Saturday, 30 June 2012

Happy Weekend All...

Well we have had an outstanding Wimbledon so far with some major shocks ( and nearly  ) and already Nadal is on the plane home ....its been a crazy week but a week that has held some tremendous trading opportunities with the big wins coming from blanket laying anyone that starts off at 1.08 or less with those at 1.04 or less being laid at double stakes, some great wins and some very small losses tennis is becoming very profitable as i gradually get fully to grips with it all.
One aspect of trading which i noticed and traded in was this...Fed was in a tie break and it was him to serve at 1.68 he aced the serve went 1-0 and went down to 1.35 , Julien aced his serve and Feds price went back to 1.62-1.70 and so it kept swinging.....brilliant quick trading...
On the Horse Racing front imo todays best card is at Newmarket ( although the late afternoon Curragh card is obv the standout ) and Todays MAX NAP has to be MICHAELANGELO i simply just cannot see this losing i have it miles clear and even without improving ( which it should ) and running to form it shud walk this ( the first ).
In the 14:30 i see this as a match up between SANDREAMER and CITY IMAGE in a very interesting Empress Stakes race.
The 15:00 should see DANDINO get back to winning ways after running Hardwicke winner Sea Moon to a head and in a field full of disappointing and unreliable sorts he wont get a better opportunity.
In the 15:35 we see Hoof It racing over 7f and personally i just cant have it , over 6f this would be a mega nap but over thanks as i just cant see it staying the trip at full pace...unless it is really slowly run and then a race develops from the 4f pole.....Libranno and Firebeam are two of four that should give it plenty to do, interesting race.
The 16:05 sees a tremendously tough and class laden maiden which is typical for Newmarket as all the big guns like to come and play and i would suggest the £280,000 Invincible Spirit Bay Colt ESTIFZAAZ could well be the answer and is well worth a solid EW bet at 5.1>.
16:40 and a very tough and trappy hcap and i will have to side with MEDIA HYPE for the win but with a host of others holding chances i also like at a price WAR POET.
In the finale i would suggest DIVERTING as a solid looking EW bet after looking like hes running back to form with a close up 5th behind Highland Colori lto.

A tough,quality card that should provide plenty of entertainment.

Victoria Azerenka @ 1.04 is today's top tennis LAY/Trade.
Have a great weekend , keep smiling and keep the faith.

Wednesday, 27 June 2012

Todays best Bets from WIMBLEDON

Hi all , its been a quiet and unremarkable week thus far as i have another few days 1-2-1'ing coming up which is always good fun and no great racing till the weekend when we shall witness CAMELOT destroy his field in the Irish Derby so i have been dipping my toes into the world of Tennis Trading and doing quite well i may add , todays top 3 bets / Trades are :

1. Lay  - Sabine Lisicki @ 1.25 **Already hit or on** 2.12
2. Lay Florian Mayer @ 2.46 **4.2
3. Lay Juan Monaco @ 1.3 **1.52

All of these should offer good trade points.

** So there ya go 3 easy trades for today..;-)

Tuesday, 26 June 2012

R.I.P Campbell Gillies

Tragic News day , and its days and moments like this that remind us how short life can be , how cruel it can be and why sometimes we should feel privileged that we have reached it this far....

Jockey Campbell Gillies dies in holiday tragedy

CAMPBELL GILLIES, who secured the biggest win of his racing career on Brindisi Breeze in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival this year, has died while on holiday.
Campbell Gillies
Campbell Gillies: died on holiday
 PICTURE: John Grossick 
Jump jockey Gillies, 21, who rode over 50 winners for Lucinda Russell, including Brindisi Breeze, had ridden as recently as Sunday at Hexham before going on holiday to Kavos, Greece, on Monday where the tragedy occurred. He was due to turn 22 on Wednesday, June 27.
Winner of 131 races under rules in Britain, Gillies enjoyed his best ever campaign in 2011-12 with 38 winners, and had ridden four winners so far this season.
Tributes have been flooding in on Twitter, with Alexander Voy among his weighing-room colleagues to express their sadness.
He said: "I can't believe it. You only have one best friend and now he's gone. I'll never forget you @campbellgillies, love you pal xxx."

Robert Thornton tweeted: "I don't know what to say. Very, very sad words on here do not do it justice #legend."

Richie Killoran added his condolences, he tweeted: "There was never a dull moment when you were around Campbell, the world will be a much duller place without you. I will miss you pal. RIP."

Saturday, 23 June 2012

Morning All..

Right , had a little break to clear my head after a tough ol week and now feeling in the mood to win , today we have 4 good looking albeit tough cards from Ayr, HQ , R Ascot and Redcar and i think we should honour the great BLACK CAVIAR by doing a lite card for Royal Ascot.
For those of you that have been asleep for the past year and just awoken today BLACK CAVIAR is an Australian sprinter which will destroy ours today and everyday over 5/6f ( no chance he will race Frankel ) but at 1/5 doesnt really represent much of a betting proposition however as advised on Monday the enhanced double at EVEN'S ( with Ladbrokes ) for a Frankel/Black Caviar double is now looking even better ;-) .
So lets take a run thru todays races at Royal Ascot.....

Ascot 14:30 
Chesham Stakes (Listed)
£55000.00 added, 2yo only, 7f, Class 1..
Now bearing in mind i think all the races today will suffer from a form perspective due to the state of the ground i may get a bit adventurous ( then again , maybe not ).
Straight away i will say i have backed THA'IR in this , i was really taken by its run lto winning ( beating Bircham who then won nto ) by 4 1/2L and did it with the minimal of fuss , this wont mind the ground , wont mind any draw as he can make his own pace and could be that little bit special.
Of the remainder i think Jalaa or Lovely Pass are worth a second look as both should be in the mix , the three Arab runners mentioned i think are or at least should be different class and should have this between them and at 4.8 , 7.8 and 12.0 i think the dutch is a fair bet.
Move to Strike is an Interesting runner from the Bolger's and it won its last race by 9L in very soft ground so this wont be a problem but i think 2.72 is way too short and with a good few decent sorts against is well worth taking on , i for one will be Laying this.
17Tha'ir (IRE)9-3L DettoriSaeed bin Suroor29/2
opened 11/2 £5000-£900 £5000-£1000 Each Way
23Cruck Realta8-12Matthew DaviesM R Channon233/1
32nkLovely Pass (IRE)8-12S De SousaM Al Zarooni211/1
opened 9/1

Ascot 15:05 
Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2)
£200000.00 added, 4yo plus, 1m 4f, Class 1..
This looks like an exceptional renewal of this race and there are a host with outstanding chances most notably SEA MOON who is a superb athlete and with some superb form including an excellent 2nd in the breeders cup turf and a facile 8l victory in the Great Voltiguer this for me is the winner and at 4.7  is my EW selection.
However lining up against are a host of stars waiting to have a crack including Dunaden who if he can reproduce its form from the Melbourne Cup or Hong Kong Vase would give them all something to think about and will battle right to the line.
of the other contenders you also have Aiken which is unbeaten in 6 but faces his toughest task by a long way so far and Memphis Tennessee which is looking to kick start its stuttering career and did little wrong when winning the Ormonde Stakes but like Aiken will have to Improve just to get involved and will have to run way above anything its done previously to win.
I will be Laying Aiken in this as i just cant see it improving enough to win , 3rd is probably the best this will achieve imo.
I dont feel you can completely rule out Red Cadeaux tho either and this could easily snatch a place and a dutch place along with Dunaden is also a cracking bet with them both at 2.5....
Result:1stSea Moon3/1fav
2ndDunaden (FR)9/2
3rdRed Cadeaux9/1

Ascot 15:45 
Diamond Jubilee Stakes (British Champions Series & Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1)
£500000.00 added, 3yo plus, 6f, Class 1..
Here we are , the race we have all been waiting for and the horse we have all been salivating at to watch for real BLACK CAVIAR , this on all known form should win this as easy as it likes and at 1/5 is priced to do so...a MAX mortgage LUMP is a good way to " buy " some money.
For the Value seekers and those wanting to take it on i would say this , Firstly dont back anything to beat it , if your that way inclined then quite simply just Lay the Fav, and Secondly if your hunting a value bet from the race then i would advise a Place Only bet and a couple that offer some good value are ES QUE LOVE @ 340.0 ( 16.5 for a place ) and JIMMY STYLES @ 430 ( 17 for a place ) both are out n out speed merchants and i can imagine that the bigger guns like Society Rock, Moonlight Cloud and Krypton Factor could burn out trying to facilitate a charge against the fav and the light weights like those mentioned could be running for a place , of course this is all just me theorising in trying to look for a value alternative to betting the fav, but this is me , the same me that Backed TERIMON EW @ 1000/1 for the Derby when it ran 2nd to the mighty sometimes " anything " is possible ;-).
115Black Caviar (AUS)9-1L NolenP Moody61/6 f
touched 1/5 £1000-£4500 £20000-£100000 £7000-£35000 £5000-£25000 £2000-£10000 (x8) £1000-£5000 £2000-£11000 £1000-£5500 (x2) £10000-£60000 (x3) £5000-£40000 (x3) £3000-£18000 £2000-£12000 £1000-£6000 (x10) £2000-£14000 £1000-£7000 (x2) £2000-£16000 £1000-£8000
25hdMoonlight Cloud9-1T JarnetF Head45/1
opened 11/2
311nkRestiadargent (FR)8-8M GuyonH A Pantall340/1
touched 50/1

Ascot 16:25 
Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
£125000.00 added, 3yo plus, 6f, Class 2..
Now its the Cavalry Charge that is the Wokingham and all 26 line up making this a punters nightmare.

They don't come much tougher than the Wokingham Handicap but I must have a sadistic side as it's one of my favourite races of the year.
James Fanshawe was the winning trainer in 2011 and there's every chance he could retain the trophy as MACS POWER looks to hold solid claims at 15/1.
You have to go back 20 months for the last time he won a race but he's always knocking on the door in these big handicaps which is why his rating remains around the 100 mark.
The handicapper is just beginning to relax him a little and he looks primed to strike soon judging by his last run where he met trouble in-running a furlong out but still finished a close enough third.
That was further evidence he can go well with cut in the ground and with Kieren Fallon back on board on Saturday he can finally land the big handicap pot he's always threatened to.
He's drawn in 31 and Lui Rei is also worth considering from his high draw as he's got more to offer over six furlongs and there aren't many better trainers of sprinters than Robert Cowell in my opinion.
However, I haven't got the draw right all week and I want to back one from the low numbers too, with New Planet a big price at 33/1 if you forgive his York run.
I want to be with one in better form though and the horse I like most at the prices is COLONEL MAK at 25s.
He goes off a career-high mark but that's because he's never been in better form and he's another horse who just thrives in these big-field handicaps over six furlongs.
He's still on a competitive mark judging by his latest close third at Newmarket and at 25/1 I think his winning chances have been underestimated.
115Dandy Boy (ITY)9-8P DobbsD Marnane633/1
touched 50/1 £10000-£200 Each Way £5000-£100 Each Way £6600-£200 Each Way (x2)
223Waffle (IRE)9-2F M BerryT D Barron611/1
316½Hawkeyethenoo (IRE)9-4G LeeJ S Goldie620/1
opened 25/1
46Morache Music9-7S SandersP J Makin420/1
511Dungannon8-13William BuickA M Balding533/1

Ascot 17:00 
Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap
£70000.00 added, 3yo plus, 1m 4f, Class 2..
This is probably the toughest race of the day as its a field of battle hardened veterans that all have bits of form , most are entitled to a run and half the field can win so where we do we go for the winner?....
Well for starters i will be steering clear of the favs and big name yards as i feel this will be the time for the little man to shine and i think we should start with STAND TO REASON from Magnusson and CILL RAILAIG from Hughie Morrison both of which should run very respectable races and have enough ability to surprise , then there is Johnston which is a stable i can never get right but we all know he likes his stayers , they all stay in general and anything can happen with his , the only advice i will give regarding his runners are Back Win and Place Lay as they quite often win easy or do nothing.... 
Weighed In:1stCamborne11/2favFull Result  
3rdHarrison's Cave12/1 
4thAlkimos (IRE)20/1 

Ascot 17:35 
Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race)
£55000.00 added, 4yo plus, 2m 5f 159y, Class 2

..Talking about stayers..we round off the Royal Meeting with a mega staying race 2m5f which will truly take some getting in this ground and after the way it won on tues i simply have to have SIMENON on my side a stayer thru n thru he can destroy most of these and looks like a good un to finish on.
Him apart i also like Overturn who is all guts and should be bang there along with KANGAROO COURT who i know for a fact is expected to run a big race and is going there for the win and @ 50.0 is a great EW bet.

So there we are another tough ol day but another full of class and it should be a very entertaining day , good luck all , whatever you do , enjoy and keep smiling.
Result:1stSimenon (IRE)11/4fav 
2ndShahwardi (FR)33/1 
3rdRomeo Montague66/1 


in the 15:40 @ Newmarket i cannot see Tioman Pearl racing to the same level with an extra 18lb on its back so i will have to lay this and in the 16:15 Marco Botti has his first runner from new client(S) Magnier, Tabor and Smith ( circa: Ao'brien fame ) YELLOW MOUNTAIN and this son of Danehill Dancer should be watched in the betting as i certainly feel an EW bet is in order , currently 7.6 this is well worth a nibble.
Over at Redcar i feel Finaz in the first is well worth taking on as there are a couple of debutants who i believe could be a grade better including Navajo Nights and Heliconia plus the once raced Shrewd and in the 15:20 REDVERS looks nailed on for a place after a string of consistent performances.
And finally at AYR Bosun Breeze looks good for the Place in the 13:55 and in the 15:30 REEM STAR looks a solid EW after a fair run over 1m6f lto and should be staying on when others have weakened away....
1.Tioman Pearl = Unplaced
2.Yellow Mountain = 3rd
3.Finaz = Unplaced
4.Redvers = 3rd
5.Bosun Breeze = 1st
6.Reem Star = 1st

= 6/6 on the above = mega booms ;-))

Enjoy and GL. 

Friday, 22 June 2012

Wednesday, 20 June 2012

Royal Ascot - Day 2


*To start Day 2 off we have a ridic tough Jersey stakes , a 7f charge with 26 runners...this really is Magic Pin time...,The three i like the most here are Firstly VALBCHEK who is on the horses to follow list , this has won both his two races to date in facile fashion and looks like a step up in trip is readily needed , well thought off  and good looking this athletic sort will rise to the top but will it start today? , Secondly i really quite like SENTARIL a highly regarded sort from the Haggas yard that has also won both his two starts with the greatest of ease , this will have no problem with being upped in grade or trip and could prove to be a bit special , and finally i like TELWAAR a strapping son of Haffad that won the European Free Hcap in great style before getting run of his legs in France and with Soumillon taking the ride i fancy this to go well at a decent price ( currently 40.0 but i think will go higher ).

*Next up is a strong renewal of the Windsor Forest Stakes over 1m for the older generation and here we have a horse i like very much CHACHAMAIDEE who came 2nd in this race last year after looking the winner with just 1f to go and getting nailed late by Lolly for Dolly  and after an effortless victory fto this campaign i expect her to be ridden up with the pace and forge on a bit later so she cant get distracted, this is not say to say she is a shoo in mind as she faces some stiff competition most notably EMULOUS from D Weld ( IRE ) and NAHRAIN from the Varian stable with the latter winning 4 or her 5 races last term including the Prix de L'Opera and was also a superb 2nd in the Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly And Mare Turf , so she has some rock solid form , this will be a very high quality race and one to saviour.

*The Prince of Wales Stakes now and its over 1m2f and is again for the older generation and here we also have my LOTD in SO YOU THINK currently at 1.95 in a very lop sided market this has to be taken on..why??.. well firstly all the field can improve on what they have shown , they all have potential to run a big race, they all have past or current form to figure and the 2 times that SYT has run here at Ascot it has been beaten and both times it was long odds on , Yes if SYT runs to the very best of his ability and form he should win this but im fucked im taking 1.95 on a what if when there are so many other possibilities in the field , if it wins i will take it like Debbie from Dallas...all over the chin.
So what do i think can win well i will highlight 3 as usual that i personally feel have a chance against the hot fav , Firstly we have CARLTON HOUSE  the queens horse and last years Derby placer a horse that just doesnt quite stay 1m4f but does enjoy every bit of 1m2f which he showed when easily winning the Brigadier Gerard stakes at Sandown lto beating Sagramor and Hunters Light with great ease this could be his true trip and he could easily rule at this trip today will be a true test of his potential and he should show that hes up to it , Secondly , we have RELIABLE MAN who if he can recapture the form when winning the Prix Niel is not without a chance and Finally we have the Highly rated and unbeaten FARHH a horse with any amount of potential and improvement although this is a big jump in class , in all honesty an on song SYT wins but at odds on im happy to take this jolly on..good luck.

*Now its the Royal Hunt Cup and its one of the most competitive 1m h'caps of the flat racing season and this is no different with the full 30 runners lining up i suggest you place a mask over your eyes , get someone to pass you a pin ( preferably a magic one ) and whoosh ..bang it down and see what happens!!....

*Next we have the Queen Mary Stakes a 5f dash for those imo just rated below the best but thats not to say these are poor , far from it in fact this looks a good renewal with quite a few nice sorts running as you would expect and with Baileys Jubilee disappointing last twice i will rather regrettably be over looking that...The quickest three i have on my speed ratings are LADY PHIL , SATUMA and GRAPHIC GUEST and i will be using my speed ratings as a guide in this race as i have no real personal views.

*And finally in the " getting out " Stakes we have a 1m fillies listed hcap which is full of ifs buts and maybe's...oh my , what a way to finish the card...and again unfortunately i dont have any real view or perspective on this race so my selections will be mainly based on personal ratings .

Monday, 18 June 2012


Yes it is that time of year , for me its my second favourite meeting of the year ( behind Glorious Goodwood which i hold special due to memories ) and simply fantastic week of racing *Please be kind weather* where a host of big names will be on show , a selection of special 2 yr olds wanting to cement there names in the pantheon of greatness and seal there place at the head of the markets for next years classics , Millions of Pounds in Prize money and some very odd looking hats ;-)....yes yes yes Royal Ascot is everything that any true Flat racing lover could want for and more , obviously both Frankel and Black Caviar are the two biggest names on show and the double special already reported on them should be taken but everyday there will be something special on show even if we haven't seen it yet!!.....So to get ahead i am going to be previewing each days card 1 day ahead but the finalised version may suffer alterations if there are any non runners or dramatic alterations in the weather etc....So without further ado lets move on.....

**********************ROYAL ASCOT**************************

BACK - FRANKEL - ( NAP ) - 1st @ 1.12
EW - 
*Frankel WILL NOT LOSE simple!!....the only other horse fit to be along side him is Excelebration ( 2nd ) and he has thrashed this 5 or 6 times now including lto...this is FREE MONEY....lump on everything you can find!!.

BACK - BATED BREATH - 2nd @ 6.38
OUTSIDER - SOLE POWER - 3rd @ 10.5
*Now we have the hugely competitive KINGS STAND STAKES a frenetic 5f sprint which is super interesting for a number of reasons , Firstly we have STONE OF FOLCA a horse that as a 2yr old held any amount of promise after running some great and quick races with his best effort probably being a nk 2nd to Zebedee in 0.58 which was a great run however he never really progressed from that and after winning his maiden at 1/8 he regressed which was disappointing but and this is a big but , he won lto in a eye watering 0.53 breaking just about every sprint record there is in the Epsom Investec Dash over 5f against a high quality field he was simply stunning and the time was just amazing , this was the sort of race and performance i always knew he had but was reluctant to hoping and fingers crossed he has developed a new love for his art and finally understands what is required but as we all know with sprinters they by and large are not the most resolute nor consistent of beasts!! but with an early show of 38.0/50.0 i simply cannot resist and will some of this and will re-check the market again tmrw...but that price screams " go on i dare ya!!"....
Secondly we have BATED BREATH who is for me the class in this race and has swerved the Jubilee stakes for this as Roger thinks this is a more realistic option as they want wins and black type to enhance its breeding value but tbf it does also have some rock solid form in the locker and its lto win was completed in a very quick time indeed and this is probably the most likeliest winner although my one reservation is that personally i feel its better over 6f , i may be wrong or it may be equally as good over both  but i just feel at 5f its worth taking on.
Thirdly we have a sprinter who i love and i think is probably as good as a sprinter as we have seen anywhere for a good number of years and is also very consistent and that is SOLE POWER a NK 2nd behind Bated Breath lto and running on strongly this is sure to run another huge race and will be in my mixed bag of bets and i will personally be lumping the place as many options and at 10.5 is just the right side of good...and Finally we have Ortensia the Aussie sprinter and a quick one at that as are most of there's , this should not be underestimated as they have proven time and again before  they know how to produce winning sprinters but at 6.4 is a LAY for me as i think the UK and Ireland have enough ammo to attack with.

*Now we have the St James Palace stakes over 1m and a race that holds many a cognitive form line and the strongest is obviously through POWER which won the Irish 2000 guineas so well , this looks a very useful animal which travels well and can quicken and is proven and will take all the beating.
Against it i would probably say COGITO is a lively alternative ( 24.0 ) and is improving fast which he showed when beating Stipulate and Tales of Grimm lto a very tidy performance and one that merits the upmost respect.
The remainder are in the main full of pre season wonder horses, horses of hyperbole and ruined reputations namely , Born to Sea , Most Improved , Wrote and Hermival ( 1st ,2nd and 4th lol )none of which i can see improving enough to trouble the judge so maybe a outsider could be of interest to place or surprise and i would suggest either Foxtrot Romeo or The Nile both of whom could easily improve enough to get involved and have shown that they have trained on and will be ready for a race and a fight and at 16 & 18.5 are big enough for interest.

EW - N/A - 
*Now its a typically tough and big field Coventry Stakes over 6f but a race that interests me greatly as it includes a 2yr old that imo is not only the best i have seen this year but probably the best i have seen in a good few years , yes that includes Frankel et al!!...the horse that is SIR PRANCEALOT is imo simply stunning , it moves with proper full blown class , can quicken , can drop in or out and has any amount of ability i feel you will today witness something a bit special.
I dont really want to discuss anything else but if i had to nominate a serious challenger i would probably say for saver reasons i would go with Dawn Approach who has shown a high level of consistency and has enough in the locker to make it interesting , but personally for me this race is all about Sir Prancealot.

*Now we settle into something more sedate haha and its the 2m4f marathon trip that is the Ascot Stakes and a race that has quite often chucked up a few surprise winners and big prices.
Last years winner VEILED  is the obvious place to start sent out by master NH trainer Nicky Henderson who is also a dab hand with his NHF runners and has had a fair bit of success on the flat and you can g'tee that this will be primed for a big run ( Spoke to Hendo JNR regarding this and they feel it can win again, it is fit and ready to go they will have no complaints ) so is high on my list of candidates.
The two against it i like are Dark Ranger and Al Khanwaneej who both look like decent stayers who are in fine form and will be up to getting this trip , interesting race but not one for the purists.

*Finally we end day 1 with the super sprint that is the Windsor Castle stakes a race for 2yr old only and LYRIC ACE is an outstanding horse to have running for you in the getting out stakes this simply has speed to burn moves very well and is all pace and is one i like very much....Hannon what a lucky man.
The interesting runner would be Ajmany a debutant from Cumani and Ridden by friend Fallon this must be showing something special at home to suggest that this is acceptable and could be anything at a price and Finally Pay Freeze who destroyed the field in his maiden and again is open to any amount of improvement...great Finale!! 

So thats Day 1 covered and what a fantastic day it looks ;-))))...
A small mention to the Euro's where i feel a Spain V Croatia DRAW is nailed on , neither will want to commit as i believe they will both go through with a draw under the new h2h ruling goal difference wont make any difference ( i think ive got that right? ) on that basis a draw looks nailed on and Italy to WIN looks a banker a DRAW/Italy WIN double looks the play to me.

Ok im off to get ready as im off out this afternoon as i have promised my friend Marc i would support him in his quest ..the quest of watching JAWS at the Cinema as he doesnt want to go alone omg i cannot believe i am going!!...the things i do for friendship!!....i will be getting in some light trading tonight however to add some ammo to my Ascot war chest so see ya later, if not have a great day and i look forward to seeing everyone tmrw , be happy, stay lucky, keep smiling and Michael....i hope Israel is treating you kindly buddy ;-))..ttfn x


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