Thursday, 5 January 2012

Its a Tree Blowing Thursday...

Wow what a few days of weather incred , the wind has been mental with a few lashings of rain and its bitter cold...roll on spring!!.
Onto today's racing an uninspiring day tbh however i will be highlighting 7 races today all of which fall into my remit as its quite often the case on these poorer days i make my best profits for the week ;-)...

1.13:00 LUDLOW  - Jubilee Restaurant Juvenile Maiden Hurdle
£3500.00 added, 4yo only, 2m, Class 5
..The first horse to mention is Memorabilia a fair sort on the flat for M Johnston and another useful recruit that's gone into the Ferguson yard , ran well over hurdles 1st time only getting collared after it clattered thru the last fence but then on its 2nd run led them all a merry dance and looked every bit the winner for 1m6f then weakened very quickly and it is this main lack of stamina i find worrying and on that basis i will be taking this on today , but what with, well there are 5 that could potentially take him on and they are..
1.ALAYIR
A fair sort for J Oxx who has won over 1m4f and would be slightly the best of these on the flat although thats not saying much with the top rated being only around 80 but E Williams is a canny trainer and he rarely trains out and out rubbish there are a lot of " ifs " concerning a few of these in this race and the most obv if is " if they stay ", which applies to all 5 mentioned , if this stays i would expect it to be in the shake up but on past form it would be guessing a bit to say whether or not it can win , imo place at best.

2.CORSICAN BOY
This is an interesting runner formerly with R Charlton which won over 7f @ Kempton its overall profile is one that would suggest this switching of codes could be the making of him , was certainly only modest on flat with an undeserved rating of 77 but did look like a horse that would enjoy the change , i think this will certainly be in the mix come the business end.

3.NOVA SAM
This is what you may call the dark horse in the race , superbly bred and purchased by the dragon that is Peter Jones , this has been doing most of its racing in France and is very much the unexposed horse , the betting may tell its own story.

4.ORTHODOX LAD
Another low level Hcapper , watching this race does not give the impression that either jumping or any trips of 2m+ would be ideal , no lay or back with this a watching brief only.

5.FLYING PHOENIX
This has imo the best form on offer ( current ) was full of running at the end of its race and jumped well , looks a horse with some future but at wht level? , it was a fairly weakish race it ran in so not much can be said , personally i am expecting a strong race from this today.

CONCLUSION:A tricky race and one in which im not keen on the Fav ( although @ 4.0 its now 2nd fav ) ....whilst typing thinking 4.0 is tempting but you have to ask yourself why is a horse with this level of form such a big price and drifting? , i only have a BRONZE rated bet for this race and that bet is a PLACE only DUTCH on ALAYIR & FLYING PHOENIX @ 3.2/3.7 i think this is a good value bet and the one in which i feel offers the most value.

RESULT:Firstly a BOOM!! as Flying Phoenix came home a good third and secured me a tasty win , however the " shock " was the winner , not the horse but the price , MEMORABILIA won at an amazing price of 6.4 and also hit and got backed at 250.0 in running, one can only surmise that its last run where it weakened badly was an anomaly as it stayed on like a champion in this race...once again 250.0 in running , unbelievable!! , Corsican boy ran a great race fto only just succumbing by 1/2 length this will be winning races and the 3rd another 3 lengths back has a future, nova sam and orthodox lad both ran well and will improve.

Ludlow 1.00
 1st4 Memorabilia5-1
 2nd2 Corsican Boy11-4 F
 3rd9 Flying Phoenix8-1

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RACE 2.
LUDLOW 15:30 Ludlow Members Club Room Maiden Hurdle
£4000.00 added, 4yo plus, 2m 5f, Class 4
..An interesting race in which PERSIAN SNOW is hot hot fav on the back of a fair run its bumper and an unplaced effort behind graded class steps to freedom , but in a race that offers so much in the way of variables it is impossible to suggest that this is a back bet , it has shown nothing to suggest that its a 1.6 chance , so i think we will look elsewhere for some value.
Taking on the fav is just as tricky with such a dirge of opposition , my two main suggestions would be ZAHIRAH MOON and ENDOFDISCUSSION both would expected to trouble the fav the most but are they backable?, imo at the current prices i would say no and there is no place value.

CONCLUSION : The fav is far to short @ 1.6 and with either the opposition and / or the prices looking weak i offer no alternative , my bet in this race would be a BRONZE rated LAY on PERSIAN SNOW.

RESULT : Zahirah Moon wins and the Fav is UNPLACED...Boom, Boom..
Ludlow 3.30Full Result
 1st16 Zahirah Moon7-2
 2nd4 Changing The Guard20-1
 3rd6 Giveitachance (IRE)100-1

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RACE 3.
LUDLOW 16:00 200 Annual Membership Standard Open NH Flat Race
£3000.00 added, 4-6yo, 2m, Class 6
..This should all be about NEW YEARS EVE , the new Bloomfields recruit should be different class to the rest , costing £120,000 and with a pedigree which screams class i make this my NAP for today.

CONCLUSION: NEW YEARS EVE for me is a GOLD RATED bet £150 @ 1.7

RESULT = 1ST @ 8/13 = WON £105

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RACE 4.
LINGFIELD 13:50 Tandridge Maiden Hurdle
£3000.00 added, 4yo plus, 2m 110y, Class 5
..A race lacking in depth any real quality , this race should be settled by either ASHBRITTLE or Tindaro , with preference for the former and likely favourite , best of these on the flat , likes the soft ground, ran really well lto/fto and this looks an ideal opportunity for him to make his mark , if the fav fluffs his lines i would expect Tindaro to take advantage , the interesting horse here is Marcus Antonius a decent stayer on the flat, a thorough stayer that jumped dreadfully on its debut and if anything looked quite apathetic , at big odds it may well worth having an ew flutter  at 60.0 is worth  a dabble in the trade market.....remember only a couple of things need happen in this race and its bang there, at huge odds its worth  a look.

CONCLUSION: ASHBRITTLE is a SILVER RATED back bet , personally i will be having a nibble on ashbrittle and a trade on marcus antonius.

RESULT:BOOOM!!, ASHBRITTLE WINS!!, but even better was the trade on MARCUS ANTONIUS ( 3rd ) , backed @ 60.0 and layed @ 15.5 , 12.5 and 10.0 good race for me!.

Lingfield 1.50
 1st1 Ashbrittle4-5 F
 2nd3 Charm School9-4
 3rd5 Marcus Antonius25-1

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RACE 5.Sedgefield 12:40 
John Wade Earthworks & Demolition Novices' Hurdle (Qualifier)
£4000.00 added, 4yo plus, 2m 4f, Class 4
..This to me looks like a 2 horse race and i have to be honest i cannot believe that i can get 2.42 on JUDICIARY!! , This with ALL THAT REMAINS are imo the only 2 in this race.

CONCLUSION: This is a GOLD rated DUTCH on JUDICIARY & ALL THAT REMAINS @ 2.42 / 3.15 , great value for this.

RESULT: Well firstly a shock in this first race of the day with Alpha Victor winning @ 40.0! ,however as both of my 2 that i dutched both went low odds on in running ( 1.16 ) i traded out in running for a very nice profit , for those of you that back and dont have that ability im sorry , for everyone else...i hope you did trade out!
Sedgefield 12.40
 1st3 Alpha Victor (IRE)28-1
 2nd7 Saga De Tercey (FR)7-2
 3rd2 All That Remains (IRE)5-4 F

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RACE 6.Sedgefield 15:40 
digibet.com Standard Open NH Flat Race
£2200.00 added, 4-6yo, 2m 1f, Class 6
..a RACE DEVOID OF ANYTHING THAT CAN BRING ABOUT ANY REAL ENTHUSIASM, i would say the Greatrex runner , the likely fav is the most likely winner , but that is only based upon his ability with bumper runners and not the horses breeding plus the opposition looks dire , the only other that looks like it can win is WALKABOUT CREEK.

CONCLUSION: This is a race made for a Dutch and with this my bet here will a GOLD rated DUTCH with Walkabout Creek and Chain Reactor @ 2.7 and 3.9 , £75 on each.

RESULT: Boom Again!!!!...
Sedgefield 3.40
 1st1 Chain Reactor7-1
 2nd6 Walkabout Creek (IRE)8-11 

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RACE 7.Wolverhampton 16:40 
Enjoy The Punters Package Group Offer Median Auction Maiden Stakes
£2500.00 added, 3-5yo, 5f 216y, Class 6
..This race has a warm fav and likely winner in Marcus Augustus however i have had a " word " for a runner here and that is the Fahey Horse HENRY BEE.

CONCLUSION: Going against my own thoughts here and listening to the word , i will be having a SILVER rated EW bet here.

RESULT: BOOM!! that is great!!.3rd @ 6.32
 Wolverhampton 4.40Full Result
 1st8 Pettochside25-1
 2nd7 Marcus Augustus (IRE)4-5 F
 3rd6 Henry Bee9-2

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WOW ...what a day , 7 winning races from 7!!!...Ker fucking ching!!.....

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