Wednesday, 18 January 2012

Morning C NUTS ...

WOW , not freezing for a change!! , its wet and cold but managable , still no word " G " and the impending baby...hopefully soon so we can all give him a cheer! , we have some solid racing back on the cards to day and i will be highlighting 4 races , 2 x Maidens ( AW ) and 2 x NHF so we will hopefully be able to squeeze a little exotic out ( ooerr missus ) !...so without further ado...

RACE 1

Southwell 15:55 
Southwell Mares' Maiden Open NH Flat Race
£2100.00 added, 4-6yo, 2m, Class 6

..A nice little race to start and as is the norm i will highlight my fav four from this race..

1.BIT OF A MADAM -
Ran very well fto over 1m5f  , travelling in the main " on the bit " only to find nothing when expected to quicken , although did stay on for 2nd and gave the impression that the longer trip will suit , has a leading  chance , will look the most likely winner for a long way then...??.., stays as well as i expect and imo it shud win.

2.WYCHWOODS DANCER -
Has enough experience to make his presence felt and has the form to back that after just going down last time after tiring right up at the end coming 4th but only beaten 2L  , will run a strong looking race  , leading chance , solid EW chance.

3.OAKLANDS ELISE -
The dark horse but one from a prolific NH family and coming from the great Reveley Family will be primed for a big run and young James Reverley is a Jockey i really like, never gives up , tactically astute , and genuine , i think this could surprise.

4.GINGER FIZZ -
The most experienced in the field with some good/moderate form but so far it has run as tho it doesnt actually stay , tried over 1m6 and 2m and weakens at back end in both so, really unsure but i would suggest this horse is ungenuine and moody and i could never back it , i could comfortably lay this.

CONCLUSION : Having checked the markets they are generally priced up as they should be with no stand out value either way , The bet i really like here is a PLACE DUTCH with Oaklands Elise  and Wychwoods Dancer , tight value so will wait to see if i can attain the right price , in the absence of this i would suggest a LAY on Ginger Fizz .
Max lay on ginger fizz now after that last race, best 4 and not a single place??!!, ffs!

Pos.Dist.HorseWtJockeyTrainerAgeSP
1Ginger Fizz11-4D ElsworthB I Case57/1
 
2Bit Of A Madam10-7Paul MoloneyEvan Williams42/1 f
 
3Mysula11-4Nick ScholfieldMiss C Dyson528/1
 
45Wychwoods Dancer11-4J MogfordG McPherson57/2
 
5Oaklands Elise11-4J ReveleyK G Reveley54/1

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RACE 2.

Newbury 15:40 
Pashmina UK 'Junior' Standard Open NH Flat Race
£2000.00 added, 4yo only, 1m 4f 110y, Class 6

..In NH terms this is quite a short race being over less than 1m5f , and a big field ( 18 runners )  and some decent form on offer, this will be tricky....Of the 4 i will be focusing on , 2 will be newcomers and 2 will have proven form..tough choices.....

1.WORKBENCH -
A newcomer from the powerful Nicholls yard and i thinks its interesting as well as expected that the mighty Ruby ( Walsh ) is sticking around in the cold and damp to ride this , ..will run a big race im sure.

2.WILD WEST -
Another tight newcomer , this time from the JjOneil yard and owned by Gambler JP Macmanus , Out of Galileo this trip could be ideal for starters and could easily win or place, again i expect mr berry to give this a waiting but tactically astute ride and will look to come with a barnstorming late run and challenge , interesting for sure.

3.DALAVAR -
A beautifully bred Dalakhani Bay gelding with a nice run under its belt , the experience could prove vital here , could be anything , if improving i expect this to be bang there come the finish line.

4.HOUSEPARTY -
And finally a Bloomfields offering , very well backed fto and ran a very encouraging race coming 2nd but gave an overall impression that he needs further, i am not convinced that he will like this shorter trip and may be tapped for toe , my opinion is that this will turn out to be a smart horse in the future but will need further and this is more about experience than winning.

CONCLUSION : Tough to call this , very tough but i do feel the presence of Ruby has just swung the vote and at quite reasonable odds i make WORKBENCH a standout EW bet ( 30/70 ) , Dalavar is probably NB with Houseparty the least likely to enjoy the trip , that said the last two races i have highlighted although i got the 1/2/3/4 correct i had them in wrong order and my bets went a bit south....
Pos.Dist.HorseWtJockeyTrainerAgeSP
1My Inheritance (IRE)11-5Gerald Quinn (10)T R George411/1
 
2Rydon Pynes10-12T J MurphyM Hill440/1
 
3hdLord Of The Dunes10-12J TizzardC L Tizzard420/1
 
41Dalavar (IRE)10-12W HutchinsonA King47/2
 
5Wild West (IRE)10-12Mr A J Berry (3)Jonjo O'Neill45/1
 
65La Madonnina (IRE)10-5Nathan Sweeney (5)R H Buckler4100/1
 
7Workbench (FR)10-12R WalshP F Nicholls410/3 f
 

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RACE 3

Lingfield Park 12:50 
Place Only Betting At bluesq.com Median Auction Maiden Stakes
£2500.00 added, 3yo only, 7f, Class 6

..GAUL WOOD...if this doesnt win i may well end up eating my own testicles!!...

RESULT :
Pos.Dr.Dist.HorseWtJockeyTrainerAgeSP
13Gaul Wood (IRE)9-3R KingscoteTom Dascombe31/7 f
tracked leaders, switched right to challenge on outside over 2f out, led approaching final furlong, soon clear, hard held opened 2/11
26Prince Gabrial (IRE)9-3S DonohoeK A Ryan311/2
led after 1f, headed over 1f out, no extra opened 6/1

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RACE 4

Lingfield Park 13:55 
Crowhurst Maiden Fillies' Stakes
£3500.00 added, 3yo plus, 1m, Class 5

..BURKES ROCK , this is a GOLD RATED EW bet , cost £70k and out of Cape Cross , will only have to run to a rating of around 65-70 to win this and i will be shocked if it doesnt place , Noseda doesnt have 50 rated shites in his yard , this simply HAS to place!!!...and the win would be welcomed ;-0.

RESULT :Hayley Turner rode a SHOCKING race here, boxed, bunched , bumped , out of position coming round the bend then into the straight it ran on like a steam train just failed to catch news desk for third...hang your head Hayley!!
Pos.Dr.Dist.HorseWtJockeyTrainerAgeSP
16Samedi8-7J FanningM Johnston39/2
opened 11/2 touched 6/1
28¾Millibar (IRE)8-7 pL MorrisN P Littmoden35/2
opened 11/4 touched 9/4
354News Desk8-7N MackayJ H M Gosden38/1
touched 9/1
43hdBurke's Rock8-7Hayley TurnerJ Noseda37/4 f
opened 2/1

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 EXOTIC : 
1.WORKBENCH - Unplaced sigh....
2.BURKES ROCK - Unplaced sigh....
3.OAKLANDS ELISE - Unplaced sigh....

£25 EW TRIXIE .....GL!! Unplaced sigh....
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