Friday, 14 November 2014

Back from the unexpected...

Hi All im back after having to take a break away as me n the mrs departed our merry ways and i took it upon myself to take a break n visit me mam in sunny Spain to clear my head...and here we are...back to reality.........and its all about the NH now and Cheltenham adds fuel by holding its first true " Open " Weekend and the Friday card looks a great test and im hoping to see Saturdays equally stellar as we go the Nap hunt...so without further ado lets go n smash Cheltenham...

CHELTENHAM 

RACE 1 : 19 Runner Novice hurdle to get the day started ...is this a setter for the rest of the day...i seriously hope not as this looks very tough and not at all punter friendly.
Earth Amber from the Hendo yard will need to seriously improve both its technical side and its character as this moody sort although ability packed is a monster to train and will on the day do what he wants and that is enough reason for me to leave this alone.
GOLDEN JUBILEE looks a useful sort based on its fto run where it won with any amount in hand and was never pressed and this arrives here in form and getting upto just over 2 stone from its rivals as it views everything from bottom weight , this is no shoo in by any means but has to be in the final fence shake down  with anything like a clear round.
Chesterfield will be well fancied but like so many of the Ferguson flat track bullies he may find one or two of these too fit and too good so is easily overlooked..on this occasion..., GREAT CHOICE and JOHN LOUIS are two that i like and both look likely fto improvers from canny trainers and if the prices allow i am dutching the fap..but wont really know till tmrw...if i had to hang my hat on a sole EW selection then it probably be Great Choice.

WIN - GREAT CHOICE - 2nd @ 8.92
EW - JOHN LOUIS - 6th
LONG - GOLDEN JUBILEE -

RESULT : 
                                                 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 2 : This is a far easier to manage 5 runner 3m Novice Chase and it looks at first glance to be a monster Stat Lay race so i will wait for my bet choice until around half hour before the race but in all honesty is this rank up there at around the 9+ scale.
For the backers, punters and race goers i think Knock House could end up the best of these long term although it has yet to prove it stays although in truth it won so well over 2m5f lto ( won by what seemed a furlong when in fact it was only 18L ) that i really cant see this being an issue and this is worth a double check but it will take a super run to beat SAUSALITO SUNRISE which stays all day and at race pace which is a big plus and is a lot different to just staying as this multiple distance winner ( all 5 wins have been over 24f ) looks to have a much better engine than likely deceivers Kings Palace and this ranks a pretty good bet.

WIN - SAUSALITO SUNRISE - 2nd @ 4.10
EW - KNOCK HOUSE -
LONG - N/A -

RESULT : 
                                                 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 3 : Now we have a race up that will placate the purists lol..its a Grade 3 Hcap chase..haha for punters these are nightmare races...Hcap and Beginner chases are the two toughest realms to attack and are ones i often leave alone however we cant do that for you lovely lot ;@) , the last two running's were won by the 10-0 bottom weights and in the last 8 years nothing over 11-9 has won so we will take out the top 3 that brings us to that level , Gevrey Chambertain was woeful lto so is readily fucked off , The Package is a classy sort on his day but the last time he showed any willingness to run Pat Eddery had just been born so is another on the dodge pot list , Lamb or Cod is a nice sort but only just gets this trip so i think i am going to look outside of the proverbial box here and have an EW on MASTER NEO who won very well indeed lto and jumper soundly is lightly raced and will enjoy any cut in the ground and at decent enough double figures is a solid bet where many in the field are practitioners of flattery and self flagellation.

WIN - THE DRUIDS NEPHEW- 2nd @ 5.72
EW - CAPE TRIBULATION -
LONG - MASTER NEO -

RESULT : 
                                                 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 4 : Todays Big one the PADDY POWER GOLD CUP and this looks a cracking renewal where plenty will have been trained for this as an early season shot across the bows and with 19 runners this will takes some winning so lets take a look at the class in the field.
The class it has to be said is spread throughout as there are some tasty ol runners here but i will fire my first Arrow into OSCAR WHISKEY who is a proper class 1 horse over this trip but i am personally not quite taken with his attitude or resistance in a battle and is one until i see improvements to leave alone...on the other hand JOHNS SPIRIT has been an utter revelation the last 2 years moving up from tasty Hcaps to listed then Class 1 with ease and on its first run this season it was never off the bridle until it turned into a 2 way fight to the line but John had too much class and won well and readily i might add by 1L and 6L and this is a truly top class stayer make no mistake and is worth following until something dramatic changes as i honestly think this is up there knocking on the door of the Sprinter Sacre's and Annie Powers..so to get a price like 12/1 is imo outstanding and i simply have to get involved. (

 )BUYWISE is another up n coming champ in the making and also won well fto and looks Festival bound but he has gone up an eye watering 38lb this year alone and the tipping point will be found eventually so i am happy to watch that race and if it wins then so be it.
Present View ( 3rd ) is another that is superbly consistent and having been unplaced just the once in 10 outings is another that will do nothing but improve and i think he is good for at least another 16lbs so is well in off his current mark but at around the joint fav mark of 7/1 offers little to entice a bet and is one best watched today and Indian Castle is another who looks well in and could easily get involved but for me this is all about Johns Spirit EW NAP with most bookies paying an Extra place..el lump for me as i see no way this doesnt place with a clear round.

WIN - JOHNS SPIRIT - 2nd @ 13.0
EW - OSCAR WHISKEY- 4th
LONG - BUYWISE -

RESULT : 
                                                 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 5 : Next up is a tough 3m Hcap Hurdle and this looks very tight on my ratings and stat base as im having trouble splitting 5 of these.

So lets just focus on my Fab 5..
1.KATKEAU - Hasnt raced for over 600 days but was smart looking prior to the injury and if Pipey had got him back in good order and the belief and ability are still present then he could easily make the frame or better but at 5.7 offers fuck all in value and simply has to be dropped on the basis of non existent value.-1st @ 6.80

2.INVICTA LAKE - This is a step up in class for this but it won a nice looking C3 event lto over a similar trip so easily it had crossed the line in front in nothing more than a common canter and i think it has every chance based on that and is well deserved of his place in this line up and at 18/1 is worth a nibble for a fun bet in a tough race.- 3rd @ 23.46

3.PINEAU DE REI - This is a nice sort from the very capable Newland yard and last years National Winner wont be lacking for any form of stamina and should there be any doubts about the others this distance winner could be there at the end to mop up after them all but in truth i dont feel he will have the pace or class for something like this and the 20/1 is too small for me to get involved.

4.VIVALDI COLLENGES - This has the potential to be the real class act in this , lightly raced and consistent this could go right to the top and a nice return when just touched off will have brought him on n he should now be spot on and this for me is the likeliest winner and the 7/a stands out as a corking EW bet.

5.FIGHTER JET - Never under estimate anything Alan King sends out as he showed last season the wily old fox is back at the top of his game and as his ammo chest fills up it wont be long until he can start firing back at the likes of Mullins et al and the 14/1 on this is not a bad bet imo does stay but often gives himself too much to do and throws in one too many mistakes.

WIN - VIVALDI COLLENGES -
EW - KATKEAU - 1st @ 6.80
LONG - INVICTA LAKE - 3rd @ 23.46

RESULT : 
                                                 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 6 : HARGAM which was sold out of the operation run by IDK in France reckons this is a shoo in for some future black type as rates this group class..Bought by JP and sent to Hendo they expect big things of this who is by a mare that is by Galileo and is by Sinndar in the first degree..thats a very attractive blood line in either code and this multi £££ purchase will be expected , however if the ground is way soft then they wont risk a slog for exertion so may take an easy route ( this is only an assumption ) and i do feel the 2.72 is a very decent price and im making this my stand out bet and NAP for the day. - 2nd @ 3.04 ( Hit 1.04 )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ & PLACEPOT LANDED @ 4 LINES....;-))
And in the NHF im sticking with the red hot Greatrex and having a go on Miss Estrila....Have a great day all good luck and ttfn

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