Friday, 22 August 2014

Time for Reflection...

Evening All ,
                   Well yesterday by n large went very well , as i told you the Lowther lay between 4 horses only and those 4 come home 1st/2nd/3rd and 5th so its fair to say i got that call right then i called Arabian Comet my EW Nap and that was just denied by a Nose by its stablemate but was a good 2nd and i also had my horse running which nearly held on but got tired in the dying strides but still managed a 3rd @ 28.90...all good stuff...in between all this i had staked all this weeks winnings into Taghrooda for an easy payday and even tho it traded at 1.02 it got beat a neck by Tapestry...why i didnt lay cover in ??..why didnt it win ??...well i have my own thoughts on this but ultimately the good thing rolled me over and tucked me in...and we are back to scratch..no cash loss but all this weeks good work undone in a moment...thats racing....just cant win em all....

Time to Get it on and get some full on PRO action going...so im gonna get a massive card done for York for Friday and smash it to bits....

YORK PRO CARD >>>>

RACE 1 >
Traditional big field York Hcap to start the day off , 20 runners over 1m4f....where to start with this ? ...Well PEARL CASTLE has to come into the reckoning as a good looking CD winner that arrives in good form with 2 runs at YORK sandwiched by Group 1 hurdle events over 2m , the runs at York resulted in a 1st and a 4th both over this trip of 1m4f and both were good runs and racing off this mark should be no problem and this will be in the mix up gteed and the current 12/1 looks a fair price without being outstanding ( i wanted 16/1 and hoped for 20/1 ) ...maybe it will drift ??...i will keep my powder dry until nearer the time.

Dolphin Village has been in remarkable form of late rattling up some nice wins in some good races but is now racing off a career high mark after being raised over 20LB in the last 12 months or so and will have to find even more to get involved here.

Then we have SATELLITE a horse spoken of to me in the very highest order pre its first run and it duly bolted up , it ran green and was beaten into 4th in a good looking Hcap on its 2nd run but getting beat by Cannock Chase is no hardship and then it ran a short head 2nd when it should have won before doing nothing last time out ( lto ) , now i am prepared to give this another chance but only if its dutched with something else as my confidence is not high after the last run.

Finally we have CHANCERY , last years winner and although hes not been in that form this year he has been thereabouts with some decent enough placed form and the vibes from the yard are strong and this comes here with high hopes.

WIN - PEARL CASTLE - 4th @ 13.50
EW - SATELLITE -
LONGSHOT - CHANCERY -

                                          ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 2 >>
Now we have a 2m Group 2 and this looks an absolute crackerjack of a race with some very tasty sorts indeed and nothing can be entirely ruled out.
CAVALRYMAN comes here in fine fettle having seen off Ahzeemah , Brown Panther , Hillstar and Pethers Moon in his last couple of races and although now 8 seems to be in as good form as hes ever been and  has to go on the shortlist.
ESTIMATE's run lto was simply too bad to be true and a much closer finish will be expected , i could find no reason for the poor and lackluster run lto and without the results from the scope i can offer no more but i will be mighty surprised if a much improved run is not forthcoming and with Ryan Moore doing the steering the 5.60 looks a very good EW bet.
Finally i think we should add in PALE MIMOSA from the all conquering Weld yard a horse not really tried at the trip ( has run before ) but has always shown a willing attitude in his runs and stays well and looks to be a major player against the tried n trusted.

WIN - CAVALRYMAN - 4th
EW - ESTIMATE - 2nd @ 6.66
LONGSHOT - PALE MIMOSA  - 1st @ 3.05

                                          ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 3 >>>
A listed 7f race now for the older brigade sees quite a few old rivals eyeball each other but its one of the seasonal debutantes that catches the eye and that is CABLE BAY from the Hills yard ( Charlie ) not seen out since last Oct when running 2nd to War Command ( 117 ) but was a fast improving sort and if he has trained on would be a near certainty for a place here and would have strong win claims however an awful lot must be taken on trust , that said i think the 14/1 is a fair price and is worth a few sheckles to find out,
The other concern is that in the last 10 years we have only seen one winner return in double digits....but then again this year its currently 8/1 the field so its a fair guess that a stat waiting to be broken...Top Notch Tonto is not a certain starter after that brilliant run yesterday but if he does and can sustain that form then he wins...

ABSOLUTELY SO is sure to be primed for a big run and has held its form very well  but in a race that could throw up any number of surprises i am going to row in with the two highest rated 3 yr olds ERTIJAAL and MUSHIR both of whom are distance winners , both arrive in peak form and both look to be improving and come on very reasonable marks and the 12/1 & 15/1 makes for a decent Dutch.

In a wide open contest its a tough call finding a direct line into anything as so many a case can be made...

WIN - ABSOLUTELY SO - 1st @ 7.40
EW -  MUSHIR -
LONGSHOT - ERTIJAAL -

                                          ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 4 >>>>

The NUNTHORPE and the days biggest race with 15 runners charging thru a mind boggling 5f and we simply have to start with SOLE POWER who was an unlucky 3rd last year and 7th the year before however he was against Ortensia that year and that was insanely quick.....he loves the ground , loves the track ( a CD winner )  and loves the trip  ( multiple distance winner ) he will get a good toe thru this race and his customary late charge will be seen once again and it will take a performance of incredible speed and endurance to beat him today,....so what can...
In truth i think there are only a couple that have the ability to hold on or outwit the old fox and one of those is last years place and race specialist and that is the speedball that is SHEA SHEA who was away slow lto and ran a bit rusty and although you could argue he comes here uncoiled there is also every reason to expect that MDK will have him 100% ready to rock n roll  and if anyone can beat the Power then this is it..

Elsewhere we have pretenders to the sprint crown in HOT STREAK a horse that looked a sure fire champion elect until running as flat as a wooden wheel lto and a watching brief must be respected now but this can win if in the right fram of mind...

Pearl Secret has been disappointing but has tons of ability , the old guard of Borderlescott will ensure a rocket powered pace and with a field packed full of erstwhile handicappers all gteeing a solid and reliable race there is little to  suggest anything can win.

WIN - SOLE POWER - ( NAP ) - 1st @ 4.11
EW - SHEA SHEA -
LONGSHOT - HOT STREAK -

                                          ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 5 >>>>>
The CONVIVIAL one of both Yorks and the UK's leading maiden races and one that has thrown up many a star turn , 9 of the 16 arrive with differing levels of form and it will take a dynamite performance from one of the newcomers to win against that.

One of the newcomers tho comes on the back of some very solid info and reports and that is the Haggas trained FOREIGN DIPLOMAT a horse ive been led to believe is right out of the top drawer and has had this as his main aim all season with a push for the back end races as he is currently in all the big sales race and the yearling sales events right upto and including the Dewhurst...and Haggas is not a man to waste ink...

Of those that have run i see ACASTER MALABIS and SWOT as the big two and if they push on they should have this race to themselves ..unless the Diplomat gets immunity...

WIN -  ACASTER MALABIS -
EW - FOREIGN DIPLOMAT - 3rd @ 9.20 ( This pleases me greatly )
LONGSHOT - SWOT -

                                          ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 6 >>>>>>

And we round the day off with very tough looking 15 runner 1m Hcap which looks wide open , MAVERICK WAVE , EXTREMITY & HALATION look to be the class trio in a strong line up and with some very tasty prices knocking about a dutch is an easy decision after a long day.

1.MAVERICK WAVE - NON RUNNER ( place pot money carries to the Fav ) 
2.EXTREMITY - 2nd @ 5.06 ( Hit 1.20 )
3.HALATION -

**PLACE POT LANDED 2 x £1 LINES = £2 (200% or 2 x Payout )...lets hope its at least in three figures....( Need £56 to break even )..........Placepot £3,065.20 x 2 = BOOOOM !!!

SUMMARY : A lot of dutches looks the order for today with so many race being uber tight , SOLE POWER would be my NAP and ACASTER MALABIS my NB , but i would say today is probably the toughest day of the week for punting and my main advice would be , do the dutches , keep stakes sensible and have a great day.

Translate

Copy Halt