Wednesday, 21 May 2014

Favourites to Take On...

Morning All ,
                       Its a quiet week as we we build up to a very busy weekend of action which will incorporate the Irish Classics so i thought i would take a look through each of the day meetings and assess the favourites from each race....Back , LAY or Leave.....

We will start off at Ayr...

AYR 

RACE 1 : Jungle Cat
CURRENT PRICE  : 2.74
BFSP : 3.50
Summary : An open looking maiden and this Johnston runner is a rare one in the fact thats its an Iffraj and quite speedily bred unlike a lot of his which are generally more stoutly bred and thats a concern , this is one to just leave alone as its a toss up at the price..decent back, decent enough lay but not low enough to tempt me in and if Fanning gets a flyer and tries to make the running the trade options are low so all round this is just one to leave alone although this is a high stat lay ( PPL ) race.

Result : UNPLACED
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RACE 2 : New Lease of Life
CURRENT PRICE  : 4.0
BFSP :8.20
Summary : Very poor looking small field sprint hcap and a big PPL race however as a stand alone LAY its too high in the betting to be taking on with any significant confidence however if this dropped to at least 3.2 come off time or before then i would get involved in a trade ( LTB ) other than that its again one to leave.

Result : UNPLACED
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RACE 3 : Hab Reeh 
CURRENT PRICE  : 3.35
BFSP : 3.20
Summary : Div 2 of the above Hcap and this is just as tough tbh i dont know why they dont combine the two races , double the prizemoney and shorten the day......the Ruth Carr team is in fine form and standard jockey Sullivan is riding well enough to make them a formidable combo and the horse itself is in good form but the weight is an issue as its best form has been when its weighted to win at around 48-52 and the extra few pounds always seem to anchor him and at 3.35 i think this is a good TRADE , i will be looking to get out at Zero ( preferential Greening  which gives me a zero on the selection but higher return on the field ) at 4.4 for a £30 profit ( based on standard £100 Lays or part of thereafter ).

Result : 2nd
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RACE 4 : Tatlisu
CURRENT PRICE  : 4.50
BFSP : 4.93
Summary : Another small field Hcap ( 7f )  and a 8.8 on the stat scale and rather precarious for punters on both codes and quite frankly i see no point in getting involved in races with so many variables , Fav too high to lay , too big to be confident about and the field is a blanket....sit this one out...

Result :  UNPLACED
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RACE 5 : True Pleasure
CURRENT PRICE  : 3.35
BFSP : 3.97
Summary : Steady race and a fav that be TRADED , it has decent enough form figures however its best runs have been on the AW and its on a career high mark having been raised 9lb since its last win , this is another i will be trading out at 4.4 on.

Result : 1st ( Hit 5.2 In the Run )
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RACE 6 : Funky Monkey
CURRENT PRICE  : 4.0
BFSP : 7.0
Summary : Poor stayers race and this is a def LAY but ONLY if the i can get 3.35 or better pre off otherwise i will leave a " Keep Bet " in at 3.2 & 2.80 and look to trade out at 5.6 for a decent profit.

Result : UNPLACED ( Hit a LOW of 2.94 in the Run ;-) )
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RACE 7 : Imperial Legend
CURRENT PRICE  : 4.30
BFSP : 3.55
Summary : This is a Fav i like and is worth " Backing " with a LAY set at 2.46 and 1.12.

Result : UNPLACED ( Only traded at 3.0 in the run )
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And now we move onto

LINGFIELD....

RACE 1 : Men Dont Cry
CURRENT PRICE  : 3.65
BFSP : 3.36
Summary : This is a tough to call race , the combo of Giles and Murphy is strong although it is very weak on the stat scale ( 6.6 ) which makes me think the Fav will shorten pre off so a back bet now and trade pre off is a possibility but then the better bet would be an LTB at bfsp if it does shorten more certainly if it was to hit anything in the 2's then it would become a MAX ltb at 1 point higher , as a stand alone Lay it offers little as it looks quite strong given the paucity of opposition , trade or leave.

Result : 1st ( Hit 5.10 in the run )
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RACE 2 : Pack Leader
CURRENT PRICE  : 2.08
BFSP : 2.04
Summary : This looks a very strong Fav but i have it priced at a very solid 6/4 so i am laying this at 2.08 and trading out at 2.56 , but does look the likley winner.

Result : 2nd
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RACE 3 : Noguchi
CURRENT PRICE  : ( Place Market ) 1.51 & 3.0 ( Win )
BFSP : 3.55
Summary : Poor 3 runner field and a Win & Place LAY on the weakest of the three although this is a poor value bet in so many ways..for the needy and greedy only.

Result :  UNPLACED 
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RACE 4 : Dovils Date
CURRENT PRICE  : 3.25
BFSP : 3.65
Summary : This looks wide open is a massive 9.6 on the PPL rankings and has " Trade " written all over it...out at 4.40 for an easy profit.

Result : 1st ( Hit 20.0 in the run ) 
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Run out of time now...got busy chatting...lets see how we get on...
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