Monday, 9 January 2012

Tues Advance Cards...

Upon request ( mr rawnsley ) i am doing Tmrw's selections early , however i will point out that if there any non runners, alterations i will alter 15 mins b4 the race..Tmrw i will be looking at SOUTHWELL only ,
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RACE 1

Southwell 12:55 
Bet On Winning Distances At bluesq.com Handicap
£2500.00 added, 4yo plus, 1m, Class 6

...A rather poor race with a lot of runners but no class or quality , the only horse that stands out here is SPACECRAFT , an obvious choice as it is again being ridden by J Fanning who rode it last twice both over CD and was 2nd and 1st , Fanning has been a revelation on the AW and with this combo in seemingly great form against a very poor field its a pointless task looking elsewhere as i feel the current 2.82 is considered by me as value, fearless poet and very well read are the obvious and imo only dangers, but i feel that only Spacecraft can be relied upon to run his race. 2nd ( 1.18 )


RESULT :
1stSt Ignatius15/2Full Result  
2ndSpacecraft (IRE)5/4fav
3rdVery Well Red11/1

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RACE 2

Southwell 14:25 
Thousands Of Sports Experiences At bluesq.com Handicap
£3500.00 added, 3yo only, 6f, Class 5

..A very competitive race and one that requires great inspection , i have 4 to concentrate on here and the first three are LAFFAN ( 1st ) , SONSIE LASS ( 2nd ) and M J WOODWARD, these three are all in very good form and any one of these could win i have them only separated by 0.5secs so in racing terms it would be no surprise to see them all cross together but the really interesting thing here is all 3 like to front run , make all or generally lead, all three of these like to dominate and will be fighting for the best position and i feel that this could also lead to their downfall as they could cut each others throat and tire each other out this is where my selection and 4th choice comes in SUNNY SIDE UP , this based on its last bit of CD form is actually 0.23 secs quicker so we know it has pace , it is in form and more importantly it likes to sit just off the pace and attack the front ranks  at the business end and imo if he gets a good slip thru he can catch these nappin the only negative for me is the jockey a relatively unknown quantity , he rides well , the horse gets a good split , it then has every chance and at 6.8 is a very fair price. 


RESULT :3rd @ 8.8 / 2.34

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RACE 3

Southwell 15:25 
Visit Nottinghamshire Maiden Stakes
£3500.00 added, 3yo plus, 1m, Class 5

...One of my niche races and a poor one the first to mention is Ecossaise a thoroughly disappointing sort tried over a variety of trips and without much success i could never back this eternally frustrating sort so with that i can only see one other horse here fit to win and that is SPIN CAST a horse with any amount of potential and a mix of some solid proven form and with its last run where it was unlucky after getting bumped and hampered losing its place and then running on this imo is the only horse with the requisite class and it should be too good for the rest even without any improvement, 2.92 is a fair price , this will def place so G get £50 put on in the place only market and you will have your daily amount ;-)). 3rd ( 1.52 ) 


RESULT :
Southwell 3.25Full Result
 1st4 Ecossaise3-1
 2nd1 Maxamillion Bounty5-1
 3rd3 Spin Cast2-1 F

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RACE 4 

Southwell 15:55 
Play Bingo Free At bluesq.com Handicap
£3500.00 added, 4yo plus, 7f, Class 5

...  Having decided to go for  fourth i have no alternative other than to look towards the rather tricky finale!! however one horse which is well in weight wise and has recent proven form ( CD ) is ANDIAMO VIA , this will be a rough race but if Mullen can again get this out quick and stay clear of the likely trouble behind then i feel it could well double up here although i am low on confidence with this one , tbh it wouldnt even make a bronze bet..more like tinfoil...but there ya go..3rd ( 2.76 )

RESULT :
Southwell 3.55
 1st4 Podgies Boy (IRE)6-1
 2nd2 Bianca De Medici11-4 F
 3rd10 Andiamo Via6-1

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BET CONCLUSION : 4 Selections and i will go with a £15 WIN L15 , a £50 EW ACCA , £75 Single on Spacecraft, a £75 LAY on ABSHIR ZAIN  ( bcked in from 20.0 into 7.8 and was unplaced as expected ) as i have this as my strongest ratings lay all meeting and a £75 LAY on Mini Diva ( unplaced ) my 2nd best LOTD, any alterations to follow.

Enjoy the bets, enjoy your day , keep smiling.

Results Analysis : Lucky 15 was a loser with no winners so thats - £225 , my win bet went south so thats another - £75 totalling £300 in LOSSES...
However both my lays were good giving me £150 in profits and the £50 acca was good as all 4 got placed and that returned a PROFIT  of £716!! so another corking day imo with an overall profit of £566+

Calculated Amounts


Unit Stake
50.00
Number of Bets
2
Total Stake
100.00

Total Return
816.72
Total Profit
716.72

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