Friday, 29 August 2014

The Six Pack....

Morning Campers....
                              Its been another mundane run o the mill week with little or no action and just a few bets to mention ( to myself )  so far had just three serious bets this week , 1 x 1st , 1 x Max EW that was 2nd and an unplaced although i did get on a 50/1 Winner midweek but only for pennies as it was a " fun bet " so not a great deal to shout about as we enter the transitional period in both racing terms and weather wise as the evenings start to slowly draw in , the air gets a wee bit cooler the racing gets a bit trickier as the ground changes and flirts between firm and soft and those with the big Autumn races as their objectives come n flex their respective muscles.....very interesting few weeks coming up..

Today we have one small race to look at a Class 1 over at Salisbury this evening for the Juveniles and on Saturday we have a great 5 race line up with some very decent looking races us our 6 pack for the weekend...lets go have some fun.

The Friday Race >

18:40 SALISBURY > EBF Stallions Stonehenge Stakes (Listed).
This is a £20k race over 1m for the 2 yr olds and this is a tough test for most but it comes at the right time of the year for them although the Good/Soft ground will stretch them out.
Unsurprisingly we have no distance winners in the field although one has tried and been placed here over this trip and most have good winning form over 7f , the MJ trained Mister Universe comes here with the Highest given rating of 94 but in truth i have no fucking idea where they plucked that number from 2nd then 1st in a couple of 6f Maidens then a well beaten 5th in the Superlative Stakes and doesnt look currently anything like good enough..but it is a MJ horse and for obvious reasons cannot be fully discounted but i dont see it winning here.
Tupi is a similar horse with a similar profile and has been in fine fettle but seems to lack that extra gear and was ridden fully 1f out over 7f in its win but did stay on well enough to gain the victory but does look exposed to anything with a finishing kick and is another overlooked.
So we are left with the two market leaders and the rank outsider and at the current prices of 2.86 / 3.50 and 60.0 this is an obvious dutch with the front two a strong bet and a small % as cover on Groor.
WINTERS MOON showed up well fto and then ran respectably in the Sweet Solario and looks like the step up in trip is needed and looks a very promising sort however i was equally impressed with ELM PARK who ran a corker lto and looks a sure fire stayer with a touch of class admittedly it only won an egg n spoon maiden against patently lesser opposition however he looks a definite improver with tons of ability and the canny trainer will have a good idea of what he has and im pretty sure this son of Phoenix Reach could turn out quite smart.

BET SUMMARY : Dutch as illustrated.

RESULT = Elm Park - 1st @ 3.0
                    Groor      - 2nd @ 42.60
                  Winters Moon - 3rd @ 4.14  ( RFC = £41.13 )

Moving onto Saturday.....

The first of the days Five races is the European Wealth Solario Stakes (Group 3)..and this is another for 2 yr olds but this time over a slightly extended 7f  and for a £30k race its rather annoyingly under represented with just then 6 runners taking part although this could be down to 5 as ELM PARK is also listed as a possible runner here so it will be very interesting if he gets tugged and takes his chance here although imo he has a far lesser chance in this but not without.
Ive a feeling the ground will be on the soft side here so it may pay to take a look at those proven in the ground and looking through i can see that only Future Empire has yet to feel the mud squelch thru its hooves so on that basis i am leaving this out of my equation.
Last years Winner of this race was the imperious and quite brilliant Kingman and there doesn't look to be anything in quite that mould this year but there are some nice sorts on show with the re-opposing COCK O' THE NORTH & AKTABANTAY looking the most likely winners here as Pallister looks quite exposed and Lexington Times just not good enough.


1.AKTABANTAY 1st @ 3.34

BET SUMMARY > Dutch on the two mentioned although if Elm Park does take a place here then i would be involving that some how , a tricky race this one and Low Stakes only.

The 2nd race of the day is the Betfred Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes (Listed)..this time for 3+ yr olds and its a sprint over 5f and will be run at a furious pace as they all vie for a good racing position as Beverley can catch a few out.
Now old KINGSGATENATIVE still has plenty of juice left in the tank but is quite unpredictable and today for the first time i shall leave him alone ( watch him romp home ) because surely with all things being equal today HAS to be the day that PEARL SECRET finally shines , it has its ideal conditions in a race that will be run to suit against far lesser opposition than he has raced against lately , touted as Europes next great sprinting star and with an endless amount of hyperbole to follow this up this Pearl no longer has any secrets , first run this year saw it piss up in the soft in a conditions race at Nottingham which gave credence to the myth then it was put in as a 10/3 2nd fav for the Palace House but was soundly beaten back down in the field ( although only around 3L away ) by the brilliant Sole Power , then just failed to collar stable mate Hot Streak in the Temple Stakes but it was an improved run and then did not turn a stride in the King Stand after getting lit up and taking a fierce hold all the way through but it must be pointed out that the ground on its two poorest showings was on the firm side of good and that can be used as a valid excuse and now on his favoured softer surface this really ought to be winning today and i will be both disappointed and surprised if it cant...for me this horse is drinking in the last chance last Max bet and if it fails its on the life long lay list.


1. PEARL SECRET 1st @ 3.50

The Days 3rd race is a NH event and its the Lord Mildmay Memorial Handicap Chase (Listed).. a race over 2m 5f for 4+ yrs and is a decent event for the time of year over the sticks and is worth £30k so as expected its a competitive affair but we do have a large disparity in both class, ratings and allotted weight but at the same time very few in this can be ruled out with any real conviction .
The last 5 winners of this race have varied in weight between 10-9 and 11-12 giving no clues , the last 5 winners of this have been between 9/2 and 14/1 ( 3 tho in double figures ) which lends considerable weight to leaving out the fav and even the 2nd fav from your assumptions and David Pipe is he most prolific with 2 wins from 5 runs and in this he saddles two runners who are rather oddly both the top and bottom weights , both lto winners and confusingly Tom Scud' has opted to take the bottom weight and they are using O'Farrell on the top weight and not using a conditional....hmmm , elsewhere we have the mighty Welshman Williams who brings 3 to play and all arrive in decent enough form for any of them to have a shout , and the remainder are made up of decent sorts from top yards and the only horse i will discount is Dursey Sound , the mount of AP and the likely Fav and this looks ripe for a MAX LAY if the price is right at anything under 3.60 im going to lay it to bits but ive a feeling this may start off around 4.60 the field..we will see tmrw...

BET SUMMARY >  Im going in with a speculative Dutch on the two Pipe runners as so many come here with a chance its not worth taking any form of real punt in this in fact at small stakes i may look to do a dutch double with one of the other races..the Cock o The North race is a good un...dont really like either so may be worth it for shits n giggles...

1. Houston Dynamo was a Head 2nd @ 6.64.....

4th Race of the day is the Thoroughbred Breeders' Association Atalanta Stakes (Fillies' Group 3)..and this looks a decent field for this £50k race for 3 + yr olds over 1m and quite a few arrive in form and with victories over the distance.
Odeliz comes here 2nd top rated on 106 and although useful im not convinced good enough to be in this playground as she looks one paced and over rated , not far off this level but fully exposed and will be prone to anything with a solid finish and is easily dismissed.
ZIBELINA is a very interesting runner as she has more scope than most and was only just beaten by two rivals lto who are genuine rated 105/107 runners which gives her a solid look but she will have to run right upto that at the minimum and will have to show improvement to win but as the Betfair markets still look like shit i will hold fire on my fullest of views not knowing the correct price ( would expect at least 6/1 so will see if i can sneak some double figures in tmrw )..Zurigha's form is best on a different surface or even the AW and looks a horse punching above her weight is not one i like at all and is readily passed over , FLINTRY could be absolutely anything but is certainly a Filly with promise , 4 runs with a 2nd and 3 Wins indicates a Filly with ability and hails  from the powerful Fabre yard and is owned by the equally powerful Goldolphin team so everything points to a big run and much is expected but im not taking a skinny price about a horse whose form i cannot get a read on...this is where i need IDK to get on the blower and give me a low down on the French what i will approximate on will be at least 3 x the price i think WATER HOLE has an equal chance , again this has 4 runs with a 2nd and 3 Wins and is another with Distance form and more importantly will love the ground and this is another that could be anything but looks on an upward curve and is progressing , the negatives for this are that it needs to improve as it did beat in its last race the 2nd n 3rd by 2 & 10L they were only rated around 80 at best and that form is way below what will be required today and Water Hole will have to show at least 20lb of improvement to get involved...big ask..and a watch n see from me.
They are surely taking the Piss entering in Nur Jahan as i have more chance on foot than what do we do..a race full of more questions than answers well for me i think a good ol fashioned " Fun EW " is in order on AUDACIA from the Hugo Palmer yard and ridden by Ryan Moore this Sixties Icon filly does in no way represent the class that has previously won this race and looks a quirky type but this also won on soft ground over this 1m trip at the stamina sapping Ponty track lto in such a dominant and convincing style that there is a belief from me that this has a lot more to offer and if on a good day she can reproduce that form ( beating a 2nd/3rd/4th all rated between 90 - 102 ) then she has an outstanding EW chance and could easily run on past beaten horses and with some luck could come good at a nice price.

BET SUMMARY >  EW on AUDACIA at decent odds , may well regress and come stone last but i think it can out run its price here ( 35/65% )

1. FLINTRY Wins @ 2.60 ( Audacia back in 5th beaten 3L Neck n a Head

Finally we have the Win 10,000,000 On Betdaq Colossus Chester Stakes (Listed Handicap)..which just sees a few old hands battle each other again over an uninteresting 1m5f....and im simply going to suggest NOBLE SILK as it only really tired in the last furlong lto over 1m6f and in  a much better race than this and should give a very good account today..poor finale for the days efforts but hey with whats available....Should be a very interesting day..enjoy and Good Luck.

1. Unplaced as Big Orange loss here...

Friday, 22 August 2014

Time for Reflection...

Evening All ,
                   Well yesterday by n large went very well , as i told you the Lowther lay between 4 horses only and those 4 come home 1st/2nd/3rd and 5th so its fair to say i got that call right then i called Arabian Comet my EW Nap and that was just denied by a Nose by its stablemate but was a good 2nd and i also had my horse running which nearly held on but got tired in the dying strides but still managed a 3rd @ 28.90...all good between all this i had staked all this weeks winnings into Taghrooda for an easy payday and even tho it traded at 1.02 it got beat a neck by Tapestry...why i didnt lay cover in ??..why didnt it win ??...well i have my own thoughts on this but ultimately the good thing rolled me over and tucked me in...and we are back to cash loss but all this weeks good work undone in a moment...thats racing....just cant win em all....

Time to Get it on and get some full on PRO action im gonna get a massive card done for York for Friday and smash it to bits....


RACE 1 >
Traditional big field York Hcap to start the day off , 20 runners over 1m4f....where to start with this ? ...Well PEARL CASTLE has to come into the reckoning as a good looking CD winner that arrives in good form with 2 runs at YORK sandwiched by Group 1 hurdle events over 2m , the runs at York resulted in a 1st and a 4th both over this trip of 1m4f and both were good runs and racing off this mark should be no problem and this will be in the mix up gteed and the current 12/1 looks a fair price without being outstanding ( i wanted 16/1 and hoped for 20/1 ) ...maybe it will drift ??...i will keep my powder dry until nearer the time.

Dolphin Village has been in remarkable form of late rattling up some nice wins in some good races but is now racing off a career high mark after being raised over 20LB in the last 12 months or so and will have to find even more to get involved here.

Then we have SATELLITE a horse spoken of to me in the very highest order pre its first run and it duly bolted up , it ran green and was beaten into 4th in a good looking Hcap on its 2nd run but getting beat by Cannock Chase is no hardship and then it ran a short head 2nd when it should have won before doing nothing last time out ( lto ) , now i am prepared to give this another chance but only if its dutched with something else as my confidence is not high after the last run.

Finally we have CHANCERY , last years winner and although hes not been in that form this year he has been thereabouts with some decent enough placed form and the vibes from the yard are strong and this comes here with high hopes.

WIN - PEARL CASTLE - 4th @ 13.50


RACE 2 >>
Now we have a 2m Group 2 and this looks an absolute crackerjack of a race with some very tasty sorts indeed and nothing can be entirely ruled out.
CAVALRYMAN comes here in fine fettle having seen off Ahzeemah , Brown Panther , Hillstar and Pethers Moon in his last couple of races and although now 8 seems to be in as good form as hes ever been and  has to go on the shortlist.
ESTIMATE's run lto was simply too bad to be true and a much closer finish will be expected , i could find no reason for the poor and lackluster run lto and without the results from the scope i can offer no more but i will be mighty surprised if a much improved run is not forthcoming and with Ryan Moore doing the steering the 5.60 looks a very good EW bet.
Finally i think we should add in PALE MIMOSA from the all conquering Weld yard a horse not really tried at the trip ( has run before ) but has always shown a willing attitude in his runs and stays well and looks to be a major player against the tried n trusted.

EW - ESTIMATE - 2nd @ 6.66
LONGSHOT - PALE MIMOSA  - 1st @ 3.05

RACE 3 >>>
A listed 7f race now for the older brigade sees quite a few old rivals eyeball each other but its one of the seasonal debutantes that catches the eye and that is CABLE BAY from the Hills yard ( Charlie ) not seen out since last Oct when running 2nd to War Command ( 117 ) but was a fast improving sort and if he has trained on would be a near certainty for a place here and would have strong win claims however an awful lot must be taken on trust , that said i think the 14/1 is a fair price and is worth a few sheckles to find out,
The other concern is that in the last 10 years we have only seen one winner return in double digits....but then again this year its currently 8/1 the field so its a fair guess that a stat waiting to be broken...Top Notch Tonto is not a certain starter after that brilliant run yesterday but if he does and can sustain that form then he wins...

ABSOLUTELY SO is sure to be primed for a big run and has held its form very well  but in a race that could throw up any number of surprises i am going to row in with the two highest rated 3 yr olds ERTIJAAL and MUSHIR both of whom are distance winners , both arrive in peak form and both look to be improving and come on very reasonable marks and the 12/1 & 15/1 makes for a decent Dutch.

In a wide open contest its a tough call finding a direct line into anything as so many a case can be made...

WIN - ABSOLUTELY SO - 1st @ 7.40


RACE 4 >>>>

The NUNTHORPE and the days biggest race with 15 runners charging thru a mind boggling 5f and we simply have to start with SOLE POWER who was an unlucky 3rd last year and 7th the year before however he was against Ortensia that year and that was insanely quick.....he loves the ground , loves the track ( a CD winner )  and loves the trip  ( multiple distance winner ) he will get a good toe thru this race and his customary late charge will be seen once again and it will take a performance of incredible speed and endurance to beat him today, what can...
In truth i think there are only a couple that have the ability to hold on or outwit the old fox and one of those is last years place and race specialist and that is the speedball that is SHEA SHEA who was away slow lto and ran a bit rusty and although you could argue he comes here uncoiled there is also every reason to expect that MDK will have him 100% ready to rock n roll  and if anyone can beat the Power then this is it..

Elsewhere we have pretenders to the sprint crown in HOT STREAK a horse that looked a sure fire champion elect until running as flat as a wooden wheel lto and a watching brief must be respected now but this can win if in the right fram of mind...

Pearl Secret has been disappointing but has tons of ability , the old guard of Borderlescott will ensure a rocket powered pace and with a field packed full of erstwhile handicappers all gteeing a solid and reliable race there is little to  suggest anything can win.

WIN - SOLE POWER - ( NAP ) - 1st @ 4.11


RACE 5 >>>>>
The CONVIVIAL one of both Yorks and the UK's leading maiden races and one that has thrown up many a star turn , 9 of the 16 arrive with differing levels of form and it will take a dynamite performance from one of the newcomers to win against that.

One of the newcomers tho comes on the back of some very solid info and reports and that is the Haggas trained FOREIGN DIPLOMAT a horse ive been led to believe is right out of the top drawer and has had this as his main aim all season with a push for the back end races as he is currently in all the big sales race and the yearling sales events right upto and including the Dewhurst...and Haggas is not a man to waste ink...

Of those that have run i see ACASTER MALABIS and SWOT as the big two and if they push on they should have this race to themselves ..unless the Diplomat gets immunity...

EW - FOREIGN DIPLOMAT - 3rd @ 9.20 ( This pleases me greatly )


RACE 6 >>>>>>

And we round the day off with very tough looking 15 runner 1m Hcap which looks wide open , MAVERICK WAVE , EXTREMITY & HALATION look to be the class trio in a strong line up and with some very tasty prices knocking about a dutch is an easy decision after a long day.

1.MAVERICK WAVE - NON RUNNER ( place pot money carries to the Fav ) 
2.EXTREMITY - 2nd @ 5.06 ( Hit 1.20 )

**PLACE POT LANDED 2 x £1 LINES = £2 (200% or 2 x Payout )...lets hope its at least in three figures....( Need £56 to break even )..........Placepot £3,065.20 x 2 = BOOOOM !!!

SUMMARY : A lot of dutches looks the order for today with so many race being uber tight , SOLE POWER would be my NAP and ACASTER MALABIS my NB , but i would say today is probably the toughest day of the week for punting and my main advice would be , do the dutches , keep stakes sensible and have a great day.

Wednesday, 20 August 2014

Lowther , Galtres and the Oaks...

Evening All ,
                      Well yesterday was a good day overall and for many reasons i was a mighty happy chappy and Day 1 of the Ebor festival didnt disappoint as we had a good mix of class on show which was topped by the wonderful and power packed run of Australia a true champion and we now look upon Day 2 and we should witness the female equivalent of Australia in the shape of Tahgrooda a filly with limitless potential and another that rates a true superstar.

3 Races for me to look at today ,

Race 1 > The Lowther , A race for precocious 2 yr olds that rarely break sweat as a 3 yr old....Look for something good now, a horse at their peak because come Dec their racing career will be pretty much over....
This will turn into a 4 runner race which will lay between , ANTHEM ALEXANDER , Tiggy Wiggy , CURSORY GLANCE and Sulaalaat with not much splitting the quad and as i think both Cursory Glance and Tiggy Wiggy will make good 3 yr olds im gonna say the Dutch on the other two is the bet.

Race 2 > The Yorkshire OAKS and this race is all about TAGHROODA.( NAP ) ....the best filly probably since Pebbles and a mile ahead of these...this wins barring any accident..different Gravy..empty every bank account you have and pile it in...shitty odds but its free money so dont turn your nose up....

Race 3 > The Galtres Stakes...ARABIAN COMET ..EW...super horse , super bet...

And thats massive summary tonight as im tired and quite frankly i cant be bothered...

Tuesday, 19 August 2014

York > EBOR <

Afternoon All ,
                     Well its almost the start of my local tracks big week , its York and the Ebor festival and Day 1 sees us open up with 2 Big races which although not thorough Group 1's really ought to be imo and will be getting some cover from me and we have one of the seasons hottest 2 yr old races in the shape of the Acomb over 7 blisteringly fast furlongs...

As i have repeatedly stated there are not many courses where the phrase " Horses for courses " is more apt as this superb venue does often suit a particular running style and a good front runner as its quite hard to win from " off the pace " here coming down the long stretch off a bend and even more so if the ground comes up soft , this isnt completely correct as a lot win from off the pace but the point is if you have a good quality front runner then it has an above average chance of winning here as opposed to say Ripon , Newbury or Bath...and quite often CD winners that are out of form will rediscover their form for York...Ancient Cross is a typical York Horse , and look out for the Northern Trainers , Easterby , Fahey et al as they like to land a coup or two here.....

So lets take a look at todays three focus races ....

In the 13:55 i have been told to " Get On " KIMBERELLA as the team are awaiting compensation as they were expecting a bigger run lto although tbf it ran a really honest race in 7th beaten less than 2L in a huge bunched finish at Ripon and that was a pretty classy race for the track so at decent odds this i have been told is a cracking EW bet.....

Now onto the serious stuff...

RACE 1 > The ACOMB Stakes , a race that has been won in recent years by some very smart types like Kings Best , Hemingway , Fast Company and Dundonnell and we have a few likely types here today with all the big guns coming out to play and this looks a very tricky race at first glance.

Now i am only going to row in with previous distance winners as you have in a race like this a gtee of stamina which will be a big plus here and this brings the field down to a more manageable 7 runners.

1. BASATEEN > Won its maiden in good style and with considerable ease ( 1m22 ) and is highly thought of and is already entered into all the seasons leading back end 2 yr old races over 7f & 1m including the Racing Post and the Dewhurst so must be high up in the pecking order and this good looking son of Teofolio is sure to be a major player.

2. CHADIC > This already has a rating of 100 which imo is too high as this has done little to justify it , already looking exposed and with race times giving it around 5L to find just to get competitive i will happily write this off however...its an  " MJ " horse so could easily run an amazing race and win by 6L.....highly unlikely to a degree off 99% but not beyond the realms...but there isnt a realm known to me that would allow me to put any of my hard earned on this although Christian Emmanuel may well have a bash.....

3. DUTCH CONNECTION > This is another i really quite like , not hit the heights form wise of a few others and doesn't have the race times to back up any strong feelings however this has a ton of scope and improvement is guaranteed as lto he won pretty much as he liked and was not pushed at all so not a lot can be taken from that other than he will be a lot better now in a faster run race and is a major player in my book , my only provisio is that the Dutch Art progeny have been found wanting in group level overall and that statistic is tending to hold considerable water currently.

4. JAMAICA > Another with a similar profile to Dutch Connection and this comes from the all conquering and all powerful Aiden O'Brien yard over the Orish sea , in two runs it has so far failed to set the world alight but won as it liked last time and basically coasted home giving us little info to work on, its a traditional Magnier Galileo progeny and could be absolutely anything...

5. MEDRANO > This is an ok sort but has proven to be consistently slow even when winning which says more about the opposition than him has an awful lot to find to get involved and cant really be considered at all.

6. PRINCE GAGARIN > A lovely looking sort from the now in form Ed Dunlop yard and half or co owned by his father John and this son of Dubawi has done nothing wrong and has clocked some above average fractions but still has a few lb to find to really be involved but is another with a ton of scope and could easily improve enough to take a hand in the finish and the booking of Ryan Moore would suggest they mean business today and has to go on the short list.

7. SALATEEN > Finally we come to Nos 7 in the distance list but no hurrahs from here as this has to improve more than most just to reach the level already acquired by some here and this would be a shock should this win today.

SUMMARY : A tough looking affair that looks weaker at 2nd and 3rd glance with most of the proven winners running slow or average times , all have improvement to come but there is a big gap between top n bottom on my figures and i think both Misleading and Growl can get involved against their peers but for me the winner is BASATEEN , quickest by far and with good solid fractions this will imo take all the beating and the current 3.20 looks very fair , Jamaica will be interesting but ultimately i feel this is going to be set up nicely for Basateen to race up with the pace before pushing on although Growl will get every effort from Hughes to beat Hanaghan who is riding for his retainer and not his boss....WIN bet on Basateen for me.



Great Voltigeur Stakes 

...An excellent race with an excellent pedigree but a shit pot for Favourites with the winners price range varying between 5/4 and 28/1 with an awful lot of double figure winners come through.
And this year we will all be looking at KINGSTON HILL....has it still got its thirst for racing ? , is it better now than at 2 ? , how good can he be or has he peaked and become tripless ?....lots of questions to answer and as much as i love the beast i cant get over enthusiastic about a horse i have no confidence in....Can it win ?..Yes...Will it Win ?...probably...but @ around 6/4 im going to look elsewhere.

SNOW SKY has to go on the short list after a great win in the Gordon Stakes beating Windshear and will be well primed for the biggest of runs , likes the ground, loves the trip , stays at pace and can quicken and battle...this has all the right ingredients to be a winner and this son of Nayef is only just starting to come to himself and is still improving , i like this and i think it will run a big race and at 8/1 looks to be a cracking EW bet...not far off a bet to nothing...

POSTPONED won well last time out but that run was not as good as its previous effort when beaten into third in the Hampton in what looks a very tough race with a good portion of class and is another just starting the upwards curve of improvement and is another to be feared and respected...def has a winning chance.

Finally we have GRANDDUKEOFTUSCANY and i say finally as its my belief that the remainder are all held on form either literal or lateral and will do well to get competitive at any stage and this raider from the O'Brien yard is yet another one of his " off the production " Galileo colts that has won a egg n spoon maiden and now goes straight for the jugular and tbh the manner in which it had won its maiden made many sit up and take notice and i for one wouldnt be surprised to see this turn into something a wee bit special , but on the premise of proven ability it has an awful lot of improving to do and the 6/1 just isnt enough to get me salivating.

SUMMARY : We have the shown , proven and tested class of Kingston Hill against the possibility of Granddukeoftuscany  , the curiosity of Postponed and the expected improvement of Snow Sky in what will make a fascinating renewal but the 6/4 on Kingston Hill is too low as in all honesty i made this 7/2 the field so that price looks insane to it worth a Max Lay ?...well in this instance i dont think so as i think there are greater rewards to be had elsewhere , thats not to say its a bad bet because it isnt i just think the risk reward ratio is in our favour here and a solid dutch against the fav pays a far higher dividend , in fact the 3 way dutch on those i have highlighted pays just over 4/1 at current odds ( expect movement ) and looks a much better bet than getting 4/6 laying the Jolly...For me the bet is the Dutch.


Juddmonte International Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1)

...........Yes its the days BIG ONE and it looks another cracking renewal that has seen past Victors include the magnificent Frankel , Sea The Stars and Authorized and this years renewal has a runner with imo the same pedigree and class as those luminaries listed and that horse is AUSTRALIA the 2nd best horse in Europe right now and the best over 1m4f , i wont say " the best over 1m2f " as we wont know that until Kingman has tried but is certainly the best by a country mile that has made an attempt at the trip , this animal just ooozes class and looks the real deal and although both he and Kingman were surprisingly turned over in an oddly run Guineas its class has shone through since that day and i will be shocked beyond shocked if this doesnt win as it likes and i think the 1.64 is an absolute steal as i make it 1.25 as its that far ahead....i just think defeat is unimaginable....and its a wallet emptying , beg , borrow and Steal MAX WIN bet for me.

Results to follow after each race with review and excuse laden summaries....;-/


RACE 1 : BLAINE scores for York specialist handler Kevin Ryan....1-0 to the shrewdies ( former Course winner when winning the Gimcrack ) ...Kimberella just not good enough although ran well enough but not a place.

RACE 2 : DUTCH CONNECTION belies the " Dutch Art Stats " and Wins really well @ 27.50 , i did have a little saver on it but unfortunately i only put enough on to break even as Basateen could only manage third after travelling well in the van for most as expected but just couldnt quicken on in the final 1f...not a bad result for me but neither was it what i really expected or wanted.....but i was really keen on this last n0ight and kinda talked myself out of it..;-(...shame on me...

RACE 3 :  POSTPONED WINS ;-)....@ 3.51  with Snow Sky 2nd and well clear of the field and even Kingston Hill who was a non runner would have struggled to get to grips with these in this form imo as this Winner won well and looks very good indeed and the 2nd running on ground not really liked did very well and will be a major player in the St Leger....But ultimately all that counts is the fact i now have a nice jingle jangle of change in my pocket ;-)...

RACE 4 : AUSTRALIA easily WINS @ 1.65 beating two horses rated 128 and now must surely be given a rating in the 130's maybe even as high as 134 imo....always coasting , quickened and stayed on very strong to see off the very good run by The Great Gatsby who was around a lengthening 2-3L away in 2nd...Fantastic run and that rounds off a cracking day for me.

Saturday, 16 August 2014

Saturday Treble...

Morning All ,
                   Well yesterday was a very poor day with the race at Deauville turning into a farce and Dangerous Moonlite running an odd race , odd in the sense it didnt try to make all in a sustainable fashion as it tore off in front at what looked like a mad early pace only to completely empty at the 2f pole and coming last...disappointed..very....confused as to the run...very....i cant blame the ground , would like to blame the ride but you know..thats horse can do all the studying you want but you still need things to go your way on the track...its like playing poker in some respects....your in a tourney , your card dead and you bide your time..then BooM you get dealt A/ play it right the flop is a good looking 2/3/4 so now you have more in your favour , you bet , you get raised , you go ALL IN you get called...your opponent flips K/ smile as you know this is yours......turn card is a J and helps no one  and your way in front....the river comes and its a .............King....and you lose....the miracle river card turns up...thats life folks....Horse racing is not an exact science and suffers from so many variables that at times you may well think its almost an impossible task but long term if you stick to what you do best , stay on track then much like the A/A you will be a long term winner.

So what do we have for today  ? , Well have a fun card at Perth , a Nice Looking Card at Donny , an Interesting day at Chester , a traditional HQ card and a very nice looking card for Ripon however todays focus will be on three ..yes THREE races at NEWBURY......

Todays first race in focus is the 4 runner Washington Singer Stakes over 7f for 2 yr olds which has been previously won by a couple of smart sorts in Somewhat and Just the Judge so the race resonates with the trainers , a brief glance and you would think this is a tight affair with all looking to have some ok form but look deeper and you can see that the market is indeed correct and this is probably a two horse race which will need a run of around 102-105 to win and although Diaz is currently rated 96 i firstly dont think he has much more to offer and secondly i feel that rating is wrong by around 9lbs so is quickly dismissed , Carry on Deryck however is a very hard horse to assess as this son of Halling Won its maiden in fine style ( first time out ) but was unfancied at 25/1 to do so but bellied those odds and any thoughts of greenness as it got chopped for room at several points and at just 1f out had to drop out to last of 9 as it got cramped and checked but then just 150 yards out switched right and made a last gasp run up the outer to win by a going away 3/4L....signs of a very smart horse indeed and stamina wont be an issue as its a Halling and they can stay even at 2 and i think making it 11/1 in a 3 runner field is a piss take...why ? because its trained by the unfashionable S Kirk..well thats just bollocks imo if this was trained by Hannon it would be Evens Favourite!!...and the current 4.0+ for a place 1-2 in a 4 runner race is imo just not that bothered about the winner when i simply cant resist having a go at this Win and Place 35/65....
For those of you looking for the winner in this...i would have to say realistically its HAWKESBURY a proven trip winner that wont mind the ground and looks quite classy...but at just over Even Money its a no brainer imo....and when you look at the fap odds on the jollies it Screams PPL !!!!!!!.......this is crying out to be had....two cracking options....WIN OR LOSE THE PPL LOOKS JUST A GREAT BET.

Next on the agenda is the 1m5f GEOFFREY FREER Stakes a Class 1 for 3+ yr olds and this looks a good renewal , Pethers Moon is a strange beast but not without ability who runs quite often i snatches which was shown to effect lto when looking a beaten horse 3f out but then found some gusto to challenge the leaders 2f out and take the lead at the 1f pole and win beating the returning Enke who had himself looked rusty a good run but not form that takes your breath away but he did show in the Mallard ( 1m6f ) that he stays albeit at one pace but the run before when 3rd in the Prince of Wales ( 1m4f ) behind the Gallant oldboy Cavalryman and Hillstar was a good effort and must come into the reckoning but i feel it will find one or two just too good today and i also think CAFE SOCIETY can reverse latest running and overhaul Pethers Moon over this longer trip as it was gaining ground all the time lto when just 3rd but only beaten a diminishing 2L and this son of stayer Motivator has been running on at the end of all his recent outings suggesting this step up in trip is just what he needs and i think the current 16/1 is a very fair price and looks to me to be an above average EW bet.
Of the others we have the improving Somewhat , the returning Willing Foe , Red Cadeaux now Ed Dunlop has started firing in the winners to make this a good race and reasonably open , sit back , enjoy and get on something in double figures.

Finally we have the HUNGERFORD Stakes over 7f and again for 3 yrs and older and this is a small field event with just the 6 runners now that disappointingly Es Que Love has been ruled out and this looks a very tight race indeed with nothing more than a couple of pound separating the main runners and the warm Fav Gregorian has it all to prove after flopping miserably across the channel last week and at around 2/1 i will make this my LOTD . Yes it won this race last year , Yes it has form this season that entitles it to win but its such an in/out performer that i feel its worth taking on with some very solid opposition in the shape of the Hannon pair Producer and Professor plus we have the solid Chill the Kite and the Exciting Breton Rock and this means you have an awful lot in your favour so for me its a no brainer...LAY THAT FAV.

Bet Summary : 1 x PPL , 1 x EW and 1 x Max Lay and a EW Double at good odds on Deryck / Cafe Society....should be a fun day and plenty of other action to keep ya ticking over.


RACE 1 : Diaz set the pace and got burned up , Deryck is a nice sort but not at this level and Hawkesbury ran no sort of race whatsoever and even tho beaten still looks the best horse in the race..but will have to learn to settle ...PPL LOST as mine were 3rd/4th and the win LOST as Hawkesbury was 2nd....Not a great start...

Full Result

1st (4)Belardo (IRE)R Varian29-1Andrea Atzeni5/4f
Tracked leading pair, went 2nd over 2f out, led over 1f out, pushed out and stayed on strongly final furlong, easily opened 6/4 £1200-£800 £600-£400 £413-£300 £375-£300
2nd (3)HawkesburyC Appleby29-1William Buick13/8
Steadied start, took keen hold and held up 4th, switched right to near side over 2f out, headway when hung badly right and raced awkwardly from over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, no impression and eased final 100 yards opened 5/4 £600-£400 £1100-£800
3rd (2)2Diaz (IRE)M Johnston29-1 hJ Fanning6/1
Led and set even pace, ridden and headed over 1f out, no impression when weakened into 3rd inside final furlong opened 8/1
4th (1)½Carry On DeryckS Kirk29-1L P Keniry8/1
Tracked leader until pushed along over 2f out, soon outpaced, plugged on pressing for well held 3rd

RACE 2 : Cafe Society was unplaced...however @ 15.20 it traded as low as 4.0 for a decent profit and looked right up until the last 50 or so yards it was def gonna place and at one stage a win looked on the cards...but ultimately it just didnt have enough in the tank to fend off the late charges coming home 4th or 5th...or 7th even...

Full Result

1st (7)Seismos (IRE)M Botti69-4Martin Harley11/1
Tracked leaders, went 2nd 9f out until pushed along over 3f out, chased leaders but outpaced well over 1f out, rallied inside final furlong, led close home
2nd (3)nkWilling Foe (USA)Saeed bin Suroor79-4James Doyle7/1
Tracked leading pair, went 2nd over 3f out, led 2f out, ridden over 1f out, strongly pressed and stayed on inside final furlong, headed and not pace of winner close home
3rd (9)110 Seal Of ApprovalJ R Fanshawe59-1 hG Baker6/1
Slowly into stride, last pair dropped to rear 10f out, headway on wide outside over 1f out, ridden and stayed on strongly inside final furlong, snatched 3rd post, not reach leading pair opened 11/2 £3000-£500(x3)
4th (2)nseRed CadeauxE A L Dunlop89-4G Mosse7/1
Mid-division, headway on inside tracking leaders over 3f out, squeezed through into 2nd over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, outpaced into 3rd close home, lost 3rd post opened 6/1 £1800-£300
5th (8)111 Somewhat (USA)M Johnston38-7J Fanning5/1
Led, ridden and headed 2f out, chased leader until over 1f out, no extra and dropped to 4th inside final furlong, weakened into 5th final 75 yards opened 6/1
6th (10)nseRawaki (IRE)A M Balding69-4L P Keniry16/1
Held up towards rear, not clear run and switched left over 2f out, switched right inside final 2f, stayed on well in closing stages, never going pace to challenge opened 20/1
7th (11)Cafe SocietyD M Simcock49-4Jim Crowley12/1
Tracked leader until 9f out, tracked leaders, ridden and not quicken when hung left over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong opened 14/1

RACE 3 : Finally ..something to cheer about in good style as my MAX LAY on Gregorian paid off ...but only just as Breton Rock WON in virtually its last stride....PHEW!!....but thankfully an inch is all you need....;-))...

Full Result

1st (6)Breton Rock (IRE)D M Simcock49-5Martin Lane3/1
Held up tracking leaders, 3rd travelling well over 2f out, chased leader approaching final furlong, upsides and strong challenge inside final furlong, ran on gamely to lead last stride opened 7/2
2nd (2)s.hGregorian (IRE)J H M Gosden59-5William Buick13/8f
Tracked leaders, went 2nd over 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden and strongly pressed inside final furlong, ran on gamely, headed last stride opened 2/1 £900-£400 £1000-£500(x2) £800-£400 £650-£400 £488-£300


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