Saturday, 27 April 2013

April WPGS day...;)

Well so far this season i have played  @

1. Thornhurst ( 23 )
2. Selby ( 27 )
3. Thornhurst ( 31 )
4. Flaxby ( 27 )
5. Thornhust ( 29 )
6. Bondhay ( 27 )
7. Headingley ( ? )
 and now im off to Headingley will i be able to break 36?? , well looking at the course and judging the weather & conditions i think it is ripe for some big scores and i also think i will need at least 39-43 to be in with a chance of winning tmrw which is achievable as i scored 19 Points on the front nine at the very tricky Bondhay only to collapse in the back 9 and losing my head a i need to focus and remain focused the whole way round , i can do it , i have the ability to do it i just need to FOCUS!!!.....lets get it on boys!! coz after this the next big tourn is the Golf week in Malaga in May.....C'mon lets smash it ;)...

Saturday @ Ripon

This is for Matt as i was meant to be going to this meeting along with a few other friends ( good luck today all ) but unfortunately i had to cancel due to other commitments which is a shame as i was looking forward to it ;(..however lets see how i would have got on.....




EW - TWO FOR TWO - 1st @ 6.16


WIN - ARDLUI - 1st @ 6.33


WIN - SHEARIAN - 1st @ 4.30
LONG - IDYLLIC STAR - 2nd @ 3.50


EW - VOODOO PRINCE - 1st @ 2.39
LONG - N/A -


WIN - THE ART OF RACING - 1st @ 2.45
EW - SILCAS DREAM - 3rd @ 11.20


WIN - HAVANNA COOLER - 1st @ 2.58
LONG -  N/A -


Friday, 26 April 2013

Can the FLY be Squatted ?

Hurricane Fly faces just six rivals as he bids to land the Rabobank Champion Hurdle for the fourth successive year at Punchestown on Friday.

Hurricane Fly: Defending his Champion Hurdle title
Hurricane Fly: Defending his Champion Hurdle title

But it is the sole British raider, Rock On Ruby, who is expected to give Hurricane Fly the most to do.
Among the horses taking on Willie Mullins' crack two-miler are three of his stable companions, Midnight Game, So Young and Thousand Stars.
The pair clashed in the Stan James Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham last month, with Hurricane Fly coming out on top by two and a half lengths from Harry Fry's charge.
Mullins feels "home advantage" further increases Hurricane Fly's chances of victory. He told At The Races: "We've been happy with the horse all year. He's been doing all his work well, eating up after, and coming back strong after his races.
"We've spent a lot of time trying to settle him and maybe it's working, as he's not as aggressive as he used to be. Maybe we have to take that into account when Ruby (Walsh) is riding him in the future.
"Punchestown might suit Rock On Ruby, but it's an away game for him, a strange place, where for us it is just up the road. We'd like to think it's home advantage anyway."
Walsh also believes racing on home soil has to give his mount an extra edge. "He's in really good order. Punchestown is 35 minutes up the road for Hurricane Fly but it's a long way from Dorset (for Rock On Ruby)," he said.
Fry knows it will be difficult to reverse Cheltenham form, but intends to ensure Rock On Ruby gives it his best shot.
"We want to ride to give ourselves the best possible chance and that's to play to our strengths, which is that we know we stay," the Seaborough handler said on his blog.
"We certainly don't want it to be a crawl and a sprint so I wouldn't be surprised if we employ similar sort of tactics to the ones we used in the Champion Hurdle. You never know, Hurricane Fly might have an off-day and we'll be there to capitalise if he does.
"It's hard to make a real case to say, 'Right, we're going over there to beat him', especially with the ground conditions but our horse is very fit and well. At the end of the day, it's a horse race and anything can happen."
Rebel Fitz will still take his chance, though Michael Winters is convinced the ground has gone against his stable star.
"He's in tremendous form, he's bouncing, but we're disappointed that the weather didn't go right for the last couple of days. We've been watching the weather like a hawk," said the County Cork trainer.
"The ground is obviously heavy at the moment and I suppose it rules us out of having a squeak of winning. The ground is a huge negative for us, but we will still take our chance. He's in great order so we're going to enjoy it."
Brendan Duke's Mister Benedictine makes up the field with the three defections at the final declaration stage being Hurricane Fly's stablemates Zaidpour and Quevega and the Tom Mullins-trained Fosters Cross.

MY VIEW : On current form and the form shown at Cheltenham i find it hard to see how ROR can turn around the form , Hurricane Fly has returned this season as good or better than ever and another solid win beckons.

Thursday, 25 April 2013

Those Naughty Boys in Blue...

Six month ban for Godolphin horses

Former 1000 Guineas favourite Certify and 14 other horses trained by Mahmood Al Zarooni have been suspended from running for six months by the British Horseracing Authority.

Certify: Banned from racing for six months
Certify: Banned from racing for six months

Al Zarooni admitted administering the drugs in error and named a further four inmates that he had given banned substances to.
Last year's star juvenile was one of 11 horses that tested positive for anabolic steroids following a random BHA test at Al Zarooni's Newmarket stables on April 9.
All the horses, which also include top stayer Opinion Poll, have had their ban backdated to April 9, the date of their first test.
Jamie Stier, Director of Raceday Operations and Regulation for the British Horseracing Authority (BHA), said: "The BHA has today informed Godolphin, the owners of the horses in question, that the 15 horses known to have been administered with either Ethylestranol or Stanozolol have been suspended from running in races for a period of six months, with effect from Tuesday 9th April 2013.
"The length of suspension reflects the period beyond which the BHA is confident that the horses in question can have derived no performance related benefit from the administration of these prohibited substances."



WIN - TATLISU - 2nd @ 2.0
LONG - N/A -
LAY - TEETOTAL - Unplaced @ 9.77

RETURN = £40.00
PROFIT / LOSS = £115.00 Loss
RUNNING PROFIT / LOSS = £115.00 Loss

TATLISU - £100 WIN - Lost £100
DREAM VALE - £55 WIN - Lost £55
LAYBET ( ALL TO LIABILITY OF £350 ) - Won £40.00


EW - CINDERSLIPPER - 3rd @ 4.60
LONG - HOWS LIFE - 1st @ 5.36
LAY - DOUGLAS PASHA - Unplaced @ 40

RETURN = £9.00
PROFIT / LOSS = £91.00 Loss

MULTISURE £100 W/P ( ALL EW BETS TO 30/70 = £30 WIN & £70 PLACE ) - £100 Loss
LAY - Won £9.00

EW - ASGARDELLA - 2nd @ 3.18
LONG - N/A -
LAY - TALQAA - Unplaced @ 13.0

RETURN = £29
PROFIT / LOSS = £21 Loss

MARSHLAND - £50 PO ( PLACE ONLY ) - Lost £50
LAY - £29 Profit


WIN - FENNELL BAY - 1st @ 2.77 ( 1.32 )
EW - ARIZONA JOHN - 2nd = 7.89
LAY - ROYAL OPERA - Unplaced @ 14.50

RETURN = £104.80 Profit
PROFIT / LOSS = £104.80 Profit
RUNNING PROFIT / LOSS = £122.20 Loss

FENNELL BAY - £100 WP - £78.80 Profit
LAY - £26 Profit


EW - APACHE GLORY - 1st @ 9.57
LAY - AILSA CRAIG - 3rd @ 6.28

RETURN = £432.50
PROFIT / LOSS = £432.50 Profit
RUNNING PROFIT / LOSS = £310.30 Profit

APACHE GLORY £100 WP - £402.50 Profit
LAY - £60.00 Profit
AMAZING BLUE SKY £30 WP - Lost £30


EW - DOLPHIN VILLAGE - 2nd @ 3.85
LONG - N/A -
LAY - OFCOURSEWECAN - 1st @ 11.0

PROFIT / LOSS = £450 Loss
RUNNING PROFIT / LOSS = £139.70 Loss

£100 WIN NINE IRON - Lost £100
LAY - Lost £350


WIN - AWAKE MY SOUL - 1st @ 1.90
EW - MANCHESTAR - 2nd @ 3.60
LONG - N/A -
LAY - N/A -

RETURN = £45
PROFIT / LOSS = £5.00
RUNNING PROFIT / LOSS = £144.70 Loss



Plus a full spread PP @ 25p - Landed with 4 Lines @ £18.90
Return = £Loss

Laybets = 6
Winning bets = 5

Profit races = 2  / 7
______________________Total P n L = £150 Loss   _____________________________

So i tried a little experiment out today and although the results were on the whole good i feel the staking needs a tweak and we are still over exposed when we hit a losing Laybet , this was done as an exercise today and is something for me to chew on , going to work on a solid staking structure from a proper bank and see if i can get these cards into a workable product on a work a day basis....That said straight dutching would have returned a good profit, straight wins would have been ok , the big lay loss is a killer..;(...Been a fun , informative day....plenty to work on over the next few days as we have a big week coming up...

Monday, 22 April 2013

Me Tomorrow ;)


 ....Cya on Weds...;-)

and im playing the Championship course that is....Bondhay.

Saturday, 20 April 2013

Well Today...

Yes indeed " Well Today " i did almost feel like saying " Fuck Ya then "as nobody could be arsed droppin a comment in or saying hi or pretty much all anything so no cards today , no tips today and nada el nada but Good lad Simon ( The Owl ) and the lovely Tracey from EPDS Racing did make a late run for conversation and i have been persuaded to run a card of sorts for AYR ( as requested ) and if i get time i may well just add a few nibbles in from Newbury...
You see the thing is Guys ( n Gals ) it can take me upto 4 hours to run a full card out and its nigh on impossible to get done late on thru the morning as im so busy ( most cards are provisionally done the night before then tweaked ) so if you do want any future cards or summaries that are not advertised to be posted then let me know the day before it makes it so much easier all round ;)

Well i have to say...what a stunning morning it has been so far weather wise , blue skies unblemished and quite warm when stood in the glare of currant bun , sat outside with me morning brew relaxing in the glow.....but for how long?....would be nice to just get a few days of this to wipe away the misery of what has probably been the longest winter ever.

We had another crackerjack day yesterday but it wasnt all highs as i had a few that ran well below what i was expecting  ( which is to be expected, after all im not fuckin Merlin ) and a few bad rides didnt help....but we have one or two to watch out for next run and this year has been a good year for the trials and i think we could have a very good Classics Year as we do have quite a few Potential Stars about with a couple more to come from thinking this year will be huge in the big races and we are in for some treats!.

So for Tracey , lets take a look at AYR.


WIN - MUBROOK - 1st @ 8.67
LONG - REAPING REWARD - 3rd @ 10.5
*Tricky race to start on a very tough looking card and it doesnt help that these back end meetings do supply their fair share of shocks but here we go , a Hand n Heels Finale and i think the first stop is with RHYMERS HA which is rather exposed and does need some cajoling thru its races but is an easy ride, good jumper and in the main travels quite well and his consistency could be rewarded here.
Elsewhere i also like REAPING REWARD which appears to have been laid out for this race and has previously shown a very consistent profile and i am expecting a big run from this today.
Finally i think we should have MUBROOK with us a horse that frustrated many a time last season but has shown a far better consistency this term showing up well in his last three runs and not beaten that far and is another that could go well at a decent price ( as i write this this i didnt realise it was just 6.2 )...

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - At decent odds on all three i think we can start the day off with a level stakes Dutch , only average stakes as its a tough race and its quite open so no real amount of strength behind any.
RESULT - A 1st and a 3rd give us a very nice profit to start the day and the drift on Mubrook was nice ;).

WIN - TAP NIGHT - 2nd @ 2.69
EW - RAJDHANI EXPRESS - 1st @ 4.40
LONG - N/A -
*Small field ( disappointing ) but kinda expected after the recent 2 big festival like meetings ( Cheltenham & Aintree ) and with Punchestown on the Horizon theses always attract a strange shape however this imo only concerns 2 runners , RAJDHANI EXPRESS & TAP NIGHT mas i cant see any of the remainder being good enough to break these and i feel the value is with Rajdhani Express although i do expect Tap Night to win as it holds marginally the best form and its recent 2nd behind Captain Conan would be good enough to take this down.

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - Fixed return Dutch on the problemo ;)
RESULT - Well i think we got some luck there as Changing times approached the last and level but was going much better but collapsed thru the final fence and gave Rajdhani express the win miles clear of the 2nd...;)..another great Profit race.

LONG - SAMETEGAL - 2nd @ 4.60
*Now we have the Scottish Champion Hurdle and it looks a nice race but this all revolves around GRUMETI nad has it over come its recent training issues, will it be ready ( should be ) and has anything happened to affect its confidence? , well for me i say yes it will be and yes it should win as it easily has the best form available and i feel it should answer the questions put to it and at 6.0 this is a superb EW bet  , if it loses then so be it but its one of those bets that simply has to be struck.

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - I simply have to smash into GRUMETI @ 6.0  or better EW as this is an outstanding " value " bet , if it loses take it on the chin but you cannot pass this one up , getting 6.0 on a 3.0 shot ( with a run under its belt of any significance then its around 2.5 ).
RESULT - 4th , Looked nailed on for a place approaching the last and there was a mad dash for the line as Court Minstrel come from well off the pace and under a superbly timed ride from Adam Wedge took the Honors...good race , a loss on that one tho.

EW - HIS EXCELLENCY - 2nd @ 10.90
LONG - N/A -
*Next up is another small field affair and its a Hcap Chase that is wide open and any of these could put a run together to win this and tbh i dont have any real strong thoughts on this but i will have a small go on SACRE TOI & HIS EXCELLENCY as both are capable performers and both should be decent prices and i think for small stakes/big returns you could get a lot of fun out of this race.

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - Small level stakes Dutch @ bfsp on these for some fun , dont go crazy.
RESULT - Good race and good fun, we got a decent run for some shillings, only a small stake race so no harm done.

WIN - GODSMEJUDGE - 1st @ 14.50
*And its time for the Big Yin " The Scottish Grand National " and although this lacks some of the luster and is maybe not as hard as the Aintree equivalent its still a prestigious race which is incredibly tough to win and i feel that using the magic Pin is often the best way to sort through real thoughts here , just picking 3 using my Jedi Powers.

RESULT - 1st @ 14.50 tells you all you need to know.

WIN - GREEN FLAG - 2nd @ 5.75 ( Just done on the line , couldnt make up the ground , beaten a HD )
LAYBET : ARCTIC COURT @ 5.9 - Unplaced
*A run o the Mill hcap now and im quite keen on GREEN FLAG a horse that is Both a C & D winner loves most if not all ground types , is super consistent, jumps for fun and has the handy Graham Watters doing the steering and @ 9.8 this is a bet that appeals to me.

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - A decent sized EW punt on GREEN FLAG for me with a small win saver Hollo Ladies.
RESULT - A great 2nd means its yet another good profit race.

PLACEPOT LANDED = 4 LINES @ £538.70 = £448.71 ( ON ADVICE )  Profit.


LONG - FENTARA - 2ND @ 11.30

RESULT - Got a fair run from both runners but neither were good enough although Sydney hit 6/4 in running , Place dutch would have been nice ;)

WIN - TRADEWINDS - ( NAP ) - 2nd @ 2.02
LONG - N/A -
*Tradewinds looks a very impressive recruit to the game and has shown a fair bit of ability when dispatching Master Malt by 13L at Kempton and this could be just that little bit special.

RESULT - Fuck a Duck..this let me down for quite a few doubles n trebles...i would like to blame the ride tbh..too often they sit these hotpots out the back and end losing to something that has a gifted lead...oh well , great day over all.

So there we have it , that is AYR covered , good luck if your playing as we have some tough old races out there today.


Newbury , this has been quite kind to me this week and again we have a rather nice looking card with some wonderful runners and here is a brief list of what i like..

1. SHIELAS BUDDY - EW - 2nd @ 9.69

2. NOBLE MISSION - WIN - 3rd @ 2.26 ( hit 1.14 )

3. BRAE HILL / CAPTAIN BERTIE - EW - Both Unplaced ( Heart Bets )


5. OLYMPIC GLORY ( UBER NAP ) - WIN - 1st @ 1.79
**This i really really like ( like the world and its dog apparently )
6. BOLD SNIPER - EW - 4th -
**Another New Approach Colt for me to follow ;)

The only mega Fancy is obviously Olympic Glory but i do expect to have some fun with the others through the day as i have them in a mix of EW Trebles ( Not OG ).


1. AL FREEJ - EW - 2nd @ 4.30

2. NORDIKHAB - WIN - 3rd @ 1.70

3. NO POPPY - EW - Unplaced ( Ran Ok )

4. SUEGIOO - EW - 2nd @ 3.90 ( beaten in a photo )

5. SATSUMA - WIN - 3rd @ 3.36


7. KUNG HEI FAT CHOI - EW - Unplaced ( Ran Shit )

8. ART DZEKO - EW - Unplaced ( Ran Shit )

And there ya go....lay the lot and fill yer boots lol ;))..time for some Breakfast now before the serious work starts..have a great day all....

Thursday, 18 April 2013

Now we move to NEWBURY....

Toronado is an impressive winner of the Craven

Well another good day yesterday and Newmarket as usual provides me with more profits and that is the name of the game although i have to say yesterdays stand out performance was from TORONADO ( the car in the picture ) a huge strapping beast which devours the ground as it hurtles along without breaking sweat whilst all the others are hard at it ( very Frankelesque ) and this will imo get 1m4 based on that run but lets not forget that although it beat some quality it did only beat 3 other runners so in a big field with more pressure it will have to improve again to show up like that.

So we leave Newmarket for now and move over to Newbury , a quirky track where a lot of form cannot be applied literally as it is quite unique and this is more so with Maidens, do not transfer Maiden form from here to anywhere else as it doesnt translate , however this is a good Grade 1 track which has some decent races on offer and more trials with the most interesting race of the day being the Dubai Duty Free H'cap over 7f.

Dont forget to keep checking the update of the all new web site and pro- program over at Obviously this is still a week or two away from being the finished article but when it is up and running this blog will be embedded directly into so it will all be happening direct from there along with chat features, the Facebook page and Twitter updates as we look forward to a more professional set up and a seamless change over.

PTS after 27 continuous weeks of Profit is heading for its first ever weekly loss ( will post PnL at month end ) after a stella start to the month i was floating but have been brought crashing down to earth with a weeks worth of bad luck , falls and hard luck stories! , it does goes like that some times and on occasions you just feel you are not getting the breaks but i as i must just persevere and see this rough patch out and hope we can move back onto a purple patch in double quick time.....but its a shaky , nervous time ....

and as it is Fri I WANT YOU GUYS ( & Gals ) to VOTE for what card i am to post for Saturday ....NEWBURY or AYR ( Scottish GN Day ) ???...Add vote in the comment box and whichever course receives the most Votes shall be the card of choice ( in case of a tie, the first name posted will be the selection ) .



LONG - SPICY DAL - 2nd @ 16.50
*This is a tricky maiden to get the day under way as Jockey Bookings are confusing, Cheverley Park dont have a Stable or retained jockey yet they have got R Hughes to ride when his own gaffer has a very nice Teofilio Filly in the Race and Hanaghan ( who rode Dutch Courage for Cheverley Park and old gaffer Fahey on Thursday ) is riding for his new boss on Rufoof and Fallon gets the leg up on the potentially hot newcomer from Hughie Morrison Spicy Dal ( *sic ) what do we make of this puzzle?..hmm..What further complicates matters is Abdullah has a Stoute trained horse Pavlosk out of Arch ( i have little Data for this ) with Ryan Moore steering and Mick Channon sends two out ...oh deary me....what a puzzler!!??!!...
Right i think , for me i am going to row in with RUFOOF as my first choice as C Hills is in decent form and i like Zamindar as a stallion with solid bloodlines and good progeny and its always a bonus having Hanaghan riding , i will also have Rock Choir from the Haggas yard with Hughes riding although its a Pivotal Filly and they are quite a mixed bag, speed, stamina , quirky characters and you never know quite what animal is turning up...and finally i think at a pinch we should have the Hughie morrison runner involved Spicy Dal as Fallon is good with the maidens ( just ask Sir Henry Cecil ;) )......Tough call.

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - an EW bet on RUFOOF is my bet selection here ( 40/60% ) as this is wide open and not one to go overboard on....NO LAYBET for this race.


RESULT / ANALYSIS : RUFOOF is imo the best horse in this race, the winner did it well ( PAVLOSK ) however Rufoof totally blew the start and gave them a 6-8L headstart , stuck 2L off the pace out back it made striking headway at the 2 pole only to run into a wall of horses then switched then run on and then with about 50yards left it settled for 4th...Smash this next time out...i really liked this , Spicy Dal ran really well to grab 2nd at big odds , a loss on the race but we was v unlucky  only to get 4th there...Compensation awaits.


LONG - N/A -
*Small field 5 runner Stakes race over 1m2f now and any one of the 5 can win....I feel however that the two to focus on are INCORPORATE and MOCENIGO with the former beating Space Ship lto looking quite good form now after than ran so well a couple of days ago only getting beat 2L by Improvisation ( Dolphin ) and as that was a win over todays distance you know he will stay and is the one they have to beat however Mocenigo has the best overall form on offer and a reproduction of the 4th in the Solario will have him knocking on the door for sure , good looking race with Cap O'Rushes making it a test.

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - A WIN DUTCH on the two selections is the bet with an in running lay at 8.2 on Cruck Realta for cover.


RESULT / ANALYSIS :A break even race as the lay was good but the Dutch was very poor and at one stage i thought 10.0 shot ( the LAY ) Cruck Realta was going to shock but the stout runner Contributer was too good , a very odd run race which turned into a sprint at the end.


WIN - BALTIC KNIGHT - 1st @ 6.11
EW - HERE COMES WHEN - 2nd @ 8.96
*Now we have the toughest race of the day and its time to summon some magic , Ribaat was entered into both the Greenham and the Guineas so coming here could leave you thinking he is not quite sparkling at home although Hanaghan is riding this in preference to Mutazamen so i will leave both of these alone.
I will have SO BELOVED however with a jockey i like very much in J Doyle this Dansili colt got hammered lto and will have to prove his maiden win was no fluke but these sorts can and invariably do come on heaps from ages 2 - 3 so can be expected to show a much improved performance.
We will also have HERE COMES WHEN from the Balding yard and although its 2 runs at 2 didnt leave you gasping there was enough shown to make you think this could be a nice 3 yr old and finally we will have my idea of the winner in BALTIC KNIGHT , Proven over trip , proven in grade and proven on the going and it has arguably the best form on offer when just going down a hd to the very high class Montridge..for me this is a quality bet.

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - BALTIC KNIGHT @ 7.0 or higher has to be a Max EW bet ( 30/70% ) as this ticks all the boxes and has pretty much everything in its favour and it has winning form just over a 1 second slower than both Garswood and Hot Snap so with some improvement expected ( strengthening over the winter ) it will take a good un to beat this today.


RESULT / ANALYSIS : This was a MAX Profits race as we smashed the winner , killed the Lay ( The Fav ) and even had the RFC ( i didnt do it )...Good race for us ( The Blog )


WIN - MERITOCRACY - 3rd @ 4.30
LAYBET: JAZZ - Unplaced
*Now its a tricky 5f Dash for 2yr olds and its a maiden...oh dear..carnage ensues...MERITOCRACY is one with experience and last time out ( lto ) finished ahead of Vodka Time ( Won two days ago - i laid it ) and Vodka Time is obviously a little better than i had given it credit for so that form looks solid and half decent form/experience can quite often prove decisive in maidens and i think on this occasion it should come out best.
Of the others i like STEVENTON STAR from the Hannon stable and NEIGHBOTHER from the Fahey with the latter better bred ( for this dash at least ) and looks to hold the better EW chance.

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - At the likely odds i would suggest MERITOCRACY is the bet EW ( 30/70% ) as it should put its experience to good use and make them all go a bit but as with all maidens nothing is certain and there may well be a few half decent sorts here but then again it is Newbury...


RESULT / ANALYSIS : Another Solid Profit race as we hit with 3rd and an easy win on the Laybet.


EW - PATEESE - 3RD @ 8.2
*Now we have a run o the mill 2m Hcap where i quite fancy the current Jolly KLEITOMACHOS to run a big race with Hughes doing the steering , this previous CD winner is weighted to run well and there should be just enough juice in the ground for him to get a run.
I also think the Queens horse Sign Manual could improve for the step up in trip although it has been a tad disappointing thus far but cant be discounted and neither can PATEESE a useful sort over the sticks that has also shown a fair level of flat form and based on its last run when narrowly beaten over 2m at Bath this could easily get into the mix.

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - I think at the fairly decent odds on all three a level stake/return Dutch is the best bet but my figures ( data report )  has also advised a PLACE LAY on all three at 2.5 or less if available at the time of the off , so i will monitor the markets and if i can get on i will adjust my bets to show 3 level stakes win bets with same stake + 50% place over knowledge...


RESULT / ANALYSIS : Well thankfully i couldnt get my bfsp prices matched so i just stayed with the 3 way Dutch and was rewarded with the Winner ;) @ another good profit race ( PS: Knowledge beat Science )...


*Now we have another tasty looking 3 yr old Maiden and one in which i have a horse i have to follow as i do all the you and untried sorts out of New Approach and this one is NEAR TIME There is nothing magical or scientific behind this selection its just that i follow all New Approach progeny for first 3 three runs ( owes me nothing as i have had a hat full of winners last season and a 20/1 winner already this term ) .
Of the remainder it would appear to be the Cape Cross show as 3 of them are its progeny and they could all be decent but my second choice has to be the beautifully bred HRAC runner MAGIC OF REALITY , this wonderful daughter of Gallileo is entered in both the English and Irish Oaks is expected to go well and i am expecting a big run from this along with the £160,000 Gosden purchase Toast of the Town out of Duke of Marmalade ( had a good winner on Thursday ) .

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - Personally i will be having a wager on Near Time and a Saver with profit ( half dutch ) on Magic of Reality and laying Just one Kiss but for advice purposes ( i cant advise this as its a heart bet ) i would suggest a PLACE ONLY on MAGIC OF REALITY.


RESULT / ANALYSIS :Break even Race as the Lay is good but the Place Back is a fail as Magi of Reality took an age to get going after hitting two flat spots and doesnt look the easiest of rides, still high on my hit list and will be followed but today was disappointing ( both horse and ride ).


WIN - HEERAAT - ( NAP ) - 1st @ 3.75
EW - KINGSGATE CHOICE - 3rd @ 6.07
LONG - N/A -
*The finale, the getting out stakes and i thankfully have my NAP in this so if the day has gone a bit Pete tong i will  ( will be on regardless ) be smashing this as i just cannot see it losing , Heeraat is a group class sprinter racing in a nothing hcap with little to beat imo and i think this should take this in good fashion before moving onto bigger and better things , i napped it on the blog twice last year and it won both times so fingers crossed for the hat trick ;).

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - Im smashing into HEERAAT EW ( 30/70 % ) and i would advise the same to you , this looks an outstanding bet today , if your feeling cowardly smash the place only as i cannot envisage any scenario where this doesnt get placed , it could get stuck in the stalls lose 10L and still be hard on the steel at the 1f pole...yes i think its that good...this could easily be one of the seasons top sprinters.


RESULT / ANALYSIS : BoooooooooooooooM the Monster NAP WINS at a generous 3.75....To make another profit race and another profitable day ;)))


Wednesday, 17 April 2013

Day 1 Summary and Day 2 Review...

Well good evening folks , and what a day today was made a small profit on the first , made a small loss on the second , made a profit on the third , took a big loss on the fourth then smashed races 5, 6 and 7 ( left 8 alone ) so i did ok on day one but it was a struggle at times.
Hot Snap ( Cecil )  is related to the majestic Midday and ran upto the family form coming from last to first and won going away and in quite taking  fashion and trust me this will easily get 1m and the 8/1 for the Guineas is a very fair bet.
Sky Lantern which i napped as a place only bet ran 2nd and ran ok but the 3lb weight allowance and lack of sharpness told as it just couldnt quicken towards the end but did ok.
Garswood looked impressive but im not convinced yet that 1m is for this , absolutely tanking at 5f, quickened at 6f, surged then just ran on and held on....was a nice run but still has questions to answer imo.
Both Intello and Improvisation won well albeit in different fashion and both should be followed.
It was interesting that both the winners of the 7f races and the winners of the 6f races ran almost identical times ( respectively ) giving a rather solid feel to all the races and i was surprised at how much some of these had improved from 2 to 3 as quite often you see regression and a little improvement but some of todays runners had simply improved tons...and one of the key factors from todays races is that it can often pay to come from behind ( ooo err ) and to grab that rail and surge, plenty of clues for us as we move into Day 2.
 Yes this is todays Top Tip <<< >>>.....;)


EW - FIRE BLAZE - 1st @ 7.48
LAYBET : LIMEGROVE @ 10.0 - Unplaced
*First race of the day and we start off with a ludicrous maiden that will be just jam packed with future winners and knowing just exactly what will win these is 30% guesswork , 20% knowledge and 49% Luck ( 1% is a variable that can affect any runner )  so you are at times pissing against the wind with these however i will continue to furnish my selections the same way as i usually do through a mixture of heart over head, breeding , stable form and due expectation , this is not a scientific way of attaining a winner but is a way i Jedi Powers ;).
Firstly i will be having DUTCH COURAGE as my winner as this is the first runner for Fahey from the Powerful Cheverley Park Stud and they rarely have any Lasagne Ingredients floating around the yard and with Hanaghan doing the steering i think this could be rather useful and will be trying all the way.
Secondly we will have FIRE BLAZE from the all powerful Dolphins a strapping filly by Dubawi with Barzalona riding could be anything but should be good enough to get involved ( along with about 10 others ) and finally i will take one from one of the less fashionable yards in ONE CHANCE from Tim Pitt although its interesting the only outstanding entry for this is apparently in October....But this Sister to High class Miler Spinning World could be good enough to run a place at some fancy odds ( currently 44.0 ).
I will also say look out for the Tate runners as they usually fare quite well at big odds ftu ( 2nd @ 29.97 ) , Our Queenie and Autumns Blush as any of these could run a big race , in a wide open race , you pays your money and takes your chance.

SUMMARY :Very tough race to have any real confidence in so i will instead just have a PLACE DUTCH on Fire Blaze & Dutch Courage and hope my Jedi Powers are in good order , a race to have fun on and not go overboard , watch and enjoy and take some notes.
Result : A good Win on this opening race , very encouraging.


LAYBET : SHES LATE @ 8.4 - Unplaced
*And now we move onto the Wood Ditton Stakes ( still one humongous maiden ) and this if anything is harder to solve than the preceding race but by coincidence i am rowing in with Paul Hanaghan again and his mount MUTAJALLY and i will be Dutching this with SASKETCHEWAN from the all new to UK racing ( from France )  Wildenstein team and Cumani will be keen to get a good run out of this typically french bred sort and i will be expecting very big runs from both of these and if either dont run big i will be personally disappointed.
Lastly i have heard thru my very long Grapevine that Gerrards Cross is one of the yards top hopes this season and for a yard that already has such power and strength this is a big word up and this is from a source that doesnt get giddy that easy so again another big run from this in is what a very open ( on paper ) race, another to watch , enjoy and take notes.

SUMMARY : At some fairly decent prices i will be just having a Win Dutch on my 3 selections ( no trades ) and a PLACE dutch on Mutajally and Sasketchewan , no real confidence as i again attempt to utilize my Jedi Powers.
Result : Small Loss on this race as the Laybet covered most of the race costs but the place dutch was a fail as neither really got into this race and this has to be viewed with disappointment.


WIN - GHURAIR - 3rd @ 2.02
*This is another conundrum ( wheres Rachel Riley when you need her ? ) , i think the winner will be GHURAIR this i am sure unless something else has improved by 20lbs and this has regressed then i see no way that this gets beat its form is rock solid with 2 very decent wins in very strong races and a 5th ( only beaten 1L ) in the Vintage Stakes giving the rest an awful lot to do just to get near.
Gatewood is interesting but im struggling to get a handle on its form as it won an egg n spoon maiden at Kempton but is improving but will need to step up markedly on what its shown thus far.
HAVANA BEAT is also worth a strong mention as this won its last race very well over 1m when going away at the finish and this Teofilio Colt could turn out to be quite useful and i do like the Balding yard , as for the remainder well there are a raft of options as at least 6 or 7 are potential improvers and could run big races but at a huge price ( currently 150.0 ) Ladies Man is worth a few shillings for fun this has been completely disappointing thus far showing very little but was thought to be a group horse last year, widely touted as " the next best thing " and was thought to something quite special...but did nothing now it may be a case that it is indeed just not very good but i will chance a fe quid with my other bets just in case in finally decides to run a bit.

SUMMARY : A tough looking race but for me a straight out WIN BET on GHURAIR is the choice as i can find no real argument to go against it and i will have a nibble on the others mentioned for fun.
***I will also say that as much as i think this will win GHURAIR at its current 2.08 is also a very good lay , even money in a tough race if ever there was a " Value " LAY then this is it....just dont be surprised if it hoses up .
Result : Ghurair ran well , quickened then hit hit a flat spot and looked well beat only to to run on again and would have won with another 200 yards in the race although Gatewood ran exceptionally well and wasnt stopping at the line , the MJ trained Franchoek took the pitch " on the rail " and just held on to win, good race, Broke even on the race.


WIN - THE CHEKA - Unplaced
LONG - TICKLED PINK - 1st @ 12.0
*The Abernat Stakes a Group 3 Sprint which is really a glorified Hcap Sprint and sprinters are notoriously inconsistent at best and fathoming out which will be up to the challenge this early on is anyones guess but i will try my hand with proven experience ( not that many lack this ) and consistency of THE CHEKA to come out on top today , a true class act on his day and upto to giving any sprinter a good go if in the mood and i think 4.9 is just about right although i would have liked a bit more so will probs go in with a bfsp bet and hope it doesnt get smashed , it has won 4 times but only once over this trip when winning the Cammidge Trophy last year but does get 7f very well so will be upto sitting handy of a fast pace and this race is packed with fingers crossed.
Of the others i also like HAWKEYETHENOO a thoroughly exposed sprinter but decent enough regardless and usually runs a honest race along with the very interesting , unexposed dark horse TICKLED PINK from Sir HRAC this hasnt run for nearly a year but must have been showing some decent stuff at home to get an engagement here.

SUMMARY :A tricky race in many ways and another in which to keep bets to a minimum or spread across , i will be having a Win Bet on THE CHEKA and a PLACE LAY ( for profit ) as cover as i feel this will either win well or get swamped at the 5 pole and get shuffled back.
Result : The Cheka was unplaced after blowing the start so provided us with some profit and a small punt on Tickled Pink provided a few more pennies to the coffers , another solid Profit race.


WIN - TORONADO - 1st @ 1.82
LONG - N/A -
LAYBET : TAWHID : Unplaced
*A very poor turn out for such a decent race and prize , 4 runners but i cannot see past Toronado or Dundonnell here as they look far superior in every way.

SUMMARY : The dutch on these two pays 1.31 and simply has to be smashed to bits imo as i just cannot see one of these two not winning.
Result : TORONADO looks huge and powerful and was just effortlessly cruising all the way out in front and put them to the sword 1f out and it was all over , this is a very special sort and should be followed, i really liked this run , another big profit race.


EW - MULL OF KILLOUGH - 1st @ 4.70
LONG - N/A -
LAYBET : BOOM OR BUST @ 8.8 - Unplaced
*Next up is the Earl Of Sefton Stakes for some of the older brigade and this looks a tough race to call with the frustrating as fuck Bonfire lining up to regain some respect alongside the eternally enthusiastic Premier Loco and the Vastly improved Mull of Killough but its is BONFIRE who i will be giving one last chance to if it cannot win this then i feel it will never win again.

SUMMARY :BONFIRE straight win but this is a bet of heart over head here but rather lemming like i will plow more in again and hope that it can rediscover some of its latent ability.
Result : Bonfire never settled but ran on well for 3rd and the jusy is still out, the winner Mull of Killough is just all guts with a small bit of class and stay very well , good profit race for a dutch , and thats 4 Winners from 6 races today and 6/6 on the Laybets and another solidly performing and profitable card.

And thats it for today, Just the 6 races to highlight from a possible 8 as i have some work to do on my full members site so have a Great Day all and enjoy ;)

Tuesday, 16 April 2013


Well its finally here , the Flat season proper starts with a weeks worth of great racing which i will be covering every day.
 Day 1 sees us take in 4 quality races ( The Tatts , Nell Gwynn , European Free and the Fielden ) and all the big boys are out to play so lets smash this week and look forward to the Scottish National on Saturday ( as well as a cracking Newbury card ).

LONG - RED ROCKER - 2nd @ 33.50
*A very tough Maiden to open the day up and one that is packed full of blue bloods and although is usually won by something rather useful is not a great race for favs.
None of those with experience look anything special and i will pass over all of these as the newcomers here will all be wound up and ready for action , Early on in the season its nigh on impossible to get an angle on most yards but more so the Dolphins so it is with a bit of trepidation i nominate BALAD as the winner here but this so wonderfully bred it would be a shame not to see this win at the first attempt.
Of the others Assembly is bred with both Speed and Stamina ( more Speed ) and could prove a very good early 2 yr old although wouldnt be expected to be the best long term & Red Rocker looks another precocious sort from the Meehan yard and with Fallon doing the steering is likely to get a full run out and should have a say in the final outcome.

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - You can make a good solid case for lumping EW on any of the selections although i cant solidly advise any as a " good bet " speculative only , at this early stage its hard to say which way to play as im thinking more about laying and Place Laying so i will wait until the market settles down before making my final decision but im Thinking Back BALAD with a for profit LAY on MESSILA STAR.

EW - M'SELLE - 2nd @ 7.70
LONG - N/A -
LAYBET : VODKA TIME - 1st @ 3.18
*Now we have a small field , tricky conditions race where all 5 have a chance of sorts and all bar one come into this holding some ok or better form.
Looking at my speed ratings i would say Vodka Time has the least chance being easily the slowest on all fractions and i dont see it being the currently available to back 6.0 come 9am more like 12+ , the newcomer Bahamian Heights would not have to be a world beater to take this down as those that have run have returned quite uninspiring ratings so backing this is by no means a poor idea.
Of those that have run ORTON PARK has returned the best overall speed rating but did hit a flat spot mid race which pushed his fractions down but that can go down as greenness as he responded very well ( winning and placed runners behind giving the form a solid look ) and this is imo the one they will have to beat.

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - Straight WIN on ORTON PARK with a saver on M'selle as Split Rock doesnt look quick enough ( but its an MJ runner so who really knows? ), Vodka Time has no fucking chance what so ever and can be happily laid for every penny one can muster ( oh Deary me , this was expensive ) and Bahamian Heights being a dark horse ( dont be surprised if it wins tho ).

100,000 Tattersalls Millions 3-Y-O Sprint

*The first of the days big 4 races and this will be a tough race to call with so many arriving on the back of great last season runs or having already sharpened up this term by running well and with over 30lb separating them on TFR ( no allowances here ) this will be very interesting.
If this were over 5f i would probs be all over Bungleinthejungle as this holds easily the best form of these and could be a very smart sort this term but its only run over 6f was disappointing ( shit ) and i cant get involved with it until i have seen it run however if it has grown up and strengthened then this could be a monster...but that is " if "...and at 3.7 i will gladly lay this and pay the penalty to find out.
Another runner i really like here is VICTRIX LUDORUM a CD winner from the strong Hannon yard this has won over both 6f & 7f and has won on both Soft and Gd/Firm so ground is not a worry as it obviously acts on any , this can race alone or grouped and can be on or off the pace making this an almost ideal race horse and Richard Hughes rides this course as well as any , this horse excites me and i feel the main dangers could well its stable mates as these three ( Tamayuz Star & Amberleigh Heights ) look very useful indeed , he must love his job having the wealth of riches at his disposal.

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - Straight WIN on VICTRIX LUDORUM with for profit savers on the other two Hannon runners and a LAY on BUNGLEINTHEJUNGLE.

CSP European Free Handicap (Listed)

LAYBET : GARSWOOD - 1st @ 3.86
*Now we have the Free Hcap a race that a few years ago used to be a real marker for whats what but it has lost some sheen over the last few years but yet again Hannon comes in heavy with two runners that will both be in the shake up and either could win although i feel Emell is the stronger of the two and probably the fittest after its recent very good 2nd behind the decent Teophilip but we will take on the might Richard Hannon here with three less obvious sorts.
Firstly i think we should have ANNAS PEARL in our corner ( a good run from Tamayuz Star and /or Clancy Avenue would improve confidence ) as this has shown he stays with a good run over CD in the 500k Tatts race last season only being beat 6L by Havana Gold and Ghurair both of whom are very useful indeed.
Garswood is interesting but will it stay 7f at pace ( and there is plenty ) ?? not so sure and at 4.2 this is another im happy to lay all day.
WELL AQUAINTED has form that keeps it closely matched with Annas Pearl and has shown it stays this 7f very well ( has winning form over this trip ) and finally we will have AYAAR fighting for us as this is another tha has proven form over the trip and some very useful maiden form with a very good looking 3rd to the very good Toronado and has speed figures that put it right in the mix and i fancy one of these to ruin the Hannon roadshow.
**Dont be shocked tho if Hannons wins again...;P

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - LAY on GARSWOOD has to be the strongest bet of the day and should be the main bet here , for Backing i would say a Dutch ( backing one or more runners in the same race to win ) on the three selections either win or place should provide a return.

**GARSWOOD won very tidily and won quite easily, i was impressed, its grown , its strong and is a v nice horse for this season.

Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes (Fillies' Group 3)

WIN - SKY LANTERN - 2nd @ 4.30
*Arguably the race of the day but what isnt in question is todays most striking and beautiful looking horse and that award goes to SKY LANTERN Sky Lantern: Carries a penalty
A stunning looking animal and not without a major chance in this as this holds some excellent form over this 7f trip and simply has to be a major player but will the penalty  ( 3lb ) be a burden too much?...personally i think a place at best but i wouldnt be shocked if it won.
Baileys Jubilee was a favourite of mine last year but looked all speed and i simply cant see this lasting out but is not really an option for a lay at 12.0 ( but is worth a lay in running at 5.6 ).
Hot Snap ( 1st @ 17.0 ) from the powerful Cecil/Abdullah partnership could be anything as it ran as a relatively unfancied 7/1 shot in a weak AW maiden fto which it won comfortably but what did it beat?...not a lot and the form is currently a mile wide of what should be required to win here but it must have been showing up well at home for it to be entered, interesting but not for me.
The we have the highly regarded LADY NOUF from Haggas a distance maiden winner and is another with any amount of improvement but i feel it will need around 36lb of improvement to get involved in the finish which wont be happening today, too tall an ask for this today.
NARGYS i really quite like and i am expecting a big run from this , has good form on different ground types , stays the trip and looks likely to be involved in the finish.
Finally we have CD winner WATERWAY RUN and this will make them all go as this generally likes to race up with the pace and could take their legs off if thee others are not careful.

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - A very tough , competitive race where so many hold a competitive chance and there is not a lot between the top 6 or 7 , SKY LANTERN for me is the winner but is plenty short enough here at 4.1 as i really want around 5.2...but with so many others having questions to answer over stamina i cant really go against it so for me the bet here is a MAX PLACE ONLY bet @ bfsp with a small win dutch.

ebm-papst Feilden Stakes (Listed)

WIN - INTELLO - 1st @ 2.60
LONG - N/A -
*The final of the big 4 and a lot easier to work through not least because their is only 2 that really interest me from this 7 runner field but because i feel that Both RACE AND STATUS & INTELLO could be different class with the 1m winning form of INTELLO probably the strongest on offer but only just and Fabre hasnt sent this over to answer questions, this has come over to win.

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - INTELLO looks the most likeliest winner coming into this with marginally the best form and is another that wont lack for fitness , my bet here is a WIN bet and a saver on Race and Status And LAY the arse out of KING GEORGE RIVER because if this wins we may as well all pack up and go home as we are fucked.

WIN - IMPROVISATION - 1st @ 2.83
LONG - BATTALION -non runner -
*A tough looking Maiden for 3yr olds but one that is fascinating as we get to see ( Morpheus ) the Mighty Frankel's Half Brother ( Same Dam ) again after a low key fto run and with it being in double figures it doesnt carry much market confidence but..another year, more strength and hopefully this can come out and carry those famous silks to victory??...

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - In a stupendously tough maiden i will row in with IMPROVISATION this strapping son of Teofilio ran in 2 very hot maidens last year and will have come on a ton over the winter and i have this on a prov rating of 86~ so with improvement should be able to run to around 95+ and for any maiden to win at that level is nigh on impossible , it will take something a bit special to lower his colours and a confident bet is advised An d LAY SPACE SHIP as this will need the assistance of the Millennium Falcon to win here today and probably any day.

*And we round the day off with a tremendously tough 17 runner sprint handicap and this one will require the use of my magic pin......

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - Take your Winnings and hit the pub ;-)....

Tonight's Big Game....

This looks Nailed on for a BTTS and is a Max Bet for me!.

And tmrw we start a great week for racing with the Classic Trials all kicking off and we start with the Craven Meeting....Full reviews all week as we look to step up a gear.

Monday, 15 April 2013

Todays Phoenix Racing Facebook NAP..

" Phoenix Racing : Gin Time /Jofranka both look quite decent bets today , However the horse that interests me the most today is NEARLY CAUGHT from Hughie Morrison , a big bay colt out of New Approach that is very nicely bred all the way through and im sure if this was trained by Stoute et al ( a more fashionable yard ) then this wouldnt be the 28.0 chance it currently is , There are a couple of interesting newcomers in the race and some mild form but at a price it wouldnt takle a great leap to see this place or better..."

RESULT = 1ST @ 23.0

Sunday, 14 April 2013

Will this be the Real Deal ??..

I am indeed talking about uber hyped wonder horse MICHAELMAS The $500,000 Tabor / Smith investment this is the first foal from the USA Grade 1 winning Christmas Kid and very big things are expected but until i can see this in the flesh i will hold on to some thoughts but i am very much looking forward to seeing this run and i will be backing it regardless although @ 1.81 i will hold off as i want at least 2.26....

RESULT : 2nd @ 2.22 ( Beaten a Neck )

Summary Traveled sweet enough and always looked good , 1 and 1/2f out the pace quickened and Michaelmas seemed to hit a flat spot then seemed to take a while to get fully wound up ( nice long striding sort ) a couple of whips and he finally started to motor but the bird had flown , definite ability and will improve for experience , may need another run and/ or further but one to follow.


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