Saturday, 14 January 2012

A very Cold Day....

Wetherby has already bitten the dust with the current temp -2 , its bitter...Brrrr , i am taking it easy on the weekends now and as such i have only 1 race i want to post today , the 15:15 at Lingfield.

A decent looking maiden for the track with 4 horses that look above average and imo the winner will surely come from these 4.
The Fav and at 1.99 is far to short imo , ran ok fto without being stellar, pushed and pulled its way thru the race coming in 2nd at Wolverhampton over 6f , there was nothing about that run to suggest its miles clear of these and i think the " varian " factor may be at play.

The most experienced of this quartet and having reached a place  ( of sorts ) on each run would suggest its holding its form but not improving significantly.Read these statements...
behind, headway 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong to go 3rd towards finish, no impression
led early, prominent, ridden over 2f out, stayed on same pace from over 1f out
led, driven clear over 2f out, hard ridden inside final furlong, headed and no extra last strides
..Now those races were over 2 x 7f and 1 x 1m showing that this races prominently before weakening and or tiring out , first try at 6f and it could be exactly whats required coupled with the fact that its last run was quite hot with the first two winning and looking useful ( beaten a sh by yesterdays easy winner discoverer ) , this could easily win .

My choice being from one of my all time fav 2 yr olds , Be My Chief ( ex Ccecil circa mid 80's ) , fto ran over CD beaten just by a nose / head in a fast run race and in a time quicker than that of al fareej, they can and will both improve but at 15.5 this for me is the value call , i mean the place price of 2.76 is a better bet ( and will probs go 3+ ), Now 3+ as i type...

The " dark horse " one of M Johnstons specials , at first glance i would say this is not a sprinter and as usual with his types when stepped up in trip to around 4m will suddenly win on the bridle , Fanning has been  revelation on the sand but hes employed by MJ so nothing new there , ran ok in both its races with out threatening the judges , imo this is the weakest of the four, but could surprise, i wouldnt be surprised if it indeed surprised.

Al Fareej cannot be backed at odds on , that would be mad imo and is a solid good value LAY , My bet here tho is an EW ( 30/70 ) on VALE OF LINGFIELD , the value call , already proven to be the quickest , the others have to improve to match him already, holds all the aces and will g'tee you a good run i will also be laying Switzerland to cover the bet as i simply cannot see this winning but will wait as i see this as an in running trade ( if betfair decides to work today ) , Suet Bellagio could win and i wont be shocked if it does.

12Switzerland (IRE)9-3J FanningM Johnston34/1
 chased leaders, switched right to challenge over 1f out, ran on to lead inside final furlong, driven clear, redily opened 7/2
21Al Freej (IRE)8-12D Fox (3)R Varian310/11 f
 dwelt, pulled hard, soon tracking leaders, outpaced over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, no chance with winner touched 4/5
33Sujet Bellagio9-3S W KellyB J Meehan34/1
 tracked leader, led over 1f out, soon edged left, headed inside final furlong, faded closing stages touched 7/2
410¾Vale Of Lingfield (IRE)9-3A KirbyJ R Best312/1
 dwelt, mid-division, headway over 1f out, chased leaders inside final furlong, never able to challenge opened 16/1 touched 18/1



So there you are , thats it from me today but i will be around all day should anyone require any advice on any specific race, Email , comment,twitter or FB, Good luck and enjoy your weekend , see you all on Monday.


Copy Halt