Wednesday, 27 May 2015

Brigadier Gerard Stakes

Morning Campers , 
                             Hi de Hi,Ho de Ho its off to Sandown we must go...yes Thursday evening is BG time at Sandown and its a yearly passage of rites for me as it holds many a fond memory including one of my biggest ever wins on a horse during my more formative years on Chatoyant in 1994 ( 21 years ago now...jeez where does the time go ?? ) and has been won by greats such as Bosra Sham ( When Cecil was in the midst of his " Legend " era ) but Cecil who won this 3 times in a 4 year spell never won it again and i would say the man most likely to take the most wins mantle will be Stouts who has won it three times in the last 10 years with Workforce , Carlton House and Notnowcato and has won it prior to this spell with Insatiable and Pilsudski so its obviously a race he wants to win so anything he sends will have to be well respected.

In truth this usually a good looking card from top to bottom so i will give some dues to the supporting races with my main focus on the Brigadier itself.

The day starts off with a steady away 1m2f Hcap for the older brigade and with 13 runners this promises to be a spirited betting heat in a race littered with what can only be assumed as a field of NH types,lowly rated and unreliable so if any horse gets a considerable amount of attention in the market then it should be noted.
DERULO and HALLINGHAM are the only two i can see running to their correct marks and as such will be my two against the field in what is both uninspiring and hard to call obviously i am having to work from my own tissue just now so im hopeful of a decent dutch price.


Full Result

1st (3)InterconnectionE F Vaughan49-4 p1L Morris10/1
Tracked leader, led 2f out, soon ridden, kept on well under pressure final furlong
2nd (12)1Derulo (IRE)D R C Elsworth49-7R L Moore3/1f
Mid-division, headway on outside over 2f out, ridden to challenge over 1f out, kept on same pace, held inside final furlong

Next up its a nice Listed event for the 2 yr olds over 5f and on paper this looks a really warm renewal with every runner having some chance and all coming into this in some sort of form.
Hannon has won this race an incredible 5 times in the last 8 years which is an amazing record and its plain to see he wants this trophy on his mantelpiece so anything he runs goes straight onto the shortlist and he has sent out some very smart types to win this including Sir Prancealot , Tiggy Wiggy , Presto Vento and Signs and its almost impossible not to have his King of Rocks as the shoo in Fav however this Hannon runner in its two runs to date just doesnt look a 5f horse , fto all his best work was being done at the end ( 5f ) and then when upped to 6f he stayed on very smartly to win but only took the lead at the 5f pole and i think his power lay upon his stamina and not speed and this could even be a 7f type or early season miler candidate so at shortish odds im going to leave this alone as i think one or two of the speedballs here will have his number although he may turn out to be the best long term project.
Strands of Time has a slow time rating ( from me as are all stats n ratings ) , Tawdheef is another that could be better over a true 6f however breeding suggests that this could be perfect so goes on the unknown list, Silver Wings doesnt look group class and although decent enough i dont think good enough to trouble some of these comments which also apply to Handytalk.

So we are left with 4 and at the cut off stage i will let go of Buratino ( i feel like an X-Factor judge lol ) and we are down to three , 


And i must admit i am having trouble splitting these as i have them very closely matched however AREEN was to make his debut in a hot looking 4 runner event at York so must be rated very highly at home and he readily beat these including a Hannon 7/4f Dheban by 4L and he ran green but looked potentially top class and im going to say this is the winner for me however i will wait until i can get some prices to really decide on my line of attack.

RESULT :WOW WOW WOW How fucking impressive was the Hannon trained winner KING OF ROCKS...just awesome...a complete demolition job.

1st (3)King Of RooksR Hannon29-0R Hughes11/4
Quickly away, made all on rail and always travelling well, quickened right away final furlong, impressive
2nd (4)5Buratino (IRE)M Johnston29-0W Buick10/1
Held up in touch, pushed along halfway, headway on outer 2f out, soon bumped, chased leaders over 1f out, ridden and stayed on into 2nd final 100 yards, no chance with impresssive winner
3rd (6)1Steady PaceS bin Suroor29-0James Doyle7/4f
Chased leaders but trapped wide, pushed along halfway, went 2nd over 1f out, soon ridden, no chance with impressive winner final furlong, lost 2nd final 100 yards
4th (7)Handytalk (IRE)B R Millman29-0T E Durcan33/1
Slowly into stride, soon in touch, ridden and not quicken over 1f out, plugged on in 4th inside final furlong
5th (5)Silver Wings (IRE)P D Evans29-0J F Egan20/1
Chased winner, pushed along halfway, ridden and lost 2nd over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong
6th (9)s.hAreen (IRE)K A Ryan29-0J P Spencer7/1
Distracted by rival and swerved badly left after start, took keen hold and held up in rear on rail, not clear run and switched left over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong but not recover

Race 3 is the Henry the 2nd Stakes over 2m and a few of these have reputations to re-build and most have not quite produced what they had promised and the word on Forgotten Voice is that he is well in himself and has been going well at home however they have only been really working him over 7f so its hard to say if he can be an effective stayer once again and i will hold off until i have seen some sparkle for myself but i will go with VENT DE FORCE and FOREVER NOW as my two against the field as these both seem consistent and reliable and will be the most likely to run to form and arrive in decent nick but i will only dutch these if i can get at least 4.6 on each in a tough looking heat with High Jinx thrown into the place pot pool.


Full Result

1st (1)Vent De ForceH Morrison49-0R Hughes6/4f

Now its time for the evenings " Big " Event the BRIGADIER GERARD STAKES a race over 1m2f and worth £40k to the winner this C1 Group 3 Event is a noteworthy piece of black type and as discussed has been won by some impressive types previously,this year sees a small field of 6 but its as good a 6 runner race as you are ever likely to find.
It would be a major shock if Niceofyoutotellme should win as this imo has at least 20lb to find and is rubbed off straight away which leaves 5 and the remainder are very closely matched indeed with only a cig paper separating them
Tryster has been very impressive on the AW notching up a rake of wins and being rather cosy about most suggesting there is a lot more to come but racing against these on turf will produce a host of new challenges and until he has shown himself capable against the likes of these he must be watched only.

Tullius is a very nice horse but is generally unproven over this distance ( mainly races at 1m ) and in at this level it would require a huge leap of faith to think he can jump in swim against the tide and is left out of the equation until i have seen evidence he will truly stay at race pace.
Western Hymn is a definite danger and will be included in my bets somewhere as this 2 time CD winner ( Classic Trial & Gordon Richard Stakes ) runs this track superbly and lto beat a horse i really like ( Postponed ) and i think if back to his best will take some beating...a horse that has under delivered in a short career ...its time he stepped up.
Eagle Top is a horse with a lot of promise but im not convinced of his attitude and will need to see more before i can make a concerted opinion but remains on the long list.
That leaves just ARAB SPRING who for me is the winner hailing from the Stoute yard this impressive beast reminds me so much of Glass Harmonium and Harbinger and the way it won the John Porter last time seen made me sit up and this animal is a horse on a massive upward curve and its a shame he is now 5 because im sure he could have been something very special but there must have been undocumented issues in training that have caused this to run a very light campaign to date however he is making up for lost time now and having won 5 of his last 6 races this will take all the beating , loves the ground , loves the trip and is good for at least another 12lb rise in the weights that is nailed on and he ( Ryan Moore ) may try and make all as there is no definitive pace in the race and he will have to be tactically cute as both Eagle Top and Tryster like to arrive deep off the pace and will be looking to swoop late on.


Full Result

1st (3)Western HymnJ H M Gosden49-3James Doyle11/4
2nd (1)hdArab Spring (IRE)Sir Michael Stoute59-3R L Moore9/4f

20:15 ( nap ) 1st @ 4.33

20:45 Another Teofilo Winner ??

Good Luck and Enjoy.


Legatissimo: Will thrive over further
It would appear that Wachman agrees with my own thoughts..Legatissimo: Will thrive over further
The Irish-trained filly aims to become the first since Kazzia in 2002 to complete the 1000 Guineas-Oaks double and Wachman believes it was her staying qualities that helped her win the day at Newmarket.
Speaking at the Breakfast With The Stars morning at the Surrey course, the County Tipperary-based handler said: "She seems very well and we are happy with her as she has done nothing wrong.
"She has only done two or three bits of work and we are very happy with her.
"A mile is a short as she would ever go as a true-run mile sees her stamina come into it.

Saturday, 23 May 2015

Fun N Games in the Land of Ire

Satdee Post Part Deux , 
                                      Its been well documented over the years of my distrust and hatred towards most Irish Racing however i they still manage to have some damn nice races at their wonderful if not corrupt tracks and today is there Guineas day so i will give my thoughts on how the day should pan out but beware all betting in Direland should be done with a pinch of salt.
BALLYDOYLE trained at Ballydoyle by the Irish Master Aiden O'Brien and today the charge is ridden by newly retained Ryan Moore should be the the dobermans undercarriage , this is a Full sister to the excellent Misty For Me who won the following....
At 2:
Won Moyglare Stud S. (IRE-G1,7fT), Prix Marcel Boussac (FR-G1,8fT)
2nd Debutante S. (IRE-G2,7fT)

At 3:
Won Irish 1000 Guineas S. (IRE-G1,8fT), Pretty Polly S. (IRE-G1,10fT)
3rd Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (USA-G1,11FT), Matron S. (IRE-G1,8fT)

Foaled April 9, 2008.
2010 Cartier Champion Two-Year-Old Filly in Europe.
2010 highweight two year old filly in France & Ireland....

So you would imagine that this should or could be very very useful indeed and add in she is also a Full sister to the talented yet frustrating Twirl 
1st: 2012 Hurry Harriet S (IRE-L,3yo+,1900m,Gowran Park)
2nd: 2012 Park Express S (IRE-G3,3yo+F&M,1600m,Curragh)
2nd: 2012 Musidora S (GB-G3,3yoF,2100m,York)
3rd: 2013 Blushing K.D. H (FG,1700mT) )

Then you have a clear idea of what to expect from such a grandiose family tree , By Galileo this is a true blue blood and in a market that has attracted £19k with £16k on this one would also assume the shrewdies and the market think likewise so on the balance of everything available im going to hope its a good as its breeding and as strong as the market and make this my nap ( Ballydoyle was a very poor 4th and thankfully i didnt back it in the end and instead Laid Dewdrop the 2nd string as its progeny have never done anything at 2 , but that was a shocker for an opening run from the fav.)

Marble Hill Stakes next and as you may be aware i will follow religiously anything by Zoffany who along with Libourne Lad will be imo this years Nos 1 bloodline and the AoB team have a smart looking prospect here in the shape of WASHINGTON Dc who is improving at a rate of knots but he will have to improve again to get the better of the two Bolger runners who both look equally useful , impressive looking race on paper.

Full Result

1st (2)Round Two (IRE)J S Bolger29-3K J Manning15/8j
Soon chased leaders, went 2nd 2f out, soon ridden, led over 1f out, stayed on well final furlong
2nd (1)2Washington Dc (IRE)A P O'Brien29-3R L Moore15/8j
Towards rear on outer, headway into 5th on outer 2f out, soon ridden, went 2nd 1f out, kept on same pace in 2nd final furlong
Greenland Stakes neat and is a blast over 6f for these hardy veterans.SOLE POWER ( unplaced ) for me is the winner here , yes agreed it has a woeful record over 6f but a few of those races or attempts are open to discourse and it should be argued that whenever he has tackled 6f he has faced rivals of pure 6f sprint quality and today i dont think he is, he is facing some proven types with some nice looking cv's but nothing that he should fear and the field size is tight enough for him to get cover and lay up sweetly at the back and ready to turn the after burners on come the 1f pole and its my opinion that if he ever to win at 6f then today is the day.

The 4th race on todays card is the big one the Irish 2000 Guineas and it holds a super charged red hot Fav in the shape of Gleneagles ( 1st ) who at 1.40 is one of the shortest favs for this in many a year.
The fav as you may know is not a horse i like very much and won an ordinary Guineas in the UK in a time most decent Hcappers could achieve however such is the paucity of opposition that this animal is just impossible to oppose with only Ivawood the real danger as he was badly drawn lto and suffered in a slowing pack with no cover and much better could be expected today.

Next up is the Lanwades Stud Stakes for Fillies and this will be all about BROOCH and how good she may be ,this is another step up her training ladder but this should be well within her compass and should land this en route to bigger n better things.

In the 1630 BACK ON TOP could be thrown in here racing off just 86 the horse she beat lto by a comfortable length has since franked this form by winning a group 3 event and is now rated 108....which in non literal terms means that any improvement should be good enough for her top win as she theoretically has 10-20lb in hand...theoretically i may add but we will see just how good she is later.

The last race is dogshit so we will leave that to the mugs..good luck and enjoy your racing.

Morning all , lets look at Haydock today...

Well Hello there ;-),
                                 Feeling ropey this morning after a grueling 27 Holes were played yesterday at Howley Hall but what a beautiful course that is in fact i would say its one of the best tracks ive played in the UK certainly makes the top Ten overall and Top 5 outside of Championship Tracks , a delight to walk round ( need a buggy in truth ) picturesque and with some devilishly hard holes and compromising greens and i will certainly be going back...Thanks for that HGS.

Well there was obviously no racing for me yesterday and in truth there wont be much from me on a Saturday or Sunday in future unless there is something big happening as im taking these as days off but i will try n normally produce a card for Saturdays depending on time available thru the day.Today we have a very nice selection of races around the country with Haydock i think being the highlight and its Haydock that i will briefly browse thru giving you some thoughts of mine in regards to today's action and possibly steer you towards a winning bet or three.

So Haydock , The first race and it is a 1m4f Hcap with just 7 runners but a tight affair none the less.
Brotherley Company will have a great chance if it stays but has to prove it stays as i went out like a light lto so is on my list to follow but has to a bit to prove to be confirmed a future black type stayer.
For me i think the bet here is a straight forward Win Dutch on Hernandoshideaway and Fabricate @ 3.65 & 4.30 as i think these two on current form are a little better than the others but i will be very interested to view the run of Brotherley Company.

RESULT : 1st n 2nd and the RFC which paid over 12/1 ( Another one missed )

Full Result

1st (7)FabricateM L W Bell39-2A Kirby10/3
Held up in rear, headway on outside over 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden and kept on final furlong
2nd (1)HernandoshideawayM Dods39-0Connor Beasley3/1
Held up in touch, headway 2f out, ridden to chase winner entering final furlong, kept on, always held
3rd (3)5Brotherly Company (IRE)R A Fahey38-9P Hanagan7/1
Led, ridden and headed over 1f out, one pace final furlong, no impression with front pair

The next race is a 15 runner 2m Hcap which in truth interests me little so its with only the slightest of interest that i give analysis here.

Albert Bridge & Noble Silk are my two EW bets against the field.

Another Handicap is up next but this is a much better quality 3 yr old only 1m event with a decent field size and some very handy looking types about.
Mutarakez will take some beating in this based on its form shown after dominating a good looking field in the Esher Cup and a repeat of that run sees it win but was it a lifetime best or does it have more to offer?...for now i think its the winner but will dutch it with Moonlightnavigator as im quite keen on this long striding son of Henrythenavigator and i think this gutsy type could have them strung out as most of this field like to sit off a good pace and they will certainly get that today.

Result : 1st @ 2/1

The 1510 is the Cecil Frail Stakes over 6f and this is a very odd race to try and work out from a form and stats perspective with all the form all over the place .
There also seems to be imo a big divide in quality although the official bha rankings dont support this but i think a few of these are over rated due to races they have been in and not on what they have done.
I like DIVINE at around 9/1 as an EW bet as this is a sure fire improver and to a degree an unknown quantity and could be well in here with Gathering Power likely to show a better run as well this time.

And finally for the Blog at least today we have the Temple Stakes a brilliantly contested sprint over the years and this years again looks a strong renewal.
With so many exposed types i think a very solid play here is HOT STREAK ( NAP ) with Take Cover as cover.

Right gotta go so ttfn have fun n GL.

PS Notes : Barkston Ash will win again this season and is worth following EW now and stop when it does win and Navigate / Gold Will looks a decent Dutch to round the day off.


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