Wednesday, 17 April 2013

Day 1 Summary and Day 2 Review...

Well good evening folks , and what a day today was made a small profit on the first , made a small loss on the second , made a profit on the third , took a big loss on the fourth then smashed races 5, 6 and 7 ( left 8 alone ) so i did ok on day one but it was a struggle at times.
Hot Snap ( Cecil )  is related to the majestic Midday and ran upto the family form coming from last to first and won going away and in quite taking  fashion and trust me this will easily get 1m and the 8/1 for the Guineas is a very fair bet.
Sky Lantern which i napped as a place only bet ran 2nd and ran ok but the 3lb weight allowance and lack of sharpness told as it just couldnt quicken towards the end but did ok.
Garswood looked impressive but im not convinced yet that 1m is for this , absolutely tanking at 5f, quickened at 6f, surged then just ran on and held on....was a nice run but still has questions to answer imo.
Both Intello and Improvisation won well albeit in different fashion and both should be followed.
It was interesting that both the winners of the 7f races and the winners of the 6f races ran almost identical times ( respectively ) giving a rather solid feel to all the races and i was surprised at how much some of these had improved from 2 to 3 as quite often you see regression and a little improvement but some of todays runners had simply improved tons...and one of the key factors from todays races is that it can often pay to come from behind ( ooo err ) and to grab that rail and surge, plenty of clues for us as we move into Day 2.
 Yes this is todays Top Tip <<< >>>.....;)


EW - FIRE BLAZE - 1st @ 7.48
LAYBET : LIMEGROVE @ 10.0 - Unplaced
*First race of the day and we start off with a ludicrous maiden that will be just jam packed with future winners and knowing just exactly what will win these is 30% guesswork , 20% knowledge and 49% Luck ( 1% is a variable that can affect any runner )  so you are at times pissing against the wind with these however i will continue to furnish my selections the same way as i usually do through a mixture of heart over head, breeding , stable form and due expectation , this is not a scientific way of attaining a winner but is a way i Jedi Powers ;).
Firstly i will be having DUTCH COURAGE as my winner as this is the first runner for Fahey from the Powerful Cheverley Park Stud and they rarely have any Lasagne Ingredients floating around the yard and with Hanaghan doing the steering i think this could be rather useful and will be trying all the way.
Secondly we will have FIRE BLAZE from the all powerful Dolphins a strapping filly by Dubawi with Barzalona riding could be anything but should be good enough to get involved ( along with about 10 others ) and finally i will take one from one of the less fashionable yards in ONE CHANCE from Tim Pitt although its interesting the only outstanding entry for this is apparently in October....But this Sister to High class Miler Spinning World could be good enough to run a place at some fancy odds ( currently 44.0 ).
I will also say look out for the Tate runners as they usually fare quite well at big odds ftu ( 2nd @ 29.97 ) , Our Queenie and Autumns Blush as any of these could run a big race , in a wide open race , you pays your money and takes your chance.

SUMMARY :Very tough race to have any real confidence in so i will instead just have a PLACE DUTCH on Fire Blaze & Dutch Courage and hope my Jedi Powers are in good order , a race to have fun on and not go overboard , watch and enjoy and take some notes.
Result : A good Win on this opening race , very encouraging.


LAYBET : SHES LATE @ 8.4 - Unplaced
*And now we move onto the Wood Ditton Stakes ( still one humongous maiden ) and this if anything is harder to solve than the preceding race but by coincidence i am rowing in with Paul Hanaghan again and his mount MUTAJALLY and i will be Dutching this with SASKETCHEWAN from the all new to UK racing ( from France )  Wildenstein team and Cumani will be keen to get a good run out of this typically french bred sort and i will be expecting very big runs from both of these and if either dont run big i will be personally disappointed.
Lastly i have heard thru my very long Grapevine that Gerrards Cross is one of the yards top hopes this season and for a yard that already has such power and strength this is a big word up and this is from a source that doesnt get giddy that easy so again another big run from this in is what a very open ( on paper ) race, another to watch , enjoy and take notes.

SUMMARY : At some fairly decent prices i will be just having a Win Dutch on my 3 selections ( no trades ) and a PLACE dutch on Mutajally and Sasketchewan , no real confidence as i again attempt to utilize my Jedi Powers.
Result : Small Loss on this race as the Laybet covered most of the race costs but the place dutch was a fail as neither really got into this race and this has to be viewed with disappointment.


WIN - GHURAIR - 3rd @ 2.02
*This is another conundrum ( wheres Rachel Riley when you need her ? ) , i think the winner will be GHURAIR this i am sure unless something else has improved by 20lbs and this has regressed then i see no way that this gets beat its form is rock solid with 2 very decent wins in very strong races and a 5th ( only beaten 1L ) in the Vintage Stakes giving the rest an awful lot to do just to get near.
Gatewood is interesting but im struggling to get a handle on its form as it won an egg n spoon maiden at Kempton but is improving but will need to step up markedly on what its shown thus far.
HAVANA BEAT is also worth a strong mention as this won its last race very well over 1m when going away at the finish and this Teofilio Colt could turn out to be quite useful and i do like the Balding yard , as for the remainder well there are a raft of options as at least 6 or 7 are potential improvers and could run big races but at a huge price ( currently 150.0 ) Ladies Man is worth a few shillings for fun this has been completely disappointing thus far showing very little but was thought to be a group horse last year, widely touted as " the next best thing " and was thought to something quite special...but did nothing now it may be a case that it is indeed just not very good but i will chance a fe quid with my other bets just in case in finally decides to run a bit.

SUMMARY : A tough looking race but for me a straight out WIN BET on GHURAIR is the choice as i can find no real argument to go against it and i will have a nibble on the others mentioned for fun.
***I will also say that as much as i think this will win GHURAIR at its current 2.08 is also a very good lay , even money in a tough race if ever there was a " Value " LAY then this is it....just dont be surprised if it hoses up .
Result : Ghurair ran well , quickened then hit hit a flat spot and looked well beat only to to run on again and would have won with another 200 yards in the race although Gatewood ran exceptionally well and wasnt stopping at the line , the MJ trained Franchoek took the pitch " on the rail " and just held on to win, good race, Broke even on the race.


WIN - THE CHEKA - Unplaced
LONG - TICKLED PINK - 1st @ 12.0
*The Abernat Stakes a Group 3 Sprint which is really a glorified Hcap Sprint and sprinters are notoriously inconsistent at best and fathoming out which will be up to the challenge this early on is anyones guess but i will try my hand with proven experience ( not that many lack this ) and consistency of THE CHEKA to come out on top today , a true class act on his day and upto to giving any sprinter a good go if in the mood and i think 4.9 is just about right although i would have liked a bit more so will probs go in with a bfsp bet and hope it doesnt get smashed , it has won 4 times but only once over this trip when winning the Cammidge Trophy last year but does get 7f very well so will be upto sitting handy of a fast pace and this race is packed with fingers crossed.
Of the others i also like HAWKEYETHENOO a thoroughly exposed sprinter but decent enough regardless and usually runs a honest race along with the very interesting , unexposed dark horse TICKLED PINK from Sir HRAC this hasnt run for nearly a year but must have been showing some decent stuff at home to get an engagement here.

SUMMARY :A tricky race in many ways and another in which to keep bets to a minimum or spread across , i will be having a Win Bet on THE CHEKA and a PLACE LAY ( for profit ) as cover as i feel this will either win well or get swamped at the 5 pole and get shuffled back.
Result : The Cheka was unplaced after blowing the start so provided us with some profit and a small punt on Tickled Pink provided a few more pennies to the coffers , another solid Profit race.


WIN - TORONADO - 1st @ 1.82
LONG - N/A -
LAYBET : TAWHID : Unplaced
*A very poor turn out for such a decent race and prize , 4 runners but i cannot see past Toronado or Dundonnell here as they look far superior in every way.

SUMMARY : The dutch on these two pays 1.31 and simply has to be smashed to bits imo as i just cannot see one of these two not winning.
Result : TORONADO looks huge and powerful and was just effortlessly cruising all the way out in front and put them to the sword 1f out and it was all over , this is a very special sort and should be followed, i really liked this run , another big profit race.


EW - MULL OF KILLOUGH - 1st @ 4.70
LONG - N/A -
LAYBET : BOOM OR BUST @ 8.8 - Unplaced
*Next up is the Earl Of Sefton Stakes for some of the older brigade and this looks a tough race to call with the frustrating as fuck Bonfire lining up to regain some respect alongside the eternally enthusiastic Premier Loco and the Vastly improved Mull of Killough but its is BONFIRE who i will be giving one last chance to if it cannot win this then i feel it will never win again.

SUMMARY :BONFIRE straight win but this is a bet of heart over head here but rather lemming like i will plow more in again and hope that it can rediscover some of its latent ability.
Result : Bonfire never settled but ran on well for 3rd and the jusy is still out, the winner Mull of Killough is just all guts with a small bit of class and stay very well , good profit race for a dutch , and thats 4 Winners from 6 races today and 6/6 on the Laybets and another solidly performing and profitable card.

And thats it for today, Just the 6 races to highlight from a possible 8 as i have some work to do on my full members site so have a Great Day all and enjoy ;)


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