Tuesday, 28 May 2013

Afternoon All..

I always find it hard coming back after a break , tough to get the rhythm going and picking up the hot n cold lists  and my mind was very much still in Holiday mode yesterday as i ambled my way thru the cards missing good spots and hitting some bad ones but thankfully i managed to come out alive and in profit which is key to all my endeavors.
Back working on the new website again today with some minor tweaks coming up as i will be focusing mainly on PPL and the Group meeting race cards as i got off to a patchy start with slow updates , mis-information and poor re-telling of advice which was compounded by me then more or less instantly taking a week off , not the best timing in the world but hey ho the long term members are with me so all is good.

We have another fairly steady day's racing today but there is enough to get into with some nice looking races and a few nice sorts jogging about although with out doubt for me its the evening cards that hold all the aces with some good early evening action on offer.

Today's Blog will focus on 1 meeting and looking at backing or laying the Favorite from each race with LEICESTER being the card of choice.

5.1 The field with a 101% book tells us the first part of this story....this is wide open and with the current market in this shape GENERALYSE is a Big STAT LAY ( check PUK legend for info on Stat Lays ) so i will be laying this as i feel there is plenty enough against it , Bussa is worth considering as an EW punt.


Another tight affair with a slightly bigger book at 102% but no stat lay as Abanoas makes a mess of the field even with no chance it still ruins a good book and another stat race so lets just take a look at the current Fav which is PLUNDER a very well bred sort that sluiced up making all to win its maiden on the AW at the first attempt however they put it up to 1m next time out and it didnt quite last the trip out and capitulated in the final 1f eventually running 4th of just 5 ( only beaten 5L ) and in same grade they then sent this back to Kempton AW for its 3rd run and this time with a rather higher than expected rating of 79 for a Hcap over 7f ( same as CD win ) and again they tried to make all but got swamped in the final 1 and 1/2 Furlongs in a better grade race that was run and won in a time nearly 3 seconds faster than its CD maiden win suggesting these were just a wee bit too good although improvement was expected but not forthcoming.
Finally on its last run the sent it to race at Naas over 6f on Turf for the first time and it got absolutely steam rolled coming home 17/18 and was never in with a chance after being heavily outpaced early on.
It is my opinion that this horse is not improving and if anything has actually regressed and i would only rate it around 64 as it has done nothing since its debut win although that said this is now racing back over its ideal trip ( based on gathered evidence ) and is racing in a grade 6 bargain bin affair lacking any real quality but would i take the 5.2 on Plunder...Not a chance , so its a LAY then but this is one of those that is a bit too close for comfort , i will be crossing my fingers in this one.

RESULT : UNPLACED = WIN ( Easily Beaten )

PYTHAGOREAN looks to have an outstanding chance today and even at cramped odds ( 1.84 ) i think this should win , a superb victory over CD lto ( won by an eased down 5L ) gives the rest plenty to do and a repeat of that run alone will suffice here , there is some competition but not enough to get me off this fav.

RESULT : 1st @ 1.97 = WIN

BURNHAM comes in at 3.5 and on a book of just over 101% and with the rag at under 31.0 this is another STAT LAY.
This looks and feels like the market suggests...wide open and with plenty to fight against the Fav is another auto lay the fav race.

RESULT : 2nd @ 2.81 ( Just beaten in a Photy > traded as 1.21 Fav in the Photy Market ) = WIN

KAIULANI comes in at 3.95 and with the field price running at its current levels this is almost a stat race but not quite as the book is uneven at 103+% and im expecting some upwards movement on the roughies so can we justify taking on this fav??.
An open looking maiden over 5f for 2yo with only the one runner with experience ( very poor efforts ) and only a couple i like on breeding including the fav , i also like Gold Top and Excels Beauty but having just the two running for you with such a big priced fav causes problems although technically the Fahey , Dascombe and Botti yard have runners giving you an edge but are largely unfancied which raises its own set of questions.
On the plus side you also have the Prescott runner and his early season 2yo's must be noted and respected but im still not entirely convinced a Lay is a good bet here.
At the moment im thinking a FAP on GOLD TOP is probably the bet to make but that is not what this exercise is about today, today its about the Favs......although i dont like it i think at a pinch a LAY on the Fav is probably just the right call but its another close one.

RESULT : 1st @ 3.19 ( solid but not easy ) = Loss ( Hopefully my write up put you off laying this ;) )

This is another super tough to call 2yo Maiden with the Fav being ERTIJAAL @ 3.2 ( Oasis Dream ) but i feel personally only around maybe 5 have any real chance here ( based on breeding and performance stats ) and i simply cannot lay this fav , for me the bet here is a 3 way dutch inc the fav ( any 3 from top 5 in the market ) although i cannot correctly identify the dutch to play.
The runners i like are , TOOFI , TOORMORE ( 1st @ 4.24 ) , ERTIJAAL ( 2nd @ 3.61 ) , DALAKI & BOUNTY HUNTER although @ 80.0 Dalaki is unlikely to figure so im left with 4 and this has to be a race left alone as a betting proposition , push , shove,push,shove...push.......LAY the Fav but with zero confidence.

RESULT : 2nd @ 3.61 ( Just couldnt get up but well clear of the 3rd ) = Won ( Hope you ignored my write up and Laid ..haha )

BIG THUNDER @ 3.7 from the Hcap king Prescott and this is a LAY for me , yes i know he does really well with these types but they do get over backed and quite often under perform ( albeit this is a very weak race ) there are plenty in this race that have as much potential for improvement and the Lay here is the only sensible play.

RESULT : 3rd @ 3.20 ( Easily beaten ) = Won

TAHAF in this finale looks a decent bet for me , Div of these Hcaps and this is another very weak race and Tahaf has the most solid recent form and would have been in with a squeak of winning lto if not for being hampered at a crucial stage in the run with only a couple of average looking dangers i see this making a bold bid today and should run well but 3.05 is a bit too skinny for me to be backing at , i will be looking for 4.2 ( unlikely ) or i will be just lumping the FAP.

RESULT : 5th ( Tardy start , disappointing ) = Loss


Looking at this i would say today is a good day for taking on these Favourites , good luck with whatever you do..;)
**Good Day overall , im happy with that ;).


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