Sunday, 31 March 2013

Easter Monday....


Well tmrw looks a hideously busy day and where to start one must ask ones self ;P....There is a plethora of dirge and as is usual on a Bank Holiday Monday just too much to focus on in one hit and having a scan thru the cards i want to move into Flat Mode as quickly as possible and with this i will be sticking to the flat where at all possible bar the Aintree Festival obviously , so moving onto Monday i think i will focus my attentions on YARMOUTH a happy hunting ground for me and a track i like , its been kind to me over the years and with the improving and hopefully improved weather making the ground that little bit firmer and less taxing i feel we can see some true run races here , Yarmouth is a fairly unique track , simple, straightforward and is kind to horses that run on or off the pace , this is a place where if your horse is good enough..it wins...its nigh on impossible to foul up tactically unless your an imbecile...this is a good course for form and stats..., that said its still early in the season and a degree in guessing is needed on some races but i shall try my bestestestest ;)..

YARMOUTH

RACE 1
WIN - MUNHAMER -
EW - ARAAJMH -
LONG - YAHILWA -
*This is a trappy maiden with quite a few nice looking sorts out and very little experience ( as you would expect ) to work on however Munhamer was sent off a 2/1F fto and never really got going until about 2f out coming home strong off a weak pace to pick up 3rd and this quicker grounder and 1f extra should be right up his street and i expect this to go well here and is a rather strong win bet , almost Nap material in fact and is one i will be looking to double thru or more with.
____________________________________________
RACE 2

WIN - AZREAL - 1st 3.79
EW - BLOODSWEATANDTEARS -
LONG - TIGHT LIPPED - 2nd @ 6.80
*This is wide open and should be left alone for singles as i cant really find an angle in with any and i may just end up dutching these in the place markets if i can get some decent prices and hoping to get at least 1 placed for me placepot and bet, tough race.
____________________________________________
RACE 3

WIN - MANDYS BOY -
EW - STRONG CONVICTION - 1st @ 36.0
LONG - POLAR CHIEF -
*Another tough to call race with around 5 or 6 of these hard to split and its a real guessing game as to what will have progressed the most over the winter so on a strict form level i think Mandys Boy CD win is as strong as anything on offer and with further progression expected this should run well ( a similar comment can be applied to at least 4 others ) and this is yet again not a race to really go overboard on and for singles betting i would say this is another that can be swerved.
____________________________________________
RACE 4

WIN - SPIN AGAIN - 
EW - PUTIN - 
LONG - MUDHISH
*Another tough race and a rather disappointing one at that, im starting to regret choosing Yarmouth now ;(...this is becoming hard work ffs...*SWERVE*
____________________________________________
RACE 5

WIN - FILS AGNES - 2nd @ 4.61
EW - TIME AND PLACE - 1st @ 3.45
LONG - EXOTIC GUEST -
*Fils Agnes absolutely hosed up over 5f in his maiden and was heavily eased and cantered over the line still 4L to the good and this trip will be easily reached and there should be a lot more to come from this speedy son of Dark Angel however if will have to be fully wound up as i have been reliably informed that Time and Place is Hanaghans best chance of a winner today so i will have a saver for profit on that and a RFC.
____________________________________________
RACE 6

WIN - KAAHEN -
EW - VASTLY -
LONG - BIN SINGSPIEL - 2nd @ 2.28
*Kaahen will only have to run to around 72-76 to get involved in the finish and he can run to the top end of that then he should win as those with experience dont look anything special and the Gosden runner Punditry is my LOTD ( 3rd )  as this looked very doggish lto and looks like a horse that will always find one or two too good and should be swerved , Vastly ran a lot truer and i expect that form to hold and a lot of Singspiels progeny improve with age and trip and this brings in Bin Singspiel which has run ok enough to suggest a maiden of this nature is within its grasp.
____________________________________________
RACE 7

WIN - YOUNG JACKIE -
EW - NORWEGIAN REWARD -
LONG - THE GREAT GABRIEL -
* A rather lackluster end to what can only be described as a disappointing card ( shame on you Yarmouth ) with this very low key hcap rounding proceedings off , not a lot to say here except if your reading this before deciding on where to go then i suggest looking away from Yarmouth as this is one of the poorest cards its ever staged.....;((
____________________________________________

Right folks, time to go out and celebrate Easter with some Beers with Sledge, Holmsey , Johnno and .......See ya tmrw ( hungover no doubt and enjoying a duvet day )....after i have compiled PTS as we start the new month and i look to continue our winning run ;)...Enjoy all , be safe , have fun and keep smiling, ttfn x

Saturday, 30 March 2013

Morning Motherfu**ers ;))



Morning All , this is a picture of Donny this morning and although still rather chilly its a beautiful day and what a difference a week make ;).
Running late today after the last two marathon days and a tremendous GSS day yesterday @ Flaxby where i finished with 27 Points which was not bad considering the winner come back with just 37 and i won our 4 ball ( 25,23,24 & me on 27 ) , lovely course with an incredible 98 bunkers!!...
Moving on and im looking forward to a very busy a rather grandiose day of trading as we go  from famine to feast with a plethora of meetings to aim at including both the re-arranged Lincoln card and a stellar day Meydan , rather disappointingly nobody has bothered to vote in with what they would like today so i shall go with a Lincoln card @ Donny and a brief summary card for Meydan ( would like to do more but i am actually running out of time today a i have a Tennis match in 90 mins )..so lets crack on....

DONCASTER

RACE 1
WIN - ANCIENT CROSS -
EW - SPINATRIX - 2nd @ 15.00
LONG - SHROPSHIRE - 4th @ 9.25
*
____________________________________________________
RACE 2

WIN - NAMEITWHATYOULIKE -
EW - YOJIMBO -
LONG - PATRIOTIC - 3rd @ 16.50
*
____________________________________________________
RACE 3

WIN - JACK DEXTER - 1st @ 3.20
EW - EFFIE B -
LONG - EQUITANIA -
*
____________________________________________________
RACE 4

WIN - LAHAAG -
EW - STRICTLY SILVER -
LONG - BRAE HILL - 3rd @ 24.70
*
____________________________________________________
RACE 5

WIN - SPACE SHIP ( NAP ) - 2nd @ 3.20
EW - THE WELSH WIZARD - 3rd @ 3.65
LONG - DUKE OF YORKSHIRE -
*
____________________________________________________
RACE 6

WIN - EASTERN DESTINY - 1st @ 7.45
EW - BROCKFIELD -
LONG - SNOW TROOPER - 2nd @ 6.2
*
____________________________________________________PLACEPOT LANDED 8 LINES = Win £
RACE 7

WIN - CANARY WHARF -
EW - STAR LAHIB - 2nd @ 4.39
LONG - INDEPUB -
*
____________________________________________________
RACE 8

WIN - WHITE DIAMOND -
EW - AVAILED SPEAKER -
LONG - DREAM PROSPECTOR -
*
____________________________________________________

Overall a very tricky day for punters at Donny with no real stand out bets other than Space Ship with the day being made up of Bookie friendly Handicaps...if your betting their today take it easy and just enjoy as there are better money making races elsewhere ;).
*****************************************************

Meanwhile , over at Meydan.....

in the 13:10 we see SOFT FALLING RAIN out again and it looks like another win is on the cards to me as this classy son of National Assembly continues its rise up the ranks and although there are some decent sorts on show i can not see this getting beat today. - 1st @ 4.0

In the 13:45 CAVALRYMAN looks an outstanding EW bet being the only true confirmed stayer in the field , is in form and has a bit of class , i expect this to run very well in this today. - 1st @ 7.22

We have a tough Sprint at 15:05 however i feel that SHEA SHEA is the one to beat although SOLE POWER will also run a massive race and i feel whoever gets the breaks here will win but my money is on Shea Shea.- 1st @ 2.08

Others to mention..MENTAL ( 15:45 ) , MUSHREQ ( 16:40 ) , DUNADEN ( 17:20 ) and my EW NAP for the day AFRICAN STORY ( 18:05 ) , so there we are that rounds up a rather hastily assembled collection of thoughts , off for some Tennis now, good luck and enjoy your day....


Thursday, 28 March 2013

Start of the WPGS ;-)

Yes it is indeed that time of Year the First of our Monthly Winning Post Golf Society days and we start the
Year off at FLAXBY a magnificent course twix York & Harrogate and its open and fully functional ( which is a surprise given the recent shitty weather ) and although it will be bitterly cold it will be nice to see the lads ( not been up since last Poker night in Feb ) and will good to feel the groove as i step up my rounds and practice in preparation for the Society week in Malaga in May , played my first full round in nearly two years a couple of weeks ago and come back ( on a toughish course @ Selby GCC ) with 39 Stableford Points from my opening Hcap of the Max 28 with a round score of 94 ( 66 net & 6 under Par ) which pleased me greatly and if i can repeat that level of form in tough going at a championship grade course like Flaxby i will be well chuffed although tbh anything under 100 will leave me happy so i will be unavailable all day tmrw and will be back with some selections , cards and shizzle on Sat as i am looking forward to Meydan..See ya'll Sat Folks x

Happy Easter

Hi all , Fingers crossed we will have the delayed Lincoln card on Saturday and we also have an amazing looking card from MEYDAN which is well worth a few looks with some big races including the UAE Derby and a finale worth an incredible $10,000,000.00!!!...so i will be back in full flow for some decent bets and advice on Saturday , lets all have a great Easter , ttfn x.

Sunday, 24 March 2013

The Curragh

Morning All , The Flat season stalls into life today after the Non Event that was Donny Yesterday with some action at Ireland's Premier track The Curragh a track steeped in mystery , religion , myth and oddly enough is the birth place of Motor Racing ;~ and is why the UK has a national Colour of Green ( British Racing Green ) for its sports cars.
All of the main Group races are held here and quite a few trainers are local to Kildare so know the ground and track well inc the Likes of John Oxx and Dermot Weld.
The ground is currently riding on the heavy side of soft so will prove a stern test for most but any known mud lovers will def have the edge today.
So i think for today we can have a look at the Curragh card and see how we get on although i wont hold my breath as i traditionally dont do that well in Ireland ( Flat or Nh ) as i think most of it is as bent as a 9 bob note but hey ho its gotta be better than Donkeydalk!.

CURRAGH

RACE 1
WIN - SABURO - 1st @ 2.42
EW - STUBBS - 3rd @ 3.95
LONG - CAPTAIN MOONLITE -
*Jim Bolger has won this race the last two years and last year he gave us the brilliant Dawn Approach which would lead one to believe that he likes to fire out something a bit special for this race , its just a run o the mill £12k Maiden that is usually a graveyard for Favs however Dawn Approach must have been well liked prior as it went off the Even Money Fav , The Irish Mafia ( Aiden O'Brien ) have two runners and Jockey bookings suggest that Stubbs is the one although as last season proved Jockey booking doesnt mean a great deal.
Captain Moonlite is one that interests me greatly as its from a the first season sire Bushranger who was brilliantly quick and if the progeny have taken an iota from that bloodline then they could be special.
________________________________________
RACE 2

WIN - CAESARIA - 1st @ 7.0
EW - MASTER SPEAKER - 2nd @ 4.0
LONG - LATE ROSEBUD -
*Caesaria is another from a first time sire from France and has an unusual pedigree one that is a mix n match of ability , speed and stamina and knowing with faucets have come to the fore at this early stage is a guess tbh but JB will have this straight and it should give a decent account.
Master Speaker is another of the Tabor Owned Danehill Dancer production line produce and on breeding should be quite useful although one must suspect it has has some training issues for a horse of this class to be racing so late on but if its clean could easily get into the mix.
Late Rosebud is well related but im not over keen on following fillies ( against the boys ) until after July so although i think this could be useful i will be swerving this today.
________________________________________
RACE 3

WIN - ELUSIVE PRINCE -
EW - BIRDS EYE VIEW -
LONG - SRUCAHAN - 1st @ 7.19
*A tricky race with quite a few in with a chance and most have shown some form on Soft going and at the trip so this comes down to raw speed figures and on the base of that i have these three to come out on top as the top two i feel may have too much weight.
________________________________________
RACE 4

WIN - YELLOW ROSEBUD ( NAP ) - 2nd @ 1.85
EW - N/A
LONG - N/A
*Yellow Rosebud has won fto for the last 2 years and finished off last season with its 3rd Victory at Group 3 Level when winning on the soft at Tipperary showing a great attitude and a good bit of ability, this race has cut up bad from the initial dec stage and is now there for the taking.
________________________________________
RACE 5

WIN - FRANCIS OF ASSISI - 1st @ 2.20
EW - EINSTEINS FOLLY - 2nd @ 4.90
LONG - N/A -
*Francis of Assisi ran well enough in his first term and still entered into the Guineas and the Derby so must be thought capable of more ( or could be a pacemaker for others.. ) but it showed its best form on soft going and testing conditions and a token vote is given that he has the ability her entries have afforded him but there are dangers abound and the most notable danger should come in the form of Einsteins Folly another soft ground proven performer with some decent form and looks to be plenty good enough to get involved ( although all early season racing / punting requires various leaps of faith as fitness , well being and form is taken on trust ).
________________________________________
RACE 6

WIN - ANSAAB -
EW - MAN OF ERIN -
LONG - ANTON CHIGURH -
*The Irish LINCOLN and its like one would expect a big field full of potential winners and this is to some degree a total luckfest , you pays yer money n takes yer chance here personally i have just looked for runners who like the trip n ground and shown the winning attitude with this combination.
________________________________________
RACE 7

WIN - ALPINIST - 1st @ 2.66
EW - LAKE DISTRICT - 3rd @ 10.27
LONG - PIET MONDRIAN -
*Our first two runners from last years Breeders list ( Ravens Pass & New Approach ) and i really feel that one of these will be winning this and make this a rock solid dutch.
________________________________________

So there ya go a decent enough day with some fair sorts about and enough to wipe away the gloom of yesterday , lets see how we hold up today , Feast or Famine ??...

**Well that was my first Full card of the new Flat season and i couldnt be any happier, a tricky day at a track ( and country i fare badly in ) bought about some decent results and some nice wins.., decent day and i hope you got on one or two winners ;)

Saturday, 23 March 2013




Vote for 1,2,3 or 4 , who would you want to Warm you up on a Cold , Snowy Day ;-)

Month to Date PTS Results....


MARCH PTS

1. = £196.00 Profit
2. = £398.00 Profit
3. = £486.25 Loss
4. = £174.00 Profit
5. = £56.00 Profit
6. = £50.00 Profit
7. = £110.00 Profit

Eow Totals = £497.75 Profit

8. = £88.00 Profit
9. = NO BET
10. = NO BET
11. = £108.00 Profit
12. = NO BET
13. = £104.00 Profit
14. = £80.00 Profit

Eow Total £380.00 Profit Running Total = £877.75

15. = £50.00 Profit
16. = £452.00 Profit
17. = £172.00 Loss
18. = £110.00 Profit
19. = £54.00 Profit
20. = £96.00 Profit
21. = NO BET

EoW Total £580.00 Profit    / Running Total = £1457.75

22. = £130.00 Profit
23. = NO BET

Its Snow Joke..............

Yes indeed annoyingly this blasted wintry weather continues to cause havoc and has claimed the Opening Day of the Flat season ( as well as Newbury and others ) at Doncaster ( i live just 20 miles from Donny and we are white all over ) so with just an AW card to possibly look at via Southwell i will be giving today a miss and taking the day off ( as Southwell is shit ) , i cannot remember a March where i have lost so many days to the weather its just unreal!!....So it looks like the big hurrah and Opening will have to wait until next Saturday as the week is filled with fiddly little meetings and scraps as the NH regathers itself for both the Aintree and Punchestown Festivals and the Flat looks to kick start itself , so another flat , dull , boring week ensues....sorry guys but i cant help the weather ;(.

Monday, 18 March 2013

Cant Wait...

Till this Saturday ( and next major Blog post ) as it heralds the start of the new Flat season and we kick off with the Lincoln a traditionally tough but well punted race that generally falls to horse priced between 10/1 - 20/1 so the value mungers will be out in force....;)

No more fences for my winners to fall at , no more hurdles to clout , better breeding reads and a more progressive form read ( weather permitting as even on the flat heavy going takes its toll ) and generally a lot easier to trade and work from.

One BIG piece of NEWS tho is this , i am currently in the process of setting up my OWN BETTING EXCHANGE which will have Guaranteed Liquidity , ZERO PREMIUM CHARGES for the main or bigger players , BOG offers , FREE RACES and an all time LOW Commission rate as well outstanding Customer Services including the refunds on WD horses, Refunds on Horses that FALL at the first fence , Refunds on markets affected through any form of outages etc , we will have the kind of easy to use Exchange that we all want, no gimmicks , no poker , no casino , no slots , just a rock solid exchange platform focused on giving the customer what they want , the First 100 People to sign up will also get there whole first Month COMM FREE , and the first 1000 to sign our " im interested Book " will also be entered into out free Bankroll Build Draw with the winner getting a fully funded account with £5000 to start them off , so watch this space for further details!!...in the meantime if you have any questions , queries or thoughts you may wish to share then by all means voice away.....
So until Saturday , take it easy folks , Look after your bank and get ready to rock n Roll on Saturday!!...

TTFN X

Sunday, 17 March 2013

Friday, 15 March 2013

Its GOLD CUP Day ;)

 Yes we are here the final day of what has been a tremendous Cheltenham Festival we have already witnessed some great races some thrilling finishes and one or two runaway winners include my biggest bet of the day yesterday on Cue Card ( 1st @ 5.4 ) and it was nice to see Venetia get on the board which is feel is very much deserved after the great season she she has had and even Twister had a nice win ( surprising as the yard is bang out of form ) and the unstoppable Mullins loco has finally hit the buffers!!..giving everyone else a chance ;) , Today we have the biggest race of the meeting in the Gold Cup which is nicely supported by Triumph Hurdle and the Albert Bartlett plus a couple of Hcaps but for me these are the 3 main races for today and these are the 3 i will put under the spotlight today.

RACE 1 : FAR WEST : 2nd @ 5.55

JCB Triumph Hurdle (Juvenile Grade 1)

.This is a deliciously tough race and not a great one for favourite backers which again looks the case as you scan thru the field and notice that any one from about 12 look to have a case , so lets look at some trends and see if we can narrow this down.

2013 Triumph Hurdle Trends

Friday 15th March - 13:30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle - Grade 1 - 2m1f
  • Sixteen of the last nineteen winners won the last time out before the festival.
  • Just two of the last fifteen winners were rated lower than 80 on the flat.
  • The last fourteen winners have all been tested at one mile and four furlongs on the flat.
  • There have only been seven placed Irish trained horses in the last ten years, from a total of fifty-eight runners, although they've had the second place horse the last two years.
  • Eighteen of the last twenty winners had their last prep run in the month of February.
  • Nineteen of the last twenty-two runners had run at least three times over hurdles.
  • Seven of the last nine winners didn't make their debut over hurdles until at least November.
  • Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Alan King all have a good recent record in the race.
  • The Adonis Hurdle, Prestbury Juvenile Novices' Hurdle and Finesse Hurdle are all good guides.
.So using the stats i am going to narrow the field down to the following...
1. GASSIN GOLF
2. OUR CONOR - 1st @ 5.55
3. ROLLING STAR
4. SWYNMOR
5. FAR WEST - 2nd @ 5.56
6. " DARK HORSE "
Now if this race just consisted of these 5 i think you would have a job splitting them as they all have something to offer , Swynmor is the classiest of these on the flat has solid form on soft and heavy can cruise through his race and can quicken and battle so has everything going fo it but im just a little concerned as to how he has recovered from his fall when leading at the last 2 races back as nto he didnt quite race with the same zest so my thoughts are open and the jury is out which is enough for me to avoid beacking him although i wont be surprised if he wins.
Gassin Golf is another Classy flat performer with very limited NH form or experience but its fto run suggested he could have a bright future over the sticks after all he was only beaten a hd and had the 133 rated Handazan 9L back in third so with a few pounds of improvement and luck he could well get into the mix but is only worth a few fun ew sheckles at 60/1+.
Rolling Star is the current fav but i think more by default than actual form although it does have some decent enough runs on its cv i am not convinced yet that this is the real deal but then that is the point of the race , its for Juveniles with promise, future stars and possibly chasers and a lack of experience has to be expected and i do feel this has an extremely high chance of placing and dont forget this is also a CD winner so is proven on trip, track and ground which could prove vital.
Our Conor is the big Irish hope and is certainly in with a big shout after rattling up a quick Trio of wins in his homeland with the first two wins against some questionable opposition however the 3rd victory was quite a taking performance and that one stand out piece of form gives him every chance and is as strong as anything else on offer ( although the horses he beat have not performed that great since or here ) likely contender for both favoritism and 1st place, strong chance and high hopes, cannot discount with no real negatives.
FAR WEST does however appeal to me as the most likely winner and although it has only raced against a total of 12 runners in its last 3 races it has won all with ease and has never been threatened and it beat Handazan by 9L and then by 19L showing a good deal of improvement and is a proper 145 rated horse that will run to form and only a performance in the low 150's will be good enough here ( imo ) the one thing however that does concern me is its apparent willingness to travel on and off the bridle thru its races , if this hits a flat spot at the wrong time it could give too much of an edge to the leading players so imo this will have be ridden prominently and a tad more aggressively to counter any off bridle effects but this CD winner is proven on the ground, trip and track and is being ridden by the very impressive Ruby ( leading Jockey  ) and i think this has an outstanding chance today.

Dark Horse : Vasco du Ronceray - Jean Ricou has been brought over from France to take this ride and IDK ( colleague ) is well versed on this leading French jockey as he is well known around the provinces , this horse has a bit to find form wise and will have to improve but is easily good enough to get involved in the finish.

Result :

13:30 Cheltenham

Full result
1st11 Our Conor (IRE)4/1
2ndFar West (FR)4/1
3rd13 Sametegal (FR)33/1

**************************************************

RACE 2 : AT FISHERS CROSS : 1st @ 2.43

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The Spa Novices' Hurdle) (Grade 1)

.This is a great looking renewal with some top top quality horses lining up , where do you start? , well for me the first to mention is Aim to Prosper a horse i love but i feel it is just a wee bit short of the class required to take this so is reluctantly over looked.
Then we have the admirable and fast improving African Gold but i feel that both the trip and grade will find him out , yes it has won 5 of its last 6 races and has run and won at 2m5f  but firstly this fast paced and stiff 3m will be beyond him imo and secondly he has only been beating rivals by just enough and they have only been rated similar to himself at around the 135 mark now taking on rivals some of which are rated at 140+ it will be too much and i think even a place will be a struggle , lovely horse but not this year.
Willie Mullins has a live chance in Inish Island but this beaten fair n square in the 3m Citipost by At Fishers Cross and i see no reason why this form should be reversed ( however should AFC make mistakes then by default this becomes a leading player ) and although Ruby rides Ballycasey i think Inish Island is the stables nos 1 chance.
Utopie Des Bordes is a typical french bred sort that stays all day and is not without a touch of class and is sure to be in the van all the way around but will it have enough to stay on up the hill over an untried trip...time will tell , my belief is that it will stay but will be more staying on than quickening away.
The winner for me will be AT FISHERS CROSS this has some outstanding form which has been endlessly franked and franked at the highest level most Notably lto beating the very impressive The New One ( Won the Baring Bingham here ) and not forgetting as previously mentioned the CD victory over Inish Island with Medinas behind ( Won the Coral Cup here ) , this Son of Oscar is a class horse and will take all the beating today , stays , quickens , battles , can race on or off the pace and likes all ground types , outstanding chance.

2013 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Trends

Friday 15th March - 14:40 - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle - Grade 1 - 3m
  • Four of the last seven winners had course winning form.
  • Six of the last eight winners had previously contested races over three miles.
  • Seven of the last eight winners were in the front five of the betting market.
  • All eight winners of this race had run at least three times over hurdles.
  • Nineteen of the twenty-one win and placed horses in this race had finished first or second in their last prep race.
  • Key races include the Hyde Novices' Hurdle, Bristol Novices' Hurdle and Classic Novices' Hurdle.
  • Respect novices aged seven or older.
  • All eight winners were rode handily.
.RESULT :

14:40 Cheltenham

Full result
1stAt Fishers Cross (IRE)11/8 f
2ndAfrican Gold (IRE)9/2
3rdInish Island (IRE)13/2
**********************************************************
And now its the BIG one the 2013 Cheltenham GOLD CUP.

My Selection : LONG RUN : 3rd @ 4.89
This is the festival show piece and one of the biggest races of the whole NH calendar and this race for me involves just 3 runners , Silvianco Conti who is a classy performer jumps for fun and stays all day and has to have a huge chance of changing the festival fortunes of the Nicholls camp, then we have Bobs Worth the current Fav and a terrific beast with a great attitude , clean jumper and strong traveler with some very useful form especially the win in the Hennessey and dont worry about the break as this has won every time its come off a 60+ day break so fitness or attitude will not be a hindrance cannot be over looked over in any way and is the one they have to beat.
Then finally we have my choice/selection/tip and that is LONG RUN  , last year was a disappointment  and it did run at least 20lb below its mark but after winning the Gold Cup the year before anything it did after was going to be scrutinized and i feel it left its mark but it has grown and become stronger and has returned this year right back to his best , battles like Ali can often appear off the bridle early on but that is just its awkward running style its one big problem has been its in different jumping , if this can jump cleaner it will win if it starts going through the top of one or two then either Bob or Silvi will take advantage and use the gathered lengths in the final surge this will all revolve around whoever jumps the best , they all stay , they all travel strong and can all jump superbly but this is where it will be won or lost , if this was a 3m2f flat race Long Run would win hard held but its not so you pays your money n takes your chance.
Sir Des Champs will now be ridden by champion A P McCOY but even with him taking the ride i still dont think its good enough so will be over looked and Laid.

This will be a fascinating, exciting and action packed race as the likes of the Giant Bolster and Cape Tribulation will both be looking to grab something from this race and will be going flat out , watch and enjoy/

RESULT :

15:20 Cheltenham

Full result
1stBobs Worth (IRE)11/4 f
2ndSir Des Champs (FR)4/1
3rdLong Run (FR)7/2
**********************************************************

Thursday, 14 March 2013

BooooooooooM

One for the members as Cue Card wins at 5.20 ;-))....( already had a 2nd / 2nd from first 2 races )..today is already another profit day and thats 3 from 3 ..gotta love the Festival ;-)

Tuesday, 12 March 2013

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL - DAY 2

Evening All , wow wow and wow what an amazing first day!!! , i made money on every race , hit a monster Treble with Simonsig/Quevega/Hurricane Fly and generally had a bloody good day!..( im obv v happy )  but what a battering the bookies took..ouch..with some very well fancied runners scooting in , what ever happens now This will be a profitable Festival as all the main damage has been done but im hopeful of more as i still have a few aces to play ;)).....
Performance of the day?? : Imo i would have to say Quevega winning , looked beat when slipping on the turn , got outpaced but rallied like a star , i was so impressed by that , The " Fly " also looked beat but then 2f later was back on the bridle , strange but impressive and Simonsig jumped poorly but got away it but my NAP My Tent Or Yours was done for toe up the hill and come 2nd to the impressive Champagne Fever a horse i backed and tipped last year in the bumper and i also had some cover on this year , that was a very good race.

Onto Day 2 and more fun n games are gteed but can i still nail a few winners, well lets take a look...

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CHELTENHAM - DAY 2

RACE 1 : GODSMEJUDGE

John Oaksey National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase)

.This is a fucking nightmare start tbh...a 4m Chase , a tough , grueling battering ram of a race compounded by the fact its for Amats!!....Ridic hard does not cover this....you will need a Magic Pin and some Fairy Like luck to get anything out of this...But lets try..lets look at some stats..
1.The National Hunt Challenge Cup opens the second day of racing at the Festival and it has been run more times than any other race at Cheltenham. It was established in 1860 and it is a real test of endurance.
It involves a gruelling distance of 4 miles and there are 24 fences to be jumped, and the race is open to novice chasers aged five years and over. 7-year-olds have enjoyed great success in the race in the past but it is Jonjo O'Neill who is the stand out trainer - the Irishman has claimed five winners, including three successive winners from 2002 to 2004, to make him the most successful trainer in the race's long history..

And thats all i have lol......Lets look at the horses involved , Tofino Bay has to be on the Short list as its being steered by a fav of mine Nina Carberry but also a horse with a decent level of form and winning form , has no problem with the ground and should show up well.
Patrick Mullins takes the reins on Back in Focus for his dad the maestro Willie Mullins and this is chasing a 4 timer after winning its last 3 races over 3m and has been winning on stamina sapping Heavy Going and i think this has quite a lot going for it today however i will be rowing in with who i personally feel is the best Jockey in this race and someone that imo is as good as any pro and that is Nick De Boinville and hes on GODSMEJUDGE a horse that has won over 3m2f and has won on soft and heavy going and was not stopping lto and looks an out n out stayer and i feel this can give nick his 1st Cheltenham Festival winner and the first of many as i feel this lad will have be having a long career however it must be said that this is as wide open a race as you will ever see.

WIN : GODSMEJUDGE - 3rd @ 8.50
EW - BACK IN FOCUS - 1st @ 3.40
LONG - TOFINO BAY - 2nd @ 12.30

SUMMARY : A stupidly tough race and one that should attract a bet that consists of no more than some loose change found in the back of the sofa!..Good Luck ( EW DUTCH for me )
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RACE 2 : THE NEW ONE : 1st @ 4.54

Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle) (Grade 1)

On paper this looks super competitive but dig deep and i think quite a few of these have form flaws and a few have form figures that flatter and there is only 4 in this race that really interest me.
1.THE NEW ONE

2.TAQUIN DU SEUIL

3.PONT ALEXANDRE

4.CHATTERBOX

Now the first mentioned The New One is a good looking sort that holds rock solid form with the run behind At Fishers Cross as good as anything on offer as it may come to light that AFC is a very very smart sort indeed , loves the ground and stays and stays and has the added bonus of being a CD winner , this is probably the "ONE " to beat.
TDS ( Nos 2 ) also boasts some useful form in particular the unlucky 2nd to My Tent or Yours and is another gteed to be staying on up the hill and this will be critical ( shown several times today ) and i think this will be hanging off the coat tails of The New One and they will have a battle royale in the last 2f.
Pont Alexandre is the Class from Ireland and comes here with a reputation taller than the Empire State building and has backed this up with some very decent looking performances but its my opinion that this has beaten fuck all thus far and still a horse of hype over substance and on that basis is overlooked.
That leaves CHATTERBOX who beat My Tent or Yours far more comfortably that The New One and also ran what i perceived to be a very smart race when beating Lac Fontana cosily lto however it is untried over this trip which i find a wee bit disconcerting and that brings me back to THE NEW ONE who i will be backing by default , i fancy Chatterbox but my money has to go on TNO but then at 5.8 & 13.5 i think the Dutch is a solid bet but Pont Alexandre is too short at 2.36 and is also imo a good LAY...decisions...

I think the LAY on PONT ALEXANDRE at 2.36 is THE  bet to make here and thats what i shall be doing even tho the Irish wont hear of defeat.

STATS :

2013 Neptune Novices' Hurdle Trends

Wednesday 13th March - 14:05 - Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle - Grade 1 - 2m5f
  • Twenty-three of the last twenty-six winners have had at least three runs over the hurdles.
  • Twenty-five of the last twenty-seven winners were in the top six of the betting for this race.
  • Twenty-eight of the last twenty-nine winners finished in the top two on their most recent start before the festival.
  • Ex-bumper horses head ex-flat horses 12-2 in the last fourteen runnings.
  • Six year olds have won on twelve occassions in the last nineteen runnings, including last year with Simonsig.
  • There has only been one winner aged over six in the last 39 years.
  • The Irish have won this race in five of the last ten renewals.
  • The Navan Novices' Hurdle, Deloitte Novices' Hurdle and Royal Bond Novices' Hurdle have been good form guides.

Neptune Novices' Hurdle Form

The Neptune Investment Novices' Hurdle is the second race run on the second day of the Cheltenham Festival, run over two and a half miles. Formally known as the Ballymore Properties, this novice hurdle was won in 2012 by the Nicky Henderson trained Simonsig. The following races are recognised as trials for the Neptune Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle

ResultCheltenham - 18th Nov 2012AgeJockeyTrainer
1stConeygree 8/15M BatchelorM Bradstock
2ndBondage 4/15A McCoyG Elliott
3rdAccording To Trev 10/16S Twiston-DaviesN Twiston-Davies
This was an impressive win for the half brother of Carruthers, who won by seven lengths against some promising novices. The five year old could well prefer the three miles of the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival.

Navan Novice Hurdle

ResultNavan - 16th Dec 2012AgeJockeyTrainer
1stPont Alexandre 3/14R WalshW Mullins
2ndBusty Brown 8/16P CarberryN Meade
5 ran
Willie Mullins' four year old routed the field which included the odds on favourite Don Cossack.

Challow Novices' Hurdle

ResultNewbury - 29th Dec 2012AgeJockeyTrainer
1stTaquin Du Seuil 13/8F5A McCoyJ O'Neill
2ndEaster Day 9/24N SchofieldP Nicholls
6 ran
This was an easy nine length win for the favourite who is now amongst the market leaders for the Cheltenham contest come March.

Introductory Hurdle

ResultNewbury - 29th Dec 2012AgeJockeyTrainer
1stChatterbox 5/14B GeraghtyN Henderson
2ndMy Tent Or Yours 4/11F5A McCoyN Henderson
3rdBest Boy Barney 40/16N SchofieldJ Scott
Chatterbox beat his stablemate and odds on favourite My Tent Or Yours, who hated the ground.

32red Tolworth Hurdle

ResultSandown - 5th Jan 2013AgeJockeyTrainer
1stMelodic Rendezvous 7/27N SchofieldJ Scott
2ndPendra 6/15N FehilyC Longsdon
7 ran
This was a good display from the winner, who is more likely to run in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle over the Neptune.

Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle

ResultCheltenham - 26th Jan 2013AgeJockeyTrainer
1stAt Fishers Cross 13/26A McCoyJ O'Neill
2ndThe New One 4/5F5S Twiston-DaviesN Twiston-Davies
5 ran
At Fishers Cross defied the odds to outstay the odds on favourite The New One. It's thought that the winner may go to run in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle over three miles.
Check the form for the other main championship races at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival:..

SUMMARY : A good looking race with not a lot splitting the top quad however having proven ability to stay will be definitive imo and thats the key here , The New One is my idea of the winner but for a bet.
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RACE 3 : GOULANES - Unplaced (  But dutch bet Won with a 1st @ 12.8 & 2nd @ 13.20 )

RSA Chase (Grade 1 Novices' Chase)

This is usually a race for the losers of the trials, those not quite top class but too good for hcaps , stable stars being outshone and those that have become disappointing but with potential ( for more disappointment ) and this generally makes it a punters nightmare and all i will be doing here is dutching the roughies 4,5,6,7 and 8 at between 12.0 - 50.0 and have some fun with the race , this is not a race to base fortunes around.
TRENDS :

2013 RSA Chase Trends

Wednesday 13th March - 14:40 - RSA Chase - Grade 1 - 3m
  • The last thirteen winners have all raced at least three times over the timber.
  • Only two six-year-olds have won the RSA Chase since 1978.
  • There has not been a winner over the age of eight since 1992.
  • The last 49 winners all raced during the same calendar year.
  • Twenty-four of the last twenty-five winners either won or finished second on their last run before the festival.
  • The last three favourites to have won the race were rated over 134 as hurdlers.
  • Traditional National Hunt breeds have won nineteen of the last twenty-one renewals.
  • The Dr P J Moriarty Chase is a key trial, as is the Reynoldstown Chase.
  • Seventeen of the last twenty winners were contesting novice hurdles the previous season.
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RESULT : 1st @ 12.80 / 2nd @ 13.20
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RACE 4 : SPRINTER SACRE ( UBER NAP ) - 1st @ 1.26 ( v v v easy )

Sportingbet Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1)

..SPRINTER SACRE...wow that was an easy review....
RESULT :
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RACE 5 : BONDAGE

Coral Cup (Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle)

..A run o the mill hcap now nut a big field which gives it a competitive look however this big field is packed with Dead Wood and i will immediately bring this down to 5 i like and they are ,
1. BONDAGE

2. MEDINAS - 1st @ 39.95

3. MEISTER ECKHART - 2nd @ 19.0

4.ERICHT

5.BUCK MAGIC

Now the first thing you may notice is that there is no Pendra here this is because i feel its form is very weak and is easy to take on, so much so i would recommend a place lay.
Of the Lucky 5 i have selected i dont have any real bias one way or another but as the prices on my fancies are ranged between 17.0 & 46.0 i feel a small stakes Dutch is in order.
If i had to pick one then i would at a pinch probably go with...Bondage....Just.

Notes The Coral Cup is a handicap and there is always a very large field that go to post. The Coral Cup results highlight how difficult a race this for favourites with only one favourite coming home in front in the last 16 years. The Coral Cup is run over 2 miles 5 furlongs the same distance as the Neptune Investment Hurdle earlier in the afternoon.
A reason why this is such a difficult race to win is that there are very few trends that really shout out and that is why reading the Coral Cup Form is tough for the horse racing anoraks as horses of all ages win.
There is no one trainer that has a great record in the race and the only thing that we see looking back at past winner is that horses with a low handicap mark seem to perform well..

RESULT :MEDINAS - 1st @ 39.95
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RACE 6 : PISTOL EW ( 34.0 + ) -

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

Now this is more like it or at least at first glance it looks like a quality renewal but this is another race that has some runners that have form figures they dont really deserve and they look a lot more menacing than they are.
SAPHIR DU RHEU is the one they have to beat as this lost its virginity lto winning a fair race very easily , loves the conditions and easily stays this trip and will be powering home up the famous Cheltenham hill and with so many weak finishers in this race this does look like his to lose however there are 2 or 3 that will make a proper race of it ( for the first 1m4f it will be frantic but it will soon tail off , trust me ) and they are McVICAR from the Alan King yard a very likable sort with any amount of improvement to come but has been found out at the top level and i feel this grade and opposition is about as tough as he wants , certainly in with a good chance of a place but could if improving realy get into the mix but he will have to be at his very best. then we have Zamdy Man another with scope but will have to improve to really get involved but if the improvement is there then a big run is on the cards and Finally we have PISTOL from the Hobbs yard a horse that has already finished ahead of the likely favorite Saphir du Rheu and this comes into the race looking for a hat trick after notching a couple of minor events but in good fashion showing good heart , good pace and with improvement this could be anything tbh and considering the Fav is 8.8 and Pistol is currently 34.0 this is one race where i will take the implied value option the vast difference between the prices makes little sense to me , first of all Saphir imo is if at all only marginally better but both will improve , Pistol has proven his better already and will give you a great run for your money , what would you rather do , take 8.8 for the WIN on the fav Saphir or take the 7.2 for a PLACE ( top 4 and some bookies 5 ) on PISTOL and maybe a small amount on the nose??..for me its a no brainer , big win on the Place with Pistol , small level stakes dutch on Pistol and Saphir du Rheu.
Some Stats...
.Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle Betting
The Fred Winter is a handicap for juveniles of four years of age. This race is all about horses that are improving for each run as they are just novices at the smaller obstacles and it takes time before they mature and become efficient at their jumps.
This is a very tough race for horse racing punters as their are generally over 20 runners and it is a handicap. When looking to narrow down your selection it is useful to look at horses that have won their preceding race before the Cheltenham showdown.
A good Fred Winter Hurdle Tip is to assess the winner of the Supreme the previous day, if it is won by a flat bred horse then the ground is probably on the good side and in all probability the Juvenile winner will have a similar profile. Whereas if the ground is slow you should be looking a National Hunt bread horse..

RESULT : 
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And now its the Finale for Day 2 and a race i have farmed over the years by nailing the winner in each of the last 6 years can i keep this going?????.....
RACE 7 : THE LIQUIDATOR : 4th @ 25.40

Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Standard Open NH Flat Race) (Grade 1)

..All im going to say here is my selection for this race is ....THE LIQUIDATOR , this won nothing more than a paid schooling session lto ( beat 3 runners by 24L in a canter ) but had previously shown a very good attitude when a comfortably beaten 2nd ( 13L back to the third , beaten 5L ) this was here at Cheltenham and has shown he likes the softer going when running on Heavy lto and won its race over 2m1f so gets the trip well , so , you have a progressive sort that stays , likes the course, can finish off up the hill , likes the ground , has a good attitude and a winning mentality and is very highly regarded at home in fact they think this is as good as Liberman ( won this race for them in 2003 ) so it ticks all my boxes and this is another confident wager for me and at its current price of 23.0 allows room for some EW action.

RESULT : 4th
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Another cracking day looks on the cards with some tough hcaps , hard to fathom Juveniles and some Fairy like magic in the shape of the equine brilliance of SPRINTER SACRE , plenty to watch and enjoy , my advice today is have some fun EW Multis / Yankee's etc and pick one or possibly two to try and pay for the day , i will be personally having a bank busting bet on SS to pay for all of my daily wagers and then fingers crossed i can get lucky with a some decent places for a double or treble , GOOD LUCK everyone, have fun and play safe.

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