Saturday, 23 June 2012

Morning All..

Right , had a little break to clear my head after a tough ol week and now feeling in the mood to win , today we have 4 good looking albeit tough cards from Ayr, HQ , R Ascot and Redcar and i think we should honour the great BLACK CAVIAR by doing a lite card for Royal Ascot.
For those of you that have been asleep for the past year and just awoken today BLACK CAVIAR is an Australian sprinter which will destroy ours today and everyday over 5/6f ( no chance he will race Frankel ) but at 1/5 doesnt really represent much of a betting proposition however as advised on Monday the enhanced double at EVEN'S ( with Ladbrokes ) for a Frankel/Black Caviar double is now looking even better ;-) .
So lets take a run thru todays races at Royal Ascot.....

Ascot 14:30 
Chesham Stakes (Listed)
£55000.00 added, 2yo only, 7f, Class 1..
Now bearing in mind i think all the races today will suffer from a form perspective due to the state of the ground i may get a bit adventurous ( then again , maybe not ).
Straight away i will say i have backed THA'IR in this , i was really taken by its run lto winning ( beating Bircham who then won nto ) by 4 1/2L and did it with the minimal of fuss , this wont mind the ground , wont mind any draw as he can make his own pace and could be that little bit special.
Of the remainder i think Jalaa or Lovely Pass are worth a second look as both should be in the mix , the three Arab runners mentioned i think are or at least should be different class and should have this between them and at 4.8 , 7.8 and 12.0 i think the dutch is a fair bet.
Move to Strike is an Interesting runner from the Bolger's and it won its last race by 9L in very soft ground so this wont be a problem but i think 2.72 is way too short and with a good few decent sorts against is well worth taking on , i for one will be Laying this.
Pos.Dr.Dist.HorseWtJockeyTrainerAgeSP
17Tha'ir (IRE)9-3L DettoriSaeed bin Suroor29/2
opened 11/2 £5000-£900 £5000-£1000 Each Way
23Cruck Realta8-12Matthew DaviesM R Channon233/1
32nkLovely Pass (IRE)8-12S De SousaM Al Zarooni211/1
opened 9/1

Ascot 15:05 
Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2)
£200000.00 added, 4yo plus, 1m 4f, Class 1..
This looks like an exceptional renewal of this race and there are a host with outstanding chances most notably SEA MOON who is a superb athlete and with some superb form including an excellent 2nd in the breeders cup turf and a facile 8l victory in the Great Voltiguer this for me is the winner and at 4.7  is my EW selection.
However lining up against are a host of stars waiting to have a crack including Dunaden who if he can reproduce its form from the Melbourne Cup or Hong Kong Vase would give them all something to think about and will battle right to the line.
of the other contenders you also have Aiken which is unbeaten in 6 but faces his toughest task by a long way so far and Memphis Tennessee which is looking to kick start its stuttering career and did little wrong when winning the Ormonde Stakes but like Aiken will have to Improve just to get involved and will have to run way above anything its done previously to win.
I will be Laying Aiken in this as i just cant see it improving enough to win , 3rd is probably the best this will achieve imo.
I dont feel you can completely rule out Red Cadeaux tho either and this could easily snatch a place and a dutch place along with Dunaden is also a cracking bet with them both at 2.5....
Result:1stSea Moon3/1fav
2ndDunaden (FR)9/2
3rdRed Cadeaux9/1

Ascot 15:45 
Diamond Jubilee Stakes (British Champions Series & Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1)
£500000.00 added, 3yo plus, 6f, Class 1..
Here we are , the race we have all been waiting for and the horse we have all been salivating at to watch for real BLACK CAVIAR , this on all known form should win this as easy as it likes and at 1/5 is priced to do so...a MAX mortgage LUMP is a good way to " buy " some money.
For the Value seekers and those wanting to take it on i would say this , Firstly dont back anything to beat it , if your that way inclined then quite simply just Lay the Fav, and Secondly if your hunting a value bet from the race then i would advise a Place Only bet and a couple that offer some good value are ES QUE LOVE @ 340.0 ( 16.5 for a place ) and JIMMY STYLES @ 430 ( 17 for a place ) both are out n out speed merchants and i can imagine that the bigger guns like Society Rock, Moonlight Cloud and Krypton Factor could burn out trying to facilitate a charge against the fav and the light weights like those mentioned could be running for a place , of course this is all just me theorising in trying to look for a value alternative to betting the fav, but this is me , the same me that Backed TERIMON EW @ 1000/1 for the Derby when it ran 2nd to the mighty NASHWAN...so sometimes " anything " is possible ;-).
Pos.Dr.Dist.HorseWtJockeyTrainerAgeSP
115Black Caviar (AUS)9-1L NolenP Moody61/6 f
touched 1/5 £1000-£4500 £20000-£100000 £7000-£35000 £5000-£25000 £2000-£10000 (x8) £1000-£5000 £2000-£11000 £1000-£5500 (x2) £10000-£60000 (x3) £5000-£40000 (x3) £3000-£18000 £2000-£12000 £1000-£6000 (x10) £2000-£14000 £1000-£7000 (x2) £2000-£16000 £1000-£8000
25hdMoonlight Cloud9-1T JarnetF Head45/1
opened 11/2
311nkRestiadargent (FR)8-8M GuyonH A Pantall340/1
touched 50/1

Ascot 16:25 
Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
£125000.00 added, 3yo plus, 6f, Class 2..
Now its the Cavalry Charge that is the Wokingham and all 26 line up making this a punters nightmare.

They don't come much tougher than the Wokingham Handicap but I must have a sadistic side as it's one of my favourite races of the year.
James Fanshawe was the winning trainer in 2011 and there's every chance he could retain the trophy as MACS POWER looks to hold solid claims at 15/1.
You have to go back 20 months for the last time he won a race but he's always knocking on the door in these big handicaps which is why his rating remains around the 100 mark.
The handicapper is just beginning to relax him a little and he looks primed to strike soon judging by his last run where he met trouble in-running a furlong out but still finished a close enough third.
That was further evidence he can go well with cut in the ground and with Kieren Fallon back on board on Saturday he can finally land the big handicap pot he's always threatened to.
He's drawn in 31 and Lui Rei is also worth considering from his high draw as he's got more to offer over six furlongs and there aren't many better trainers of sprinters than Robert Cowell in my opinion.
However, I haven't got the draw right all week and I want to back one from the low numbers too, with New Planet a big price at 33/1 if you forgive his York run.
I want to be with one in better form though and the horse I like most at the prices is COLONEL MAK at 25s.
He goes off a career-high mark but that's because he's never been in better form and he's another horse who just thrives in these big-field handicaps over six furlongs.
He's still on a competitive mark judging by his latest close third at Newmarket and at 25/1 I think his winning chances have been underestimated.
Pos.Dr.Dist.HorseWtJockeyTrainerAgeSP
115Dandy Boy (ITY)9-8P DobbsD Marnane633/1
touched 50/1 £10000-£200 Each Way £5000-£100 Each Way £6600-£200 Each Way (x2)
223Waffle (IRE)9-2F M BerryT D Barron611/1
316½Hawkeyethenoo (IRE)9-4G LeeJ S Goldie620/1
opened 25/1
46Morache Music9-7S SandersP J Makin420/1
511Dungannon8-13William BuickA M Balding533/1

Ascot 17:00 
Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap
£70000.00 added, 3yo plus, 1m 4f, Class 2..
This is probably the toughest race of the day as its a field of battle hardened veterans that all have bits of form , most are entitled to a run and half the field can win so where we do we go for the winner?....
Well for starters i will be steering clear of the favs and big name yards as i feel this will be the time for the little man to shine and i think we should start with STAND TO REASON from Magnusson and CILL RAILAIG from Hughie Morrison both of which should run very respectable races and have enough ability to surprise , then there is Johnston which is a stable i can never get right but we all know he likes his stayers , they all stay in general and anything can happen with his , the only advice i will give regarding his runners are Back Win and Place Lay as they quite often win easy or do nothing.... 
Weighed In:1stCamborne11/2favFull Result  
2ndHammerfest8/1 
3rdHarrison's Cave12/1 
4thAlkimos (IRE)20/1 

Ascot 17:35 
Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race)
£55000.00 added, 4yo plus, 2m 5f 159y, Class 2

..Talking about stayers..we round off the Royal Meeting with a mega staying race 2m5f which will truly take some getting in this ground and after the way it won on tues i simply have to have SIMENON on my side a stayer thru n thru he can destroy most of these and looks like a good un to finish on.
Him apart i also like Overturn who is all guts and should be bang there along with KANGAROO COURT who i know for a fact is expected to run a big race and is going there for the win and @ 50.0 is a great EW bet.

So there we are another tough ol day but another full of class and it should be a very entertaining day , good luck all , whatever you do , enjoy and keep smiling.
Result:1stSimenon (IRE)11/4fav 
2ndShahwardi (FR)33/1 
3rdRomeo Montague66/1 

________________________________________

Elsewhere......
in the 15:40 @ Newmarket i cannot see Tioman Pearl racing to the same level with an extra 18lb on its back so i will have to lay this and in the 16:15 Marco Botti has his first runner from new client(S) Magnier, Tabor and Smith ( circa: Ao'brien fame ) YELLOW MOUNTAIN and this son of Danehill Dancer should be watched in the betting as i certainly feel an EW bet is in order , currently 7.6 this is well worth a nibble.
Over at Redcar i feel Finaz in the first is well worth taking on as there are a couple of debutants who i believe could be a grade better including Navajo Nights and Heliconia plus the once raced Shrewd and in the 15:20 REDVERS looks nailed on for a place after a string of consistent performances.
And finally at AYR Bosun Breeze looks good for the Place in the 13:55 and in the 15:30 REEM STAR looks a solid EW after a fair run over 1m6f lto and should be staying on when others have weakened away....
1.Tioman Pearl = Unplaced
2.Yellow Mountain = 3rd
3.Finaz = Unplaced
4.Redvers = 3rd
5.Bosun Breeze = 1st
6.Reem Star = 1st


= 6/6 on the above = mega booms ;-))

Enjoy and GL. 

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