Saturday, 4 May 2013

Guineas Weekend


Yes the Flat season is now officially here as we go into the first of the big Classic Weekends as between now and Nov every week or weekend should see something a bit special and this is a brilliant way to start and i know this Classic has its knockers but its a series of races steeped in history and do deservedly have the right to the tag " Classic " , the dual Guineas meeting is a wonderful pointer to the rest of the season and that alone gives it a feel of not much more than a Trial for the seasons potentially richer races but this carries enough black type to get any bloodstock agent into a lather.

Now one the reasons i love HQ ( Newmarket ) is that unless its a huge field that is split both sides of the track then this course usually plays to ability and not luck in running as a lot travel thru the middle and it simply allows the best horse to win , you can get the splits, you make your own breaks and if your beast is good enough it will win and only a royally stupid douche bag will get " caught in a pocket " or checked for a run....this is also a track that allows horses of all running types to make a play , from the front, off the pace, late rattle, midfield stalkers..the lot, they can all take a hand here and it makes it fascinating.



So with this we will have a full celebration Card to mark the occasion and hopefully we can get a few winners to make the day even better.
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                                                     NEWMARKET



RACE 1
WIN - BOONGA ROOGETA - 1st @ 12.10
EW - WHISPERING WARRIOR -
LONG - LICENCE TO TILL -
*

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - A nice steady 9f Hcap to get the day underway and not one that is top heavy on class with a few yet to run this term and a lot out of sorts or have been plying their trade on the AW but one does stand out here and for me that is BOONGA ROOGETA who landed a 10f event lto ( and the time before ) in great fashion making all and staying on very well and at the 9f pole was a good 4L clear and this trip will be just perfect coupled with the fact this likes the ground and because this is ( by class only and not strength in depth ) a higher graded race he actually carries some 7lb less and the young Jockey Rosie Jessop ( claiming an additional 5lb ) has ridden this 5 times and won the last 4 times they have been together so everything points to a leading run.

BET ADVICE : £100 W/P ON BOONGA ROOGETA @ BFSP
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RESULT - 
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RACE 2

WIN - SOLE POWER - 1ST @ 4.90
EW - SPIRIT QUARTZ -
LONG - DOC HAY -
*

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - Now we step it up with a good looking Class 1 5f super dash and there will be no tactics in this for me it will be quite simply point and shoot.
I think we should narrow this field down to the quickest 5 ( on my ratings and imo ) and they are , 
1. SOLE POWER - 1ST @ 4.90
2. PEARL SECRET - NON RUNNER
3.SPIRIT QUARTZ
4.DOC HAY
5.KINGSGATE NATIVE - 2ND @ 41.40

Now from this quintet SOLE POWER is probably the best out n out sprinter but is prone to throwing the odd race away but if he is on song and ready to rumble then it will be the one to beat
Kingsgate Native is a proper old rogue and for the last 4 years has been touted as " the next great sprinter " , " the new wonder horse " and even more ludicrously the " next Dayjur "....all of it way off the mark, however the horse does have a good deal of ability but very rarely ever decides to put it all in , his speed figures will tell you he can race with the best of them but then will start to daydream ( or whatever it is they do ) , this is what i would term as a " housewifes bet " the sort that can go off at double figure odds and scoot in if its a rare going day and reward the brave or the stupid.
Doc Hay is a consistent sort Flipping between Hcaps , Listed events  and generally never races below Group 2 with the main being Group 1's , he will by and large run more or less the same every race and is capable of taking down a big race although i feel that a race as hot as this may be just beyond him but with the red hot o'Meara team firing in winners all over anything is possible!!.
Then we have the Qatar Racing Pair and both are closely matched although i think Spirit Quartz is possibly just a shade faster and has fitness and form in its favour and it won lto in a very quick time and i am sure this will be bang there at the finish.

BET ADVICE : Tough to call but a £100 FAP on SPIRIT QUARTZ for me , but a low confidence race.
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RESULT - 
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RACE 3

WIN - NOBLE MISSION -
EW - DANDINO - 2nd @ 3.85
LONG - N/A -
*

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - This is tougher a small 4 runner field for the Jockey Club Stakes and although i feel that 1m4f stretches NOBLE MISSION'S stamina to the max i do feel the pace in this will suit him and allow him to get home , over 1m2f he would kill these on current form and i feel he can just about do enough to get home here....if he doesnt then i will not be touching him again at anything over 1m2f...last chance saloon for NM.

BET ADVICE : Straight forward £100 WIN on NOBLE MISSION @ BFSP ( * And as advised Place Lay for £150 )
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RESULT - 
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RACE 4

Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (205th Running) (British Champions Series) (Group 1)


WIN - TORONADO -
EW - DAWN APPROACH - 1st @ 2.44
LONG - GARSWOOD -
*

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - Now for the day's Big Race the 2000 Guineas and this holds a few very interesting runners not least last years unbeaten New Approach colt DAWN APPROACH and this is the current fav and deservedly so on last years form and unless there is something wrong with him i cant see how this doesnt make the frame.
Personally i was utterly impressed with TORONADO'S win in the Craven it moves and eats ground up like the impossibly brilliant Frankel and i was very impressed with how easily it moved through the race and quickened when asked and it was all done so easy , now i dont expect things to be quite so straight forward this time but i do feel we could witness something a bit special today here and is my selection in the race.
Aside from the obvious contenders you also have the enigmatic Moth , The JP ridden Cristofo Columbo , Moojahim and the impressive looking Garswood and any of these could prove upto getting involved in the finish , personally i would like to see Garswood put them all to the sword and at least hold on for a Place

BET ADVICE : £125 WIN on TORONADO & £75 saver on Dawn Approach both @ BFSP.
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RESULT - 
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RACE 5

WIN - BRAZEN - 2nd @ 11.5
EW - SHARDAROBA -
LONG - AGERZAM -
*

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) -  Now we have an almost impossible riddle to solve in this big field 3 yr old Sprint Hcap and on my personal ratings bar one or two you could throw a blanket over the whole field as the Hcapper seems to have this about spot on , However...the one blot i have found is BRAZEN  who does lack a recent run but that is not normally a problem for this trainer and this colt by Kyllachy has clocked the quickest ~time and is currently double figures so has to be worth a go EW.
BET ADVICE : £100 W/P on BRAZEN in a tough looking race.
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RESULT -
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RACE 6

WIN - WINDHOEK - 1st @ 1.89
EW - CENTAURIUS -
LONG - N/A -
*

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) - Now we have a puzzling small field affair for 3yr olds over 1m2f with all looking to have a chance of sorts and all having something to prove however WINDHOEK looks to be the one in this , ran green as grass lto and was reportedly unfit yet still managed to win comfortably enough even with him hanging his head all the way thru which seems a trait , this is entered into the Dante and should be a touch to classy for these.
BET ADVICE : Straight £100 Win on WINDHOEK @ bfsp.
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RESULT - 
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RACE 7

WIN - AYAAR -
EW - RED AVENGER - 2nd @ 10.00
LONG - GLEAN - 1st @ 4.76
*

SUMMARY ( BET ADVICE ) -  And we round the day off with a similar race to the last , hard to call , tough to fathom and a bit of guessing required but AYAAR went off at 10/1 and was reasonably well supported in the Free Hcap when behind Garswood ( runs earlier in the Guineas ) and with that run under the belt this could come out on top today in a muddling race.

BET ADVICE :  £100 Win on AYAAR - 
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RESULT - 
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TODAY'S BEST BET IS...
1. Toranado / Dawn Approach Dutch  - Win
2. Windhoek / Noble Mission EW Double -  1st / Unplaced = Lost
3. Brazen EW single - 2nd @ 11.5 - Win
4. Brazen / Spirit Quartz / Boonga Roogeta - EW Patent - 2nd @ 11.5 / Unplaced / 1st @ 12.10 = Win

Todays PRO BET is....
1. Toranado / Dawn Approach Dutch - Unplaced / 1st = Win
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Placepot is down @ £0.30 Stakes - Landed ( £337.10 ) - WIN

FULL Spread Multi is down with 4 Folds / 5 Folds and 1 x Acca - 5 WINNERS from 7 Races means i have hit 1 x 5 fold and  5 x 4 Folds for some super Boomage ;) - WIN


Todays MAX LAY is ROBOT BOY Newmarket 1625 @ 6.2 - BFSP 11.6  ( EASY TRADE ) - Unplaced - Win

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Have a great day , enjoy some quality racing and hopefully we can grab a winner or three ;)..ttfn x

***FAB Fab Day ;)

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