Tuesday, 31 July 2012

Wakey Wakey

Rise n Shine...Its time for my favourite week of the year GLORIOUS GOODWOOD but alas i have sadly thus far been rather short on time for any worthwhile reviews as my wife has been in hospital the last couple of days and my time has been spent elsewhere and after getting everything sorted out this morning i find i only have a short space of time left for full reviews.We do have however a total of 7 qualifying races today with 4 of them at Goodwood ( 3 x Class 1's and 1 x Maiden ) so without reviews i will just post my bets in these races...





AYR 13:45 - DONE DREAMING - LAY - 1st @ 7/2



**We have a Breeder list runner today in SADFIG in the 14:25 @ Beverley - 3rd @ 27.23
Right im back off to the hospital now , have a great day and good luck with whatever you do ;-) ttfn.

Saturday, 28 July 2012

Well its all Kicked off....

The Olympics that is and tbh it was quite a decent Opening Ceremony with some good skits and sketches and some poignant reminders of what its like to be British , all in all a good performance and talking of good performances i was very happy with the start of my new betting / blogging regime as the posted races ran pretty much as i had thought although the epic drift 1.59 - 2.62 on Fleeting Smile altered the bet structure on that race it was still a good profit race as i had a good trade on Flawless Beauty ( backed at 30.0 and traded at 3.0 ) which come 2nd and a good lay in the race and Moones my Name ( which lost 7 L at the start ) ran on for 3rd ( 3 places paid on Betfair ) gave me another Profit but the real wins came over at Thirsk where i had a 18.0 winner in the first and Carlton Blue at 9.0 in the 2nd ( so wished i had doubled them ) as well as 2 other big priced ( 27.0 and 29.4 ) placed efforts returning some very nice profits the only race i suffered a small loss on was with Qannaas ( 2nd ) but managed to trade a profit in both the Photy market and the stewards ;-) so all in all yesterday i had a bet in or traded 11 races and had 11 wins so cant complain.
Today the qualifying races are spread across the board like this ,
YORK : 2 races the 15:10 & the 16:20
ASCOT : 1 race the 15:25
NEWMARKET : 1 race the 14:15
NEWCASTLE : 1 race the 13:55
This gives us a total today of 5 Races to aim at and i shall cover them all here and hopefully nab a winner or two ;-)....

YORK 15:10
This is a Group 2 ( Class1 ) 1m2f stakes race that looks competitive and is full of horses that have this season thus far either under performed , not carried their form , been disappointing , not trained on or not had conditions to suit....yes the list of excuses for most is very long.
AFSARE has to have a leading chance racing on ground it has won on multiple times , is in form , has solid recent form and comes primed for a big run and although it won lto its best runs were the earlier ones coming 4th and my only concern is the start as it quite often seems to have trouble upon leaving the stalls which is frustrating so you may wanna cross your fingers if your on this.
JET AWAY's Victory over Fiorente reads very well now and on that form must be given a shout although there is something about this beast that makes me want to swerve it every time ( certainly at this level ).
The remainder of the field are pretty much of a muchness with so many having had great victories in the past and some dazzling form to show in their respective scrap books its hard what to make of them , Premier Loco , Wigmore Hall , Hunters Light , Plantuer , Ransom Note , Sri Putra...the list is a long one and any of these could chuck a dream ride in a wide open affair.

CONCLUSION : On the balance of current form and probable improvement this looks a duel between Afsare and Jet Away and a dutch on these two is a solid looking bet that i couldnt talk anyone out of however i will be having a speculative EW punt on PREMIER LOCO who has only raced over this trip twice and both times it was in the winter Derby at Lingfield being beaten a Nose the first time and Winning the 2nd and is a lot more consistent than a few of the others and at 17.0 looks a fair bet ( may well dutch the three thinking on ;-)).


Full Result

1st (4)10 Sri PutraR Varian69-2 hbN Callan12/1
Held up behind in touch, headway over 2f out, ridden to challenge over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, stayed on to lead towards finish opened 17/2 £5000-£500
2nd (1)nkAfsareL M Cumani59-2K Fallon9/4f
Held up in touch on inside, headway over 2f out, soon challenged, led and edged right inside final 2f, ridden when hard pressed inside final furlong, edged left and headed towards finish opened 3/1 £6000-£2000 £1500-£500
3rd (7)Side GlanceA M Balding59-2J Fortune6/1
Raced keenly, tracked leader, effort and every chance over 2f out to 1f out, kept on same pace in 3rd final furlong
4th (11)Jet AwaySir H R A Cecil59-2T P Queally7/2
Dwelt, held up in rear, switched towards stands side rail and headway over 2f out, ridden and effort when hampered over 1f out, swtched left inside final furlong, kept on opened 9/2 touched 3/1

YORK 16:20
Now we have a tasty looking maiden with most of the field having garnered some experience and they newcomers can all be discounted bar Khelman ( check Fahey tab ) which is quite highly thought of at home and has been showing good speed on the gallops and has attracted some early support at fancy prices this could well be worth an EW tickle.
BACOTHEQUE should be winning soon judged on his races to date , lto he raced on the wrong side and led that group a merry ol dance but couldnt reel in the near side leader and went down by 2L given how that race panned out that was a very good  run and i would be shocked if this isnt winning sooner rather that later and today could well be the day.
AJMANY is another that is well thought of and was a beaten odds on fav lto behind subsequent winner Hasopops but that was a slowly run affair and today the emphasise will be on speed and this should be more to his liking.
BURNING BLAZE is my LOTD @ 3.5 as it raced over 7f and on soft ground fto and has far too many questions to answer against more reliable yardsticks , i simply cannot understand why this is fav?.
Dark Opal as highlighted by Jason Coote from HCE is one that could run a fair race at huge odds and could be one for the traders.

CONCLUSION : On the balance of form shown and forward potential i think the two main protagonists BACOTHEQUE and AJMANY should have this between them but dont discount good runs from either Khelman or Dark Opal , BURNING BLAZE has to be laid imo.


Full Result

1st (5)Burning BlazeK A Ryan29-3P Makin11/4c
opened 3/1 touched 5/2 £1000-£400
2nd (8)1Cour ValantNoel Quinlan29-3N Callan33/1
3rd (2)10 MedicoeSir Mark Prescott29-3L Morris8/1
touched 17/2
4th (3)Ajmany (IRE)L M Cumani29-3K Fallon11/4c
opened 9/4

ASCOT 15:25
This is a small field Group 3 ( Class 1 ) over 6f for 2 yr olds and i am Really keen on the hot fav MAUREEN from the hannon stable , this won head in chest fto then ran really well in the Cherry Hinton ( 2nd ) and looks to be a very smart prospect indeed.
Hoyam looks to be the main danger and could be one for the F/C.

CONCLUSION : MAUREEN all the way for me , i will be very surprised if this doesnt win although it will have to work hard for it.


Full Result

1st (1)Maureen (IRE)R Hannon28-12R Hughes5/6f
Prominent, keen hold, led over 1f out, drew clear inside final furlong, comfortably opened 5/6 touched 10/11 £500-£550
2nd (3)Sandreamer (IRE)M R Channon28-12Martin Harley11/1
Held up in rear, headway over 1f out, soon switched right to challenge, not pace of winner opened 10/1 touched 11/1
3rd (2)HoyamM L W Bell28-12J P Spencer5/2
Steadied start, headway to lead after 2f, headed over 1f out, one pace touched 11/4

This is one tough looking maiden with all the big boys in attendance and shall have to refer to my breeding notes....( flicks thru the pages )....and upon reading i have deduced that only about 6 runners fit the profile required for winning this 7f affair and i feel the winner will come from the following group , #
ERSAAL @ 3.95
GO FAR @ 36.0
RHOMBUS @ 22.0
So we have the two early and likely favourites mixed with some rather fancy prices and this looks like a Win / Place Dutching  race to me.

CONCLUSION : This does appear at first glance to be a fight between the two leading Arab horses and a dutch win on those two looks a very strong bet but dont be surprised if something pops up here at a fancy price i would also surmise that the more stoutly bred horses will struggle as this will be all about whoever is the most forward and pace , the best horse may well not win this.


Full Result

1st (12)13 Timoneer (USA)M Al Zarooni29-3M Barzalona11/4f
2nd (13)nkBlue Wave (IRE)M Al Zarooni29-3Antioco Murgia (5)12/1
3rd (8)¾Bright Strike (USA)

Another maiden but this looks a rather scrappy affair tbh with a few having had a run and most showing very little.
Ouzinkie has had a few tries and is upped in trip but i would be rather surprised if others didnt improve past him and this will be laid.
I am however quite keen on the Dods pair DENTON SKYLINE and BEAT THE TIDE with the latter having shown up well on soft ground i would expect a much improved run today and the former out of Celtic Swing.
INOVATE should also run a lot better now with a bit of experience after finishing down the field in a hot York maiden and it is trained by the currently red hot T Easterby.

CONCLUSION : I think on form BEAT THE TIDE should and will take all the beating here but with most set to improve from their first run like Bains Pass and Inovate this is rather a tricky one to call and you cannot be over confident about any and for betting purposes i will be having a PLACE only Dutch on the two Easterby runners INOVATE & SURROUND SOUND @ around 4.0 each.


Full Result

1st (9)Beat The TideM Dods28-11P Mulrennan9/4f
Held up in touch, headway over 2f out, riddden to chase leader approaching final furlong, edged left inside final furlong, stayed on to lead towards finish touched 2/1
2nd (4)¾11 Surround SoundT D Easterby28-9D Fentiman16/1
With leaders, led 3f out, ridden and strongly pressed inside final furlong, headed and outstayed towards finish opened 14/1
3rd (1)Ouzinkie (IRE)M R Channon28-11S Hitchcott9/2
Went left start, chased leaders, ridden 2f out, stayed on under pressure inside final furlong, not pace of leading duo opened 4/1 touched 7/2

Friday, 27 July 2012

Back to Basics...

Morning all , pfft thats all i can say as this has been one tough week , make £10 - Lose £20  , make £30 - Lose £40 and so on.....its been a grind but the day ended with a flourish yesterday and after analysing the races that went wrong for me i have decided that for the whole of August ( and maybe more ) and starting from today i am only going to get involved in the races that historically i have specialised in namely Maidens ( all ages ) and Group / Class 1's this will on any normal day give me enough  to aim at ( will revert back to Maiden/Juvenile Hurdle's , NHF and Group 1 Equiv for the NH ) and looking through todays cards i can see a plethora of races that require my attention , thinning out the races will allow me more time to focus and concentrate and hopefully iron out the more erroneous selections and hopefully put a stop to me getting involved in races where i dont have a strong opinion and usually end up losing money.
I have spent the last 6 years tracking and following breeding and have compiled a rather sturdy Breeding database which i will now use more i will when the occasion follows also " tip " any Stable horses from our group of friends, owners and trainers.
Nothing is ever Guaranteed but i do feel i may have been spreading myself a bit thin , the Investor accounts and general portfolio is going well however my own personal betting bank has been hammered this last week and i need to rectify that , hopefully i can still give you the readers and followers the odd winner and some helpful advice and contribute towards some profit making.
So ,...let the Journey begin....

ASCOT ( 2 Qualifying races ) 

1.14:20 - These are usually well contested races with a fair bit of blue blood flowing although some say that Ascot is a bit too quirky for 2yr olds i say bollocks....left or right , up or down sweeping bends and deep cambers....they should all act but just to differing degrees the real area of adjustment should only be found on a flat, straight course with gd/gd-firm ground.....that then becomes a truer test of a horses pace and speed , anyway moving onto this race ( after the ramble ) i wasnt over impressed with the run of Fleeting Smile fto http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/08-06-2012/newmarket/result/503049/lloyds-tsb-commercial-e-b-f-maiden-fillies-39-stakes/video. if you look you will see they were flat out and all bar the winner were off the bridle fully 2f from home and were spread out like washing on a line , the winner newfangled has since ran and won the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot which itself makes the form look spectacular but Newfangled won very easy and those behind are imo at this juncture just very average and @ 1.59 i am most certainly not interested in this at all and with it racing prominently it offers little interest as a LTB so what about a BTL...possibly  but again if it gets a bad or tardy start the trade value will go so either an outright lay or leave alone.
What else can win?/...Well Close at Hand has a royal pedigree and is bred to be very useful and this trip should be ideal , Flawless Beauty is a sister to Aiden oBriens Wrote which is useful although quirky , and the rest all look to have stayers pedigree's suggesting this trip may well be the minimum for them and they " may " lack the pre requisite pace.
Conclusion : 1.59 is just too short a price for most horses in most maidens and this just didnt look that great but the paucity of honest opposition means that its a tough call to look elsewhere , my thoughts are that Backing CLOSE AT HAND in the PLACE market @ 1.93 is a better bet than betting on Fleeting Smile to Win at 1.59.****Drifted out to 2.62 Just before the off , this obviously alters the selection process somewhat****


Full Result

1st (4)Fleeting Smile (USA)R Hannon29-0T P O'Shea11/8f
Made virtually all, edged right off near side rail inside final 2f, soon ridden, stayed on well inside final furlong opened 11/10 touched 9/10 £500-£500
2nd (2)1Flawless BeautyH Palmer29-0M Hills14/1
Held up, headway on outside halfway, went 2nd 3f out, ridden to challenge over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong, always held
3rd (6)110 Summer DreamM Botti29-0T E Durcan4/1
Chased leaders, switched right off near side rail 2f out, soon ridden, hung right over 1f out, stayed on same pace in 3rd final furlong opened 6/1
4th (10)Close At HandJ H M Gosden29-0William Buick3/1
Ran green on near side rail lost place and dropped to rear after 1f, switched right to outside and headway halfway, green but stayed on to 4th over 1f out opened 11/2

2.15:30 ( Class 1 Woodcote Stakes )
Just the 7 fillies line up and quite a tightly grouped bunch they are with only Villeneuve being readily discounted.
Free Verse is also discounted on the grounds of Trip.
Moones my Name is most Interesting as not only is it a multiple distance winner but R Hughes has decided to ride this instead of Free Verse for the Queen and His boss R Hannon.....Maybe thats a clue in itself??...Thistle Bird is an obvious improver but does suffer from temperament problems and may well not be the most resolute in a battle and with the top four only separated by hair widths this i wouldnt want to be fighting my cause.
I love Me looks well held on recent form with no reason for it to be reversed, Night Lily is probably just not good enough which leaves Beatrice Aurora a Filly that has been competing in group 3's and listed pretty much exclusively and has some very fine runs to her credit although the stable form does somewhat temper enthusiasm with just 1 win with his last 30 runners and just 3 placed from his last 20....so until the yard shows some revival then i think this is best swerved ( may well be the best horse but stable is so out of form i cant get into it ).
Conclusion : With R Hughes riding MOONES MY NAME instead of a Queens horse for his boss , with the horses own form and outright standing i think @ 5.8 this is a cracking EW bet ( or place only ) and has an outstanding chance of gaining some black type today.****Reared at the start and Lost at least 7 Lengths****


Full Result

1st (5)Thistle BirdR Charlton49-5 hJ Doyle4/1
Tracked leader, led 2f out, ridden clear over 1f out, stayed on strongly touched 7/2
2nd (6)VilleneuveW R Muir38-7Martin Dwyer20/1
Disputing close 3rd, definite 3rd inside final 2f, ridden and stayed on to 2nd inside final furlong, no chance with winner opened 22/1 touched 25/1
3rd (2)hdMoone's My NameR M Beckett49-1R Hughes10/3
Reard badly leaving stalls, took keen hold in rear, pushed along 3f out, ridden and headway inside final 2f, stayed on to 3rd inside final furlong, closed on 2nd nearing finish opened 

 Over at THIRSK they have 4 qualifying races ( all Maidens ) as well as IRE/UK 10 others.....if anyone wants a perspective on the remainder then get in touch, have a great day , be lucky , ttfn x


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