Friday, 1 June 2012

Its the OAKS ;-)

Yes Indeed now the Classics are in full Swing with the Oaks today and the DERBY tomorrow , exciting times indeed and i feel im just hitting some form again at the right time as the Cards for both days look very competitive as you would expect.
Yesterday was a sparkling day on the back bet front with 2 placed and 4 winners including the finale at 10.0 which made for a very good day although tbh afternoon drinking ( i had a couple yesterday with an old friend ) really doesnt agree with me and i ended up with a mid/late afternoon hangover which made it harder work than i would have liked as everything seems an effort when your not 100%.
The country has at some stage been swathed in some well needed rain so all courses should be carrying a bit of juice which should make for proper and true racing conditions ( yay! ).
Nice to see the great Usain Bolt storming back to form and clocking the fastest time this year over 100m , he looks nailed on take the 100m crown at the Olympics and probably the 200m as well which takes better advantage of his giant stride.
Right back to todays racing and i will obviously be concentrating on Epsom and i think as its a special couple of days we heading into a full card is in order.

*****************************EPSOM OAKS****************************

RACE 1 
BACK - JOVIALITY - 2nd @ 6.88
EW - CLINICAL - 1st @ 8.99
OUTSIDER - BOASTFUL -
*A typically tough start with a 1m Class 1 Charge and the field is very strong , only 8 runners but not one can be entirely ruled out and form of both the straight and lateral types are abound.
Barefoot Lady left its fto 4th form behind when running better next time behind Izzi Top but that was over 1m2f and back over this 1m i feel she will again be found out.Laytime looked very progressive last year and went up 24 lbs in the process and will have to prove A) Shes has trained on, B)Shes fit and ready and C) She is upto racing in this better class fulltime...so still too many questions to answer maybe i feel.
Clinical was 3rd in this race last year and would have been well prepared for this by Sir Mark and is probably the best EW option with JOVIALITY looking like the winner albeit not without questions to answer but does look the sort that will come on with age and is not without ability.
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RACE 2
BACK - GATEWOOD - 1ST @ 3.70
EW - RESURGE -
OUTSIDER - PIVOTMAN -
*Tough looking Hcap next over 1m2f but there is an improver in this field that does interest me greatly and that is GATEWOOD who could easily improve past all of these, lightly raced and on the up this son of mega breeder Galileo will be very hard to beat in this and looks nailed on for a place.
Resurge is also worth great consideration having won this race last year on top of 2 other CD wins so obviously likes it here , and the only other one to cause my eyebrows to raise is Pivotman.
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RACE 3
BACK - WORTHADD ( NAP ) - ( 3rd ) Unplaced ( hit 1.18 )
EW - n/a
OUTSIDER - n/a
*Now its the Diomed stakes and a race full of What , If's and Maybe's....
I cannot make any semblance of a case for any of the runners here bar WORTHADD as they are all either out of form , unreliable , too old or rubbish where as Worthadd did at least win a group 3 in Germany lto and did it well so comes here in fine form and should be just good enough to nose in front.
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RACE 4
BACK - BOOGIE SHOES -
EW - PRINCE JOCK -
OUTSIDER - NORSE BLUES -
*Now we have arguably the toughest race of the day a 1m 17 runner ( paying top 4 ) Hcap with the top half split by not much more than a fag paper!...But i do like BOOGIE SHOES quite a lot and is also one from my tracker list and i do expect a big run from this today.
Prince Jock should also run well with Fallon and a low weight and i also like Norse Blues who is a previous course winner.
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RACE 5 Epsom Downs 16:05 
Investec Oaks (Fillies' Group 1)
£350000.00 added, 3yo only, 1m 4f 10y, Class 1
BACK - KAILANI -
EW - COCQUET -
OUTSIDER - TWIRL -
*A brilliant renewal of this excellent classic and this will be the first " proper " classic this season , full of proper race horses with full form and class.
The three Principals , The Fugue , Maybe and Vow are each superb and i cannot split them so i will take a more hopeful approach and look to take them on with 3 from the field...but which ones?...
Firstly Cocquet @ 28.0 is worth a look having won well over 1m2f lto and showed a good battling heart then we have Twirl who at 60.0 looks desperately in need of this step up in trip and seems to take ages to get fully wound up this could run a big race at a mega price and finally Kailani @ 11.5 which won well and rather easily fto and as the arabs are now finding some form i expect this to come on in leaps and bounds.
*Please note i do expect one of the market 3 to win and am only advising these to " play " against the favs.
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RACE 6
BACK - PRODUCER - 1st @ 3.26
EW - JUSTINEO - ( 3rd @ 4.30 )
OUTSIDER - BALTY BOYS - 2nd @ 4.20
*Now we step down to a more sedate small field C1 7f race where again none can be safely ruled out and this could be all about taking the % call, a good stat for this race is that the Fav has won 6 of the last 10 runnings how ever...the top three are 3.85, 3.85 and 4.0 so that really doesnt help...but what i will be doing is a massive dutch on these three at these prices....this looks like free money.
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RACE 7
BACK - FAMOUS POET -
EW - FIRE SHIP -
OUTSIDER - SHOLAAN -
*And Finally a tricky little Hcap as the getting out stakes and what a puzzle this looks, Fire Ship looks likely to be involved as this runs a genuine race and is a model of consistency , Famous Poet could be the class along with Sholaan and then there is the rapidly improving Laffan that has to give Famous Poet 10lb for a 41/2L beating last time out.....Very Interesting , FIRE SHIP in its last 5 races ( from a total of just 6 ) has won 2 and been 2nd 3 times beaten just a short head , 1.25L and a neck so all very close and i think i will be having some of the 10.5 EW money and lumping the place , Good Luck.
**Hahaha from the four i liked here the one i left out ( Laffan ) won at 9.76 ;-P
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