Saturday, 2 June 2012

EPSOM DERBY

Yes its that time already...wow!!..how time flies by , it feels like only 5mins ago i was hurraring and heralding the start of the new flat season and already its June.....where does it all go?!.
So we move onto today and a grandiose day it is , its DERBY DAY , the richest race to be run in the UK and we have the lowest priced fav for probably 50 years ( not sure on exact date but im thinking around the 50's ) and currently 1.67 , i will be taking this on for sure!.for me although it has " winner " written all over it it is also one of the best lays of the year...exciting times.
Only Nabbed 3 winners on yesterday card but it was enough to secure another profit wielding day and the lays were thankfully very good a tiny tweak and it all comes together...can we do as good today?? , for a start of i will be " out of the office " till around 14:30 as im playing Tennis against Sledge this afternoon , so i will be taking a very leisurely approach to the trading today this is also in part to the fact that i am now smashing it as much as i can Mon-Fri and looking at having the weekends off...People may say " your crazy , thats the busiest part of the week "...Busy doesnt bother me tho , i can make as much money on a shitty Monday as i can on a 10 card Bank Holiday...its all relative as i work to a target and that can be met on a single card and i want to restore some semblance of structure to my life by treating my working week as just that and not being locked away in my office for 12 hours a day , 7 days a week...i think the new way is the best way , the week ends are my playtime...
Ok then as its Derby day it would be Folly not to produce a card for today , so here goes....

**************************EPSOM*****************************

RACE 1
BACK - WROTHAM HEATH - 1st @ 6.60
EW - OPEN WATER -
OUTSIDER - FENNELL BAY -
*A brilliantly tough start to the day with a 1m2f  Hcap where we see quite a large gap in weights but not ability from top to bottom , the whole field is made up of Improvers , potential and winners with a dash of class sprinkled on most so as you can imagine this is going to be very tough nailing some profit from this....Let me start with WROTHAM HEATH a horse bred in the purple and looked to have the world at his feet but has been slightly disappointing  thus far but i do feel his stamina was stretched lto and he showed he doesnt stay 1mf , this drop back to 1m2f will be ideal as he was tanking at this point in his last race and has to be given another chance with the Cecil team starting to fire out the winners and at 8.8 looks very tasty indeed and will be my main EW bet in this.
Nailing anything else is proving rather difficult but i do feel with some race fitness tucked away Open Water could well for the delightful Hayley Turner along with the nicely treated Fennell Bay.
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RACE 2
BACK - EUXTON HALL -
EW - HEAVY METAL - 2nd @ 4.20
OUTSIDER - LIBER - 3rd @ 6.42
*Now its the turn of the 2yr olds to shine and we have a small field ( 7 runners remain ) 6f stakes race but one that is super tight and none can be confidently ruled out , the three selections have been selected on the speed ratings i have issued for this race , analysis not required , there will be nothing in this.
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RACE 3
BACK - ST NICHOLAS ABBEY - 1st @ 1.92
EW - RED CADEAUX - 2nd @ 11.50
OUTSIDER - MASKED MARVEL - ( 3rd @ 10.50 )
*Coronation Cup time and will St Nick get another great losing ride , probs not as the Irish racing Mafia cant control this and this will be a true run race and in all honesty St Nick should win this as easily as he likes , that said i am a fan od Red Cadeaux , Masked Marvel is not without ability as he showed when winning last years St Leger and Beaten Up from Cumani should improve on his opening run at Meydan...Will i be taking the 1.64 on St Nicholas Abbey.....Not a chance!!!....THE BET in this race for me is a PLACE DUTCH on Red Cadeaux and Masked Marvel at 3.5 & 4.4 , ok its only paying top 2 , or rather 1 spot as St Nick is expected to win but you have 2 runners trying to beat beaten up and i like my chances , i think this is a great bet.
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RACE 4 ( pays top 4 )
BACK - CATFISH - 3rd @ 9.77
EW - TAAJUB - 4th @ 50.0
OUTSIDER - CAPTAIN DUNNE -
*And it just doesnt get any easier as we now have the " DASH " over the 5f and its a big field which only a PIN will help you find the winner....
This again is a race where i look to my core speed ratings and the selections i will be having have been selected on the adjusted ratings i have issued.
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RACE 5 *Epsom Downs 16:00 
Investec Derby (Group 1)
£1325000.00 added, 3yo only, 1m 4f 10y, Class 1*
BACK - CAMELOT - 1st @  1.87
EW - THOUGHT WORTHY - ( 4th @ 22.81 )
OUTSIDER - MAIN SEQUENCE - 2nd @ 13.53
*Now its time for the BIG one the Derby and this all revolves around Camelot who in essence is the winner and has been backed accordingly however 1.67 for a horse that has yet to prove it actually stays is mighty short and i will like the Oaks Yesterday be looking to take it on Lets look at the runners...

1.CAMELOT - Likely winner that carries a big reputation after being super hyped through the winter , won the 2000 Guineas a shade cosily after a lot of people thought he had left it too late!....he does look like the sort that would enjoy the step up but to what degree? , Breeding says yes but i just cannot have it at those odds....Lay for me at this price and take it on the chin if as expected it wins...

2.THOUGHT WORTHY - This is my Idea of the winner , Beat a brilliant Yardstick in Noble Mission over 1m2f and wasnt for stopping which can be backed up thru breeding as his half brother is St Leger winner Lucarno , this will get every yard of the trip , will handle the course , likes the ground and has Buick riding who as he showed yesterday knows how to ride Epsom as well as anybody and at 23.0 is an outstanding EW selection against the fav.

3.BONFIRE - Another hyped " super " horse but this did go some way to justifying the black type and the plethora of printed words when winning the Dante and is another that should be bang there for most although i am still hesitant as to whether or not this truly stays , i feel this will probably be 4th or 5th.

4.ASTROLOGY - Another from the AOB conveyor belt of class and this won its trial the DEE stakes by 11 lengths but beat little of note although i really liked the way it run and i do feel this will stay but will have to go under the banner of " Dark Horse " as i just dont know what to make of it just now and will write off some parts of form , could ? run a big race but for now this will hold only a watching brief.

5.RUGGED CROSS - Was behind Thought Worthy lto and i see no reason at all for any form reversals , thats not to say this couldnt do a " Terimon " and sneak a place at huge odds.... just highly unlikely.

6.MINIMISE RISK - Slightly out of his depth here and will not turn the form of his running behind Mickdaam , no hoper for me.

7.MICKDAAM - This is a horse i love to bits and it has run some great races but i do feel it is exposed enough now to suggest this wont be winning today but i would not be surprised to see this battle its way into 3rd.....

8.MAIN SEQUENCE - Was just a lowly Hcapper last year but has improved massively over the last year and this step up to the big leagues is well in order and won cosily enough lto to suggest there is a lot more to come from this , could easily make the frame , could possibly win , i wouldnt be surprised.

9.CAVALEIRO - Sorry Hayley but this has no chance at all....


CONCLUSION: Camelot is the likely winner based on hype and betting but i will gladly be taking this on and i will be doing so with THOUGHT WORTHY & MAIN SEQUENCE EW , i will also be laying the fav  and happy to take the loss shud it win.
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RACE 6 ( Pays top 4 )
BACK - COMMUNICATOR - 4th @ 5.30
EW - QUIZ MISTRESS -
OUTSIDER - LAYLINE -
* Very much after the lord mayors show we have another 1m4f Hcap with a variety of shudda cudda wuddas on show and i will not tolerate anything here that has yet to win over the distance which somewhat narrows the field right down...we now have just 9 runners that interest me for this , now i only want horses that have already run this season...that gets rid of another 4 leaving just 5 now....the two bottom weights i dont feel will quite good enough so we have a natural selection of three....
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RACE 7 ( Pays top 4 )
BACK - SWISS CROSS - 4th @ 29.69
EW - PISCEAN -
OUTSIDER - LUI REI - 1st @ 11.27
*And finally a 6f Cavalry Charge as the getting out stakes....no analysis here just using my Magic Pin...
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