Friday, 30 September 2011

Morning All....


And what a ludicrously nice day day it is , 30th sept ( just a smidge from oct' ) and its fucking 28*...wtf!! , incred , had the best april ever , then may - now was fairly wank ( although i spent the best part of two months in spain ) , its all upside down , yeah i know its because of the jetstream being more northerly than usual but still its seriously great!, talking of this great weather , no doubt all the " greenies " will come out of hiding to spout more utter fucking bollocks about how the enviroment ( why is my auto spell checker not picking this up as a word? ) is being eroded and how now 16 trillion polar bears have just melted and penguins are now seeking counselling as they are depressed coz its too warm!! , fucking mental , only yesterday i read that ( in the daily mail of course ) that the D.O.T is thinking about lifting the speed limit to 80 but " brake " the retarded anti-speed organisation say we will all die if this happens , even tho its a well known fact that ( imo ) 90% of all motorway users travel beyond the current 70mph limit , the speed limits were introduced in an age where most cars had a 0-60 in well just , thats the point most only had a top speed of 70 anyway , the ford zephyr , a fast car in its time and one that most households would love to have only had a top speed of 90 ( flat out , downhill ) and a 0-60 of about 20 secs , the main problem is that they braked slower than a train and had the turning circle of the titanic so 70 would have been rather " risque " then , now however we have cars that can do 70 in first gear and stop on a sixpence so it is long overdue ( raising the speed limit ) .
The one other thing regarding this that really did make my blood boil is the cunt from save the earth that stated raising the speed limit would increase pollution by a factor of 10 , what a fucking arsehole , clueless and ignorant , all these greenies talk utter fucking bollocks 24/7 and do nothing but scaremonger the mindless into submission , considering we all ready comply to over 100% of our greenhouse gas etc output  and we only ( the uk ) contribute about 0.001% of the worlds emissions i say where pretty safe....however the govt will want to find some new green taxes to hit us with so no doubt they will continue to say that come next may the artic circle will only be a smudge ( until next may comes and they say they have to review the data as its all currently wrong )....i could quite easily rant all day and night about this but im steaming enough..so lets move onto the horses , today i will be producing two cards , Ascot and Fontwell , hopefully i can give you some help in making some cash and AL will have choices to be able to use his wonderful " leeson " technique to make a few pennies ( good luck with that ) , Some decent betting opps here for PK to get stuck into ( dont really know anyone else ) so without further ado..heres your cards...

ASCOT

14:20
BACK - TRY THE CHANCE - Unplaced
LAY - CAPE CLASSIC - £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced = Won £250
EW - INDIAN JACK - Unplaced
**A tough start to the day with most of these looking to have a solid chance however dig a little and you'll find that a few dont like the trip or the ground or turf , so some of these can easily be discounted on a variety of grounds , Indian Jack has no problems with the trip or the ground but is inconsitent , TRY THE CHANCE however loves all conditions , is a 7f specialist and is bang in form and for me just gets the vote on that.
Cape Classic is a 6f horse , max lay.

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14:55

BACK - MUNDANA - £250 @ 3.4 - 1st @ 4.84 = WON £600
LAY - CLASSIC COLOURI - £250 @ 3.6 - Unplaced = Won £250
EW - PRIMAEVAL - 2nd @ 5.64
**In my mind ( however distorted  ) this is only between the two named protagonists , " if " Mundana gets this trip proper then with natural improvement it should be far too good for these as it is the only improver in this field , all the others are what they are , and a modest bunch at that , classic colouri rated at 95 is a joke , 1 win in 13 none since mar 2010 ,  come on!!..this really should be a two horse race.

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15:30

BACK - MIDNIGHT OIL - Unplaced
LAY - ITHOUGHTITWASOVER - £250 @ 8.4 - 2nd = Won £250 ( was a lot closer than i would have liked )
EW - THE BELLS O PEOVER - Unplaced
**Tough hcap with some well known sorts about and most have enough form to entitle them to consideration , however there are also enough direct form lines about to narrow the field down quite comfortably  , midnight oil could easily beat these if on form , but i do like the bells o peover , a truly gutsy animal that never knows when to give up and with SDS in the saddle will be given every opportunity to win.
***Midnight oil never settled and looks a bit of a nutter, bells o peover raced far too quick in the first 1/3 of the raced and eventually weakened right out.
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16:05

BACK - HIGHLAND CASTLE - £250 @ 2.88 - 2nd = Lost £250
LAY - BUTHELEZI - £250 @ 6.6 - Unplaced = Won £250
EW - BARBICAN - £175 @ 4.6 ( will lay trade £175 @ 2.1 ) - 1st @ 4.72 = Won £415.63
**This for me is another straightforward choice between highland castle and barbican , as the others are all out of form and and cannot be relied upon , the one spanner is solar sky however it has shown nothing to convince me that 1m6f is far from an ideal trip.

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16:40

BACK - CUNNING ACT - 2nd @ 9/4
LAY - ELRASHEED - £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced = Won £250
EW - COLLOQUIAL - Unplaced
**2m marathon , tough trip , but colloquial has won over cd a couple of times and likes every yard of this , the only spoiler for me is his age , 10 now , which may just have sufficiently blunted his speed enough in this class , if it hasnt and he runs to his best form...he wins , but there are quite a few " ifs " there , cunning act for me will be the one most likely to take advantage , and elrasheed doesnt stay so max lay nimps ;-).

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17:15

BACK - PABUSAR -Unplaced
LAY - SWENDAB - £250 @ 6.8 ( KEEP BET ) - not matched ( Unplaced )
EW - ELUSIVE PRINCE -Unplaced
**A tricky little sprint to round the day off and not the easiest of getting out stakes to plunge your hard earned into , however i do feel dutching these two reasonably priced ( 9.8 and 18.0 ) animals offers the right risk reward ratio punt , imo both are good quality animals and the thing is with sprinters is that they all take it in turns to win , i believe that today is going to be pabusar's day , elusive prince is in because its a ridic price for a horse with a near 28% strike rate ( all wins over 6f )....

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FONTWELL

14:10
BACK - MEMORABILIA - 2ND @ 4.0 ( HIT 1.02 in running, went thru the last fence ).
LAY - SAQUIL - ( NBB )- UNPLACED
EW - BALLINA BLUE - Unseated at first.
**Complete guesswork based on all known flatform and surmising that they can actually jump....

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14:40

BACK - RED HARBOUR - 1st @ 1.53 ( only because Khorun fucked it up at the last )
LAY - KHORUN - £250 @ BFSP - 2nd = Won £250 ( i was very lucky here )
EW - STAGE ACCLAIM - FELL
**As quite often happens in a 3 runner race the outsider wins....losses expected ;-(.

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15:15

BACK - MR HARMOOSH - 2nd @ 8.91 ( hit 1.30 )
LAY - ZAKEETA - £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced = Won £250
EW - ILLYSANTICHRISTINA - Unplaced
**Illysantachristina has won three of her last four starts but Bernard Llewellyn's mare still doesn't look badly handicapped. Mr Harmoosh has a penalty for his Plumpton win but is another for the short-list.

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15:50

BACK - TROOPER CLARENCE - £150 @ 4.6 ( place market ) -Unplaced
LAY - RIPPLING RING - £350 @ 4.6 -Unplaced = Won £350
EW - GRAND LAHOU - £150 @ 6.4 ( place market ) -Unplaced
**A fantastic race for this time of year , with nearly all having squeaks , this should be a great race , i think trooper clarence has a bit too much weight personally but is my speed ratings choice and i think @ 24 grand lahou is far too big , both will be backed by me EW .
***£50 Profit on race.
****Both selections ran fairly decent races but just did not stay and got well run out towards the end , Rippling Ring fell at the first which was great.
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16:25

BACK - WILLIAM HOGARTH - Unplaced
LAY - TWAE KON DO - ( NBB ) - Unplaced
EW - MIDNIGHT FUN - Unplaced
**Fun race , twae kon do looks unlikely to get this trip , but most pre race analysis is pointless before dec...

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17:00

BACK - MONTANA GOLD -Unplaced
LAY - CALL AT MIDNIGHT - £250 @ BFSP -Unplaced =Won £250
EW - ORION STAR -Unplaced
**............I Think at 7.4 Orion star is massive and with 3 places being paid 2.2 to place is superb , he loves the track , gets the trip well and loves all ground , jockey is well known to the horse , outstanding chance and great value...its an EW must!!

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17:35

BACK - COCK O THE ROCK - 2nd @ 2.5
LAY - VIVIANI - ( NBB ) - 1st @ 4.0
EW - MISS KALIFA -Unplaced
**...At this stage of the afternoon i will be now sipping my first Rekordalig of the day ;-)))

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Total profit and loss for today = £2815.63 PROFIT
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Right guys and Gals , hope youve all had an equally profitable day , as you know the weekends are now members only , so i wish you all the very best and look forward to seeing you all back on monday ;-))..

*nb: dont forget to lay the arse off  " so you think " in the Arc!!

Thursday, 29 September 2011

What a lovely day....

It is today , the sun is shining...and all is well in the world ( well my world anyway ) , no real dramas or news to chew on today , well the news everywhere seems to have remained the same over the last 6 months , some trouble in libya , the world is skint and china is everywhere....thats pretty much it....
On the racing front , for a thursday its pretty fucking dismal tbh , i will flash a couple of todays bets from warwick here....

WARWICK

16:10 - LAY - NEVER SATISFIED - £250 @ BFSP - UNPLACED = WON £250

16:40 - LAY - BRICKFIELDER - £250 @ BFSP - - UNPLACED = WON £250

And thats it for the blog today , tbh pretty uninspiring across the board , its time for me to unearth all my pages and pages of data on the aw and i will have to start the unpleasant task of sifting thru all the nh data and stats , although i will mainly be concentrating on the trading side of things during the winter months , just got a nice looking weekend to look forward to , although that said for my readers all day sat and sun will be restricted to the pro site as its the start of the new year on sat ( arc weekend ) , what i will say now well in advance is that if  SO YOU THINK  runs in the arc @ its current antepost price of 5.8  this is the LAY of the year , an absolute corker , this has as much chance of winning as me if i was wearing a straight jacket and comedy slippers and i will happily empty my whole account and ask everyone i know to lend me more , this will be the easiest money i can make since time began!!!!!.
So i will do two full race cards ( ascot and fontwell ) for you guys tmrw and hopefully you can make enough to have a great weekend !.

Wednesday, 28 September 2011

Some calmness today ...

Yesterday was quite a mental day , today i think i will take you in a different direction and we'll take a look a look at 2yr old only races ( maidens and nurseries )  , you have to garner a different mindset when tackling maidens and 2 yr old races in general as most are big babies and most improve , you have to look at so many components , age ( old / young ) , breeding , ground type ( coupled with breeding ) , trainer form , jockey , track , distance and any current form.....so a lot to think about....so lets see whats on offer today...

SALISBURY

13:30
BACK - CIRCUS MONDAO - 3rd @ 9.62 ( hit 1.6 in running )
LAY - JOURNALISTIC - £250 @ 3.45 ( keep bet ) @ BFSP - 2nd @ 4.81( hit 1.05 in running ) = Won £250
BETA BACK - ROCK BAND - Unplaced
**Very tricky , with this being very open , i simply have to lay Journalistic as i have it against at least 5 viable alternatives and @ 4.2 i have it just about right ( although i would feel happier having 3.45 ) i have left my bet in as a keep bet and not a BTL as i am not convinced it will show enough to contribute to a price collapse in running , im not even sure the bet will get matched tbh and a big part of me is saying just lay at 4.2!!.
for the backers , rock band is selected on the basis that hannon has a lot of big priced second strings winning or getting placed and whilst this line proves profitable it will nearly always come out on top in the ratings registrar , circus mondao is an expensive relative of " one cool cat " ( champion 2 yr old ) as well as others and even with the rather dodgy ajtebi onboard should be good enough to figure here , that said it would not surprise me if burnham , fine resolve or estrela were involved in the finish.

1stOxford Charley (USA)12/1Full Result  
2ndJournalistic (USA)7/2
3rdCircus Mondao (USA)8/1



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14:00

BACK - DEDICATION - Unplaced
LAY - GOLDEN JUBILEE - £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced @ 5.92 = Won £250
BETA BACK - CUBANITA - 2nd @ 19.49
**A more straight forward maiden to grapple as it is considerably weaker in depth , the three hannon runners are all over looked as they appear to be very average , cubanita is worth a double check as beckett is not averse to coming up with the odd decent 2 yr old , dont like the breeding of the zarooni runner , bonfire is interesting and could run a decent race and the meehan runner , well his always come on for the 2nd run , i would only consider one of his first time out if it was heavily supported.

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14:30

BACK - FROG HOLLOW - £300 WIN ( NAP ) - 1st @ 2.18 = WON £354
LAY - WASEEM FARIS - £300 @ 7.4 ( LOTD )  - Unplaced = Won £300
BETA BACK - LORD OF THE SHADOWS - 2nd @ 2.88
**This is effectively a 2 horse race as none of the others have a hope in hell!! , lord of the shadows looks a bit exposed now and is probably ( for now ) as good as he will be , Frog Hollow however looks like a horse on the up and could prove to be very useful , nise run ( 3rd ) in a listed event first time out , then scooted up in a CD maiden after having to check , switch , swap run on and accelerate , all the attributes a decent sort needs , has a good attitude and im very sweet on this today.

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15:35

BACK - GUSTO - Unplaced
LAY - IHSAS - £250 @ 2.9 - Unplaced = Won £250
BETA BACK - ARTISTIC JEWEL - 1st @ 3.05
**Only the 4 runners left in this and all four have a squeak , however ihsas has only run on the poly , arnold lane is not gteed to like the ground.
So we are left With Gusto the obv form choice , dropping slightly in grade and improving artistic jewel , this should be a great race to trade.

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NEWCASTLE

14:10

BACK - GABRIAL THE GREAT - Unplaced
LAY - CHOISAN - £250 @ BFSP - 2nd @ 7/2 = Won £250
BETA BACK - DEIA SUNRISE - 1st @ 5.0
**I cannot see how the thoroughly exposed Choisan will ever be good enough against some decent sorts , it is was it is ...and thats not much , with a few arab entries and a couple of interesting newcomers this is going to won by a fairly forward decent sort , gabrial the great comes here full of hype and hope , an expensive " dr " purchase , when these are favoured they will go well....

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14:40 

BACK - TALK OF THE NORTH - 3rd @ 9/4
LAY - PETER ANDERS - £250 @ BFSP - unplaced = Won £250
BETA BACK - SHOLAAN - 2nd @ 11/4
**Straight forward maiden here , nothing really stand out so go with the form choices , strange race , if one of the favs doesnt win this then i think it will be a roughie...

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15:10

BACK - VAN DE ART - 1st @ 3.25
LAY - KHALEEJIYA - £250 @ BFSP - 2nd = Won £250
BETA BACK - PERSHIDA - Unplaced
**The quality is starting to slacken off now lol , obv only so many to go around!! , again Van de art is the obv form choice and really shouldn't be overlooked , Khaleejiya has a good 4 lengths to make up with the selection on their Yarmouth form and there is no reason for this to be turned around today.

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NOTTINGHAM

14:20

BACK - RHAGORI - 2nd @ 4/5
LAY - TAFFE - £250 @ BFSP - 1st @ 7.78 = Lost £1,700-00
BETA BACK - GLEN ELLYN - Unplaced ( but good trade matched )
**Rhagori has easily the best form on offer with its run behind firdaws , taffe looks only moderate and De Sousa is here to ride a couple on orders so Glen Ellyn could be interesting....

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15:55

BACK - BAILEYS OVER ICE - Unplaced
LAY - FARLEAZE - ( NBB ) - Unplaced
BETA BACK - KEY GOLD - Unplaced
**Not a lot to say regarding this other than ..move along...

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Right thats it , all done ( the 17:00 is a piece of shit ) , this is my take it events today , although i can see me doing some hard core trading s the 2yr old races are great for trading...what ever ya do today , stay lucky , be happy and healthy ;-))...
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Total P n L for the day = £454-00 Profit ( shame about Taffe , but shit happens!! ) , still a profit is a profit..

Tuesday, 27 September 2011

Nice result to round off the day...


Sorry...

To anyone that took my advice and traded on dark lane , ran like a complete dog....never in it at any stage...

Additional

I have now placed £25 trades on every single race today ( bar dark lanes which is a £275 trade ) , this is an experiment , maybe costly , but i am now running a full System  trial on the new trading platform i will post the results up at 6pm....
i will update now as we go thru the day , i will post pre race backs and then post ( sometimes pre ) race shows , win or lose i will post all from chepstow and ayr...

1. Karuga wins , - £2.93 profit
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2.Red Tyke wins = £2.38 Profit
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3. Failed , never went lower enough , Lost £25 ( no snapshot ) , this was a bit ummy and arry as the race failed to reach the score requirements for trading, however a loss is a loss and in order me to to get true analysis and a data over view i must use every race , but the thing with this is you cannot afford more than a 1/10 loss ratio , i may trade a couple ( with shots in running if i think the race is running bad ).

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4.£2.77 PROFIT

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5. £3.49 Profit
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6. Ran an absolute dog of a race , never traded anywhere near what i needed , lost £275 on this as this was my max trade race for this experiment , im already thinking i may need to tweak as im gonna show a massive loss on this regardless....fuckety fuck fuck...i have been trialling this for so long now with stellar results it was always going to be the way that the moment i decide to showcase this it goes tits up!!...we will continue...we will perservere , we will WIN!!
ALTHOUGH I HAVE MANAGED TO GREEN UP HERE..;-)

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7. £5.95 profit
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8.£3.53 PROFIT
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9.£5 profit
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12. Won £6.25
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13. ( see 19 )
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14. £5.61 PROFIT ( pre refusetosurrender lay )
after refusetosurrender lay .....
£370 Profit on this..happy days!
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17. £2.85 Profit
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18.  £3.38 Profit
in race i traded this and made an additional £863 ;-)

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19. just managed to make £2.99 on this... ( see 13 )
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20. another from Sedgefield ( another pre race win )
£3.13 Profit
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removed a few , not because they lost but because i have to go out, problems...they never cease , but overall im a very happy chappy today and tmrw i will be post up my 5 best trades with pics ,....at full stakes...!!

Feeling ...

Considerably more chipper today ;-) ( Morning Patrick ) ,  amazing what difference a day away makes ,  feeling quite refreshed and relaxed today , got a lot done yesterday , The racing is the usual shizzle for a tuesday , There are 3 races that maybe of interest tho today , all at AYR ,.. ( chepstow members only ;-( )

1. 14:40 - MISTRESS OF ROME - BACK - £200 @ 1.91 - 1st @ 4/7 = Won £182-00

2. 15:10 - BERBICE - EW BACK - £75 W/P  @ BFSP - Unplaced = Lost £150-00

3. 16:10 - REFUSETOSURRENDER - LAY - £300 @ 4.6 - Unplaced = Won £300

__________________________________________________________P n L = £332-00

Thats all for today , like i say its a slow day , no real trading from me today , put a few bets in place , all set up  , now time to finish a few jobs around the house ,.... every time i finish a job the boss gives me a new list with new jobs!!....
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For the budding traders out there ( willow if your still alive!! ) , i would suggest you look at the 15:00 @ CHEPSTOW , the horse in mention is DARK LANE , personally i would advise backing this for £250 @ 12 and laying £350 @ 8.6 for a £100 green , this is the perfect race to test your trading skills in....
- Result - did absolutely nothing , very very disappointing!!..;-(
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One question to my readers and followers , could you drop by and tell me what your betting status is? , ie , full time  , part time , fun , living , trader , backer , layer , mixed....i may be able to use this info to better gear certain days of the blog to what the majority are doing...
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Actually as i go along and keep typing i find that there is actually loads i want to say , put , show ...if you are punting today and have a question , drop us a comment and i will reply as soon as i can ( they get sent as emails straight to my iphone ) ,....in the next hour or so before racing starts anyone fancy a placepot challenge for chepstow?...anyone alive today ( or just perving at shaved muffs? )....
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Monday, 26 September 2011

Feeling...

Quite down at mo , the more melancholic side of me has reared its ugly head , got a busy week in front of me sorting out all the membership details ready for the start of the new year which for me starts on Sat , as usual im leaving everything until the last minute , the problem is now i really feel like i cant be bothered , i feel like just fucking off and hiding ( somewhere hot ) , i feel so lacking in purpose , lacking direction and have little motivation for anything....
So today ( and probably for the rest of the week ) i have neither the time or the inclination to reproduce any of my race cards,,,( considering only PK seems to be following , i doubt they will be missed ).
The 1 blog bet i will be having today tho will be a MAX LAY in the 14:20 @ Ffos Las on MILLION FACES - £300 @ 3.3 , this is a ridic price , i have watched its last race and assessed all known information and cannot understand why this is so low? , Sheer Vanity looks the most likeliest winner with Gabrials Bounty and Night Angel the two most likely to make him work for it.....
So until i find my mojo , or have decided ( very quickly ) what i am going to do for the next year its Adios...

RESULT = Million Faces - 3rd @ 7/4f ( well beaten ) = Won £300

Sunday, 25 September 2011

Smiling on a Sunday...!!

Yes i am in deed , reason ? , this is the first sunday i have not woken to find my bankroll and balances dented by the saturday monster!! , yes the last 4 saturdays ( i dont know why ? ) have been rather bad for me , every other day fine , but saturdays , i lose , go chasing , lose my brains and generally end up with a big hole in my balance , then takes me all week to replace it and earn my wage!!...so thankfully today is a good day , that said i have been spending a considerable amount of time , trading only , using the new trading platform i have devised and so far it has shown to be highly effective ( 90+% ) so that is great , had a good result with my footie acca yesterday which was very much welcomed ( first footie win this season ) , although yesterday i did make a few erroneous decisions , firstly , this is the main throat sticker for me , why after all my data and speed ratings quite clearly showed lightning pearl to be the quickest horse ( far superior to best terms ) did i not back it outright? , why did i decide to go with my " gut " rather than use the systems that are serving me so well? , whats the point of having years worth of data and various systems in place if im going to ignore it and just start guessing!! , that was 1 of a few yesterday , and yes i did have a word with myself!.
Hopefully Bet ( un ) fair have sorted out their API problem , was a fucking nightmare yesterday , markets kept crashing , fairbot couldnt connect , refreshing every 5 secs.....abs ridic...!!.
Arsenal finally showed they can still play a bit every now and then with a rather tedious ( 3-0 was flattering ) win over bolton ( we only got going when they went to 10 men ) , not going to hold my breath waiting for the new dawn of football at the emirates!.
Man Utd showed they play differently with no rooney , chelsea are still bang there and man city are an enigma....However the mighty ( once ) toon are still going great guns , well done them lads!!
Todays racing , well its pretty much standard fare for a sunday ( monday , tuesday , wednesday ).....so today i thought id post the CURRAGH card for a laugh ;-)...

CURRAGH

14:10
BACK - MISSISSIPPI - £100 EW @ 8.0 / 3.5 - Unplaced @ 14.0 ( hit 4.2 ) = lost £200
LAY - LANETT LADY - £250 @ BFSP ( MAY TAKE < 8.0 if enough available early doors ) - Unplaced = won £250
BETA BACK - SHUKOV - unplaced
**A big ol 25 runner maiden to start the day , for me there are only 3 horses to concentrate on , firstly Nephrite ( expected to be quite useful from o'brien ) , Shukov ( the form and speed ratings selection ) and MISSISSIPPI , this i have backed as i have been given a nod from a very useful source who has a particularly high strike rate when he has issued advice , you must remember tho that nothing is gteed , it could run a stinker , the jockey may cock up , it may be tenderly handled first time out , could miss break , but what its been showing at home suggests otherwise the workwatchers reckon its a 90+ rated horse just trotting around Kildare!, so you pays yer money , yer takes yer chance...good luck.
*As expected , the horse i WAS going to back ( nephrite ) wins easy at an amazing 8.0+ !! , Mississippi ran no sort of race whatsoever , how very fucking shit , the moles record is very good but this one was , well i wont say a dog but looked very average.....sorry to all that backed it!!...
**Made £50 PROFIT on the race.
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14:40

BACK - CHEVIOT - unplaced
LAY - FLIC A FLAC - ( NO BLOG BET ) - unplaced
BETA BACK - THATS A FRET - unplaced @ 100.00 ( hit 34.0 )
**Tough race to call made of mainly disappointing sorts and a race i dont really want to think to heavily on , thats a fret won this last year and has a cracking chance of making the frame at big odds , cheviot is one of only a few that is in great form...tough race, small stakes only...

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15:10

BACK - PRINCES SINEAD - 2nd @ 6.03 ( just beaten in dying strides , hit 1.3 )
LAY - REMEMBER ALEXANDER - £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced = Won £250
BETA BACK - MADHMOONAH - unplaced
**I cannot look passed either of the two mentioned as they are quite simply streets ahead on my speed ratings , for something else to win it will have to improve enormously or run way better than previously ( is also classed as improving , although it may not have improved since last run, just that its now running to its potential ) , to back anything else you are " gambling " on an expected outcome rather than what a horse as actually achieved , i know a lot of horses improve for a change in distance , weight , jockey etc , but sometimes you just have to go with whats in front of ya and this is one of those races.

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15:45

BACK - CATCH THE EYE - unplaced
LAY - HUJAYLEA - ( NO BLOG BET ) - non runner -
BETA BACK - DEFINING YEAR - unplaced
**Tough little stakes race with a very interesting runner with a ridic name....Bancnuanaheireann  ( wd commentator with that one ) , waited with till it was 4 before seeing a race course then trots up by 10 lengths , i just cant rate this as it could be anything ., so have decided to just swerve this altogether...although come race time if i can get 8.2 or higher i will trade this in running..

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16:20

BACK - AKEED MOFEED - £300 WIN ( NAP ) - 2nd....sigh!! ( shit ride ) = Lost £300
LAY - FURNERS GREEN - £300 @ 6.6 - unplaced = won £300
BETA BACK - ATHENS - unplaced
**This is all about Akeed Mofeed , J Oxx has previously won this race with the likes of Azamour and See The Stars , this is a weak renewal and none here look to be ( at present ) in that class however AM looks different class to the field he faces today , a few 7/10 o'brien runners , a couple of average sorts form bolger and a let down from weld , imo if AM doesnt win this OXX will be a very unhappy chappy , for me this is a super confident bet.
£0 on race
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16:55

BACK - RAYDARI - unplaced
LAY - SUN DISC - ( NO BLOG BET ) - 1st
BETA BACK - BOULAY - 2nd @ 14 ( hit 2.2 )
**Horrid little apprentice race , stick with B A CURTIS , he is a very decent jockey ( horse may be shite , but hes still the best here ).

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17:25

BACK - EVA'S TIME -
LAY - ANSAAB - ( NO BLOG BET ) -
BETA BACK - GUESSING -
**" Getting out stakes " and its a motherfucking maiden!! , come the fuck on race planners..why o why have a fucking maiden for your last race??...THIS IS TOUGH, ...if im only marginally down i would have a small dutch on these , if im a lot down i would be on my way to the pub and if im up at this stage im gonna consider myself very fucking lucky and happy!!.....

________________________________________________________P n L = £
Whatever you do , chill , relax , enjoy your Sunday and keep smiling!!..good luck all !
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Saturday, 24 September 2011

Good Morning , its Cambridgeshire day..happy punting!!


Good Morning one n All , some good quality racing today and a good day for being a bookie me thinks , the early signs are that its looking a tough ol day out there , so today i will be doing 2 race cards for your displeasure ( well its getting towards the end of the month , the members are all well up and a bit of sharesie is only fair ;-) ) , so i will be doing NEWMARKET AND 1 other , what shall be the second one?? , you tell me , is there a meeting you would like covering? , if so you have 40 mins to tell me.....

Can anyone tell me the horse above?......todays main race is a clue?....

NEWMARKET

14:05
BACK - WROTE - 3rd ( unplaced ) ( 5.92/3.2 )
LAY - TENTH STAR - NO BLOG LAY - 2nd ( well beaten )
BETA BACK - FARHAAN - Unplaced ( travelled well , hit 1.6 , flattened out )
**WoW , what a tricky start , on my speed ratings only 1/10th of a second splits both wrote and farhaan , and as they are the only horses that have proven themselves over the trip they get their respective nominations , i just cannot see tenth star getting involved but it would not surprise me if it did , yes there is a lot of contradiction there , this is a very tricky race , however like yesterday i feel i have found a profit enabling bet and yes its the same scenario as one from yesterday , PLACE BACK both Farhaan and Wrote @ 2.2 and 2.32 for a 14% or 29.2% profit on stake ( ie: £100 returns either £114 or £129.20 ) this in my opinion ( imo ) is absolutely nailed on i will not have it that one of these will not be getting either 1st or 2nd , that would shock me , so i am going to drip feed £500 on both and hopefully make a nice little bit to start the day off , i cant have this as a blog bet as im unsure exactly how much will get taken , but this is the idea.....if you can , then lump on!.
*So all the profits from yesterdays monster nailed on gteed free money bet have been spunked away on this one and a bit more , at the 2f pole i was looking at 1st and 2nd , but daddy long legs carried on, ran on and ran well , farhaan had nothing more to give and wrote just got caught in the final strides for 2nd to come in 3rd....personally , quite a disappointing start to the day.

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14:35

BACK - BEST TERMS - £250 @ 2.3 - Unplaced ( ran a shocker )
LAY - SHUMOOS - NO BLOG LAY - Unplaced
BETA BACK - LIGHTNING PEARL - 1st @ 3.2
**Tough race again and i know all the dogs are barking for Best Terms , but it is ( on my speed ratings  ) only fractionally ahead of Shumoos and is 1/2 sec behind Lightning Pearl , now it has ( best terms ) some very smart and progressive form and certainly looks the one to beat and looking through the field im struggling to find reasons to lay it or even bet against it , i think shumoos although a decent filly is far too inconsistent to have in this race ( i do have a soft spot for it ) and lightning pearl seems to suffer a bit at the 4f pole against best terms a rallying , running on effort will not be good enough , so i will after great consideration say that the 2.3 on best terms is great value and should be snapped up.
*Lost - £250
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15:10

BACK - ALANZA - unplaced
LAY - SAPHRESA - £250 @ 3.2 - 1st ( won easily ) - Lost £550
BETA BACK - TIMEPIECE - unplaced
**A cracking renewal of the Sun Chariot and the multi winning saphresa once again takes her slot as defending champion and is the obv favourite , however its speed figures since its last win have it very much on the downgrade ( not saying hes suddenly a bad horse ) and i only have it down as 4th , yes 4th ( im not going mad ) best , Alanza is the only horse in this field with unknown amounts of improvement and timepiece is easily the most likely to run to form , at 3.2 i think the fav is well worth taking on , if it does win , so be it , but i dont think it will.
*why o why do i do so shit on saturdays!!...

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15:50

BACK - ALBAQAA - £50 ew  @ bfsp - unplaced
LAY - MAN OF ACTION - £200 @ 10.5 - unplaced = won £200
BETA BACK - MAQARAAT - £50 ew @ bfsp - unplaced
**Typically mental running of the cambridgeshire , i will be having 2 x fun ew bets just to be involved with my lay covering the stakes , man of action won last time but is a dog and owes me...just play and enjoy this one....( although i will be gutted if questioning wins as that was involved in a dream from yesterday...dont ask! )...won £0 on race....
**Betfair API HAS GONE OFF and ruined my day , although currently up by a good bit, the rest of the day will all have to be done manually , betfair...what a set of arseholes...!!

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16:25

BACK - PIMPERNEL - 1st @ 3.83
LAY - HAWFINCH - £250 @ BFSP - unplaced = won £250
BETA BACK - RESPONSIVE £250 @ 2.64 ( Place Market ) - unplaced = lost £250
** On the ratings there is virtually nothing splitting the top 5 here , incredibly close , Pimpernel is a tentative selection , however Responsive interests me greatly as R Hannon ( his boss ) has 2 runners here yet Hughes ( responsive jockey ) has chosen / been asked / ?? to ride , this i find fascinating as he hasnt ridden her before yet elects to now when both the hannon runners have a higher speed rating...?? , so im gonna have a play in the place market with this one.
won on race = £0
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17:00

BACK - BONNIE BRAE - Unplaced
LAY - CITRUS STAR - £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced = Won £250
BETA BACK - GOLDEN DELICIOUS - Unplaced
**A very tough h'cap with mostly out of form , too much weight , running wrong trip ..so i the speed selections have had to be altered here as i am looking for only recent relevant form and these two came out tops in their respective groups...citrus star?? , why is this so short? , i wouldnt make this fav in a seller let alone a tough 7f hcap!!

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17:35

BACK - ANATOLIN - 1st @ 2.52 ( get in!!! )
LAY - BORUG - £250 @ BFSP - unplaced = won £250
BETA BACK - TMAAM - 2nd @ 3.07
**A Great race to have as the getting out stakes , if i am down here i will be having a massive bet on Anatolin as it won very nicely over 1m2f last time and looks to be upto easily getting this 1m4f trip , Tmaam won its maiden over 1m4f however was getting reminders from the 1m pole and looked a hard ride , the others are outclassed and not good enough , borug would have a squeak if he ran right upto his very best , however hes been so out of form lately i just cant see it , for me the fav Anatolin is a cracking bet.

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 Also just done this 4 fold football acca ;-)..

1Chelsea v Swansea (Backing  Chelsea @ 1.19)
2Liverpool v Wolves (Backing  Liverpool @ 1.36)
3Wigan v Tottenham (Backing  Tottenham @ 1.8)
4Stoke v Man Utd (Backing  Man Utd @ 1.61)

Pays 4.75....pretty good value imo..

Friday, 23 September 2011

Morning All....

Gonna post up another NEWMARKET CARD....Just on with it now......;-)
...Right , well , it looks like another tough day and i will just try and do the best i can.....

NEWMARKET

13:15
BACK - RAKASA - Unplaced ( virtually pulled up from the stalls, ran no race )
LAY - MINIDRESS - £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced @ 6.6 = Won £250
BETA BACK - QUESTING - 2nd @ 6.76 ( ran a great race hit 1.07 in running )
**This race has attracted some very useful sorts and finding the winner is tough , however i do feel i have a profit enabling bet here which i am quite happy to say is " NAILED ON " , backing both RAKASA and Questioning in the place market @ 2.12 each pays  6.4% on stake , this is guaranteed FREE MONEY!!!! , i simply wont have it that one of these will not place , im fucking possible!! , my suggestion to you is forget about everything today , sell your house , sell your wife , sell your soul!!...and lump the fuck on!!!
Liquidity is an issue with these so just try and get what you can , i will be looking to nail £1000 on each ( Not a blog bet as i am unsure as to how much i will get matched ) , split stakes laying for an even match , but i may have to just drip feed it over a course of a couple of hours....**Questing 2nd , Gamble landed!!...;-)**

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13:50

BACK - DARK PROMISE - 1st @ 5.48
LAY - ELECTRA STAR - £250 @ BFSP - UNPLACED = WON £250
BETA BACK - SETA - 2nd @ 3.32 ( hit 1.55 )
**My speed ratings have these two well clear ( and it shows in the markets ) , electra star has some nice looking form figures but is just not very quick , certainly not in this grade with these types around and imo will not even place , that said most of this field are 1m 40+ sec's horses so i can imagine the finale being very closely fought with the winner streaking away...the battle will be for the places!.

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14:25

BACK - TAZAHUM - Unplaced
LAY - ( Place Lay ) - PREMIER LOCO @ 2.84 For  £250 - 2nd = Lost £460-00 ( only just ;-( )
BETA BACK - EMERALD COMMANDER - Unplaced
**Tough race and one that i think will be run at a real pace as there are few suspect stayers here , primarily Premier Loco , a great horse and a grand servant to the yard , however he is just below the level he has mostly been racing at , just below these and barely stays a true run 1m , he will look like hes bang there for 7f then weaken as he usually does so a place lay ( only top two ) seems the obvious call , the winner however is a different story , poets voice has too many questions to answer so has to be left out and Librano's best races have been over shorter so the form horses have risen to the top.
* never looked like getting placed at any stage until final 150 yrds ;-(

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15:00

BACK - LYRIC OF LIGHT - 1st @ 3.30
LAY - FALLEN FOR YOU - ( NO BLOG BET ) - Unplaced -
BETA BACK - FIRDAWS - 3rd @ 4.4
**A very tough race to split the top 4 ( albamara has to come into it ) , the selections here have been arrived upon solely using my speed ratings platform.

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15:35

BACK - CAYUGA - Unplaced
LAY - MR CHURCHILL - £250 @ 8.8 - Unplaced = Won £250
BETA BACK - ELLAAL - 2nd @ 6.16
**I know for a fact that Mr Churchill is no superstar and have layed accordingly , the winner is a complete pin sticker , follow breeding , the stable , the jockey whatever floats your boat....this is a guessing game!.

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16:10

BACK - MYPLACELATER - Unplaced
LAY - ( Place Lay ) SIRVINO - £250 @ 2.66 and ( Win Lay ) £350 @ 5.9 - Unplaced = WON £600
BETA BACK - MAHOOBA - 1st @ 4.1
**Awful race , however , Sirvino is no better than an average H'capper so it would be a major surprise if this bay gelding was anywhere near good enough in this company even if the rest are very much out of sorts....

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16:45

BACK - DOLPHIN ROCK - Unplaced
LAY - GALIANDO ( NO BLOG BET ) - Unplaced
BETA BACK - JEWELLED - Unplaced
**This race is a bookies benefit race.

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17:20

BACK - AMBALA - Unplaced
LAY - VITA LIKA ( NO BLOG BET ) - 1st @ 4.11
BETA BACK - FUJIN DANCER - placed
**What an awful race to have as the " getting out stakes "...sigh , if your down by a lot at this stage lump on and cross your fingers , if your only marginally down then dutch both and prey , if your up at this stage then run for the hills!!!....

_________________________________________________P n L = £890.00 
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Thursday, 22 September 2011

Its the start of the Newmarket champions meeting ..

And i have decided to share a brief card with all you lovely folks today....
Nothing to really blog per se about at the minute , everything is ticking over nicely and everything is going the way one would like it to be  , still busy on other fronts although i am thinking about possibly expanding the pro site as i have received rather more interest than i had first anticipated , last years membership was capped at 15 , however with ( to date ) 57 enquiries ( new year starts oct 1st ) i may have to develop a more professional line , may have to think about help , so many questions to answer , may just leave it in its current state...
Anyway , what all you guys been upto? , been very quiet on the comments ? , whats everyone doing these days? , hows all yer betting going? , hows life in general?....
Dont forget if your having a punt and would like any race specific advice im here all day  ( although im not a genie and cant gtee that everything i say wins/loses , if that was the case id be a multi millionaire and chatting from my yacht in the med ;-)) ) .
I can only say it as i see it using the stats and systems i have been devising and using from the last 10 years...sometimes great , sometimes awful , never dull ;-) .
Right lets look at NEWMARKET.....

14:10
BACK - ALMAAS - 3rd @ 2.52
LAY - IMPERIAL ORDER - £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced = Won £250
BETA BACK - WAAFID - Unplaced
**A trappy and typically tough back end Newmarket maiden , this time of year starts to see quite a few of the big guns coming out to play , the ones held back ready for a busy 3yr old campaign , and with only Almaas having any rateable form it has to be the speed ratings pick , however it really would not surprise me if any one of the newcomers won as its quite often a guessing game , moonship , waafid , ryehouse and weaam are all bred to be useful , so nominating one on " expectations " is very dubious , although i will say it would be a major shock if the exposed hannon ( regardless of his hot form ) runner was good enough to even place let alone win , max lay .
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14:45

BACK - GHOSTWRITING - Unplaced
LAY - MAGIC CITY - Unplaced
BETA BACK - KID SUITOR - Unplaced
**A poor nursery for Newmarket standard at this time of year and from the available stock i dont think magic city is by any means one of hannons leading lights and is a confident lay , ghostwriting if comfortably getting the 1m should be head and shoulders over these but a lot rests on his ability to get this trip , its a leraning curve for most ( if not all ) , kid suitor however has won over 1m and looks the pick ( imo ) of the hannon runners and the very useful s levey  in the saddle looks to have a leading chance , i cannot confidently say many positives for the rest this is not a race to get too heavily involved with....( no blog bet ).
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15:20
BACK - CILL RIALAIG - 3rd @ 4.81
LAY - MOHEDIAN LADY - 1st @ 4.2 ( bullet dodged!! )
BETA BACK - SPIN - Unplaced
**Race full of very inconsistent sorts and horses that have been racing over a variety of distances , all have nibbles of form which you can apply to a case that could easily be  made , so these selections are purely based on the ratings systems without any input from me. ( no blog bet ) .
i must also note that at 34.0 Parvana does interest me in the BTL market...( hit 17.5 )
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15:55
BACK - FARRAAJ - 2nd @ 11/8
LAY - ZIP TOP - £250 @ 10.0 ( KEEP BET ) - 3rd @ 25.0 ( never nearer , bet unmatched )
BETA BACK - ELECTRICIAN - Unplaced
**Tough race and one in which i desperately wanted to scream " FARRAAJ!!! "  is a monster lump on!! , however as much as i like this beast i simply cannot as on my speed ratings i have it down as only 3rd best ( 3rd/4th/5th very tight and marginal ) , i was tempted to even have as it my lay however zip top is several seconds slower than most and is a hugely confident lay selection and as such has attracted the support from the blog bank , if farraaj does fail ( as i have a sneaky feeling it will ) then i feel the fastest horse ( with my ratings ) should be well placed to take advantage , ELECTRICIAN , and at  2.24 ( place market ) i think this is outstanding , i am on the verge of nominating this as my standout nap bet but it falls short by just 0.5 points...so just stands as a very good bet.
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16:30
BACK - NEHAAM - 2nd @ 3.3
LAY - TIMES UP - 1ST @ 3.37 ( Won very easy , 2 bullets dodged )
BETA BACK - CHILEBERTA KING - ( 11.5 / 8.6 ) ** - WON £100 - 3rd @ 11.29
**A tough 2m race with most pretty gteed to get this trip in whatever ground , i think Nehaam has the extra touch of class here, enough to get this bay gelding home in front , Chilberta King has some very useful C and D form however is rather an in and out performer , times up for me wont stay , dont like it at all and it would never interest me at any price.
**I have had a BTL in this race , Chilberta King , i have backed for £300 @ 13.0 and will be laying for £400 @ 9.8 for £100 profit ( unless it wins then a bit less ).
*** This bet will only be placed 5 mins prior to race and maybe subject to change regarding the price , the bet will still stand with the same % movement as long as it is still between 11.5 - 18.5 )
**** Instantly matched = £100 PROFIT.
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17:05
BACK - SWISS DREAM - 2nd @ 5.3
LAY - MADANY - £250 @ 7.6 - NON - RUNNER
BETA BACK - DREAMACHA  - Unplaced
**Tough sprint with the HQ loving Swiss Dream in attendance and coming with a massive chance , it always pays to stick with sprinters in form and with that plus other data Dreamacha gets the nod as best ew option , Madany is a stone cold dog and will never prob win another race again , slower than the starter lay lay lay...
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17:40
BACK - BOOGIE SHOES - 1st @ 4.76 ( Getting out stakes Winner!!! .-) )
LAY - LOVING SPIRIT - £250 @ 7.0 - Unplaced = Won £250
BETA BACK - POLISH WORLD - Unplaced
**Boogie shoes should be ( if running to anywhere near his proper form ) different gravy and is a very nice to have in the getting out stakes , polish world carries some quite decent form into this and is a big price  ( imo ) and is worth consideration in both the EW  markets and the BTL markets.
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Whatever you do today , stay happy , be lucky and keep smiling ;-))
____________________________________________ P n L = £600-00
A perfect day,with all the right decisions made ;-)

Wednesday, 21 September 2011

Quick Weds Update...

Goodwood 14:00 - GENIUS STEP - Up in trip after running on ( after a slow and green start ) over 6f and coming 3rd fto , this 7f trip now looks ideal , however i still wouldnt say that this is a bank job only that its my opinion that it shud hose up , i will be having ( blog bet ) a go for £500 @ 1.96 again with a lay set at 1.25 for £600 , only impel will be good enough , shomberg looks a 3yr old in waiting and the rest are here for a trip out..
In this race i will also be having a lay of £500 @ 7.0 on Expense Claim ( yes half my banks liability , however it wont win so its not an issue !! )......
- RESULT - GENIUS STEP - 1ST @ 2.72 = WON £ 313.50
- RESULT - EXPENSE CLAIM - UNPLACED = WON £500
Total Win = £813-50

Tuesday, 20 September 2011

Quick Tuesday update...

A horse which i feel if ever the term " dead cert " can be applied is running today , in the 14:20 FOLKSTONE , the horse is BILLYRAYSVALENTINE ( 1.7 ) , with Frankie in the plate this should hose up , it doesnt have to improve in fact it could run to a few lbs worse than lto and still win cosily , this my friends is imvho nailed on..lump on , for the blogs part , i have backed it from the blog account to the tune of £1000 @ 1.7 ( with a lay set in for £1000 @ 1.08 ) .
Result = 1st @ 1.51 = WON £589-00

Sunday, 18 September 2011

A Lovely Sunny Sunday Morning..

Its been a glorious morning so far , with a nice short price double up on the rugby with both England and Wales winning although Wales made hard work of their win.....and tbf England struggled a bit first half....
VIEWS on this please......
My view is ...well done , the dirty bastard headbutted him ( which is illegal ) , then when it restarted he floored him with a boomer!!..happy days and wd Floyd i say!!

On a more sour note my beloved Arsenal again showed they still cannot defend and invho i think its time for Wenger to go ,  we need a new approach , its now clear this one isnt working , thank you arsene , you have been great but your time is up......on the plus side , i layed blackburn at 1.03 for £1000 @ 4-2 with 8 mins left , then 2 mins later gooners score and the price as i had hoped jumped to 1.26 for an instant mega trade....happy days and a very nice £204 profit ;-), ( liability was only £30 , so really a bet to nothing ).....

Today's football ,

Man Utd v Chelsea
Match Odds
Sun, 18 September 09:15BackLay
Man Utd

1.92

1.93
Chelsea

4.8

4.9
The Draw

3.65

3.7
Fulham v Man City
Match Odds
Sun, 18 September 15:00BackLay
Fulham

5.3

5.4
Man City

1.8

1.81
The Draw

3.8

3.85

Tottenham v Liverpool
Match Odds
Sun, 18 September 13:30BackLay
Tottenham

2.86

2.88
Liverpool

2.68

2.7
The Draw

3.55

3.6
Sunderland v Stoke
Match Odds
Sun, 18 September 15:00BackLay
Sunderland

2.52

2.54
Stoke

3.25

3.3
The Draw

3.3

3.35
...i think Man Utd should be layed @ 1.92 as the price will move dramatically if there is no early goal or chelsea score first , i think man city @ 1.8 is massive , i make this 1.4 LUMP ON!!, liverpool v spurs , this is a tough one to call , i would suggest a lay on spurs with a view to trading out , but at what price??...i will be monitoring this thru the day...and sunderland v stoke i think will be a draw ( but a spurs / stoke draw double is also a good bet , can hedge the draw in spurs match to offset cost of bet ).

On the Horse front , NH weekends are now back and todays action will involve a lot of trading in running ,  but i will highlight the first two at PLUMPTON for today's blog bets...

PLUMPTON

14:00
BACK - BATHWICK SCANNO ( NAP ) - £250 WIN @ BFSP - unp
LAY - ALFRAAMSEY - £250 @ BFSP - 1st @ 5.5 = Lost £1125-00
BETA BACKS - COLEBROOKE - 2nd
** thoroughly ridic race...fucking unreal..alfraamsey won easy but that was in part due to nothing else bothing in this race what so ever....awful summer jump race.....Lost £1375-00 
14:30

BACK - ARAB LEAGUE - 2nd @ 3.21
LAY - WULFRIDA - £250 @ BFSP - unplaced = won £250
BETA BACKS - TROVARE - 1st @ 5.92

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Have a nice chillaxed sunday folks....

** Blog will show a bad loss obv today...will be concentrating on the rest of todays , there will be no further updates till weds now as rest of today, mon and tues will be for the members only , see you all on weds...got some money to make now ttfn!
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