Monday, 2 January 2012

Good Morning All..,

Here we are , start of a new year with new adventures , today was  fairly decent start i actually thought i had the winner for a long way yesterday as Billy Merriot hit 1.04 in running!!! , but the real fun begins today and lets see how much roll we can attain, some key factors for now whilst following the elements ( bronze,silver and gold ) i will limit the nos of bets to 3 per day max ( for now ) with the stakes being at various levels but based  around a £1000 bank , i will produce a separate points result for all the win bets at intervals thru the year ( probably monthly ) .
So our " main " race today is the 13:20 @ Southwell.
This was a 7 now 6 runner event where only 4 have any chance of winning , the 4 protagonists are...

1.VEHEMENT -
This is in all honesty a bit of a slowboat , its been trying its luck over the sticks and has 1 run on the flat and that was over a mile , never really in contention and staying on at the end , as you would expect , i would more interested in this if it was over 2m as i just cannot see it having the pace for a well run 1m4f.

2.CHABADA -
A former HRAC inmate with obvious limited ability , but it is curious as to why the " DR " has purchased this outcast ? , and why he sent it to nick williams ? , its speed ratings put it clear 2nd best but it has never raced on the surface, if it acts on the fibresand it has every chance if coming on for the run.

3.EYEDORO -
Another from the " always trying " Mark Johnston production line , it has some fair form in the bag but its times and ratings are very poor for me this has a lot to do to get competitive as this has shown up well in most of its races only to dramatically weaken out , wont like a battle and cant quicken , other than its lto run , the 3 previous runs its had have resulted in him trading at 1.66 , 1.73 and 1.35 in running , so possibly a good trading point? , with the resolute Fanning onboard and @ 5.9 currently i would suggest its a fairly good bet for a trade , the stats say yes.( Traded at 1.3 and was unplaced )

4.BRAVESTOFTHEBRAVE -
A good looking sort out of Victoria Cross who was in turn out of Mark of Esteem , who was a very nice animal and his progeny dont mind the AW at all.
This ran a belter over CD last time out just being pipped by another MJ horse ( shieldmaiden ) this was his first start over 1m4f and had a poor start , was slowly away and was being pushed along after 3f , however it did quicken up after some galvanising and the front two pulled 8 lengths clear of the 3rd , only having gone down by a SH it was unlucky in the end , this is an obvious call .

CONCLUSION : I really do think that Bravestofthebrave is an absolute stand out here , has easily the best form , likes the trip , likes the ground , stable in form , tick tick tick....but im a bit perplexed as to why its still 2.1? , i would like to think its a standing dish , but my aim is to make profit and imo we have a GOLD STANDARD bet here and that bet is a dutch on both BRAVESTOFTHEBRAVE ( 2.1 ) and Chabada ( 3.5 ) , with my bet being £250 win on each , this returns a profit of either £23.75 or £356.25 , with their being so much on chabada i will also put an in running lay of £100 @ 2.42 , £50 @ 2.0 and £75 @ 1.42 , imo you can forget the rest , this is a 2 horse race , a gteed little earner.
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The 2nd race for today will be the 12:20 @ Ayr , where i expect SUPER DUTY to beat NUTS and BOLTS ( SILVER BET ) , And the 3rd and final race for today is the 12:55 @ Ayr where i like GUESS AGAIN  ( EW GOLD BET ), its quite a warm race and one in which the front three all look to have a solid chance , But on info i have received i have every reason to be gteed a  top run from the selection.
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BET SUMMARY:
1.GOLD DUTCH - BOOOM!! - CHABADA 1ST @ 4.5!!! ...WOW! ( fav WENT OFF AT 1.64 ) = WON £132.75
2.SILVER WIN - FELL at last when leading .....;-(
3.GOLD EW - 2nd @ 7.84 ( needs further, follow over further in same grade or lower )
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NOTE: Regarding the 13:20 @ Southwell , as stated Eyedoro had previously traded low odds on 3/4 runs , it did indeed trade at a very low 1.31 again before folding and running unplaced.

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