Thursday, 26 July 2012

Today at Sandown

Morning All , Hope your all well and making some money ;-) , been a tough couple of days for me , some poor decisions , some poor selections and not making enough of the winning opportunities ;-P , but this is part and parcel of the game and i have experienced far worse swings and days and tbh overall the stats read well and the ROI is well above what it should be so im still smiling ;-) .
Today we have both day and night some good quality racing about and i shall cast my eye over todays SANDOWN card and give you a few thoughts.
The first is a Maiden and i shall make this brief PEARL ACCLAIM really should be winning this for a variety of reason and is priced accordingly so not really a betting medium for most but for those with some spares this shud be like printing money.
In the 14:30 we have a stayers race and a rather competitive one at that although tempered by the 2 non runners this still looks wide open and a case of sorts can be made for each runner and on good racing ground i feel a proper form perspective can be taken on each with this in mind i feel that WINNERS WISH represents the best bet EW ( currently 9.0 ) this is guaranteed to get the trip , likes the ground  , is a CD winner and was a well backed fav lto when a 2 1/4l 3rd but just couldnt quicken enough the only real negative i can find for this Clodovil filly is the tendency to swish her tail and race rather erratically during the back end suggesting temperament issues , if she can settle and race without this hindering her chances she is sure to run a very big race.
The 15:05 gives us a very tough looking fillies stakes races and these can quite often chuck some very odd results up and in this i will nominate my LOTD in RAYAHEEN , yes i know it won its maiden in gritty fashion but that is just what it was a gritty , hard fought maiden win and not beating that much and this is a lot lot tougher than that maiden with all bar one having won last time out and Amazonas having won on her penultimate start.
But can win ? , well frankly , probably any but i shall try and narrow it down to 1 selection and my choice is SAVANNA LA MAR ( EW and is currently 11.0 ) this is a Distance winner that won by a strong looking 3 1/2l lto and comes from the yard that won this race last year with the smart Kinetica and will surely be primed for a big run.
The 15:40 is a somewhat steadier looking Hcap and i am quite keen on DESTINY OF DREAMS @ 21.0 ( EW ) this would have needed its lto run at Windsor and is a distance winner however it does have to show it will like the quicker ground and that it can reverse form against Night and Dance but at the likely big odds i feel its well worth a dabble EW.
16:15 and its a maiden for the older gen and this really is a guessing game and the only bet i will be having here is a LAY on the likely fav ESTEBSAAL @ bfsp ( but if sp i higher than 4.0 i will leave a keep bet in at 3.6 ) as any number of these could be improvers , DREAM TUNE is probably the safest EW bet (  4.0 ) but poor value.
And the finale is a rather dour looking hcap with some rather shite looking sorts, unreliable, unpredictable and not resolute...this is a trappy ending...BATGIRL has strung a reasonable amount of form together and has won 3 times at this trip ( seems to like Yarmouth ) and would be my token selection in a tough race to finish on.

And some Gibberish from Grant....
Purr Along can take the leading role in the Weatherbys Vat Services Star Stakes at Sandown.
On the face of it, this is a big step up from a Wolverhampton maiden to a Listed race but the William Muir-trained filly created a big impression when winning at Dunstall Park.
Never far away, she only needed to be shaken up to go and win with lots in hand over fellow newcomer Jumeirah Moon.
Five lengths was the winning margin, with the runner-up in turn three lengths clear of the third.
It visually looked a very good performance and certainly Muir was not talking her down afterwards.
Pearl Acclaim is hard to oppose in the British Stallion Studs Supporting British Racing EBF Maiden Stakes.
The market suggested he was one of Richard Hannon's smarter two-year-olds when sent off at odds-on for his debut at Newmarket last month.
Things did not quite go right, however, and he had to give best to stablemate Havana Gold, who was an easy winner at Ascot over the weekend.
If Pearl Acclaim is considered better than that one, a race like this will be the minimum connections expect, as a Gimcrack entry indicates.
Stamina oozes through the pedigree of New Youmzain and he is really interesting in the Young Stayers Handicap.
A 33-1 chance on his first start at Salisbury in May, the Mick Channon-trained Sinndar colt showed ability in third behind the Queen's subsequent Royal Ascot winner Estimate.
He built on that when rallying to score over the same mile-and-a-half trip at Thirsk.
That he fought back so well in North Yorkshire gives every hope he will relish this first try at a mile and three-quarters.
Roger Varian's Normal Equilibrium should take all the beating in the British Stallion Studs Supporting British Racing EBF Novice Stakes at Bath.
A full-brother to Group Three winner Elnawin, his ready Lingfield win was given a nice boost when runner-up Royal Aspiration was beaten just three lengths in the Weatherbys Super Sprint.
Ground conditions should be ideal.
Varian can land an across-the-card double with Perfect Step in the Esquires Coffee Wheatley Retail Park Fillies' Handicap at Doncaster.
The lightly-raced daughter of Iffraaj bumped into a good one in subsequent Jersey Stakes third Sovereign Debt at Ascot and would be most unfortunate to meet something of that ability on Town Moor.
Rum Punch ran with promise in a race won by Show Flower at Ascot that has worked out well and reinforced the merit of the form when victorious at Folkestone, where she returns for the Westenhanger Handicap holding every chance.
Fresa handled Epsom when a solid second last week and it would be no surprise to see her go one place better off the same mark in the Paddocks Fillies' Handicap, particularly as she shapes as though a mile and a quarter will suit.
Best Excuse gets the vote in the Ladies At The Races Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race at Uttoxeter.....


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