very tight race indeed with nothing more than a couple of pound separating the main runners and the warm Fav Gregorian has it all to prove after flopping miserably across the channel last week and at around 2/1 i will make this my LOTD . Yes it won this race last year , Yes it has form this season that entitles it to win but its such an in/out performer that i feel its worth taking on with some very solid opposition in the shape of the Hannon pair Producer and Professor plus we have the solid Chill the Kite and the Exciting Breton Rock and this means you have an awful lot in your favour so for me its a no brainer...LAY THAT FAV.

Bet Summary : 1 x PPL , 1 x EW and 1 x Max Lay and a EW Double at good odds on Deryck / Cafe Society....should be a fun day and plenty of other action to keep ya ticking over.

RESULTS & EXCUSES : 

RACE 1 : Diaz set the pace and got burned up , Deryck is a nice sort but not at this level and Hawkesbury ran no sort of race whatsoever and even tho beaten still looks the best horse in the race..but will have to learn to settle ...PPL LOST as mine were 3rd/4th and the win LOST as Hawkesbury was 2nd....Not a great start...

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (4)Belardo (IRE)R Varian29-1Andrea Atzeni5/4f
Tracked leading pair, went 2nd over 2f out, led over 1f out, pushed out and stayed on strongly final furlong, easily opened 6/4 £1200-£800 £600-£400 £413-£300 £375-£300
2nd (3)HawkesburyC Appleby29-1William Buick13/8
Steadied start, took keen hold and held up 4th, switched right to near side over 2f out, headway when hung badly right and raced awkwardly from over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, no impression and eased final 100 yards opened 5/4 £600-£400 £1100-£800
3rd (2)2Diaz (IRE)M Johnston29-1 hJ Fanning6/1
Led and set even pace, ridden and headed over 1f out, no impression when weakened into 3rd inside final furlong opened 8/1
4th (1)½Carry On DeryckS Kirk29-1L P Keniry8/1
Tracked leader until pushed along over 2f out, soon outpaced, plugged on pressing for well held 3rd

RACE 2 : Cafe Society was unplaced...however @ 15.20 it traded as low as 4.0 for a decent profit and looked right up until the last 50 or so yards it was def gonna place and at one stage a win looked on the cards...but ultimately it just didnt have enough in the tank to fend off the late charges coming home 4th or 5th...or 7th even...

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (7)Seismos (IRE)M Botti69-4Martin Harley11/1
Tracked leaders, went 2nd 9f out until pushed along over 3f out, chased leaders but outpaced well over 1f out, rallied inside final furlong, led close home
2nd (3)nkWilling Foe (USA)Saeed bin Suroor79-4James Doyle7/1
Tracked leading pair, went 2nd over 3f out, led 2f out, ridden over 1f out, strongly pressed and stayed on inside final furlong, headed and not pace of winner close home
3rd (9)110 Seal Of ApprovalJ R Fanshawe59-1 hG Baker6/1
Slowly into stride, last pair dropped to rear 10f out, headway on wide outside over 1f out, ridden and stayed on strongly inside final furlong, snatched 3rd post, not reach leading pair opened 11/2 £3000-£500(x3)
4th (2)nseRed CadeauxE A L Dunlop89-4G Mosse7/1
Mid-division, headway on inside tracking leaders over 3f out, squeezed through into 2nd over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, outpaced into 3rd close home, lost 3rd post opened 6/1 £1800-£300
5th (8)111 Somewhat (USA)M Johnston38-7J Fanning5/1
Led, ridden and headed 2f out, chased leader until over 1f out, no extra and dropped to 4th inside final furlong, weakened into 5th final 75 yards opened 6/1
6th (10)nseRawaki (IRE)A M Balding69-4L P Keniry16/1
Held up towards rear, not clear run and switched left over 2f out, switched right inside final 2f, stayed on well in closing stages, never going pace to challenge opened 20/1
7th (11)Cafe SocietyD M Simcock49-4Jim Crowley12/1
Tracked leader until 9f out, tracked leaders, ridden and not quicken when hung left over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong opened 14/1

RACE 3 : Finally ..something to cheer about in good style as my MAX LAY on Gregorian paid off ...but only just as Breton Rock WON in virtually its last stride....PHEW!!....but thankfully an inch is all you need....;-))...

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (6)Breton Rock (IRE)D M Simcock49-5Martin Lane3/1
Held up tracking leaders, 3rd travelling well over 2f out, chased leader approaching final furlong, upsides and strong challenge inside final furlong, ran on gamely to lead last stride opened 7/2
2nd (2)s.hGregorian (IRE)J H M Gosden59-5William Buick13/8f
Tracked leaders, went 2nd over 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden and strongly pressed inside final furlong, ran on gamely, headed last stride opened 2/1 £900-£400 £1000-£500(x2) £800-£400 £650-£400 £488-£300

Friday, 15 August 2014

Guillame D'ornano Stakes (Group 2)

Quick Post and a very lite summary as WESTERN HYMN holds a couple in this small field quite comfortably on recent form and has current/historical form that is head and shoulders clear of these , admittedly a couple of the french runners look decent enough with PRINCE GIBRALTAR looking the one that will give the most problems as it does have good placed form but seems to consistently find one too good , the Dutch with these pays around 1.25 and i think that is as good a bet as you will ever come across...it looks almost bullet proof and is my " Pro Bet " , for the punt i would say Western Hymn is the answer....But im on the Dutch , big stake required , big balls not needed...easy money imo..GL >


RESULT : Well this was a costly fail as the best my two could do was 3rd/4th and tbh they were thrashed by the impressive Gallo Chop...( see pic )....oh well heres hoping Dangerous Moonlite can make me smile....

Thursday, 14 August 2014

St Hugh's Stakes (Fillies' Listed)

Well Good Afternoon ,
                                     Yesterday's post didnt happen unfortunately and i say unfortunately as i had done a nice long summary on why Yuften ( Evens Fav ) should be taken on and why i fancied Captain Cat ( 1st @ 7.80 ) to Win but i got rather delayed and ended up binning the unfinished post and to rub salt in i also forgot to both do the Lay or Back the Winner....sigh...one of those days.....so what do we have on Friday ?  , well we have this rather interesting Listed event for 2 yr olds which contains some rather speedy and precocious types , i do normally leave these events for my compadre Senor Coote ( HCE ) however i feel like having a stab with this as its the first decent race this week and i need a warmer for the weekend...

The most recent winners of this event have mostly been out n out speed balls and surprisingly this has been a rough race for favourites so we have a stat clash which is never a good thing.

Juvenile maestro Richard Hannon  ( now Jnr ) has only won this event once in the last 15 years or so and that was with a second string ridden by dobbs ( thats not that unusual tbh )  and i dont think he is that bothered per se about this race however he does seem to have a very strong hand this year so maybe Hannon Jnr is wanting to re-write the history books and turn this into one of his own and move away from his famous fathers pedigree ( hes doing great on his own in truth ) , he has 3 runners in this with the weakest probably Spirit of Xian whose form figures leave a bit to be desired although highly tried has generally been found wanting and im a little surprised its in this..must be showing a hell of a lot at home...then we have PARSLEY now this def has both pace and ability and cannot be totally ruled out although i would be a little surprised if this won today but has clocked good enough speed figures to certainly get involved , the third runner from the yard is one i like very much and that is DANGEROUS MOONLITE , a very fast daughter of Acclamation and one that is closely related to speed merchant Kingsgate Native and can count on the uber quick Dayjur as a family tree descendant so has plenty of pace in her pedigree and this lto come home first in a very quick time indeed and looks to be coming on leaps and bounds and is progressing at a rapid rate of knots from race to race and i think the run in the Queen Mary come a bit too early for her as she raced too freely , got lit up and then weakened away getting beat 7L in the end but that was sandwiched between two good wins , she had very little to beat lto and it was only a small 3 runner race however these affairs can often prove tactically hard and there is often a false pace made with poor core fractions but this wasnt the case here as it set its stall out early taking the lead on the rail and just lengthened away and quickening up like a very good horse and the time was bloody good as were the fractions in truth and with more to come this could prove to be a real class act in all the back end events for her peer group and then hopefully she will push on to make a nice 3 yr old although thats not an exact science and imi moving away from the point and this summary , this horse will imo take all the beating on what she has shown thus far and what she promises but she wont have it all her own way as some good fillies are lining up to take her on.
With most of this field either held by certain lines of form ( a lot with Parsley ) or looking to be just out n out 6f types i would say the most danger will arise from Al Farrej or possibly Explosive Lady both of whom look to have a touch of class and will be best positioned to take advantage of any weakness shown by DM.

BET SUMMARY : With both Dangerous Moonlite and Explosive Lady towards the top of the betting at 5.0 i would say this makes for a very attractive dutch and for the fearless ( Richard Hurd ) then the 22/1 ++ on Al Fareej looks a cracking EW bet or a FAP in truth but my heart and figures suggest to me that this race belongs to DANGEROUS MOONLITE ( Win Bet for me ) .

RESULT : Dangerous Moonlite was unplaced and faded badly fully 2f out.....thankfully i did get my IR lay matched at 2.72 so i broke even and i had a cheeky place ( FAP ) on AL FARREJ which ran well to get 2nd ( after leading ) @ 23.70.....not the result i wanted but in the end i made a profit...Poor Advice none the less.....

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