Friday, 2 May 2014

2000 Guineas Day >>>>

Morning All ,
                   We are finally here , its the start of the Classic Year with the years first Classic the 2000 Guineas and both the 1000 & the 2000 Guineas look very smart this year and as competitive as a race that i can remember in a long time.
We have a race ( 2000 Guineas ) that has it all , Form choices, Hype Horses , expected improvers , seasonal debutantes and a lot of hyperbole....and a decent looking support card so lets see if we can nail a few winners...




Full Result

1st (6)12 NiceofyoutotellmeR M Beckett58-8 hJim Crowley10/1
Held up, bumped over 2f out, headway 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on
2nd (19)nk14 Ajmany (IRE)L M Cumani48-7 bAndrea Atzeni14/1
Mid-division, headway 2f out, ridden and ran on, not reach winner opened 16/1
3rd (17)Bold SniperSir Michael Stoute49-3 hR L Moore9/1
Keen towards rear, headway over 1f out, switched right inside final furlong, ran on, not reach leaders
4th (12)2Trumpet Major (IRE)Richard Hannon59-10 t1R Hughes14/1
Prominent, ridden to lead 1f out, headed and no extra inside final furlong £10000-£500 £8000-£500 £4800-£300

SUMMARY : We start the day off with a ridic looking 19 runner Hcap over 1m1f...the proverbial Cavalry Charge....this should crack a few placepots, ruin the scoop and douse a few hearts...but lets not get too down hearted as i feel there is plenty of dead wood in this and im sure from three arrows we can get at least one to place...
The first on our list would have to be BIG BAZ a strapping great son of Pivotal and a very lightly raced sort that is open to any amount of improvement , with just the three runs behind him which include two victories and a distance win this Willie Muir inmate can be expected to improve further this season.
Big Baz has thus far only raced on the AW which is both good and bad...The bad part is the unknown factor of how he will act on the turf , will he carry his form forward?...well if the ground stays on the better side of good or good then i dont think it will be an issue and tbh being a Pivotal if the ground was to run soft i wouldnt be overly concerned now onto the good..well as his form is all on the AW he comes into this race on a lowly AW rating of just 85 and if his form was on turf i would be inclined to rate him at 95 which is fair enough as his last run a 3rd was a close affair behind a 92 rated runner in Star Links ( good yardstick ) and with improvement expected i think this is easily capable of running to a mark approaching 100 which puts him right in the mix and his current price of 11/1 looks reasonable although i was hoping for at least 16/1 tbh...this must have a very live chance in a wide open race.
I also like the look of STAND MY GROUND from the in form partnership of O'Meara / Tudhope , this last ran in the Spring Mile at Doncaster in soft ground but ran 2nd of 22 so is able and experienced in big field events was running on at the end and i dont see the trip posing any problems and Finally i think we should have ROSEARROW from the Balding stable this is very much an in and out performer but is very capable on his day and is another that come 2nd lto but looked the likeliest winner for all money 2f out as it was tanking along but the eventual winner grabbed first run and wasnt going to be pegged back , more forceful tactics could see an improved performance.

NOTES: All Unplaced and out of the Placepot at the first attempt...solid runs from all three , Big Baz run into room at an important time , Stand My ground was coming thru at the end but too late and Rosearrow just ran out of puff after leading or being with the leaders for most....Tough start...Lets hope the quadpot can return me a payday..



Full Result

1st (6)Sole PowerE Lynam79-2R L Moore9/4f
opened 11/4 £3000-£1000(x3) £5500-£2000 £2750-£1000(x2) £5000-£2000 £2500-£1000(x3) £1250-£500(x3)
2nd (9)½Kingsgate Native (IRE)R M H Cowell99-2 hJim Crowley12/1
3rd (3)hd11 Hot Streak (IRE)K A Ryan38-10Harry Bentley7/1
opened 6/1 £3600-£600
4th (4)nk10 Stepper PointW R Muir59-2 pMartin Dwyer16/1
opened 14/1
5th (10)1Moviesta (USA)B Smart49-2P Mulrennan15/2
opened 8/1 £3600-£450
6th (8)nkJustineoR Varian59-2 bAndrea Atzeni12/1

SUMMARY : Next up we have the Palace House Stakes over 5f and with 12 runners and this is generally won by a classy speedster with the winner usually coming from within the front four in the betting and is a decent race for favs.
Once again one of my " lemming " horses runs Kingsgate Native and once again i will have a go...this can win when it wants but time is catching up ( now 9 ) and will no doubt be as unpredictable as ever..-2nd @ 17.0
Pearl Secret must come into the reckoning as it looks to stake a claim for being one of the leading European sprinters this year but my stats tell me this still has a good few pound to find before it can lay claim to any titles and today will be overlooked by me and the same comments more or less can be laid upon the other Qatar runner Hot Streak...both come with bags of potential but both have something to prove and need to find a few lb of improvement.
Sole Power is a very very quick horse on its day but i think the ground might be a tad slow for him if this had been good to firm or quicker then i would have said yes a def probable but not if it turns good/soft...
Eton Rifles has a undistinguished record over 5f and im not convinced this is his trip...ROCKY GROUND is one i like as this arrives here as an improver with room for more improvement to come and has thus far run some very good splits and FT's and i think with Frankie taking the plate this 4yr old could have the key.
Hi stablemate JUSTINEO also comes into my reckoning on the back of a very consistent run of races last season hitting some good times and showing a very adaptable attitude and this could easily make the frame or better with a decent run from Atzeni.
 Finally i think we can have MOVIESTA on our side as this had run some very consistent and quick races last year with a few nice wins thrown in , forget its last run which was a no show, slowly away and wrongly drawn this was never a factor but had previously strung a good sequence together and is well worth his place in any sprint of any class.

NOTES: The ground is riding on the firm side as this brought SOLE POWER right into the equation and he Won as he could on his ideal ground., my three selections were based on the ground being on the soft side of good...but its now riding good , good to firm and there is little its kinda thrown the whole card off piste tbh...thats the problem doing advanced cards...can be unpredictable....


WIN - TRADING LEATHER - ( NAP ) - Piss Poor 3rd.....@ 1.70
EW - PETHERS MOON - 2nd @ 13.50
LONG - N/A -

SUMMARY : Now the older brigade get involved as we hold the Jockey Club Stakes a race over 1m4f and a tight looking race with the exception of one.
The exception of one applies to TRADING LEATHER now with the boys in blue but still in the care of Jim Bolger this stars light had shone brightest when winning the Irish Derby last year and then ran with merit coming second twice in the King George V and then the Juddmonte before rounding the season off with a solid 3rd in the Irish Champion Stakes i have to say i was a little surprised when it won the Derby ( Irish )  but it did show a very willing attitude after and although it couldnt follow this up with another win i feel their is more to come from this and getting a very useful age allowance i think it will be somewhat of a surprise if this cannot prove himself to be different class to these mostly exposed types who although useful are very much a ronseal bunch.

NOTES: Trading Leather ran awkward and was all over the place, never travelled and never pulled a 1 winner to swerve...



SUMMARY : Now its the time for the BIG one the 2000 GUINEAS and the years first Classic , as many readers will know i have already summarised a bit about this and my views on KINGSTON HILL who i think is an outstanding bet but it will be no cake walk thats for sure.
This race has generally been won by something a little bit special , Frankel , See The Stars , Camelot and Dawn Approach are just a few of the recent winners..what a list....what a fantasy race that would make...I think Kingston Hill can join those ranks but we also have a few others that will make a solid charge for the title and the winners enclosure , WAR COMMAND is one i like a lot and a horse that looks very useful along with Shifting Power , Australia has a lot to prove and ive not been concerned or convinced by the Coolmore Hyperbole , Toormore is imo not quite up to this level yet and then we have the much talked about and much vaunted KINGMAN now this horse does look and travel like its all class but i also think ( just my opinion ) this looks and travels more like a sprinter and i dont think it will lack for stamina but im not convinced it can run a time around 1m38 i think it will travel well, make a move quicken then flat line and at that point probably within the final 1f it will get overhauled demoting it to 2nd or even 3rd....Noozah Canarias is a dark horse i like and could be another " Makfi " , OUTSTRIP is very very interesting as this was well held and comfortably beaten by War Command over 7f in the Dewhurst but then ran a much improved race over 1m when following up that with a Win in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf race beating the very useful Bobbys Kitten but the close proximity of Giovanni Boldini is a worry as i dont really rate that much..but none the less a good run and another of equal should see him in the mix.

NOTES: The old " Back the Hannon 2nd..or 3rd...string " strikes again as Hannon Wins with Night of Thunder under Kieron Fallon @ 64/1.....strange race with two split groups , odd pace and tough tactically...Kingman made a move and looked the winner until getting collared close home with Australia running on for 3rd...



SUMMARY : 6F Hcap for 3 yr olds now and a tricky affair it is...




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