Cant really sleep so ive trawling thru some cards and data and more boring shizzle drizzle , ive decided for tmrw i will have three races , all will be Silver rated or Gold and i will have 3 bets on these as i write i still havent decided what i will do but will know by the time i have finished....
Race 1
..The horse in question is LASTKINGOFSCOTLAND , a horse that has had a busy year ( last calender ) and is a trier is running in this apprentice race with arguably the best rider , is running over his best trip and wasnt beaten far last time out , the make up of this race and the durge in opposition lead me to believe that this could and should see him back in the winners enclosure , he has yet to win here but has had 3 runs and come 3rd each time and in higher grade/better quality races i think this is a gift of an EW bet , will be very surprised if this doesnt place , imo KT will steer this home but he has to utilise the horses stamina as it likes to run on...1st @ 5.30 / 2.05
RACE 2
..A race that interests me greatly even tho like the other for today they are outside of my maidens only remit ( my niche ) , the horse i will be backing here is NEAR GERMANY , an old stager yes but one in which a lot of ability is prevalent and not that many miles on the clock , last time out it ran over hurdles opened up at 14/1 was backed very heavily into 6/1( hasnt had a run for three years!! ) suggesting they expected a win that day and was 1 length clear in front when it fell at the last !! , so i think that maybe today they could be on a small recovery mission ( no hurdles to jump ) in a modest contest against minor opposition and with minor prize money on offer this will be a stable gamble im sure , this opened up at 7.2 ( £2 backed ) and is now trading at a decent looking 20.0 this looks very attractive and a trade option here also looks good...NON-RUNNER
RACE 3
...There are a couple of potential improvers in this race by the name of Henry Clay and Angel Gabrial , now these two could both improve and run good races and even possibly win however Henry Clay has been weakening in his races come the final 150yrds and looks vulnerable to anything with a finishing kick and Angel Gabrial ran well in its maiden but then only about 3 lengths covered the first 9 home and the form has not really been franked since so i will hold a waiting brief on that one, the one i am interested in here is DUBWAWI CHEETAH from the Fahey yard , Sheik Mohammed Bin Maktoum doesnt send many to the northern trainers and the ones he does warrant some respect , on breeding it looks like it could be a fair sort , i am guessing to a degree here as i would prefer to see it in the paddock before making my brief but i will stick my neck out and say this could run a good race and will have enough about her ( bay filly ) to give the main 2 something to worry about and at its current 6.8 looks the value call for ew, place or trading.- RESULT : Where do we start?? , FIRSTLY IT GOT BACKED INTO 4.0 pre off then hit a low of 2.78 , then drifted and then ran on , with henry clay winning and just outstaying mine into 2nd this will win a race or two thats for sure, oh so nearly today but cant complain, 2nd will do.- 2nd @ 11/4
BET CONCLUSION: Considering their prices and that my new year roll is quite in profit , i will be having A £25 EW PATENT ( £350 ) and a £150 LAY on GEORGEBERNARDSHAW ( UNPLACED ) in the 14:55 Wolverhampton ( to offset some of the cost ) , i will also be leaving in 3 x £100 in running lays @ 1.08.
I will be around most of the day should there be any updates, if anyone wants to discuss any races feel free to email me , have a great breakfast , ttfn ( G lets hope the waters dont break just yet ;-@@ )...
UPDATE:Potential returns ( est ) , if DUBWAI CHEETAH gets a place my main bet returns..
..and if it wins...
....
So fingers crossed, but as all my lays have been great today is already fully expensed and nicely in profit....im starting to feel the lurve ;-)
BOOOOOOM ! ;-)
Race 1
Wolverhampton 14:25
Bet At Blue Square Apprentice Handicap
£2500.00 added, 4yo plus, 7f 32y, Class 6
..The horse in question is LASTKINGOFSCOTLAND , a horse that has had a busy year ( last calender ) and is a trier is running in this apprentice race with arguably the best rider , is running over his best trip and wasnt beaten far last time out , the make up of this race and the durge in opposition lead me to believe that this could and should see him back in the winners enclosure , he has yet to win here but has had 3 runs and come 3rd each time and in higher grade/better quality races i think this is a gift of an EW bet , will be very surprised if this doesnt place , imo KT will steer this home but he has to utilise the horses stamina as it likes to run on...1st @ 5.30 / 2.05
RACE 2
Wolverhampton 15:55
Sponsor A Race By Calling 01902 390000 Handicap
£2500.00 added, 4yo plus, 1m 4f 50y, Class 6
..A race that interests me greatly even tho like the other for today they are outside of my maidens only remit ( my niche ) , the horse i will be backing here is NEAR GERMANY , an old stager yes but one in which a lot of ability is prevalent and not that many miles on the clock , last time out it ran over hurdles opened up at 14/1 was backed very heavily into 6/1( hasnt had a run for three years!! ) suggesting they expected a win that day and was 1 length clear in front when it fell at the last !! , so i think that maybe today they could be on a small recovery mission ( no hurdles to jump ) in a modest contest against minor opposition and with minor prize money on offer this will be a stable gamble im sure , this opened up at 7.2 ( £2 backed ) and is now trading at a decent looking 20.0 this looks very attractive and a trade option here also looks good...NON-RUNNER
RACE 3
Wolverhampton 16:55
Hotel & Conferencing At Wolverhampton Maiden Stakes
£3500.00 added, 3yo only, 7f 32y, Class 5
Winner £2264 2nd £674 3rd £337 4th £168
...There are a couple of potential improvers in this race by the name of Henry Clay and Angel Gabrial , now these two could both improve and run good races and even possibly win however Henry Clay has been weakening in his races come the final 150yrds and looks vulnerable to anything with a finishing kick and Angel Gabrial ran well in its maiden but then only about 3 lengths covered the first 9 home and the form has not really been franked since so i will hold a waiting brief on that one, the one i am interested in here is DUBWAWI CHEETAH from the Fahey yard , Sheik Mohammed Bin Maktoum doesnt send many to the northern trainers and the ones he does warrant some respect , on breeding it looks like it could be a fair sort , i am guessing to a degree here as i would prefer to see it in the paddock before making my brief but i will stick my neck out and say this could run a good race and will have enough about her ( bay filly ) to give the main 2 something to worry about and at its current 6.8 looks the value call for ew, place or trading.- RESULT : Where do we start?? , FIRSTLY IT GOT BACKED INTO 4.0 pre off then hit a low of 2.78 , then drifted and then ran on , with henry clay winning and just outstaying mine into 2nd this will win a race or two thats for sure, oh so nearly today but cant complain, 2nd will do.- 2nd @ 11/4
BET CONCLUSION: Considering their prices and that my new year roll is quite in profit , i will be having A £25 EW PATENT ( £350 ) and a £150 LAY on GEORGEBERNARDSHAW ( UNPLACED ) in the 14:55 Wolverhampton ( to offset some of the cost ) , i will also be leaving in 3 x £100 in running lays @ 1.08.
I will be around most of the day should there be any updates, if anyone wants to discuss any races feel free to email me , have a great breakfast , ttfn ( G lets hope the waters dont break just yet ;-@@ )...
UPDATE:Potential returns ( est ) , if DUBWAI CHEETAH gets a place my main bet returns..
Calculated Amounts
..and if it wins...
- Total Return
- 2,866.75
- Total Profit
- 2,516.75
....
So fingers crossed, but as all my lays have been great today is already fully expensed and nicely in profit....im starting to feel the lurve ;-)
BOOOOOOM ! ;-)
Loadsa money for henry ....1/1 to 4/6 at hills
ReplyDeleteAye Trish but Zero value , the market may well prove correct here however its impossible to back at those odds and if it keeps getting shorter i will lay as i know it wont get things all its own way , one of those races where you just have to suck it up , how are ya anyway? , no heard from ya in ages?
ReplyDeletei still think 1.52 ( dubwai cheetah ) to place is better value than 1.8 ( henry clay ) to win...
ReplyDeleteIdol Deputy 15:25 is my 2nd max lay for today.
ReplyDeleteSommersturm in the 15:55 @ 4.7 are they taking the piss?, this should be around 20/1 , the curley factor strikes again , another miserable misled gamble , haha i remember this getting backed into 1/3 and getting stuffed, wouldnt touch it with a shitty stick , but cant really lay it as its a curley horse and you just dont know with that fiddlin twat!!...but if my head was punting on its own today it would be mega max laying that as on all know form it would get beat just leaving its horse box.
ReplyDelete16:25 - Chester Deelyte - a friend of mine owns main share in this ( wayne craig ) as its own by the racing club he operates and when it first ran we went to see it and omg it was as slow as a bag of sand and tbh i cant believe its managed 3 wins , last 2 on bounce now going for the hat trick its 3.0 fav and has to be layed , i have no idea how this managed to win any race and after losing a load on first few runs wayne vowed never to back it again and consequently he feels like shooting both himself and the horse lol ....lay this at 3.0 and trade or stick.
ReplyDelete17:25 - Gabrials King looks very weak and at 1.7 is well worth tking on , i would gladly lay my entire bank on this and look to trade out it will 100% cast iron gteed trade higher between now and the races finish....
ReplyDeleteWell done, Clint. Great start with Lastkingofscotland.
ReplyDeleteQuick Update on post blog selections and summaries , IDOL DEPUTY WAS well beaten so nimps there , SUMMERSTURN was 1st @ 4.whatever however it was traded out at 80.0 in running after black ice reached 1.15 so a typical day at the office for Curley...that is why any race with a curley runner has to be taken with a pinch of salt..do not get involved with that shizzle drizzle.....And CHESTER DEELYTE i layed for quite a bit @ 3.0 and 3.2 and have traded out already pre race at 4.2 for a very healthy profit...so feeling quite chuffed and hoping dubawi cheetah can get a place at least for a decent payday....and cheers Jase ;-)
ReplyDeletechester deelyte drifted from 3.0 to 6.8...i shudda waited..
ReplyDeletenoticing almost identical amounts sold at 4.2 and bought at 6.4...hmm maybe this just market manipulation...??
ReplyDeleteChester deelyte just holds onto 3rd....;-))
ReplyDeleteDUBWAI CHEETAH NOW been backed into 4.2 from 8.6....gotta be a positive ;-)))
ReplyDeleteWell done, Clint. Hoping Dubawi Cheetah would get the win for you but a bold effort after being a touch keen.
ReplyDeleteHenry found his heart at least , but a better start from mine and who knows...
ReplyDelete1 6 Henry Clay 9-3 J Fanning M Johnston 3 4/5 f
made virtually all, ridden 2f out, edged left inside final furlong, stayed on well opened 5/6
2 1 2¼ Dubawi Cheetah (IRE) 8-12 P Hanagan R A Fahey 3 11/4
stumbled start, took keen hold, chased winner until over 6f out, settled 3rd, pushed along and outpaced 2f out, rallied on outside over 1f out, stayed on to 2nd close home