Friday, 31 May 2013

Dawn Approach WILL WIN..

This is the Winner of 2013's DERBY @ Epsom , i have reviewed all the races from all the runners , i have examined breeding and all potential weakness and i see nothing to beat this grand beast who will be on Saturday extending his unbeaten run...Take a Bow.....DAWN APPROACH.

This will be a Oaks /Derby DOUBLE for sire New Approach after TALENT romped to victory in the Oaks on Friday and lets not forget that New Approach himself was by Galileo ( English and Irish Derby Winner among others ) this will be a short price to back on the day but is in my opinion a BANKER and simply has to be smashed with every spare penny you have.

The Full card will be available to view by PUK members from 1130am on Saturday.


Well we have had the first taste of our " Classics " in the Guineas and now its time to get serious as the Flat season ramps it up a few nothches with this weekend being the start of a quite amazing 4 week spell with the likes of this weekends Oaks/Derby taking place and big ( stellar ) meetings coming up at Ascot and Goodwood.....June is THE time , June is MY time....Lets make some money ;))...

However i have to say this week coming back from my Jollies i have had what can only be described as a dry cold , been lethargic , weak , tired and unable to operate at any level for more than short periods of time and i can honestly say that ive never felt as drained as i have this week and i can only hope this wears off quickly as im getting pretty sick n tired of feeling like this...

So whilst i am still fuming about some poor PPL results ( becoming frustrating and standard for the EoM ) i couldnt quite decide on what card or review piece to post up today , full card ? , a take on the favs ( becoming popular ) , lite ?......Then i got this short burst of energy and thought ahh fuck it ..its Oaks Day and only a full card will do so here goes....( Continued Friday Morning as i fell asleep ;( )

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~OAKS DAY~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~>>>

RACE 1 :

Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Investec) (Fillies' Group 3)1m 114y

  • (3yo+, 1m 114y, Class 1, 9 runners)

Cracking race to open the card up and a race where all 9 remaining runners have a chance, all are racing in their respective grade and all carry form into the race ( new and old ) with just one coming in for their seasonal debuts.
Virtually nothing to split on either the ratings or speed data this will be a tough race to call,Beatrice Aurore will attract a lot of attention today as its Frankies comeback ride and has a chance but maybe not quite as strong a chance as a few of the others and is overlooked by me today.
Starscope is a frustrating animal and not without ability but does lack a final kick and does " down tools " at the business end of her races and cannot be trusted so is another left alone for this.
the first one of interest is SENTARIL a daughter from one of my favourite lines Danehill Dancer and this has run very creditably in all her races with a few victories thrown in and has to come here with a cracking chance along with THISTLE BIRD who probably has the most scope of these and is entitled to be an improver and should run a solid race but does have a few questions to answer.
Finally we will have LADYS FIRST on our side after a great comeback run at York over slightly further and just tiring up at the end, she will have come on for that and holds a few on form and is pretty much gteed to run her race and i will be surprised if she doesnt make the frame.

EW : LADYS FIRST - 3rd @ 12.80
LONG : THISTLE BIRD - 1st @ 4.08


RACE 2 : 

Investec Wealth & Investment Handicap1m 2f 18y

  • (4yo+, 1m 2f 18y, Class 2, 8 runners)

Now we have a rather tricky small field Hcap with quite a few dodge pots here and from the field at least 6 can win if on a going its a guess as to what will be in the mood....There are only a couple that really interest me in this and they are BLUE SURF who makes his seasonal debut but is coming from a yard that has been firing in a few winners of late , has the form in book to prove he is upto the task, likes the distance and the ground so all being well should run a decent race and then we have the returning RESURGE a winner of this race in 2011 and a 3L 2nd last year of a slightly higher mark and a big run is pretty much gteed as this will be the target for the year with anything else a bonus.

EW :  RESURGE - 1ST @ 8.50
LONG : TRES CORONAS - 3rd @ 6.10


RACE 3 : 

Investec Diomed Stakes (Group 3)1m 114y

  • (3yo+, 1m 114y, Class 1, 7 runners)

Truth be told this is a disappointing turn out for this handsome £35k prize and the small field is made up of largely disappointing beasts that have ability but have either been punching above their weight , been out of form or failed to fire so its another where a leap of faith is required when punting.
I feel GREGORIAN is our best chance here and his 2nd in the St James Palace Stakes behind the enigmatic Most Improved is probably the best form on show and he showed with the comeback run that he is holding his form well and i feel is a grade higher than most of these and certainly more consistent and has to be the play.

WIN : GREGORIAN - 1ST @ 4.09
LONG : N/A -


RACE 4 : 

Investec Mile (Handicap)1m 114y

  • (4yo+, 1m 114y, Class 2, 14 runners)

A wide open Hcap with a lot of tried n trusted form on show and is another race full of dodge pots although i am slightly confused as to why Hughes is riding Mister Music which to me looks the weakest of Hannon's 3 runners and has done nothing in its last 5 runs ??...TOTO SKYLLACHY is the obvious form horse after a neat double at Beverley and has to go on the short list even with a further 6lb rise this simply has to be involved here although if one or two of these turn up with their " A " game then it could be a different story as the likes of BRAE HILL and HI THERE are more than capable performers on their day and could easily get involved in the finish but this is not a race i like much as both Levitate and Maverick could also easily join the party.



RACE 5 : 

Investec Oaks (Fillies' Group 1)1m 4f 10y

  • (3yo, 1m 4f 10y, Class 1, 11 runners)

Here we are finally , the big one, the fillies classic and tbh it looks a cracker and this is the one that can throw up a few surprises and big priced winners ( last 3 winners were 9/1 , 20/1 & 20/1 ).
The first place for me to start is with BANOFFEE who simply pissed all over Gertrude Versed lto and will have no problems with the trip and Hughie Morrison is doing great this term and has quite a few nice sorts knocking about.
Then we have the Aiden O'Brien runner in MOTH ( has won this race 3 times in the last 12 years ) a decent looking sort and easily the stables first string as Say doesnt look good enough but Moth was running on at the end when 3rd in the 1000 Guineas and if she stays could easily take a hand in the finish.
Next up is imo the " Class " in the race and that is SECRET GESTURE who won her trial at Lingfield by an astonishing 10L and was never off the bridle and simply has to get involved here and will surely be placed at the minimum as this daughter of Galileo has heaps of improvement to come and could be absolutely anything.
But for me the " Value " bet in this race is THE LARK ( 22.0 ) a half sister to previous Oaks winner and top class Sariska this Pivotal filly will need to improve to get involved but could easily do so as this has had only the three runs to date and is still learning ( like a few others ) and at decent double figure odds this is well worth a punt EW against the likely favs.
There are a couple of unknowns in the race but the remainder by n large just dont look upto this grade and are imo just making the numbers up in a fascinating renewal.

WIN : SECRET GESTURE - 2nd @ 4.46
LONG : THE LARK - 3rd @ 23.46


RACE 6 : 
To round off my Placepot card we have a 7f Listed event with just the 7 runners and a trappy little race it is too.

LONG : N/A -



A decent card ruined by too many Hcaps but decent enough in quality , let the fun commence ;)..............

Wednesday, 29 May 2013

Brigadier Gerard Stakes

View from connections ahead of Thursday's Cantor Fitzgerald Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown.

Danadana: Ground concerns
Danadana: Ground concerns

The winner of three good handicaps last season, Danadana took his game to another level with an impressive last-to-first run when making a winning seasonal return in the Huxley Stakes at Chester earlier this month.
Luca Cumani is hoping conditions at Sandown do not deteriorate ahead of Danadana's bid for glory in the Cantor Fitzgerald Brigadier Gerard Stakes.
He gives weight to each of his five opponents on Thursday - including last year's Investec Derby runner-up Main Sequence - and Cumani admits his charge may need to improve again to get back in the winner's enclosure.
"All has been good since Chester, the horse is very well," said Cumani.
"I am just hoping the ground isn't too soft. If it is like it was at Chester, that would be OK, but he wouldn't want it much deeper.
"This could be a tougher assignment with the penalty he has to carry, so we'll see what happens."
Cumani is keen to get this Group Three assignment out of the way before committing to future targets.
"Let's take it one step at a time," said the Newmarket-based Italian.
Trainer David Lanigan is also keeping his fingers crossed Sandown misses the rain ahead of Main Sequence's second appearance of the season.
The four-year-old was favourite to make a winning comeback in the Buckhounds Stakes at Ascot earlier this month - his first start since being gelded - but he was ultimately well held in third behind Ektihaam and Thomas Chippendale.
Lanigan is confident his charge will be a different animal at Sandown, provided conditions are in his favour.
"He came out of his race at Ascot very well and he needed the run badly that day," said the Upper Lambourn handler.
"I was very pleased with how he ran. We knew the two horses that finished ahead of him had already had a run and if you'd asked me where he'd finish before the race, I would have said he'd finish third.
"He was very fresh and I think he'll come on a lot for the run.
"He's coming back in trip, but it's a stiff 10 furlongs at Sandown and hopefully it won't inconvenience him too much.
"I just hope the rain stays away."
Clive Brittain is keen on the chances of Miblish, who encountered a troubled passage when fourth behind Danadana in the Huxley Stakes.
"I think we were very unlucky not to win at Chester, but you can get stuck there," said the veteran Newmarket handler.
"He came out of the race in good form and I think he's going to Sandown with a good, solid chance."
Mukhadram is an interesting contender for William Haggas, for whom he makes his first appearance since finishing a creditable fifth in the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket in late September.
Angus Gold, racing manager for owner Hamdan Al Maktoum, expects the four-year-old to improve for the run.
Gold said: "He was working well early in the season and then he had a minor hold-up which set him back a couple of weeks, but he's ready to run now.
"He is a big, gross horse and William thinks he will need the run, but obviously we'd like to get him to Royal Ascot and we badly need to get a run in.
"William has always said if he stays a mile and a half he could be a very good horse.
"Richard Hills rode him work the other day and thinks a mile and a quarter is far enough for the time being, but I think he could get a mile and a half eventually.
"We always felt he would be a better horse as a four-year-old, so we're looking forward to seeing him start back."
The field is completed by Marcus Tregoning's Boom And Bust and the Clifford Lines-trained outsider Proud Chieftain.

Christina Hendricks

This is one seriously sexy woman ( almost as nice as my lovely wife ;) ) and this is yet another small Homage ...

Tuesday, 28 May 2013

Afternoon All..

I always find it hard coming back after a break , tough to get the rhythm going and picking up the hot n cold lists  and my mind was very much still in Holiday mode yesterday as i ambled my way thru the cards missing good spots and hitting some bad ones but thankfully i managed to come out alive and in profit which is key to all my endeavors.
Back working on the new website again today with some minor tweaks coming up as i will be focusing mainly on PPL and the Group meeting race cards as i got off to a patchy start with slow updates , mis-information and poor re-telling of advice which was compounded by me then more or less instantly taking a week off , not the best timing in the world but hey ho the long term members are with me so all is good.

We have another fairly steady day's racing today but there is enough to get into with some nice looking races and a few nice sorts jogging about although with out doubt for me its the evening cards that hold all the aces with some good early evening action on offer.

Today's Blog will focus on 1 meeting and looking at backing or laying the Favorite from each race with LEICESTER being the card of choice.

5.1 The field with a 101% book tells us the first part of this story....this is wide open and with the current market in this shape GENERALYSE is a Big STAT LAY ( check PUK legend for info on Stat Lays ) so i will be laying this as i feel there is plenty enough against it , Bussa is worth considering as an EW punt.


Another tight affair with a slightly bigger book at 102% but no stat lay as Abanoas makes a mess of the field even with no chance it still ruins a good book and another stat race so lets just take a look at the current Fav which is PLUNDER a very well bred sort that sluiced up making all to win its maiden on the AW at the first attempt however they put it up to 1m next time out and it didnt quite last the trip out and capitulated in the final 1f eventually running 4th of just 5 ( only beaten 5L ) and in same grade they then sent this back to Kempton AW for its 3rd run and this time with a rather higher than expected rating of 79 for a Hcap over 7f ( same as CD win ) and again they tried to make all but got swamped in the final 1 and 1/2 Furlongs in a better grade race that was run and won in a time nearly 3 seconds faster than its CD maiden win suggesting these were just a wee bit too good although improvement was expected but not forthcoming.
Finally on its last run the sent it to race at Naas over 6f on Turf for the first time and it got absolutely steam rolled coming home 17/18 and was never in with a chance after being heavily outpaced early on.
It is my opinion that this horse is not improving and if anything has actually regressed and i would only rate it around 64 as it has done nothing since its debut win although that said this is now racing back over its ideal trip ( based on gathered evidence ) and is racing in a grade 6 bargain bin affair lacking any real quality but would i take the 5.2 on Plunder...Not a chance , so its a LAY then but this is one of those that is a bit too close for comfort , i will be crossing my fingers in this one.

RESULT : UNPLACED = WIN ( Easily Beaten )

PYTHAGOREAN looks to have an outstanding chance today and even at cramped odds ( 1.84 ) i think this should win , a superb victory over CD lto ( won by an eased down 5L ) gives the rest plenty to do and a repeat of that run alone will suffice here , there is some competition but not enough to get me off this fav.

RESULT : 1st @ 1.97 = WIN

BURNHAM comes in at 3.5 and on a book of just over 101% and with the rag at under 31.0 this is another STAT LAY.
This looks and feels like the market suggests...wide open and with plenty to fight against the Fav is another auto lay the fav race.

RESULT : 2nd @ 2.81 ( Just beaten in a Photy > traded as 1.21 Fav in the Photy Market ) = WIN

KAIULANI comes in at 3.95 and with the field price running at its current levels this is almost a stat race but not quite as the book is uneven at 103+% and im expecting some upwards movement on the roughies so can we justify taking on this fav??.
An open looking maiden over 5f for 2yo with only the one runner with experience ( very poor efforts ) and only a couple i like on breeding including the fav , i also like Gold Top and Excels Beauty but having just the two running for you with such a big priced fav causes problems although technically the Fahey , Dascombe and Botti yard have runners giving you an edge but are largely unfancied which raises its own set of questions.
On the plus side you also have the Prescott runner and his early season 2yo's must be noted and respected but im still not entirely convinced a Lay is a good bet here.
At the moment im thinking a FAP on GOLD TOP is probably the bet to make but that is not what this exercise is about today, today its about the Favs......although i dont like it i think at a pinch a LAY on the Fav is probably just the right call but its another close one.

RESULT : 1st @ 3.19 ( solid but not easy ) = Loss ( Hopefully my write up put you off laying this ;) )

This is another super tough to call 2yo Maiden with the Fav being ERTIJAAL @ 3.2 ( Oasis Dream ) but i feel personally only around maybe 5 have any real chance here ( based on breeding and performance stats ) and i simply cannot lay this fav , for me the bet here is a 3 way dutch inc the fav ( any 3 from top 5 in the market ) although i cannot correctly identify the dutch to play.
The runners i like are , TOOFI , TOORMORE ( 1st @ 4.24 ) , ERTIJAAL ( 2nd @ 3.61 ) , DALAKI & BOUNTY HUNTER although @ 80.0 Dalaki is unlikely to figure so im left with 4 and this has to be a race left alone as a betting proposition , push , shove,push,shove...push.......LAY the Fav but with zero confidence.

RESULT : 2nd @ 3.61 ( Just couldnt get up but well clear of the 3rd ) = Won ( Hope you ignored my write up and Laid ..haha )

BIG THUNDER @ 3.7 from the Hcap king Prescott and this is a LAY for me , yes i know he does really well with these types but they do get over backed and quite often under perform ( albeit this is a very weak race ) there are plenty in this race that have as much potential for improvement and the Lay here is the only sensible play.

RESULT : 3rd @ 3.20 ( Easily beaten ) = Won

TAHAF in this finale looks a decent bet for me , Div of these Hcaps and this is another very weak race and Tahaf has the most solid recent form and would have been in with a squeak of winning lto if not for being hampered at a crucial stage in the run with only a couple of average looking dangers i see this making a bold bid today and should run well but 3.05 is a bit too skinny for me to be backing at , i will be looking for 4.2 ( unlikely ) or i will be just lumping the FAP.

RESULT : 5th ( Tardy start , disappointing ) = Loss


Looking at this i would say today is a good day for taking on these Favourites , good luck with whatever you do..;)
**Good Day overall , im happy with that ;).

Monday, 27 May 2013

Hola Shmola ;)

Morning All , well im back after a fun filled , drink fueled week in the sun playing Golf with the WPGS in Marbella ( Estapona ) and what a great week it was with La Quinta the highlight and Valle Romano the toughest scoring thru the week 39,40,39 and then 22 to come 3rd ( from 20 ) so a decent enough performance but i really need to work on my putting as that savagely let me down for a heap of points through the week ;(.
Been checking in on the FB Phoenix Racing Page and its nice to see the old hands still banging in winners and doing generally quite well , not so good is returning to see my Website still not updated since May14th and looking patchy ...this is not good enough but i cant do everything so for now it will be what it will be what it will until it becomes more regimented.

Nice to see Just the Judge win yesterday and Magician ( won easy yesterday after letting me down for a treble lto ) but wtf is going on with Camelot??!!? this shot to bits or what??...

Well happily enough i return and its a Bank Holiday with plenty of racing to get me back into the mix.

PHASE SHIFT in the 1400 @ Cartmel should hose up even giving lumps of weight away this is different class to this motley bunch and the current 1.7 looks far to big. - 2nd @ 1.56 ( Hit 1.03 and couldn't hold on )

At Windsor WHAT A DANDY looks interesting at big double figure odds , this is a bay colt by Dandy Man  a sire that has had a sparkling start and has produced a good number of early season winners and placed horses especially over these sprint distances and this is worth an EW at big odds.

Over at Redcar MOANING BUTCHER for MJ and SDS looks to have a leading chance and considering its gteed to stay i think the 8.2 is a fair price in a weak looking race.

SDS looks to have another good ride in TAHAAMAH in the Zetland Gold Cup and is another that will probably go off in double figures after not quite getting the trip lto over 1m4f but had been running well in Meydan over the winter and this drop to 1m2f should be ideal.

So as i have plenty to do to do ( usual chores etc ) i will leave you with my one banker and 3 for an interesting EW Trixie , have fun today on this day of rest and i will be back on full cylinders in the week with a full card for the Brigadier Gerrard Stakes meeting at Sandown and then we have a bumper DERBY weekend to look forward to happy days ;)....

Saturday, 18 May 2013

A few Hours to Kill....

Whilst i wait and pack i have a few hours spare today so i have rummaged through the days cards looking at a few possible bets to stick on for some afternoon fun n games and tbh there is a plethora of interesting runners today and some very decent runners , here are a few i like....


First Foal of the excellent Group 1 winning Passage of time  and by Monsun and this is a very exciting colt at a nice price for its debut thanks to Hannon running a couple and making the market short , obv we have no real idea of ability at this stage but i will be happy having a punt at 10.5 and i will be dutching this with SASKATCHEWAN ( 13.5 ) from the Cumani stable as im following all the Wildenstein runners.

RESULT : Heart ruled my head and i paid the price as my Stats Pack told me to back Remote ( 1st @ 28.10 ) but i ignored my own stats and went with my bloodlines and Wildenstein...Saskatchewan ran well until tiring 1f out and backing out quickly and Retirement Plan was never put into the race.

2. NO BET -
Although i would say Gallipot is the most interesting runner here but this is a low value race.

RESULT : Willing Foe routed these and at 6 beating a sorry lot and frankly this form isnt worth a shit tbh , Gallipot was garbage.

3. NO BET -
If Khawatim can transfer its AW form onto turf then this must go close but not a race to punt heavily on.

RESULT : Ran ok for 4f then flat lined , didnt seem to act well at all.

4. HILLSTAR ( 2.02 ) WIN - 2nd @ 10/11
This is going to take some beating today as it holds on recent runs both Salutation and High Troja and all bar two look below this level , the two that could cause a surprise are Kitten on the Run from Cumani this is a Italian Listed winner and unbeaten and could be anything and we have the Derby hopeful Tarikhi who is another that is unexposed and open to any amount of improvement however Hillsatr has both fitness and form in the book and is a strong bet today.

Declaration of War could be a wonder horse , the betting suggests it is as its been hammered all week , the owner Michael Tabor is flying over from Ireland just to watch the race and all the noise coming from Coolmore would suggest this is winning however on what it has actually acheived , on the races it run and won  and on all known form this has a lot of improvement to find to get in the mix here as its easy lto win wont even be good enough to place here and at the cramped odds i am not taking it on but swerving it but my own general feeling is that it wont be winning.
FARHH  ( 1st @ 4.89 ) is obviously very interesting and is not without ability but i personally feel it needs further and may get out paced here but could stay on strong for a place ( FAP ) .
And lastly we have the enigmatic , odd moving , awkward travelling Beauty Parlour a odd sort that moves her feet in a very quick fashion and is something usually associated with Fast Ground and dirt types as they like to bounce over the surface and if the ground stays on the firm side of good she may be ok but HRAC is the master when it comes to dealing with fillies and now hes had some with her we can expect a completely different run from the lto effort and i will be having a few pounds on this along with Cityscape.

PRO BET ADVICE  : Cityscape ( Place only @ 2.02 ) - Unplaced - Ran no race at all, looked unfit and flat and the whip was out fully 2f out - Jury is now out - v disappointing


6. QUINTET ( 8.2 ) EW - Unplaced , Did nothing , Looked poor in the paddock.
A good looking maiden with several top yards showing up but its Quintet i turn to hear as Beckett / Crowley have won 3 of the last 5 renewals for this and i have a feeling they have saved something good for this.
Gregori , Shamal and Plover could all run well with Gregori the most interesting of that Trio.

7. YOUR THE BOSS ( 5.2 + ) EW - Garbage - LoL ;)
If you find a maiden where a horse with form rated at 80+ is involved then get on as it would take a mammoth first run for any horse to run to 85 , not that its not possible but just highly unlikely , a really good fto winning run will only produce a provisional rating of around 76-78 and then with experience the rating gets fully formed to allow for fluke or luck , Your the Boss has a few runs under its belt now and has shown some decent form and never really beaten by much more than a length this should have the street smarts to win here although its doubtful if she will remain the best of these in 6 months time.

8. NO BET -



1. NO BET -
Robert the Painter has come down a long way in the weights and is running for a very in form combo , this would probs be my EW selection. - Did Nothing , soon hit 1000 in running - 

2. NO BET -
If the ground was soft or on the soft side of good i would be all over BIOGRAPHER EW but without knowing how it will act on this firmer surface its a swerve as a case can be made for at least 6 of these with Tiger Cliff also looking like a top rated potential improver. - Tiger Cliff Wins @ 6.02 -

3. NO BET -
Another trappy race but i do like PURCELL if it can learn to settle and keep calm through its races and use the energy towards a finishing kick i think this can be top class but has been racing on and off so far , would be a speculative choice only. - Ran well but was chopped for room in final 1f , unplaced in 6th but only a couple of lengths away.

4. DUNDONNELL - WIN - NAP - 1st @ 3.0
 @ 3.45 or higher this looks an outstanding bet and if you can attain EW value then lump on , couldnt live with Toronado lto but that is a serious grp 1 horse and his form without that look plenty good enough , a 4th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf , a Narrow defeat ( again to Toronado ) in the Champagne Stakes and a good win in the Acomb Stakes leaves this well clear imo and i will be surprised if he cannot rout these.

PRO BET : DUNDONNELL - WIN - 1st @ 3.0


5. NO BET -
Wide Open , no real opinion on this.

6. DAWN OF EMPIRE - EW @ 7.4 + - 2nd @ 8.24
A low quality maiden that holds the 82 rated Quadriga as top rated but is without a run this term so is overlooked and im going to have an EW on the well bred Charlton newcomer.

7. SONG AND DANCE MAN EW @ 8.2 + - Unplaced
Another maiden but far superior in quality and one with an odds on Fav ( always worth laying maidens like this ) and i will be doing just that but i will also be having a go on this gelding by Danehill Dancer as i have had a note for it and is quite well thought of.

8. NO BET -
Persipolis at a push but is wide open and not one to get involved in.


And that will do now as i must get on haha..ttfn x.....

Friday, 17 May 2013

Cya Later Alligator

Adios Amigos...but just until the 27th ;)) , as i am away now  ( with 19 others ) for our Yearly Golf expedition to Malaga  and obviously i may have a beer or two ;)....

Although the weather is only forecast to be around 20-25 i think that shud be warm enough to pick a tan up ( if not im off back in July for another two weeks ) so clubs are clean and packed, cases ready , and im ready to rock...just gonna chill n have a nice few hours off with the Mrs tmrw before we set off good luck with your punting through the week , take it easy and keep smiling and keep the faith ttfn x.

Preakness Stakes

ORB...This powerful , athletic and wonderful looking sort looks a class apart and is every bit the superstar and with a poor draw to overcome i can see no other result than ORB winning...This race will be Orbsome ;).

Trainer Shug McGaughey believes Orb has the potential to produce "something special" in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico on Saturday.

Although the Kentucky Derby hero will break from a potentially uncompromising berth in stall one in the second leg of the Triple Crown, connections anticipate another big show from the unbeaten son of Malibu Moon.

"I think there's more (to come), but he's got to tell us that," said McGaughey.

"What really surprises me is how he comes out of his races, not only mentally, but physically. He's sure come a long ways since the Florida Derby.

"I can't wait to run him on Saturday afternoon, and maybe we'll see something special."

Louisiana Derby runner-up Mylute is considered Orb's biggest danger, having finished third in the Kentucky Derby.

Co-owner Paul Bulmahn said: "Orb is a good horse, and looks very good, and performs well, and has improved each race, too.

"He (Mylute) hasn't gone out and won a big Grade One somewhere already, and yet he keeps developing and each race he keeps getting better and better and better."

Departing finished third in the Louisiana Derby on his debut before winning the Illinois Derby.

Trainer Albert Stall jnr told the "We just didn't think he got enough out of the Louisiana Derby to make that step forward (to the Kentucky Derby), and he had to earn his way to the Preakness, so we got that done in Illinois.

"I guess a lot of people would have most likely thrown him in the Derby, but he's a gelding and we just didn't want to tear him up. We just wanted to see one more race and kind of what we have.

"We still don't know exactly what we have, but we learned a lot more - we feel very comfortable being here. I think we're going to go run our 'A' race.

"Whether that's good enough or not, I don't know, but he acts like he's going to go fire."

Friday @ Newbury


" Well Day two of the York Trials meeting was a slight disappointment compared to Wednesday although i did win well on PARBOLD @ 4.8 as i held firm for my price ( wanted at least 4.5 ) and that kinda made my day after losing a bit on Greatwood ( Never had a chance after a poor start and pulling all the way round ) but that was my only real loss of concern as everything else either paid me out or was a non runner and of course a few from York yesterday were in deed NO BET races with advice there purely for the theatrics ( advised fun bets etc ) and i did state on the Day 1 Review that York is very much a place that can indeed be aptly labelled a " Horses for Courses " Track as some do specialize here and that was proven as both Navajo Chief and Ancient Cross both scooted up here at big prices and will no doubt do nothing all season again.
And with Day 3 looking not at all Punter Friendly i have diverted my gaze through to NEWBURY in the hope of finding more luck and winners , i have struggled a bit this week with York and its been a tough meet to profit from even more so when the conditions change dramatically and the markets dive up and down.
We do have our Facebook page live so feel free to drop in for some advice, banter or a general chat if your at home having some bets.
Also there has been some confusion as to the bet selections and placement as some shouldn't be getting Placed as advised bets and others are being left off , i can only apologize for this and will try to remedy this situation asap" .

So its off to Newbury we go and a track that is quite quirky itself but is one i do usually fare well at so lets crack on...

WIN - CHAMPIONSHIP - 1st @ 4.06
LONG - MAN AMONGST MEN - 2nd @ 25.90

SUMMARY - A tough looking maiden to start the day off with some very well bred sorts and a runner from our breeders list in IFTAAR from the in form Hills stable , this is bred for the trip , will enjoy the ground and should give a decent account.
As usual in a field made up predominantly of newcomers, the betting may give some vital clues. As it is, the speculative vote goes to CHAMPIONSHIP given Richard Hannon has a good record in this race and jockey bookings suggest he's preferred to Alaskan. Martin Harley's presence on Ambiance point to his chances ahead of stablemate Jallota and he's also preferred to the Brian Meehan pair Cabaan and Man Amongst Men. Iftaar and the 140,000 euros colt, Gm Hopkins, are both first foals and worth noting along with Berkshire, although the latter may need further to show his best " .

BET ADVICE - NO BET - Iftaar EW will be my play here but its not a race that pulls me in and i shall save my bullets for later.

EW - WINSILI - 1ST @ 3.20

SUMMARY  - This is a good Oaks Trial and has been won by some very smart horses in the past and most recently by the likes of Izzi Top and Clowance so the winner should be noted from this race for future reference.
For me this will boil down to a straight fight out between WINSILI & VALTINA both of whom are expected to improve from the opening runs and its the latter that gets the overall nod as she will have fitness on her side although i dont expect there to be much in it and The Lark should should run well after dodging a few appointments to take this up.

BET ADVICE - WIN DUTCH with Winsili & Valtina. - WIN ( Winsili 1st @ 3.20 )

LONG - BERWIN - 4th ( Done at 1.30 FAP )

SUMMARY  - Now we have a run o the mill 1m2f Hcap which consists of mainly poor , inconsistent and untrustworthy types and this isnt a race to really get too involved with.
Brown Pete is usually thereabouts at this level without being good enough but it's hard to know what to expect from Garrisson, who posted a couple of woeful efforts either side of winning at Lingfield. Matraash scored at the same track last time and has a 9lb hike in the weights to contend with but Evergreen Forest goes unpenalised for winning an apprentices race at Warwick last week. Sinchiroka and Breakheart have been running well at Wolverhampton but the vote goes to recent Chepstow third BERWIN with Josh Baudains taking 7lb off his back today. Bridge That Gap and Bold Cross are others with a shout.

BET ADVICE - NO BET - I will be laying Matraash at 4.3 ( current price )  and looking to trade it off tmrw when i expect the price to be a good deal higher ( if not i will leave a keep bet back trade in @ 6.6 ).***Lowest Matched trade was 5.8 and 6.50 for some proper money ( £100+ ) now 14.0 @ 14:32 ( awaiting off ) ....

EW - ALUTIQ - 1st @ 4.96
LONG -  N/A -

SUMMARY - A 2yr old Conditions race with just the 6 runners and 3 of them saddled by Hannon...ORIEL went off an Odds On Fav for its first attempt and traveled like the winner throughout but when Rizeena ( previous experience counted ) kicked on it could not match the sustained run and with that run under the belt i am expecting this to win ( well touted and hyped up pre race ).
Alutiq could be the one to cause an upset as this also returned a losing Fav lto ( last time out ) but  was a little unlucky imo and will run well again here.

BET ADVICE - WIN bet on ORIEL , saver on Alutiq. - **Saver on Alutiq brings in some profit.

EW - NINJAGO - 3rd @ 2.17
LONG - N/A -

SUMMARY - A 6f Listed Class 1 event for 3 yr olds and its yesterdays Non Runner we turn to today in the shape of SOUND OF GUNS which was presumably pulled as they thought the ground was soft with all that heavy rain that poured onto the Knavesmire and she is still well in here and i still think a big run is on the cards.
NINJAGO will be very hard to beat tho super consistent , travels, quickens , battles and has some good form and racing over its ideal trip this will make them all battle for a win.

BET ADVICE - Fixed Return Dutch on Sound of Guns and Ninjago.- 3rd / 4th = Loss


EW - NICHOLAS CANYON - 2nd @ 3.8
LONG - AUTUN - 3rd @ 6.2

SUMMARY  - Next up is a steady 1m Hcap but its a medium field that looks packed with class  ( on paper at least ) actually some of these do look quite decent for the grade and this is a competitive race where the winner will be hard to call.
Nichols Canyon will be a popular choice stepping up in distance after a third at Sandown on his reappearance. He should go close but MAGICAL KINGDOM is marginally preferred. He could only manage third over today's distance at Kempton on his handicap bow but the modest pace will not have suited and he should prove better than that on his first start on Turf. Autun wears his owners first colours ahead of Incorporate and will likely stay the trip having won his maiden over a mile at Nottingham last season while Prairie Ranger will have come for his return at Haydock and is another to consider on his handicap debut.


WIN - SEMEEN - 1st @ 4.60

SUMMARY  - Another Dreary Hcap to round this day off but i am quite sweet on SEMEEN here and i feel this has more scope than most and its interesting to see Hughes riding for Cumani.
Luca Cumani's runners are better for the outing more often that not, but SEMEEN is worth the risk in this company. He's only 3lb higher than when scoring at Newmarket in August and we may not have seen the best of him yet. Perfect Cracker is getting no closer despite slipping down the weights but Cashpoint is better than he showed on his return at Pontefract last month. Laser Blazer usually runs his race but remains hard to win with and the same can be said of both Tenessee and Spirit of Xaar. Ssafa, last of four at Bath on Wednesday, can race off a lower mark than when scoring on the Polytrack under Paul Hanagan last month and Grand Theft Equine may be capable of better on only his second start on Turf.

BET ADVICE - SEMEEN - EW - 1st @ 4.60 = Win

Views from the DARKSIDE ( Value Vader ).....

Trainer Ed Dunlop is hoping the real Concise will show up when she goes for the Swettenham Stud Fillies' Trial Stakes at Newbury on Friday.

Ed Dunlop: Concise hopes
Ed Dunlop: Concise hopes

"I've run her twice on grass and she has run appallingly, both times at Newmarket," said Dunlop.
The American-bred filly has shown a decent level of form on the all-weather, but has flopped abysmally on her two runs on turf, both at her trainer's local track of Newmarket.
"She won at Kempton as a two-year-old and we went back there and she wasn't beaten far on her first run this year not fully wound up by a filly (Zurigha) who then went on to finish fourth in the French Guineas.
"It's very much a fact-finding mission for us. She did get agitated when she came off the horse-box and went straight to the racecourse so she will go early there and hopefully settle down. It's very much a case of watch and see."
The Lark, trained by Michael Bell, puts her Classic credentials on the line when she makes her seasonal reappearance in this Listed contest.
The daughter of Pivotal showed lots of promise in her two starts as a two-year-old, both in October.
After finishing fourth on her debut at Nottingham, she got off the mark over a mile at Doncaster.
"She would certainly have her chances enhanced by some more rain, but she has looked exciting in her work and we hope she will keep her Oaks chances alive with a decent effort here," the Newmarket handler told

Thursday, 16 May 2013

I did say.....

York is a track that suits the phrase " Horses for Courses "....And with two Big priced winners already in ANCIENT CROSS and NAVAJO CHIEF following these track specialists would have already paid smart dividends.....Shame i dont take my own advice as all ive managed to do today is knock on the door...

Drop in for some Banter ...

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Facebook ..;)

This is going to be an amazing Race..

Its not Just the Classics that grab the headlines as this race will demonstrate , the JLT LOCKINGE  a race for 4 yrs + over 1m and this years renewal has attracted what i feel is a stellar line up and will be a brilliant race to watch.

Aidan O'Brien's Declaration Of War, a midweek gamble for the JLT Lockinge Stakes at Newbury on Saturday, heads a field of 13 for the first Group One of the season for older horses.

Declaration Of War: Midweek gamble
Declaration Of War: Midweek gamble

O'Brien also runs Reply.
The former Jean-Claude Rouget-
trained colt was available at 7-2 on Monday but sustained 
support now has him as the clear favourite around the 7-
4 mark.
Saeed bin Suroor's Farhh, second in four Group Ones last season, twice behind Frankel, makes his eagerly-awaited reappearance in a race his trainer has won four times.
Roger Charlton's Cityscape avoided Frankel last season as he was in the same Khalid Abdullah ownership but he suffered his own near-misses behind Excelebration.
This year he is likely to stay at home rather than travelling around Europe.
John Gosden supplemented Fencing after an impressive display at Ascot on his first run as a gelding.
Beauty Parlour is an intriguing runner for Sir Henry Cecil.
Last year's French 1000 Guineas winner and Oaks runner-up has only had one prior run for Cecil when she disappointed in the Sun Chariot Stakes.
Roger Varian has always highly rated Aljamaaheer but so far he was been found wanting when upped in class.
Richard Hannon won the race in 2010 and 2011 with Paco Boy and Canford Cliffs respectively but his representative this year, Trumpet Major, will need a career-best here.
Hannon also runs Libranno, the mount of Kieren Fallon.
Connections of David O'Meara's Penitent, last seen in Hong Kong at Sha Tin, will be hoping for rain.
Chil The Kite, Sovereign Debt and German raider Amaron complete the field.

Wednesday, 15 May 2013

York - Musidora


"Today we take a look at YORK as it holds the famous MUSIDORA STAKES which is a listed event and a good OAKS trial and a race which has been won by some very useful sorts in the past and this is just one race from a good looking card at the start of this mini York Festival as over the next three days we will see a few quality group / Listed events and trials unfold with some very good beasts on show".
The standard advice for betting and following these races is based around the assumption that you have a £2k Bank but as you may all well be punting with differing levels i will offer no actual stake representation only a core bet advice which can then be followed at your own pace , also i must add that aside from the actual advice given for these race cards quite a few members have previously just Dutched ( backing more than selection in a single race ) the selections for a good through the card profit , obviously i can only offer one core bet advice and that is the sole bet i would do at the time of press , i would however urge you to check the markets beforehand if possible and alter as required , also we will soon be having a " Live Chat " system in play and you can talk to me directly for upto the minute advice and betting options.
The bet advice given is a guide only.

So without further ado lets crack on with glorious ( albeit a bit cold ) York........


RACE 1 - Ground is Gd/soft ( Gd in places ) 
WIN - FIRST MOHICAN - 1st @ 4.20

SUMMARY - We start off with a open enough looking 1m2f Hcap that holds a mixture of class and arse and with the ground changing ( more so overnight ) the better handicapped but under achieving sorts may come to the fore.
First one to mention is FIRST MOHICAN a horse from the Cecil stable that won its first 3 starts in effortless style and looked group class in doing so however all the wins were on soft or worse and then when tried on firmer ground failed miserably leaving you to believe that this is a very much ground dependent horse, if  ( which i dont think it will ) the ground stays firm leave this alone today ( may win but highly improbable ) if however the showers continue to pour down then i think this becomes a very good bet at the current 6.60.
Next up is Clayton a big Peintre Celebre Gelding that does owe  ( me at least ) us a win after being told by the owner ( Guy Reed ) that he thinks the world of this and it is one his best i followed it off a cliff last season and continually frustrated even getting beat at 1.41 ( generally trades lower as its a good mover ) and i will no doubt be chucking a few more shillings into this ( may have it in a cheeky double though as im not expectant anymore ) .
Lahaag needs to bounce back from a bitterly disappointing run in the Lincoln tho' this is not inconceivable this is one to watch only as that was an effort of nothingness.
York itself is also a course where the phrase " horses for courses " is quite apt and is a play ground for the northern trainers to mop up some black type so be wary of all their better runners and more so the well handicapped and well weighted ones.
With that it may pay to watch out for Itlaaq from MW Easterby a trainer that does very good here being a local as such and this might try to run the legs off a few  ( won between 1m - 2m ) and might be a steady EW @ 16.0.
The other two ( inc First Mohican ) i really like both arrive from the in form Fahey stable and they are BRIDLE BELLE & EASTERN DESTINY with a stronger vote of confidence going to Bridal Belle a five time winner who has won over the CD and has won on Good / Good Soft and Soft so any ground type tmrw will be fine, looks Stable first string and ticks all my boxes.

BET ADVICE - " IF " the ground comes up a bit softer then i will be side with First Mohican if the ground remains on the fast side of good then i shall go with an EW on Bridal Belle @ 16.5 ( or better ) .**Lumped Mohican on the Ground being softer.

EW - NOCTURN - 2nd @ 5.15

SUMMARY  - Now we have an incredibly tough 18 runner 6f sprint and a race that requires the use of my magic pin.
Last month's Warwick winner Prodigality came up short in this grade again last time but York Glory is perfectly at home at this level. The latter scored at Pontefract last month with Singeur back in fifth. Nocturn is on the up but facing his most difficult task to date having landed a recent double at Windsor. TAROOQ makes more appeal as he notched up five straight wins on the all-weather last winter and can race off a 10lb lower mark back on this surface. Stuart Williams' charge is preferred to Mississippi and Farlow, though the latter's stablemate El Viento has a shout and Louis The Pious could also get involved. Secret Witness won this last year but is 9lb higher today.

BET ADVICE - A tough race in all honesty and no real bet can be advised here as any punt must surely be taken as a fun if not speculative gamble , gun to my head i would say EW on Louis the Pious.

EW - LIBER NAUTICUS - 1st @ 1.72 ( Traded in running at 4.7 )
LONG - N/A - 

SUMMARY  - Now we have a small and tbh a disappointing field for the Musidora Stakes a Class 1  ( Group 3 ) over 1m2f for the Fillies.
You can easily make a case for any of the 6 runners but i will be focusing all my attentions on the two once raced fillies that both figure in the Oaks Betting, both won fto and both are open to any amount of improvement  ( or disappointment )  as the others already look exposed to a degree, the 2 in question are WOODLAND ARIA & LIBER NAUTICUS.

BET ADVICE - Liber Nauticus went off as a 11/4F for its maiden and duly obliged and is now currently the 1.74 Fav for this which imo is ludicrously low , yes it may well win but this is one race where you have to simply take it on and LAY the Fav , it is simply far too short for a race where so many are closely matched and the Fav is all about " what ifs " yes it may well win by 10L but you simply have to LAY this Liber Nauticus and if it does win , wipe your chin and move on.
**This is a strange bet / LAY as i do think that it will win however the price is so wrong and so short that i simply have to take it on.


LONG - SOCIETY ROCK - 1st @ 12.70

SUMMARY - Another ridiculous 18 runner sprint Hcap and another in which finding the winner could prove almost impossible.
TICKLED PINK has clearly made massive strides over the winter as she made all to win the Group 3 Abernant Stakes at Newmarket on her return. She beat Jimmy Styles by two lengths with several more of today's opposition further behind and is just preferred to another progressive filly in Mince. The latter signed off with victory in a Group 3 sprint at Ascot last term and is entered in the top sprints later this season but might just need this. Ladies Are Forever also arrives in fine form having won a couple of Listed sprints on the Polytrack recently while Maarek looked to have an easier opportunity at Longchamp last Sunday but turns up here instead. Last year's winner Tiddliwinks beat The Cheka, Society Rock and Bogart in that order and any one of that quartet could figure along with the high-class Irish raider Gordon Lord Byron.
Imho it may well pay to follow the 5 true group / Class performers and they are ( in no order ) ,

3. GORDON LORD BYRON - 3rd @ 8.09
4. SOCIETY ROCK - 1st @ 12.70
5. MINCE - 

With a slight preference for the latter named MINCE a horse i followed all last season and is a true group / Class 1 Sprinter and can race on or off the pace , on most ground types and has collected some very quick times and fractions and if fully wound up will take all the beating however any of the 5 named could be up there.

BET ADVICE - Dutch on Mince / Ticked Pink / Society Rock


SUMMARY -  Now its a bog standard but huge field Hcap over 1m4f which is pretty standard for York.
Northside Prince is usually thereabouts in this grade without being quite good enough and it could prove a similar story today. Marcus Tregoning is looking for a double in this after training last year's winner and OPERA BOX has leading claims. She just failed to catch the useful Boonga Roogeta at Doncaster last time and today's longer trip will suit. Guising is also unexposed but up 5lb for his recent win at Windsor while Novirak is another to consider dropping down a grade after a good effort at Epsom. High Office and Cousin Khee should go well and Cockney Sparrow has been in fine form over hurdles of late so is probably the pick of the remainder.

BET ADVICE - No bet again im afraid , you will go poor trying to make a living betting in these, these are for fun only - Northside Prince EW...but its more than a leap of faith required here.


SUMMARY  - This is much better and far more manageable as we have a steady 8 runner stakes race which does have a very competitive feel to it.
Its 5f , its for 2 yr olds and all bar the debutante have won fto or won...this is gonna be down to the speed ratings and then whoever improves the most as they will all improve some tho will come on a ton and others will either regress or only show a slight improvement.
Firstly the two quickest by some way are ONE BOY & INNOCENTLY and at their prices ( two outsiders ) i feel it foolish to even look elsewhere as this is easily the value play here even if they dont win its still the bet option.

BET ADVICE - Equal Stakes Dutch on ONE BOY & INNOCENTLY  ( currently 10.5 & 12.0 )

**Went against the Favs here as i thought it would be a fair bit more competitive than it turned out to be, Favs led the 1,2 and 3...and it fecked me Placepot...little bit gutted tbh.


SUMMARY  - And rather predictably we have a big 17 runner 7f Hcap to round the day off and not one to be going in large as a 2 getting out " stakes race.
Richard Fahey has trained three of the previous five winners and today's representatives all have a chance. Fantacise has tumbled down the weights and Right Touch scored on his handicap debut at Redcar last month. Khelman won his maiden by four lengths at Yarmouth recently and makes most appeal of his yard's runners but a chance is taken on MUNDAHESH. He landed the odds at Wolverhampton in October with the minimum of fuss and is taken to make a winning return. Line Of Reason has claims stepping back up in trip while Steelriver, George Rooke and Unknown Villain all ended last season with maiden victories and are others to note.

BET ADVICE - Another race in which i can offer no real pro bet only a " fun punt " as this is not a race for making money on ~ Mundahesh EW if i really had to.

**A fascinating day and some intriguing races although they are not generally punter friendly , this is not a day to go over board on.

TODAY'S BEST BET IS...The LAY on LIBER NAUTICUS - 1st @ 1.72 ( Traded at 4.7 in running )

Todays EW Doubles : ( York - Mince / One Boy ) : Another EW DOUBLE will be posted tmrw if it reaches the required standard to merit a bet , the Advised York EW double is speculative at best and shouldnt be used a serious bet.


Place Pot :

1. 1 , 10 & 13 - 1 & 13 ( 2 lines )
2. 2 , 6 & 12 - 1 Line ( Non Runner pushes stake onto Fav - 2nd ) - ( 1 line )
3. 4 & 6 - 4 ( 1 Line )
4. 1,2,3 16 & 17 - 1 & 2 ( 2 Lines - 4 Lines in Total )
5. 1 , 4 & 6 - 1 ( 1 Line )
6. 5 & 6 - Out in the Finale..Ouch ;(

Stake @ £0.20 ( 540 lines ) = £108.00
Placepot Paid £305.20
Return : £

**Placepot layout is larger than normal today but will pay very big if hit.

**Heres a quick note from our long shooting, long punting, glory hunter and double figure lucker....Value Vader....

Views from the DARKSIDE ( Value Vader ).....

Back Jack to reign at York

  • By: Value Vader
Jack Dexter: Worth a bet at 20/1
Jack Dexter: Worth a bet at 20/1

If the forecast 5-10mm falls on the Knavesmire we could be looking at a very different  
market for the Duke Of York Stakes as the money is bound to come for those who 
excel with cut in the turf.Rain is forecast at York ahead of day one of the Dante meeting but the question is how much and will it have a significant effect on the ground?
The money has already come in for Maarek who is 6/1 from 10s after sustained support on Tuesday and the talented son of Pivotal has an obvious chance if the rain arrives.
However, we've missed the boat as far as he's concerned and instead I'm interested in the 20/1 plenty of layers are offering about Jim Goldie's .
This son of Orientor is a very progressive four-year-old and is only a big price for this Group 2 contest because he was well beaten in handicap company last time.
However, it was a hot handicap at Doncaster that's working out very well and he was carrying a big weight on ground that wouldn't play to his strengths.
On his previous start he won the Cammidge Trophy, a shade cosily I thought, from another proven mudlark in Captain Ramius and on that form he must have a chance should significant rain arrive on the Knavesmire.
There is pace around him with Bogart and Tickled Pink drawn close by and he should get a good tow into the race from that duo, with middle to low numbers usually the place to be when the ground rides soft at York.
Unbeaten in six starts when the ground rides soft or worse, really significant rain 
would increase confidence in the selection. But even if the precipitation only gets into the ground a little, Jack Dexter looks worth chancing at big prices to prove his last run all wrong.
Earlier on the card looks the one to be on in the Infinity Ecosis Tyres Handicap at 9/1.
He almost scored on his first start for David O'Meara following the move from Kevin Ryan's at York last October, but Regal Parade stole the Coral Sprint Trophy 
(a stronger race than this) from him with a late thrust.
Stepped up to seven at Doncaster on his next start, he led his group with a furlong to go but weakened into 10th late on.
Still, that showed he'll be competitive off a mark of 100 this season and he's gone well fresh before so it's not a concern this is his seasonal reappearance.
With conditions looking like they'll be ideal he looks bound to be in the mix and 9/1 looks fair.
Selections: 1pt e.w Jack Dexter in 3.15 York at 20/1, 1pt win Louis The Pious in 2.15 York at 9/1.


Copy Halt