Wednesday, 28 September 2011

Some calmness today ...

Yesterday was quite a mental day , today i think i will take you in a different direction and we'll take a look a look at 2yr old only races ( maidens and nurseries )  , you have to garner a different mindset when tackling maidens and 2 yr old races in general as most are big babies and most improve , you have to look at so many components , age ( old / young ) , breeding , ground type ( coupled with breeding ) , trainer form , jockey , track , distance and any current form.....so a lot to think about....so lets see whats on offer today...

SALISBURY

13:30
BACK - CIRCUS MONDAO - 3rd @ 9.62 ( hit 1.6 in running )
LAY - JOURNALISTIC - £250 @ 3.45 ( keep bet ) @ BFSP - 2nd @ 4.81( hit 1.05 in running ) = Won £250
BETA BACK - ROCK BAND - Unplaced
**Very tricky , with this being very open , i simply have to lay Journalistic as i have it against at least 5 viable alternatives and @ 4.2 i have it just about right ( although i would feel happier having 3.45 ) i have left my bet in as a keep bet and not a BTL as i am not convinced it will show enough to contribute to a price collapse in running , im not even sure the bet will get matched tbh and a big part of me is saying just lay at 4.2!!.
for the backers , rock band is selected on the basis that hannon has a lot of big priced second strings winning or getting placed and whilst this line proves profitable it will nearly always come out on top in the ratings registrar , circus mondao is an expensive relative of " one cool cat " ( champion 2 yr old ) as well as others and even with the rather dodgy ajtebi onboard should be good enough to figure here , that said it would not surprise me if burnham , fine resolve or estrela were involved in the finish.

1stOxford Charley (USA)12/1Full Result  
2ndJournalistic (USA)7/2
3rdCircus Mondao (USA)8/1



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14:00

BACK - DEDICATION - Unplaced
LAY - GOLDEN JUBILEE - £250 @ BFSP - Unplaced @ 5.92 = Won £250
BETA BACK - CUBANITA - 2nd @ 19.49
**A more straight forward maiden to grapple as it is considerably weaker in depth , the three hannon runners are all over looked as they appear to be very average , cubanita is worth a double check as beckett is not averse to coming up with the odd decent 2 yr old , dont like the breeding of the zarooni runner , bonfire is interesting and could run a decent race and the meehan runner , well his always come on for the 2nd run , i would only consider one of his first time out if it was heavily supported.

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14:30

BACK - FROG HOLLOW - £300 WIN ( NAP ) - 1st @ 2.18 = WON £354
LAY - WASEEM FARIS - £300 @ 7.4 ( LOTD )  - Unplaced = Won £300
BETA BACK - LORD OF THE SHADOWS - 2nd @ 2.88
**This is effectively a 2 horse race as none of the others have a hope in hell!! , lord of the shadows looks a bit exposed now and is probably ( for now ) as good as he will be , Frog Hollow however looks like a horse on the up and could prove to be very useful , nise run ( 3rd ) in a listed event first time out , then scooted up in a CD maiden after having to check , switch , swap run on and accelerate , all the attributes a decent sort needs , has a good attitude and im very sweet on this today.

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15:35

BACK - GUSTO - Unplaced
LAY - IHSAS - £250 @ 2.9 - Unplaced = Won £250
BETA BACK - ARTISTIC JEWEL - 1st @ 3.05
**Only the 4 runners left in this and all four have a squeak , however ihsas has only run on the poly , arnold lane is not gteed to like the ground.
So we are left With Gusto the obv form choice , dropping slightly in grade and improving artistic jewel , this should be a great race to trade.

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NEWCASTLE

14:10

BACK - GABRIAL THE GREAT - Unplaced
LAY - CHOISAN - £250 @ BFSP - 2nd @ 7/2 = Won £250
BETA BACK - DEIA SUNRISE - 1st @ 5.0
**I cannot see how the thoroughly exposed Choisan will ever be good enough against some decent sorts , it is was it is ...and thats not much , with a few arab entries and a couple of interesting newcomers this is going to won by a fairly forward decent sort , gabrial the great comes here full of hype and hope , an expensive " dr " purchase , when these are favoured they will go well....

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14:40 

BACK - TALK OF THE NORTH - 3rd @ 9/4
LAY - PETER ANDERS - £250 @ BFSP - unplaced = Won £250
BETA BACK - SHOLAAN - 2nd @ 11/4
**Straight forward maiden here , nothing really stand out so go with the form choices , strange race , if one of the favs doesnt win this then i think it will be a roughie...

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15:10

BACK - VAN DE ART - 1st @ 3.25
LAY - KHALEEJIYA - £250 @ BFSP - 2nd = Won £250
BETA BACK - PERSHIDA - Unplaced
**The quality is starting to slacken off now lol , obv only so many to go around!! , again Van de art is the obv form choice and really shouldn't be overlooked , Khaleejiya has a good 4 lengths to make up with the selection on their Yarmouth form and there is no reason for this to be turned around today.

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NOTTINGHAM

14:20

BACK - RHAGORI - 2nd @ 4/5
LAY - TAFFE - £250 @ BFSP - 1st @ 7.78 = Lost £1,700-00
BETA BACK - GLEN ELLYN - Unplaced ( but good trade matched )
**Rhagori has easily the best form on offer with its run behind firdaws , taffe looks only moderate and De Sousa is here to ride a couple on orders so Glen Ellyn could be interesting....

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15:55

BACK - BAILEYS OVER ICE - Unplaced
LAY - FARLEAZE - ( NBB ) - Unplaced
BETA BACK - KEY GOLD - Unplaced
**Not a lot to say regarding this other than ..move along...

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Right thats it , all done ( the 17:00 is a piece of shit ) , this is my take it events today , although i can see me doing some hard core trading s the 2yr old races are great for trading...what ever ya do today , stay lucky , be happy and healthy ;-))...
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Total P n L for the day = £454-00 Profit ( shame about Taffe , but shit happens!! ) , still a profit is a profit..

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