Friday, 17 May 2013

Friday @ Newbury


MEETING : NEWBURY

" Well Day two of the York Trials meeting was a slight disappointment compared to Wednesday although i did win well on PARBOLD @ 4.8 as i held firm for my price ( wanted at least 4.5 ) and that kinda made my day after losing a bit on Greatwood ( Never had a chance after a poor start and pulling all the way round ) but that was my only real loss of concern as everything else either paid me out or was a non runner and of course a few from York yesterday were in deed NO BET races with advice there purely for the theatrics ( advised fun bets etc ) and i did state on the Day 1 Review that York is very much a place that can indeed be aptly labelled a " Horses for Courses " Track as some do specialize here and that was proven as both Navajo Chief and Ancient Cross both scooted up here at big prices and will no doubt do nothing all season again.
And with Day 3 looking not at all Punter Friendly i have diverted my gaze through to NEWBURY in the hope of finding more luck and winners , i have struggled a bit this week with York and its been a tough meet to profit from even more so when the conditions change dramatically and the markets dive up and down.
We do have our Facebook page live so feel free to drop in for some advice, banter or a general chat if your at home having some bets.
Also there has been some confusion as to the bet selections and placement as some shouldn't be getting Placed as advised bets and others are being left off , i can only apologize for this and will try to remedy this situation asap" .

So its off to Newbury we go and a track that is quite quirky itself but is one i do usually fare well at so lets crack on...
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RACE 1
WIN - CHAMPIONSHIP - 1st @ 4.06
EW - IFTAAR -
LONG - MAN AMONGST MEN - 2nd @ 25.90
*

SUMMARY - A tough looking maiden to start the day off with some very well bred sorts and a runner from our breeders list in IFTAAR from the in form Hills stable , this is bred for the trip , will enjoy the ground and should give a decent account.
As usual in a field made up predominantly of newcomers, the betting may give some vital clues. As it is, the speculative vote goes to CHAMPIONSHIP given Richard Hannon has a good record in this race and jockey bookings suggest he's preferred to Alaskan. Martin Harley's presence on Ambiance point to his chances ahead of stablemate Jallota and he's also preferred to the Brian Meehan pair Cabaan and Man Amongst Men. Iftaar and the 140,000 euros colt, Gm Hopkins, are both first foals and worth noting along with Berkshire, although the latter may need further to show his best " .

BET ADVICE - NO BET - Iftaar EW will be my play here but its not a race that pulls me in and i shall save my bullets for later.
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RESULT - 
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RACE 2

WIN - VALTINA -
EW - WINSILI - 1ST @ 3.20
LONG - THE LARK -
*

SUMMARY  - This is a good Oaks Trial and has been won by some very smart horses in the past and most recently by the likes of Izzi Top and Clowance so the winner should be noted from this race for future reference.
For me this will boil down to a straight fight out between WINSILI & VALTINA both of whom are expected to improve from the opening runs and its the latter that gets the overall nod as she will have fitness on her side although i dont expect there to be much in it and The Lark should should run well after dodging a few appointments to take this up.

BET ADVICE - WIN DUTCH with Winsili & Valtina. - WIN ( Winsili 1st @ 3.20 )
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RESULT - 
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RACE 3

WIN - BRIDGE THE GAP - 
EW - MATRAASH -
LONG - BERWIN - 4th ( Done at 1.30 FAP )
*OUT OF THE PLACE POT ;(

SUMMARY  - Now we have a run o the mill 1m2f Hcap which consists of mainly poor , inconsistent and untrustworthy types and this isnt a race to really get too involved with.
Brown Pete is usually thereabouts at this level without being good enough but it's hard to know what to expect from Garrisson, who posted a couple of woeful efforts either side of winning at Lingfield. Matraash scored at the same track last time and has a 9lb hike in the weights to contend with but Evergreen Forest goes unpenalised for winning an apprentices race at Warwick last week. Sinchiroka and Breakheart have been running well at Wolverhampton but the vote goes to recent Chepstow third BERWIN with Josh Baudains taking 7lb off his back today. Bridge That Gap and Bold Cross are others with a shout.

BET ADVICE - NO BET - I will be laying Matraash at 4.3 ( current price )  and looking to trade it off tmrw when i expect the price to be a good deal higher ( if not i will leave a keep bet back trade in @ 6.6 ).***Lowest Matched trade was 5.8 and 6.50 for some proper money ( £100+ ) now 14.0 @ 14:32 ( awaiting off ) ....
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RESULT - 
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RACE 4

WIN - ORIEL - 
EW - ALUTIQ - 1st @ 4.96
LONG -  N/A -
*

SUMMARY - A 2yr old Conditions race with just the 6 runners and 3 of them saddled by Hannon...ORIEL went off an Odds On Fav for its first attempt and traveled like the winner throughout but when Rizeena ( previous experience counted ) kicked on it could not match the sustained run and with that run under the belt i am expecting this to win ( well touted and hyped up pre race ).
Alutiq could be the one to cause an upset as this also returned a losing Fav lto ( last time out ) but  was a little unlucky imo and will run well again here.

BET ADVICE - WIN bet on ORIEL , saver on Alutiq. - **Saver on Alutiq brings in some profit.
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RESULT - 
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RACE 5

WIN - SOUND OF GUNS - 
EW - NINJAGO - 3rd @ 2.17
LONG - N/A -
*

SUMMARY - A 6f Listed Class 1 event for 3 yr olds and its yesterdays Non Runner we turn to today in the shape of SOUND OF GUNS which was presumably pulled as they thought the ground was soft with all that heavy rain that poured onto the Knavesmire and she is still well in here and i still think a big run is on the cards.
NINJAGO will be very hard to beat tho super consistent , travels, quickens , battles and has some good form and racing over its ideal trip this will make them all battle for a win.

BET ADVICE - Fixed Return Dutch on Sound of Guns and Ninjago.- 3rd / 4th = Loss

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RESULT - 
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RACE 6

WIN - MAGICAL KINGDOM -
EW - NICHOLAS CANYON - 2nd @ 3.8
LONG - AUTUN - 3rd @ 6.2
*

SUMMARY  - Next up is a steady 1m Hcap but its a medium field that looks packed with class  ( on paper at least ) actually some of these do look quite decent for the grade and this is a competitive race where the winner will be hard to call.
Nichols Canyon will be a popular choice stepping up in distance after a third at Sandown on his reappearance. He should go close but MAGICAL KINGDOM is marginally preferred. He could only manage third over today's distance at Kempton on his handicap bow but the modest pace will not have suited and he should prove better than that on his first start on Turf. Autun wears his owners first colours ahead of Incorporate and will likely stay the trip having won his maiden over a mile at Nottingham last season while Prairie Ranger will have come for his return at Haydock and is another to consider on his handicap debut.

BET ADVICE - MAGICAL KINGDOM - EW - Unplaced = Loss
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RESULT - 
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RACE 7

WIN - SEMEEN - 1st @ 4.60
EW - LASER BLAZER -
LONG - TENNESSEE -
*

SUMMARY  - Another Dreary Hcap to round this day off but i am quite sweet on SEMEEN here and i feel this has more scope than most and its interesting to see Hughes riding for Cumani.
Luca Cumani's runners are better for the outing more often that not, but SEMEEN is worth the risk in this company. He's only 3lb higher than when scoring at Newmarket in August and we may not have seen the best of him yet. Perfect Cracker is getting no closer despite slipping down the weights but Cashpoint is better than he showed on his return at Pontefract last month. Laser Blazer usually runs his race but remains hard to win with and the same can be said of both Tenessee and Spirit of Xaar. Ssafa, last of four at Bath on Wednesday, can race off a lower mark than when scoring on the Polytrack under Paul Hanagan last month and Grand Theft Equine may be capable of better on only his second start on Turf.

BET ADVICE - SEMEEN - EW - 1st @ 4.60 = Win
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RESULT - 
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Views from the DARKSIDE ( Value Vader ).....


Trainer Ed Dunlop is hoping the real Concise will show up when she goes for the Swettenham Stud Fillies' Trial Stakes at Newbury on Friday.

Ed Dunlop: Concise hopes
Ed Dunlop: Concise hopes

"I've run her twice on grass and she has run appallingly, both times at Newmarket," said Dunlop.
The American-bred filly has shown a decent level of form on the all-weather, but has flopped abysmally on her two runs on turf, both at her trainer's local track of Newmarket.
"She won at Kempton as a two-year-old and we went back there and she wasn't beaten far on her first run this year not fully wound up by a filly (Zurigha) who then went on to finish fourth in the French Guineas.
"It's very much a fact-finding mission for us. She did get agitated when she came off the horse-box and went straight to the racecourse so she will go early there and hopefully settle down. It's very much a case of watch and see."
The Lark, trained by Michael Bell, puts her Classic credentials on the line when she makes her seasonal reappearance in this Listed contest.
The daughter of Pivotal showed lots of promise in her two starts as a two-year-old, both in October.
After finishing fourth on her debut at Nottingham, she got off the mark over a mile at Doncaster.
"She would certainly have her chances enhanced by some more rain, but she has looked exciting in her work and we hope she will keep her Oaks chances alive with a decent effort here," the Newmarket handler told www.michaelbellracing.com.

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