Monday, 16 January 2012

Afternoon MoFo's ;-@

Late start today , well for most as i have a very productive mnoring laying horses at  Cagnes-Sur-Mer..Nimps cash , so just chilling out now as the action today is somewhat fractured and un enthralling , Just the one Niche Race today and its a trappy lil fucker i tell thee...


Wolverhampton 16:55 
Black Country's Only Racecourse Maiden Stakes
£3500.00 added, 3yo only, 1m 1f 103y, Class 5

..A solid looking 10 runner race where only 4 have any chance of winning  ( imo® ) and they are the following...

1.AUTHENTICATION -
What can i say , its trained by the self effacing twat known as M Johnston , one trainer who i just cannot get a grip on , shit horses run like derby winners and good looking winning sorts then run like Blackpool donkeys , runs em over wrong trips etc etc..( im still miffed at the amount i lost on Switzerland ) , well sticking to my own principals i would have to sat that this 1m1f would well suit this son of Authorized, another one that if it won i would not be surprised , this for me is no back and no lay.

2.ANGEL GABRIAL -
Has some fair form and its run over track @ 7f behind Henry Clay ( another MJ Horse ) was ok but he did tire up quite significantly at the end of the raceand im not convinced that either this trip is ideal ( will he stay ? ) or does he have the gears if required? , imo i dont think so and this i couldnt back at all but i could comfortably lay this.

3.COTTON TRADER -
Experienced Beast from the Gosden yard , solid form , likes the trip , stays , likes the surface and has a very good AW jockey , ticks all the boxes and is rightly so the Fav , but looking deeper the form is not much if any better than a couple of others here, well beaten 3rd over CD on first attempt , Well beaten at Deauville LTO although placed seems to find little after spending most of the race travelling supremely well although didnt trade that low in any of its races..

DateCourseDistGoingEqpRace TypePosJockeyORIn-play priceSPs and Advantage
HighLowBSPISP+/−Place
07 Dec 2011Deauville1m1fStandardAW Flat2/15Christophe Soumillon----1.90-
23 Nov 2011Lingfield Park1mFastAW Flat3/11William Buick--23.1532%1.41
12 Nov 2011Wolverhampton1m1fStandardAW Flat3/13William Buick--3.053.793.506%1.56
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..@ its current price of 1.95 i would say the value call is to LAY this.

4.CANARY WHARF -
Former A O'Brien inmate with some decent form but it has generally tried to make all or lead out and then has been nabbed at the end of the race so i will suggest that if its stamina holds out it will win.

CONCLUSION: A race that has the 3 main principles all down as non stayers / not gteed to really stay or weak finishers.....Sigh what a carbuncle!! , My bet in this race would be a PLACE ONLY on AUTHENTICATION @ 2.36 , as i have no confidence in any of the others and MJ does produce gutsy stayers with that if any of the main three do tire up i will expect this to come with a late rattle , this is only a silver rated bet , my lay if i was having one in this would be Angel Gabrial.


RESULT : 
Pos.Dr.Dist.HorseWtJockeyTrainerAgeSP
16Canary Wharf (IRE)9-3 bA KirbyM Botti311/4
 tracked leaders, ridden over 2f out, kept on to lead close home opened 7/2 touched 7/2
24s.hCotton Trader (USA)9-3N MackayJ H M Gosden3Evs f
 led, ridden inside final furlong, caught close home opened 10/11 touched Evs
325Angel Gabrial (IRE)9-3J P SpencerIan Williams34/1
 held up mid-division, ridden to chase leaders over 2f out, chased leading pair over 1f out, one pace opened 7/2 touched 4/1

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