Tuesday, 6 May 2014

Tuesday Thoughts...

Afternoon All ,

Tbh i dont usually have that many thoughts on a tuesday as its one of those days you kinda forget that exist as it only acts as a fillip between Monday and Friday...however quite often these " shitty " days can lend themselves to more profitable situations than the much hyped big occasion meetings , so low level hcaps and maidens often turn in some good points for profit and that is why as a professional punter i often do much better on these low class days than the much vaunted disco days and today is no exception as we have 2 flat and 1 NH meetings to look at and its the flat i will be looking at trying to highlight some good betting options.

Firstly we shall go to Brighton...

The first race looks a 3 horse affair although i see this as a match up between the top 2 and ultimately a win for the Fav but at just over 2.0 the Fav and a shade under 3.0 the 2nd i would say the pro punt is a dutch if possible as i really cant see anything else getting involved at current odds the dutch pays around 1.20 and is imo a very good bet and would certainly fall under the banner.." pro bet ".- Iftar Wins @ 1.86 and Legacy of Love was a well beaten off 2nd ( 1st n 2nd Fav ).

Full Result

1st (4)Iftaar (IRE)C Hills39-2Dane O'Neill4/5f
2nd (2)1A Legacy Of Love (IRE)Mrs A J Perrett38-11R Havlin15/8
opened 7/4

The 2nd race is a non entity in racing parlance as none of the 7 runners have secured any form of C or D victories and this is as modest a race as you will find.
a Dutch on Crystalized and Jazz Bay would be my call here although its not a race to go in too heavy on. - And its another WIN as CRYSTALIZED is 1st @ 3.14.

Full Result

1st (5)Crystalized (IRE)D K Ivory38-9D Sweeney2/1f
In touch, rapid headway to lead 2f out, ridden out opened 15/8 touched 5/2
2nd (3)Sweet PiccoloP Butler49-5David Kenny (5)20/1
Towards rear, ridden and headway over 1f out, went 2nd well inside final furlong, no threat to winner opened 33/1
3rd (1)Jazz BayJ J Bridger38-9S Hitchcott8/1
Close up, ridden to chase winner over 1f out, kept on one pace, lost 2nd inside final furlong opened 15/2 touched 7/1

3rd race is a 5 runner Apprentice Hcap and is just as unappealing....with a stone separating top from bottom it may pay to stick with the lower weighted runners here especially as they have some form to bolster confidence, so again i am going in with a dutch on Salient and Megalala , however it must also be pointed out that at current odds this race rates a 9.8 on the Stat Lay scale ( followers will understand that ) and that makes the Fav ( currently Megalala ) very unappetizing....i will holster my bullets until nearer the time as i may have a monster LTB in this yet.- Another WIN but not as advertised as although MEGALALA won at Brighton for a 6th time after consideration i opted to make this a PPL race and Place Laid the top two in the betting and the 2nd Fav Minstrels Gallery was unplaced ;-).

Full Result

1st (2)Megalala (IRE)J J Bridger139-2Cam Hardie (3)15/8
opened 7/4
2nd (4)SalientM J Attwater108-7Rhiain Ingram (7)8/1

And onto race 4 the fare just gets worse..now we are down to just 4 runners in another poor hcap...there are two ways to play this...Dutch the top two ( although Boonga Regatta is a decent win bet as its the stand out on back form by a mile ) or Dutch FAP the two outsiders ( better value than a PPL bet ) ....both bets have equal credence in a tight affair as they are weighted to run to with around 2L of each other , my personal bet will be the Dutch Fap at decent enough odds. - And another WIN as BOONGA REGATTA is 1st with Yojojo 2nd ( was 6.0 3rd fav this morning until about 1pm then got steadily backed all the way down to 3.15 ) - 

Full Result

1st (4)Boonga RoogetaP Charalambous59-7Rosie Jessop (3)11/4
Led after 1f, made rest, ridden 2f out, joined inside final furlong, ran on gamely
2nd (1)nseYojojo (IRE)Miss Gay Kelleway59-5K Fallon15/8j
Close up in 4th, effort on inner over 1f out, ridden to join winner inside final furlong, ran on but always looked held opened 7/2
3rd (2)FamilliarityR Varian48-11Dane O'Neill15/8j
Tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, not pace to challenge
4th (3)Mu'ajizaP T Midgley48-7Martin Lane8/1
Led 1f, tracked winner, ridden over 2f out, no extra inside final furlong

Race 5 is another small field shithouse of a race but could yet yield more profit than expected.
This is a good race to have a PPL bet in as the odds dictate a close affair ( as well as weight and ratings ) and both the two favs are Odds on in the place market...- Another Win race but not for me as this become a NO BET race , the Fav was UNPLACED @ 1.49 and the 2nd Fav was 2nd but that went off at 2.38 so become a no bet race..i should have taken the early prices ( 1.82 ) ...sometimes it works for and others against....But at least i got the read right.

Full Result

1st (4)IshiamberGeorge Baker49-7Martin Dwyer7/2
Tracked leader, led 3f out, quickened 2 lengths clear approaching final furlong, ran on opened 4/1
2nd (2)Eastern Dragon (IRE)M Scudamore49-1Jack Duern (5)7/2
Close up in rear, ridden 2f out, stayed on to go 2nd close home opened 4/1
3rd (5)nkJaladeeR Varian49-6Jack Mitchell6/5f
Tracked leaders, ridden to chase winner over 2f out, keeping on one pace inside final furlong when lost 2nd close home opened 5/4

Race 6 is an open looking smallish size semi sprint race and i dont really feel i have any angle here so i will just dutch the four outsiders of the 7 at double figure odds and cross my fingers...not a race to get involved in tbh..for the needy and greedy only...- This was another Winning race for me but only after Dandys Perrier become a Non Runner..reason..well it quite simply become a PPL race then as the two Favs were both 1.60 FAP and they had to be Place Laid as one of the other runners could ( and did ) easily run into a place or better....( if i had kept my original bet i would have been ok as i would have traded all three with two getting matched at 2.14 and 2.32 respectively from bfsp's of 9.91 and 9.97 , would have traded out at 3.0 on all three for a profit / small loss so would have been fine )

Full Result

1st (3)Lady HoratiaW R Muir39-6Martin Dwyer13/8f
Tracked leader, ridden to lead entering final 2f, drew clear inside final furlong opened 7/4
2nd (5)6Baars Causeway (IRE)A P Jarvis39-7K Fallon8/1
Tracked leaders, ridden to chase winner just inside final furlong, no impresssion
3rd (2)Skinny LoveMiss Z C Davison39-7 pL P Keniry14/1
Led, ridden and headed entering final 2f, kept on same pace opened 8/1
4th (1)Spinning CobblersS C Williams39-2Dane O'Neill8/1
In rear, soon pushed along, ridden over 2f out, some headway over 1f out, not trouble leaders opened 6/1
5th (7)1Coiste BoDhar (IRE)J Tuite39-4Nora Looby (7)7/4
Taken to post early, raced wide in touch, ridden over 2f out, not trouble leaders opened 9/4

Finally to round off a poor card we have yet another poor turnout for this sprint and a Vincetti / Secret Missile Dutch is the bet for me although you can just about sneak a FAP dutch as well...but i feel the Win Dutch looks stronger , i will also be PPLing this race but not at current odds i will leave " Keep " bets in at 1.56 and caping as soon as first two get matched then hope for a turn around....- And to round the Card off we have another winning race  , the Dutch was caped as Vincetti become a non runner around 1500 however the Keep PPL bet was a WIN as three runners hit 1.03 or lower with the eventual winner Hamoody being the last to match at 1.56 and Secret Missile the first to match and was 3rd...;-))...for a poor days racing its turned out quite profitable ;-)0..ttfn.x

Well that sums up a poor day but should prove a profitable one if played right...time will tell...lets crack on with some bizzo now...ttfn x ( Results to follow as per norm thru the day )...


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