Saturday, 7 January 2012

Happy Sat er day .../

Another late Post , tbf today was a mixture of oversleeping and business but hey ho....7 races for me today with the first coming up in just a few mins so i am going to quickly say before editing ..Lingfiled 12:10 JOSAM W/P ( 30/70% ).......( unplaced )

Right thats done now i can move onto the next 6, actually make that 5 as i have missed one of my feature races for today and as i type i am looking at Josam come in from the 4.7 i backed at to 4.2....Interesting , 4.7 is way too big i had this down at 3.2...anyway fingers crossed on the first race hopefully a place at least for a decent start and it appears that i missed a trick there as my flw selection ex oriente looks to have scooped in at a massive price with mine unplaced so not the start i had hoped for but nevermind interesting that the 2 MJ horses came 2nd and 3rd , done nothing , upped in trip staying on...typical MJ horse i had narrowed that 1st race down to three , the winner, Josam and cape safari...EX oriente @ 19.5 is a huge price for a gosden runner on the AW and tbf if you had read the full race card ( published ) it does actually say that its worth a nibble at big odds...but hey fuck it , lets move on...

Right my 5 Feature races for today are...
1.

Sandown Park 13:00 
32Red.com Mares' Hurdle (Listed)

..A 6 runner race in which only 5 have a chance however all five have a case to answer...Hmm , well lets start by saying mistree dancer has no chance what so ever so scratch that fucker...of the others..
1.ANIMATION
Ran well lto , has some fair form and is generally solid but on its lto run has to now give the strawberry one 26 lbs for around 6 lengths which is a ridic amount to over turn , i cannot see this happening....
2.KAFFIE
Won its last races  very easily and is on an upward curve , this horse is shaping with great promise and deserves the rise in class and for a class rise this is as easy as they come , will he be upto it? , thats the 64 million dollar question i will run its usual solid race and has the speed figures to suggest it should be bang there...interesting.
3.KELLS BELLE
This has been rather disappointing ( another word for shit ) this season as i know he likes this ( henderson ) and what else i also know that this 2m4f is not his trip , i tried calling him this morning to get an update on a few of his runners but without success but i did speak to Nicky JNR and he concurred , so i will looking to max lay this.
4.LOVE OF TARA.
Curious that a 10 yr old should be described as an improver however this absolutely destroyed the field lto and looked like a future star , if this was a 4 yr old id be salivating ..but its not , what it does have is bucket loads of ability but you just dont know if its a going day or not...so not are you only gambling on whether or not it can be arsed you are playing the race...currently 7.2 , if its in the mood it could be of great interest....
5.THE STRAWBERRY ONE
The most interesting here by a mile , absolutely destroyed field after field at the lower grades early this year and summer , came out after a break and went straight into the A game racing against the likes of Fingal Bay et al....and duly got his arse kicked , however now dropped back down in trip and class against a couple of disappointing types i would expect this to be in the money ....

CONCLUSION : A tricky race to nail down as there are so many questions to answer , so whats it to be DR SNIPES!!??......well my patients i prescribe to you A SILVER rated DUTCH on , KAFFIE ( 2.92 ) , THE STRAWBERRY ONE ( 6.2 )  and LOVE OF TARA ( 7.0 )  , £375 split returns either £198.55 , £213.75 or £142.50.


RESULT:FOR FUCKS SAKE......!! , BACKED KELLS BELLE both times this season and lost , leave it today and suddenly it finds a heart, the fucking twat!!!...sigh..usual Saturday bollocks, what is it bout me and Saturdays....?...might have this as a day off in future.....;-@@
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RACE 2....

Sandown Park 13:35 
32Red Poker Juvenile Hurdle

...Another small field but tight , very tight with exposed, improving and unknown horses!!..the main protagonists are ...
1.COLEBROOKE
Easily sets the standard here , the one to beat but is now looking exposed  , certainly not a graded racer and looks to me to be a future hcap project , will win again when dropped in class but is up against 2 potentially top class horses here from King and Henderson.
2.FIRE FIGHTER
Very interesting recruit to the winter game and one that i am quite keen on , been punted all morning long and is now joint fav , this has won at and over 2m for M Prescott on the flat and if he jumps ok will be a very tough nut to crack , IF the jumping is solid this is the one to beat.
3.SOLIWERY
A tasty french import for senor Henderson, these imports can quite often be useful are usually race fit  and are often under or over bet, now ive spoke to henderson jnr this morning and the word is that this is a nice sort that jumps well , gets the trip well and moves nicely but in all honesty they have no idea how good or bad it is this is one of those races that they would class as a fact finding mission and ive spoken to Ian Kellit my man in france to evaluate this form in more detail and the word is that the form is nothing and has stated the horse could be a dog and not one that excites him.

CONCLUSION:On the basis of my conversations this morning , the market and the race make up , im predicting a winning start for FIRE FIGHTER and make this a SILVER rated bet , but would also recommend the DUTCH on the top 2 as i simply cannot see anything else winning and at 2.42/2.86 offers enough value to get excited , this is a borderline gold/silver rated bet i would say that its just about a SILVER rated bet.

RESULT:
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RACE 3.

Wincanton 13:20 
Bathwick Tyres Novices' Hurdle
£5000.00 added, 4yo plus, 2m 6f, Class 4

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