Thursday, 14 August 2014

St Hugh's Stakes (Fillies' Listed)

Well Good Afternoon ,
                                     Yesterday's post didnt happen unfortunately and i say unfortunately as i had done a nice long summary on why Yuften ( Evens Fav ) should be taken on and why i fancied Captain Cat ( 1st @ 7.80 ) to Win but i got rather delayed and ended up binning the unfinished post and to rub salt in i also forgot to both do the Lay or Back the Winner....sigh...one of those days.....so what do we have on Friday ?  , well we have this rather interesting Listed event for 2 yr olds which contains some rather speedy and precocious types , i do normally leave these events for my compadre Senor Coote ( HCE ) however i feel like having a stab with this as its the first decent race this week and i need a warmer for the weekend...

The most recent winners of this event have mostly been out n out speed balls and surprisingly this has been a rough race for favourites so we have a stat clash which is never a good thing.

Juvenile maestro Richard Hannon  ( now Jnr ) has only won this event once in the last 15 years or so and that was with a second string ridden by dobbs ( thats not that unusual tbh )  and i dont think he is that bothered per se about this race however he does seem to have a very strong hand this year so maybe Hannon Jnr is wanting to re-write the history books and turn this into one of his own and move away from his famous fathers pedigree ( hes doing great on his own in truth ) , he has 3 runners in this with the weakest probably Spirit of Xian whose form figures leave a bit to be desired although highly tried has generally been found wanting and im a little surprised its in this..must be showing a hell of a lot at home...then we have PARSLEY now this def has both pace and ability and cannot be totally ruled out although i would be a little surprised if this won today but has clocked good enough speed figures to certainly get involved , the third runner from the yard is one i like very much and that is DANGEROUS MOONLITE , a very fast daughter of Acclamation and one that is closely related to speed merchant Kingsgate Native and can count on the uber quick Dayjur as a family tree descendant so has plenty of pace in her pedigree and this lto come home first in a very quick time indeed and looks to be coming on leaps and bounds and is progressing at a rapid rate of knots from race to race and i think the run in the Queen Mary come a bit too early for her as she raced too freely , got lit up and then weakened away getting beat 7L in the end but that was sandwiched between two good wins , she had very little to beat lto and it was only a small 3 runner race however these affairs can often prove tactically hard and there is often a false pace made with poor core fractions but this wasnt the case here as it set its stall out early taking the lead on the rail and just lengthened away and quickening up like a very good horse and the time was bloody good as were the fractions in truth and with more to come this could prove to be a real class act in all the back end events for her peer group and then hopefully she will push on to make a nice 3 yr old although thats not an exact science and imi moving away from the point and this summary , this horse will imo take all the beating on what she has shown thus far and what she promises but she wont have it all her own way as some good fillies are lining up to take her on.
With most of this field either held by certain lines of form ( a lot with Parsley ) or looking to be just out n out 6f types i would say the most danger will arise from Al Farrej or possibly Explosive Lady both of whom look to have a touch of class and will be best positioned to take advantage of any weakness shown by DM.

BET SUMMARY : With both Dangerous Moonlite and Explosive Lady towards the top of the betting at 5.0 i would say this makes for a very attractive dutch and for the fearless ( Richard Hurd ) then the 22/1 ++ on Al Fareej looks a cracking EW bet or a FAP in truth but my heart and figures suggest to me that this race belongs to DANGEROUS MOONLITE ( Win Bet for me ) .

RESULT : Dangerous Moonlite was unplaced and faded badly fully 2f out.....thankfully i did get my IR lay matched at 2.72 so i broke even and i had a cheeky place ( FAP ) on AL FARREJ which ran well to get 2nd ( after leading ) @ 23.70.....not the result i wanted but in the end i made a profit...Poor Advice none the less.....

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