Wednesday, 4 January 2012

Quirky Potatoes

Indeed lol , another fine day today with some lovely sand action and today we have 3 great races to look at.

Lets start with the races...

1.LINGFIELD 13:20 £3500.00 added, 3-4yo, 7f, Class 5
A Trappy little race for 3 and 4 yr old maidens that will no doubt involve horses that have either under achieved , been hard to train or just plain poor.
Originally 8 runners we are now down to 6 after 2 withdrew so there could be fun to be had on the betfair EW market which still pays top 3.

An interesting sort that has been racing in France although its last run was for the new stable and it was over 1m at this track and just beaten a short head after travelling very well i feel that if this form can be repeated this has every chance with certain place possibilities.

Has a couple of fair efforts in its history but its overall profile is very poor i would be shocked if this 53 rated beast could upset any of the placings.

A nice looking sort out of mr greeley who ran a shocker tbh fto over 6f , never really a factor and a well beaten 5th , this may do better with exp and over this longer trip but for me i think needs at least 1m+ , cant see it getting involved .

A well bred sort from the " always trying " yard of Mark Johnston , ran ok fto over 1m @ Brighton but didnt do anything to suggest this is an obvious odds on choice and tbh i would never back an MJ runner @ odds on in a maiden and more so over this 7f , yes it does have a chance which can be described as obvious as most jolly's do but this is a no no for me.

Ran as tho it really needed the race fto and Baldings horses do improve for a run ( as do most , but his strike rate with 2nd and 3rd runs is higher than ave ) but do i see this being an 80+ rated horse? , probably not , this is a hard one to decide upon as it could be open to any amount of improvement at a biggish price will wait to see if there is any late money for this.

This for me is easily the most intriguing horse in the line up , a very well bred sort ( holy Roman emperor ) and owned by the trainer i would suggest it may well need further to be seen at its best not gambled on yet also makes me think that today is not the day however a big run wouldnt surprise.

CONCLUSION: I dont like Henry Clay @ 1.8 and i would make this a BRONZE LAY , imo i think FORCEFUL APPEAL looks the most likely winner but his would only be a SILVER rated bet , my bet in this race is a SILVER rated PLACE ONLY DUTCH on QUEEN OF HEAVEN & ARCHINA @ 2.6 and 3.0 this is where i feel the value is and this is all about making profit not just finding winners, £150 on each.

Result:As predicted Henry Clay got outgunned and could only manage a poor second , the place backs were poor but in all honesty i traded out my place bets after Queen of Heaven drifted from 12.5 to 50.0!!...that was a signal to trade out , i ended up just having the lay on Henry Clay , but in all Honesty i cant work out why i didnt actually back the winner Forceful Appeal ?? , as i couldnt see anything else winning i didnt lose much i just didnt win as much as i should have , still a wins a win....

Lingfield 1.20
 1st1 Forceful Appeal (USA)7-4
 2nd4 Henry Clay8-13 F


14:50 LINGFIELD  £3500.00 added, 3yo plus, 5f, Class 5
..Another all age maiden that will throw up some tricky types.

This really is a 2 Horse race and will only concern Magilini and PALE ORCHID , the latter has easily the best form and unless Magilini can improve around 16lbs the 2nd berth looks like his.

CONCLUSION : PALE ORCHID is a confident GOLD rated bet £100 win

Result -1ST - PALE ORCHID @ 1.33 ( won £33 )


Race 3.
16:00 KEMPTON £2500.00 added, 3yo only, 6f, Class 6
.A lower grade race than the other two however it would appear a lot stronger albeit with only the 6 runners

A likeable sort that ran a bit of a shocker fto slowly away and never in contention , was tenderly handled and it can be gteed that there is a whole lot more to come from this .

A nice looking sort from the Balding yard that on breeding will need a stiffer test than this , that said the conundrum with maidens is just this , partly guessing , partly watching the markets , using your knowledge of racing to assume a horses role via breeding  and occasionally a few other variables , for me this wont be involved in the finish.

Again another one that had a very ponderous start and a bit of a school for its first run , will improve but again not one im keen on.

This has a great chance , it has some rock solid form lto over 7f it was winning at the 6f pole , has Crowley in the saddle and is one i like very much here.

This would only interest me if there was a lot of money around for it as pfi cole has quite a poor record with all his horses fto and isnt in any real form at the mo.

This has easily the best form of any of these with a good looking 2nd lto over this trip at Wolverhampton and there have been winners from that race already giving the form a rock solid look , this looks easily the most likely winner.

CONCLUSION : This looks to be a straight form battle between By Invitation and LIKE THE NIGHT , with the latter holding the best chance however at the odds of both of these i like the DUTCH @ 2.7 and 3.5 , this is only a SILVER rated bet and as such the stakes will be slightly lower so just £60 on each.

 Kempton 4.00
 1st4 By Invitation (USA)4-6 F
 2nd6 Like The Night5-1

Boom, Boom and Treble BOOM!!, cleaned up on all 3 races today , fantastic stuff, maybe this close concentration is the key, keep to my niche and let the rest go......long may it continue ;-))


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