Thursday, 26 January 2012

Gooten Morgue ..;-)

Morning All , had a great 4/4 Yesterday which is a relief  as i was starting to worry lol , also had a nice little trixie up yesterday with the two dutches and tappanappa , didnt pay massive but was the equivalent of 3 x 1.5 winners  so was good enough to make me smile.
We have three races to aim at today and i will be doing another Trixie on top of the standard bets.

RACE 1

Warwick 16:25 
Racing UK Intermediate Open NH Flat Race
£2100.00 added, 5-6yo, 2m, Class 6

... This is a very competitive Bumper and the winner of this and probably the next 3 will go onto much better things , KEY TO THE WEST is thought to be Cheltenham bound and is a £125,000 newcomer which will be focused on as its A P McCOY's riding return and the word is that this is expected to win however as much as i would love this Westerner bay gelding to win and say to everyone LUMP ON !! , i simply cant , i could and would say back it by all means as it is the most likely winner but there are live dangers in this field which are forward and are also expected to run very well , these are Avrumi , Whisky Yankee and HURRICANE HENRY from the Lavelle yard , this is fit and quite forward and a big run is expected , they are also suggesting a wins a possability so , plenty of options to consider.

Conclusion : It would be easy to say lump the fav , but its not as straightforward as that , the Henderson beast is the most likely winner on paper but thats it , with the market currently looking like this ( above )  i would say LAY the fav and look to trade back in running i would say Lay at 1.76 and buy at 2.2 for an easy profit , however if it is running well it only lengthen if its gonna lose, if you have some spare winnings i will ultimately say back it but dont be surprised it if does get turnt over.
MY bet in this race will be a PLACE DUTCH concerning Hurricane Henry and Avrumi @ 3.1 / 5.3 as this imo represents better value than just backing the fav @ 1.78.

RESULT :
Pos.Dist.HorseWtJockeyTrainerAgeSP
1Ballyalton (IRE)10-12Harry SkeltonIan Williams511/2
 tracked leaders, went 2nd over 4f out, led 3f out, drew clear from 2f out opened 13/2 touched 7/1
218Key To The West (IRE)10-12A P McCoyN J Henderson511/8 f
 tracked leaders, took keen hold, went 2nd 3f out, no chance with winner final 2f opened 5/4 touched 7/4
36Whisky Yankee (IRE)10-12D A JacobP F Nicholls59/4
 held up towards rear, took keen hold, ridden in 6th 5f out, stayed on from over 2f out, went 3rd over 1f out, no impression opened 9/2 touched 9/2
45Moneymix10-12D ElsworthP R Webber522/1
 in rear, headway over 6f out, outpaced final 3f opened 20/1 touched 22/1
5Beggar's Velvet (IRE)10-12P J BrennanF O'Brien633/1
 led 2f, pressed leader, led again over 8f out until 3f out, weakened over 1f out opened 40/1 touched 40/1
614Avrumi10-12Paul MoloneyD E Cantillon628/1
 slowly into stride, soon recovered into mid-division racing keenly, lost place 5f out opened 28/1 touched 28/1

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RACE 2

Gowran Park 16:05 
Nugent Spirit 25 Horsebox Flat Race
€13000.00 added, 4-7yo, 2m

...MORNING ROYAL from the mighty Mullins Yard is thought to be a bit of a good thing in this race but im not to sure as the 2nd fav MOSCOW MANNON has winning form x2 over 2m ( nhf ) at Fairyhouse and Galway and on both occasions he ran to 4m flat -/+ 2 secs and this not only makes him extremely consistent but 10-14secs quicker than the fav , ok the fav did win by 17L last time out making all and trouncing the field but he still ran 14 secs slower than Moscow Mannon , so i will suggest this is most definitely a 2 horse race and a DUTCH is a nailed on , i make this a GOLD std bet , the first Gold in ages but this is absolutely nailed on.

RESULT :
Gowran Park 4.05
 1st1 Moscow Mannon (IRE)7-4
 2nd3 Morning Royalty (IRE)9-10 F

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RACE 3

Kempton Park 17:35 
32Red Casino Median Auction Maiden Stakes
£2500.00 added, 3-5yo, 7f, Class 6

...An incredibly tough puzzle to find , with a case for 6 of the 8 runners , lets start with the 2 newcomers , Firstly Fairway to Heaven a bay colt who is probably best watched but could like so many here run a decent race , this is a watcher tho imo , and Secondly and more interestingly is the £82,000 Red Clubs Colt from the Hills yard , he is doing ok on the AW and anything he sends out has to be respected so there may be some value with this .
All of those with experience have form that entitles them to respect , Remix has a few 2nds that suggest a win is just around the corner however each has suggested it finds nothing in a finish and has traded a good deal shorter in each so this looks like a good BTL option , Kalokagathia has an excellent chance on form as it ran over CD lto just going down by around 1/2L in third but was staying on strongly at the end and was full of running it will take a smart run to beat this.
Ashdown Lad ran a much improved race lto to come 2nd to the highly rated Discoverer again another running on very strongly at the end i think he will have to improve again to win as i feel a running of around 77 will be needed to win this and the best i feel this can get is a place.
Finally we have Mr Mackenzie a horse with some so so form over shorter trips , has run ok without really threatening and unless it improves massively for the step up in trip will not be good enough at the end where there will be a few running on.

CONCLUSION : In a race that is very hard to pinpoint the winner i will say i feel the best bet here is an EW or ( my bet )  a PLACE ONLY on KALOKAGATHIA as i feel it has all the gears , the form and the running style to do well here.

RESULT :
Pos.Dr.Dist.HorseWtJockeyTrainerAgeSP
12Fairway To Heaven (IRE)8-8Jim CrowleyM Wigham311/2
 dwelt, held up in rear and keen, headway over 2f out, led over 1f out, edged left last 150 yards, kept on opened 12/1 touched 12/1
23½Kalokagathia (IRE)8-8D SweeneyMiss Jo Crowley316/5 f
 held up mid-division, headway over 1f out, challenged and looked like passing winner when bumped last 150 yards, kept on one pace opened 7/2 touched 7/2
31Ashdown Lad8-8S J DrowneW Jarvis34/1
 held up towards rear, headway when not much room on inner over 2f out, kept on inside final furlong opened 5/2 touched 4/1

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Todays Trixie will be ,
1.KEY TO THE WEST / HURRICANE HENRY - 2ND
2.MORNING ROYAL/MOSCOW MANNON - 1ST
3.KALOKAGATHIA/ASHDOWN LAD/RED CLUBS - 2ND

Todays LOTD will be REMIX - UNPLACED

Good luck to everyone today, have a great day and keep the faith.

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