Saturday, 16 August 2014

Saturday Treble...

Morning All ,
                   Well yesterday was a very poor day with the race at Deauville turning into a farce and Dangerous Moonlite running an odd race , odd in the sense it didnt try to make all in a sustainable fashion as it tore off in front at what looked like a mad early pace only to completely empty at the 2f pole and coming last...disappointed..very....confused as to the run...very....i cant blame the ground , would like to blame the ride but you know..thats horse racing..you can do all the studying you want but you still need things to go your way on the track...its like playing poker in some respects....your in a tourney , your card dead and you bide your time..then BooM you get dealt A/A....you play it right the flop is a good looking 2/3/4 so now you have more in your favour , you bet , you get raised , you go ALL IN you get called...your opponent flips K/K...you smile as you know this is yours......turn card is a J and helps no one  and your way in front....the river comes and its a .............King....and you lose....the miracle river card turns up...thats life folks....Horse racing is not an exact science and suffers from so many variables that at times you may well think its almost an impossible task but long term if you stick to what you do best , stay on track then much like the A/A you will be a long term winner.

So what do we have for today  ? , Well have a fun card at Perth , a Nice Looking Card at Donny , an Interesting day at Chester , a traditional HQ card and a very nice looking card for Ripon however todays focus will be on three ..yes THREE races at NEWBURY......

Todays first race in focus is the 4 runner Washington Singer Stakes over 7f for 2 yr olds which has been previously won by a couple of smart sorts in Somewhat and Just the Judge so the race resonates with the trainers , a brief glance and you would think this is a tight affair with all looking to have some ok form but look deeper and you can see that the market is indeed correct and this is probably a two horse race which will need a run of around 102-105 to win and although Diaz is currently rated 96 i firstly dont think he has much more to offer and secondly i feel that rating is wrong by around 9lbs so is quickly dismissed , Carry on Deryck however is a very hard horse to assess as this son of Halling Won its maiden in fine style ( first time out ) but was unfancied at 25/1 to do so but bellied those odds and any thoughts of greenness as it got chopped for room at several points and at just 1f out had to drop out to last of 9 as it got cramped and checked but then just 150 yards out switched right and made a last gasp run up the outer to win by a going away 3/4L....signs of a very smart horse indeed and stamina wont be an issue as its a Halling and they can stay even at 2 and i think making it 11/1 in a 3 runner field is a piss take...why ? because its trained by the unfashionable S Kirk..well thats just bollocks imo if this was trained by Hannon it would be Evens Favourite!!...and the current 4.0+ for a place 1-2 in a 4 runner race is imo HUGE.....im just not that bothered about the winner when i simply cant resist having a go at this Win and Place 35/65....
For those of you looking for the winner in this...i would have to say realistically its HAWKESBURY a proven trip winner that wont mind the ground and looks quite classy...but at just over Even Money its a no brainer imo....and when you look at the fap odds on the jollies it Screams PPL !!!!!!!.......this is crying out to be had....two cracking options....WIN OR LOSE THE PPL LOOKS JUST A GREAT BET.

Next on the agenda is the 1m5f GEOFFREY FREER Stakes a Class 1 for 3+ yr olds and this looks a good renewal , Pethers Moon is a strange beast but not without ability who runs quite often i snatches which was shown to effect lto when looking a beaten horse 3f out but then found some gusto to challenge the leaders 2f out and take the lead at the 1f pole and win beating the returning Enke who had himself looked rusty a good run but not form that takes your breath away but he did show in the Mallard ( 1m6f ) that he stays albeit at one pace but the run before when 3rd in the Prince of Wales ( 1m4f ) behind the Gallant oldboy Cavalryman and Hillstar was a good effort and must come into the reckoning but i feel it will find one or two just too good today and i also think CAFE SOCIETY can reverse latest running and overhaul Pethers Moon over this longer trip as it was gaining ground all the time lto when just 3rd but only beaten a diminishing 2L and this son of stayer Motivator has been running on at the end of all his recent outings suggesting this step up in trip is just what he needs and i think the current 16/1 is a very fair price and looks to me to be an above average EW bet.
Of the others we have the improving Somewhat , the returning Willing Foe , Red Cadeaux now Ed Dunlop has started firing in the winners to make this a good race and reasonably open , sit back , enjoy and get on something in double figures.

Finally we have the HUNGERFORD Stakes over 7f and again for 3 yrs and older and this is a small field event with just the 6 runners now that disappointingly Es Que Love has been ruled out and this looks a very tight race indeed with nothing more than a couple of pound separating the main runners and the warm Fav Gregorian has it all to prove after flopping miserably across the channel last week and at around 2/1 i will make this my LOTD . Yes it won this race last year , Yes it has form this season that entitles it to win but its such an in/out performer that i feel its worth taking on with some very solid opposition in the shape of the Hannon pair Producer and Professor plus we have the solid Chill the Kite and the Exciting Breton Rock and this means you have an awful lot in your favour so for me its a no brainer...LAY THAT FAV.

Bet Summary : 1 x PPL , 1 x EW and 1 x Max Lay and a EW Double at good odds on Deryck / Cafe Society....should be a fun day and plenty of other action to keep ya ticking over.

RESULTS & EXCUSES : 

RACE 1 : Diaz set the pace and got burned up , Deryck is a nice sort but not at this level and Hawkesbury ran no sort of race whatsoever and even tho beaten still looks the best horse in the race..but will have to learn to settle ...PPL LOST as mine were 3rd/4th and the win LOST as Hawkesbury was 2nd....Not a great start...

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (4)Belardo (IRE)R Varian29-1Andrea Atzeni5/4f
Tracked leading pair, went 2nd over 2f out, led over 1f out, pushed out and stayed on strongly final furlong, easily opened 6/4 £1200-£800 £600-£400 £413-£300 £375-£300
2nd (3)HawkesburyC Appleby29-1William Buick13/8
Steadied start, took keen hold and held up 4th, switched right to near side over 2f out, headway when hung badly right and raced awkwardly from over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, no impression and eased final 100 yards opened 5/4 £600-£400 £1100-£800
3rd (2)2Diaz (IRE)M Johnston29-1 hJ Fanning6/1
Led and set even pace, ridden and headed over 1f out, no impression when weakened into 3rd inside final furlong opened 8/1
4th (1)½Carry On DeryckS Kirk29-1L P Keniry8/1
Tracked leader until pushed along over 2f out, soon outpaced, plugged on pressing for well held 3rd

RACE 2 : Cafe Society was unplaced...however @ 15.20 it traded as low as 4.0 for a decent profit and looked right up until the last 50 or so yards it was def gonna place and at one stage a win looked on the cards...but ultimately it just didnt have enough in the tank to fend off the late charges coming home 4th or 5th...or 7th even...

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (7)Seismos (IRE)M Botti69-4Martin Harley11/1
Tracked leaders, went 2nd 9f out until pushed along over 3f out, chased leaders but outpaced well over 1f out, rallied inside final furlong, led close home
2nd (3)nkWilling Foe (USA)Saeed bin Suroor79-4James Doyle7/1
Tracked leading pair, went 2nd over 3f out, led 2f out, ridden over 1f out, strongly pressed and stayed on inside final furlong, headed and not pace of winner close home
3rd (9)110 Seal Of ApprovalJ R Fanshawe59-1 hG Baker6/1
Slowly into stride, last pair dropped to rear 10f out, headway on wide outside over 1f out, ridden and stayed on strongly inside final furlong, snatched 3rd post, not reach leading pair opened 11/2 £3000-£500(x3)
4th (2)nseRed CadeauxE A L Dunlop89-4G Mosse7/1
Mid-division, headway on inside tracking leaders over 3f out, squeezed through into 2nd over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, outpaced into 3rd close home, lost 3rd post opened 6/1 £1800-£300
5th (8)111 Somewhat (USA)M Johnston38-7J Fanning5/1
Led, ridden and headed 2f out, chased leader until over 1f out, no extra and dropped to 4th inside final furlong, weakened into 5th final 75 yards opened 6/1
6th (10)nseRawaki (IRE)A M Balding69-4L P Keniry16/1
Held up towards rear, not clear run and switched left over 2f out, switched right inside final 2f, stayed on well in closing stages, never going pace to challenge opened 20/1
7th (11)Cafe SocietyD M Simcock49-4Jim Crowley12/1
Tracked leader until 9f out, tracked leaders, ridden and not quicken when hung left over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong opened 14/1

RACE 3 : Finally ..something to cheer about in good style as my MAX LAY on Gregorian paid off ...but only just as Breton Rock WON in virtually its last stride....PHEW!!....but thankfully an inch is all you need....;-))...

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (6)Breton Rock (IRE)D M Simcock49-5Martin Lane3/1
Held up tracking leaders, 3rd travelling well over 2f out, chased leader approaching final furlong, upsides and strong challenge inside final furlong, ran on gamely to lead last stride opened 7/2
2nd (2)s.hGregorian (IRE)J H M Gosden59-5William Buick13/8f
Tracked leaders, went 2nd over 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden and strongly pressed inside final furlong, ran on gamely, headed last stride opened 2/1 £900-£400 £1000-£500(x2) £800-£400 £650-£400 £488-£300

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