Saturday, 22 November 2014

Late Saturday Post >>>

Hi Guys n Gals ,

Well its been a busy ol week without there being much on of those weeks where little gets done and the time just seems to fly what have we to look at today? , well i have 4 races i specifically want to look at and with any luck we might be able to conjour up a little Win or EW Yankee/L15 etc....

RACE 1 : 14:440 Ascot > This should be the easiest race to judge as FAUGHEEN could easily prove to be different class as it looks to extend its winning run from 6 from 6 to 7 from 7 and showcase its Triumph Hurdle claims after winning 4 egg n spoon races it easily won the Baring Bingham  and then won the Champion Hurdle event at Punchestown and will be a major force this year...some yard that Mullins has..just insane...will be an interesting race to watch as it has become a bit of a no betting heat , it is currently 1.32 and although its almost a standout " Frankel " bet i find myself holding back until i have seen this first run but i do expect it to win with a certain authority but i have had some good reports from Hendo regarding  Blue Fashion and this 150 rated son of Scorpion should prove a stern enough test...shame tho as it limits the possibilities of me getting a tasty Yankee together for you guys....lets see how we get on as i may add 1 more or revise to a Trixie...

RESULT : 1st - FAUGHEEN @ 1.25 - this pissed in never off the bridle beating Blue Fashion very comfortably...very very impressive.

RACE 2 : 14:05 Ascot > The AMLIN and this looks a cracker on paper a small but select field with some real class and Paul Nicholls will be looking to add to his personal tally in this having won it for 3 of the last for years including last year with one of todays runners AL FEROF and i have long been an admirer of this powerful son of Dom Alco and although breeding suggests he will be better over 3m this has thus far proven well within his realm although his win last year was a non event as only 2 turned up so this must be taken with a large pinch of salt and this is a 100 fold tougher task having been thrashed in its 3 following races by pure quality and its the way it got beat makes me think that Al is not really a proper C1 animal..maybe a weak one but probably just a listed or G2 at best and i think it will again get undone by superior class.
Bury Parade certainly is only C2 and quite often throws a race losing blunder in so for this to be anywhere near the places the others will have to woefully under perform and this will need a career best...far too many variables in that sentence for me to engage..leave alone.

Fox Appeal is interesting as its still a novice and looks to have a bit more improvement inside him but he will need to find that to get anywhere near these , a nice sort and one for future events but not currently at the standard required.
Radjhani Express is a solid if unspectacular performer that offers little in this grade and is easily overlooked leaving for me SOMERSBY and WISHFUL THINKING as the two main protagonists and at 5.0 & 9.2 i think is a solid looking dutch in a fairly open race.....for the Yanksters....well i am open to giving Somersby another chance as he usually takes at least one race to warm up and usually benefits to the tune of around 8lb for the warm up and his class can shine although he is rather unpredictable and not the most reliable sort.

RESULT : 1st - AL FEROF @3.85 > Career best run and it looks like he has finally got his act together , Somersby was 2nd @ 10/1

RACE 3 : 14:25 Haydock > A nice 16 runner Hcap Hurdle to get stuck into , Grade 3 but C1 so comes into this as it could offer us all a nice value bet.
KATKEAU is my HCE Tipping Comp selection and is one i think is a very good bet ( obviously ) as this hosed up after a long absence fto and runs today without its allotted penalty and could easily still be well ahead of the Handicapper and if it doesnt " bounce " then will goo very close and is a EW NAP as the 9.20+ looks a very tasty bite.
Elsewhere ..well in truth i cannot and would not put anyone off trying their hand with any other selection as this looks wickedly close and is as hard a race to judge upon as you will find.

RESULT : 1st AUBUSSON - Fantastic ride and run from a very promising stayer..i was impressed with this , wouldnt say KatKeau bounced as i thought it ran a solid race and looks good but was just beaten fair n square today after a late race hamper come in 5th ( one out of the 4 paid places ) and was matched as low as 2.0 for the win and 1.02 fap.....ALMOST MADE IT HOME FOR THE BACON..

RACE 4 : 

Betfair Chase (Registered As The Lancashire Chase) (Grade 1)

..Now for me its the days big one and a race that many a question will need to be answered , Can Silvi bounce back after a poor show fto when tanking then flattening , can Cue Card reveal a glimpse of its truest ability over a trip that has often left me bemused , Will Taquin finally show his true colours , can Dynaste stop fucking about and finally be the champion we know he can be ????? many questions to answer from most of the field.....and in truth if they all run to their very best then i think its too close to call  it will be for me a case of who ever turns up today and runs anything like wins..simple..
Cue Card often needs a pipe opener but really has to show it for me as i have little trust in this until i see some form but this CD winner is in with an obvious shout , I really dont know what to make of Dynaste a horse i love  but rarely shoves a full shift in many umms n arrs so im gonna have a Max Dutch on Silvi & Cue Card (  Nap Bet ) as i think this is the strongest bet and at 5.0 & 5.3 offers plenty of Value......

RESULT : 1st - SILVI' @ 5.27.....and thats the NAP bet Home...BoooM ;-)


Good Luck All, have fun n enjoy your Saturday.

Friday, 14 November 2014

Back from the unexpected...

Hi All im back after having to take a break away as me n the mrs departed our merry ways and i took it upon myself to take a break n visit me mam in sunny Spain to clear my head...and here we are...back to reality.........and its all about the NH now and Cheltenham adds fuel by holding its first true " Open " Weekend and the Friday card looks a great test and im hoping to see Saturdays equally stellar as we go the Nap without further ado lets go n smash Cheltenham...


RACE 1 : 19 Runner Novice hurdle to get the day started this a setter for the rest of the day...i seriously hope not as this looks very tough and not at all punter friendly.
Earth Amber from the Hendo yard will need to seriously improve both its technical side and its character as this moody sort although ability packed is a monster to train and will on the day do what he wants and that is enough reason for me to leave this alone.
GOLDEN JUBILEE looks a useful sort based on its fto run where it won with any amount in hand and was never pressed and this arrives here in form and getting upto just over 2 stone from its rivals as it views everything from bottom weight , this is no shoo in by any means but has to be in the final fence shake down  with anything like a clear round.
Chesterfield will be well fancied but like so many of the Ferguson flat track bullies he may find one or two of these too fit and too good so is easily overlooked..on this occasion..., GREAT CHOICE and JOHN LOUIS are two that i like and both look likely fto improvers from canny trainers and if the prices allow i am dutching the fap..but wont really know till tmrw...if i had to hang my hat on a sole EW selection then it probably be Great Choice.

WIN - GREAT CHOICE - 2nd @ 8.92


RACE 2 : This is a far easier to manage 5 runner 3m Novice Chase and it looks at first glance to be a monster Stat Lay race so i will wait for my bet choice until around half hour before the race but in all honesty is this rank up there at around the 9+ scale.
For the backers, punters and race goers i think Knock House could end up the best of these long term although it has yet to prove it stays although in truth it won so well over 2m5f lto ( won by what seemed a furlong when in fact it was only 18L ) that i really cant see this being an issue and this is worth a double check but it will take a super run to beat SAUSALITO SUNRISE which stays all day and at race pace which is a big plus and is a lot different to just staying as this multiple distance winner ( all 5 wins have been over 24f ) looks to have a much better engine than likely deceivers Kings Palace and this ranks a pretty good bet.

LONG - N/A -


RACE 3 : Now we have a race up that will placate the purists lol..its a Grade 3 Hcap chase..haha for punters these are nightmare races...Hcap and Beginner chases are the two toughest realms to attack and are ones i often leave alone however we cant do that for you lovely lot ;@) , the last two running's were won by the 10-0 bottom weights and in the last 8 years nothing over 11-9 has won so we will take out the top 3 that brings us to that level , Gevrey Chambertain was woeful lto so is readily fucked off , The Package is a classy sort on his day but the last time he showed any willingness to run Pat Eddery had just been born so is another on the dodge pot list , Lamb or Cod is a nice sort but only just gets this trip so i think i am going to look outside of the proverbial box here and have an EW on MASTER NEO who won very well indeed lto and jumper soundly is lightly raced and will enjoy any cut in the ground and at decent enough double figures is a solid bet where many in the field are practitioners of flattery and self flagellation.



RACE 4 : Todays Big one the PADDY POWER GOLD CUP and this looks a cracking renewal where plenty will have been trained for this as an early season shot across the bows and with 19 runners this will takes some winning so lets take a look at the class in the field.
The class it has to be said is spread throughout as there are some tasty ol runners here but i will fire my first Arrow into OSCAR WHISKEY who is a proper class 1 horse over this trip but i am personally not quite taken with his attitude or resistance in a battle and is one until i see improvements to leave alone...on the other hand JOHNS SPIRIT has been an utter revelation the last 2 years moving up from tasty Hcaps to listed then Class 1 with ease and on its first run this season it was never off the bridle until it turned into a 2 way fight to the line but John had too much class and won well and readily i might add by 1L and 6L and this is a truly top class stayer make no mistake and is worth following until something dramatic changes as i honestly think this is up there knocking on the door of the Sprinter Sacre's and Annie to get a price like 12/1 is imo outstanding and i simply have to get involved. (

 )BUYWISE is another up n coming champ in the making and also won well fto and looks Festival bound but he has gone up an eye watering 38lb this year alone and the tipping point will be found eventually so i am happy to watch that race and if it wins then so be it.
Present View ( 3rd ) is another that is superbly consistent and having been unplaced just the once in 10 outings is another that will do nothing but improve and i think he is good for at least another 16lbs so is well in off his current mark but at around the joint fav mark of 7/1 offers little to entice a bet and is one best watched today and Indian Castle is another who looks well in and could easily get involved but for me this is all about Johns Spirit EW NAP with most bookies paying an Extra place..el lump for me as i see no way this doesnt place with a clear round.

WIN - JOHNS SPIRIT - 2nd @ 13.0


RACE 5 : Next up is a tough 3m Hcap Hurdle and this looks very tight on my ratings and stat base as im having trouble splitting 5 of these.

So lets just focus on my Fab 5..
1.KATKEAU - Hasnt raced for over 600 days but was smart looking prior to the injury and if Pipey had got him back in good order and the belief and ability are still present then he could easily make the frame or better but at 5.7 offers fuck all in value and simply has to be dropped on the basis of non existent value.-1st @ 6.80

2.INVICTA LAKE - This is a step up in class for this but it won a nice looking C3 event lto over a similar trip so easily it had crossed the line in front in nothing more than a common canter and i think it has every chance based on that and is well deserved of his place in this line up and at 18/1 is worth a nibble for a fun bet in a tough race.- 3rd @ 23.46

3.PINEAU DE REI - This is a nice sort from the very capable Newland yard and last years National Winner wont be lacking for any form of stamina and should there be any doubts about the others this distance winner could be there at the end to mop up after them all but in truth i dont feel he will have the pace or class for something like this and the 20/1 is too small for me to get involved.

4.VIVALDI COLLENGES - This has the potential to be the real class act in this , lightly raced and consistent this could go right to the top and a nice return when just touched off will have brought him on n he should now be spot on and this for me is the likeliest winner and the 7/a stands out as a corking EW bet.

5.FIGHTER JET - Never under estimate anything Alan King sends out as he showed last season the wily old fox is back at the top of his game and as his ammo chest fills up it wont be long until he can start firing back at the likes of Mullins et al and the 14/1 on this is not a bad bet imo does stay but often gives himself too much to do and throws in one too many mistakes.

EW - KATKEAU - 1st @ 6.80
LONG - INVICTA LAKE - 3rd @ 23.46


RACE 6 : HARGAM which was sold out of the operation run by IDK in France reckons this is a shoo in for some future black type as rates this group class..Bought by JP and sent to Hendo they expect big things of this who is by a mare that is by Galileo and is by Sinndar in the first degree..thats a very attractive blood line in either code and this multi £££ purchase will be expected , however if the ground is way soft then they wont risk a slog for exertion so may take an easy route ( this is only an assumption ) and i do feel the 2.72 is a very decent price and im making this my stand out bet and NAP for the day. - 2nd @ 3.04 ( Hit 1.04 )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ & PLACEPOT LANDED @ 4 LINES....;-))
And in the NHF im sticking with the red hot Greatrex and having a go on Miss Estrila....Have a great day all good luck and ttfn

Saturday, 1 November 2014

Sunny Saturday

Well what a spectacular Month Weather wise..moving into the 1st Nov and its 19°..this is bonkers...but lets enjoy this final flourish as im sure the cold damp n miserable weather will not be far away.........well the Charlie Hall usually means for most the NH season has started in earnest and the whole Wetherby card looks pretty decent in truth but its Ascot that is getting my vote as i like the look of some of the races on offer and a mix of tricky n fun....however everyone must back Silvi Conti today as i see this no way losing as its the class act and is a good 8-10lb better away from Cheltenham..should muller these if anywhere near fit n ready.

Race 1 : Its a 2m4f ( almost ) Hcap hurdle and with 14 runners and a good spread thru the field looks a nice race to get involved in.
No class acts on show but one or two with potential and i think its the type of race where any runner that is not double figures gets kicked to the curb and thats takes three out straight away so we are down to eleven runners and this is a massive stat race with only Shalianzi missing the cut so we are down to manageable 10 runners.
I dont like Money for Nothing at All so thats out ( down to nine runners ) and the rest are quite closely matched making this a tight affair .
The two i like for a FAP Dutch are COUP DE GRACE and CUSHEEN BRIDGE now neither are super stars but the former has a bit of scope and stays well and at full race pace so will be in the hunt all the way round whilst Cusheen Bridge often leaves its charge to late and is often caught out or knocked back and if these off the pace types make a mistake it can prove very costly so this will need to get some nice cover and get a good slot no later than three out then move thru what will be a few beaten horses as we have pace setters in this which should cause its own set of problems so a tidy Fap Dutch is the order in this.
Stick Rascal in for the PP


Race 2 : Tidy little Novice Hurdle now with just the 8 runners but iun truth this looks little more than a match between CLONDAW BANKER and OUR KAEMPER as they alreay look a cut above the remainder which are made of ex pointers and failed ring types and i will be quite shocked if one of these dont take this down and with the dutch paying just under 1.50 i think this is an outstanding bet and wont look elsewhere.


Race 3 : Next up its a Hcap Chase ..these and Beginners are the two i really dont like as both can prove very hard to predict as your angle of attack or window of opportunity in these is so much smaller...COCKTAILS AT DAWN looks a nice type and looks a ready made chaser and will be winning races for sure and could today prove to be well ahead of the handicapper although from a pro bet perspective i think the 3.80 or so for the FAP on GENEROUS RANSOM is a good looking bet and should be included into any decision you make , both in the PP for me.


Race 4 : This looks a cracker 9 runners in this Byrne Group Listed Event over 2m1f  Claret Cloak is the class act but wont give the weight away without a superhuman run and thats not happening today...ONE TERM  is the bet for me here at 12/1 unbeaten over fences and because its had a year or so off its a crazy price progressive and classy and right in the middle weight wise a good girlfriend is both giving and receiving ;) and this is a knocking EW bet.
Elsewhere and for the PP im Having Bellenos and Stone Light.


Race 5 : SIGN OF A VICTORY And thats me outta time....with Geverey Chambertain and Restless Harry in the Finale 


Copy Halt