Thursday, 21 May 2015

Not so Glorious Goodwood but its still Better than Ayr ;)

Morning All ,
Well yesterday could and should have been much better as i had both EW singles and an EW double on my two Naps with one coming 1st at 5.02 and the other unplaced but i wanted to have the unplaced runner replaced but went with my ratings instead of my head and Act your Shoe Size ran 2nd at 11/ that was a shame but still a profitable day.

So we move into Thursday and although we have another run at Ayr available  ( a course in which i usually do well due to the consistency of the winning trainers and northern yards ) we will be looking at Goodwood today to see how we fare back down south as the flotilla of big yards look to flex there collective muscles.

We start the day off with a decent looking Maiden ( previous winners include Portamento and Trumpet Major both of whom were very smart ) with a few very nice sorts on show and one with some very decent form however i will be dutching the two Hannon runners as he likes to win this which has been shown with him winning it for three years in a row leading upto 2013 and i wouldn't pay any attention to jockey bookings in this and at 4.40 & 24.0 this looks a very decent Dutch in a race where anyone of these could win with a possible safety net covering the fav ( 3.65 ).

The next is a nice looking H'cap but that isnt imo as competitive as it first appears as God Willing has only its maiden win to date ( over this trip ) and after numerous efforts over 1m in which he has been found wanting at the business end has been dropped back to this 7f trip but this is not a track that will suit and im not convinced he will have the pace required for such an event and he may be one of those tripless types time will tell but not for me.
The bottom three are generally disappointing types and can be readily over looked even those looking at rags will struggle to muster any enthusiasm,Take a Note was raised 17lb early in its career and the following year was dropped 2lb only to muster huge improvement and was raised again another 14lb making it 31lb higher over a three year stint and although consistent and pretty decent its only at a certain level and for me this is a grade or even two too much and is easily dismissed for this.
Bertiewhittle has plenty of ability and a return to the form he showed at the back end of 2013 gives him a massive chance now back on a decent mark but his last three runs have been on the AW and its turf form of late has been less than inspiring and the current 12/1 doesn't interest me at all so is left alone on the basis of low value but if i can get any 20/1 before the off i will nibble at it EW.
So we are left with 3 runners on my hot list and its from this group that i believe the winner will emerge and they are ,

1. FIFTYSHADESOFGREY ( 3.65 ) - 1st @ 11/4
2. MR WIN ( 6.0 ) - 2nd @ 11/2
3. SAUCY MINX ( 11.0 )

and the RFC paid £16.70

and the three of these make imo for a very decent dutch with a split stakes dutch paying 1.70 ( against stake , ie: £200 split between the runners will return £165-£172 on each runner ).

The third race doesnt interest me in the slightest but if i was trackside then i would probably have an ew on Sebastian Beach.

Same really for the 4th race another Hcap in which i cant seem to garner any form of an angle as its so close across the board and none can be ruled out and a speculative punt on Red Rubles would be my call but this is a no bet in reality.
The 1625 is a Listed Fillies event and i like this as the field size and make up makes for a good betting heat.
Loaves n Fishes can be forgiven its first run this term as it blew the start and is obviously considered quite useful by the yard ( take a look at the HCE Sponsored Horse Racing Directory for further details ) however the form of its maiden win has been smashed to bits and is now less than worthless so this will be left alone until it actually show something.
I think Jellicle Ball can lay claim to the LOTD at 2.36 as its done nothing to warrant that price and Buick has left it to ride Miss Giler and with plenty of potential in this field this i feel can be very confidently laid.For me the winner could be LADY OF DUBAI ( 1st @ 7/4 ) at around 3.6 which isnt great value and wont attract a bet from unless it hits 4.4 as i would want to take this on as an EW bet and possibly double , Cumani is a past master at getting these types ready fto but is another with past form that has delivered very little and it will be hoped that the form of its lto win will hold up with improvement enough to make this a decent bet but wait for value.

The 1700 is a very tricky 3 yr old Maiden and a decent sized field makes for a very tough betting heat.Ralph Beckett is the master at training Fillies and all of his require a closer inspection and this race is no different with him training the Daughter of Galileo SYRDARYA ( 3rd @ 12/1 ) and at around 20/1 this looks a very attractive EW bet.
Lead a Merry Dance looks a solid bet in the Finale.

So Bet time...

NAP : The DUTCH Bet as illustrated - BooM as we hit 1st & 2nd = Win

EW NAP: LADY OF DUBAI ( If price matched ) - 1st @ 7/4
                MISS GILER -

LONGSHOT : SYRDARYA - 3rd @ 12/1

LOTD : JELLICLE BALL - 3rd @ 15/8f


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