Thursday, 22 September 2011

Its the start of the Newmarket champions meeting ..

And i have decided to share a brief card with all you lovely folks today....
Nothing to really blog per se about at the minute , everything is ticking over nicely and everything is going the way one would like it to be  , still busy on other fronts although i am thinking about possibly expanding the pro site as i have received rather more interest than i had first anticipated , last years membership was capped at 15 , however with ( to date ) 57 enquiries ( new year starts oct 1st ) i may have to develop a more professional line , may have to think about help , so many questions to answer , may just leave it in its current state...
Anyway , what all you guys been upto? , been very quiet on the comments ? , whats everyone doing these days? , hows all yer betting going? , hows life in general?....
Dont forget if your having a punt and would like any race specific advice im here all day  ( although im not a genie and cant gtee that everything i say wins/loses , if that was the case id be a multi millionaire and chatting from my yacht in the med ;-)) ) .
I can only say it as i see it using the stats and systems i have been devising and using from the last 10 years...sometimes great , sometimes awful , never dull ;-) .
Right lets look at NEWMARKET.....

BACK - ALMAAS - 3rd @ 2.52
LAY - IMPERIAL ORDER - £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced = Won £250
**A trappy and typically tough back end Newmarket maiden , this time of year starts to see quite a few of the big guns coming out to play , the ones held back ready for a busy 3yr old campaign , and with only Almaas having any rateable form it has to be the speed ratings pick , however it really would not surprise me if any one of the newcomers won as its quite often a guessing game , moonship , waafid , ryehouse and weaam are all bred to be useful , so nominating one on " expectations " is very dubious , although i will say it would be a major shock if the exposed hannon ( regardless of his hot form ) runner was good enough to even place let alone win , max lay .


LAY - MAGIC CITY - Unplaced
**A poor nursery for Newmarket standard at this time of year and from the available stock i dont think magic city is by any means one of hannons leading lights and is a confident lay , ghostwriting if comfortably getting the 1m should be head and shoulders over these but a lot rests on his ability to get this trip , its a leraning curve for most ( if not all ) , kid suitor however has won over 1m and looks the pick ( imo ) of the hannon runners and the very useful s levey  in the saddle looks to have a leading chance , i cannot confidently say many positives for the rest this is not a race to get too heavily involved with....( no blog bet ).

BACK - CILL RIALAIG - 3rd @ 4.81
LAY - MOHEDIAN LADY - 1st @ 4.2 ( bullet dodged!! )
BETA BACK - SPIN - Unplaced
**Race full of very inconsistent sorts and horses that have been racing over a variety of distances , all have nibbles of form which you can apply to a case that could easily be  made , so these selections are purely based on the ratings systems without any input from me. ( no blog bet ) .
i must also note that at 34.0 Parvana does interest me in the BTL market...( hit 17.5 )

BACK - FARRAAJ - 2nd @ 11/8
LAY - ZIP TOP - £250 @ 10.0 ( KEEP BET ) - 3rd @ 25.0 ( never nearer , bet unmatched )
**Tough race and one in which i desperately wanted to scream " FARRAAJ!!! "  is a monster lump on!! , however as much as i like this beast i simply cannot as on my speed ratings i have it down as only 3rd best ( 3rd/4th/5th very tight and marginal ) , i was tempted to even have as it my lay however zip top is several seconds slower than most and is a hugely confident lay selection and as such has attracted the support from the blog bank , if farraaj does fail ( as i have a sneaky feeling it will ) then i feel the fastest horse ( with my ratings ) should be well placed to take advantage , ELECTRICIAN , and at  2.24 ( place market ) i think this is outstanding , i am on the verge of nominating this as my standout nap bet but it falls short by just 0.5 just stands as a very good bet.

BACK - NEHAAM - 2nd @ 3.3
LAY - TIMES UP - 1ST @ 3.37 ( Won very easy , 2 bullets dodged )
BETA BACK - CHILEBERTA KING - ( 11.5 / 8.6 ) ** - WON £100 - 3rd @ 11.29
**A tough 2m race with most pretty gteed to get this trip in whatever ground , i think Nehaam has the extra touch of class here, enough to get this bay gelding home in front , Chilberta King has some very useful C and D form however is rather an in and out performer , times up for me wont stay , dont like it at all and it would never interest me at any price.
**I have had a BTL in this race , Chilberta King , i have backed for £300 @ 13.0 and will be laying for £400 @ 9.8 for £100 profit ( unless it wins then a bit less ).
*** This bet will only be placed 5 mins prior to race and maybe subject to change regarding the price , the bet will still stand with the same % movement as long as it is still between 11.5 - 18.5 )
**** Instantly matched = £100 PROFIT.

BACK - SWISS DREAM - 2nd @ 5.3
LAY - MADANY - £250 @ 7.6 - NON - RUNNER
**Tough sprint with the HQ loving Swiss Dream in attendance and coming with a massive chance , it always pays to stick with sprinters in form and with that plus other data Dreamacha gets the nod as best ew option , Madany is a stone cold dog and will never prob win another race again , slower than the starter lay lay lay...

BACK - BOOGIE SHOES - 1st @ 4.76 ( Getting out stakes Winner!!! .-) )
LAY - LOVING SPIRIT - £250 @ 7.0 - Unplaced = Won £250
**Boogie shoes should be ( if running to anywhere near his proper form ) different gravy and is a very nice to have in the getting out stakes , polish world carries some quite decent form into this and is a big price  ( imo ) and is worth consideration in both the EW  markets and the BTL markets.
Whatever you do today , stay happy , be lucky and keep smiling ;-))
____________________________________________ P n L = £600-00
A perfect day,with all the right decisions made ;-)


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