Friday, 26 September 2014

Newmarket - Friday

Evening All ,
                   Whilst its been a duller than normal week on the racing front i am very happy to see Newmarket swing into top  gear for the Friday and for some strange reason *( to which i cannot fathom ) i am actually looking forward to the NH to kick in....most unusual however the anticipation has been boosted by the list of runners to follow i have been given by Shrewdie IDK and expecting a few nice touches to be landed this year,
And already we have the first disappointment of the season as it appears that Splash of Ginge struggles to jump even her own shadow with any authority and will be another failed convert to the bigger obstacles.

Its Ryder Cup time and the day kicks off with the foursomes and my NAP bet is that Speith / Reed will win their match against Poulter and Gallacher for reasons which have been posted on the Facebook page, i have no angle on the outright winner just yet as i have so many tied and i think this year could be the tightest ever but im hooping that after day 1 we will have a clear idea and with luck it will be team Europe to victor but time will tell.

Onto Racing and the boys in blue have been on fire recently banging in a great nos of winners and plenty at nice prices although none quite as high as the 25/1 winner which my comrade Eric Winner has on Thursday given which followed on from the 10/1 Winner on Weds..Impressive stuff and if your a serious punter its folly not to follow or at least glance at him on a daily basis , Now Friday and Newmarket...its a serious looking card and i shall give my thoughts as i work thru it all with some bet advice and selections.

Starting the day off we have the ROSEMARY Stakes over 1m for 3 yr olds + and this is a quite hot looking contest with BELLE D'OR the warm Fav @ 3.45 and this hat trick seeker looks the real deal off 104 as it thrashed out of sight the 105 rated Queen Catrine lto when winning the Distaff and this likeable sort will take a world of beating but there are plenty in here that can perform to that level on their day although most have under achieved , disappointed or flattered to deceive and it will take probably a career best by one to lower its colours today. there anything out there that can trouble the Fav , well in honesty i think given the prices we have a host of runners worthy of some EW action most notably being ZIBELINA @ 9.40 as this arrives back to race for a yard which is poker red hot and although speed wise it has a few lengths to find i think its well within the realms that this can do it and Batrana is interesting for MDK although this has around 20lb to find on my core figures.
Bet Summary : I think Belle D'or is a solid LAY at the current odds and Zibelina is a good FAP or EW shot in a race which will be good to watch.

The second race is the Harvest Stakes and its another for the Fillies although this time they run over 1m4f  and this is wide open and at around 6.0 the field the market would concur although the current just Fav CRITERIA looks a very good bet at those odds and is my idea of the winner in this.
Bet Summary : Impossible to take a confident line with any so at decent enough odds a punt on the Gosden /Buick combo of Criteria looks to be the stand alone bet for me , EW if possible and could be a good un for acca's.

I was gonna continue with the remainder of the card but am now side tracked watching this brilliant Golf on offer and just watched Garcia birdie from a bunker and my NAP bet of Speith go 1 all is going to plan...laters guys n gals...

Monday, 22 September 2014

Boring Monday..Lets Vote on the Best Ass....

So come on folks..its a boring Monday Afternoon and we are all sat twiddling our thumbs so lets while away the monotony by having a vote off...

Which of these will be voted the best or Biggest Arse....;-)

1 & 2

3 & 4  

5 & 6 

7 & 8 

or is Nos 9 in Fact the biggest Arse of them all.....

Thursday, 18 September 2014

Dubai Duty Free Cup (Listed) (Str) < 16:40 Newbury >

Afternoon / Morning / Evening / Early Evening / Dusk /Dawn /Mid Morning , tea time  etc..ALL ,

 Well its fair to say that last weekend didnt quite go to plan after a very poor ride from the fucknut that is known as Joseph O Brien ( Australia coming 2nd ) and just about everything else going wrong..." one of those weekends " i hear you scream and in truth was and then done pretty much fuck all this week other than spend time driving round in my car in the hope i could speed up Global Warming and kill us all in a Tsunami of bullshit......

So as i gently move into the weekend i see that we have a semi decent card on at Newbury which also has a Listed Class 1 for me to look at.

This race over 7f for 3 + years is a monster for both punters and analysts in truth as it is as wide open a race as you will find on the plus side the winner will be a nice price regardless of where you look as you can make this 5/1 the field quite easily , on the downside it bunches up the prices of the middle order which is where you will lose some implied value so better check those ratings...

CD Winner GLEN MOSS has to come into the reckoning arriving here in form and at 6.2 looks a fair price although it does around 3L to find with the fav Absolutely So,
In fact the Fav at its current price is a stone bonking LAY certainty and has to bet against at 2.20 as this is a ludicrously low price.....And i WILL be MAX laying this.
Safety Check is probably the class here but at 3.60 offers little for a horse that often fails to shine.
" IF " Magnus Maximus can recapture its best form then its a live chance but again the price offers nothing even at 11.50 , LADY LARA is one i like and this unlucky sort has plenty of ability and with a clear run could easily make the frame and/or win but again the price at 5.0 is very unappealing.

This race has often been won by a horse that had previously disappointed in better races and come to life for this and quite often doing little after and Both Glen Moss and Safety Check fill that box but as discussed they offer nothing so we will have to look or at least think outside the box.

Sirius Prospect is one that could Win if in the right mood but is a rather poor 7.2 and Miracle of Medinah is only just in double figures...which is leaving me scratching my head ?!?!....i would have probably done a dutch Fap on them if they were correctly priced but there is no Juice  so it looks like just the LAY bet for me....

RESULT : LADY LARA IS 1st @ 8.0 ( My kinda price for her in this ) and the 2.68 Fav Absolutely So was absolutely thrashed and was unplaced ;-))...some nice Boomage to get me rolling into the weekend...

Saturday, 13 September 2014

QIPCO Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1)

Mega Mega Mega MAX WIN...i will shovel every penny i have and that i can afford to lose in a single hit onto this ...outstanding animal in tip top form , fit as the proverbial butchers dog and racing over what i feel is his optimum trip....different gravy , in fact its in a class of its own....fantastic horse....

Thursday, 11 September 2014

Donny Race Card....

Well Thursdays races were tough as expected and i drew a im gonna fire up a card and get some accas , place pots and dutches on the brew for friday , get them placed and come back hopefully to some Booms as im out all day in a Golf Comp at Rudding Park.

DONCASTER > Friday <

RACE 1  > Polypipe Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2)

WIN : Ahlan Emarati -
EW : BEACON - 1st @ 10.50
LONG : Mind of Madness -

Summary : Beacon is almost an EW NAP as this is simply miles better over the five than what he has shown over 6 and really ought to be unbeaten over 5f however a poor ride and a poor ( ish run ) run lto have done us a favour as we can now get on at a crazy 11/1 which i think is a tremendous bet ( dont worry that Hughes is not on as he has gone to Sandown for three Hannon rides before nipping to Salisbury for another couple of Hannons ) Forget his last run and he could be as low as 5/2 for this and that last run was a messy affair over just put a line thru it and keep the belief that the Beacon will shine brightest of all....

Result : 
RACE 2 > Ladbrokes Mallard Stakes (Handicap)

EW : Suegioo - 3rd @ 23.0
LONG : Sir Walter Scott -

Summary : This is another of those demanding 1m6f races which really needs a trip specialist and we have a bit of a mix with our selections as Pearl Castle is the Stayer , Suegioo Won the Chester Cup and Sir Walter Scott is a typical Cumani improver that will have been primed for im sure we will get a good run for our money here and with the prices at 12/1 , 12/1 and 25/1 we have some fair value in there to be nibbled at.

Result : 
RACE 3 > Socialites Electric Cigarettes Doncaster Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2)

WIN : ESTIMATE - ( NAP  + PP Banker ) - 1st @ 2.54
EW : Times Up -
LONG : Clever Cookie -

Summary : Clever Cookie has done really well for connections this term and a big run would be no surprise but i felt all his cards were fully laid out last time and we know all we need to know and i do think it would be a bit of a surprise should he win , in all honesty i will be shocked if anything beats ESTIMATE today as this is undoubtedly the class in this and has all conditions in its favour and is back over the ideal trip and after a few near misses and a blot today should be her day and this has already been in front of Times Up and it will take a Herculean performance or a collapse to see that reversed....Has to be a MAX WIN on Estimate for me.

Result : 
RACE 4 > John Smith's Extra Smooth May Hill Stakes (Fillies' Group 2) (Str)

WIN : MURAAQABA - ( NB ) - 2nd @ 2.68
EW : N/A

Summary : I have this Johnston filly well clear on my ratings , Timeform have her between 4 & 20lb clear of these and this ought to be a formality as she justifies her entries into the Rockfel , Fillies Mile and the Cheverley ( doubling up on this if Estimate blows up ) .

Result : 
RACE 5 > Coopers Marquees Handicap

WIN : DANZENO - 2nd @ 3.60
EW : Alejandro -
LONG : Shropshire -

Summary : Typical trappy sprint with a lot meeting again for the umpteenth time but the fav Danzeno can confirm his Newcastle win against his elders once again but my old fav Shropshire will be getting my EW coin a lemming with this one im afraid...

Result : 
RACE 6 > Weatherbys Stallion Book Flying Scotsman Stakes (Listed)

WIN : White Lake - 4th ( Let me down for the PP which paid £156 )
EW : RISEN SUN - 5th
LONG : Sea Wolf -

Summary : This is a wide open race with little to split them and all arrive with some pieces of notable form and this will be a good learning curve for all concerned, from a punting perspective its really a watcher but if pushed i would probably risk a few EW sheckles on the MJ runner as it won nicely fto and will make another bold bid from the front and if allowed enough rope will hang them...and at around 10/1 is worth a go EW.

Result : 
RACE 7 > Frank Whittle Partnership Classified Stakes

WIN : Enobled - 2nd @ 3.20
EW : Raise Your Gaze - NR
LONG : Zee Zeeley - NR

Summary : Not a lot to go with here as its wide open so im gonna chuck a few pennies EW on the Champs Elysees runner Zee Zeeley and hope shes good enough but im expecting decent double figure odds so it makes the punt worthwhile and as with most i will be setting up some in running trades.

Result : 

Japan Racing Association Sceptre Stakes (Fillies' Group 3)

Morning World.....
                           Well yesterday didnt quite work out as i had expected but then again it didnt need to , Firstly Reckless Abandon which was yesterdays Nap got beat  ( run on into 2nd having been up with the pace for most of the race ) and although it was a decent enough run it only ran to around 112 which showed little improvement from its last run and this may now be as good  ( rather disappointingly ) as he is...the Winner Meccas Angel was 2nd top rated by me and unfortunately my blindness to the Fav meant that i did no dutch today ;-(....( Won @ 7/1 > 9.6 ) .....However...on the plus side as i was able to get a much larger than expected 1.7 + for a FAP i did indeed lump onto that with just a small portion ( 30% ) on the nose so i did ok in the end , not brilliant but i come away in one piece...

Thanks George Moorey and Simon Cooper for the comments and sorry today i couldnt get you that win...but as you eluded to this was a selection already on your radars....

What do we have for today ? , well there are some nice races at the Donny Leger meeting and today there are two races which make a fair amount of appeal , the first race is the blog titled Sceptre Stakes.

The SCEPTRE STAKES , a race over 7f for 3 yr old + and this years renewal is as good as any ive come across with a field packed full of potential , form and those wanting to re-establish themselves after some underwhelming shows .
A lot here today are again moving up from sprints to try their respective hands at a prize that is a rarity when you have a mark between 85-100.
The top rated is J Wonder on 109 but in truth there is little to separate the top 7 or 8 of these so the rating is of little consequence here today , what is important today is getting hold of a runner that has proven distance form and will like the ground.
One horse i really like in this is BRAGGING but rather annoyingly its again the Fav at around 3.35 which in truth offers little value and is a point  + lower than he really ought to be as i made this 7/2 which is a good bit higher than the Life Tissue of 5/2 and its current price...
Bragging tho' is a horse on a massive upward curve , won easily lto , loves the ground , loves the trip and stays a bit more , travels well , quickens and stays running on so ticks every box on the card..certainly has the scope , shape and conditions to win but that fucking price is giving me the hump....
So i am going to reluctantly look elsewhere for my bet.... ( Hmmpf ) ...Right on what does interest me is firstly EVITA PERON....this is a filly on the up albeit forgiving a no show lto over in France , is lightly raced and comes from a yard that specialize in these filly events as there is no better trainer of fillies than Ralph Beckett and using Godolphins Wedding Ring as a direct line of form representation then Evita has a few lengths in hand of Bragging and yet the price on the two is Bragging @ 3.35 and Evita Peron @ 25.0....this is a hugeeeee difference on two horse that have shown similar levels of form surely that has to be worth a look...??...

Amazing Maria is another that did fuck all over in France and had a run before when the Dunlop yard was struggling to even the horse boxes to arrive on time so all things being equal it wouldnt be pernicious to expect a much improved show but you are hoping for a lot to happen here but @ 32/1 the price is big enough to get involved without a huge outlay , Finally i think we can mention J WONDER as this won well lto and although prone to dropping in n out of form without warning is a rather capable sort on its day and could easily rustle a few feathers...

SUMMARY : ....I will be having a mixture of WIN & FAP dutches on Evita Peron , J Wonder and Amazing Maria , not huge stakes as i feel Bragging could be special but i want to take it on and have some im keeping it sensible yet i still think its a solid bet/s.


2nd Summary to follow on shortly....

So here we go after a wee break for a bite to eat and a walk with the dog we look at today's 2nd race and this is the PARK HILL Stakes a race over 1m6f which is a strange trip and is quite often won by those not really ready or good enough for a tilt at a champions race or classic.
 We have a few " interesting " runners here and i think it prudent that we start with SEAL OF APPROVAL a horse that arrives in form that would suggest he has been on a slow burn thru the season and has probably had this as his main aim , three runs thus far that look like it has been a program designed to build and strengthen with its last run in the Geoffrey Freer a pretty decent warm up for this running 3rd and steaming at the finish  ( shorter trip than todays ) all in all i think this has been laid out for the event and will run a big race and the 4.7 is only a fair price.

Melrose Abbey is an interesting filly from the Beckett yard , lightly raced and open to bags of improvement this daughter of Selkirk should enjoy this test and with a couple of victories under her belt she has shown a tenacity that many lack and this could indeed run into a place.

There is another group of 5 horses that will have their parts to play with any capable of winning and this group is Energia Fox , Venus Di Milo , Arabian Comet , Criteria and Silk Sari with probably the most to come from the Botti runner.

SUMMARY : This is a tough race to call with so many with chances and so many variables in play however the fact i can still get Even's the FAP on Seal of Approval is great so i am rowing in with a level return dutch FAP with SOA & Energia Fox.

RESULT : Not even a cheque book and Pen from me today.... ( those old enough will understand this ) 

Wednesday, 10 September 2014

From E.R.I.C Winner

John Smith's Original Scarbrough Stakes (Listed)

Good Morning One n All ,
                                        Well as you may have noticed ive been a bit quiet of late and that is down to a couple of things , firstly i have been busy with my ppl clients and secondly i couldnt be tbf the racing hasnt been that high a standard and to pour for hours over a race to give a summary with no feedback is a thankless task at the best of times but i do find myself with ten mins free this morning before my midweek round of golf so i thought i would share my thoughts and bet on todays Class 1 event the " Scarborough Stakes " a dash over 5f for all ages and a good prize to take down for those that have been aiming high all season with no luck to finally get a payday.
Is this race full of the same ol same ol racing against each other for the umpteenth time ?..well in most that can be said to be true however we do have something potentially very smart and that is RECKLESS ABANDON.

Reckless Abandon is todays current and likely sp Favourite  ( 3.25 ) and this is in part a price made of potential , juvenile form and a promising comeback race.

Firstly lets look at his Juvenile form ,

1st in his maiden.....nothing special...

1st in the NORFOLK Stakes ( Beating Gale Force Ten easily ).

1st in the PRIX ROBERT PAPIN ( Easily accounting for Sir Prancealot ) .

1st in the PRIX MORNAY ( Easily beating George Vancouver ) .

1st in the MIDDLE PARK ( Easily beating Moojahim ) .

So a brilliant 2 yr old campaign ended victorious which earned him a rather long 7 month break which meant he missed a lot of the top early 3 yr old prizes....

So he comes out a 3 yr old and goes straight into sprinting ( which i found odd ) and his first race after the break was the TEMPLE STAKES a well known hardcore sprinting event and he did very well running 3rd and beaten a Head & Head ....a month later he goes into the KINGS STAND ( another hardcore sprint and its now obvious this will be his route ) but this time he runs a bit green , hanging his head and looking awkward and never travelled quite as well eventually beaten 2 & 1/2L by Sole Power into 5th and then a final 3yr old outing saw him go into the Europes premier Sprint the ABBAYE and in all honesty i thought he ran a great race again coming in 5th but only beaten a Nose , 2L , Neck and a head  ( beat home Sole Power who was 6th ) and that ended what i personally thought was a solid year , no Wins but some very good races against some of the best sprinters Europe has seen....

Now we have a rather long and curious 10 month break ( no injury but must have some training issues ) and a move from Clive Cox to Godolphin so after this extended break he comes out and goes into a rather low strung ( compared to previous ) Listed event and this is over 6f...another odd move and not one i liked and although he ran on for third ( beaten by Tropics > Group 3 type < 1/2L and a Nose ) its has to be said that this is probably not his best trip and if you watch the race whilst all these erstwhile sprinters were flat out or whipping between the 4 and 5 pole Reckless was absolutely tanking and looked different class running up the rail with no cover and looking lost in his own world of class he hit a slight flat spot just after the 5 pole when the front three alongside him made moves and it took him 50 yards to re gather some lost momentum and i think with another 75 yards he would have won as he was powering at the finish.
The run that day was i think to around 110 and he will improve both for the run and the drop back to 5f and this class beast will surely be too good for these trusty sorts who by n large are n better than group 3 or Hcaps although most are useful.
So we have a top rated runner in Steps on 110 who is giving weight away all round and Reckless who ran to that easy level over his least effective trip and first time out after a long break , i think Reckless can run to a level between 115-120 at his peak and i think some saying he has lost his shine are talking bollocks , i think this is still learning and growing and will improve from last run , will motor thru the race and quicken up in the final 1f to show his class and the price will look like a gift afterwards...

SUMMARY : MAX WIN for me on Reckless Abandon as i feel this could be different class to these , yes it looks a decent enough event but if Reckless can finally fulfill some of his potential then i think he has upto 20lb in hand of these...yes thats a big statement to make but thats how i feel about it...  


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