Morning all , had a bit of a burner day yesterday having what i would describe as " loose " bets and missing out the PAS selections ( Nibani , Porthwidden Beach among others ( spelling mistakes allowed ) ) , so my good profits from tues went on weds and now its thurs and its time to recover the losses, my Elemental selections went on the back burner for a few days and my niche took a minor back seat as i tried my luck a bit with a couple of exotics , so today i will have 1 Gold rated LAY , 1 Gold rated BACK and i will look to see if there are enough races to seduce a EW Acca...so lets see...
RACE 1
...I can only see 2 horses here having any chance of winning , the 2 to focus on are SOOPACAL and UPPER LAMBOURN , @ 2.54 and 3.3 this for me is a cast iron DUTCH , i think this is tremendous value and this imo is a GOLD rated Dutch.
RESULT:
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RACE 2
...This is quite an interesting race as there has been a plethora of money for Avonrose backed right down from 7.2 on the exchange and punted on hills from 5/2>2/1 so something is obviously expected , the other avonbridge gelding Chookie Avon has also attracted support along with Prize Point with the others being left virtually untouched which is surprising as the latter two are both quite big in the market , i cant have Mconnell as its form over 7f is poor and all its winning form is over 1m , Piceno does have a solid chance as it looks the most reliable so do i dutch the front three?....hmm , quite fancy the 3 and having a quick double but i will abstain and instead have a MAX LAY on LITEUP MY WORLD , this hasnt raced for over 500 days and with no money for it would suggest that today really wont be his day and in view of the betting on others i feel quite happy and confident about laying this out and have laid this for £200 @ 7.4 , this is in my opinion nailed on, a GOLD rated LAY.
RESULTS:
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RACE 3
...This is one of my specialist races , my niche area and its a poor one at that , i would suggest here the only bet is a PLACE only or possibly an EW ( 30/70 ) on LADYDOLLY , A very poor race and not one to get too heavily enthused about.
RESULT:
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RACE 4
..I really like the look of COMMUNITY here its lto CD reads very well and i simply cant have it that this wont place , GOLD rated PLACE only bet £200 and a cheeky little £50 on the nose ;-). ( 4th Beaten a Nose!!)
RESULT:
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RACE 5
...Another niche race which is fine as i think Kempton is a Hcap only day today , and again i feel that only two here will be winning Eyedor or Frosty Friday but is that better value than just laying Bravestofthebrave?...Given the make up of the race and the potential here for a shock result im going to say the best bet here is a LAY on Bravestofthebrave @ 3.6 , this is only a silver rated lay.- **After lumping on it lto i decided to leave it today and it duly finds some heart and wins by a SH , oh well..no harm done.
RESULT:
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RACE 6
..Not much happening here for me and not a race to get too heavily involved in , i think the LAY on LOWTHERWOOD is probably the best bet.
RESULT:
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RACE 7
..BEACHWOOD BAY again has a low draw and will run a big race even with the penalty but this looks very tricky for a getting out stakes , tread carefully...5th
RESULT:
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Right well thats Southwell covered and there are def' a few bets there for me , will see whats at Kempers before finalising all bets although a few are already on...
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KEMPTON
RACE 1
..Tough race with so many out of form or just plain shit!!, i will side with LITTLE PERISHER ( EW ) here as its form is reliable, creditable and is better class than most of these and does have some CD winning form and i think at 14.5 is of interest , so i will split my stakes here , half at this price and half at bfsp , w/p.
RESULT :
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RACE 2
..An interesting race and as far as im concerned until march races like this are in my mind are still 2yr old races , so im looking at this as tho its a 2yr old nursery and with taht i make PEARL REBEL at 2.1 ( Evens ) far to low after just one run which was over shorter , yes it won well, yes it ran on but taking such short odds against horses that have varying levels of proven form is betting suicide and i would rather LAY than back at these skinny odds , win or lose its the only bet to consider, SILVER rated LAY.
RESULT :
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RACE 3
..TOURIST WIN and PLACE LAY as 1 of 2 things will happen here as it usually does imo , gets a decent break for a change , hunts em up and comes with a late surge and wins nicely or will blow start and leave itself too much to do and will end up doing nothing , this rather a speculative bet tho and is not one in which i would go overboard on.
RESULT :
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RACE 4
.. A decent long distance hcap and in a field of 10 we have 8 that are either CD, C or D winners so very competitive but good fun and thats all this race really can be from a betting angle..fun , and the fun bet would be an EW DUTCH on Dream Catcher and Blue Cossack.
RESULT :
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RACE 5
Kempton Park 18:15
..What a dogshit awful race , cba even applying any form of synopsis to this drizzle , Laconious EW would be the most tentative of tentative selections...urgh!!, next race please!!
RESULT :
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RACE 6
..In a tough race i like SUNSET KITTY but having just noticed the veracity of its price i wouldnt back it but strangely couldnt lay it either, Perfect Mission and Calypso Magic could both run decent races , but the former is taking a steep step up in grade and the latter is a constant dummy spitter , so i think i would probably just stay at the bar and get another drink if i was there...if i really had to have a bet here i would probably go for a Place only on Ocean Legend..
RESULT :
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RACE 7
..This is all but name a 2yr old Maiden / Nursery and falls into my lap as the getting out stakes , and i will end the day with a GOLD rated LAY on SAMASANA this beast is at best a non trying plater and at worst..dog food!!, Max Lay Time!!...
RESULT :
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BETS CONCLUSION :
1.MAX BET on the dutch in the first at Southwell.- 1st = Win
2.MAX LAY on the 2nd @ Southwell.- UNPLACED = WIN
3.MAX PLACE BACK on COMMUNITY in the 14:25 Southwell.4th = LOSS
4.MAX LAY on SAMASANA - Result = Unplaced = Win
These will be my main bets today, No Acca's or Exotics.
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RACE 1
Southwell 12:55
Bet At Blue Square Apprentice Classified Claiming Stakes
£2500.00 added, 4yo plus, 5f, Class 6
...I can only see 2 horses here having any chance of winning , the 2 to focus on are SOOPACAL and UPPER LAMBOURN , @ 2.54 and 3.3 this for me is a cast iron DUTCH , i think this is tremendous value and this imo is a GOLD rated Dutch.
RESULT:
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| 1st | 1 Upper Lambourn (IRE) | 2-1 | ||
| 2nd | 5 Soopacal (IRE) | 11-10 F | ||
RACE 2
Southwell 13:25
David Bellingham Scrambles To 50 Handicap
£3900.00 added, 4yo plus, 7f, Class 5
...This is quite an interesting race as there has been a plethora of money for Avonrose backed right down from 7.2 on the exchange and punted on hills from 5/2>2/1 so something is obviously expected , the other avonbridge gelding Chookie Avon has also attracted support along with Prize Point with the others being left virtually untouched which is surprising as the latter two are both quite big in the market , i cant have Mconnell as its form over 7f is poor and all its winning form is over 1m , Piceno does have a solid chance as it looks the most reliable so do i dutch the front three?....hmm , quite fancy the 3 and having a quick double but i will abstain and instead have a MAX LAY on LITEUP MY WORLD , this hasnt raced for over 500 days and with no money for it would suggest that today really wont be his day and in view of the betting on others i feel quite happy and confident about laying this out and have laid this for £200 @ 7.4 , this is in my opinion nailed on, a GOLD rated LAY.
RESULTS:
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| 1st | 4 Avonrose | 3-1 | ||
| 2nd | 3 Piceno (IRE) | 13-8 F | ||
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RACE 3
Southwell 13:55
Golf At Southwell Median Auction Maiden Stakes
£2500.00 added, 3-5yo, 5f, Class 6
...This is one of my specialist races , my niche area and its a poor one at that , i would suggest here the only bet is a PLACE only or possibly an EW ( 30/70 ) on LADYDOLLY , A very poor race and not one to get too heavily enthused about.
RESULT:
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| 1st | 5 Bella Ophelia (IRE) | 4-1 | ||
| 2nd | 3 Ladydolly | 7-2 | ||
| 3rd | 4 Art Show | 5-4 F | ||
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RACE 4
Southwell 14:25
Follow Us On Twitter At bluesq Handicap
£3500.00 added, 4yo plus, 1m, Class 5
..I really like the look of COMMUNITY here its lto CD reads very well and i simply cant have it that this wont place , GOLD rated PLACE only bet £200 and a cheeky little £50 on the nose ;-). ( 4th Beaten a Nose!!)
RESULT:
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| 1st | 8 Dashing Eddie (IRE) | 5-6 F | ||
| 2nd | 7 Zenarinda | 8-1 | ||
| 3rd | 1 D'Urberville | 14-1 | ||
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RACE 5
Southwell 14:55
18th January Come Jumping At Southwell Maiden Stakes
£3500.00 added, 4yo plus, 1m 3f, Class 5
...Another niche race which is fine as i think Kempton is a Hcap only day today , and again i feel that only two here will be winning Eyedor or Frosty Friday but is that better value than just laying Bravestofthebrave?...Given the make up of the race and the potential here for a shock result im going to say the best bet here is a LAY on Bravestofthebrave @ 3.6 , this is only a silver rated lay.- **After lumping on it lto i decided to leave it today and it duly finds some heart and wins by a SH , oh well..no harm done.
RESULT:
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| 1st | 3 Bravestofthebrave (USA) | 85-40 | ||
| 2nd | 5 Eyedoro (USA) | 13-8 | ||
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RACE 6
Southwell 15:25
jetbet.co.uk Free Betting Exchange Software Handicap
£2500.00 added, 3yo only, 5f, Class 6
..Not much happening here for me and not a race to get too heavily involved in , i think the LAY on LOWTHERWOOD is probably the best bet.
RESULT:
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| 1st | 6 Drinmoy Lad (IRE) | 2-1 | ||
| 2nd | 1 Russian Bullet | 11-8 F | ||
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RACE 7
Southwell 15:55
Play Roulette At bluesq.com/casino Handicap
£2500.00 added, 4yo plus, 6f, Class 6
..BEACHWOOD BAY again has a low draw and will run a big race even with the penalty but this looks very tricky for a getting out stakes , tread carefully...5th
RESULT:
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| 1st | 2 Greenhead High | 5-1 | ||
| 2nd | 14 Gracie's Gift (IRE) | 16-1 | ||
| 3rd | 4 Mazovian (USA) | 9-1 | ||
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Right well thats Southwell covered and there are def' a few bets there for me , will see whats at Kempers before finalising all bets although a few are already on...
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KEMPTON
RACE 1
Kempton Park 16:15
32Red Handicap
£2250.00 added, 4yo plus, 6f, Class 7
..Tough race with so many out of form or just plain shit!!, i will side with LITTLE PERISHER ( EW ) here as its form is reliable, creditable and is better class than most of these and does have some CD winning form and i think at 14.5 is of interest , so i will split my stakes here , half at this price and half at bfsp , w/p.
RESULT :
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| 1st | 6 First Class | 3-1 F | ||
| 2nd | 4 My Best Man | 4-1 | ||
| 3rd | 2 Do More Business (IRE) | 9-2 | ||
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RACE 2
Kempton Park 16:45
32Red.com Handicap
£3500.00 added, 3yo only, 7f, Class 5
..An interesting race and as far as im concerned until march races like this are in my mind are still 2yr old races , so im looking at this as tho its a 2yr old nursery and with taht i make PEARL REBEL at 2.1 ( Evens ) far to low after just one run which was over shorter , yes it won well, yes it ran on but taking such short odds against horses that have varying levels of proven form is betting suicide and i would rather LAY than back at these skinny odds , win or lose its the only bet to consider, SILVER rated LAY.
RESULT :
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| 1st | 1 Pearl Rebel | 5-6 F | ||
| 2nd | 7 Tenbridge | 16-1 | ||
| 3rd | 8 Chambles | 7-1 | ||
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RACE 3
Kempton Park 17:15
32Red Casino Handicap
£3500.00 added, 4yo plus, 7f, Class 5
..TOURIST WIN and PLACE LAY as 1 of 2 things will happen here as it usually does imo , gets a decent break for a change , hunts em up and comes with a late surge and wins nicely or will blow start and leave itself too much to do and will end up doing nothing , this rather a speculative bet tho and is not one in which i would go overboard on.
RESULT :
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| 1st | 1 April Fool | 10-3 JF | ||
| 2nd | 8 Katmai River (IRE) | 13-2 | ||
| 3rd | 3 Moral Issue | 13-2 | ||
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RACE 4
Kempton Park 17:45
32 Free At 32Red.com Handicap
£2500.00 added, 4yo plus, 2m, Class 6
.. A decent long distance hcap and in a field of 10 we have 8 that are either CD, C or D winners so very competitive but good fun and thats all this race really can be from a betting angle..fun , and the fun bet would be an EW DUTCH on Dream Catcher and Blue Cossack.
RESULT :
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| 1st | 8 Prince Charlemagne (IRE) | 25-1 | ||
| 2nd | 5 Bold Adventure | 7-2 F | ||
| 3rd | 10 Santera (IRE) | 9-2 | ||
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RACE 5
Kempton Park 18:15
32RedBet.com Handicap
£2500.00 added, 4yo plus, 1m 4f, Class 6CE 5..What a dogshit awful race , cba even applying any form of synopsis to this drizzle , Laconious EW would be the most tentative of tentative selections...urgh!!, next race please!!
RESULT :
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RACE 6
Kempton Park 18:45
32RedPoker.com Handicap
£6300.00 added, 4yo plus, 1m, Class 4
..In a tough race i like SUNSET KITTY but having just noticed the veracity of its price i wouldnt back it but strangely couldnt lay it either, Perfect Mission and Calypso Magic could both run decent races , but the former is taking a steep step up in grade and the latter is a constant dummy spitter , so i think i would probably just stay at the bar and get another drink if i was there...if i really had to have a bet here i would probably go for a Place only on Ocean Legend..
RESULT :
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RACE 7
Kempton Park 19:15
32RedBingo.com Handicap
£2500.00 added, 3yo only, 1m, Class 6
..This is all but name a 2yr old Maiden / Nursery and falls into my lap as the getting out stakes , and i will end the day with a GOLD rated LAY on SAMASANA this beast is at best a non trying plater and at worst..dog food!!, Max Lay Time!!...
RESULT :
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BETS CONCLUSION :1.MAX BET on the dutch in the first at Southwell.- 1st = Win
2.MAX LAY on the 2nd @ Southwell.- UNPLACED = WIN
3.MAX PLACE BACK on COMMUNITY in the 14:25 Southwell.4th = LOSS
4.MAX LAY on SAMASANA - Result = Unplaced = Win
These will be my main bets today, No Acca's or Exotics.
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Good day overall :-))
Sorted - 1255 was a fab race - love it when the winner comes from the back - did same as you with a dutch and added to my win/place/place bet for the 1245 at Catt - means I've got my 5%+ today. Not going to chase yesterday's losses instead going to go chill now and spend some time with Mrs G - still waiting......
ReplyDeleteExcellent mate, well done always good when you can get an early finish ;-) , i decided to look thru all the flats today and have had 4 main " wage bets " with a few nibbles , no Trebles or accas today but ive had a good solid start to the day.....Good luck mate and let us know when it all kicks off!!!!!!
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