Yesterday was quite a mental day , today i think i will take you in a different direction and we'll take a look a look at 2yr old only races ( maidens and nurseries ) , you have to garner a different mindset when tackling maidens and 2 yr old races in general as most are big babies and most improve , you have to look at so many components , age ( old / young ) , breeding , ground type ( coupled with breeding ) , trainer form , jockey , track , distance and any current form.....so a lot to think about....so lets see whats on offer today...
SALISBURY
13:30
BACK - CIRCUS MONDAO - 3rd @ 9.62 ( hit 1.6 in running )
LAY - JOURNALISTIC - £250 @ 3.45 ( keep bet ) @ BFSP - 2nd @ 4.81( hit 1.05 in running ) = Won £250
BETA BACK - ROCK BAND - Unplaced
**Very tricky , with this being very open , i simply have to lay Journalistic as i have it against at least 5 viable alternatives and @ 4.2 i have it just about right ( although i would feel happier having 3.45 ) i have left my bet in as a keep bet and not a BTL as i am not convinced it will show enough to contribute to a price collapse in running , im not even sure the bet will get matched tbh and a big part of me is saying just lay at 4.2!!.
for the backers , rock band is selected on the basis that hannon has a lot of big priced second strings winning or getting placed and whilst this line proves profitable it will nearly always come out on top in the ratings registrar , circus mondao is an expensive relative of " one cool cat " ( champion 2 yr old ) as well as others and even with the rather dodgy ajtebi onboard should be good enough to figure here , that said it would not surprise me if burnham , fine resolve or estrela were involved in the finish.
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14:00
BACK - DEDICATION - Unplaced
LAY - GOLDEN JUBILEE - £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced @ 5.92 = Won £250
BETA BACK - CUBANITA - 2nd @ 19.49
**A more straight forward maiden to grapple as it is considerably weaker in depth , the three hannon runners are all over looked as they appear to be very average , cubanita is worth a double check as beckett is not averse to coming up with the odd decent 2 yr old , dont like the breeding of the zarooni runner , bonfire is interesting and could run a decent race and the meehan runner , well his always come on for the 2nd run , i would only consider one of his first time out if it was heavily supported.
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14:30
BACK - FROG HOLLOW - £300 WIN ( NAP ) - 1st @ 2.18 = WON £354
LAY - WASEEM FARIS - £300 @ 7.4 ( LOTD ) - Unplaced = Won £300
BETA BACK - LORD OF THE SHADOWS - 2nd @ 2.88
**This is effectively a 2 horse race as none of the others have a hope in hell!! , lord of the shadows looks a bit exposed now and is probably ( for now ) as good as he will be , Frog Hollow however looks like a horse on the up and could prove to be very useful , nise run ( 3rd ) in a listed event first time out , then scooted up in a CD maiden after having to check , switch , swap run on and accelerate , all the attributes a decent sort needs , has a good attitude and im very sweet on this today.
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15:35
BACK - GUSTO - Unplaced
LAY - IHSAS - £250 @ 2.9 - Unplaced = Won £250
BETA BACK - ARTISTIC JEWEL - 1st @ 3.05
**Only the 4 runners left in this and all four have a squeak , however ihsas has only run on the poly , arnold lane is not gteed to like the ground.
So we are left With Gusto the obv form choice , dropping slightly in grade and improving artistic jewel , this should be a great race to trade.
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NEWCASTLE
14:10
BACK - GABRIAL THE GREAT - Unplaced
LAY - CHOISAN - £250 @ BFSP - 2nd @ 7/2 = Won £250
BETA BACK - DEIA SUNRISE - 1st @ 5.0
**I cannot see how the thoroughly exposed Choisan will ever be good enough against some decent sorts , it is was it is ...and thats not much , with a few arab entries and a couple of interesting newcomers this is going to won by a fairly forward decent sort , gabrial the great comes here full of hype and hope , an expensive " dr " purchase , when these are favoured they will go well....
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14:40
BACK - TALK OF THE NORTH - 3rd @ 9/4
LAY - PETER ANDERS - £250 @ BFSP - unplaced = Won £250
BETA BACK - SHOLAAN - 2nd @ 11/4
**Straight forward maiden here , nothing really stand out so go with the form choices , strange race , if one of the favs doesnt win this then i think it will be a roughie...
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15:10
BACK - VAN DE ART - 1st @ 3.25
LAY - KHALEEJIYA - £250 @ BFSP - 2nd = Won £250
BETA BACK - PERSHIDA - Unplaced
**The quality is starting to slacken off now lol , obv only so many to go around!! , again Van de art is the obv form choice and really shouldn't be overlooked , Khaleejiya has a good 4 lengths to make up with the selection on their Yarmouth form and there is no reason for this to be turned around today.
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NOTTINGHAM
14:20
BACK - RHAGORI - 2nd @ 4/5
LAY - TAFFE - £250 @ BFSP - 1st @ 7.78 = Lost £1,700-00
BETA BACK - GLEN ELLYN - Unplaced ( but good trade matched )
**Rhagori has easily the best form on offer with its run behind firdaws , taffe looks only moderate and De Sousa is here to ride a couple on orders so Glen Ellyn could be interesting....
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15:55
BACK - BAILEYS OVER ICE - Unplaced
LAY - FARLEAZE - ( NBB ) - Unplaced
BETA BACK - KEY GOLD - Unplaced
**Not a lot to say regarding this other than ..move along...
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Right thats it , all done ( the 17:00 is a piece of shit ) , this is my take it events today , although i can see me doing some hard core trading s the 2yr old races are great for trading...what ever ya do today , stay lucky , be happy and healthy ;-))...
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Total P n L for the day = £454-00 Profit ( shame about Taffe , but shit happens!! ) , still a profit is a profit..
SALISBURY
13:30
BACK - CIRCUS MONDAO - 3rd @ 9.62 ( hit 1.6 in running )
LAY - JOURNALISTIC - £250 @ 3.45 ( keep bet ) @ BFSP - 2nd @ 4.81( hit 1.05 in running ) = Won £250
BETA BACK - ROCK BAND - Unplaced
**Very tricky , with this being very open , i simply have to lay Journalistic as i have it against at least 5 viable alternatives and @ 4.2 i have it just about right ( although i would feel happier having 3.45 ) i have left my bet in as a keep bet and not a BTL as i am not convinced it will show enough to contribute to a price collapse in running , im not even sure the bet will get matched tbh and a big part of me is saying just lay at 4.2!!.
for the backers , rock band is selected on the basis that hannon has a lot of big priced second strings winning or getting placed and whilst this line proves profitable it will nearly always come out on top in the ratings registrar , circus mondao is an expensive relative of " one cool cat " ( champion 2 yr old ) as well as others and even with the rather dodgy ajtebi onboard should be good enough to figure here , that said it would not surprise me if burnham , fine resolve or estrela were involved in the finish.
| 1st | Oxford Charley (USA) | 12/1 | Full Result | |
| 2nd | Journalistic (USA) | 7/2 | ||
| 3rd | Circus Mondao (USA) | 8/1 |
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14:00
BACK - DEDICATION - Unplaced
LAY - GOLDEN JUBILEE - £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced @ 5.92 = Won £250
BETA BACK - CUBANITA - 2nd @ 19.49
**A more straight forward maiden to grapple as it is considerably weaker in depth , the three hannon runners are all over looked as they appear to be very average , cubanita is worth a double check as beckett is not averse to coming up with the odd decent 2 yr old , dont like the breeding of the zarooni runner , bonfire is interesting and could run a decent race and the meehan runner , well his always come on for the 2nd run , i would only consider one of his first time out if it was heavily supported.
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14:30
BACK - FROG HOLLOW - £300 WIN ( NAP ) - 1st @ 2.18 = WON £354
LAY - WASEEM FARIS - £300 @ 7.4 ( LOTD ) - Unplaced = Won £300
BETA BACK - LORD OF THE SHADOWS - 2nd @ 2.88
**This is effectively a 2 horse race as none of the others have a hope in hell!! , lord of the shadows looks a bit exposed now and is probably ( for now ) as good as he will be , Frog Hollow however looks like a horse on the up and could prove to be very useful , nise run ( 3rd ) in a listed event first time out , then scooted up in a CD maiden after having to check , switch , swap run on and accelerate , all the attributes a decent sort needs , has a good attitude and im very sweet on this today.
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15:35
BACK - GUSTO - Unplaced
LAY - IHSAS - £250 @ 2.9 - Unplaced = Won £250
BETA BACK - ARTISTIC JEWEL - 1st @ 3.05
**Only the 4 runners left in this and all four have a squeak , however ihsas has only run on the poly , arnold lane is not gteed to like the ground.
So we are left With Gusto the obv form choice , dropping slightly in grade and improving artistic jewel , this should be a great race to trade.
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NEWCASTLE
14:10
BACK - GABRIAL THE GREAT - Unplaced
LAY - CHOISAN - £250 @ BFSP - 2nd @ 7/2 = Won £250
BETA BACK - DEIA SUNRISE - 1st @ 5.0
**I cannot see how the thoroughly exposed Choisan will ever be good enough against some decent sorts , it is was it is ...and thats not much , with a few arab entries and a couple of interesting newcomers this is going to won by a fairly forward decent sort , gabrial the great comes here full of hype and hope , an expensive " dr " purchase , when these are favoured they will go well....
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14:40
BACK - TALK OF THE NORTH - 3rd @ 9/4
LAY - PETER ANDERS - £250 @ BFSP - unplaced = Won £250
BETA BACK - SHOLAAN - 2nd @ 11/4
**Straight forward maiden here , nothing really stand out so go with the form choices , strange race , if one of the favs doesnt win this then i think it will be a roughie...
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15:10
BACK - VAN DE ART - 1st @ 3.25
LAY - KHALEEJIYA - £250 @ BFSP - 2nd = Won £250
BETA BACK - PERSHIDA - Unplaced
**The quality is starting to slacken off now lol , obv only so many to go around!! , again Van de art is the obv form choice and really shouldn't be overlooked , Khaleejiya has a good 4 lengths to make up with the selection on their Yarmouth form and there is no reason for this to be turned around today.
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NOTTINGHAM
14:20
BACK - RHAGORI - 2nd @ 4/5
LAY - TAFFE - £250 @ BFSP - 1st @ 7.78 = Lost £1,700-00
BETA BACK - GLEN ELLYN - Unplaced ( but good trade matched )
**Rhagori has easily the best form on offer with its run behind firdaws , taffe looks only moderate and De Sousa is here to ride a couple on orders so Glen Ellyn could be interesting....
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15:55
BACK - BAILEYS OVER ICE - Unplaced
LAY - FARLEAZE - ( NBB ) - Unplaced
BETA BACK - KEY GOLD - Unplaced
**Not a lot to say regarding this other than ..move along...
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Right thats it , all done ( the 17:00 is a piece of shit ) , this is my take it events today , although i can see me doing some hard core trading s the 2yr old races are great for trading...what ever ya do today , stay lucky , be happy and healthy ;-))...
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Total P n L for the day = £454-00 Profit ( shame about Taffe , but shit happens!! ) , still a profit is a profit..
not nice to see taffe stuck in the middle of all that profit of yours tough luck but you came out the right end thats what is important p.k.
ReplyDeleteGood to see you coming out on top!
ReplyDeleteI made a small profit today also using the "Leeson Method" - keep doubling up until you get your winnings back.
HaHa the leeson method i like it , ;-) , but in truth that is a progressive staking plan used by many , if you have a big enough roll it can prove to be quite a useful tool , not for the feint hearted tho lol , cheers AL , hope you keep reading and winning ;-)
ReplyDeleteTaffe was the only losing bet i had all day , so yeah it was a bit of a sickner tbh , However i am very pleased with the strike rate currently being enjoyed by both my speed ratings and beta backs , and another super nap bet wins!! , so all the signs are good.
ReplyDelete