Friday, 10 June 2011

For the WILLOW WARBLER...

As previously discussed , with a bank of say just £500 today you should make these moves ( that will follow ) if you are short on time and have a full time job etc..
Trading these low rated horses allows you to pretty much gtee a green , obviously this isnt nailed on and nothing is for sure but these , if they go wrong offer a very low liability so the pressure on your account is minimal, we will try this for 1 week and see how we get on...

Account Balance £500.00

Bet Nos 1 . York 14-10
Here i would LAY CHURCH MUSIC @ 3.0 for £250 and look to trade out @ 3.45 for £210 as shown below...
As you can see once this trade has been made you will G'tee a profit of at least £13+.
Now you might scream but what if it leads from the off and never gets caught and the price doesnt get higher!!?? , good point, this does sometimes happen but it is unlikely in a race of this nature , however you could using , say fairbot leave an in running back bet in at say 2.5 for £250 to minimise any potential losses , but this is counter productive imo ( easy for me to say as im here all day watching and trading ad hoc ! ).
You also ask for a smaller return better Gtee of a match , say 3.25....
This would Gtee you £6.25 or £25 , still a very modest 1.1% return or 5% if the Fav loses...thinik of this in an accumulative  fashion , if you walked into a bank with £500 and they said we will  give you compounding interest at the rate of 1% per day you  would and should rip there hands off right? , yeah of course , thats pretty much all we are trying to do here.
So to summarise , You can go High risk ( 3.45 ) or Low risk ( 3.25 ) with no further trades , these are the plays for Bet Nos 1.
RESULT - 1st - Hit 7.8 in running albeit for only £7 , but traded for any amount you wanted upto 5.0, this won very easily...Nice Horse.OUTCOME - Hit profit trigger for both High and Low risk.
Profit on this is ( HR ) £13-68  and ( LR ) £6.25

Bet Nos 2 . York 15-50
This is a BTL ( Back to Lay )
This means you Back a horse at one price knowing what its normal running style is and look to trade off in the run , so i have nailed the following Trade on Articality...
Backing it for £110 @ 3.85 and Trading off in running at 3.25 , if it runs its usual race and is up with the pace as normal this will def get matched....if it runs a stinker you lose £110 , thats the risk im afraid , if i was watching this live ( which i will be ) i would look to trade out at around 5.0 if it was paddling ( thats what i do with my managed funds for members )...
This should Gtee a profit of either £9.28 or £23.80...( High Risk ) or You could go Low risk and set the trigger for 3.65 which would return you £7 or £9....your choice on how you want to manage this ( for the sake of the experiment all bets will be high risk but both results will be given ).
**Additional Notes , as you can see from the Pic im about to post , arcticality has been backed into a low of 2.48 this morning....2point fucking 8...who would do that, its crazy , its early price of 5.5 would have been incred ( even i missed that )....But all of these have shown huge swings from this morning.

RESULT - Articality drifted out to 6.2 pre race!!!..crazy scenes, obv something was a miss or it looked a dog in the ring??!! , whatever the reasons it still hit 2.84 in running, however between 2.84 - 3.8 it was only matched for a combined total of a few hundred.
This then ran like its drift and was unplaced , i would have def done a reverse trade, cover trade win lay here to come out on top , that however wouldnt help you if your laying blind, but that is always the risk when trading blindly,Again the low risk trade got easily matched £50k matched , but the Higher risk trade would have been hit and miss i think , but as it reached 2.84 i am reasonably confident it would have been ok, but you cant say for sure , i would hazard a guess that a small loss would have been on the high trade and an easy profit for the low trade.
Summary - £50 LOSS for the purpose of this experiment.

Bet Nos 3. Sandown 14-20
BTL on EL DIAMANTE . Back this for £150 @ 7.6 and set trigger for a lay @ 5.5 for £200 giving you a potential High risk profit of either £50 or £85.68 ( Low risk option is set trigger for 6.4 and make either £30 or £18 ).
Result - El Diamente was unplaced , Hit a low of 3.4 in running , but between 3.4 - 5.6 only £97 was matched ( not sure on full liquidity ) , however on the low risk side ( 6.4 ) over £28k was matched so no problem there , i would say roughly High risk would have had a loss of around £70 ( without bet being struck, its slightly guessy as no show for liquidity ) , but Low risk was very easily matched. £18 Profit from that, so on the cautious side i would say roughly a £50 loss on this one , but you may well have come out on top if bet was live...but for the purpose of this we need a cast iron result , so a £50 LOSS it is.

Todays Potential Profits are ( HR ) £147-55 if all goes to plan...

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