Its a beautiful day outside here at the Knavesmire ( York ) with what i would describe as perfect racing ground , the sun is shining and im back in the Arms of my beautiful Tuesday
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| "Tuesday" |
Got my eye in so to speak yesterday and went thru the Bev card and had a couple of nice bets and hit 3 Winners from 8 races @ 7.17 , 9.0 and 9.48 for a nice profit on the day so im feeling good going into the first day of the York Meeting which holds the Musidora as its principal race and this is a track i just love.
Quirky in some respects as it runs well for a good front runner or one that can sit handy and quicken as its a tough track to come off the pace from and on good or firmer this task becomes even tougher its also a track in which the Northern yards like to do well and often field their more fancied runners and Fahey is a master round here which is double dangerous as he is in red hot form just now but also watch those from the likes of Barron and Easterby plus its also a course where the term or phrase " Horses for Courses " is very apt as many previous CD winners have arrived here woefully out of form and then scooted up so watch out for the perennial York horses.
So lets crack on with York and see what damage we can do.
YORK
RACE 1 :
We start the day off with a ridic looking 20 runner Hcap over 1m2f and these tough Hcaps have become a staple in the York diet.This race is also rather surprisingly quite often won by something quite well supported in the market and nothing in the last ten years has won over 8/1 with an average of around 9/2 so i would suggest you just take a look at the top 6 and work down.
CHANCERY has to be high on my list from the to be feared O'Meara Yard and with Tudders doing the steering this CD winner who opened up his campaign this term with a resounding victory on unsuitable ground at Ripon will have everything going for it and at 14/1( expect this to go off a bit shorter ) looks an outstanding EW bet to start the day.
Elsewhere and for PP reasons i think we should also have Tres Coronas as this has a lot of the boxes ticked and arrives with a bit of form entitling him to run a place and i will also keep the faith one last time with Satellite a horse that has won well for me before and was thought group class before faltering over distance that were too far and dont be surprised if we get big runs from Spirit of the Law and Silvery Moon.
RESULT : The 11/4F Wins and im out of the PP after just one race lol...lets hope the day improves!!
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RACE 2 :
Next up is another gargantuan Hcap this time with 17 runners and over 6f so this could end up messy as they could start charging all over like a field full of Fentons.
It is today with heavy heart and great regret that i will finally release my betting grip that i have firmly held upon Hoof It a horse i once thought was going to rule the sprinting world but has continually disappointed after winning the Sky Bet Dash and the Goodwood Stewards Cup this has done just about fuck all and its runs after would lead you to think it was done for and having shown nothing since this is now released into the betting wilderness...along with Valbcheck.
BOGART however comes into this also with some recent form having run a solid 3rd fto this term behind Pipers Note in a 17 runner Bev Hcap however at this moment its hard to see how Bogart can reverse this form as Pipers Note has shown a remarkable consistency and looks 100% genuine so i will have to assume Bogart needed that run and with 5lb of fitness improvement can swing it back his way.
Arctic Feeling , Tatlisu and Mass Rally will all be there at the business end and any with some luck in running could make a play for the winning line but i couldnt back them as they just dont appeal to me and this is more of a heart n gut appraisal rather than a studious professional outlook.
I really like Another Wise Kid but just like at Ripon lto this poor beast has another demon draw and he will struggle from here as i think anything drawn lower than 10 will need to be special to win...
..jeez im running out of options so quick i may have to do some back tracking.
Right my three in no particular order are ,
1. POLYBIUS -
2. BOY IN THE BAR - 2nd @ 12.60
3. BARRACUDA BOY -
Tough Tough race ...Good Luck.
RESULT :
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RACE 3 :
Now we have a Group 2 Sprint the " Clipper Logistics " and this is usually a damn decent race and this years event doesnt look likely to disappoint with some very high class runners involved.
MATTMU ( 2nd @ 17.9 ) may have been let in very lightly by the handicapper having shown hugely progressive form last term and imo still has quite a bit of scope for further and coming from the Easterby stable i would assume this is here to run a big race today and at 25/1 is well worth a second look for the Value Hunters.
MUTHMIR is probably the "class" in the race and will take the beating if ready to do himself justice this is a horse i like very much and is already in my book a solid Group 1 / Class 1 sprinter and will be at the table for all the years big sprints and i think this is just in front of Naddir who is also a very smart sprinter and both of these like to make a play for the victory just as they come into the final 1f and the one thing i would dearly love to have right now is the sectionals from their last three races to compare there final 1f times as i feel this could prove decisive...so if anyone out there has these..send em over.
There are 4 or possibly 5 other real quality sprinters that could also take a hand in the finish including , Musical Comedy , Aetna , Astaire , Justice Day and Jack Dexter ( 3rd @ 23.2 )so nothing can readily be discounted in what should be a fascinating race.
RESULT : 95.6 Crowley ridden winner...LOL...nuff said.
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RACE 4 :
The days BIG race the MUSIDORA Stakes its a Group 3 ( C1 ) over 1m2f and is for Fillies only and is usually Won by one of the more fancied runners and has proven historically to be kind to Favs.
It has to be said that for a £100k race the turnout of 5 is woeful and does nothing for the good name of racing and to add further caste to this this is imo basically a 2 horse race as i can only see either STAR OF SEVILLE or TOGETHER FOREVER winning.
Star of Seville is the Fav and is race fit and a proven distance winner however Together Forever is for me the Winner here as she comes into this with much the better overall form inc a win in the Fillies Mile and being by Galileo i see no way that she doesnt stay the trip ( has been running on strong at the back end of her races to date ) and i think that not only does she have at least 10lb in hand on my current adjusted ratings but will almost certainly race into a low to mid 120 rated runner and will prove too good. ( i have smashed this dutch as its a win/break even dutch with all the winnings on TF and SOS given me a few pence,has to be done its a wallet emptying bet as i can see no other outcome )
RESULT : Star of Seville beats Together Forever by a head and i make an amazing £3.82 Profit ..damn it lol..
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And thats it for today as i have run out of time...hopefully be back for a full card tmrw...Good Luck All.
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