Saturday, 18 May 2013

A few Hours to Kill....

Whilst i wait and pack i have a few hours spare today so i have rummaged through the days cards looking at a few possible bets to stick on for some afternoon fun n games and tbh there is a plethora of interesting runners today and some very decent runners , here are a few i like....



NEWBURY

1. RETIREMENT PLAN ( 10.5 ) - EW DUTCH - UNPLACED
First Foal of the excellent Group 1 winning Passage of time  and by Monsun and this is a very exciting colt at a nice price for its debut thanks to Hannon running a couple and making the market short , obv we have no real idea of ability at this stage but i will be happy having a punt at 10.5 and i will be dutching this with SASKATCHEWAN ( 13.5 ) from the Cumani stable as im following all the Wildenstein runners.

RESULT : Heart ruled my head and i paid the price as my Stats Pack told me to back Remote ( 1st @ 28.10 ) but i ignored my own stats and went with my bloodlines and Wildenstein...Saskatchewan ran well until tiring 1f out and backing out quickly and Retirement Plan was never put into the race.

2. NO BET -
Although i would say Gallipot is the most interesting runner here but this is a low value race.

RESULT : Willing Foe routed these and at 6 beating a sorry lot and frankly this form isnt worth a shit tbh , Gallipot was garbage.

3. NO BET -
If Khawatim can transfer its AW form onto turf then this must go close but not a race to punt heavily on.

RESULT : Ran ok for 4f then flat lined , didnt seem to act well at all.

4. HILLSTAR ( 2.02 ) WIN - 2nd @ 10/11
This is going to take some beating today as it holds on recent runs both Salutation and High Troja and all bar two look below this level , the two that could cause a surprise are Kitten on the Run from Cumani this is a Italian Listed winner and unbeaten and could be anything and we have the Derby hopeful Tarikhi who is another that is unexposed and open to any amount of improvement however Hillsatr has both fitness and form in the book and is a strong bet today.

5. JLT LOCKINGE STAKES - CITYSCAPE ( 6.2 ) - EW -
Declaration of War could be a wonder horse , the betting suggests it is as its been hammered all week , the owner Michael Tabor is flying over from Ireland just to watch the race and all the noise coming from Coolmore would suggest this is winning however on what it has actually acheived , on the races it run and won  and on all known form this has a lot of improvement to find to get in the mix here as its easy lto win wont even be good enough to place here and at the cramped odds i am not taking it on but swerving it but my own general feeling is that it wont be winning.
FARHH  ( 1st @ 4.89 ) is obviously very interesting and is not without ability but i personally feel it needs further and may get out paced here but could stay on strong for a place ( FAP ) .
And lastly we have the enigmatic , odd moving , awkward travelling Beauty Parlour a odd sort that moves her feet in a very quick fashion and is something usually associated with Fast Ground and dirt types as they like to bounce over the surface and if the ground stays on the firm side of good she may be ok but HRAC is the master when it comes to dealing with fillies and now hes had some with her we can expect a completely different run from the lto effort and i will be having a few pounds on this along with Cityscape.

PRO BET ADVICE  : Cityscape ( Place only @ 2.02 ) - Unplaced - Ran no race at all, looked unfit and flat and the whip was out fully 2f out - Jury is now out - v disappointing

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6. QUINTET ( 8.2 ) EW - Unplaced , Did nothing , Looked poor in the paddock.
A good looking maiden with several top yards showing up but its Quintet i turn to hear as Beckett / Crowley have won 3 of the last 5 renewals for this and i have a feeling they have saved something good for this.
Gregori , Shamal and Plover could all run well with Gregori the most interesting of that Trio.

7. YOUR THE BOSS ( 5.2 + ) EW - Garbage - LoL ;)
If you find a maiden where a horse with form rated at 80+ is involved then get on as it would take a mammoth first run for any horse to run to 85 , not that its not possible but just highly unlikely , a really good fto winning run will only produce a provisional rating of around 76-78 and then with experience the rating gets fully formed to allow for fluke or luck , Your the Boss has a few runs under its belt now and has shown some decent form and never really beaten by much more than a length this should have the street smarts to win here although its doubtful if she will remain the best of these in 6 months time.

8. NO BET -

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NEWMARKET

1. NO BET -
Robert the Painter has come down a long way in the weights and is running for a very in form combo , this would probs be my EW selection. - Did Nothing , soon hit 1000 in running - 

2. NO BET -
If the ground was soft or on the soft side of good i would be all over BIOGRAPHER EW but without knowing how it will act on this firmer surface its a swerve as a case can be made for at least 6 of these with Tiger Cliff also looking like a top rated potential improver. - Tiger Cliff Wins @ 6.02 -

3. NO BET -
Another trappy race but i do like PURCELL if it can learn to settle and keep calm through its races and use the energy towards a finishing kick i think this can be top class but has been racing on and off so far , would be a speculative choice only. - Ran well but was chopped for room in final 1f , unplaced in 6th but only a couple of lengths away.

4. DUNDONNELL - WIN - NAP - 1st @ 3.0
 @ 3.45 or higher this looks an outstanding bet and if you can attain EW value then lump on , couldnt live with Toronado lto but that is a serious grp 1 horse and his form without that look plenty good enough , a 4th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf , a Narrow defeat ( again to Toronado ) in the Champagne Stakes and a good win in the Acomb Stakes leaves this well clear imo and i will be surprised if he cannot rout these.

PRO BET : DUNDONNELL - WIN - 1st @ 3.0

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5. NO BET -
Wide Open , no real opinion on this.

6. DAWN OF EMPIRE - EW @ 7.4 + - 2nd @ 8.24
A low quality maiden that holds the 82 rated Quadriga as top rated but is without a run this term so is overlooked and im going to have an EW on the well bred Charlton newcomer.

7. SONG AND DANCE MAN EW @ 8.2 + - Unplaced
Another maiden but far superior in quality and one with an odds on Fav ( always worth laying maidens like this ) and i will be doing just that but i will also be having a go on this gelding by Danehill Dancer as i have had a note for it and is quite well thought of.

8. NO BET -
Persipolis at a push but is wide open and not one to get involved in.

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And that will do now as i must get on haha..ttfn x.....

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