Monday, 11 May 2015

A very Average Post ...No Tips only Thoughts...

Afternoon everyone , 
                                  Not a lot to mention although i am now back at home so can hopefully get everything cranked up a couple of notches and with a nice weekends racing coming up it would be nice to get my eye back in thru the week and even tho we have a nice Donny card today it is Windsor tonight that i like and its a place close to my heart.
Today's thoughts are just that, thoughts...these are not pro bets , tips or anything else remotely associated with tipping or advice these are simply horses i like and may get involved with tonight although not romantically as obviously that would be wrong...

So Windsor it is then...

Race 1 : TEARS IN MY EYES - Last - Ran like a complete hound.
I had been told last November to watch and follow any half decent looking or purchased progeny from Libourne Lad and this falls into this category with Ryan Moore booked for the ride since the entry stage and related to some high class USA Graded runners i think this will run very close tonight and the current 5.6 is my EW NAP.

Race 2 : GENRES - 1st @ 5/6 - Pissed up . no worries.
NAP - I simply dont see how this loses?...only ever had the one run which was a damn good fto 2nd effort however it must be pointed out that backing odds on jollies in Maidens is a fast route to the poor house and making it a Nap is a fools errand...however...blah blah blah...its the NAP so fuck you.

Race 3 : SHADOW ROCK - Unplaced - v odd run in snatches and not a horse i want to be invovled with again.
This is tricky as any could realistically win including the Champs Elysee outsider however Quick Defence struggled with Putting Green and that trainer sends out Shadow Rock so you would think he has a good idea as to whether or not his charge is upto the task with the answer being a stern Yes.

Race 4 : LOTD - SHIFTING POWER @ 2.24 - 1st - Won v easy ( Lay was a no bet after the 2 non runners killed the field )
Yes based on last years form he has at least 5lb in hand however he ran only so so on his return and many pundits will say that he probably needed the run but i think thats bollocks.
Watch all his runs in the early and Juvenile days over 7f and he was clearly flat out and not the smoothest traveler in the world and then when bumped upto 1m regardless of the class or type of race after racing prominently for 6f would then then be moving through the gears at until 7f and then quite clearly flat lines and runs on empty on anything over 7f and for me that is his problem...not quick enough for 7f and not good enough to be an elite 1 miler so Hannon has no choice but to chance his arm in these shit pool 1m Class 1 events in the vane hope of picking up further black type and a half decent payday for the owners but then if he meets even a half decent group 3 or group 2 1 miler that truly stays then he is fucked because i don't think Shifting Power is Group Class , never was and never will be and at between Even Money and 6/4 i will lay this all night and day every time it races because i will be the long term winner with this type of bet with this type of horse.
What else can win ?..well in truth its of little consequence as any will do but if you would rather back against it than lay then i would say probably Clon Brulee at around 7/1 although yet to run this term the yards runners rarely lack fitness and always carry scope and this proven 10f winner could easily have many of these struggling to get home if a searching pace is sought but the truth any of these can win on their given day as they all carry similar levels of historic form and this is also quite a strong SL Race with further heightens enthusiasm.

Race 5 : SNAPPY GUEST - 5th ( Hampered when making a significant move unable to get back in groove )
1950 Windsor : SNAPPY GUEST - Fallon won on this last day and he travels all the way to Windsor for this sole ride , it won easy lto and has at least 12lb in hand of the Handicapper so a piddling 5lb raise is of no consequence..will be shocked if it doesnt place and lightly surprised if it doesnt Win..Currently 4.90...EW Gift

Race 6 : FIT THE BILL - 2nd @ 5/1- Good run beaten by a v nice type.
This is around 9/1 which i feel is excellent value , yes it has to race truly on turf but it has absolutely hosed up last twice on the AW both times being heavily eased towards the line and still won one by 8L this is a horse on the up and should be followed cracking EW bet.

Rito arse wipes..back later to update with results , keep smiling , keep the faith and Good Luck.

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