Wednesday, 21 May 2014

Favourites to Take On...

Morning All ,
                       Its a quiet week as we we build up to a very busy weekend of action which will incorporate the Irish Classics so i thought i would take a look through each of the day meetings and assess the favourites from each race....Back , LAY or Leave.....

We will start off at Ayr...


RACE 1 : Jungle Cat
BFSP : 3.50
Summary : An open looking maiden and this Johnston runner is a rare one in the fact thats its an Iffraj and quite speedily bred unlike a lot of his which are generally more stoutly bred and thats a concern , this is one to just leave alone as its a toss up at the price..decent back, decent enough lay but not low enough to tempt me in and if Fanning gets a flyer and tries to make the running the trade options are low so all round this is just one to leave alone although this is a high stat lay ( PPL ) race.

RACE 2 : New Lease of Life
BFSP :8.20
Summary : Very poor looking small field sprint hcap and a big PPL race however as a stand alone LAY its too high in the betting to be taking on with any significant confidence however if this dropped to at least 3.2 come off time or before then i would get involved in a trade ( LTB ) other than that its again one to leave.

RACE 3 : Hab Reeh 
BFSP : 3.20
Summary : Div 2 of the above Hcap and this is just as tough tbh i dont know why they dont combine the two races , double the prizemoney and shorten the day......the Ruth Carr team is in fine form and standard jockey Sullivan is riding well enough to make them a formidable combo and the horse itself is in good form but the weight is an issue as its best form has been when its weighted to win at around 48-52 and the extra few pounds always seem to anchor him and at 3.35 i think this is a good TRADE , i will be looking to get out at Zero ( preferential Greening  which gives me a zero on the selection but higher return on the field ) at 4.4 for a £30 profit ( based on standard £100 Lays or part of thereafter ).

Result : 2nd
RACE 4 : Tatlisu
BFSP : 4.93
Summary : Another small field Hcap ( 7f )  and a 8.8 on the stat scale and rather precarious for punters on both codes and quite frankly i see no point in getting involved in races with so many variables , Fav too high to lay , too big to be confident about and the field is a blanket....sit this one out...

Result :  UNPLACED
RACE 5 : True Pleasure
BFSP : 3.97
Summary : Steady race and a fav that be TRADED , it has decent enough form figures however its best runs have been on the AW and its on a career high mark having been raised 9lb since its last win , this is another i will be trading out at 4.4 on.

Result : 1st ( Hit 5.2 In the Run )
RACE 6 : Funky Monkey
BFSP : 7.0
Summary : Poor stayers race and this is a def LAY but ONLY if the i can get 3.35 or better pre off otherwise i will leave a " Keep Bet " in at 3.2 & 2.80 and look to trade out at 5.6 for a decent profit.

Result : UNPLACED ( Hit a LOW of 2.94 in the Run ;-) )
RACE 7 : Imperial Legend
BFSP : 3.55
Summary : This is a Fav i like and is worth " Backing " with a LAY set at 2.46 and 1.12.

Result : UNPLACED ( Only traded at 3.0 in the run )

And now we move onto


RACE 1 : Men Dont Cry
BFSP : 3.36
Summary : This is a tough to call race , the combo of Giles and Murphy is strong although it is very weak on the stat scale ( 6.6 ) which makes me think the Fav will shorten pre off so a back bet now and trade pre off is a possibility but then the better bet would be an LTB at bfsp if it does shorten more certainly if it was to hit anything in the 2's then it would become a MAX ltb at 1 point higher , as a stand alone Lay it offers little as it looks quite strong given the paucity of opposition , trade or leave.

Result : 1st ( Hit 5.10 in the run )
RACE 2 : Pack Leader
BFSP : 2.04
Summary : This looks a very strong Fav but i have it priced at a very solid 6/4 so i am laying this at 2.08 and trading out at 2.56 , but does look the likley winner.

Result : 2nd
RACE 3 : Noguchi
CURRENT PRICE  : ( Place Market ) 1.51 & 3.0 ( Win )
BFSP : 3.55
Summary : Poor 3 runner field and a Win & Place LAY on the weakest of the three although this is a poor value bet in so many ways..for the needy and greedy only.

Result :  UNPLACED 
RACE 4 : Dovils Date
BFSP : 3.65
Summary : This looks wide open is a massive 9.6 on the PPL rankings and has " Trade " written all over it...out at 4.40 for an easy profit.

Result : 1st ( Hit 20.0 in the run ) 
Run out of time busy chatting...lets see how we get on...

Thursday, 15 May 2014

York Dante DAY 3

 This just about sums up Yesterday as the best i could manage was a 5.40 Winner , a 3.40 2nd and a 29.0 2nd in the finale.....with both the Nap and the NB both garbage there was little salvation to be taken from an otherwise glib day.....Moving onto Day 3 and the final day and for the first time my eldest son is off with 40 other comrades to do some bookie bashing so im hoping i can steer him onto a winner or three....

YORK DAY 3 >>>


WIN - TIGGY WIGGY - 2nd @ 5.29

SUMMARY : We start off the day with the MARYGATE Stakes a race for 2yr olds over 5f and this looks a good renewal, the first and most obvious place to start is with TIGGY WIGGY a cracking horse from the Hannon yard that never saw an opponent lto as it rattled an all the way win although i wouldnt say the time was that special but the ground was sticky which is another plus although the ground is now drying out rapidly but none the less has every chance but the fact that its just 3.7 in a tight race and the fact that Hughes once again has opted to ride elsewhere tempers enthusiasm , leading chance.
SARISTA however makes much more appeal as this won a hard fought 1f battle lto beating Realtra ( Won at Newmarket this evening very well over 6f ) after making almost all the running , she is also a daughter of Kodiac ( like Tiggy Wiggy ) and also likes to be up with the pace and ive a sneaky feeling she may let Tiggy blaze the pace and sit on her shoulders before making a move inside the final 1f, leading chance and at 7/1 offers considerably more value than Tiggy.
Finally i think we have to include PATIENCE ALEXANDER from the Evans yard but ridden by the rarely used Crowley ( big plus ) this rattle up a great fto win by 9L and heavily eased and with a racing style suited to coming off a fast pace this could do some damage but at 5.4 offers only marginal value.

NOTES : Nice start and a decent dutch as the prices drifted out..;-)


SUMMARY : Next up is another 1m4f Hcap for the older brigade with a medium sized field full of exposed stayers...this is a tough one to call.
The least exposed runner in the field ( not exposed yet at all in truth ) is ARAB SPRING but this has gone up 11lb since winning at Donny and is now up again in grade...could win but at 2.48 im not paying to find out ( favs have a poor record in this ) .
Shalaman 12 months ago was rated a paltry 59 now racing off 81 i feel this is a bridge too far and is easily overlooked , Itlaaq looks the sort to have been laid out for this by the Easterby clan and Gabrials Star ran very flat 2 days ago so is another over looked.
One that i really do like is AMRALAH A 4yr old Teofolio colt that could easily be group class in waiting and could be let in very lightly , this has some solid group / class 1 form in the book , is a distance winner . likes all ground types and is open to bags of improvement still ( not needed tho ) this could well be a springer and at 6/1 or better is well worth a few bob.
CHANCERY also comes here with a big big chance as the form of its last race has been franked in no uncertain terms as those behind have been placed all in hot hcaps with one winning the Chester Cup , trainer/jockey/horse all in red hot form...major player,for those of you liking an EW punt at big odds then i would suggest MEDIA HYPE.

NOTES : Got Itlaaq in the Placepot as cover. ( 3rd )

WIN - TAC DE BOISTRON ( NAP ) - 2nd @ 5.60 ( Atzeni lost that with a poor ride )
EW -

SUMMARY : Now its time for the big race the Yorkshire Cup over 1m6f and this will be an easy summary for me.....TAC DE BOISTRON.....i just love this beast , one of the most improved stayers worldwide and is as classy as they come, travels supremely well, quickens and then slowly dismantles fields crushing the opponents in his wake....Not unbeatable but i will not hear a bad word for this Super Grey NAP.
If he decides its not his day then any number of runners look capable of winning, with the leading alternatives being Seal of Approval , Tiger Cliff or Camborne.....but in truth if there is a better stayer currently in training its not on my radar...


WIN - RADIATOR - 2nd @ 6.40

SUMMARY : Now we have the Micheal Seeley Stakes for 3 yr olds over 1m and this looks a good race with at least half a dozen having leading claims , Radiator has leading claims if  she has wintered well but over this trip on her seasonal debut she has plenty of questions to answer and is worth taking on.
Against her we have a host of big priced runners that are worth a few EW pennies , notably NIRVA for Crowley , Adhwaa and Dutch Romance but one that i like is PELERIN who has improved for each run and is still on that upward curve and could easily get into the mix against some of  her more vaunted rivals.


EW - SCARBOROUGH - 4th @ 34.0 ( placed )

SUMMARY : Now we have a 20 runner sprint Hcap....time to get that magic Pin out....
This looks a very competitive sprint handicap as plenty arrive in form and several are open to further progress. G Force and the once-raced Dinneratmidnight are bracketed among the latter while One Boy, Skye's The Limit, Orient Class, Speed Hawk and Scarborough come here off the back of victories. Canyari showed plenty of speed over 6f at Leicester so should be suited by a drop in distance while Kickboxer was second last week at Chester. Bryan Smart won this last year with a progressive sort but Hamilton third Meadway doesn't appear to have the same scope. PIAZON is only a tentative selection as he has more to do than when scoring at Yarmouth but Louis Steward is excellent value for his 5lb claim and Michael Bell's gelding can reverse last month's Nottingham form with Signore Piccolo as he was slowly away that day. Outer Space is eased in grade but has to concede weight all round.


WIN - DUSKY QUEEN ( NB ) - 1st @ 4.19

SUMMARY : Nice looking Fillies Hcap now and a decent sized field for punting , TIGHT FIT will be a warm order here and looks the form choice but looks can be deceiving as most of its form has been gained in poor or below average races of a much lower quality and grade and this is well worth taking on.
PATRONA CIANA hails from the in form O'meara yard and won well lto over this trip although that was off 73 so has a bit to find , Alices Dancer is another lto winner but that was gained after she slipped over 10lb down the weights and wil find this a lot tougher back up in grade , BROUGHTONS CHARM has a lot stronger form chance and a repeat of her lto 3rd would be good enough for her to place , for me i think the winner could well be DUSKY QUEEN a horse that has run mostly at this or a higher level and has put in some good efforts and with Ryan Moore riding for Fahey i think they mean business.....big big chance today with race conditions in her favour.


WIN - LATIN CHARM - 3rd @ 3.91
EW - ADVENTURE SEEKER - 1st @ 16.46

SUMMARY : To finish the card and your sanity off we have a 16 1m4f Hcap....Good Luck...
Another impossible-looking handicap to end the meeting. Mairise started favourite on his reappearance at Yarmouth but only managed fourth. Votary never got anywhere near when behind Latin Charm at Doncaster last time but the step up in distance might suit whereas stamina could be an issue for Belfilo. Innocent Touch also step up in distance after scoring at Redcar while the Johnston pair Rookery and Stout Cortez are proving expensive to follow. ADVENTURE SEEKER can reverse Beverley running with Innocent Touch on better terms and should give supporters a run for their money as he's bred to stay this trip. Rite To Reign was a huge price when third at Leicester but wasn't beaten far and could also figure if that wasn't a fluke but Nottingham winner Penhill will need to improve again.

_______________________________________Good'll need it.

The Day ended wonderfully ;-)))

Wednesday, 14 May 2014

York Dante DAY 2

Well Evening All ,
                           I hope everyone enjoyed DAY 1....i know i certainly did as the days two biggest bets come good for some tasty profit with the EW NAP Regardez coming 3rd @ 8.80 and my big fancy for the sprint MAAREK winning @ 16.10 there were obviously a few disappointments along the way but only in the races with limited financial involvement so overall i am a happy chappy , moving into Day 2 and this looks a toughie...although i will be rather surprised if my NAP fails me...if that wins then the day is good..if not then i gotta hope i hit in some of the others....


YORK  >>> DAY 2 <<<



SUMMARY - Thankfully this is only one of two crazy Hcaps today unfortunately the other is the " Getting out Stakes " so lets hope we are in a good spot at that time....
So to start the day its a 20 runner 5f Dash...for 4yr olds +....this will require an awful lot of luck in getting right or the horse will have to be group class in waiting and your a shrewdie that knows it....unlikely as most if not all will be rather exposed.
Desert Law does have a bit of class but even for a sprinter its super inconsistent and its spent a while chasing rainbows in Meydan so who knows what to expect ?...but on back form it has every chance but the ground is a concern on the plus side Fallon is riding so if its ready to go and in the mood he will give it every chance.
..Ancient Cross loves it at York ( Won this race Twice ) and usually saves his best runs for the venue however he is progressing in his years and will have to really pull out all the stops here , not completely ruled out but i would be wanting at least 50/1 to get involved not the shitty looking 22/1..
JUDGE N JURY is another CD Winner ( this race in 2012 and only beaten 3/4L & a Neck in 3rd last year) and although his form figures make grim reading you can Gtee he will have been primed by his astute trainer for a strong tilt at this and i feel on the balance of form it has a very strong chance indeed.Finally i think we should include Normal Equilibrium who arrives in peak form , is fit and has good experience of the track and these type of races having been placed twice at York in big field Hcaps and if any of the usual suspects fails this could sneak in.

NOTES : Another crushing start..fuck these big Hcaps...;-P


WIN - SECRET GESTURE - 2nd @ 5.20
EW - AMBIVALENT - 1st @ 5.41

SUMMARY - Next up we have a modest renewal of the Group 2 Middleton Stakes over 1m2f for 4 yr olds +  with 9 runners and most looking to have a good chance this is a tricky race , on the balance of form available only a couple stand out but on back form there are around 6 or 7...AMBIVALENT comes into the reckoning as this has been lightly raced since winning the Pretty Polly stakes and with a couple of spins over at Meydan through the winter this should be cherry ripe for this , will need to improve slightly but is still open to improvement and must have a big chance.
SECRET GESTURE could easily be the class in the race forgetting its last run previously had run placed in the Oaks * 2nd  , followed by another 2nd in the German Oaks and a 3rd in the Yorkshire Oaks. I feel this is still open to further improvement with stamina assured if its ready to race it should win. 
Both the LARK and THISTLE BIRD have the same rating on my books and both come into this with almost identical chances and both have the capacity to get involved but they will both need to improve and show some resilience....Mango Diva is being shipped into the deep end and may find this company a bit hot however if the leading fancies fail to show this could surprise along with Gifted Girl.



WIN - TRUE STORY ( NAP ) - WOW...How disappointing was that....Was hard at it fully 2f out and could never match The Great Gatsby.......Thats a shocker...i really thought this was the real deal...time for a shuffle then...
EW - N/A -
LONG - N/A -

SUMMARY - Now we move onto the days big race " THE DANTE " and with just the 6 taking their place it can be said its a disappointing turn out for a race worth £85k to the Winner...but to many its still " just a trials race "...On the Balance of form this is a two horse race , in the red corner we have the hugely impressive TRUE STORY who is as low as 11/2 for the Derby after a scintillating win lto and will take a world of beating in this , in the blue corner we have BUNKER from the Hannon yard which has previously been in France and lto had beaten the very smart Krakonite ( Recently Won the French 2000 Guineas ) and was a good 2nd in the Chesham behind Berkshire however this is now stepping up from 6f to 10f...Big difference and we currently have no idea at all as to whether or not it stays but on Breeding i would say yes for sure as its rare that any progeny of Hurricane Run fail to stay but at the same time not many can sprint so this may be an anomaly.....




SUMMARY - Now we have the Hambleton Hcap over 1m and again another race for the oldies with a few familiar faces and plenty of inter weaving form this could prove rather tricky for the punter....SPA'S DANCER ran a cracker in the Spring Cup and if in the same mood will be up there come business time...Ingleby Angel should give a good account as should Fort Bastion on past form but the 2nd selection we look at is the inFURYating FURY...a horse with Group 1 class and ability but an attitude that quite frankly stinks....He hasnt won for almost two years now with his last win actually being in this very race 2012 but he is now fully 10lbs lower and this slide in the weights and with Ryan doing the steering could see him net another Win.
Finally i think we should have TALES OF GRIMM who i feel has been let in quite lightly here , proven on the ground , proven in the grade and not without a good amount of ability on his day he could easily surprise.

NOTES :....Nothing i can say about this debacle....


LONG - N/A -

SUMMARY - Next up is a small field 3yr old dash and its a conditions race ( like a Hcap with Knobs on ) and its another tight affair.
This imo will play between JUSTICE DAY and ECCLESTON with the former getting the NB vote as its bare form is well clear of anything else achieved and if this has grown and wintered well then it will take a group class run to lower its colours but if it does fail to shine then Eccleston is best placed to make hay as it looks an out n out sprinter and i will be a bit shocked if this doesnt run well.

NOTES :......Going for a walk to see if i can manage to pull my head out my arse....



SUMMARY - Tricky maiden waiting but i have had some good reports regarding GAUDY and this will be my first point of call with Silver Ranger and Bonds Choice the others.

NOTES : LoL...this about sums up my day...



SUMMARY - High-class jumper Cape Tribulation last ran on the Flat at this venue in October 2012 where he just failed to concede weight to Mashaari. He'll think he's been let loose with this weight and has to be on the shortlist despite an absence since Wetherby on Boxing Day. Calculated Risk had been in winning form over hurdles before reverting to the Flat with an unlucky in-running effort at Pontefract and his stablemate Hidden Justice landed a tough handicap hurdle at Haydock in March. Albert Bridge scored over timber at Plumpton before a placed run behind Whiplash Willie at Salisbury and Man Of Plenty made a promising reappearance at Doncaster which should have brought him to the boil. If the ground dries out as expected, EAGLE ROCK can gain his third success over the course and distance. He was highly tried after his last victory in September so it's a surprise that he's just 1lb higher and his trainer will have him fired up for this.


_________________________________________________Lets see how long the Placepot lasts today ;-~~

Tuesday, 13 May 2014

The York DANTE Meeting...

Evening All ,
                   Yes its post time as we rattle onwards with the flat season and its York's turn to titillate us but i stress the ground is soaking as we have nothing more than rain for the last few days and ive a feeling that any good soft going front runners will be very hard to peg back ( as shown via Beverley today )  and you may well see some outrageous results.....all im saying is dont be shocked if a shock a realist...on a day when we have horses rated 33 , 45 and 55 ( 30lbs behind best ) all winning today has prove that when the conditions get poor anything can happen....and usually does....

Right so we have that sorted we can move into some form an analysis as we have some damn good races on Day with the highlight being the Musidora stakes race and a race i have some relevant attachment to but of course it wouldnt be York without some monstrous handicaps to fry ones brain.,.....hope everyone has their magic pins at hand....

YORK ( DAY 1 ) 


SUMMARY - We start the day off with a traditionally tough 18 runner Hcap over 1m2f and in soft going with a long run in this could be brutal or rather attritional as you will need to be well placed swinging in or have the knowledge you have a lot of horse under you that loves the ground.
Tres Coronas hacked up at last week but will find the opposition a different kettle of fish here plus the penalty means as far as im concerned this has no chance whatsoever ( ran a great race to run 2nd ) . RYE HOUSE however comes here still unexposed having just the 6 starts in 3 years with his last run being a CD victory as his sole outing last year , " back in the day " this one of those talking horses a beast that carried as much hyperbole that could be spoken or written but for one reason or another he has never reached those lofty heights but is still a horse with tremendous potential ( with some decent enough form as he was a whisker away from arriving here looking for a 4 timer ) , Hes a CD winner ,  loves the soft and has Ryan Moore doing the steering...whats not to like ??...its a seasonal debut and hes a rather skinny 4.5 but for a horse that has easily the potential to be rated 105++...he could well find himself a grade better than most...v interesting runner.
LAHAAG has shown a distinct liking for York ( This includes getting beaten a Neck by First Mohican in this very race last year > 5lbs higher this year )  with several win and placed efforts and most ground comes alike and with the Gosden yard still in very rude health and Hanaghan riding it would be folly to rule this one out although i do think hes a few pounds too high.
Silvery Moon is the type Easterby lays out for York and shouldnt be under estimated as the Yorkshire Lads like a few winners here.
The only other horse i like is STORM KING who should come on a good few pounds for his opening salvo at Donny recently and will enjoy the trip and surface.**The last 6 Winners were all classy sorts from the big yards...class will out here.

NOTES : That was a Garbage start...can only hope things improve.....However the Winner Clever Cookie was 2nd Fav and won like a horse well ahead of its mark...

WIN - FAST SHOT - 4th @ 23.20

SUMMARY - This next race is even more ludicrous...a 20 runner 6f dash for the older brigade.....this will be mental and tactics will be all important.
11/1 the field tells you just how incredibly tough this first selection is a complete dodgepot but i just go into lemming mode when this runs and i have to back it...VALBCHECK....on its day ( and it has plenty left ) its a bloody good horse but is more often than not prone to throwing his dummy out , one time fav' for the Guineas , Derby mention and future star this did nothing but disappoint until being dropped in trip and finally getting off the mark ( after its initial 2 runs ) in a Listed AW event but he comprhensively beat some good yardsticks that day in Lancealot Du Lac , Hawkeyethenoo and Hitchens and showed he still has it he then went off Fav for the AW sprint championship and rattled home almost last getting beat by all those he had previously thrashed...slowly away, dwelt at the rear and well...basically couldnt be arsed getting involved.....if it goes his way he has a big chance..if not then forget it...but at 25/1 its worth a few nibbles at anyones wallet.
YEEOOW must have a big chance off bottom weight although the ground is a slight concern however a fast break will be important as he likes to run behind the early pace then make a 2f move and if he gets first blood he may not get caught.
im writing Baccarat off as he wont like the ground so my final nomination will be FAST SHOT from the Easterby yard a confirmed sprinter with a liking for soft or heavy ground that comes here in top form seeking a hat trick and gets a handy 7lb allowance from good claimer Rachel Richardson.

NOTES : Inc Secret Witness and Aetna ( 1st @ 8.20 ) into my Placepot. > And thats the Yorkshire lads up n running....

EW - REGARDEZ ( EW NAP ) - 3rd @ 8.80 ( BoooM for me )

SUMMARY - Yay !!..Proper race we head over to todays feature race....The Musidora , A race for Fillies over 1m2f and it looks a cracking renewal.
Those of you that know me will already be aware of why and what my selection is here so all im going to say is REGARDEZ ( EW NAP ).

NOTES : Cambridge just holding off the unlucky Regardez last season.

WIN - MAAREK - 1st @ 16.10

SUMMARY - Next up we have a group 2 sprint over 6f for 3+ yr olds and this looks a tasty event.
MAAREK simply has to be a focus horse as its last 12 Victories have all come with cut in the ground as this is only one of a handful that can truly quicken in sodden ground, not just staying on but quicken and if this is anything like back to the form shown 4 runs back when he won the Abbaye or before that when he won the Airlines sprint then its game on..or game over....big big chance in this ground.
JACK DEXTER is an old favourite of mine and is a damn fine sprinter and has a little bit of class enough to get him very competitive here and any horse that ends up in front of Jack will know they have had a race.
BODY AND SOUL is a very lively outsider , this looked like hosing up lto only to be given a dreadful ride by fentiman who keeps the ride today and this could easily get into the mix as its a very strong travelling type that eats up ground , loves the conditions and can quicken sweetly..i really like this horse although not really proven in the grade i feel it could easily be upto this as he showed when winning the 19 runner Spring Charity event over 6f here at York last year ( not gonna make a big deal about the CD win as the field is packed with CD winners ) ...well worth a few quid imo.
In what looks a tremendous turn out and an incredibly tough race to call you can pick another 3 or 4 with these and still have none placed....its that tough....but shud be a cracker to watch.

NOTES : I also have ASTAIRE in my Placepot.


SUMMARY - Brilliant now we have a 7f Hcap with 20 runners...Magic Pin anyone ??..
This looks impossible at first glance, though four favourites of have won in six previous renewals so the betting has proved a valuable guide. That Is The Spirit and Provident Spirit will no doubt come in for support as the former beat the latter in soft ground at Doncaster before John Gosden's charge went on to win at Newmarket. Both are preferred to the more exposed recent winners New Bidder, Rogue Wave and Inyordreams. Slemy is not easily dismissed having got off the mark at Lingfield and Tea Leaf won nicely in testing going at Salisbury recently. But the speculative vote goes to the returning IDEA, who beat a subsequent winner over 6f at Windsor in October and has an entry in the Group One St James's Palace Stakes at Ascot.

NOTES : Drew a blank here as the Tudhope ridden Fav led them all a merry dance and in truth nothing ever got a race in...non event with the Fav looking different class.

LONG - N/A -

SUMMARY - Finally a small field event and this is for the 2 yr olds and it looks pretty decent tbh but i do like the dutch bet with WINSTANLEY and ABSCENT FRIENDS both of whom carry going form and are in good heart and look the types to do ok here , speculative fun dutch in a tricky race.

NOTES : Awful race for me ;-~(

EW - ASTRA HALL ( always back Crowley in the finale ) - 3rd @ 10.50

SUMMARY - And the " getting out stakes " is a bonkers 18 runner Hcap....However...
GABRIAL'S STAR is a winner without a penalty having taken an apprentices' race at Chester in good style only last week. Ryan Moore picks up the ride and the Richard Fahey gelding can go in again. Pilgrims Rest also ran well at Chester and drops down a grade for this while O Ma Lad showed some improvement for his slide down the weights when runner-up at Hamilton last time. Ebony Express failed to cope in Class 2 company on his latest start but today's trip and ground suit ,while Astra Hall is another with claims racing off the same mark as when second at Doncaster earlier this month. Mica Mika seems to prefer the Polytrack nowadays but Frankie's presence on Da Do Run Run suggests a big run from the latter is expected.


________________________________________________Looks a very tough day but very good fun...wish i was there tbh...Good Luck Players...ttfn x.

Saturday, 10 May 2014

French Guineas on Sunday...

1000 - LESS TALK IN PARIS - Unplaced but i got the win with me 4 way dutch....;-~) 
 as Avenir Certain WINS...



RESULT - Did ok with the Dutch...

Less Talk in Paris is a good looking CD Winner ( not far off a double CD winner ) and is improving and with Mendizabal riding you can be assured a smooth passage round it will take some smart runs to see this not place imo in what looks a sub standard renewal i think this has every chance.

Decathlete is another CD Winner and this win came lto in what was a very smooth win and with track specialist Guyon riding is another certain to be given every chance and should be another winner for Fabre / Godolphin.

Early prices are 4.25 / 5.25 but will be subject to considerable change in the next 16 hours or so.


OTHERS TO NOTE : Both NEWSROOM ( 4TH @ 4/1....Why do so many EW bets come 4th...Grrr and ADELAIDE  ( 2nd @ 3.95 ) are worth looking at in the earlier races and both could be slung in for a nice EW L15 ( or similar ) as both arrive here with very strong chances.

Over in Ireland we have the Derrinstown Trials races and both have some very good looking prospects on show , Firstly however we must make a mention of MUSTAJEEB in the Amethyst Stakes ( earlier race ) as Weld has won this race the last three years with Famous Name and now sends this , currently has a diary stacked full of fancy engagements and Group 1 entries this will have to win rather well to warrant his place among the Elite...but thats not beyond the realms as the form behind War Command is as good if not better than anything on show. - 1st @ 4.60

Right onto Trial Nos 1 .
This is an Irish 1000 Guineas Trial  but i like one that isnt entered into any classics currently and that is STARS SO BRIGHT...another Sea The Stars progeny..which tbh doesnt bode well as i feel the progeny of STS have been anything but bright stars in fact most have been a bloody big disappointment but im hoping this one can climb the ranks and show some real worth in a tough looking race but one that doesnt look anything more than a decent Group 3 and i feel as both Weld and O'Brien come here with strong looking early season types you may be able to grab a decent price and i wouldnt overlook Waltzing Matilda and if the prices allowed i would def advise a FAP DUTCH. - Poor runs from both in truth however it was a SEA THE STARS progeny that won in the shape of the Weld runner Afternoon Sunlight....

In the Derby Trial we have another Aiden O'Brien hotpot to overcome although admittedly this Geoffrey Chaucer looks a very strong sort indeed and any form of natural improvement or progression will make this very hard to beat however its my view that it will have to improve to both win and justify the fancy prices he attained with the hype, two runs last year resulted in 2 Victories and both were over 1m  now stepped upto 1m2f for this it will have to show some strengthening in the paddock and on the track as it was pushed along , nudged and nurdled in both Wins , never travelling that well at the finish and the rider had to work both times so im in no way convinced a strong run 1m2f will suit...time will tell but for me i much prefer the look of proven stayer and CD winner FASCINATING ROCK who is all speed on the sire side but all stamina thru the dam and this very good looking type could easily prove the match of GC and could well turn out to be a very smart Gp 1 horse....this will be a proper race for sure as we have no pacemaker, no front runner and everyone wanting to race off the back of someone else...will be very interesting. - 1st @ 2.14
WIN Double - 

and ALL 7 named selections in EW 4 folds....Unplaced , Non Runner , 4th ,  2nd , 1st , Unplaced and 1st....

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Should make for an interesting day...

Wednesday, 7 May 2014

Away some early thoughts...

Well Day 1 of the Chester Meeting went well even if my much vaunted Nap got so well beaten i think its still running...The Good Doctor had a decent day in winning the big race and the one race he stated this morning was on his wish fact he got 1st/2nd ( FC paid £71.66 ) and that was obv a Win for me as i dutched his five at double figure odds ;-) i out of the office all day tmrw i shall post up some early thoughts....

Chester Day 2 ( Straight thru so Keep Up.... )

We start the day off with a Hacp over 1m2f for the oldies ( 4+ yrs ) and it looks quite tight  ( 6/1 the field )  but has plenty coming into this with some respectable form and at first glance i would say any one of around 6 could win.
Ex Cecil in mate Squire Osbaldston is a frustrating type as its got plenty of ability but rarely gives his all , Sennockian Star is reliable and is sure to go well , Wigmore Hall has the back form to carry these home but isnt the force of old , Thats Plenty is an unknown but has to be respected , Yeager has a solid chance but his usual hold up and charge tactics may not be best suited here if a horse gets a jump off the bend so i will have a go with the Donal Mccain inmate GABRIEL THE GREAT a progressive son of Montjeu whose last run can be discounted as it missed the break completely , Donald is himself no stranger to having a winner here as he trained the excellent Overturn to do the biz and will Lee doing the steering this will come into this having every chance , fitness assured i rate this a solid EW bet ( Currently 11.0 ).
Next up is a decent looking renewal of the Huxley Stakes over 1m2f and again for the oldies but i have my NAP here in the shape of NOBLE MISSION again racing over his ideal trip on a course that will suit and play to his strengths i see this again leading out , making all and not getting pegged back in the softening ground , Telescope is expected to do better than be 9L behind Noble Mission last time as that run was nothing like what he can do however at this trip there are not many better and if NM has recovered from his last run he will win.
Now for the days BIG race the Chester Vase and this looks a cracking renewal with some very nice sorts on show.
Both the O'Brien pair in Orchestra and Carlo Bugatti have leading claims as their trainer seeks a 6th win in the last 9 years however both will have to be well above average to win Scotland , Romsdal and Seagull Star to beat however the bet for me here is a good looking EW on STARS OVER THE SEA ( 14/1 ) as i really thought the run behind Our Chanel lto was a good un and any form of progression on that sees in the money and with some luck in running could easily out run his odds and go onto win this , i said this is a tough race where many hold chances but at the odds i like it as a sporting bet.
Now we have a tough looking 7f Hcap for 3 yr olds and its another where half a dozen come into the reckoning , CAPTAIN BOB ,  Muteela and Our Gabrial all have leading claims with the former just favoured by me.
Nice looking Maiden next up and Beacon comes into this well fancied by connections but has a shitty draw to overcome ( we have seen that negated a few times already ) and with a good clean break will take all the beating but this is another i would to see the trap first then decide..quick getaway equals bet..slowly away and its a lay , BILLY SLATER has been kept nice and warm for this and the yard i know like this one a lot and i will be very surprised if this doesnt show up very well and at around 10/1 is in my opinion a cracking EW bet.
Race six and its a Hcap and its JAZZ for meand in the finale i would look at DISPOUR and Long Journey Home.....if all else fails just back all the Koukash runners as im sure he will hit at least 1 today but could easily hit 3 such is the strength in the camp in these targeted races, good luck and have fun.

Chester Trials Meeting >>

Morning All ,
                    Well yesterday went well , just shows what you can take from a poor situation and make good .Moving forward we cast our eyes over the three day Chester Festival to see if we can garner any further clues for the upcoming season , this is a tough track and not many adapt well here , the draw can play a big part in any outcome and anything the " Good Doctor " sends here should be respected as he treats this like his local track and always goes for a win or two.
 I wont post a card up as i usually do for these as its only a minor meeting but i will go through the card giving a general summation for you to pick at.

Race 1 >  We start with the Lily Agnes Stakes a race for 2yr olds over 5f ( and a wee bit )  and as you can see from the pic this is a very unconventional track and times are to be taken with a pinch of salt here , for 2 yr olds this is a task , 3 bends to cope with , a sweeping bend , a sharp bend and then the final bend into the shortish straight and a lot can lose position and lengths here ( over any distance ) and draw bias is as important as you will find...low numbers with good early speed is what you need.
CHARLIES STAR fits the bill here as it likes to make all , has bags of early pace and has track specialist Franny Norton riding ( he is excellent here ) and at 8.0 makes plenty of appeal , Beaten fto by the useful Tiggy Wiggy which has won since in a canter , then beaten by the useful looking Kasb before finally shedding the maiden tag with a fairly convincing all the way win at Yarmouth and i think if allowed to bowl along upfront will take a lot of beating.
MUKHMAL simply has to be a LAY even at 6.60....Firstly it only beat Cheerio Sweetie 1 & 1/2L last time out giving 5LB and now has to concede almost a stone and it has the worst possible draw whilst Cheerio Sweetie has the plum rails draw....monumental task , herculean my eyes this is a task only Frankel could take on....
Roudee has a nice chance but again has a poor draw to over come....after first abusing old mate Richard Hurd this morning over his lack of summary after nominating the two Evans Horses for 1st n 2nd i am forced to admit he may actually be correct for whatever reason as it does seem a very logical outcome , the two speedsters both with plum draws against the two main rivals that have to give a ton of weight away from piss poor draws....Evans Dutch and Lay looks the best bet scenario to me....*Magical Memory could easily improve enough to get involved as this was badly hampered at an important stage fto and went off the 85/40F so was obv thought capable of. - MUKHAMAL WINS !!... ( WIN for me as i ended up with a BTL @ 7.0...which i figured was too high too lay and traded out at 4.0..)..This trapped like a greyhound and was never for catching...this was very very impressive....


Full Result

1st (10)Mukhmal (IRE)M Johnston29-7P Hanagan6/1
Fast away, soon crossed over from wide draw to lead, clear over 1f out, ran on strongly opened 11/2
2nd (9)RoudeeTom Dascombe29-1R Kingscote5/1
Unseated rider behind stalls, led early, chased leading pair, went 2nd well over 1f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace final furlong opened 7/1
3rd (3)½Charlie's StarP D Evans28-7F Norton8/1
Off the pace in 5th, headway and switched left to inside over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, went 3rd towards finish opened 6/1

RACE 2 >>
Next up is a very tasty looking Cheshire Oaks over almost 1m4f and this looks very tight on paper.
Aiden O'Brien has won this Oaks Trial 3 times in the last 6 years so obv likes it and has sent a few good uns in between although none have gone on to win although Wonder of Wonders was a close 2nd ( behind Dancing Rain ) and 3rd in the Irish Oaks so its not a bad trial at all. He has sent this year 99 rated TERRIFIC and this big Daughter of Galileo looks the type to improve for both his first run and the step up in trip and will surely be in the mix come the final 1-2f  but offers little value to the punter in an open race.
BRIGHT APPROACH was very visually impressive with her fto win and must come into the reckoning but this is a big step up in class and a watching brief can be the only clever move with that one , One horse i think is much over priced is FULL MOON FEVER ( currently 90/1 ) this Daughter of Azamour ( great stayer ) is a full brother to 86+P rated Glorious Protector who has won over 1m2f and has a couple of 2nds over 1m4f and has the same attritional running style ( looks beaten at halfway then runs on ) , this won its Maiden ( 2nd start ) over 1m4f at Wolverhampton with the 2nd beaten almost 2L and a full 15L back to the third and the time of that race is comparable to the winning Oaks time of the likes of Talent , Dancing Rain and Light what we have is a horse that stays , can battle should like the ground and can run to a time putting her right in the picture , my only real concern is that if she suffers her usual mid race off the bridle silliness she will find herself run out of position and may struggle to make it back..she has to stay up front in the front 4 or 5 to be able to challenge....if she does its game on...and at 90/1+ there are far worse bets than this.
 ANIPA is another in a field full of potential improvers that could come on again for the step up in class and trip.....this is a good looking race and hard to call , the only bet for me is a fun EW on Full Moon Fever at ridic odds....small bet n nothing lost if it fails to run to form. - My " Fun Bet " Went of at 97.69 and traded at 36 ( i traded at 50 for a fun free bet ) and Anipa outstayed the field to win quite cosily however the horse to really take from this was BRIGHT APPROACH as this was still tanking when running on at the end coming 3rd but looked like it took 1m3f just to get stoked up....with a stronger run race and more forcing tactics this could end up a truly top class if not world class stayer...i was impressed..


Full Result

1st (2)AnipaR Varian39-0 hAndrea Atzeni16/1
Tracked leading pair on inside, went 2nd 4f out, pushed along over 2f out, ridden to lead entering final furlong, stayed on, driven out opened 20/1
2nd (4)½Secret Pursuit (IRE)M P Tregoning39-0Oisin Murphy16/1
Raced keenly, led, clear 3f out until ridden well over 1f out, headed entering final furlong, kept on opened 14/1
3rd (9)Bright Approach (IRE)J H M Gosden39-0William Buick5/2
Took keen hold, held up in last trio, pushed along over 3f out, headway on inside over 2f out, switched right 2f out, ridden and stayed on into 3rd inside final furlong, never going pace to trouble leading duo opened 11/4 £2750-£1000 £1100-£400 £2000-£800 £1250-£500(x2)
RACE 3 >>>
This can be regarded as " the big one " the Chester Cup over 2m2f  and an amazing 17 runners for this marathon race on a tight track...prepare to be jostled....The good Doctor has five..yes five runners in this so is obviously keen to nail a win here and i will be dutching these as the odds vary between 10/1 and 40/1 so there is plenty of meat on them bones...but again small stakes and for fun trades, no faps..just five way dutch at Equal stakes ( as opposed to equal return..this way if one of the outsiders win i get a good lump back ).
For the more serious punter i would suggest your not in fact a serious punter if your lumping on a race like this ..however for the sake on analysis i will look at a couple i like for the win.
I will nominate GLENARD and OPEN EAGLE as decent EW punts against the field but in truth its a wide open race , a very tough race and just one to enjoy...i will sit back n cheer " Bring me the Cash Koukash "...

RESULT - BooM as Koukash WINS with Suegioo @ 10.20 ;-)) ( Actually hits 1st n 2nd

Full Result

1st (4)Suegioo (FR)M Botti59-4 pR L Moore10/1
2nd (11)½15 Angel Gabrial (IRE)R A Fahey59-2J P Spencer7/1
opened 8/1 £2400-£300
3rd (2)11 CommunicatorA M Balding69-4Oisin Murphy (3)6/1
opened 9/1 £2400-£300 £2250-£300
4th (5)¾Mubaraza (IRE)E A L Dunlop59-5P Hanagan4/1f
opened 9/2 £4500-£1000 £1800-£400
5th (14)17 GlenardC Hills48-13F Norton12/1
opened 11/1
RACE 4 >>>>
Next up is a race for the " older brigade " and its a 5f sprint with literal,lateral and conducive form lines galore....GO NANI GO looks to have a major role to play coming out of box 3 with Franny riding this in form sort will surely try and break quick, grab a slot, sit off the lead and run on late...however he has mostly raced from off the pace, been in rear or been slowly away and he could easily lose any advantage here with a tardy start so my advice if wanting to back this is wait until they break then place an in the run may have to settle for a lower price than BFSP but nat least you know where you stand..if its slowly away i see no way how it can win here.
Top Boy is another form horse with a plum draw that has started last twice very slowly and is another that will need to trap quick to grab a good pozzy.
CASPIAN PRINCE however has the Nos 1 slot and likes to lead/make all or sit with the pace arrives in good heart and will make this a solid test and his last 2 runs were completed in very good times with very good splits especially the eye catching run at Wolvo on his last start...this breaks well it probably wins imo.

RESULT - Caspian Prince trapped well took the lead and ran well just fading a bit as Sir Maximilian swooped late to win going away but 2nd was a good result.

Full Result

1st (4)Sir Maximilian (IRE)T J Pitt58-7S Donohoe7/1
Held up off the pace towards rear, headway 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, led final 150 yards, ran on strongly and won going away opened 8/1
2nd (1)Caspian Prince (IRE)A W Carroll59-2 htJames Doyle4/1f
Led at fast pace, ridden over 1f out, headed final 150 yards, kept on same pace and did well to hold on to 2nd opened 7/2 touched 10/3 £3200-£800 £1320-£300
3rd (7)½Ballista (IRE)Tom Dascombe69-6 p1R Kingscote5/1
Pressed leader at fast pace, ridden over 1f out, lost 2nd inside final furlong, kept on same pace opened 9/2 touched 6/1
4th (2)½11 Top BoyD Shaw48-5 vJ Fanning5/1
Slowly into stride, held up in rear and well off the pace, plenty to do when headway on inside over 1f out, switched left to inner and strong run inside final furlong, finished well, unable to reach leaders opened 13/2 £1650-£300
5th (3)10 Go Nani GoE De Giles88-6F Norton9/2
In touch on inside, ridden and unable to quicken over 1f out, kept on same pace after opened 5/1
RACE 5 >>>>>
Tough looking Maiden now for the 3yr olds but most do have some experience to claw upon and the nice looking RANGI CHASE sets the benchmark with three placed efforts from 3 and rated at 77 gives this a strong look , this is another Koukash inmate from the very much in form Fahey stable and this simply has to be top 3 material . Ran in 3 quality maidens all won by good horses with lots of franked form and all 3 were over a mile and this was always staying on , this Lawman colt will improve for both age and the step up in trip as Lawman's do much better at 3 and 4 over 1m2f-1m4f than any other and i will be very surprised if this doesn't place at the minimum and at 12.50 must rank as a proverbial " EW BET TO NOTHING "....i simply have to get involved at that price..crazy not too.
Elsewhere...well to be frank they are all much of a muchness, improvers or expected improvers looking to come on for a run or to try and garner more experience...i see no reason to go against the good doctor here....PRINCE OF STARS at 2.32 was 5th in the Wood Ditton at the Craven Meeting  but looked leggy , one paced and nothing special and ive a feeling that the fact its a See The Stars Colt trained by Gosden that has given this a short price...i make this my LOTD at this crazy price and at the very minimum ranks a MAX LTB. - Rangi Chase hit 4.8 in the run from a BFSP of 7.80 ( well backed ) but spent too much energy getting to the front and racing 2 deep all the way as it faded tamely from the 2 pole to run down the field, Prince of Stars WON very nicely after hitting 4.1 in the run from an sp of this would have made a Good LTB.


Full Result

1st (8)Prince Of StarsJ H M Gosden39-5William Buick11/8f
Held up in mid-division, steady headway on outside tracking leaders over 3f out, went 2nd well over 1f out, led and hung left over 1f out, stayed on well opened 5/4 touched 13/8 £1300-£800 £3750-£2500 £1500-£1000 £600-£400(x2) £2200-£1600 £1375-£1000 £1100-£800 £1250-£1000 £600-£500
2nd (1)1Dursey Island (USA)Richard Hannon39-5R L Moore16/1
Held up towards rear on inside, headway on inside well over 1f out, stayed on into 2nd inside final furlong, kept on but unable to reach winner
3rd (4)Glasgow CentralC Hills39-5R Winston33/1
Tracked leaders on inside, ridden and one pace when hung left over 1f out, plugged on inside final furlong, went 3rd close home
RACE 6 >>>>>>
Next up its a sprint and its Borderlescott time...Yes the grand ol retiree is looking for one more win and the CD winner has the plum draw to attack from and if in the mood will make them all go but can the old boy do it ?..well on the recent evidence of his last run there is no sound reasoning against it or a solid run but i do prefer the chance of LUCKY BEGGAR and MASAMAH , i would like to see Borderlescott win but its a tough ask against a couple of very handy sprinters with good draws...this could go any number of ways as is the case with a lot of sprints.
Swan Song is not out of this either... - SWAN SONG WINS @ 6.40 whilst Masmah is 2nd @ 6.20..good little sprint.


Full Result

1st (3)11 Swan SongA M Balding58-13David Probert5/1
Quickly away, led briefly, pressed leader, switched right off inside rail approaching final 3f, ridden to challenge over 1f out, led final 150 yards, ran on well opened 11/2
2nd (4)1Masamah (IRE)M Botti89-4 pJ P Spencer5/1
Soon led, switched left to inside approaching final 3f, ridden 2f out, hung right under pressure inside final furlong, soon headed and kept on same pace opened 6/1
3rd (6)Trinityelitedotcom (IRE)Tom Dascombe49-4R Kingscote3/1
Chased leading pair, ridden over 1f out, one pace and no impression final furlong £9000-£3000 £6000-£2000 £3000-£1000
RACE 7 >>>>>>>
Finally to round a decent looking day off we have a very nice looking 1m4f Hcap where plenty have chances , The Hernando Gelding CAPTAIN MORLEY ( Koukash ) is an obvious place to start and at 8.6 represents only fair value but its Maiden Win on the AW over 1m1f was full of promise and this could run a decent race if fully staying and i see no reason why it shouldnt.
I have no idea why Lovelocks is 2nd Fav at 5.7 as this has shown very little and is a very solid Lay Option ( Lay Double with Mukhmal is a v good bet with limited liability ). ANGLO IRISH looks the outstanding Class in the race and is the one they all have to beat imo has only raced on the AW so far but ground on breeding shouldnt be an issue and this absolutely hacked lto over 1m4f and could be a good few LB better than most of these ( NAP ) .


Full Result

1st (1)Storm Force TenA M Balding38-13David Probert3/1f
Tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, went 2nd entering final furlong, led inside final furlong, stayed on gamely £4500-£1000 £3600-£800 £2000-£500 £1600-£400
2nd (9)hdCaptain MorleyD M Simcock38-13J P Spencer4/1
Held up towards rear, pushed along and headway on inside over 2f out, angled out well over 1f out, chased leaders over 1f out, strong run inside final furlong, went 2nd final strides, just held opened 9/2


Copy Halt